5 to 8 years ago, people were saying 3D printing and virtual reality are going to change everything by 2019. Today, when I go to Best Buy or other local tech stores, all of the VR stuff is tucked away on some out of the way shelf or you have a sales associate bring it out like in the case of 3D printing. Sure, some people use them but both are niche technologies.
About 15 years ago everyone was talking about peak oil and the need to invest in new coal power and even nuclear power. Today, fracking has created a glut of oil and natural gas in the US.
30 to 40 years ago, Trains Magazine was talking about the impending death of the railroads. Today, railroads are still around and financially healthy enough to spend on new capital projects.
My point is, it is impossible to tell what is going to be happening in the future.
MidlandMike Here is the modal share by ton-miles. 2017 latest data. TOTAL U.S. ton-miles of freight 5,084,101 Percent Air 14,417 0.28357 Truck 2,023,456 39.79968 Railroads 1,674,784 32.9416 Domestic water transportation 489,000 9.61822 Pipeline 882,444 17.35693 100 https://www.bts.gov/us-ton-miles-freight
Here is the modal share by ton-miles. 2017 latest data.
https://www.bts.gov/us-ton-miles-freight
So, railroads don't trail trucks by very much in the ton-miles department. Isn't this statistic significant? Why isn't this fact getting more traction in this thread?
This is not my area of expertise, for sure. But it would seem like ton-miles might be the best way to compare, regarding whether railroads have a future. In my view, railroads will be around for a very long time.
Thanks! Those data are no reason for optimism for rails' future growth. Most of what they carry is heavy bulk (including coal), lower-value goods in trainload mode.
York1 It would be helpful if we could compare railroad tonnage to only long-distance truck shipping.
Rio Grande Valley, CFI,CFII
I also question what the statistics really show.
Are the trucks' statistics only for long distance? How much of the total truck tonnage is done in cities, delivering goods, and moving products from building to building. My local grocery store has a semi in the back every single morning. This semi was loaded about 40 miles away.
It would be helpful if we could compare railroad tonnage to only long-distance truck shipping.
York1 John
PJS1 tree68 Coal for heating and electrical generation may be down, but there's still plenty of traffic on the rails. As Mark Twain said - "Rumors of my demise are greatly exaggerated." Coal moved by rail has been declining, but it is still a significant factor in railroad car loadings. For the week ended December 14th, YTD car loadings of coal totaled 3,867,685, which was down 8.8 percent from 2018. Most projections show that the use of coal to generate electric energy will continue to decline, which means there will be less of it for the rails to carry. But coal is not going to go away overnight. The electric utility industry and the railroad industry have time to adjust their operations for the anticipated changes.
tree68 Coal for heating and electrical generation may be down, but there's still plenty of traffic on the rails. As Mark Twain said - "Rumors of my demise are greatly exaggerated."
As Mark Twain said - "Rumors of my demise are greatly exaggerated."
Thanks to Chris / CopCarSS for my avatar.
[quote user="blue streak 1"] Now what growth of electricity can we expect? /quote]
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), as well as other grid operators, have sophisticated models to estimate the future demand for electric energy. They must get it right. Not having electric energy available when people want it is not an option.
Moreover, especially for the construction of a steam electric power station, planners need to project load requirements many years out. It takes a long time to build and license a steam electric power station.
The amount of time to build a wind or solar farm is less than a steam electric station, but it stills plenty of planning to bring them on line at the right time.
Enzoamps Those trucks are hauling lots of goods short distances. They haul tons of potatoes to McDonalds restaurants all over the country.
Agree! The comparative statistics for the longer hauls would show a different outcome for truck, rail, pipeline, etc., but I have not been able to find them in part because I am too lazy to look for them.
Thanks. So rail is not only a distant second in weight, a distant third or fourth in value. And finding new niches is something they avoid, even more now with PSR.
The main reason coal usage is down is not temporary decline in power demand. It's because natural gas is much cheaper and older coal-burning plants are being retired.
We may need to look at this whole thread in another way. Some coal plants are being mothballed. Are we posibility seeing just a temporary reduction in electricity demand or just a slowing of demand. If either is happening then what are the reasons ? Homes converting to CFLs and LEDs. More home heat pumps. Electricity useage per unit of work has reduced because of the many energy efficiency changes that have occurred ? Commuter rails in the east are still converting to regeneration.
Is that useage curve per unit of work starting to flatten out ? The one area that it soon will in my area is in lighting. One city close by is going wholesale replacement of street lighting with LED street lights. My village has to be more financially conservative by replacing street lights that burn out with LEDs. That will take longer but in 10 - 15 years be complete.
Now what growth of electricity can we expect? Have no real idea. However once homes finish converting to CFLs and LEDs additional built homes will mean more consumption. Amtrak and all its commuter partners are trying to increase service (Acela-2s for example ) so more consumption there once all the equipment is converted to regeneration. More commuter railss and more light rail. California is pushing electrification of many consumers that may encourage transfer to other states. Texas Central maybe just a blip but ? More manufacturing plans using robots for many functions.
EnzoampsI think the premise is flawed in the first post. 8% by weight means little out of context.
Exactly.
I think the premise is flawed in the first post. 8% by weight means little out of context. Those trucks are hauling lots of goods short distances. They haul tons of potatoes to McDonalds restaurants all over the country.. Trains cannot pull up to each fast food joint. We build Cadillacs and SUVs here in LAnsing. If 50 of them need to move 40 miles north, they don't find a train. Lots and lots of that freight traffic in no way competes with trains. But it sure does dilute that statistic.
The Andersons has a large grain elevator near here in Webberville. It DOES use the train. No one will replace a two mile long grain train with trucks. But that same grain weight was hauled to the elevator by local trucks. There is that context again.
Here is some 2017 freight by weight and value information from National Transportation Statistics, which is published by the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics.
charlie hebdoBalt: The big decline from 1997 to 2018 is a done deed; the 2030 figure is only an estimate/prediction from Moody's, but they are usually pretty accurate.
I am not talking about rail traffic, per se. If electricity is the 'over the road' fuel of transportation - how much additional electrical generating capacity will have to be built to satisfy the additional demand? With minor impact of EV's today, the relative impact is not much more that some individuals having electrical space heaters. When 'everybody' will be adding to the demand curve to satisfy their transportation needs - that demand curve is going to raise exponentially.
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
theman Now that the decade is over, and I have had some time to reflect, I have come to a very sober realisation. This may have been the last decade of railroading. Hear me out. As we move into the next decade, a few things jump out at me. The first is how unimportant railroads have become recent years. Rail currently has an 8% market share of freight movement by weight of shipments. 8%, that is it. Pipelines move more freight by weight than rail. If we were to factor in ton-mile share, it gets better, but it is still not great. The key takeaway here is that in terms of amount of goods moved each year, railroads have become irrelevant. It is not difficult to believe that if every railroad shut down tommorow, trucks could make up the difference, given an adjustment period. What is worse however, is that within this landscape of irrelevance and PSR-induced lack of growth, technology on the horizon aims to make rail completely obsolete. Autonomous electric trucks look to slash the cost of trucking dramatically, wiping out almost any purpose rail had. If the point of railroads was to save shippers money, why would anyone ship by rail if they could get affordable prices moving on trucks. The Tesla Semi, set to launch next year looks to be the harbinger of these changes. Elon Musk famously called the Tesla Semi "economic suicide for rail." As we wave the 2010s goodbye, it is becoming increasingly clear that we may have to wave the railroads goodbye as well. The future looks dark, very dark.
Now that the decade is over, and I have had some time to reflect, I have come to a very sober realisation. This may have been the last decade of railroading. Hear me out. As we move into the next decade, a few things jump out at me. The first is how unimportant railroads have become recent years. Rail currently has an 8% market share of freight movement by weight of shipments. 8%, that is it. Pipelines move more freight by weight than rail. If we were to factor in ton-mile share, it gets better, but it is still not great. The key takeaway here is that in terms of amount of goods moved each year, railroads have become irrelevant. It is not difficult to believe that if every railroad shut down tommorow, trucks could make up the difference, given an adjustment period. What is worse however, is that within this landscape of irrelevance and PSR-induced lack of growth, technology on the horizon aims to make rail completely obsolete. Autonomous electric trucks look to slash the cost of trucking dramatically, wiping out almost any purpose rail had. If the point of railroads was to save shippers money, why would anyone ship by rail if they could get affordable prices moving on trucks. The Tesla Semi, set to launch next year looks to be the harbinger of these changes. Elon Musk famously called the Tesla Semi "economic suicide for rail." As we wave the 2010s goodbye, it is becoming increasingly clear that we may have to wave the railroads goodbye as well. The future looks dark, very dark.
I find it hard to believe that our politicians, short-sighted though they may be, would allow all of those bulk commodities to be hauled on the highways. Our interstates are saturated with trucks as it is. At some point, they'll modify regulations or tax policy to change the economics and keep freight moving over the rails.
theman Rail currently has an 8% market share of freight movement by weight of shipments. 8%, that is it. Pipelines move more freight by weight than rail. If we were to factor in ton-mile share, it gets better, but it is still not great.
Rail currently has an 8% market share of freight movement by weight of shipments. 8%, that is it. Pipelines move more freight by weight than rail. If we were to factor in ton-mile share, it gets better, but it is still not great.
Freight is moved by:
air, ocean ship, river ship and barge, pipeline and truck.
How about breaking the "freight by weight" out for all of the above.
Then ton-miles.
Then value-miles.
Seems only fair. Get back to us on that, please.
Ed
I don't think the railroads are suddenly running out of things to move. All you have to do is look at train movements, and see that there is an astounding amount of raw materials moving every day. I don't think the future is as dark as some might think.
Balt: The big decline from 1997 to 2018 is a done deed; the 2030 figure is only an estimate/prediction from Moody's, but they are usually pretty accurate.
Typo. 2030.
charlie hebdoIn fact the use of coal in power plants has declined from over 50% to ~23% in 20 years and the prediction is it will be much less by 2020.
You really think a lot of change will occur during the next three and a half hours?
;-)
charlie hebdoMy point was that twice Sheldon said that electric vehicles are silly because the electricity comes from coal and oil. In fact the use of coal in power plants has declined from over 50% to ~23% in 20 years and the prediction is it will be much less by 2020.
I don't know the figures.
If, a big if, electrically powered cars were to totally replace fossil fueled vehicle - and the primary means of getting this electricty to the roads was from some form of stoage batteries - how much additional electrical capacity would have to be built into the nation's electrical grid to supply the electricity to recharge these batteries?
Yet, every day, some 50 trains pass through Deshler, Ohio. Coal is a small part of that traffic, and what coal does pass through there is usually met coal, likely headed for export.
Per a variety of sources, coal makes up 15-17% of railroads' revenue. That means 83-85% of the traffic takes other forms. Losing all of the coal traffic would take away ~17% of the revenue - and some similar portion of the costs of operation.
There are still unit trains of taconite, oil, phospate, ethanol, coke, grain - that I can think of.
Manifest trains usually run as long as the plant will let them - some over 12,000 feet.
Solid trains of auto racks (empty and loaded) come through daily. Fresh-from-the-mill steel also makes a regular (ie, daily) appearance, enroute to other mills for further processing.
And that doesn't even begin to address the container traffic seen there daily.
Coal for heating and electrical generation may be down, but there's still plenty of traffic on the rails.
And if/when the railroads finally discard PSR, maybe they'll get around to seeking out other such traffic, as well as recovering traffic they've lost, like the perishables from the west coast.
Larry Resident Microferroequinologist (at least at my house) Everyone goes home; Safety begins with you My Opinion. Standard Disclaimers Apply. No Expiration Date Come ride the rails with me! There's one thing about humility - the moment you think you've got it, you've lost it...
ATLANTIC CENTRAL charlie hebdo Sheldon: You seem to have missed several points. Need reading glasses? Charlie, I'm done, I have much more important stuff to do....... Maybe one day we can all be as smart as you....... But I doubt it. Sheldon
charlie hebdo Sheldon: You seem to have missed several points. Need reading glasses?
Sheldon: You seem to have missed several points.
Need reading glasses?
Charlie, I'm done, I have much more important stuff to do.......
Maybe one day we can all be as smart as you.......
But I doubt it.
Sheldon
My point was that twice Sheldon said that electric vehicles are silly because the electricity comes from coal and oil. In fact the use of coal in power plants has declined from over 50% to ~23% in 20 years and the prediction is it will be much less by 2020.
So Sheldon, try to absorb that between your self-promoting posts about your business, which I think is in violation of forum rules. Years ago Hank got banished for promoting his rail excursions, AFAIR.
My two cents is that while I have concerns that you are right, I think your time frame is too pessimistic I think they will still be in business in ten years but will still be shrinking. I see the current spin off of branches a sign that like a tree, that is not watered, it sheds leaves to match the food & water supply. I do not believe many short lines are able to reinvest in their facilities and when the track needs restoration to class 1 (10 mph) they don't have the retained earnings to reinvest in the plant. Or if a bridge gete damaged or a flood washes out the track, they fold. And each time that happens, the Class 1's loose more of their sustenance.
When I look at maps of railroads in the midwest, I note the large number of rail ROW's that are no longer in existance. The remaining majors are concentrating their traffic on the fewer remaing ROW's but the amount of the country that doen't have a Class 1 line near the population centers is growing. If you want to site an Auto Plant or other large manufacturing plant that needs significant transportation assests, the choices are getting more limited. I was a little suprised that Honda was able to get the former NYC ROW between Cincinnati & Indianapolis now operated by IORy to meet their needs. Greensburg IN got a nice plant and a nice seven track vehicle loading yard was built. As well as a small engine servie facility and a five track yard for car handling. But from looking at the map, it looks like all the traffic is taken to Cincinnati and the track West of Greensburg is used for car storage. This used to be a busy line with multiple freight trains and six daily passenger trains back in the fifties.
When you look at states like Michigan and New York, you can see large areas with no rail service where it had been.
So your premise that RR's are dying has some justification. How the time line works out remains to be seen.
charlie hebdo Murphy Siding I disagree. Trains will always move lots of heavy stuff long distances. There will never be enough trucks in the country to make a dent in most of that business, or enough roads for them to travel over. Musk can keep saying Tesla's on the brink of a revolution, but what would you expect him to say? Somebody do the math and tell me how much it would cost for a fleet of trucks-Tesla or conventional- to haul 1 unit train of corn from Worthing SD to Seattle WA. If his data is correct, 8% of heavy stuff is not a major player. As coal loses out to natural gas at power plants, that 8% will decline more. And the share of all freight is even less than 8% now. The rails are not actively seeking new business, just cost-cutting, which is a sign of a dying operation. I hope some creative folks step in and reverse this trend. But they wouldn't be welcomed by archaic rail management.
Murphy Siding I disagree. Trains will always move lots of heavy stuff long distances. There will never be enough trucks in the country to make a dent in most of that business, or enough roads for them to travel over. Musk can keep saying Tesla's on the brink of a revolution, but what would you expect him to say? Somebody do the math and tell me how much it would cost for a fleet of trucks-Tesla or conventional- to haul 1 unit train of corn from Worthing SD to Seattle WA.
I disagree. Trains will always move lots of heavy stuff long distances. There will never be enough trucks in the country to make a dent in most of that business, or enough roads for them to travel over. Musk can keep saying Tesla's on the brink of a revolution, but what would you expect him to say? Somebody do the math and tell me how much it would cost for a fleet of trucks-Tesla or conventional- to haul 1 unit train of corn from Worthing SD to Seattle WA.
If his data is correct, 8% of heavy stuff is not a major player. As coal loses out to natural gas at power plants, that 8% will decline more. And the share of all freight is even less than 8% now. The rails are not actively seeking new business, just cost-cutting, which is a sign of a dying operation. I hope some creative folks step in and reverse this trend. But they wouldn't be welcomed by archaic rail management.
Actually, it's just part of the railroad industry that isn't seeking new business. Agreed, a large and visible part - most of the class one carriers.
Even that isn't totally true. They seek new business, as long as it meets their criteria. That is, business that doesn't cost too much to handle. That would be mostly certain types of intermodal business. Clearly, they could grow if they wanted to. And some of the early PSR practicioners have dumped some, but not all of the PSR tenents, and realized they need to grow. Ultimately, you reach a point when you can't cut anymore.
Thank God for the short lines and regionals that do go after business with less stringent criteria.
Jeff
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