Self-Driving Vehicles -- Are They that Great a Threat?

[Electroliner 1935]

Wonder what it does on slippery pavement (ice, and snow), fog, and other things. Could it be hikjacked by cars boxing it in and the load being taken? If a car cuts in front of it and slams on the brakes, what does it do? As in Candide's best of all possible worlds, it is wonderful but S**t happens and can the programers forsee everything? 

[RME]

jeffhergert

We won't need any dedicated highways.  The self-driving trucks will have them all to themselves.  Why?  Because we will all be using flying cars, eventually pilot-less to boot.

 http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/news/2016/10/28/uber-looks-flying-cars-next-big-shift/92878568/

Actually, it's much easier to build an autonomous flying car than an autonomous driving one, and has been (even net of near-all-weather flying) for quite a few years.  The principal issue is cost, not feasibility.  Relatively much more power needed to run one, continuous proof of rigorous maintenance, structure with multiple redundancy, and appropriate safeguards and knowledge about flight in what amount to light aircraft (don't forget the specific ignorance that killed John Kennedy, Jr.).

But the biggest single reason for 'no flying cars' to date -- the inability to do even a remote approximation of safe separation at all times, or non-confrontational traffic queuing -- goes away when you have autonomous piloting within a controlled information environment.  The need for onboard emergency piloting 'skills' collapses to little more than careful firing of a BRS-style emergency system in the right place, and shock management down to where the motion stops, so you don't give up nearly the oh-crap surprise need for immediate human oversight you do on the highway...

[rdamon]

Uber’s Self-Driving Truck Makes Its First Delivery: 50,000 Beers

https://www.wired.com/2016/10/ubers-self-driving-truck-makes-first-delivery-50000-beers/

I would have to give this ..

[BaltACD]

jeffhergert

We won't need any dedicated highways.  The self-driving trucks will have them all to themselves.  Why?  Because we will all be using flying cars, eventually pilot-less to boot.

 http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/news/2016/10/28/uber-looks-flying-cars-next-big-shift/92878568/

Jeff

George Jetson is that you?  Will Spacely Sprockets get to bid on these?

[jeffhergert]

We won't need any dedicated highways.  The self-driving trucks will have them all to themselves.  Why?  Because we will all be using flying cars, eventually pilot-less to boot.

 http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/news/2016/10/28/uber-looks-flying-cars-next-big-shift/92878568/

Jeff

 

[Euclid]

zugmann

 

Euclid

Or how about just cars and trucks, some robotic, and some human-driven; and all interacting on today's roads and highways with 100% safety? Now you have to admit that's practical.

 

 

Because the human-driven only cars interact with 100% safety?  I don't understand why people think an improvement must be 100% perfect to be viable.  If that's the case we might as well stop inventing things and go home today.  But that seems un-american somehow.

 

Of course nobody can guarantee 100%, so I only mention it as the objective.  But it is one of the widely promoted justifications for self-driving cars along with reducing highway congestion and saving the planet.  Sources say it could be up to 90% reduction in deaths by highway accidents.  My point is that it will never happen if we have a mix of self-driving cars and truck and manually driven cars and trucks on today’s road concepts.  This is the true pie in the sky, Jetsons nonsense.

My idea of automatic trucks on their own roadways would be a walk in the woods by comparison.  And it would be very profitable to satisfy all of you “Who’s going to pay for it?” types.  This is actually a highly realistic idea that will serve a very large demand. 

[Semper Vaporo]

schlimm

 Semper Vaporo

When the interstate system was first proposed, the impetus was to provide a rapid escape route from cities in the event of nuclear attack. Then there was concern that all this concrete and infrastructure would just go to waste if there were never any attacks.  So it was decided that they would be used by trucks ONLY for transport of good and services.  The general public in automobiles would be excluded!

 Source for your "theory?"

I cite: Family discussions around the supper table in the mid to late 1950's.

Are you trying to call into question my Father's impeccable integrity?

If you do, I may just revert to the mentality of that era and say something like, "So's your ol' lady", or "EH!  Yer Mutha wears combat boots!"

Actually, (but, I have no proof of this) I'd much rather this not be a school yard fight, but instead just be a polite discussion by many different individuals who bring different viewpoints and experiences.  If you disagree with what I write, you may state that you don't believe me and, if you wish, offer your own "theory" and cite what you "know" or what your dearly beloved Mother told you; I will read it and either agree or disagree with you, but please remove the chip from your shoulder, I ain't a gonna take a swipe at it.

 

[zugmann]

Euclid

Or how about just cars and trucks, some robotic, and some human-driven; and all interacting on today's roads and highways with 100% safety? Now you have to admit that's practical.

Because the human-driven only cars interact with 100% safety?  I don't understand why people think an improvement must be 100% perfect to be viable.  If that's the case we might as well stop inventing things and go home today.  But that seems un-american somehow.

[zugmann]

schlimm

So source = The Euclid Society.

I guess when you cite yourself as a source you at least can't be accused of making it up. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

[schlimm]

Euclid

 

 

schlimm

 

Euclid

There is no way on earth that the present railroad industry will venture into this area.  It is an entirely new business.  

 

Source?

 

 

It is just self-evident if you consider what I said with my entire context, which was:

I see the specialized roadway dedicated to driverless trucks as a new type of “railroad”.  It is a railroad where virtual rails and flanges replace the steel rails and flanges.  Unlike steel railroads, this new “Smart Highway” will be able to operate individual vehicles at very high densities, with pickup and delivery directly to any customer, no matter what the haul distance is.   

There is no way on earth that the present railroad industry will venture into this area.  It is an entirely new business. 

***************************************************

When I say that the railroads will not venture into this, I mean venture into a robotic, on-demand, dock-to-dock, just-in-time, any-size-load type of service with nimble, single unit rail vehicles. 

As you suggested earlier, it would be easier to automate the railroads because trains are already self-guiding, and self-guidance is the greatest challenge to automated highway vehicles.  However, everything about the new kind of freight service that I refer to above is everything that the railroads are not. 

Although the railroads may automate someday too, the similarity ends there.  They will continue to haul monster trainloads of bulk material on a non-time-sensitive basis.  But it is trucking that will evolve into this new, quick/nimble, vending machine-like transportation service with robotic vehicles.  It is a natural development of self-driving vehicles running on roads and highways. 

 

So source = The Euclid Society.

[Euclid]

Norm48327

 

Euclid

predict that these new automated road freight lines will be public sector because the concept begins with the existing road system, and that is government owned. The new automatic roadway will be based on existing roads, but with a vast overlay of new technology in the fixed infrastructure as well as the vehicles. I suspect that all of that new systems technology, including many of the vehicles, will be government owned and operated. But that does not mean that it will be a free ride for users and thus unfair to the railroads which must self-finance. Just like today’s roads, the new automatic road system will be user financed. It will be sort of like an open access railroad with virtual rails and flanges.

 

 

Keep trying, Ron. I see the wheels spinning but no forward progress. Now, if you'd care to predict something practical........

 

 

Well let's see... something practical.  Oh I know.  How about predicting a bad climate 100 years from now and what we will do to prevent it?  Or how about just cars and trucks, some robotic, and some human-driven; and all interacting on today's roads and highways with 100% safety?  Now you have to admit that's practical.

[schlimm]

Semper Vaporo

When the interstate system was first proposed, the impetus was to provide a rapid escape route from cities in the event of nuclear attack. Then there was concern that all this concrete and infrastructure would just go to waste if there were never any attacks.  So it was decided that they would be used by trucks ONLY for transport of good and services.  The general public in automobiles would be excluded!

Source for your "theory?"

[Norm48327]

Euclid

predict that these new automated road freight lines will be public sector because the concept begins with the existing road system, and that is government owned. The new automatic roadway will be based on existing roads, but with a vast overlay of new technology in the fixed infrastructure as well as the vehicles. I suspect that all of that new systems technology, including many of the vehicles, will be government owned and operated. But that does not mean that it will be a free ride for users and thus unfair to the railroads which must self-finance. Just like today’s roads, the new automatic road system will be user financed. It will be sort of like an open access railroad with virtual rails and flanges.

Keep trying, Ron. I see the wheels spinning but no forward progress. Now, if you'd care to predict something practical........

 

[Euclid]

 

Norm48327

I see in a previous post you suggested the government might/should pay for such a roadway. Given that the railroads have to invest in and pay for the maintenance of their rights of way wouldn't you think it only fair that the trucking industry do the same?

 

I predict that these new automated road freight lines will be public sector because the concept begins with the existing road system, and that is government owned. The new automatic roadway will be based on existing roads, but with a vast overlay of new technology in the fixed infrastructure as well as the vehicles.  I suspect that all of that new systems technology, including many of the vehicles, will be government owned and operated.

But that does not mean that it will be a free ride for users and thus unfair to the railroads which must self-finance.  Just like today’s roads, the new automatic road system will be user financed.  It will be sort of like an open access railroad with virtual rails and flanges. 

[Norm48327]

Euclid

I see the specialized roadway dedicated to driverless trucks as a new type of “railroad”. It is a railroad where virtual rails and flanges replace the steel rails and flanges. Unlike steel railroads, this new “Smart Highway” will be able to operate individual vehicles at very high densities, with pickup and delivery directly to any customer, no matter what the haul distance is. There is no way on earth that the present railroad industry will venture into this area. It is an entirely new business.

I see in a previous post you suggested the government might/should pay for such a roadway. Given that the railroads have to invest in and pay for the maintenance of their rights of way wouldn't you think it only fair that the trucking industry do the same? Governmment construction and maintenance of those roads would put other forms of transportation at a serious disadvantage.

Utopian ideas may sound good on paper but are not always practical or financially sound. I can also already hear the NIMBY's screaming about the elevated roadways.

[samfp1943]

Semper Vaporo

When the interstate system was first proposed, the impetus was to provide a rapid escape route from cities in the event of nuclear attack.

Here in PDF is a copy of The

National Defense and the U.S. Interstate Highway Act of 1956 

see linked @ www.ijbhtnet.com/journals/Vol_4_No_4_July_2014/7.pdf

 

[ IT is an interesting 'read' takes one back to the Post Korean times,

and during the Cold War period.]

 

Then there was concern that all this concrete and infrastructure would just go to waste if there were never any attacks.  So it was decided that they would be used by trucks ONLY for transport of good and services.  The general public in automobiles would be excluded!

[Check in the above lind PGF for sections 3.1 thru 3.7 for Defense Concerns]

And here is a link to the History of the the M65 280mm Motorized Heavy Gun, also known as atomic canon

@http://www.theatomiccannon.com/history

This weapon, and its movements were sone of the reasons for the generous lane withs, and heights under bridges, and weights on bridges and roadways ( @94,000Lbs and 47 tons) were set originally, For the 'new' Interstate system.  And one of these M-65's was actually paraded down Pennsylvania Ave in Washington for Eisenhower's Innagural Parade in 1953

I remember my Dad relating that one of his co-workers said he was going to buy a truck so he could take his family on trips and use the interstate system legally to get to where he was going without the traffic of the present U.S. and State Routes.

But then there was concern that if they were only opened to the general public for evacuation, the general public would have no idea where they went or how to drive on them.  There were also complaints by tax payers about paying for something they might never use.

So that is when the Interstate System became available to everybody.

There have been several attempts to convert the Interstate System (or parts of it in experimentation) to a "guided driving system" by embedding magnets in the side of the lanes that instrumentation on the car could sense and follow.  Those experiments proved that the cost/benefit ratio was too great and the experiments were abandoned.  I believe there are still stretches of Interstate in the Los Angeles area that still have the magnets in the roadway, but repair and re-construction has left many of those stretches broken up into non-contiguous sections and rendered them useless even if you had the instrumentation in your car.

I cannot speak to what California has done over the years while making changes in its Interstate System. I do know that up on the East Coast, when presented with 'land costs'; politicians began to cut back on the generous Federal Clearance specifications. and engineering details (radaii in ramp curves,heights under bridges, etc) all in efforts to 'save money',regardless of 'safety for traffic'.

 

[Euclid]

schlimm

 

Euclid

There is no way on earth that the present railroad industry will venture into this area.  It is an entirely new business.  

 

Source?

It is just self-evident if you consider what I said with my entire context, which was:

I see the specialized roadway dedicated to driverless trucks as a new type of “railroad”.  It is a railroad where virtual rails and flanges replace the steel rails and flanges.  Unlike steel railroads, this new “Smart Highway” will be able to operate individual vehicles at very high densities, with pickup and delivery directly to any customer, no matter what the haul distance is.   

There is no way on earth that the present railroad industry will venture into this area.  It is an entirely new business. 

***************************************************

When I say that the railroads will not venture into this, I mean venture into a robotic, on-demand, dock-to-dock, just-in-time, any-size-load type of service with nimble, single unit rail vehicles. 

As you suggested earlier, it would be easier to automate the railroads because trains are already self-guiding, and self-guidance is the greatest challenge to automated highway vehicles.  However, everything about the new kind of freight service that I refer to above is everything that the railroads are not. 

Although the railroads may automate someday too, the similarity ends there.  They will continue to haul monster trainloads of bulk material on a non-time-sensitive basis.  But it is trucking that will evolve into this new, quick/nimble, vending machine-like transportation service with robotic vehicles.  It is a natural development of self-driving vehicles running on roads and highways. 

[Paul of Covington]

   Well I'll be hornswoggled!   Semper, I remember hearing that the interstate system was supposed to be for defense, but figured that it was just for the faster transport of defense material.   I didn't realize it went through the steps you mentioned.   I do remember hearing later that it was basically a WPA-like program to create construction jobs.

[Semper Vaporo]

When the interstate system was first proposed, the impetus was to provide a rapid escape route from cities in the event of nuclear attack.

Then there was concern that all this concrete and infrastructure would just go to waste if there were never any attacks.  So it was decided that they would be used by trucks ONLY for transport of good and services.  The general public in automobiles would be excluded!

I remember my Dad relating that one of his co-workers said he was going to buy a truck so he could take his family on trips and use the interstate system legally to get to where he was going without the traffic of the present U.S. and State Routes.

But then there was concern that if they were only opened to the general public for evacuation, the general public would have no idea where they went or how to drive on them.  There were also complaints by tax payers about paying for something they might never use.

So that is when the Interstate System became available to everybody.

There have been several attempts to convert the Interstate System (or parts of it in experimentation) to a "guided driving system" by embedding magnets in the side of the lanes that instrumentation on the car could sense and follow.  Those experiments proved that the cost/benefit ratio was too great and the experiments were abandoned.  I believe there are still stretches of Interstate in the Los Angeles area that still have the magnets in the roadway, but repair and re-construction has left many of those stretches broken up into non-contiguous sections and rendered them useless even if you had the instrumentation in your car.

 

[samfp1943]

schlimm

 

 

Euclid

There is no way on earth that the present railroad industry will venture into this area.  It is an entirely new business.  

 

 

Source?

 

 

Euclid

That is why the government has to build it.  They are already chomping at the bit to have the county go driverless. 

 

 

Source beyond your anti-government conspiracy world?

 

 

  

At the risk of in-putting some level of cynicism into this argument.

     And without anything[references?], but  my own thoughts on this topic.           My first thought is that while a level of technological brilliance exists in the area of autoinomous commercial vehicles, there seems to be a 'disconnect' in the process.

Firstly; Is a vehicle truly autonoimous, if there is an onboard 'operator' required?

    There is a level of inherant problems in the 'demands' (?) for such a seperate system of 'roadways'

  . For autonomous commercial vehicles ( it would seem almost a 'given' [ IMHO] for such a sysytem.   If built, would also have 'use' by 'civilian' vehicles as well.. Such a provision would somehow, exponentially, raise the level of risk, among all the autonomous users(?).  

A question was asked elsewhere, in this Thread: If autonomous vehicles are invokved in an 'accident' and is at fault, ""...Who is responsible..." Ultimately, the way or Insurance System is, the RISK is spread among all insured(?)

IS that wquitable, for non-aut5onomous vehicle owners?

 NEXT: COST !  As a Country, we are constantly, made aware of a national deficiency in our current roadway network of several billions of dollars.    It seems to be that instead of fixing these deficiencies, we ( our 'poitical class') only seems to be able to only fund patching, the 'worst of the deficiencies'.  How often are we told when this argument is made, that a large number of bridges are deficient? Which seems to beg the question: "Which area is the first priority?" 

 Ii seems to be that bridges or roadways are only marked for repair [patching?] when the problem becomes so obvious that traffic must be diverted, or a bridge closed, because 'it is too unsafe."         All these problems are faced by current vehicular traffic; vehicles operated by legally, competent drivers.  How will an autonomous vehicle function in such an environment of constantly, changing risks?          And in the current political environment, do any of us think there will be enough money to do infrastructure repairs?

[Euclid]

challenger3980

 

Euclid

I see the specialized roadway dedicated to driverless trucks as a new type of “railroad”.  It is a railroad where virtual rails and flanges replace the steel rails and flanges.  Unlike steel railroads, this new “Smart Highway” will be able to operate individual vehicles at very high densities, with pickup and delivery directly to any customer, no matter what the haul distance is.    

There is no way on earth that the present railroad industry will venture into this area.  It is an entirely new business.  That is why the government has to build it.  They are already chomping at the bit to have the county go driverless.  It is the new Green Movement on wheels. 

 

 

 

 

 

Where do you think the funding for this is going to come from?

What do you "Invision" this costing?

It SOUNDS like a Wonderful idea, in a Utopian world,...

Doug

 

Doug,

I’m not advocating it, just predicting it as the most sensible embodiment of robot vehicles.  It is certainly no more farfetched than what is on the table now.  What, you think money will be a problem?  Then I have got a bridge for you.  Everybody already agrees that we simply must rebuild our entire crumbling infrastructure if we are to go forward.  And they are not worried about money.   

My essential expectation is that self-driving vehicles will not become a practical reality in the next few years as currently visualized.  That is way overpromised by the runaway hype.  

A quite different form of the self-driving vision will materialize in maybe 15-20 years.  It will include revolutionary vehicles AND revolutionary roads.  There will never be a mix of today’s roads and the self-driving vehicles.  Self-driving cars and trucks interacting with manually human driven vehicles is indeed that Jestons vision that you mention. 

[challenger3980]

Euclid

I see the specialized roadway dedicated to driverless trucks as a new type of “railroad”.  It is a railroad where virtual rails and flanges replace the steel rails and flanges.  Unlike steel railroads, this new “Smart Highway” will be able to operate individual vehicles at very high densities, with pickup and delivery directly to any customer, no matter what the haul distance is.    

There is no way on earth that the present railroad industry will venture into this area.  It is an entirely new business.  That is why the government has to build it.  They are already chomping at the bit to have the county go driverless.  It is the new Green Movement on wheels. 

 

Do you by chance happen to live in Oregon, Washington, Colorado, or another state where recreational Marijuana is Legal? Or are you on something stronger?

 

Where do you think the funding for this is going to come from?

What do you "Invision" this costing?

Then ASSUMING, that the funding can be found, just WHERE do you propose this being built? I haven't been out that way maybe there is real estate available between Kansas City and Omaha, out in Texas or Nevada, but in Portland, OR, Seattle, WA Los Angeles, and just about any where on the East Coast, do you REALLY think that you are going to build a 4 lane highway(2 lanes each direction) that is dedicated exclusively to unmanned commercial vehicles, and that is going to FLY with John Q. Public, as he sits in a traffic jam?

 It SOUNDS like a Wonderful idea, in a Utopian world, but it is NOT based in any reality, that we will see in our lifetimes, and doubtful that our Grandchildren will see it either.

 If I tried to tell a DOT officer a story like that, he would hand me a jar, show me to the restroom, and tell me to fill'er up. No need to test it, if you come out with more on your hands and shoes than in the jar.

In my hometown of Portland, where I-5 passes near the convention center and Rose Quarter, it is only TWO lanes each direction, with no where to add any more lanes, very poor planning there. Along I-84, what little room was available, they put in that stupid "MAX" Light Rail system, so without double decking, there is no where to increase any capacity there.

But I'm sure that the locals would be Very Happy, to see, what I am sure would total in the Billions to create some dedicated autonomous truck lanes, while they sit stuck in traffic, sounds reasonable to me, BTW I still have that bridge for sale.

Sorry Bucky, by the time that is a reality, the need will have been made obsolete by Scotty just sending freight through the transporter beam, no wheeled vehicle needed.

 Excuse me, I need to have my George Jetson flying car serviced, the ones that were supposed to be available by the year 2000, remember THOSE predictions?

Doug

[schlimm]

Euclid

There is no way on earth that the present railroad industry will venture into this area.  It is an entirely new business.  

Source?

Euclid

That is why the government has to build it.  They are already chomping at the bit to have the county go driverless. 

Source beyond your anti-government conspiracy world?

 

[tree68]

BaltACD

Beyond that - with all bot's - who is going to report it.

We already get accidents reported from those onboard assistance programs (OnStar) - if the vehicle senses a collision, it sends a signal to the control center and they call the appropriate jurisdiction.

[Norm48327]

Euclid

I see the specialized roadway dedicated to driverless trucks as a new type of “railroad”. It is a railroad where virtual rails and flanges replace the steel rails and flanges. Unlike steel railroads, this new “Smart Highway” will be able to operate individual vehicles at very high densities, with pickup and delivery directly to any customer, no matter what the haul distance is.

Pie in the sky at this point in time. Perhaps in another hundred years? Who knows? Could happen but..............

[BaltACD]

Paul of Covington

   We're having a lot of fun with all this conjecture about driverless vehicles, but there is one problem that hasn't been given much thought:  when an accident does happen, who ya gonna sue?

Beyond that - with all bot's - who is going to report it.

[Paul of Covington]

   We're having a lot of fun with all this conjecture about driverless vehicles, but there is one problem that hasn't been given much thought:  when an accident does happen, who ya gonna sue?

[Euclid]

I see the specialized roadway dedicated to driverless trucks as a new type of “railroad”.  It is a railroad where virtual rails and flanges replace the steel rails and flanges.  Unlike steel railroads, this new “Smart Highway” will be able to operate individual vehicles at very high densities, with pickup and delivery directly to any customer, no matter what the haul distance is.    

There is no way on earth that the present railroad industry will venture into this area.  It is an entirely new business.  That is why the government has to build it.  They are already chomping at the bit to have the county go driverless.  It is the new Green Movement on wheels. 

[wanswheel]

The HAVs and the HAV knots

https://www.transportation.gov/AV

 “For DOT, the excitement around highly automated vehicles (HAVs) starts with safety. Two numbers exemplify the need. First, 35,092 people died on U.S. roadways in 2015 alone. Second, 94 percent of crashes can be tied to a human choice or error. An important promise of HAVs is to address and mitigate that overwhelming majority of crashes. Whether through technology that corrects for human mistakes, or through technology that takes over the full driving responsibility, automated driving innovations could dramatically decrease the number of crashes tied to human choices and behavior. HAVs also hold a learning advantage over humans. While a human driver may repeat the same mistakes as millions before them, an HAV can benefit from the data and experience drawn from thousands of other vehicles on the road…"

[schlimm]

Euclid

So, it will be cheaper and more practical to put that last investment into a more specialized roadway. 

Of course the easiest transport modality to automate (driverless) would be railroads.  And for the anti-government crowd, it shouldn't cost the taxpayer a penny.