So, how many of us are there?

[on30francisco]

I've never heard any negative comments when I tell people I do model railroading. Maybe it's because I live in the San Francisco Bay Area which is known for its tolerance toward people with off-beat interests (like me). I know there's a big narrow gauge community in the South Bay that I'd like to get involved with but don't know how (I'm a narrow gauger). As far as others are concerned, I see a lot of people in this area who seem to have hobbies (obsessions) involving spending their time and money on overpriced trendy restaurants, yuppie coffee shops, upscale stores and buying a bunch of designer junk they don't need. Compared to what they spend on those things, this is indeed a very cheap hobby!

[Shilshole]

Last I read, N Scale magazine only had around 11,000 readers and that figure was steadily shrinking. I don't have figures for either N Scale Railroading  or NG&SLG (they should be available in their January 2007 issues, would someone care to check and report back?) but I don't expect they have a much greater circulation than NSR, especially the latter, which is really a niche magazine.

The Gazette is a bimonthly, therefore the next issue will be January/February, 2007.  Circulation is roughly 50% higher than NScale's, based on the 11000 figure.

From the Nov/Dec 2006 Gazette, p. 100, Total Paid or Requested Circulation (ave.)= 15330; Mail Subscriptions = 7475.
From the Nov/Dec 2005 Gazette, p.  79, Total Paid or Requested Circulation (ave.) = 15664; Mail Subscriptions = 7533.
From the Nov/Dec 2004 Gazette, p. 103, Total Paid or Requested Circulation (ave.)= 15735; Mail Subscriptions = 7422.

These data mean what, exactly, regarding how many participate in model railroading?

 

[Dave-the-Train]

I don't even remotely care what people think!

I always tell people that I do American Toy Trains.  They go blank, take the Mickey or take some interest.  In the last case I try to be very careful to keep what I say varied and not over-detailed.

A lot of the people I work with support football teams (the real kind of football)... I however like American Football (after Rugby Union and Rugby League)... there's no clear ballerinas or out-and-out cheats allowed to stay on the field.  Whatever... I wind all of the football/soccer guys up at every opportunity... especially if they support Scotland.

The thing I can't stand is electronic gamers.    One place I'm surrounded by them... they go on line and play with each other every evening and then discuss what they did last night all the next day at work.  If anyone thinks that Toy Trains are sad they should meet these guys!

[CNJ831]

Last I read, N Scale magazine only had around 11,000 readers and that figure was steadily shrinking. I don't have figures for either N Scale Railroading  or NG&SLG (they should be available in their January 2007 issues, would someone care to check and report back?) but I don't expect they have a much greater circulation than NSR, especially the latter, which is really a niche magazine.

The Gazette is a bimonthly, therefore the next issue will be January/February, 2007.  Circulation is roughly 50% higher than NScale's, based on the 11000 figure.

From the Nov/Dec 2006 Gazette, p. 100, Total Paid or Requested Circulation (ave.)= 15330; Mail Subscriptions = 7475.
From the Nov/Dec 2005 Gazette, p.  79, Total Paid or Requested Circulation (ave.) = 15664; Mail Subscriptions = 7533.
From the Nov/Dec 2004 Gazette, p. 103, Total Paid or Requested Circulation (ave.)= 15735; Mail Subscriptions = 7422.

These data mean what, exactly, regarding how many participate in model railroading?

Taken as a whole (all magazines together), the numbers suggest that there are probably no more than 200,000 people reading model railroading magazines and the number could be decidedly smaller since most of us get two or more publications a month. From that number it is quite reasonable to assume that the total ranks of reasonably "realistic-type" hobbyists, which I take means folks who actually model in scale to at least some skill level and which was what the original poster asked about, could hardly be more than 150% of that figure. Legions of serious, yet phantom, hobbyists simply don't exist and I have to think even 300,000 hobbyists is probably pushing it (in its own surveys, MR never claimed there were more than 250,000 persons involved in model railroading, even at the hobby's probable zenith 10-15 years ago).

CNJ831 

[modelalaska]

With the Internet, judging population of this group by magazine subscriptions is going to be flawed I think. I dropped mine because of the coast and I get everything I need off this forums. (don't tell anyone). :) Peter

[BRAKIE]

With the Internet, judging population of this group by magazine subscriptions is going to be flawed I think. I dropped mine because of the coast and I get everything I need off this forums. (don't tell anyone). :) Peter

 

Frankly I need my magazines far more then any forum.I need the on line shops far more then I do  any forum.I need on line research more then forums.

If all I use my computer for was forums then I would not need a computer except for the above name items.However,since I do have a computer then I do forums..However,I feel I will drop 2 more forums before much longer.

[Dave Vollmer]

With the Internet, judging population of this group by magazine subscriptions is going to be flawed I think. I dropped mine because of the coast and I get everything I need off this forums. (don't tell anyone). :) Peter

 

Frankly I need my magazines far more then any forum.I need the on line shops far more then I do  any forum.I need on line research more then forums.

If all I use my computer for was forums then I would not need a computer except for the above name items.However,since I do have a computer then I do forums..However,I feel I will drop 2 more forums before much longer.

{Yakov Smirnoff voice}:

"In Soviet Russia, forum drops YOU!"

[Shilshole]

These data mean what, exactly, regarding how many participate in model railroading?

Taken as a whole (all magazines together), the numbers suggest that there are probably no more than 200,000 people reading model railroading magazines and the number could be decidedly smaller since most of us get two or more publications a month. From that number it is quite reasonable to assume that the total ranks of reasonably "realistic-type" hobbyists, which I take means folks who actually model in scale to at least some skill level and which was what the original poster asked about, could hardly be more than 150% of that figure...

Only if one considers magazine subscriptions to be an accurate proxy for participation in model railroading.  So far, that hasn't been established.

I started woodworking and brewing in 1998 and have yet to subscribe to, and rarely purchase, any of the various magazines focused on those hobbies.  All the information I want and need to make sawdust and alcohol, and plenty that I don't, is available online.  Online discussions in wood and beer forums indicate that I'm far from alone in that regard.  I would guess (but of course having no hard supporting data) that there are plenty of 'realistic-type' non-tinplate/non-Thomas model railroaders, both experienced and tyros, who have the same approach with respect to gathering information and inspiration for their hobby.

That said, I doubt if there are more than a quarter million dedicated scale model railroaders in the US, based on the $500M/year figure thrown out in the fluff-news article.

[rtraincollector]

Here's a little of a hint for you you know I live in basically hooter-ville from green acres I've told you that before well I also have told you that a friend opened a hobby shop here about a year ago well hes doing well enough to bring 1 on part time and me occasionally and he basically sells just train items he doesn't have the remote control cars he does have a small area of airplanes as his son is into that and a few (maybe 15-20 ) the die cast collectible cars but other than that hes about 65 % O gauge 25% HO scale and about 10% G gauge. And we have developed a train club of about 20 active members and about 15 more here and there attendance.

 

RT

[Anonymous]

 FRANKLY, Anyone that does not like this forum as good as a magazine is a magazine reader simply because you have to pay for a magazine, you get it once a month, and it does not have the amount that goes through this in one month. This forum you can (talk) and in a magazine you can only read what others say. Me and a friend that lives about 10 miles from here subscribe to Model Railroader together to read and to see when the next show in Kansas City is. I personnally think there are a lot more than we think out there. I have two freinds right in this area that are interested and one has a set and two of my first cousins have a set. Maybe we should be a little more open when we go to train shows to talk to other people and see what they are into and also talk to others more about it.

[jfugate]

I believe the influence of the internet today makes using magazine subscription stats alone to tell you the total population of the hobby to give an incomplete picuture at best.

The last 2006 statistic I saw regarding who is online now says that just over 200 million Americans use the internet regularly, which is about 2/3rds of our population, and just about 60 million of those have a broadband connection at home, while the rest connect to the internet at work (also broadband) or have a dial up connection at home.

And by age, internet users break down as follows:

18-29: 81%
30-49: 83%
50-64: 68%
65+   : 32%

This means we can estimate we have the following percentage of *modelers* online:

18-49: 82%
50-64: 68%
65+   : 32%

So lets further assume 30% of all modelers in the hobby are now age 50-64, and 50% are age 65 or older, leaving 20% of the remaining modelers to be age 18-49. I know MR has something on the order of 85,000 online subcribers, so working backwards gives us this many estimated modelers (online or not):

18-49: 32,000  (27,000 online)
50-64: 48,000  (32,000 online)
65+   : 80,000  (26,000 online)

Or something on the order of 160,000 modelers total, online or not -- and we know MR's subscribers are something on the order of 170,000, so our figures are pretty close.

Of course the big assumption in all this is how many are in the oldster's age group, but given the dramatically larger number of magazine subscribers to online subscribers, one notion that gives credence to our age estimates is this is because many of the magazine subscribers are in the 65+ age group, followed by the 50-64 age group.

[fwright]

 FRANKLY, Anyone that does not like this forum as good as a magazine is a magazine reader simply because you have to pay for a magazine, you get it once a month, and it does not have the amount that goes through this in one month. This forum you can (talk) and in a magazine you can only read what others say. Me and a friend that lives about 10 miles from here subscribe to Model Railroader together to read and to see when the next show in Kansas City is.

Well, as a "magazine reader", I disagree.  In the forums, you get a lot of unsupported opinions.  You have no way of knowing whether the pontificator actually knows what he's talking about unless he provides some references or facts to back it up.  The better magazines do vett their articles with experienced model railroaders.  And I believe (my unsupported opinion!) that if you contribute a "how to" article, the editor is going to look for evidence that you have actually tried or performed what you are suggesting.

But the real value of magazines is the quality diagrams, sketches, and plans that the rest of us do not have the time or skills to produce on our own.  How many times have you read a wiring question on the forums, and been at a loss to understand the often contradictory prose-only answers?  A post where a couple of good diagrams or sketches would have made the answers 10 times easier to understand, and where the diagrams would have shown the incorrect information for what it was right away.

For most of us, we insist on a diagram - preferably scale - of a track plan before we will comment on it.  Why is that?  Because it is too difficult to understand a written description of a track plan, no matter how thorough.

Prototype plans are another huge plus of magazines to me - although this may not matter to an MR who only buys RTR.  Although MR has pretty much stopped publishing plans, NG&SLG still does.  The plans and prototype info in NG&SLG are probably 75% of that magazine's value to me.  People with the skills and time to do the research and drawing generally expect something in return for their considerable skills and efforts.  The magazine business model makes that possible at reasonable cost to me.

You mention reading MR to find out when the next train show in Kansas City is.  That's interesting, since Model Railroader dropped the event schedule from their magazine content a while back.  Only the ads have any show listings, and that's just a small fraction of the shows.  Which brings up the last value of magazines - the ads.  I pay a lot more attention to ads in a magazine than I do to web site advertising.  I guess that's why I'm still just a "magazine reader."

Back to the topic, I would concur with the 300K figure which is based on magzine subscriptions, realizing it's probably only accurate to 30% or so.  I also agree with the 125K "serious" model railroaders, even though due to no layout, I would not be part of the 125K.

just my thoughts

Fred W 

[Anonymous]

Thanks for your input.

[VulcanCCIT]

Hey, im 47 and have no problems telling them about HO trains in my life.  Everyone has said how cool they think it is, and most want to see it.  One bonus of, as someone said 'Outing myself', is I got some Christmas gifts from people at work!  An exec got me a $50 gift certificate for Hobby Bench.  Another lady that works on leasing land to Railroads for putting up Billboards got me a Union Pacific Calendar and some old UP Schedule book.  Just little perks for just letting them know im "into trains".  I am finding some of the highest execs in our corporation (Clear Channel Communications) are into trains. 

I too, as someone said here, love to build things to make it look real.  I have more fun building scenery than running the trains.  I only have a dogbone and a few turnouts.  The turnouts are so short that they only hold a few cars at a time, so i rarely use them.  So I seem to run the train for 30 mins but spend 4 hours doing scenery.

As to how many....when I go to a Hobby Bench...I will see 2 guys at the R/C counter and 1 at the train counter.  everytime I am there.  When I walk up, that makes 2 at the train counter.  So perhaps we are gaining on the R/C guys?

[trainfan1221]

Just turned 40.  I have never had any shame of my hobby, in fact I love the responses I get from people concerning it.  I don't consider it playing with toys.  I consider it modeling, though I know some people do enjoy the "toy" aspect and that is fine because it makes our hobby that much more diverse.  I enjoy being a fan of both model and real.  Though they can both be very frustrating at times!

[dragonriversteel]

 

 Yeah know.... I've been a model railroader for more than 25 years off and on. I to have dealt with the folks who don't understand the hobby. Meaning this,sure I operate,build,wirer,baby and yes play with my trains. I think what folks don't understand is all that goes into this hobby.

 Sure you can buy a toy train set and set it up and say your a model railroader.The fact of the matter is ,it goes far beyond a train set. It's my way of dealing with stress,you see it helps me forget all about the real world. Then it becomes my own little world that I control all aspects of. In fact...one has to be a carpenter/electrician/model builder/painter and the list goes on.

 I'm not going to knock another hobby such as lets say model airplanes. I just don't see where crashing a 1200 dollar model airplane into the ground would be so cool. So to each their own...

 So when someone makes a comment on my "toy" trains,I just smile and say nothing. Like someone else said....there loss.

 Patrick

 Beaufort,SC

 Dragon River Steel Corp {DRSC}

[trainfan1221]

When I hear people I recently know say something about it, I figure this way..My trains were around long before they were, and will be long after.

[jacon12]

I can't remember where I read it recently, or attest to it's validity, but the answer was approximately 200,000 model railroaders.  Now just what was meant by 'model railroaders', I can't say, i.e. collectors that don't run trains all the way to owners of self built, elaborate layouts maybe?

Usually when I tell someone I'm into the hobby, it's as though they don't quite know what exactly to say.  The usual response is most always something nice, I don't remember ever getting a completely derogatory comment.  Now, whether they're thinking it... I don't know.  I've found that the average person doesn't know beans about the hobby, and yes... quite a few of them relate it to toy trains because that's all they know about.  I know the few people that have visited my train room, upon entering had some positive exclamation to make, such as 'oh wow!'.  I think they were expecting an oval of track on a 4x8 section of plywood and that's all. 

The modular club that I'm in erects the groups layout at 2 or 3 large venues each year,  fairs and the like.  These shows bring thousands of viewers and we take the opportunity to hand out fliers that, not only promote the hobby, but is an invitation to join the club.  Most of these last 7-10 days and we're constantly talking up model railroading.  We realize not everyone has the space nor the cash for a home layout, so the modular route is a way for the modeler to participate in The Worlds Greatest Hobby AND get to know the many model railroaders in our area.  And yes, some of us do don the striped engineers caps and the bib overalls at exhibits.  The kids love it and we love watching their eyes light up.  Here's a picture of one of our members holding a young vistor up for a better look.

What other people think of me 'playing with toy trains' is the least of my worries..  :)

JaRRell

[pcarrell]

Now we're starting to get down to the "meat and potatoes" of it!

We have a few different people saying that the number of MRRers might be somewhere in the range of say, 200,000.

Thats a number I can sink my teeth into!

So there's not as many of us as I thought, and thats why we're not making the impact I thought we should.

 

OK, that, I get!

Thanks guys!

[Tracklayer]

Every time I mention to John Q. Public that I have a model RR, I get the same response.  They don't say it out loud (usually), but you can hear it in what they say and see it in their eyes.  "Awwww, he plays with toy trains." 

Now I'm 41 years old.  This might have been OK when I was like 7 or something, but clearly the idea of a miniture, realistic, representation of the world around us is not what the average person thinks about when they think of our hobby.  I work hard on my RR to make it look like the real world.  Many of you do too.

So, the question is, are we that much of a minority that our aspect of the hobby goes that unnoticed, or are we just a large, but quiet bunch?  Does anyone have any idea of how many realistic type model RRer's there are out there, either by scale, or as a whole? (roughly)

I realize that the govt. probably has not paid someone 16 bazillion dollars to do a study on this, but I'm just wondering, are we just like 1% or what?

 

NOTE: This is not meant to offend anyone who enjoys the "toy" aspect of the hobby.  There's nothing wrong with that at all.  It's just that this is like comparing a custom car builder with a restoration perfectionist.  They both do awesome work, and both of them work on cars, but thats where the similarity ends.

Believe it or not, there are actually model railroaders out there that keep their hobby a secret from relatives, friends and co-workers because they're concerned about what people might think of them in the same way someone might hide a drug addiction. I personally could care less what anyone thinks of me about "anything" I do!... As for my trains being toys, that never even crosses my mind. To me it's a hobby, yet I take it very seriously. My layout is as close to realistic looking as I can possibly get it down to the last detail, and I won't allow anything toy-ish anywhere near it!... Tracklayer  

[grayfox1119]

PC, it is quite the opposite from what I find. Two of our friends, now retired, had lionel trains as kids and now that they have grandkids, and have seen what I am doing, have rekindled their love of this hobby. When I go to the big train shows here in MA, there are thousands of people, the parking lots are overflowed, the auditoriums and rooms are full of people, and all ages. Yes, there may be some that think this is for the kids, but that is because they have never been exposed to the full scope of this hobby. When they do, I get the same answer, " I never saw anything like this, I thought it was just a circle on the floor or table with one train running in circles".

[P & LE RR]

as a 24 year old young man i can see how one might be "embarassed" or not tell friends and coworkers about their hobby. sometimes its hard when it comes up with others that my fiance and i are building a model railroad... ill get everything from "oh thats cool. its really cute that you guys do that together" to "what??? aren't you a bit young for that? my grandpa does that"...

 all i know is we (me and the fiance) consider ourselves rather "cool"/popular people and we dont care what others think about our hobby.. we both got tired with spending time and money on things (clubs, bars, etc that our peers do) when we could invest our time, money, talents, minds and imaginations in something that is extremely rewarding

[jeffrey-wimberly]

At the LHS I go to the model railroad stuff is right up at the front of the store along with a couple of displays for RC planes. The rest of the RC stuff is in a back corner with the more expensive parts being in a locked display case. Most of the stuff in the display case has to do with model railroading. Also, the patronage seems to reflect more MR's than RC fans.

[pcarrell]

Tracklayer & P & LE RR,

I'm not embarassd by my hobby.  I love it and talk about it openly.  I've been a MRRer for going on 20 years now in a serious way, and this is the first time I've really concidered this question, so I'd think that it's safe to say that I really don't place my value on the hobby based on what others think of it. 

The question isn't "Am I embarassed by it" or "Do I care what others think".  Thats not the question I'm asking at all, because that isn't an issue.  Those questions kind of miss the point I was getting at.  (Though I'm glad that you talk about your hobby openly.)

The question is (or was, since I seem to have the answer I was looking for now),

"Why is it when you mention MRRing to the average person, do they almost always think of toy-like trains?  Why do they not think of something more representative of what most of us are doing, realistic type modeling?  And lastly, is it because there aren't that many of us, so we're virtually unknown, or is it because there are a bunch of us, but we don't say much that changes that opinion?"

[pcarrell]

At the LHS I go to the model railroad stuff is right up at the front of the store along with a couple of displays for RC planes. The rest of the RC stuff is in a back corner with the more expensive parts being in a locked display case. Most of the stuff in the display case has to do with model railroading. Also, the patronage seems to reflect more MR's than RC fans.

Here, RC is half the store, plasitic car, boat, and airplane models are 1/4 of the store, and the MRR dept. makes up the other 1/4.

[jondrd]

So, the question is, are we that much of a minority that our aspect of the hobby goes that unnoticed, or are we just a large, but quiet bunch?  Does anyone have any idea of how many realistic type model RRer's there are out there, either by scale, or as a whole? (roughly

 

     Have we ever had more models, more manufacturers, more technology than right now? Probably not.

     What's the old saying,"Put your money where your mouth is." Obviously there's more than enough of us for the manufacturers to invest in new product. The new product offerings seem to come to market faster than ever; it takes a lot of investment dollars to do that. As pointed out by other posters there's a lot of unidentified model RR'ers out there. We may be somewhat invisible to each other but the manufacturers obviously have a handle on market size otherwise they would find other opportunities for their money.

     I know this observation doesn't help you to quantify how big a group we are but it's a good barometer that the number must be growing rather than shrinking.

         Jon

 

 

[Metro Red Line]

I think one major result of this question and  when you admit you are a "train guy" is to not feel guilt or worry about a reaction from them, My thought is what do these people do for recreation or a hobby, you can bet that 99,8% of the people you meet have no outside interests, hobbies, crafts, etc,etc,

I don't know if it's that high but it is true. I hear people say, "Oh my hobbies are shopping, going to the movies, etc" LOL, THOSE ARENT HOBBIES! Gardeningis a hobby, making jewelry is a hobby. Collecting baseball cards is a hobby (collecting anything counts as a hobby). Collecting DVDs can be a hobby, but not merely "going to the movies." That's just entertainment which doesn't give you any skill set or knowledge. Most people are boring sheep that only follow what others are doing.

[Tracklayer]

Tracklayer & P & LE RR,

I'm not embarassd by my hobby.  I love it and talk about it openly.  I've been a MRRer for going on 20 years now in a serious way, and this is the first time I've really concidered this question, so I'd think that it's safe to say that I really don't place my value on the hobby based on what others think of it. 

The question isn't "Am I embarassed by it" or "Do I care what others think".  Thats not the question I'm asking at all, because that isn't an issue.  Those questions kind of miss the point I was getting at.  (Though I'm glad that you talk about your hobby openly.)

The question is (or was, since I seem to have the answer I was looking for now),

"Why is it when you mention MRRing to the average person, do they almost always think of toy-like trains?  Why do they not think of something more representative of what most of us are doing, realistic type modeling?  And lastly, is it because there aren't that many of us, so we're virtually unknown, or is it because there are a bunch of us, but we don't say much that changes that opinion?"

Okay pcarrell. We'll take another swing at it. I think the answer is because there's just simply so many different types of people in the world... Some are model railroaders, some are into extreme sports and so on, while others could care less about any type of hobby. I personally come from a very skilled and talented family, so for me not to be a model railroader would be an absolute sin!. However, my oldest sister (the black sheep of the family) thinks that model railroading is the most boring hobby in the world, and has even come out and said that she's so glad that her son (my nephew) never got into it because she would rather see him spend his time in a better way. I can't post what my reply was to her here on the forum, but you can imagine... Tracklayer 

[CNJ831]

      What's the old saying,"Put your money where your mouth is." Obviously there's more than enough of us for the manufacturers to invest in new product, assuring the manufacturer a quick and total return on his investiment. The new product offerings seem to come to market faster than ever; it takes a lot of investment dollars to do that. As pointed out by other posters there's a lot of unidentified model RR'ers out there. We may be somewhat invisible to each other but the manufacturers obviously have a handle on market size otherwise they would find other opportunities for their money.

     I know this observation doesn't help you to quantify how big a group we are but it's a good barometer that the number must be growing rather than shrinking.

         Jon

Jon, the potential error in your thinking is failing to appreciate that the entire marketing strategy for scale model trains changed drastically over the past decade or so. After decades of a smaller selection of continuously available, relatively inexpensive items, produced in very large quantities, there's been a striking transition to very small runs of unique, high tech items at decidedly higher prices and available for only very limited times. This quick turnover cycle is the reason so many different models become available over a short span of time. It provides the manufacturer an almost immediate return on his investment rather than recouping it longterm from larger sales. Really it doesn't reflect any growing demand at all.

In fact, such a strategy works best for a small or declining "collector's" market. I think that this has also been emphasized by several of the brass manufacturers moving into the high-end plastic market (partly in response to the shrinking of their own usual venue). Anyway, none of the above situations is indicative of a growing market, rather just the opposite. 

CNJ831

[orsonroy]

Taken as a whole (all magazines together), the numbers suggest that there are probably no more than 200,000 people reading model railroading magazines and the number could be decidedly smaller since most of us get two or more publications a month. From that number it is quite reasonable to assume that the total ranks of reasonably "realistic-type" hobbyists, which I take means folks who actually model in scale to at least some skill level and which was what the original poster asked about, could hardly be more than 150% of that figure. Legions of serious, yet phantom, hobbyists simply don't exist and I have to think even 300,000 hobbyists is probably pushing it (in its own surveys, MR never claimed there were more than 250,000 persons involved in model railroading, even at the hobby's probable zenith 10-15 years ago).

CNJ831 

Using magazine subscription rates, the numbers of NMRA members, or even the number of members of this forum are horrible ways to figure out the number of model railroaders in this hobby. Just because you don't read one of the mags, bleong to a club, or read this forum doesn't make you any less of a dedicated modeler. If I were to poll the 10 members of my Ntrak club, only two of us do any of the above.

There are a LOT of lone wolves out there. Tens of thousands, at least. Most of them are happy to just build their layouts and run their trains without any input from the hobby at large. MR and the NMRA do a huge didservice to these people by not trying to figure out their numbers. It takes a lot of hubris on the part of Kalmbach to say "Take our subscription number and double it to come up with a number of modelers." Really? HALF of the modelers in this country read MR? I don't think so. Go to any of the prototype modeler's meets (Naperville, Coco Beach, etc) and poll THOSE modelers, who can be considered serious prototype modelers, many of whom have VERY large home layouts. I think MR would be in for a nasty little shock. I'd say that less than 10% of those convention atendees read either of the mainstream mags, and belong to no clubs other than the occasional historical society.

I'm a people watcher. I've been in this hobby for decades, and go to a few swaps a year. Watch the crowds at a swap and keep your ears open: most modelers get ALL of their hobby information by attending swaps and by going to a LHS. That's it: no clubs, no mags, no associating with any other modelers apart from those that they're buying things from. I'm confident in saying that there are probably upwards of one MILLION "model railroaders" in this country alone, if you include anyone who runs a toy train around on a 4x8 at least once a month. Add up the numbers of modelers in Europe and Asia (Japan especially) and the worldwide numbers probably approach THREE million.