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Solving the PTC Deadline Problem

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Posted by Norm48327 on Friday, October 23, 2015 4:34 AM

Paul_D_North_Jr

Mischief Well - Hell*, Michigan might freeze over in a couple months, too.

* N 42 26.070' W 83 59.166'

- Paul North. 

 

Been there and had lunch at the Dam Site Inn. It's a favorite ride for motorcyclists. The whole burg has a devilish sense of humor about it's name and capitalizes on it. Devil

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Posted by rockymidlandrr on Friday, October 23, 2015 12:02 PM

Hmmm, I know I'm jumping in on this a lil late, but with my carrier alone the PTC problem would of been solved years ago if they would of focused on installing PTC instead of inward facing camera's on all locomotives.  

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Posted by Buslist on Friday, October 23, 2015 1:16 PM

rockymidlandrr

Hmmm, I know I'm jumping in on this a lil late, but with my carrier alone the PTC problem would of been solved years ago if they would of focused on installing PTC instead of inward facing camera's on all locomotives.  

 

 

Kind of hard to do as the hardware wasn't available in the quanties needed.

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Posted by jeffhergert on Friday, October 23, 2015 7:43 PM

Wizlish
 
jeffhergert
I checked the forecast for Norway. Hell might freeze over next week.

 

In case anyone misses the Believe-It-Or-Not reference (Mr. North did not):

 

I first became aware of Hell, Norway many years ago from Reader's Digest.  It was something submitted to the "Humor in uniform" column.  Someone had submitted a note posted on a bulletin board outside the base office handling re-enlistments.  Something to the effect that, "The temperature in Hell, Norway was 25 degrees (f) yesterday.  Sgt X would like to see all those who said they would re-enlist when Hell froze over."

Jeff

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Posted by schlimm on Friday, October 23, 2015 7:53 PM

Hell, Michigan is about 15 miles NW of Ann Arbor.

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Posted by Paul_D_North_Jr on Saturday, October 24, 2015 10:23 AM

Norm48327
Paul_D_North_Jr

Mischief Well - Hell*, Michigan might freeze over in a couple months, too.

* N 42 26.070' W 83 59.166'

- Paul North. 

Been there and had lunch at the Dam Site Inn. It's a favorite ride for motorcyclists. The whole burg has a devilish sense of humor about it's name and capitalizes on it. Devil

To keep this at least somewhat rail-related: Was there myself "a few years back", returning from a couple of Wisconsin Central excursions over the old Duluth, South Shore & Atlantic (later the orginal Soo) from Marquette in Michigan's above-the-bridge (Mackinac Straits) "Yooper" territory.  Saturday's trip went west to Baraga and back; Sunday's went east to Newberry and back. 

I got there about dusk, so my photos are none too good, and I'm sure a lot has changed since then.  But the photo I like best was of the old tall circular gas station sign with the name of the town on it and surrounded by painted flames - and directly underneath it was one of those large outdoor insulated chests that are used to store and sell bagged ice !

- Paul North.    

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Posted by MidlandMike on Saturday, October 24, 2015 7:23 PM

Paul_D_North_Jr

 

To keep this at least somewhat rail-related: Was there myself "a few years back", returning from a couple of Wisconsin Central excursions over the old Duluth, South Shore & Atlantic (later the orginal Soo) from Marquette in Michigan's above-the-bridge (Mackinac Straits) "Yooper" territory.  Saturday's trip went west to Baraga and back; Sunday's went east to Newberry and back. 

 

I also was on those ex-DSS&A trips in 1992.  Sadly the line from the LS&I jct near Negaunee to Munising Jct was torn up shortly thereafter.

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Posted by greyhounds on Sunday, October 25, 2015 8:59 PM

I respectfully suggest that everyone consider the idea that our nation's railroads will be quite happy to get rid of TIH/PIH business.  They cannot buy enough insurance to cover the risks.  This is because insurance companies, even acting through reinsurance to spread the risks, cannot afford to cover the potential risks.  

I also respectfully suggest consideration of the concept that eliminating those stupid capacity destroying Amtrak trains will be a blessing.

No TIH, no Amtrak, no problem.

"By many measures, the U.S. freight rail system is the safest, most efficient and cost effective in the world." - Federal Railroad Administration, October, 2009. I'm just your average, everyday, uncivilized howling "anti-government" critic of mass government expenditures for "High Speed Rail" in the US. And I'm gosh darn proud of that.
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Posted by zugmann on Sunday, October 25, 2015 9:18 PM

Why stop there?  Stop running anyhting, period.  No risks that way.

 

 

It's been fun.  But it isn't much fun anymore.   Signing off for now. 


  

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Posted by greyhounds on Sunday, October 25, 2015 9:24 PM

zugmann
Why stop there?  Stop running anyhting, period.  No risks that way.

Because lumber, UPS packages, washing machines, iron ore, etc. involve far less risk than TIH/PIH and don't destroy line capacity with virtually no revenue (as Amtrak does).

"By many measures, the U.S. freight rail system is the safest, most efficient and cost effective in the world." - Federal Railroad Administration, October, 2009. I'm just your average, everyday, uncivilized howling "anti-government" critic of mass government expenditures for "High Speed Rail" in the US. And I'm gosh darn proud of that.
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Posted by zugmann on Sunday, October 25, 2015 10:25 PM

greyhounds

 Because lumber, UPS packages, washing machines, iron ore, etc. involve far less risk than TIH/PIH and don't destroy line capacity with virtually no revenue (as Amtrak does).

 

Risks vs. rewards, I guess.  Must be something to handling the bad stuff.  I've seen a lot of money pumped into the chemical coast of NJ, and for other refineries.  

 

Are you telling me lumber cars will make up the difference?   And if one company doesn't haul the nasty stuff, I'm sure the next will pick it up (once this PTC stuff gets sorted). 

 RRs are in the business of hauling stuff safely.  If those in charge aren't able to do it (or too pansy enough to try), then I think they need to find a new job.  The stuff needs hauled, whether some like it or not.

 This whole notion of not hauling TIH or passengers is absurd.

It's been fun.  But it isn't much fun anymore.   Signing off for now. 


  

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Posted by erikem on Sunday, October 25, 2015 11:12 PM

zugmann

 This whole notion of not hauling TIH or passengers is absurd.

What's not absud is the RR's wanting revenues to reasonably cover the costs of hauling TIH or passengers. In the case of insurance, it might be worthwhile requiring the shippers or customers to pay for insurance. The insurance compnay may then adjust the rates based on the RR's (or whatever transportation method used) safety record, which would then incentivise the shipper to pay more for better safety in transit.

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Posted by wanswheel on Monday, October 26, 2015 11:50 AM
It seems this really is the crucial week something will happen.
Excerpt from Wall Street Journal, Oct. 26
The U.S. House is trying to deal with two big transportation deadlines in one bill. Republican and Democratic leaders of the chamber’s transportation committee put together a three-week extension of the highway programs set to expire on Thursday. That sets up a likely vote on Tuesday for the latest in a series of short-term bills that push off consideration of a long-term plan for transportation spending and policies. It’s more than just a routine extension, though, because the bill includes a big win for the railroad industry. Lawmakers included a three-year extension of the rail safety technology mandate that was due to hit at the end of the year—and bring chaos to rail operations that are not ready to put Positive Train Control into place.
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Posted by schlimm on Monday, October 26, 2015 12:33 PM

erikem

 

 
zugmann

 This whole notion of not hauling TIH or passengers is absurd.

 

 

What's not absud is the RR's wanting revenues to reasonably cover the costs of hauling TIH or passengers. In the case of insurance, it might be worthwhile requiring the shippers or customers to pay for insurance. The insurance compnay may then adjust the rates based on the RR's (or whatever transportation method used) safety record, which would then incentivise the shipper to pay more for better safety in transit.

 

With regard to liability insurance for TIH, it may not be as simple as you suggest.  If a train derails and destroys a large area in a town (as in the Decatur IL accident), should the TIH manufacturer be liable?  Doubtful.

Fees for Amtrak track usage are renegotiated every X years.  

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Posted by wanswheel on Tuesday, October 27, 2015 10:24 AM
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Posted by wanswheel on Tuesday, October 27, 2015 1:25 PM
The House passed the highway bill which would extend the PTC deadline.
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Posted by dehusman on Tuesday, October 27, 2015 3:12 PM

It now has to move to the Senate, they need to vote on it and pass it and Obama sign it by Oct 29th to avoid shutting off Federal Highway funds.

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Posted by wanswheel on Wednesday, October 28, 2015 2:36 PM

Excerpt from Associated Press, Oct. 28

Congress passed a bill Wednesday that delays for at least three years the mandate for railroads to put long-sought safety technology in place, and extends the government's authority to spend money on transportation programs.

Federal accident investigators say the technology, known as positive train control or PTC, would have prevented an Amtrak derailment in Philadelphia last May that killed eight people and injured about 200 others had it been working. Amtrak had installed the technology on tracks were the crash occurred, but it hadn't yet been tested and so wasn't turned on.

The Senate passed the bill by a voice vote with little debate. The House passed the measure the previous day. It now goes to the White House, where President Barack Obama is expected to sign it into law.

Railroads have already had seven years to install PTC, but most aren't expected to meet the end-of-year deadline to put it into operation on all tracks that carry passenger trains or are used to haul liquids that turn into toxic gas if spilled. As a result, railroads and companies that ship freight by rail have been strongly urging Congress to provide a delay.

The bill gives railroads until Dec. 31, 2018, to install the expensive technology, and they can seek a waiver for up to another two years if needed.

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Posted by schlimm on Wednesday, October 28, 2015 3:57 PM

As some of us predicted on here, in spite of the many "the-sky-is-falling!" wails and cries of doom. Let's see if they can manage the 2018 deadline without invoking additional extensions to 2020.

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Posted by tree68 on Wednesday, October 28, 2015 4:41 PM

schlimm

As some of us predicted on here, in spite of the many "the-sky-is-falling!" wails and cries of doom. Let's see if they can manage the 2018 deadline without invoking additional extensions to 2020.

I would opine that inasmuch as a few locations are already "PTC Ready" (or close to it), this three years will allow for a continuation of efforts.  I'd say completion, but this will be a work in progress for years to come.  

I know the CSX line in my area has lots of new lineside equipment.  Many of the shelters may be waiting for some key component to be complete.

As we've discussed here, this is a large and complex (not to mention expensive) project.  I would suspect that the groundwork is largely complete, but as the 80-20 rule implies, the last 20% of the project will take 80% of the time.

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Posted by kgbw49 on Wednesday, October 28, 2015 6:13 PM

We can "guesstimate", but will never officially know, how much capacity could have been bought with the additional capital dollars put into PTC since 2008 and thrugh 2018 or 2020. How much more double track, how many more intermodal terminals, how much more of CREATE completed? The ongoing maintenance costs will also be substantial. In theory the railroads are supposed to be safer after rollout. It certainly has good intentions. As we all know, the price of theory and good intentions can be very high. Time will tell.

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Posted by MidlandMike on Wednesday, October 28, 2015 7:57 PM

kgbw49

We can "guesstimate", but will never officially know, how much capacity could have been bought with the additional capital dollars put into PTC since 2008 and thrugh 2018 or 2020. How much more double track, how many more intermodal terminals, how much more of CREATE completed? The ongoing maintenance costs will also be substantial. In theory the railroads are supposed to be safer after rollout. It certainly has good intentions. As we all know, the price of theory and good intentions can be very high. Time will tell.

 

Most of the things you mention were done to a large extent by the RRs to stay in business.  The extra $$ saved if not for PTC would have been added to the billions the RRs spent on stock buy-backs to please investors.

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Posted by kgbw49 on Wednesday, October 28, 2015 10:13 PM

Good point. Possibly the money might have been used for stock buybacks, and that is not necessarily a bad thing either, as the capital would be deployed to other investments. But had dollars diverted to PTC been deployed for capacity expansion, perhaps the Sunset Route would have been completed, more double track on the BNSF Northern Transcon would be in operation, Hearne might be farther along as would Virginia Avenue, more grade separations on the EJ&E, etc. it will be interesting to see what the final cost turns out to be.

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Posted by carnej1 on Monday, November 2, 2015 12:28 PM

kgbw49

Good point. Possibly the money might have been used for stock buybacks, and that is not necessarily a bad thing either, as the capital would be deployed to other investments. But had dollars diverted to PTC been deployed for capacity expansion, perhaps the Sunset Route would have been completed, more double track on the BNSF Northern Transcon would be in operation, Hearne might be farther along as would Virginia Avenue, more grade separations on the EJ&E, etc. it will be interesting to see what the final cost turns out to be.

 

So you are a railfan/railroad investor but you don't see problems with the Class 1's using capital to buy back stock rather than improve capacity?

Read this:

http://cs.trains.com/trn/b/fred-frailey/archive/2015/04/21/10-billion-flies-out-the-door.aspx

 

 

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Posted by BaltACD on Wednesday, November 4, 2015 10:41 PM

Never too old to have a happy childhood!

              

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Posted by blue streak 1 on Thursday, November 5, 2015 2:10 PM

BaltACD

 
Quite an indictment.  Wonder how much effort BNSF officials will take to keep Buffet from reading the article ?
 
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Posted by wanswheel on Thursday, November 5, 2015 2:33 PM
Sen. Thune wanted a 5-year extension 2 years ago.
Excerpt from Reuters, Nov. 4
Thune said he realized early on that the New Year's Eve deadline could have dire consequences for the economy and for railroads, which were reporting problems with positive train control systems.
But after May's Amtrak disaster, "when they announced that this could have been prevented if they'd had positive train control, there was a real spotlight on why we weren't there and what we could do to get there faster," Thune told Reuters in an interview.
Meanwhile, the railroads were hampered by anti-trust considerations that prohibited operators from talking directly with each other to launch a collaborative effort.
That changed in August after Thune sent letters to the regulatory Surface Transportation Board and individual railroads asking what would happen if the PTC deadline was not extended. His committee then publicized their responses.
"That was sort of the seminal moment," Thune said. Now the railroads had a channel for their views.
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Posted by schlimm on Thursday, November 5, 2015 5:33 PM

blue streak 1

 

 
BaltACD

 

 
Quite an indictment.  Wonder how much effort BNSF officials will take to keep Buffet from reading the article ?
 
 

Lots of blame to go around, mostly the lack of a systems integrator, corporate ignorance and some union aspects.   Looks like the results are that PTC won't deliver what it could have (probably meeting the deadline, too) if the railroads had been better organized.

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Posted by schlimm on Thursday, November 5, 2015 5:40 PM

Says Dittmeyer:   “The Class I CEOs made a big mistake when they all assigned the responsibility for PTC implementation to their signaling departments. Signal engineers were fearful that PTC would mean the demise of their signal systems. When they were given the responsibility for implementing PTC, they changed the architecture so that PTC would be tied to all intermediate wayside signals, meaning that more than 20,000 data radios would need to be installed. And then they also decided that they needed to replace all their old wayside signals with new ones to which they could connect the PTC system. These decisions more than doubled the cost of PTC from what FRA had estimated.

“Tying PTC to intermediate wayside signals also had an adverse effect on business benefits. It meant that existing fixed blocks, and the relay logic that controlled the signals, would remain in place. Thus, moving block, and the possibility of closer train spacing, would not be possible. That in turn meant that business benefits such as improved running times, improved reliability, increased track capacity and improved asset utilization would not be obtainable. Had the railroads implemented PTC in such a way as to obtain those benefits, their customers would receive better, more reliable service."

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Posted by BaltACD on Thursday, November 5, 2015 5:46 PM

Coulda, Woulda, Shoulda - 2nd guessers - those not charged with the actual responsibility for it come out of the wood work.

Let's have Parks & Recreation decide how to protect the country with the Pentagon's budget!

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