The hobby's doing fine, thanks for asking

[jfugate]

QUOTE: Originally posted by RedGrey62
... did you know that 50% of the people make up half the population?

Rick

And worse still, fully *half* of all Americans make below median wage. Now *that* needs to be corrected ... [swg]

[Anonymous]

QUOTE: Originally posted by Paul3

James (SOBSB),
Sorry, but you've got to be kidding. You obviously have internet access, and so you have the ability to shop anywhere online for bargains. Yet you expect us to feel sorry for you because you can't be bothered to shop around anywhere other than Wyoming?

That maybe true I can "Shop" around for bargains any ole online train store. But most of these online establishments do not take accept check or money order. Or at least I can not find a place that says they do. And since Internet Identity theft is rampant, Im not about to be flashing my credit card number across cyber space no matter how well its encrypted.

QUOTE:
BTW, it would be nice if you didn't compare apples to oranges when making these price comparisons. From Athearn.com, an SD40-2 kit costs $56.50 MSRP (yes, they are still available as kits). I don't know when SD40-2 kits were $45, but in 1993 they were $36.00 according to my old Walthers catalog. That means that an Athearn SD40-2 kit hasn't gone up 100% in 13 years, let alone 5 as you claim.

Ok fine. But if Kits are still avaialable. WHERE THE HECK ARE THEY? Even those online stores that I can shop with my credit card, seem not to have them. In my 2001 walthers catalog. The SD40-2s are listed at $44.95. SD40-2 kits might now be $56.50. But nobody has them it seems, so we are then stuck with the $89.95 RTR version.

QUOTE:
As far as your comments about "Athearn not being good enough"...where have you been? Are you honestly surprised that magazines and public opinion favors higher priced and higher quality products? Just because other people prefer Ferarris, BMW's, and Cadillacs doesn't mean that you can't buy and enjoy Chevys, Fords, and Dodges.

That maybe true I can enjoy my chevy's fords' and dodges. But when was the last time you saw a ford Taurus station wagon in Hot Rod Magazine?

Everyone from Phil Walthers, Terry Thompson, and Tony Keoster, To Johny train geek at the counter in Nowhere wyoming hobby shop says High teck high featured new stuff makes you a "true" model railroader, anything less, your just playing with toys. Oh and for christ sakes, Dont you dare build something by yourself. Thats just unmodelrailroadly. If you get caught scratchbuilding Tony Keoster is going to lead the Model Rairlaod police swat team on your workbench himself.

QUOTE:
As far as complaining about costs and real life... Remember that this is your hobby, not your life. First take care of real life, then whatever's left can be used on your hobby. If you can only afford $50 a month for model railroading and you really want that $200 loco, put that $50 in a jar for 4 months. We all do it. I can't afford to whip out $400 for a brass steamer at any given moment, but I can if I save for it (I now have 4 New Haven brass steamers).

You are right, This is supposed to be a hobby. But without going into all the painful details. My life has been positivly crappy. And my family and model trains have been the only positive force in my life. So I am sorry if my fantasy life is the only life I feel like living. The job I have only has to keep the trains running. And I wouldn't be so upset, except that the only apparent motivation for all these crazy prices is nothing other than plain ole greed.

QUOTE:
And for pity's sake, shop around for the best deals. You wouldn't go to a car lot and buy the first car you saw. You wouldn't go to Sears and buy the first washing machine. So why would you only buy what you can find at your Wyoming LHS?

Paul A. Cutler III

Because technology is faulty and my life seems to be run by Murphey's law. I do use E-bay alot. But that gives me the option of check or money order. And I do use money order for somethings because my hobby shop tells me I can't get them. But I use my LHS because I have a sense of loyalty. I have had problems with stuff from mail order and I have had to fix it. When ever I had a problem at the LHS, they took care of it.

I guess I just ask for to much.

[andrechapelon]

QUOTE: Originally posted by Student of Big Sky Blue

QUOTE: Originally posted by roadrat
James the problem you are facing can only be corrected by you.
if you are not earning enough money then you need to make some career and lifestyle choices, I know this can be difficult if not down right impossible because of many different factors.
but the global economy is not going to change just for guy's like us. we have to change or be left behind.

bill

While I have had steadily higher income for each of the last 5 years. My average annual income has raised roughly only 6% a year. Model railroad products in the last 5 years have gone up 100% to 200%. Athearn's SD40-2 that used to cost $45.00 was replaced by a version with new tooling. And in the great mode railraod wasteland of Wyoming is avaialable only in Ready to Run for $89.95 a practicle doubling in price. Average anual price increace of 20%

Gee, only 6% per year? That'll double your income in 12 years. That's about how rapidly my salary went up between 1990 and 2001 (when I was laid off). In any case, you're comparing a BB kit (still available) with a RTR model.

BTW, you ever tried shopping online?

QUOTE:
And then. The prevailing attitude that is presented in most magazines and here on this forum is that Athearn is no longer good eneugh. Its about as good for you as a TYCO, with that growling noise and not being DCC equiped with sound and all that jazz. What you need is the latest and greatest piece of Technicle wizardry from Atlas, Proto2000, Stewart, Broadway Limited/Precicion Craft Models, oh and lets not forget Overland. and from these people you can buy every locomotive and then some that Athearn use to make in the affordable $45.00 or less range, starting at $225.00 and up. And Oh by the way if you do not do so you are not a "real" model railroader.

There's people out there who worry about putting food on the table and you're looking for sympathy about hobby prices? I'm sorry, but some things are important and others aren't. The prices of hobby items aren't.

QUOTE:
So if you consider the increace in expenditure just for all the hot fancy new technology. Thats at least a 5 times increace in price. increace in price or an average annual price increace of 100%

So If I need to make different career and life style choices, I would surely like to know what ones. Because not only would I like to be able to buy the locomotives I want again. I would love to have all my bills paid as well.

James.

You have a job? Pay your bills, set aside some savings and if you have something left over, then you can buy model railroad equipment. If you can't afford what you want the first month, save for as long as it takes to get the item you want.

Andre

[Paul3]

James (SOBSB),
Sorry, but you've got to be kidding. You obviously have internet access, and so you have the ability to shop anywhere online for bargains. Yet you expect us to feel sorry for you because you can't be bothered to shop around anywhere other than Wyoming?

BTW, it would be nice if you didn't compare apples to oranges when making these price comparisons. From Athearn.com, an SD40-2 kit costs $56.50 MSRP (yes, they are still available as kits). I don't know when SD40-2 kits were $45, but in 1993 they were $36.00 according to my old Walthers catalog. That means that an Athearn SD40-2 kit hasn't gone up 100% in 13 years, let alone 5 as you claim.

As far as your comments about "Athearn not being good enough"...where have you been? Are you honestly surprised that magazines and public opinion favors higher priced and higher quality products? Just because other people prefer Ferarris, BMW's, and Cadillacs doesn't mean that you can't buy and enjoy Chevys, Fords, and Dodges.

As far as complaining about costs and real life... Remember that this is your hobby, not your life. First take care of real life, then whatever's left can be used on your hobby. If you can only afford $50 a month for model railroading and you really want that $200 loco, put that $50 in a jar for 4 months. We all do it. I can't afford to whip out $400 for a brass steamer at any given moment, but I can if I save for it (I now have 4 New Haven brass steamers).

And for pity's sake, shop around for the best deals. You wouldn't go to a car lot and buy the first car you saw. You wouldn't go to Sears and buy the first washing machine. So why would you only buy what you can find at your Wyoming LHS?

Paul A. Cutler III
*****************
Weather Or No Go New Haven
*****************

[Anonymous]

James, here are Athearn RTR freight cars for $11-$15 http://www.firsthobby.com/store1/Category.asp?CategoryID=2002101808342643&SN=2006020118212946

[Anonymous]

QUOTE: Originally posted by roadrat
James the problem you are facing can only be corrected by you.
if you are not earning enough money then you need to make some career and lifestyle choices, I know this can be difficult if not down right impossible because of many different factors.
but the global economy is not going to change just for guy's like us. we have to change or be left behind.

bill

While I have had steadily higher income for each of the last 5 years. My average annual income has raised roughly only 6% a year. Model railroad products in the last 5 years have gone up 100% to 200%. Athearn's SD40-2 that used to cost $45.00 was replaced by a version with new tooling. And in the great mode railraod wasteland of Wyoming is avaialable only in Ready to Run for $89.95 a practicle doubling in price. Average anual price increace of 20%

And then. The prevailing attitude that is presented in most magazines and here on this forum is that Athearn is no longer good eneugh. Its about as good for you as a TYCO, with that growling noise and not being DCC equiped with sound and all that jazz. What you need is the latest and greatest piece of Technicle wizardry from Atlas, Proto2000, Stewart, Broadway Limited/Precicion Craft Models, oh and lets not forget Overland. and from these people you can buy every locomotive and then some that Athearn use to make in the affordable $45.00 or less range, starting at $225.00 and up. And Oh by the way if you do not do so you are not a "real" model railroader.

So if you consider the increace in expenditure just for all the hot fancy new technology. Thats at least a 5 times increace in price. increace in price or an average annual price increace of 100%

So If I need to make different career and life style choices, I would surely like to know what ones. Because not only would I like to be able to buy the locomotives I want again. I would love to have all my bills paid as well.

James.

[sfrailfan]

wow, I just replied to a similar post, I wasn't going to reply to this but… Alco Fan did some research and for that you should be congradulated. Nice work.

As for these guys who constantly predict the end of the hobby; are you sure you really like trains? Did you mom threaten to take them away when you were kids?

Come On!

[cmrproducts]

I have been a member of a model rr club going on 20 plus years now. We have several open house events throughout the year and the general public is encouraged to attend.

I am starting to see third generation kids visiting the displays. So there must be some interest in the trains or the kid’s kids would not be bringing in their kids. And yes we have a number of young members and their parents are not one bit interested in trains!

But then again when I am over 100 years old and the hobby is gone I WILL have all of the trains finally because there won’t be anyone around that plays with trains anymore.

I win! - (He who has the most trains wins)

BOB H – Clarion, PA

[Anonymous]

Thank you, someone finally sees it the way that I see it!

[RedGrey62]

I love reading all these posts on this subject. I actually learn a lot from the back and forth. Now for my [2c]. I am a weather forecaster by profession and a model railroader by choice. And as a good weatherman, I can manipulate statistics in my favor (did you know that 50% of the people make up half the population?). What we have in this argument is the third part of the famous phrase "Lies, Dang (editted) Lies, and STATISTICS". [:D]

Its great how two people can look at the same data and draw completely different conclusions. I might add, our own prejudices often skew how we view statistics, especially others'.

I will not add to the debate. I will only offer that the hobby is alive and well in my home and I have a wonderful wife who helps fuel my addiction...er....interest, as long as she gets equal time/money for her hobbies[;)]

Rick

[wctransfer]

QUOTE: Originally posted by Student of Big Sky Blue

QUOTE: Originally posted by dingoix

I think that is a problem for most of us. Athearn RTR freight cars are nice for $11-$15

Where are you finding them for that much? Around here its $15.00-$20.00

Jamses

I get them for that much too. Where are you shopping? Im in Minnesota and we have a pretty "family" like hobby shop. Got the SOO SD60's (retail 99 bucks) for 82. So we get pretty good deals there.

Alec

[IRONROOSTER]

QUOTE: Originally posted by jfugate

Paul:

I think you can unjumble the table if you put it in code tags, like this...

Thanks Joe. Always good to learn something new.
Enjoy
Paul

[roadrat]

QUOTE: No body has even addressed the problem I am having.

Prices getting higher, and income not keeping up.

James

James the problem you are facing can only be corrected by you.
if you are not earning enough money then you need to make some career and lifestyle choices, I know this can be difficult if not down right impossible because of many different factors.
but the global economy is not going to change just for guy's like us. we have to change or be left behind.

bill

[Anonymous]

QUOTE: Originally posted by dingoix

I think that is a problem for most of us. Athearn RTR freight cars are nice for $11-$15

Where are you finding them for that much? Around here its $15.00-$20.00

Jamses

[Anonymous]

I think that is a problem for most of us. Athearn RTR freight cars are nice for $11-$15

[Anonymous]

No body has even addressed the problem I am having.

Prices getting higher, and income not keeping up.

James

[wctransfer]

I dont think the hobby is dieing at all. But i do think the only real problem with kids not getting interested is because they cant go out and buy 2 engines and 10 cars anymore. Thats a lot of money for such a small thing. Im in 8th grade and model the WC,SOO, and the CNW. I dont have a layout, but plenty of cars (atleast 10 RTR cars) and then bluebox kits. Got about 25-30 units. When i tell people that Athearn RTR SD60 costs 80 bucks they ask why i would want to pay for that. If kids could get a few units once in a while, i think there would be a lot more younger railfans and modelers. But I think they dont see the interest in trains like they once did, as so "hometown" lines have been torn out since the 70's and 80's. Back "in the day" there were trains everywhere, crews would invite you up just for the hell of it. Now, trains arent as dense everywhere, and there are so many rules that wont let any kid my age or younger get interested.

Alec

[selector]

Thanks to both of you. We must not forget, too, that most pensions are not indexed, so they erode over time. That, in turn, may erode the voluntariness of the reduced spending. Just another way of looking at things.

-Crandell

[jfugate]

Paul:

I think you can unjumble the table if you put it in code tags, like this:[code]
Average annual spending declines with age
Spending category 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ Overall
Apparel & services $2,029 $1,791 $1,252 $674 -67%
Entertainment $2,565 $2,297 $1,371 $896 -65%
Food & alcohol $6,693 $5,979 $4,803 $3,446 -49%
Health care $2,550 $3,007 $3,588 $3,584 +41%
Housing $15,476 $13,831 $10,052 $8,252 -47%
Transportation $9,173 $8,449 $5,731 $3,178 -65%
Miscellaneous $4,939 $4,138 $3,593 $3,028 -39%
Pers. ins & pension $5,323 $4,838 $1,853 $696 -87%
Total $48,748 $44,330 $32,243 $23,754 -51%
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics,
Consumer Expenditure Survey 2002[/code]

[IRONROOSTER]

QUOTE: Originally posted by selector

QUOTE: Originally posted by IRONROOSTER

If you go to the Census Bureau's web site http://www.census.gov/ you'll find that the average age of the population has been rising. One of the most interesting things is that the number of 65+ year olds rose from 3.1 million to 35 million over the last century. So the fact that the average age of a model railroader is rising is the expected result. It would be odd if it didn't.

Then there is far greater amount of products available. My Walther's catalogs from the from the 70's are much smaller that the current ones. S scale is growing like crazy.

Train shows are so crowded that you have to wait in line to get in. The Timonium Great Scale Model Train Show has a line that doesn't shrink for over an hour after they open the doors.

The only sensible conlusion is that the hobby is booming.

Enjoy
Paul

It would be interesting to do an analysis of how the extended lives of people will contribute to altered economics. Pensions and annuities are not meant to last for 40 years. I would expect that the average recipient lives 15-20 years into their retirement, depending on the usual variables of health and age of retirement.

An aging population that lives longer than its pensions are meant to pay will have a deleterious effect over all types of living, let alone hobbies. Also, remember that no matter how long we live, the twilight years bring increased medical and other care costs. Along with a prolonged life will be a prolonged "tail" that will be more costly in many respects. So, my point is, I wonder if someone more savvy than I in these things could comment about how that might affect leisure spending.

Here's a table showing spending declining as we get older

Average annual spending declines with age
Spending category 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ Overall change
Apparel & services $2,029 $1,791 $1,252 $674 -67%
Entertainment $2,565 $2,297 $1,371 $896 -65%
Food & alcohol $6,693 $5,979 $4,803 $3,446 -49%
Health care $2,550 $3,007 $3,588 $3,584 41%
Housing $15,476 $13,831 $10,052 $8,252 -47%
Transportation $9,173 $8,449 $5,731 $3,178 -65%
Miscellaneous $4,939 $4,138 $3,593 $3,028 -39%
Personal insurance & pensions $5,323 $4,838 $1,853 $696 -87%
Total $48,748 $44,330 $32,243 $23,754 -51%
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Expenditure Survey 2002

except for health care (sorry the table is jumbled)

Here's an interesting article that used this table.
http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/Retirementandwills/Createaplan/P121553.asp

The article says the decline is voluntary. Part of this I am sure reflects declining health, but I suspect part of it too may be that eventually, you have enough stuff that you start getting a little choosier. I know this is happening with me.

Enjoy
Paul

[selector]

QUOTE: Originally posted by IRONROOSTER

If you go to the Census Bureau's web site http://www.census.gov/ you'll find that the average age of the population has been rising. One of the most interesting things is that the number of 65+ year olds rose from 3.1 million to 35 million over the last century. So the fact that the average age of a model railroader is rising is the expected result. It would be odd if it didn't.

Then there is far greater amount of products available. My Walther's catalogs from the from the 70's are much smaller that the current ones. S scale is growing like crazy.

Train shows are so crowded that you have to wait in line to get in. The Timonium Great Scale Model Train Show has a line that doesn't shrink for over an hour after they open the doors.

The only sensible conlusion is that the hobby is booming.

Enjoy
Paul

It would be interesting to do an analysis of how the extended lives of people will contribute to altered economics. Pensions and annuities are not meant to last for 40 years. I would expect that the average recipient lives 15-20 years into their retirement, depending on the usual variables of health and age of retirement.

An aging population that lives longer than its pensions are meant to pay will have a deleterious effect over all types of living, let alone hobbies. Also, remember that no matter how long we live, the twilight years bring increased medical and other care costs. Along with a prolonged life will be a prolonged "tail" that will be more costly in many respects. So, my point is, I wonder if someone more savvy than I in these things could comment about how that might affect leisure spending.

[jfugate]

Great points, guys.

What I keep coming back to is if the hobby market goes down the tubes, then the diehards that want to model even if they have to build things themselves will all communicate over the internet and swap scratchbuilding parts and tips with each other.

It won't die, it would become primarily a craftman's hobby again if that happens.

Then all those who are decrying the trend away from a craftsman hobby will get their wish!

Or spin it another way and it looks to me that the RTR trend in the hobby is making more finished layouts possible, which then fuels still more purchases, etc. So RTR appears to have a stabilizing effect on the hobby market, if not fueling growth.

In short, the RTR trend is probably the hobby's "salvation" (if it needs saving, that is) -- at least for a time -- but insisting on more time-consuming craftsman pursuits probably only reduces the hobby ranks these days. Building things by hand is always an option, but not as necessary as in the past.

[AntonioFP45]

Great point, MABruce.

I agree the hobby is changing, but if I sat and worried about it my hair will turn gray prematurely.

My attitude is that in the meantime, with all of life's worries about taxes, politics, family, job, and terrorism...........I prefer to focus on the fun stuff in HO that we didn't have in the 70s like:

1. DCC,
2. Working mars and gyra lights,
3. Incredible realistic sound,
3. Beautifully detailed locomotives that come in the box, (P2K, Atlas)
4 Nicely detailed freight and passenger cars,
5. Cornerstone and DPM kits that allow you to very quickly build realistic looking towns overnight,
6. Code 83, 70, and 55 track
7. Realistic looking turnouts
8. Easy to install and wire realistic signaling systems with DCC

While good points have been made, IMHO, there's just too many aspects of this hobby for us to worry about it dying out. Chances are that most of us here have or will have kids. Make sure you "expose" them to model railroading and other "mind building" hobbies as well.

In the mean time guys..............I'm going to HAVE FUN with trains!

Peace!

[MAbruce]

QUOTE: Originally posted by bryanbell

QUOTE: Originally posted by jfugate

Same thing here. We don't have all the facts, never had, and never will. Even the most scientific of the statistics presented here could be missing some vital information that would drastically alter our conclusions. Be careful labeling your conclusions "the truth" and calling everyone else "blind".

Facts can suggest trends, and lots of facts all leaning a certain direction suggest a strong trend, but there 's always the possibility that some fact none of us knows about or have considered would completely change our conclusions. I would not lose any sleep over it, but it does call for a dose of humility, unless you happen to be all-knowing. [swg]

As usual Joe brings some common sense to the bickering.
Neither "side" in this debate has all the information and the information available can be interpreted to support either arguement. Its called spin, make the information work for you.
Not having enough of the right info means everyone is just giving their opinion and everyone knows what they say about opinions.
I like a good debate as much as the next guy but this topic seems to be a recurring theme. As much will be solved here as the last 100 times someone brought up the "sky is falling" topic, zero. A couple people will get their feelings hurt and then the topic will die down for a couple weeks or a month.
I will admit it is entertaining reading sometimes.

Bryan

Count me in with the “we don’t have all the facts” camp. While I think some interesting and thoughtful debate has been made on this subject, I’ve come to see that it really comes down to drawing conclusions based on peripheral data that can be spun either way.

I think the essential data we would need to make a call is an analysis of each MRR manufactures sales history, financial balance sheets, and any marketing surveying they have recently done. Unfortunately as Joe already mentioned, we will never get our hands on this information mainly because these companies are privately owned (not required to publicly disclose financial information) and/or foreign owned (who do not report in the same manner as US companies if they even were required to disclose them).

Besides, as with most things in life, we have little control over what will eventually occur. If MRR’ing does die, I suppose I’ll just have to find something else to do. After all, it’s just a hobby – right?

[IRONROOSTER]

If you go to the Census Bureau's web site http://www.census.gov/ you'll find that the average age of the population has been rising. One of the most interesting things is that the number of 65+ year olds rose from 3.1 million to 35 million over the last century. So the fact that the average age of a model railroader is rising is the expected result. It would be odd if it didn't.

Then there is far greater amount of products available. My Walther's catalogs from the from the 70's are much smaller that the current ones. S scale is growing like crazy.

Train shows are so crowded that you have to wait in line to get in. The Timonium Great Scale Model Train Show has a line that doesn't shrink for over an hour after they open the doors.

The only sensible conlusion is that the hobby is booming.

Enjoy
Paul

[bryanbell]

QUOTE: Originally posted by jfugate

Same thing here. We don't have all the facts, never had, and never will. Even the most scientific of the statistics presented here could be missing some vital information that would drastically alter our conclusions. Be careful labeling your conclusions "the truth" and calling everyone else "blind".

Facts can suggest trends, and lots of facts all leaning a certain direction suggest a strong trend, but there 's always the possibility that some fact none of us knows about or have considered would completely change our conclusions. I would not lose any sleep over it, but it does call for a dose of humility, unless you happen to be all-knowing. [swg]

As usual Joe brings some common sense to the bickering.
Neither "side" in this debate has all the information and the information available can be interpreted to support either arguement. Its called spin, make the information work for you.
Not having enough of the right info means everyone is just giving their opinion and everyone knows what they say about opinions.
I like a good debate as much as the next guy but this topic seems to be a recurring theme. As much will be solved here as the last 100 times someone brought up the "sky is falling" topic, zero. A couple people will get their feelings hurt and then the topic will die down for a couple weeks or a month.
I will admit it is entertaining reading sometimes.

Bryan

[edkowal]

Gee, after the impending death of the hobby, I guess I'll just be able to keep on doing what I've been doing, building stuff and watching it run.

-Ed

[tomikawaTT]

So the model railroad population is aging. So what?

Has anyone noticed that people are living longer? And that people with an active interest in a hobby or pastime are apt to live longer than people who succumb to couch-potatohood?

I'm fully retired, still a quarter century younger than my parents were when they passed on and have every reasonable expectation that I will outlive them. Looking only in the mirror, I can forsee being an active (money-spending) model railroader and railfan in 2030 and beyond.

As for how many others will be model railroaders then, and whether they will be modeling steam, diesel, heavy electric, maglev or whatever, deponent careth not.

Chuck

[Anonymous]

Well here is my two cents worth.

All of a sudden in this last year. I have realised that I suddenly can no longer afford the hobby.

Locomotives that use to be $45.00 are now 90.00 And a steam locomotive isn't available for less than $150.00 it seems. $10.00 Freight cars with the exception of Accurails Fine line are no longer existant. and have been replaced by the same cars now built by chineese for a fish head a day. and are being charged twice to three times the price for them.

I was just managing to get by as it was and now. Im cast down to rebuilding, Botchmanns, Corps-Likes, and WHYCOs. And then when I can find them cheap eneugh.

James

[Anonymous]

OK, CNJ, your position is clear.

I've posted a number of statistics based on actual research (number of items carried by Walthers, actual pricing comaprisons, etc.). Ignore or deny the factual data as you wish.

I'll stay out of your way from now on and you can proclaim the death of the hobby to your heart's content. Meanwhile, the rest of us will enjoy the wider than ever variety of products at real prices lower than the 70s.

Jon.