Safety Valve wrote: bogp40 wrote: Mastiffdog wrote: R. T. POTEET wrote: Safety Valve wrote: No. The Hobby Shop takes your order and sends it to the Distributor. Usually you pay up front and then wait a year if ever. . . . . . . . . . (In) most cases the engine arrives then you need to pay it. That is where the problem of sight-unseen orders come in. If you discover that the engine does not run or other problems it will need to go back for repairs tying up the capital.I commented to username electrolove's similiar post of a few weeks past; I ain't ever gonna put money up front in this hobby for items which may or may not show up and which may or may not be worth what I pay for it if it does show up. I am not going to pre-finance these rinky-dink outfits products as this just becomes an excuse for them to develope the attitude that they can produce substandard merchandise. They were supposed to have had adequate capital to start in business in the first place and they are supposed to maintain adequate capital to stay in business.I didn't order my wife sight-unseen and I'm sure as aitch not going to order model railroad equipment that way either!!! RT, "rinky-dink" outfits? It is those cottage industries that not only bring some nice products to our hobby, but most importantly, it is the very fabric of what built commerce in our great country. There were these two guys name Dave and Bill who started a "Rinky-Dink" business in their garage back in the 1930's - Bill Hewlitt and Dave Packard. I see both points here, but I don't think that "Dave and Bill" would have taken preorders, say hand them a $1000.00 and wait until they finally were able to mass produce that printer, CP, etc. They needed the capital from thier investors not from future customers.No.PCM Established themselves soon after BLI set up. FDT came along very soon after. This is not some garage outfit trying to produce an engine.Regarding the capital, some of that should come out of previously sold inventory. If that is not happening then they must either be selling the items at a loss or pocketing all of the income without regard to future production runs.
bogp40 wrote: Mastiffdog wrote: R. T. POTEET wrote: Safety Valve wrote: No. The Hobby Shop takes your order and sends it to the Distributor. Usually you pay up front and then wait a year if ever. . . . . . . . . . (In) most cases the engine arrives then you need to pay it. That is where the problem of sight-unseen orders come in. If you discover that the engine does not run or other problems it will need to go back for repairs tying up the capital.I commented to username electrolove's similiar post of a few weeks past; I ain't ever gonna put money up front in this hobby for items which may or may not show up and which may or may not be worth what I pay for it if it does show up. I am not going to pre-finance these rinky-dink outfits products as this just becomes an excuse for them to develope the attitude that they can produce substandard merchandise. They were supposed to have had adequate capital to start in business in the first place and they are supposed to maintain adequate capital to stay in business.I didn't order my wife sight-unseen and I'm sure as aitch not going to order model railroad equipment that way either!!! RT, "rinky-dink" outfits? It is those cottage industries that not only bring some nice products to our hobby, but most importantly, it is the very fabric of what built commerce in our great country. There were these two guys name Dave and Bill who started a "Rinky-Dink" business in their garage back in the 1930's - Bill Hewlitt and Dave Packard. I see both points here, but I don't think that "Dave and Bill" would have taken preorders, say hand them a $1000.00 and wait until they finally were able to mass produce that printer, CP, etc. They needed the capital from thier investors not from future customers.
Mastiffdog wrote: R. T. POTEET wrote: Safety Valve wrote: No. The Hobby Shop takes your order and sends it to the Distributor. Usually you pay up front and then wait a year if ever. . . . . . . . . . (In) most cases the engine arrives then you need to pay it. That is where the problem of sight-unseen orders come in. If you discover that the engine does not run or other problems it will need to go back for repairs tying up the capital.I commented to username electrolove's similiar post of a few weeks past; I ain't ever gonna put money up front in this hobby for items which may or may not show up and which may or may not be worth what I pay for it if it does show up. I am not going to pre-finance these rinky-dink outfits products as this just becomes an excuse for them to develope the attitude that they can produce substandard merchandise. They were supposed to have had adequate capital to start in business in the first place and they are supposed to maintain adequate capital to stay in business.I didn't order my wife sight-unseen and I'm sure as aitch not going to order model railroad equipment that way either!!! RT, "rinky-dink" outfits? It is those cottage industries that not only bring some nice products to our hobby, but most importantly, it is the very fabric of what built commerce in our great country. There were these two guys name Dave and Bill who started a "Rinky-Dink" business in their garage back in the 1930's - Bill Hewlitt and Dave Packard.
R. T. POTEET wrote: Safety Valve wrote: No. The Hobby Shop takes your order and sends it to the Distributor. Usually you pay up front and then wait a year if ever. . . . . . . . . . (In) most cases the engine arrives then you need to pay it. That is where the problem of sight-unseen orders come in. If you discover that the engine does not run or other problems it will need to go back for repairs tying up the capital.I commented to username electrolove's similiar post of a few weeks past; I ain't ever gonna put money up front in this hobby for items which may or may not show up and which may or may not be worth what I pay for it if it does show up. I am not going to pre-finance these rinky-dink outfits products as this just becomes an excuse for them to develope the attitude that they can produce substandard merchandise. They were supposed to have had adequate capital to start in business in the first place and they are supposed to maintain adequate capital to stay in business.I didn't order my wife sight-unseen and I'm sure as aitch not going to order model railroad equipment that way either!!!
Safety Valve wrote: No. The Hobby Shop takes your order and sends it to the Distributor. Usually you pay up front and then wait a year if ever. . . . . . . . . . (In) most cases the engine arrives then you need to pay it. That is where the problem of sight-unseen orders come in. If you discover that the engine does not run or other problems it will need to go back for repairs tying up the capital.
No. The Hobby Shop takes your order and sends it to the Distributor. Usually you pay up front and then wait a year if ever. . . . . . . . . . (In) most cases the engine arrives then you need to pay it. That is where the problem of sight-unseen orders come in. If you discover that the engine does not run or other problems it will need to go back for repairs tying up the capital.
RT, "rinky-dink" outfits? It is those cottage industries that not only bring some nice products to our hobby, but most importantly, it is the very fabric of what built commerce in our great country.
There were these two guys name Dave and Bill who started a "Rinky-Dink" business in their garage back in the 1930's - Bill Hewlitt and Dave Packard.
I see both points here, but I don't think that "Dave and Bill" would have taken preorders, say hand them a $1000.00 and wait until they finally were able to mass produce that printer, CP, etc. They needed the capital from thier investors not from future customers.
No.
PCM Established themselves soon after BLI set up. FDT came along very soon after. This is not some garage outfit trying to produce an engine.
Regarding the capital, some of that should come out of previously sold inventory. If that is not happening then they must either be selling the items at a loss or pocketing all of the income without regard to future production runs.
Safety Valve,The hobby shops cannot get them at a good price? I believe they are a so-called "short discount" but BLI isn't the only one doing that. Are you going to go after all manufacturers that offer short discounts?
I don't think that FDT is "blowing them out" the day they are released. FDT has been selling refurbs and older "brand new" items that BLI/PCM is trying to get rid of. But blowing out just-released items? I haven't seen it. And FDT isn't the only one "blowing out" items. All those mailorder houses in the magazines have had excess stock blow outs for decades. P2K especially.
As to why pre-order with FDT around... I think the question is this: Do you want the item at the price they list it at? If the answer is yes, then order & buy it. If not, don't buy it. If you still want it but only at a lower price, take your chance with eBay, FDT, train shows, and yard sales. You may get lucky, you may not. But why complain? You know if you don't pre-order, you have no guarantee that you are getting it. What's the big deal?
I think we all prefer to buy things that we can see, and a good hobby shop will allow you to do so (IOW, allow returns at no charge). But as for Atlas or Athearn, etc....They, too, take pre-orders.
So far, the only difference I see between Atlas or Athearn and BLI/PCM is that Atlas and Athearn will commit to a delivery date and release said item with or without any pre-orders at all (tho' they use the pre-order to determine how many to make plus a few extra). BLI/PCM, OTOH, will only make an item if they receive enough pre-orders, which makes their delivery date flexible.
But please note: neither Atlas, Athearn, or P2K have ever done a NYC Hudson, PRR K-4, NH I-5, and so on. Heck, Atlas doesn't even make steam in HO, and Athearn and P2K are pretty much making generic steam power. BLI/PCM is pretty much the only one making road specific steam locos. So I look at our options here: put up with BLI's pre-order policy, or get generic steam from someone else. I don't know about you, but I'll be taking my pre-ordered NH I-5 and will be running the wheels off it whenever it shows up.
BTW, if you want real shipping delays, try Railworks and their brass NH "Comet" train. That was a couple years late, but they did finally release it (for $1500).
Paul A. Cutler III************Weather Or No Go New Haven************
Paul3 wrote: Bob,I don't think BLI/PCM is paying for the tooling with pre-order cash. I have pre-ordered the BLI NH I-5, and they haven't asked for a penny.Personally, I don't see anything wrong with what BLI/PCM is doing WRT pre-orders. The brass market has been that way for years, and I haven't seen any backlash against them. What gives? So they ask you to pre-order. Big deal. As long as you can cancel it or send it back at no charge once you get it, why should it matter?Paul A. Cutler III************Weather Or No Go New Haven************
Bob,I don't think BLI/PCM is paying for the tooling with pre-order cash. I have pre-ordered the BLI NH I-5, and they haven't asked for a penny.
Personally, I don't see anything wrong with what BLI/PCM is doing WRT pre-orders. The brass market has been that way for years, and I haven't seen any backlash against them. What gives? So they ask you to pre-order. Big deal. As long as you can cancel it or send it back at no charge once you get it, why should it matter?
It matters when the Hobby Shop cannot get them at a good price. FDT blows em out the day they get to the release with a price so low it's almost totally bypassing the Distribution/Hobby Shop system. With that going on, why bother pre-ordering? It will show up on Ebay, FDT or outlet direct at some point after release.
My two hobby shops will take my pre-order but as I stated before I prefer to buy the product that is availible and sometimes that is with someone else like Proto, Athearn or Atlas etc... they produce products "On-time" within a few weeks of thier announcement ETA without fanfare. I dont see these other manufactors issuing meters to count pre-orders to a pre-determined Minimum number needed to produce the durn thing.
I dont know; Im just one customer who is glad that I got what steam I did when I did because I dont think half the stuff will be availible again by BLI and associates.
Modeling B&O- Chessie Bob K. www.ssmrc.org
PRE-ORDER or ELSE!
http://www.tonystrainexchange.com/tonystips/2007/053107.htm
Nah. Still can't do it.
I'll be just fine with my two boys.
"Being misunderstood is the fate of all true geniuses"
EXPERIMENTATION TO BRING INNOVATION
http://community.webshots.com/album/288541251nntnEK?start=588
gmpullman Im going to say that the 30 dollar cost of the upgrade chip is so worth the effort. I have a dedicated thread about this and am literally waiting on the mailbox any day for the chip to arrive. I anticipate having a good running engine become even better. And poke an eye into that little peice of lawsuiting that removed or casterated some of these features in the first place.
In fact, if that engine was not to be "Upgradeable" I may have considered ordering another copy of that engine as a replacement. Or going with a different engine from another manufactor that already has the upgraded software that I crave.
I think it is QSI who is the ultimate profit taker of my 30 dollars, NOT Broadway. In fact, I think that BLI got rid of QSI because of royalties.
I would loved to have ordered the item through the hobby shops here at home but due to the speed of the internet and the accuracy of the information I chose to get the widget direct, or nearly so.
Simon1966, I say to you that there is a growing reluctance or outright refusal to stock BLI/PCM items simply because the FDT Blowout style pricing cannot be matched by the Distributors, the Hobby shop etc. It's not going to work.
Also there is a growing sense of distrbutors refusing to accept returned product and refund to the store. The store will eat the cost of storing the item on the shelf and waiting for it to sell. Sadly many savvy customers will buy a identical item off ebay, FDT or other site on the net for way less. That will break our hobby shops more than anything.
Dave Vollmer I do want the B&O Pacific from PCM. But if this engine does not enter production I will not waste my time, effort or worry about this item. If it did enter production I will certainly get a copy. But that is the key, it HAS to enter production. Or forget it. In fact.. Im considering walking totally away from the Steam Pacific entirely and settling on any number of E units that might be offered by Proto for this particular train. Worst case scenario I can sell the trainset and use the money for something else that IS availible.
Maybe a GG1 and a PRR passenger set for it to pull LOL.
It should be quite clear to everyone that there is no need to put down any money to pre-order a model from BLI, PCM or anyone else for that matter. There are plenty of dealers that will accept the order and not expect a down-payment. In theory, we the modellers are not taking a risk, because, I assume if the model shows up and we don't like it, either for performance or detail reasons it can be returned. Is the LHS then stiffed, or do the BLI/PCM return policies allow "special orders" to be returned to them?
Simon Modelling CB&Q and Wabash See my slowly evolving layout on my picturetrail site http://www.picturetrail.com/simontrains and our videos at http://www.youtube.com/user/MrCrispybake?feature=mhum
Not all dealers take your cash on the pre-order.
I use Jerry Britton's Merchandise Service onliner Pennsy superstore to pre-order the N scale PRR 4-8-2. Because of PCM's unreliablility, he dropped his $25 non-refundable deposit and now takes no cash till it's delivered.
Listen, I hate the PCM marketing strategy as much as all of you, but if you really want the model and you don't pre-order it, you have yourself to blame when it doesn't get made.
Find yourself a decent dealer that won't take your cash up-front.
Modeling the Rio Grande Southern First District circa 1938-1946 in HOn3.
And another thing...
I have both a NYC streamlined Hudson and an L-4 Mohawk "preordered" through Tony's Train Exchange. Both these models are listed in the PCM/BLI website as "not enough preorders" to produce...
YET there has been no announcements or advertisements in the MR press. If it had not been for some of these forum postings (thanks to T. Stage) I would never have known about these locomotives that I most certainly want and am willing to pay for.
I was one of the first in line to buy the BLI NYC Hudson 001, as most of us modellers know, the first production run may have some bugs, but BLI had a solution... just return the locomotive to us, along with $100.00 and we will send you a "new and improved" upgrade version, after I've already paid $275.00 for the first one! What a marketing ploy! THEN they come up with the QSI "upgrade" chip... ANOTHER $30, and we will let you open your tender and pry out the stock chip and you can get the performance your locomotive was designed for after you install our "new and improved" chip...
SO... how does PCM/BLI expect to get preorders when they don't even advertise their future existence? I hope GM doesn't resort to this marketing scheme for their cars!!! Send us $30,000 and someday, maybe, we might make the car you've been looking for!
Gee, I have a taste for a steak. I'll go to the grocery store, plunk down $50. and wait for the calf to be born... don't light the grill just yet!
OK, sorry... just a rant on the current state of "marketing techniques"
Midnight Railroader wrote: PFS wrote: bpickering wrote:........If it weren't for the preorder process, my favorite game would almost-certainly be dead by now.....ASL??Best ever, IMHO...except for the original SL, that is!
PFS wrote: bpickering wrote:........If it weren't for the preorder process, my favorite game would almost-certainly be dead by now.....ASL??Best ever, IMHO
bpickering wrote:........If it weren't for the preorder process, my favorite game would almost-certainly be dead by now.....
ASL??
Best ever, IMHO
Exactly! I do stand corrected :)
Steady on guys ....
..... BLI/PCM HAVE changed the face of the hobby in the last few years. They HAVE produced some fantastic products and as such must be seen as a trustworthy company. But modern diecast patterns are very, very expensive, selling margins are low so companies can't afford to have product sat in wharehouses not selling. BLI/PCM are certainly not the only firm doing this - most brass importers and Intermountain (to name but one) are also doing it. They are probably the most open about it though (surely a good thing?)
I don't like pre-ordering very much, but when something that I want comes up I'll take the chance if the company has a reasonable track record. I did with the BLI SW7 and was not disapointed. It also depends on your hobby store when they take the money - I ordered my SW7 from Tony's Trains and they didn't charge my credit card until it shipped - I guess they took a credit line but you don't pay interest on that. Very satisfied with Tony's regularly do business with them. I guess it will be the same when I pre-order my Intermountain U-18Bs (when Intermountain ever get round to releasing a price!!!)
......
PS whoever it was who complained about gas prices, all I can say is this: don't any American complain about gas prices until they pay European gas prices (price at the pump today here is the equivalent of about $8.50 per gallon)
Sorry for off-topic kids
twhite wrote: AggroJones wrote: http://precisioncraftmodels.com/PCM---SP-Cab-Forward-AC-12-4-8-8-2,-HO-c3146.htmlOUCH! Check out the meter! This kinda really blows. But I still refuse to preorder anything. Gotta see it before making the decision to purchase. Learned my lesson from preordering Broadway's SF 3751. Chea...they ship me a gray locomotive with 3 air pumps. I may just have to get the Intermoutain AC-12 and swap out the motor with a faster one. second run of the AC-12 will end up having the speed and pulling power the loco's supposed to. We can hope. Tom
AggroJones wrote: http://precisioncraftmodels.com/PCM---SP-Cab-Forward-AC-12-4-8-8-2,-HO-c3146.htmlOUCH! Check out the meter! This kinda really blows. But I still refuse to preorder anything. Gotta see it before making the decision to purchase. Learned my lesson from preordering Broadway's SF 3751. Chea...they ship me a gray locomotive with 3 air pumps. I may just have to get the Intermoutain AC-12 and swap out the motor with a faster one.
http://precisioncraftmodels.com/PCM---SP-Cab-Forward-AC-12-4-8-8-2,-HO-c3146.html
OUCH! Check out the meter! This kinda really blows. But I still refuse to preorder anything. Gotta see it before making the decision to purchase. Learned my lesson from preordering Broadway's SF 3751. Chea...they ship me a gray locomotive with 3 air pumps.
I may just have to get the Intermoutain AC-12 and swap out the motor with a faster one.
second run of the AC-12 will end up having the speed and pulling power the loco's supposed to. We can hope.
Tom
I figure they have to.
What were they thinking? This ain't no shay! LOL
25 mph max isn't acceptable for the pennicle of the the ACs.
Safety Valve wrote: Other companies, if they move fast enough can generate a B&O Pacific in direct challenge to PCM and ultimately the modelers like me will spend our money on the best unit availible. I could always go back to the generic IHC pacific but it wont be the same.
Other companies, if they move fast enough can generate a B&O Pacific in direct challenge to PCM and ultimately the modelers like me will spend our money on the best unit availible. I could always go back to the generic IHC pacific but it wont be the same.
If memory serves me right, the P7 was one of the original locomotives PCM announced when they first formed...
navygunner, Your budget is way larger than mine. However I recall in the past when I order something I usually have the funds ready, pre-paid or arranged to make the purchase happen once the model did arrive. Nothing pleases me as a customer to actually take home something that was ordered and produced in good time.
When I heard about the PCM 2-10-0 I was overjoyed but disappointed because they need to have the much bigger tender than the small ones did in the orginal announcement. I emailed PCM and was given a positive response but no commitment. Eventually recently I was to learn about the new large tenders that will be produced with the engine.. excellent NEWS! One of these is on order. I might get two. But first things first.
Now. The B&O Pacific. I would love to have one of these but if you had a place on the PCM website that showed a number of pre-orders needed remaining before they commit to production, you probably will learn pretty precisely what number of units will be made in a production run.
No. I say there is a market in the hobby for everything. Just might not be in numbers that might be desireable for a great deal of profitability sought after by Companies.
I understand the pain of preordering from PCM. When they announced the H2a hoppers in N Scale, I preordered all 8 sets of N&W. I based my purchase decision on the website photos of the model. This represented a commitment to over $1000.00. My financial philosophy is to have the money in the bank when the preorder is made. I do not prepay, but always have the cash on hand for the transaction. When the company changed their excuse for not producing the model for the third time over several years; I gave up on them as it was apparent to me that they were expecting me to turn a blind eye to the excuses. I noticed that the 'orderometer' is not present on the H2a page and the the delivery page still shows them a "TBD" as of this post. I hope that they do eventualy make the H2a hoppers as they are very nice models, if the photos accurately represent them. I would even consider reordering those sets, if PCM could convince me that they were going to be made.
Those 48 cars would have went a long way towards builing my dream drag of a class Y and class A pulling 100 33' hoppers with another class Y pushing.
The $1000.00 that I set aside for the PCM hoppers was well spent on a Benchmark Yellowstone in DMIR paint. It's not vaporware, but I think that PBL overestimated the demand for this item. Their website describes the production run as 25 or less units in each road number. Most are still available and I strongly recommend them to anyone with broad curves. I have also found 25 MTL hoppers of various eastern road names.
My next preorder (going in this weekend) will be for both LifeLike N&W DCC Y3's and both NKP 0-8-0 switchers, along with 30 or 40 Atlas black dimi data 33' hoppers. I have reasonable assurance that these will be made on time or without any unreasonable delays. I'm holding out for another run of peaked end hoppers in dimi data to complete my drag. I'm also hoping for an N Scale class A.
My last preorder was for the Athearn CRR Challenger. It was delayed for a while. The excuse of quality control was reasonable and believable. The quality of the product justified the delay. I have the second CRR Challenger on preorder too. Athearn was very up front on the production status. They posted updates on their website as the status changed. Not knowing the production numbers for the first run, I would have to guess that they under estimated the demand, as the second run was announced very quickly.
An example of a company that is able to guage their market pretty well is Kato. They are on the third run of the CZ. They have a policy of not announcing until the product is on the boat. All of the products that I have gotten from them are pretty scarce on the hobby shop shelves, but still available online for a few weeks after they arrive.
I hope that PCM turns the corner and are able to better communicate with their customers. It would be nice to see the number of preorders still needed instead of the orderometer.
Aggro--
I would pre-order a loco if the mfgr would show me a photograph of the MODEL, but never if all they can do is offer a photo of the prototype. And quite frankly, I think that considering PCM?BLI's track record the past couple of years, it's going to be a long, LONG time before we see the model.
Maybe Intermountain's second run of the AC-12 will end up having the speed and pulling power the loco's supposed to. We can hope.
Tom View my layout photos! http://s299.photobucket.com/albums/mm310/TWhite-014/Rio%20Grande%20Yuba%20River%20Sub One can NEVER have too many Articulateds!
Virginian, I think you illustrate the problem well. In fact it is even harder to get right. How many to make total? What road names to make? What break down between DC, DCC, sound? One model project might have a dozen or so variations. What I said was that in "an ideal world" this would be simple, but it is not.
I think that what has caused the problem for many is the apparent rapid swing of the pendulum from seemingly over production followed by fire-sale, to very cautious pre-order only.
All those who just REFUSE to pre-order, prepare to be running nothing more than the equipment you already own, or more generic models. It's only a matter of time before Walthers/P2K moves to this same pre-order method. They are pretty much the last ones left making at least somewhat specific models that don't do preorders. Atlas has been doing it for a while now, and now BLI/PCM. Face facts, these companies don't sell enough, ESPECIALLY of a very specifically detailed loco, to build some quantity with an unknown sale potential. Remember the early days of BLI? Sound loocs avaialble at close-out prices that were less than the cost of just the sound decoder, because they sat around in inventory. Remember how everyone was moaning about how this must mean BLI was going bankrupt? Right here in these very forums. And in all likelyhood it probably almost did. Remember there was a huge lag after the first couple of models before any more became available?
ANd remember, this works both ways. How many of you have been unable to find a model you wanted because it was produced in limited quantities and sold out? If you have one on order you are at least guarenteed of getting one in your hands. And at least with the people I deal with, you are under no obligation to take the model if there is something wrong with it.
I pre-ordered my PCM T-1, and have been very happy with it. Don't think a particular sound is correct? Loksound lets you change the sounds.
--Randy
Modeling the Reading Railroad in the 1950's
Visit my web site at www.readingeastpenn.com for construction updates, DCC Info, and more.
Virginian wrote: I think you guys are asking too much. You want the maker/distributor/whatever-you-call-it to accurately gauge the market, without using anything to do so.
I think you guys are asking too much. You want the maker/distributor/whatever-you-call-it to accurately gauge the market, without using anything to do so.
In fact, companies building model railroad merchandise did and do so, too.
Yes, it takes work and yes, it takes risk. That's part of running a business.
I think you guys are asking too much. You want the maker/distributor/whatever-you-call-it to accurately gauge the market, without using anything to do so. He must accurately gauge the market in order to have exactly the right number of items, and not charge too much up front, or sell any at the end via discount, on another website. If he goes ahead and makes a few too many and then sells the ones that do not go quickly fairly cheap, he gets castigated for that, too. Preorders is a way to try to accurately gauge the interest. But we don't like the online meter, we just want him to go ahead and make the particular model we want, because we want it, and darned soon. And because he has had the temerity to mess with us, he won't get our business, we'll just buy it from someone else... uh... wait a minute... I think maybe we are all caught up in a Catch 22.
I have not heard anyone requiring a pound of flesh on deposit, but I have not heard everything, yet.
Okay, you are a producer. You wanty to make a Mud Flats and Eastern 2-7-3 in the pre-war and post-war schemes. You have a decent estimate of the total cost to manufacture. How do you accurately gauge sales if you make it? And don't say just ask people, because every single study ever done shows that people lie. They just do. They lie about their age and earnings on anonymous surveys. So how should they do it?
spidge wrote:I just don't get it. Why don't the manufactureres do limited runs and if all goes well do another run a few months later. It seems to me that Microtrains does this very thing.
Because they are not actually manufacturers. Virtually all the companies we purchase from, and most certainly BLI, subcontract all their manufacturing to Chinese makers. They commit to a specific production run. The size of the production run they commit to is as a result of some basic business decisions. At some point a production run is too small to make any business sense. The cost of development, design and tool creation for the model has to be amortised over the entire run resulting in far too high costs for a small batch. At some point the production run is too large. If the number of locos shipped far exceeds the market demand, then the company faces having thousands of dollars tied up in dead inventory. Based on the continued fanfare from Factory Direct Trains, I think we can surmise that BLI had been way over producing. Now they are evidently being far more cautious.
In the ideal world the marketeers and decision makers at companies like BLI would know their market well enough to accurately predict demand for a model. They would then contract for a nice profitable run and neatly sell out. Not willing to take this decision themselves they are asking us to predict the market with pre-orders. The problem with this, as we already can see, is that many modellers are not willing to pre-order, either because they don't want to, or perhaps never even know about the proposed project in the first place. Projects that might actually do well may never get built.
John
Midnight Railroader wrote: R. T. POTEET wrote:I ain't ever gonna put money up front in this hobby for items which may or may not show up and which may or may not be worth what I pay for it if it does show up. I am not going to pre-finance these rinky-dink outfits products as this just becomes an excuse for them to develope the attitude that they can produce substandard merchandise. Exactly.Produce the product first, then sell it. Don't try to make customers your venture-capital angels. You've got to assume risk (Like Hewlett & Packard did) if you want to run a successful business, and asking customers to order what's essentially vaporware is a poor way to try to avoid that risk.
R. T. POTEET wrote:I ain't ever gonna put money up front in this hobby for items which may or may not show up and which may or may not be worth what I pay for it if it does show up. I am not going to pre-finance these rinky-dink outfits products as this just becomes an excuse for them to develope the attitude that they can produce substandard merchandise.
Produce the product first, then sell it. Don't try to make customers your venture-capital angels. You've got to assume risk (Like Hewlett & Packard did) if you want to run a successful business, and asking customers to order what's essentially vaporware is a poor way to try to avoid that risk.
I'll give you odds that the reason that FDT is sending all those sales is because they've found they ordered too many units relative to what actually sold. The idea of the pre-order is to gauge interest, and only produce what will actually sell, keeping the leftover inventory to a minimum.
I saw the same thing happen in the wargaming industry over the past decade. If it weren't for the preorder process, my favorite game would almost-certainly be dead by now. That publisher uses a similar process, albeit without the fancy graphic (see the Multiman Publishing preorder page). They actually put something up for pre-order when development is a product like 50% done- about the time that the next steps are the really intense in-house work like layout, and the expensive work like printing. If you look, you can see that there are a number which have hit their "P#", and so will go forward, while others are below the P#, and either are getting close (likely will eventually get enough interest, and therefore buyers) or nowhere near (and likely won't ever move forward). Note that initially, there was a LOT of resistance to this process, but it has resulted in a semi-steady output of quality produce, and nowadays, most of the gamers buying this product accept the process, even if they're not thrilled with it.
Finally, again, if your LHS is demanding the full price up-front, you DEFINITELY need to look somewhere else. I doubt that most of the manufacturers are requiring full price up-front for reservations, so the LHS is probably pocketing at least some (all?) of that money, getting to do with it what they want until such time as either a) the manufacturer delivers, or b) you decide to cancel your order. My LHS has placed a few orders for me (waiting for word that the BLI AC arrived...), and in most of the cases he has asked for no money down. He was originally going to do his Tower 55 orders like his brass orders (something like 20% down, IIRC), but eventually changed that policy, since I didn't need anything down for my ES44.
Overall, I think the PC AC would be beautiful, but I just can't justify that much money spent, at least until I've got more time to run something other than the Foamboard-Pacific.
BRAKIE wrote: BLI/PCM has had a poor QC track record in the past as well as many detail errors/paint on their locomotives..That will hurt their pre-orders as modelers are "gun shy" of ordering sight unseen.Now a lot of the club members are happy with their BLI locos but,will not pre-order them because some had problems with their Hudsons and SW7/NW2s.
BLI/PCM has had a poor QC track record in the past as well as many detail errors/paint on their locomotives..That will hurt their pre-orders as modelers are "gun shy" of ordering sight unseen.
Now a lot of the club members are happy with their BLI locos but,will not pre-order them because some had problems with their Hudsons and SW7/NW2s.
That is one reason I sold my first run NW and replaced it with a second run set that SEEMS to run ok, without the problems that plagued the first run (Front truck and reversed wiring)
Im not TOO picky about the paint when the engine hits the 3% grade it's time to earn it's pay and am concerned that Brass is the ultimate goal of this company.
My dealers do not charge me until the thing actually ships. However Im suffering apathy and enough is enough. Make life a little easier on everyone. More fun to go to the store or online and actually buy what will ship THAT week... not wait a year.
To the poster about the selective decisions on A and B unit pricing, I offer a supportive problem related to the E units. Apparently I can either buy an A-A for the B&O or go to Proto and get a Dummy B to go with the A and spend another 200 dollars to equipt the B unit with power, dcc and sound. I may just do it but first things first....
I would have bought all of that months ago almost instantly or via pre-order... except that Im a firm believer in all locomotives serving as it's own power, DCC and sound platform with each unit pulling it's share of the load. Not a A unit towing a 10 pound sled before the rest of the darn train.
Good call on the emailing. I finally unsubscribed because the Hobby Shops wont like to order, the discounters have the thing half off and the website is never updated to get rid of the gauge, MSRP pricing etc.
Now if anyone bothers to research my postings on the forum, they will find that I have been faith ful to BLI from the beginning ever since they got back into HO steam in a big way with that Hudson. I have several of thier engines and think enough of them to actually budget an upgrade of the QSI chip to get Back EMF (THANKS for nutting lawsuiters!) I oughta charge them the 30 dollars per unit at the court.
It's been a long road and a enjoyable one. But if this is what the future holds, I definatly dont want to be a part of it.
Especially as I have said before, other manufactors consistently produces and makes availible a variety of engines on time, on schedule. and without much fanfare. Kinda hard to enjoy an item when the Marketing team has beat the dead horse long before it arrives anywhere.