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Transcontinental expansion business model

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Posted by Murphy Siding on Wednesday, March 16, 2011 8:44 AM

    If the ininial cost estimate was $45 million, then $60 million,  but the finished line cost $234 million, plus the electrification cost, then it appears to me that the directors weren't paying enough attention to at least some aspects of the business.

     I've read several times on these forums that 100 years ago, the average line haul was a couple hundred miles.  Was there really that much traffic moving to and from the Pacific Northwest?

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Posted by Paul_D_North_Jr on Wednesday, March 16, 2011 5:31 AM

jrbernier
[snipped]  
  • The Pacific Extension cost much more to actually build that estimated, and electrification was needed to be able to really move the traffic in the mountain districts.
  • The Panama Canal slowed import traffic for the railroads to a crawl for a number of years,

  The Milw wound up with massive debt.  Add the traffic taken away by the Panama Canal, and the Milw never really recovered financially and went into receivership.  Even after re-organization, the debt load kept the Milw throttled... 

  To supplement and support Jim's comments, according to the Wood book referenced above:

  • Initial cost estimate (early 1900's) - $45 Million; immediately before construction cost estimate - $60 Million; actual cost (before electrification) - $234 Million ! 
  • The MILW's Board knew about the Panama Canal plans, but viewed it as unlikely to be completed; and even if it was, they thought it would be used mainly by military/ Navy traffic, not commercial.

Receivership happened in the 1925-26 time frame, well after the WW I difficulties - the MILW went from being financially very sound pre-extension to a basket case.  But that financial reorganization was not very lasting - it went into bankruptcy again in 1935, which lasted until 1945 or 1947.

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Posted by Kevin C. Smith on Wednesday, March 16, 2011 1:50 AM

dakotafred

Those who think the Milwaukee was one railroad too many in the Pacific Northwest must not remember Michael Sol explaining how the M. was kicking everybody's posterior out that way at the end and was done in only by a conspiracy between the road's creditors and the bankruptcy court.Smile

     I was thinking of those threads, too. While best approached with the caution and protective gear of haz-mat personnel, they did contain much provocative and (to me, anyway) useful information. Some other things to consider:

  • While there were three tracks to the PNW, there were only two companies-the UP and the Hill Lines.
  • There were already two competing companies for southern route transcontinental traffic (the SP and the AT&SF) and with the completion of the Western Pacific (and possibly the SP,LA&SL) there were two along the central transcontinental route.

     With all that, a third transcon in the PNW would not necessarily look that far out of line. Indeed, had the Texas & Pacific and the C&NW gone ahead with their earliest ideas to expand to Pacific tidewater, there would have been three competing companies along the other two routes as well.

  • The closest competitor to the Milwaukee Road that was shut out of the Hill Lines interchange (the C&NW) still had the UP as a friendly connection for transcontinental traffic-a fall back the Milwaukee did not posses.
  • The only other large Granger road (the Rock Island) was, at this time, strengthening its position with the SP for transcontinental traffic.

     That left the Milwaukee looking at a future of being the only important Granger road without a friendly connection to funnel traffic to it from western points and vice versa. After looking at the risks (not enough traffic to support the cost of construction vs. being shut out of western/transcontinental traffic entirely), the costs (building the line from scratch vs. making friendly connections with a system that someone else's money had established) and the rewards (full control of haul/rate division vs. sharing with a western partner), I can't blame the Milwaukee's board for deciding to build the PCE. In the context of their history to that point they almost had to. Sadly, the timing (in hindsight) almost could not have been worse...

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Posted by Ulrich on Wednesday, March 16, 2011 12:05 AM

The purpose of the Pacific Coast Extension was ostensibly to compete more effectively with NP and the GN for west coast traffic.  The supporters of this project no doubt saw a competitive advantage in having a line from Chicago to the west coast...GN and NP only went as far east as the twin cities and had to transfer to other roads to reach Chicago.

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Posted by erikem on Tuesday, March 15, 2011 6:54 PM

mudchicken

Excellent book on the Milwaukee Western Extension:

http://www.amazon.com/Milwaukee-Roads-Western-Extension-Transcontinental/dp/0972335668

Stan Johnson did a really nice job explaining what evolved instead of just publishing another worthless cofffeetable book with pictures of the railroad's shiny toys.

I second the dirty feathered one's recommendation of Johnson's book, and found it to have been thoroughly researched. Lots of interesting details on how obstacles were overcome in the construction of the line. The line between Morbridge and Harlowton was nicely engineered, only a few curves sharper than 2.5 degrees and maximum grade of 0.6% (with the exception of a short stretch of 1% EB in North Dakota).

Johnson pointed out that many of the directors of the "St. Paul" line were also directors of Anaconda Copper Mining Co and they wanted some competition for freight in and out of Butte and Anaconda. There were also hopes of getting timber traffic from the forests covering the Bitterroots.

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Posted by dakotafred on Tuesday, March 15, 2011 5:32 PM

Those who think the Milwaukee was one railroad too many in the Pacific Northwest must not remember Michael Sol explaining how the M. was kicking everybody's posterior out that way at the end and was done in only by a conspiracy between the road's creditors and the bankruptcy court.Smile

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Posted by mudchicken on Tuesday, March 15, 2011 3:17 PM

Victrola1

IThe CB&Q did surveys on a line from Denver to Salt Lake City.

Why did these Grangers not expand farther west? Are there corporate records on the subject?

The CB&Q surveys 1882-1885 happened in the middle of a financial panic. The Q had a tough time surviving and its priorities changed. Those surveys were filed under the guise of the "Colorado Railway" and filed with the GLO (BLM today). In several places, those surveys were later built, not by CB&Q, but by DNW&P and D&RG(W)...and are part of the Union Pacific's Moffat Sub and Glenwood Sub......DRGW bought the rights to Colorado Railway's surveys on the Aspen Branch and through the Glenwood Canyon to control their access in some narrow or limited access places.

The 1883 Colorado Railway Survey through Gore Canyon figures prominently in the 1905 UPRR/Moffat DNW&P "Gore Canyon War" that also involved Teddy Roosevelt. CB&Q saved Moffat's butt for a price. (UP tried to kill off Moffat by damming the Gore Canyon with a phony water/hydro-electric project - Ironically, who owns the line today?)  Moffat's Chief Engineer, Horace Sumner, was part of that 1883 Colorado Railway field crew as an assistant locating engineer.

Excellent book on the Milwaukee Western Extension:

http://www.amazon.com/Milwaukee-Roads-Western-Extension-Transcontinental/dp/0972335668

Stan Johnson did a really nice job explaining what evolved instead of just publishing another worthless cofffeetable book with pictures of the railroad's shiny toys.

The CB&Q corporate records reside in the Newberry Library in Chicago (west of the Loop)...CNW's records are scattered between Chicago & Iowa City. (still exist, hard to access)

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Posted by Murphy Siding on Tuesday, March 15, 2011 2:13 PM

henry6

About libraries and train/railroad books:  1) too often library people don't know the differences between model and toy trains and real railroad history, operations, pictures. etc.  so books can be mixed between two Dewey number locations, you've got to check both places on the shelves as well as regular and oversized locations for both.  2) if you can't find it in your library, search through the system or ask your librarian to search by title or heading for books in other libraries.. 

   I have no trouble getting the nice librarian at the reference desk to find booksfor me  through the inter-library loan system.  I've found the easiest way, is to give her ISBN numbers.  The problem I have, is finding titles of books that look interesting enough to pursue.

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Posted by henry6 on Tuesday, March 15, 2011 10:48 AM

About libraries and train/railroad books:  1) too often library people don't know the differences between model and toy trains and real railroad history, operations, pictures. etc.  so books can be mixed between two Dewey number locations, you've got to check both places on the shelves as well as regular and oversized locations for both.  2) if you can't find it in your library, search through the system or ask your librarian to search by title or heading for books in other libraries.. 

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Posted by Paul_D_North_Jr on Tuesday, March 15, 2011 10:10 AM

Murphy Siding
  Our city has 4 libraries.  I can honestly say that I've read every railroad book in those 4 libraries.  I've also read just about every railroad book that my friendly librarian can find for me through inter-library loans.  I also own 100+ railroad books of all types. (And given away another couple of dozen.)  The problem I have, is in finding titles of good books.

     If there is a book out there that explains the decision process behind the PCE,  I haven't run accross it yet.  Any mention of it in a book about the Milwaukee Road seems to be written by a fan,  explaining what a great milestone it was for the railroad.  If you think of any titles you'd suggest, please let me know.  Thanks 

  Don't know if it addresses your question, but anyway:  Have you read The Nation Pays Again: The Demise of The Milwaukee Road 1928-1986 by Thomas H. Ploss (self-published, 1986) ? (a former MILW staff attorney [and evidently an internal dissident] )   

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Posted by Paul_D_North_Jr on Tuesday, March 15, 2011 10:01 AM

I vote for the explanation submitted by greyhounds above, for a couple of reasons. 

First, for historical context, since no date was provided yet above:  "Chicago, Burlington & Quincy Railroad . . . Control acquired by Great Northern and Northern Pacific in 1901." (from the "BNSF Railway Merger Family Tree" here at: http://trn.trains.com/en/Railroad%20Reference/Railroad%20History/2006/06/BNSF%20Railway%20merger%20family%20tree.aspx )  So that supports the post. 

Second:  In a previous thread on this subject within the last year, I noted that Charles and Dorothy Wood in their book Milwaukee Road - West (Superior Publishing, 1972) stated that the impetus for that extension was to avoid being "marginalized" (my wording) by the other Upper Mid-West railroads that surrounded them, to avoid being left with just the local branch line agricultural and some urban traffic.  I didn't quite understand that at the time, but now it makes perfect sense with the facts as organized by greyhounds.  That is entirely typical and predictable behavior by members of a cartel - just as in poker, if you don't ante up with your own line, then you have to fold and leave the game - which the MILW was unwilling to do.  Add to that the interlocking directors - chiefly John Ryan of Anaconda Copper in Butte needing another railroad to compete with the NP, as I recall - and you can see where the momentum was heading.

Third:  See George W. Hilton's several articles on that behavior in Trains from the 1960's and 1970's, as follows:   

the ICC must go
from Trains January 1967  p. 36

 

Ralph Nader takes on the Interstate Commerce Commission
from Trains November 1970  p. 44
icc 

 

transportation is a cartel, and ICC is running it
from Trains October 1972  p. 24

 

changes in demand for rail service; inappropriate cost-cutting measures
from Trains May 1974  p. 20

 

discussion of Interstate Commerce Commission
from Trains June 1978  p. 28

 

The case for disinvestment
from Trains January 1971  p. 27

 

difficulties and problems of slack
from Trains February 1976  p. 22

 

 

the classic redundant railroad
from Trains August 1973  p. 58

 

No, there were no guarantees of the sort you point out - and that became painfully evident as the MILW went into bankruptcy in the otherwise economically good 1920's (I believe), and many other railroads did later on.  But it did take the factor of price competition as between 2 or more railroads off the table for shippers, and so "leveled the playing field" in that respect - so they would then compete on the basis of seemingly non-monetary aspects of the business, such as "service", speed/ transit time (the MILW's extension was supposedly 18 miles shorter than the NP's, if that really mattered to anyone - and had better grades, per: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicago,_Milwaukee,_St._Paul_and_Pacific_Railroad ), car supply, golf games, etc., etc. 

- Paul North. 

"This Fascinating Railroad Business" (title of 1943 book by Robert Selph Henry of the AAR)
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Posted by Murphy Siding on Tuesday, March 15, 2011 9:42 AM

henry6

There are quite a few good books on the Hill Lines as well as MLW...Northwest railroading has a big fan base and your library surely has these books.

  Our city has 4 libraries.  I can honestly say that I've read every railroad book in those 4 libraries.  I've also read just about every railroad book that my friendly librarian can find for me through inter-library loans.  I also own 100+ railroad books of all types. (And given away another couple of dozen.)  The problem I have, is in finding titles of good books.

     If there is a book out there that explains the decision process behind the PCE,  I haven't run accross it yet.  Any mention of it in a book about the Milwaukee Road seems to be written by a fan,  explaining what a great milestone it was for the railroad.  If you think of any titles you'd suggest, please let me know.  Thanks

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Posted by Murphy Siding on Tuesday, March 15, 2011 9:10 AM

     greyhounds-  I see where you're coming from, but.....  Even if the rates were set by the government, that was no guarantee that there would be enough business to go around, or, as history later pointed out, enough to support all competitors in the northwest.   Nor, was there any kind of guarantee that the Milwaukee could get any of that  business at all. 

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Posted by Victrola1 on Tuesday, March 15, 2011 9:04 AM

I remember reading the C&NW Cowboy Line was considered for expansion to the West coast. The CB&Q did surveys on a line from Denver to Salt Lake City.

Why did these Grangers not expand farther west? Are there corporate records on the subject?

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Posted by jrbernier on Tuesday, March 15, 2011 8:07 AM

  Since the Hill Lines bought the CB&Q, both the Milw and the C&NW lost a lot of through business they picked up in St Paul and forwarded to Chicago.  The Milw had trans-con ambitions and decided to build the Pacific Extension.  There appeared to be a lot of traffic available, but there several issues:

  • The GN basically controlled the Seattle waterfront and had contracts with the shipping companies.
  • The NP basically controlled Tacoma.  The Milw wound up building their small Pacific terminal in the Tacoma Tide Flats Yard.
  • The Pacific Extension cost much more to actually build that estimated, and electrification was needed to be able to really move the traffic in the mountain districts.
  • The Panama Canal slowed import traffic for the railroads to a crawl for a number of years,

  The Milw wound up with massive debt.  Add the traffic taken away by the Panama Canal, and the Milw never really recovered financially and went into receivership.  Even after re-organization, the debt load kept the Milw throttled...

Jim

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Posted by henry6 on Tuesday, March 15, 2011 7:03 AM

There are quite a few good books on the Hill Lines as well as MLW...Northwest railroading has a big fan base and your library surely has these books.

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Posted by greyhounds on Monday, March 14, 2011 11:00 PM

I believe the Milwaukee Road Pacific Coast Extension was built to gain entrance to a government sanctioned and enforced railroad cartel.

The original "St. Paul", later the "Milwaukee",  had made a good return to investors by linking the northern transcons, which terminated at St. Paul, with Chicago and eastern connections.  In this situation, the St. Paul was a profitable part of the cartel.

When those two northern transcons bought the CB&Q and their own route to ChiTown, the St. Paul had a problem.  They would get cut out.  What to do?

They decided to build on out to Seattle and get cut back in to the cartel.  The government had a really bad idea that the right thing to do was to enforce rail rate levels that allowed the weakest, least efficient, railroad serving an origin-destination pair to be financially successful.   So there was little percieved risk.  The government would enforce prices that  would make the PCE finacially successful.  Heck fire, why not build it!  The government would see to it that the general population would suffer and bear the cost of excess rail capacity.

It wasn't the first rail line to be built to gain entrance to a cartel, and it probably wasn't the last. (A cartel uses too many economic resources, such as railroad capacity, to produce a given economic output.  A monopoly uses too few.  Niether one is desireable.)

But the government lost control of the cartel soon after the PCE was built as motor freight developed.  A knowledgeable, enlightened government (I know, dream on) would never have enforced the cartel.  Just let the market forces work and the public would have been generally better off.  But then, the likes of one Joseph B. Eastman wouldn't have enjoyed his exhaulted government job in that case.

More on him later.  I've just ordered his 1952 biography from an Amazon dealer.   

 

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Posted by Falcon48 on Monday, March 14, 2011 10:05 PM

I'm going to be interested in seeing a knowledgeable repy to this myself. It's always been difficult for me to understand what they were thinking, particularly since there were already 3 existing transcon routes to the Pacific Northwest (GN, NP and UP).  Probably it was in the nature of "if we build it, they will come", coupled with the euphoria in transportation investment (otherwise called a "bubble") of the times.  Remember, this was the same era that produced the ill-advised investment in interurban electrlc railroads.  Clearly, the investment in the Pacific Coast extension proved to be a mistake, as it ultimately bankrupted the comapny

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Transcontinental expansion business model
Posted by Murphy Siding on Monday, March 14, 2011 9:49 PM

     One hundred plus years ago, I'm sure most big businesses, railroads included, did  some serious investigation before investing in a major business expansion.  I've been trying to find the justification the Milwaukee Road envisioned for it's Pacific Coast Extention built in 1909.

     By then, there were 5 American transcons: UP(1869),  ATSF(1882), SP(1883), NP(1883) and GN(1893).  There was also a true Transcontinental north of the border.  CP(1889) went from Atlantic to Pacific. 

      If there was a big need to get freight to or from the Pacific coast, it would seem like there was ample railroad capacity already in place.  I'd have to believe, that a fair amount of heavy, low paying fright still went to the west coast by ship.  The trade coming from the orient was what?- tea, silk and spices?

     Given that the Chicago, Milwaukee & St. Paul didn't have a crystal ball, what did the directors use as justification to extend a midwest Grainger railroad to the Pacific?

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