Trains.com

Mantle Ridge sells most of its stake in CSX

4593 views
45 replies
1 rating 2 rating 3 rating 4 rating 5 rating
  • Member since
    December 2001
  • 1,486 posts
Mantle Ridge sells most of its stake in CSX
Posted by Victrola1 on Tuesday, October 22, 2019 3:01 PM

"Mantle Ridge LP, the investment vehicle of Paul Hilal, has sold off nearly all of its $1 billion position in CSX, the newspaper reported based on filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. CSX bought back about 4.7 million shares."

https://www.progressiverailroading.com/csx_transportation/news/Mantle-Ridge-sells-most-of-its-stake-in-CSX--58888

Why is Mantle Ridge selling? 

  • Member since
    December 2001
  • From: Denver / La Junta
  • 10,820 posts
Posted by mudchicken on Tuesday, October 22, 2019 3:40 PM

Typical vulture capital investor. Take the money & run. Pick the carcas clean and sneak out under the cloak of darkness when the victim dies so you are not associated with it's demise. Find new victim.

The 60% operating ratio is a charade and won't be sustained.(CSX's future was sold to satisfy a present day vulture Gordon Gecko)

Mudchicken Nothing is worth taking the risk of losing a life over. Come home tonight in the same condition that you left home this morning in. Safety begins with ME.... cinscocom-west
  • Member since
    May 2003
  • From: US
  • 25,292 posts
Posted by BaltACD on Tuesday, October 22, 2019 5:48 PM

Saw it coming the day they bought in!  Sell everything, hoover the proceeds to Mantle Ridge.

Never too old to have a happy childhood!

              

  • Member since
    April 2007
  • 4,557 posts
Posted by Convicted One on Tuesday, October 22, 2019 6:23 PM

Out of all the "traditional" stockholders who owned CSX stock prior to the Mantle Ridge involvement, I wonder how many of them chose to cash-in  versus holding on to the stock to see  what lies across the abyss?

  • Member since
    December 2018
  • 865 posts
Posted by JPS1 on Tuesday, October 22, 2019 6:39 PM

Victrola1
 Why is Mantle Ridge selling? 

Probably because they have achieved their investment objective.  But only they can say for sure.

Clearly, Mantle Ridge benefited from its investment in CSX. 
 
Just prior to the recent unwinding of its position, it held 4.77 percent of CSX’s common shares.  It was behind Vanguard, Capital World Investors, Blackrock, Inc., and Capital Research Global Investors in percentage of shares owned.  The number of shares owned by Mantle Ridge was approximately 60 percent of the number of shares owned by Vanguard.
 
Mantle Ridge was not the only investor that realized a gain from its investment in CSX.  Institutional investors hold 52.9 percent of the common shares outstanding.  Mutual Funds hold 25.6 percent of the shares, followed by other at 21.2 percent and insiders – executives, key employees, etc., at .3 percent.
 
Institutional investors include pension funds, university endowment funds, etc.  Mutual funds cover the water front. 
 
If you are retired or work for an entity that has a defined pension plan or have an employer sponsored 401(k), and they have invested in CSX common, you too have benefit from the accretion in the value of CSX common shares.  If you are invested a mutual fund, chances are it too holds CSX stock and has realized the same gains as Mantle Ridge.
 
Between January 2, 2015 and October 21, 2019, the market value of CSX’s common shares increased 69.75 percent.  Mantle Ridge realized a good return on its investment.  So too did anyone invested directly or indirectly in the aforementioned investment vehicles. 
  • Member since
    May 2003
  • From: US
  • 25,292 posts
Posted by BaltACD on Tuesday, October 22, 2019 7:37 PM

JPS1
Between January 2, 2015 and October 21, 2019, the market value of CSX’s common shares increased 69.75 percent.  Mantle Ridge realized a good return on its investment.  So too did anyone invested directly or indirectly in the aforementioned investment vehicles. 

Mantle Ridge did not get EHH installed until March 1, 2017 - Jan. 1 2015 to Feb. 28 2017 was on Michael Ward's watch.

Never too old to have a happy childhood!

              

  • Member since
    December 2018
  • 865 posts
Posted by JPS1 on Tuesday, October 22, 2019 9:03 PM

BaltACD
 Between January 2, 2015 and October 21, 2019, the market value of CSX’s common shares increased 69.75 percent.  Mantle Ridge realized a good return on its investment.  So too did anyone invested directly or indirectly in the aforementioned investment vehicles.  

 

Mantle Ridge did not get EHH installed until March 1, 2017 - Jan. 1 2015 to Feb. 28 2017 was on Michael Ward's watch. 

That was not my primary point. 

Mantle Ridge's was not the only investor in CSX that did well.  Some of the posters on Train's forums seem to think that Mantle Ridge ripped off CSX to the detriment of the other shareholders and then ran.  That is not what the numbers show.

During the period Mantle Ridge was a minority shareholder, the stock price increased approximately 43 percent.  A good return!  For every investor!

  • Member since
    February 2003
  • From: Guelph, Ontario
  • 4,819 posts
Posted by Ulrich on Tuesday, October 22, 2019 10:24 PM

JPS1

 

 
BaltACD
 Between January 2, 2015 and October 21, 2019, the market value of CSX’s common shares increased 69.75 percent.  Mantle Ridge realized a good return on its investment.  So too did anyone invested directly or indirectly in the aforementioned investment vehicles.  

 

Mantle Ridge did not get EHH installed until March 1, 2017 - Jan. 1 2015 to Feb. 28 2017 was on Michael Ward's watch. 

 

That was not my primary point. 

Mantle Ridge's was not the only investor in CSX that did well.  Some of the posters on Train's forums seem to think that Mantle Ridge ripped off CSX to the detriment of the other shareholders and then ran.  That is not what the numbers show.

During the period Mantle Ridge was a minority shareholder, the stock price increased approximately 43 percent.  A good return!  For every investor!

 

Right on.. my CSX shares went up too..

  • Member since
    May 2003
  • From: US
  • 25,292 posts
Posted by BaltACD on Tuesday, October 22, 2019 11:10 PM

JPS1
 
BaltACD
 Between January 2, 2015 and October 21, 2019, the market value of CSX’s common shares increased 69.75 percent.  Mantle Ridge realized a good return on its investment.  So too did anyone invested directly or indirectly in the aforementioned investment vehicles.   

Mantle Ridge did not get EHH installed until March 1, 2017 - Jan. 1 2015 to Feb. 28 2017 was on Michael Ward's watch.

 

That was not my primary point.

Mantle Ridge's was not the only investor in CSX that did well.  Some of the posters on Train's forums seem to think that Mantle Ridge ripped off CSX to the detriment of the other shareholders and then ran.  That is not what the numbers show.

During the period Mantle Ridge was a minority shareholder, the stock price increased approximately 43 percent.  A good return!  For every investor!

Primary point or not - Mantle Ridge was the announced vulture capitalist investor - 'gaining contro' with less than 5% of the shares.

Never too old to have a happy childhood!

              

  • Member since
    June 2002
  • 20,096 posts
Posted by daveklepper on Wednesday, October 23, 2019 1:38 AM

Investors were not "ripped off."  But what about some employees, some passengers on the Silver Comet, and some customers?

  • Member since
    March 2016
  • From: Burbank IL (near Clearing)
  • 13,540 posts
Posted by CSSHEGEWISCH on Wednesday, October 23, 2019 7:04 AM

Short-term speculators may have obtained a nice return on their stock, but what happens in the long term when a capital-intensive business is denied the required capital to grow the business?

The daily commute is part of everyday life but I get two rides a day out of it. Paul
  • Member since
    December 2001
  • From: Northern New York
  • 25,021 posts
Posted by tree68 on Wednesday, October 23, 2019 7:06 AM

CSSHEGEWISCH
Short-term speculators may have obtained a nice return on their stock, but what happens in the long term when a capital-intensive business is denied the required capital to grow the business?

Who cares?  "I" got my money...

LarryWhistling
Resident Microferroequinologist (at least at my house) 
Everyone goes home; Safety begins with you
My Opinion. Standard Disclaimers Apply. No Expiration Date
Come ride the rails with me!
There's one thing about humility - the moment you think you've got it, you've lost it...

  • Member since
    February 2003
  • From: Guelph, Ontario
  • 4,819 posts
Posted by Ulrich on Wednesday, October 23, 2019 7:51 AM

Activist investors can provide a huge benefit to a business although whether Mantle Ridge in particular was a positive benefit to CSX remains debatable. Imagine the alternative: Most investors are passive and care so little they don't vote or even read the reports... they effectively allow management to do whatever they want. Personally I'd prefer someone with a large block of shares who takes an active interest in the business.

And Mantle Ridge got their money from other people who bought their shares.. not from CSX.. CSX didn't lose anything when Mantle Ridge bought low and sold high. 

  • Member since
    September 2003
  • 21,669 posts
Posted by Overmod on Wednesday, October 23, 2019 8:02 AM

CSSHEGEWISCH
what happens in the long term when a capital-intensive business is denied the required capital to grow the business?

There's an old adage:  "The men who manage men manage the men who manage things ... and the men who manage money manage the men who manage men."

So long as that priority is true, expect people like Paul Hilal to have enthusiasm for railroads but not the railroad business... and the tyranny of three-month predictions to continue to ruin practical operations.

  • Member since
    April 2007
  • 4,557 posts
Posted by Convicted One on Wednesday, October 23, 2019 9:30 AM

tree68
Who cares?  "I" got my money...

I'm thinking that Mantle Ridge chose to exit when they did in anticipation that the political climate is about to change in ways that are not kind to energy intensive businesses. With the oil producing countries at each others throats, the middle east could soon become a crucible. 

  • Member since
    August 2004
  • From: The 17th hole at TPC
  • 2,283 posts
Posted by n012944 on Wednesday, October 23, 2019 12:23 PM

daveklepper

Investors were not "ripped off."  But what about some employees, some passengers on the Silver Comet, and some customers?

 

What is the Silver Comet?

An "expensive model collector"

  • Member since
    June 2002
  • 20,096 posts
Posted by daveklepper on Wednesday, October 23, 2019 12:40 PM

An Amtrak train.  On onr run, it plowed into a freight on a siding because of a failure of a freight crew member to realign a switch, although he thought he had done so.

The automatic block signal that would have alerted the engineer with more than sufficient stopping distancer was disabled a week earlier to make installation of PTS easier.

I brlieve that prior to HH's arrival (One thing he did (which I assume has since been reversed) was remove the three-step safety requirements before doing work under or between locomotives and cars and other locomotives and cars on any train.) the traditional safety culture would have meant either the ATS system would somehow have continued operable up to the hour that the PTS system was made operable, or additional safety measures, even a slow order if necessary, would have prevented the accident.  His removable of the traditional three-step process indicates to me that he never really understood how a safety culture should be maintained.  I am not saying he did not put "Safety First."  I am saying he did not fully understand how to fully implement that priority.  And I am not saying that I do either.  But I do thing Ward did.  Like Ice, Krebs, Barriger, even Pearlman.  I did know how to put Safety First when acting as Dispatcher at Shore Line Trolley, specific for that operation.

  • Member since
    September 2003
  • 21,669 posts
Posted by Overmod on Wednesday, October 23, 2019 12:53 PM

I wouldn't equate EHH's termination of formal three-step (we still, to my knowledge, didn't find what it was replaced with for the critical job of 'securing' equipment being worked on from moving) with incorrect observation of switch discipline ... which is the specific 'smoking gun' that would exist for the Cayce accident.

I don't think any 'safety culture' that produced those two effectively knotheaded CSX guys was anything originating with EHH.  That was a comedy of errors that might well be traceable back to their training ... and hiring ... and vetting.  I'm effectively a layman and even I know you never leave a facing-point switch open to live rail.  (Whether or not you think to yourself 'the signal system will catch it if I forget' or whatever...)

Especially if SOP is not to run, as Joe and the New Haven did by default, at speed restricted enough to stop short of any given facing-point switch under conditions of 'no warning'.

  • Member since
    January 2002
  • From: Canterlot
  • 9,575 posts
Posted by zugmann on Wednesday, October 23, 2019 1:01 PM

Overmod
and hiring ... and vetting. I'm effectively a layman and even I know you never leave a facing-point switch open to live rail. (Whether or not you think to yourself 'the signal system will catch it if I forget' or whatever...)

Almost like those people are humans, and probably humans being treated like crap with horrible schedules that can make a mistake.

 

Not excusing them, but also not treating them like the devil incarnate.  

It's been fun.  But it isn't much fun anymore.   Signing off for now. 


  

The opinions expressed here represent my own and not those of my employer, any other railroad, company, or person.t fun any

  • Member since
    August 2005
  • From: At the Crossroads of the West
  • 11,013 posts
Posted by Deggesty on Wednesday, October 23, 2019 1:24 PM

Dave, the Amtrak train that was diverted in South Carolina was the Silver Star. The only Silver Comet  that I know of was a Seaboard train that ran from New York to Birmingham, and was discontinued some time before Amtrak began operating.

Johnny

  • Member since
    June 2002
  • 20,096 posts
Posted by daveklepper on Wednesday, October 23, 2019 2:37 PM

Dislexia and age struck again.  Of course I should have known and remembered.  I rode all three of the Seaboard's "Silver" trains, beginning way before Amtrak, but the Silver Comet only once, the Meteor and Star several times.

But there should have been more protection against human error once a safety system that worked beautifully for years is disabled.  And that was HH's responsibility.

  • Member since
    December 2001
  • 1,486 posts
Posted by Victrola1 on Wednesday, October 23, 2019 2:58 PM

Did Mantle Ridge sell out for a quick profit, or did Mantle Ridge jump to avoid being part of a train wreck? 

  • Member since
    December 2001
  • From: Northern New York
  • 25,021 posts
Posted by tree68 on Wednesday, October 23, 2019 3:01 PM

Ulrich
And Mantle Ridge got their money from other people who bought their shares.. not from CSX.. CSX didn't lose anything when Mantle Ridge bought low and sold high. 

Whether CSX lost anything remains to be seen.  If previous EHH victims are any indication, a number of "his" actions will be reversed.  Some already have been.

IMHO, the "activist" investor wants his gains now.  Folks who are investing for the future (ie, retirement funds) want long-term growth so they can enjoy the rewards down the road.

If CSX stocks remain high, great.  If not...

LarryWhistling
Resident Microferroequinologist (at least at my house) 
Everyone goes home; Safety begins with you
My Opinion. Standard Disclaimers Apply. No Expiration Date
Come ride the rails with me!
There's one thing about humility - the moment you think you've got it, you've lost it...

  • Member since
    January 2001
  • From: MP CF161.6 NS's New Castle District in NE Indiana
  • 2,148 posts
Posted by rrnut282 on Wednesday, October 23, 2019 4:27 PM

Many CSX stockholders should be pondering, "sell or let it ride?" at this point.  I know I am struggling with that question. 

Mike (2-8-2)
  • Member since
    August 2004
  • From: The 17th hole at TPC
  • 2,283 posts
Posted by n012944 on Thursday, October 24, 2019 10:27 AM

daveklepper

But there should have been more protection against human error once a safety system that worked beautifully for years is disabled.  And that was HH's responsibility.

 

 

I disagree.  It was a signal suspension, something that is not unheard of. People are expected to do their jobs properly.   It is also hard to place responsibility on someone who had been dead for 2 months when the accident happened.

An "expensive model collector"

  • Member since
    June 2002
  • 20,096 posts
Posted by daveklepper on Thursday, October 24, 2019 11:04 AM

You can disagree all you want.  The normal practise on the Boston and Maine when I was for a short period an active railroader was that a signal suspension resulted in a lowering of maximum track speed to that permitted in "Dark Territory," which was considerably lower than signalled terrirtory."  This affected oassenger trains more than freight.

 

  • Member since
    September 2003
  • 21,669 posts
Posted by Overmod on Thursday, October 24, 2019 11:21 AM

daveklepper
You can disagree all you want.  The normal practice on the Boston and Maine when I was for a short period an active railroader was that a signal suspension resulted in a lowering of maximum track speed to that permitted in "Dark Territory," which was considerably lower than signalled territory.

If I remember correctly, this was precisely how operations were being conducted on the section in question: we had some discussion about exactly how CSX interpreted 'dark territory' and how some of those details were changed when EHH started to work his magic.

One very important principal difference was that the CSX requirements didn't involve the part of 'restricted speed' that includes stopping in half the distance to a mistakenly-aligned switch.  You will remember that Joe's New Haven explicitly included this, as I recall either for dark territory or for signal failures.

The Amtrak train at Cayce was permitted only 59mph, as I recall, and had to be authorized to 'own the railroad' in order to reach that speed.  Problem was, it was authorized to own the railroad, but there were buffoons involved.  We had discussions up, down, and sideways about "safety" vs. the need to get traffic even a little expediently over the road in the affected sections ... which wouldn't have happened if true restricted speed had been imposed.

If I recall correctly, CSX dark-territory rules before the advent of EHH didn't require restriction to stop before each facing-point switch, so it might be misguided to pin Cayce on him.

  • Member since
    August 2004
  • From: The 17th hole at TPC
  • 2,283 posts
Posted by n012944 on Thursday, October 24, 2019 1:18 PM

daveklepper

You can disagree all you want.  The normal practise on the Boston and Maine when I was for a short period an active railroader was that a signal suspension resulted in a lowering of maximum track speed to that permitted in "Dark Territory," which was considerably lower than signalled terrirtory."  This affected oassenger trains more than freight.

 

 

 

That is the law, and was done in Cayce.  

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rail_speed_limits_in_the_United_States#Signal_speeds

"Federal regulators limit the speed of trains with respect to the signaling method used.[1] Passenger trains are limited to 59 mph and freight trains to 49 mph on track without block signal systems."

An "expensive model collector"

  • Member since
    April 2007
  • 4,557 posts
Posted by Convicted One on Saturday, October 26, 2019 10:09 AM

rrnut282
Many CSX stockholders should be pondering, "sell or let it ride?" at this point.  I know I am struggling with that question. 

The article mentions that CSX  itself bought a significant chunk of Mantle Ridge's holdings.  That itself might indicate that the market would not support the list price. You might find there is a shortage of willing buyers right now. Call your broker and see what he says.

  • Member since
    December 2018
  • 865 posts
Posted by JPS1 on Saturday, October 26, 2019 3:33 PM

rrnut282
 Many CSX stockholders should be pondering, "sell or let it ride?" at this point.  I know I am struggling with that question. 

Of the 15 analysts covered by Investars that rated CSX in October, four rated the stock as a buy; three rated it as outperform; seven were neutral, and one said sell.  Sounds like the most agreed on opinion is to hold on to the shares but don’t increase the stake.
 
For my money, security analysts are about as accurate in predicting the future as economists, but it is a starting point.  
 
Peter Lynch, who has been with Fidelity Investments for more than 50 years, and gained fame in the investment community for his management of the Magellan Fund, has a great line about economists, which also applies to many security analysts.  According to Lynch, if you spend 13 minutes listing to an economist, you have wasted 10 minutes. 

Join our Community!

Our community is FREE to join. To participate you must either login or register for an account.

Search the Community

Newsletter Sign-Up

By signing up you may also receive occasional reader surveys and special offers from Trains magazine.Please view our privacy policy