Sheldon: You seem to have missed several points.
Need reading glasses?
charlie hebdo Sheldon: In 1997. 52.8% of electricity in the US was generated from coal, in over 2000 plants. In 2018, coal's share was only 27.4% in only 359 plants. The reason? A switch to natural gas because of Adam Smith's theories. Moody's estimates the coal share will continue to decline to 11% by 2030. So when one of the rails' major revenue and profit sources shrinks to 1/5 in size in 30 years, a prudent management would search for new revenue streams.
Sheldon: In 1997. 52.8% of electricity in the US was generated from coal, in over 2000 plants. In 2018, coal's share was only 27.4% in only 359 plants. The reason? A switch to natural gas because of Adam Smith's theories. Moody's estimates the coal share will continue to decline to 11% by 2030. So when one of the rails' major revenue and profit sources shrinks to 1/5 in size in 30 years, a prudent management would search for new revenue streams.
Charlie, I know that, and that's a good thing in my mind, but that big coal plant here in Baltimore still chugs on.......
But I still don't see grain, plastic pellets, and a buch of other stuff moving in any real volume by truck.
And using coal or oil to generate electricity to charge up Tesla trucks just seems silly, knowing what I know about electricity and automobiles.........
I'm all for progress when it is real progress. Not using coal to make electricity would be real progress, not just from an environmental standpoint.
I think the ton/mile efficiency of railroads should be exploited more. And as I have made clear, I want less 80,000 lb tractor trailers on the highways - for multiple reasons.
Are the railroads poorly run? I would say yes, but that can change, just ask Adam Smith......
Sheldon
theman if every railroad shut down tommorow, trucks could make up the difference,
Russell
Spoken like a modern-day Luddite.
For those here who have never witnessed the BNSF southern transcon as it is adjacent to I-40 (or any similar RR paralelling a major interstate highway) you cannot imagine those thousands of loads being on the Interstate highway with you.
Creating statistics does not always recognize reallity.
Murphy Siding I disagree. Trains will always move lots of heavy stuff long distances. There will never be enough trucks in the country to make a dent in most of that business, or enough roads for them to travel over. Musk can keep saying Tesla's on the brink of a revolution, but what would you expect him to say? Somebody do the math and tell me how much it would cost for a fleet of trucks-Tesla or conventional- to haul 1 unit train of corn from Worthing SD to Seattle WA.
I disagree. Trains will always move lots of heavy stuff long distances. There will never be enough trucks in the country to make a dent in most of that business, or enough roads for them to travel over. Musk can keep saying Tesla's on the brink of a revolution, but what would you expect him to say? Somebody do the math and tell me how much it would cost for a fleet of trucks-Tesla or conventional- to haul 1 unit train of corn from Worthing SD to Seattle WA.
Agreed. I come from a family of truckers, trucks will never replace trains for bulk agricultural and manufacturing raw materials.
And much more could have been done, and still can be done, to get more of these 80,000 lb trucks on to flat cars for long distance moves.
The government screwed that up in 1950, they should do more now to correct their mistake.
I don't see self driving anything happening real soon.............
As for Tesla, until we make other changes, or solve other problems, the coal will still need to get to the power plant, to generate the electricity to charge the Tesla..........
Unless someone decides it is ok to build some more nuclear power plants?
I don't see where we are gaining anything there?
If, in 1950, the government had deregulated both rail and trucking, and had they held the line on trailer length and weight, everything long haul would travel by piggyback today, and the highways would be safer.
Most truckers are very safe drivers, but they can't control the stupid people in the little cars....... That makes even bigger trucks an even bigger problem.
35' trailers were well suited to urban streets and deliveries, 53' ones, not so much........
If his data is correct, 8% of heavy stuff is not a major player. As coal loses out to natural gas at power plants, that 8% will decline more. And the share of all freight is even less than 8% now. The rails are not actively seeking new business, just cost-cutting, which is a sign of a dying operation. I hope some creative folks step in and reverse this trend. But they wouldn't be welcomed by archaic rail management.
Thanks to Chris / CopCarSS for my avatar.
Now that the decade is over, and I have had some time to reflect, I have come to a very sober realisation. This may have been the last decade of railroading. Hear me out. As we move into the next decade, a few things jump out at me. The first is how unimportant railroads have become recent years. Rail currently has an 8% market share of freight movement by weight of shipments. 8%, that is it. Pipelines move more freight by weight than rail. If we were to factor in ton-mile share, it gets better, but it is still not great. The key takeaway here is that in terms of amount of goods moved each year, railroads have become irrelevant. It is not difficult to believe that if every railroad shut down tommorow, trucks could make up the difference, given an adjustment period. What is worse however, is that within this landscape of irrelevance and PSR-induced lack of growth, technology on the horizon aims to make rail completely obsolete. Autonomous electric trucks look to slash the cost of trucking dramatically, wiping out almost any purpose rail had. If the point of railroads was to save shippers money, why would anyone ship by rail if they could get affordable prices moving on trucks. The Tesla Semi, set to launch next year looks to be the harbinger of these changes. Elon Musk famously called the Tesla Semi "economic suicide for rail." As we wave the 2010s goodbye, it is becoming increasingly clear that we may have to wave the railroads goodbye as well. The future looks dark, very dark.
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