Bucyrus oltmannd It is called Positive Train Control, and it is a statutory requirement, and the Department of Transportation had to issue it as a matter of law even though the monetizable benefits are lower than the monetizable costs. How does one predict what the benefit will be without knowing the cost of the accidents that would have occurred without PTC? How does one predict what the cost will be when the R&D has not been entirely completed? Why is it a statutory requirement if the cost exceeds the benefit? What is the measured quantification of the benefit?
oltmannd It is called Positive Train Control, and it is a statutory requirement, and the Department of Transportation had to issue it as a matter of law even though the monetizable benefits are lower than the monetizable costs.
It is called Positive Train Control, and it is a statutory requirement, and the Department of Transportation had to issue it as a matter of law even though the monetizable benefits are lower than the monetizable costs.
How does one predict what the benefit will be without knowing the cost of the accidents that would have occurred without PTC?
How does one predict what the cost will be when the R&D has not been entirely completed?
Why is it a statutory requirement if the cost exceeds the benefit?
What is the measured quantification of the benefit?
Predicting costs and benefits is doable, but it is important to understand the constraints. This is especially true for predictions going out more than a couple of years.
The key to predicting costs and benefits is to begin with an appropriate database. Another key is to use the appropriate statistical modeling techniques. If the database is shallow and/or the statistical techniques are inappropriate, the results will be wrong. Every statistical technique (method) has inherent weaknesses. If the researches don't understand them, they are likely to generate the wrong outcome.
Each year for grins I read the President's (OMB) proposed federal budget. I read all of the summary tables, as well as the support schedules for transportation, at a minimum, and a significant portion of the narrative.. I also read the Social Security and Medicare Trustee's annual reports. These documents contain projections for 10 years or more. From one year to another the projections, especially those for more than five years, can swing as much as 20 per cent. And that is just over one year.
When someone predicts the costs and benefits of a proposed project as a number, it would only be accurate coincidentally. An honest researcher projects a range of numbers, together with the parameters baked into his or her statistical model.
Bottom line? View all statistical projections (costs and benefits) with a skeptical eye.
schlimm Head on collisions? Who said that's all we can look at? Running into the side of another train or the rear of another train also count and could also be prevented.
Head on collisions? Who said that's all we can look at? Running into the side of another train or the rear of another train also count and could also be prevented.
Of course, "cornfield meets" are the grandaddy of all collisions. I suspect that Ed's point is that such catastrophic events are extremely rare, when considering the number of operations that occur on railroads during a given period.
F'rinstance, just considering the line that runs through my area, there were approximately 3000 train starts over a typical two year period (and maybe more). That 15 collisions, applied only to this line, means that .5% percent of the trains would have been involved in such a collision, or one in 200. Raise that number to 30,000 and 15 starts to become a relatively insignificant number. If you raise that to 3000 starts a day and you have over two million starts - still with just 15 collisions.
That's one incident in 133,333.
To my knowledge, there were no purely rail adverse events on this line during that period, even including derailments. Pedestrians aren't covered by PTC.
The last major incident on the line - the Fort Drum runaways - would not have been prevented by PTC - there was no locomotive or EOT involved. Just two "dark" cars.
Larry Resident Microferroequinologist (at least at my house) Everyone goes home; Safety begins with you My Opinion. Standard Disclaimers Apply. No Expiration Date Come ride the rails with me! There's one thing about humility - the moment you think you've got it, you've lost it...
oltmannd From a recent G. Will column: " Before returning to Harvard Law School, Cass Sunstein was Barack Obama’s administrator of the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, measuring the benefits of regulations against their costs. Testifying to a House subcommittee on Jan. 26, 2011, Sunstein was asked if he could identify an administration regulation whose ―benefits have not justified the cost.‖ He replied:―There is only one big one that comes to mind. It is called Positive Train Control, and it is a statutory requirement, and the Department of Transportation had to issue it as a matter of law even though the monetizable benefits are lower than the monetizable costs. There aren’t a lot like that.‖Concerning Sunstein’s sanguine" So, why didn't the RRs fight against it harder? I have a couple of thoughts. What are yours?
From a recent G. Will column:
"
Before returning to Harvard Law School, Cass Sunstein was Barack Obama’s administrator of the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, measuring the benefits of regulations against their costs. Testifying to a House subcommittee on Jan. 26, 2011, Sunstein was asked if he could identify an administration regulation whose ―benefits have not justified the cost.‖ He replied:―There is only one big one that comes to mind. It is called Positive Train Control, and it is a statutory requirement, and the Department of Transportation had to issue it as a matter of law even though the monetizable benefits are lower than the monetizable costs. There aren’t a lot like that.‖Concerning Sunstein’s sanguine"
So, why didn't the RRs fight against it harder? I have a couple of thoughts. What are yours?
One of the Congressmen in the PTC hearing yesterday quoted Will quoting Sunstein.
-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/)
Sam1,
I can see how the probable benefit could be predicted by statistical models that project the future based on the past. But I would say that it would be far more difficult to predict the cost.
Predicting the cost would be largely a matter of speculation and luck. The principle of a mandate and deadline injects a wildcard into the normal free market economics. The fact that it has already been established and accepted that the cost will exceed the benefit is evidence of that wildcard.
But perhaps another way of looking at the unpredictability of cost is that it naturally results from the undefined endpoint of the objective and scope of the project.
Bucyrus Sam1, I can see how the probable benefit could be predicted by statistical models that project the future based on the past. But I would say that it would be far more difficult to predict the cost. Predicting the cost would be largely a matter of speculation and luck. The principle of a mandate and deadline injects a wildcard into the normal free market economics. The fact that it has already been established and accepted that the cost will exceed the benefit is evidence of that wildcard. But perhaps another way of looking at the unpredictability of cost is that it naturally results from the undefined endpoint of the objective and scope of the project.
Predicting cost and benefits, especially for more than a year or two, is dicey. Most of the corporate planners and regulators that I worked with acknowledged that coming up with an accurate prediction for costs and benefits for more than a year or two is more about playing to the audience than recognizing the constraints associated with accounting and finance predictions.
All I'm getting out of this thread is that my next train might get hit by an asteroid while I'm changing a knuckle in a snowbank.
Do you have to carry the knuckle uphill, barefoot in the snow?
23 17 46 11
edblysard Do you have to carry the knuckle uphill, barefoot in the snow?
Of course .. you expect me to wear pumps ?
The fact that the cost exceeds the benefit of this PTC mandate naturally opens the door to criticism. And since nobody wants criticism, I have to believe that the cost estimate has been made to be as low as possible. In reality, I expect the cost to be unlimited because the work will go on forever. The mandate deadline time frame will be subdivided in order to cope with the impossibility of meeting it in one fell swoop.
Subdividing the timeframe will amount to subdividing the mandate, and this process will continue ad infinitum. Mandates will have children. But the key point is that the whole process will be compulsory upon the railroads, leaving them no choice but to pay for it. That is one big reason why the process will never end.
Randy Stahl All I'm getting out of this thread is that my next train might get hit by an asteroid while I'm changing a knuckle in a snowbank.
Snowbanks have knuckles?
Randy Stahl edblysard Do you have to carry the knuckle uphill, barefoot in the snow? Of course .. you expect me to wear pumps ?
Now I know, you were a ground pounder/switchman at one time, thats the answer I was expecting!
Randy Stahl Of course .. you expect me to wear pumps ?
Only if you have the legs for it.
It's been fun. But it isn't much fun anymore. Signing off for now.
The opinions expressed here represent my own and not those of my employer, any other railroad, company, or person.t fun any
tree68 Randy Stahl All I'm getting out of this thread is that my next train might get hit by an asteroid while I'm changing a knuckle in a snowbank. Snowbanks have knuckles?
Yes, snow banks have knuckles.. we find them with the snow plows. Makes quite a racket.
Once again certain folks make a thread ridiculous because they don't like the topic.
C&NW, CA&E, MILW, CGW and IC fan
schlimm Once again certain folks make a thread ridiculous because they don't like the topic.
That's ridiculous!
Thanks to Chris / CopCarSS for my avatar.
Hi-heels....
Any argument carried far enough will end up in Semantics--Hartz's law of rhetoric Emerald. Leemer and Southern The route of the Sceptre Express Barry
I just started my blog site...more stuff to come...
http://modeltrainswithmusic.blogspot.ca/
Well... out of all the people that are writing there are only a few that are directly impacted by the proposed PTC implementation. Of course anyone traveling by rail may or may not feel safer , but it is us, the railway mechanical and operating people that will be responsible for the installation, operation and maintenence or these systems. Over the years I have worked on any number of mandated safety systems that were deemed imperative for safe operation and I take my job very seriously. I have installed 100s of mandated event recorders, 100s of mandated crew alert systems, 100s of mandated ditch lights and 100s of other mandated modifications to enable legal operation of our locomotive fleet in the US and Canada. Since I am the one doing the actual work and testing on these devices and or mods ,I have a perspective that no one else has. I have seen other mandated mods and systems that never quite worked out. No matter what happens with PTC, regardless if I agree with it or not, I will install them, I will maintain them and I will do my job !
So .. before you dismiss someone as a troll or a trouble maker, or of even wrecking a thread with humour.. know the source.
Randy Stahl
Randy Stahl So .. before you dismiss someone as a troll or a trouble maker, or of even wrecking a thread with humour.. know the source. Randy Stahl
I wasn't referring to your comments, since your other posts were very fact-based. I am not sure if PTC was the right answer, but pretty clearly it was a response to a real problem that was not being addressed proactively. And that is what generally ends up happening when you aren't proactive: someone else makes you do something(that might not be so good) to address the problem because you stalled. [excuse the pun! but the readers should know "Stahl" means "steel"]
Well, the LION does own a railroad, 14 miles of 1:87 scale trains. With these credentials, shall I challenge the NTSB, or the FRA, or the BNSF, or any other letters that may have fallen out of a can of soup?
Well, Yes, I guess I will.
PTC is an "idea", not a protocol or a physical contrivance. People are promoting an idea, without any uniform protocols or hardware to point to, to praise, or complain about. NYCT does have PTC and for them it works, but I can not really see that working out on the high iron. (Be it steel or otherwise)
LION does not engage in high finances, transportation, or even reality, or so it would seem. But ideas... The LION as them by the hundred. And if you need more, I have more where those came from.
So... PTC as an IDEA... It has already happened. But what shall it do, what it will look like, what equipment is required, this is all fungible. But LION sees it grown along side of and concurrent with AUTOMATION. And that is the ELEPHANT in the room. Automation cannot happen with out train control, positive or otherwise. But LIRR and MNCR have had great experience with cab signals, indeed LIRR's cab signals are tied to their positive train control. MNCR has regular signal aspects inside the cab, and the wayside block signals have mostly gone away. LIRR has signal aspects tied to the speedometer, a lamp over every 10 mph on the scale. It tells the engine what speed to do now. I suppose that if he does not control the train in accordance with this display, the machine will do it for him.
Another aspect of PTC as an IDEA, is crew safety. Sleep, inattentivity, and vision issues are things that limit the life expectancy of train crews. Does it fulfill this idea. Well, yes and no. IT will prevent some accidents but not others. We do not put a money value on life or injury, that is far too political for a LION to deal with. But him cannot see killing people off for no good reason. (even if they are tasty).
Some people LIKE the 'idea" but have no idea what it really entails, others look at the dark side of the "idea" and try to oppose it. If I owned a real rail road, I'd IGNORE it and put my attention into automated train control. THAT is, according to LION, where the issue has to go. But then unions do not *like* that idea. Me thinks they should be the FIRST to get on board the project, if for no other reason than to protect their (employees) interests.
LION would like to hear more discussion on this topic/ Him makes outrageous proposal because him wants to hear discussion, not because him thinks him is right.
ROAR
The Route of the Broadway Lion The Largest Subway Layout in North Dakota.
Here there be cats. LIONS with CAMERAS
schlimm Randy Stahl So .. before you dismiss someone as a troll or a trouble maker, or of even wrecking a thread with humour.. know the source. Randy Stahl I wasn't referring to your comments, since your other posts were very fact-based. I am not sure if PTC was the right answer, but pretty clearly it was a response to a real problem that was not being addressed proactively. And that is what generally ends up happening when you aren't proactive: someone else makes you do something(that might not be so good) to address the problem because you stalled. [excuse the pun! but the readers should know "Stahl" means "steel"]
Tis easy for a governmental body to mandate a unperfected technology when the governmental body is not responsible for funding that mandate or perfecting the technology. Article I recently saw (sorry no link) states that the FCC still has not allocated the radio bands that will be required to operate the system. So one side of the government says do it, and another side holds up required tools for doing it. Only in the US of A.
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
zugmann Randy Stahl Of course .. you expect me to wear pumps ? Only if you have the legs for it.
Well.. if you like varicose veins perhaps we should meet.
Randy Stahl Well... out of all the people that are writing there are only a few that are directly impacted by the proposed PTC implementation.
Well... out of all the people that are writing there are only a few that are directly impacted by the proposed PTC implementation.
It's not likely that our tourist line will see PTC in the foreseeable future - but we can't rule it out entirely. We do run over a portion of a shortline, which could have an effect on our operations.
And, as I noted in another thread, part of the PTC issue is "What's Next?"
As for the weak humor - my kids always knew never to hand me a straight line... Didn't intend to detract from the discussion.
tree68 Randy Stahl Well... out of all the people that are writing there are only a few that are directly impacted by the proposed PTC implementation. It's not likely that our tourist line will see PTC in the foreseeable future - but we can't rule it out entirely. We do run over a portion of a shortline, which could have an effect on our operations. And, as I noted in another thread, part of the PTC issue is "What's Next?" As for the weak humor - my kids always knew never to hand me a straight line... Didn't intend to detract from the discussion.
Loop holes, get your loop holes.
Although with passengers on a tourist operation may complicate things, I was reading (I believe in Railway Age) that there was a provision for short lines that had trackage rights over other railroads. If the short line otherwise didn't meet the requirements to install PTC, they could get a waiver to operate without it over trackage of another railroad where PTC installation was required. I think there was a limit to how far the distance could be, something like 20 or 25 miles. (It's kind of like some of the exceptions we have that allow non-equipped CCS/ATC engines to operate in select, specific areas in CCS/ATC territories.)
Of course those waivers and exemptions will only last until one of those non-equipped trains runs into another train in PTC territory.
Jeff
BaltACD schlimm Randy Stahl So .. before you dismiss someone as a troll or a trouble maker, or of even wrecking a thread with humour.. know the source. Randy Stahl I wasn't referring to your comments, since your other posts were very fact-based. I am not sure if PTC was the right answer, but pretty clearly it was a response to a real problem that was not being addressed proactively. And that is what generally ends up happening when you aren't proactive: someone else makes you do something(that might not be so good) to address the problem because you stalled. [excuse the pun! but the readers should know "Stahl" means "steel"] Tis easy for a governmental body to mandate a unperfected technology when the governmental body is not responsible for funding that mandate or perfecting the technology. Article I recently saw (sorry no link) states that the FCC still has not allocated the radio bands that will be required to operate the system. So one side of the government says do it, and another side holds up required tools for doing it. Only in the US of A.
One carrier has seen fit to produce a pamphlet to their employees to explain the elements of PTC that is still in development
One can only imagine the rule book that will be required to implement this.
And the FRA thinks a cell phone is dangerous and distracting?
edblysard And the FRA thinks a cell phone is dangerous and distracting?
This keeps your mind on the railroad, a cell phone takes your mind someplace else.
BaltACD, thanks much for sharing that ! Very informative.
- Paul North.
Bonas Look at the wreck of the Washingtonian in Altoona PA in the 1960s
Look at the wreck of the Washingtonian in Altoona PA in the 1960s
I am from Altoona. I lived there from 1939 to 1964. Where can I find information regarding this wreck? Thanks!
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