Powder River Basin coal is still being moved at a large rate.
Why would the management at BNSF or UP want to burden themselves with a merger?
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Just an opinion - I think if there ever is further consolidation, there will be consolidation, but also required divestment of parallel routes and trackage rights to ensure three or even four viable national systems in order to preserve and enhance competition and ensure trunk route mileage is preserved.
I cannot see any new mergers for the forseable future. The STB is dead set againts any new merges. As for new pipelines, the Keystone pipeline is dead and no new ones are being built as far as I know. It would be a great suprise to me if any new mergers between any of the seven class one railroads occur for at least the next ten years. It would take a major shakeup at the highest levels of the STB and a radical shift in polcy.
One has to wonder if traffic losses will finally lead to a final round of mergers. Looking at the situation Appalachian coal is facing and CBR this could be a possibility. Now when dealing with commodities they're obviously cyclic and change with market manipulation (That's right I said it market manipulation, let's quit sugar coating things). Yet, let's say these two traffic sources never recover? Appalachian coal while said to be expensive to mine is not done. Being at it's lowest point it won't return to record levels, but I can see it making somewhat of a comeback down the road. CBR while that traffic has died down will it recover to previous levels? They are opening up new pipeline capacity between Bakken and points South, and East. So we'll see who pulls the strings with that scenario..Please chime in. Could; BNSF+NS, and UP+CSX finally happen? Or are these combinations possible because of these factors; BNSF+NS+CN+KCS, and UP+CSX+CP+Ferromex. Or will business continue as usual?
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