Is the hobby doomed?

[Ibflattop]

Oh Nooooooo not Gloomy Gus again. Is it time to give him another Kiwi Shine to the Hind, and kick him well ya know if ya been in the Military. I have been in this hobby for close to 40 years. And he shows up every once in a while. Ya just have to put up with him. Kevin

[MidlandPacific]

QUOTE: To paraphrase Winston Churchill, never in the course of human events have so many expressed so much totally uninformed opinion on a subject that actually has so many secondary indicators alluding to the actually [SIC] situation...if they only bothered to do just a little research!

Please. If you want to do research, go do it - the results will be more welcome than a yawn-inducing cribbed Churchill quote. You're the one who's interested, after all. You don't get any props for complaining about other readers' failure to research when you aren't producing anything yourself.

[Anonymous]

Logically, this forum is NOT where an objective answer to this question is gonna come from. Everyone here is in the hobby!

[CNJ831]

To paraphrase Winston Churchill, never in the course of human events have so many expressed so much totally uninformed opinion on a subject that actually has so many secondary indicators alluding to the actually situation...if they only bothered to do just a little research!

CNJ831

[bryanbell]

I guess its time for the bi-monthly "the sky is falling" thread...
The problem with getting "hard" numbers is that most companies are small and/or privately-held companies. For obvious reasons, these companies don't release sales and production numbers.
The fact that more and more hobby shops seem to be closing is not out of step with the rest of the economy. Everything is consoldating, there use to be a grocery store and a meat shop on every corner but through consolidation, there are fewer but larger grocery stores with meat departments in the store.
Its a global economy now more than ever consolidation is the key to survival.
Are there as many people entering the hobby as 50 yrs ago, maybe not but that doesn't necessarily mean the hobby is doomed.
There's my two cents on the topic until next month when it comes up again.

Bryan

[selector]

Chuck, c'mon....that is an outlier, by any statistical measure. The tendency is for the public to lose interest in anachronisms over time. There are still people who shoot arrows using a bow, but how many of them use a longbow or whatever the North American natives used? No, they have what could only have been considered a bizarre construction to someone living in the 15th Century.

Steam still has legs in it, but they are aging legs, and will eventually die. Just my opinion.

[tomikawaTT]

selector,
Maybe there aren't that many stage coach modelers, but there are plenty of people who build models of full-rigged sailing ships, both in and out of bottles. The upshot of that is the brand new five-masted cruise ship commissioned a few years ago.

Don't be surprised if some tourist railroad somewhere gets together with a local machine shop and rolls out a brand new steam loco for the vacation crowd. Steam may be dead on Class ! mainlines, but it isn't even sick at Strasburg.

Even after the last steel rail is pulled up and recycled into parts for a contra-gravity groundskimmer somebody will still model railroads - as they were, as they are now and as they will become in the future.

Chuck

[edkowal]

When I first started out in this hobby, almost everyone else was older than I was. Now that I'm 55. almost everyone that I see in this hobby is younger than I am.

My point is that in the many years that I've been active in model railroading, a very large number of new model railroaders have come into this hobby, or else I wouldn't be able to make the last of the statements in that first paragraph.

And for about the fourth time, I'll note that this question has been worried over since at least the 1950's.

-Ed

[selector]

If trains ever go the way of the dinosuar, then the hobby's days are numbered...maybe two generations after the last train. How many people model stage coaches? Is there a thriving industry for models in various scales for stage coaches? Doubt it.

So, the first to go will be steamers as they are increasingly relegated to curiousity status in the odd museum. In that case, two or three generations from now, steam will be history completely, even as a modeling medium with the substantial following that it has now. Then, when rail traffic ceases all together (IF it ceases all together), their models will also fade away, and our great grandchildren will turn to modeling ipods or space vehicles, or space suits, or something.

We'll always have "toys", but they will evolve as their fullsized counterparts do, even to their demises.

[CMSTPP]

(clearing throat)..................no...........................

James

[beegle55]

I'm only 14 and I've been into model railroading from the day I turned 6!!! (Well a little after that) but you get the point. I think it is a great hobby and most of my friends think so too! I have thought about it going by the wayside though because of gas prices, but I am in progress of doing a type of energy report in my manufacturing class and I've found out that railroading is much more effiecient than other means of transportation, so I think its OK for a while until bigger and better things come along!

[IRONROOSTER]

At the moment it seems to be thriving very well. I certainly see a lot more available than 10 years ago in S scale. MR's circulation figures are down, but it's hard to say whether it is because of fewer modelers, more magazines diluting the pool, higher cost, etc. There is anecdotal evidence that the number of hobby shops is declining, but again trains shows and online buying appear to have really picked up.

But I don't think it's a major problem for the hobbyist. Model Railroading will continue past even our youngest forum members' lifetimes. Even with fewer hobbyists there will still be plenty of stuff. The business end is probably going to continue to change, but that's true of retailing in general.

My bottom line: don't worry about it.
Enjoy
Paul

[nucat78]

QUOTE: Originally posted by CNJ831

Instead of an endless, totally meaningless, series of, "Well, I think..." or "In my opinion..." posts, how about someone offering some concrete evidence (facts, figures, surveys, industry publications) demonstrating the current state of the hobby and its future?

CNJ831

Good idea. Go to the Securities and Exchange Commission site and you can read all the financial filings for publicly held US model making companies. You can Google "investor relations" and company name to read the annual reports on each company's Web site, if you prefer.

[MidlandPacific]

Ever been to a Buy Buy Baby? The Thomas the Tank Engine displays put everything else to shame. The Wooden Railroad even offers two different kinds of roundhouse - which puts it a couple of notches ahead of the sophistication Brio offered us Gen-Xers back in 1975. Ever find yourself at a railroad museum on the day Thomas shows up? Man, you've never seen so many excited kids in your life - if ten percent of them become railfans or modelers, Kalmbach stock will be a better investment than Dell. Somehow, the great commercial machine of capitalism discovered that children like trains, and started exploiting it. It took 'em awhile (my parents gave me a Thomas book back in 1978), but they picked up on it. If the people who do market research think kids like trains, and are willing to bet their careers on it, my guess is the hobby has a stable base. My six month old son can't get enough of the layout: the sight of a rolling train inspires all kinds of smiles, arm-waving, and cheerful gurgling.

[Anonymous]

not on your life, progress in rtr type items assures the future

[Bill54]

Newbie here, I certainly hope the model railroading hobby isn't doomed. I'm 51 and just getting into it. If anything, it's probably picking up momentum due to innovations such as DCC.

Also the baby boomers are at that age where they're retiring and have the time and money to spend in a hobby like this.

I believe Model Railroading will be around for quite some time!

Bill

[Anonymous]

I don't think it's doomed at all - within a 50 mile radius of here there are 5 LHS, one of which specialises in large scale while the others stock multiple scales. If it's doomed, how are all these able to stay in business? They seem to be thriving, one has commissioned special edition locos and cars from Hornby and Dapol while another has become the UK agent for Regner live steamers (large scale).

I'm probably unusual in that I play computer games/PS2 and build model trains. The two aren't necessarily exclusive!

[WilmJunc]

I think the innovations in DCC and sound are giving this hobby a big boost. Realistic operation is now much easier with DCC. Wiring a layout doesn't take a degree in electrical engineering anymore, and sound now makes a layout come to life.

[on30francisco]

I have been into model railroading since I was a kid in the mid 60s. On the surface it seems to me that MRRing was more popular back then since every kid I knew either had a trainset or wanted one, however, I think the hobby has gone through many changes since then - many good ones and a few not so good. I noticed there are many more high-quality products available today - from locos, rolling stock, detail parts, etc., in scales from Z to G, than there was even ten to twenty years ago. The internet has been a big boom to us MRs since we now have access to products and information on almost every piece of equipment - from obscure detail parts and scales to the most popular HO loco - and we can now purchase these supplies usually at a discount - from small, local cottage industry suppliers that aren't listed in the Walthers catalog as well as mainstream suppliers . If you are modeling in a minority scale or gauge or other special interest, the internet is a godsend! I remember having to rely on the LHSs and ads in MR back then. If you weren't into a mainstream scale or prototype, you were (and still are) at an extreme disadvantage of having to rely on most LHSs for your supplies and information. I believe the hobby is growing although it is much more diversified than it was back then. Today, there are magazines, newsletters, or internet sites that cater to just about every scale, gauge, prototype, or obscure interest immaginable. These sources are a treasure trove of information, not only on the prototype, but also on modeling and current product information and availability.

[Anonymous]

Thanks Strasheim you said what I wanted to say. I too am 26 although I've been in modelling since I was 10. Part of what got me into it was Seeing trains running behind my uncle's house as a kid and visiting a layout on display at the Carnegie Science Center in Pittsburgh. I also was interesting because in Boy Scouts I read artiocles about train layouts in BOYS LIFE Magazine. The hobby will be doomed if all we do is sit around like a bunch of Chicken Littles crying "the sky is falling the sky is falling".

If you're in a boy scout troop suggest maybe during meeting they build a train layout instead of jaw-jackin' for a whole evening. If you're ina club hold an open house.

If you have kids take `em to one of these open houses or show them your own layout. Or build a layout as a family project. Tell `em they ain't gonna spend all saturday morning or summer vacation playing video games and watching cartoons. Expose them to some interests. Sometimes being a parent means you have to give Junior a gentle nudge or good swift boot in the***in the right direction.

[Anonymous]

I'm 26 and have been in the hobby since I was 13.

In my opionion video games, TV, and computers have spoiled our youth.
I grew up just as video games were becoming popular. Alot of my buddies had these machines, but I never got one. At the time I felt left out, but now looking back I'm glad; I went outside and built treehouses, played with trains, etc. rather than sitting bug-eyed in front of the TV for hours on end. Most people in our generaton want instant gratification and won't participate in hobbies or activities that require time and patience.
"WE" also don't want to have to save money for something. When is that last time anyone has heard "I'm saving up for........."? If we don't have the money now, we'll either go into debt to get it or loose interest all together.
I am at a point now where I am on the verge of starting a family, and you can bet that non of my children will be playing video games or watching TV, they will be out in the yard playing or other wholesome activites.
I agree with most on this thread that the hobby isn't dying...but it's going to take getting our kids away from video games and computer screens and getting them into the train room.

[Anonymous]

I have a few friends who would be in the hobby now if at least one of their kids had been a boy. :) They cant convince the wife otherwise. They show interest in the progress of my layout and want to know what I'm working on.

[Anonymous]

QUOTE: Originally posted by CNJ831

Instead of an endless, totally meaningless, series of, "Well, I think..." or "In my opinion..." posts, how about someone offering some concrete evidence (facts, figures, surveys, industry publications) demonstrating the current state of the hobby and its future?

CNJ831

I agree that hard stats would be the best but this is part of the problem.

Back to the "transition" theory: Many LHS still use paper and pen to record their transactions. Point of Sales systems would really help these folks. Bachmann, Athearn, BLI and others still require one to (get this!!) mail a warrantee cards to them!! Most all manufacturers do this on-line. About half of the vendors at trains shows don't have websites. Hello, this is the 21st century! Please join us!

This hobby doesn't have hard facts because it doesn't have the means to produce them. There is no way stats are going to be properly generated without computer aid. It is starting to happen but I would not expect anyone doing business to stop doing the things that produce revenue in order to produce stats.

So until the "transition" is complete, this debate shall sadly rage on.

[Medina1128]

I can't tell by the number of people in the LHS that I shop at. By the way, Erie has me beat. I'm ONLY a 51 year old teenager.

[Anonymous]

I live in rural West Tennessee about 50 miles north of Memphis (home of the Kiing of Rock'n Roll Elvis). I only know of 2 or 3 people who are active MRRer's with in driving distance. Even Memphis has only 1 or 2 trainshows a year. I've been a MRRer for 35 years and have often wondered if the hobby was headed to the crapper. It just seems to keep on keeping on. My biggest issue is the recent buyouts of Athearn and Roundhouse by Horizon and Lifelike being bought by Walthers. Lifelike engines that were $40-00 are now being offered for $80.00+. Walthers has always been High on their prices. Deals are still around, you just have to look harder. Many people have seen my layout and expressed an interest, byt never followed up on it. Like was stated earlier, as long as I have my VISA the hobby will survive.

[Anonymous]

I don't think 8 year olds should worry about a $120 locomotive. They are 8 year olds (or whatever their age is), they don't really care about all the details, they just want to play and run the trains. Once the kid gets older he learn more about the better trains. I wouldn't buy a $100+model for a child since the details are too fragile for them.

As for the price.... come on, they are made in China!! Why do you see a P2k (same goes for Bachmann) that MSRP at $100+ and stores that can sell them for $30.00?? They, and LL are still making a nice profit, not as much they wanted to though. Not sure why Atlas still demand higher prices, probably the better quality, demand, and such.

As for me I am 20 and currently I just collect the models. Started when I was a kid, stopped for awhile, came back around 8th grade, stopped before high school, and now I am back into it again. I wanted a nicely detailed model, and since I have a part-time job, I can afford one, so I got a P2k UP SD50. Now I have 3 more, Athearn RTR UP C44-9w, Spectrum ATSF SD-45, and an Atlas ATSF U23b.

In the future when I graduate college and get an actual job, I can go into railroading more seriously.

How I see it, if model railroading is to grow, get more kids into them. They will grow out of it, but they won't forget the fun of trains and their childhood memories, and later in adulthood they would probably get back into the hobby. (I have seen several" I haven't been railroading in XX years, please fill me in." type of threads in this forum.)

[nambo]

Why our hobby maybe on a decline esp in Europe (from what I 've heared) and other parts of the world-

"Unfortinately the advent of game consoles, computer games hip hop/rap CRAP music (how can it even be called music??) and the lack of DISIPLAN in modern society and dodgy behaviour among teenagers eg-dating and having babies at the age to 14 yrs,drug taking,etc. Has caused most kids to not have a hobby to CENTER thier lives on, thus is one of the reasons why they do bad things and then they become some-what "lost" in their lives".

This I my opinon and I'am sure a lot of you guys are with me on this!!

[nambo]

I'am a 16 year old boy living down under in New Zealand and I have always loved trains and model railroads scine as far back as I can remember!

I'am currently building an HO Red Caboose flat car kit and I enjoy super accurately detailed model trains. I plan to model the Laveta Pass and Cumbres Pass of the D&RGW RR in HO and in Hon3 some day when I have room, including the narrow gauge portion of the D&RGW RR from Alamosa to as far as Cumbers and and beyond (beyond-if I have the room that is!). Would also like to do a New Zealand layout one day too.

I have seen other teenage kids intersted in the hobby at model railway shows and, as I remember last year, one kid (about my age) was operating a New Zealand model train on a 9mill scale New Zealand layout, he was also a member of the "Auckland 9mill scale society", FANTASTIC layout, super detailed, mostly scratch built locos and equipment and 100% accurate!!!!!!!!

I think our hobby will grow if we teach young ones to like trains and if society doesn't descriminate the unconditional love of railways!

GREAT STUFF TRAINS AND MODEL RAILWAYS ARE-WILL NEVER EVER GET BOARD OF IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! yeah!

[Anonymous]

It's not doomed but it's slowly dying out. The popularity is not there as it use to be. There use to be a heck of a lot of hobby stores then as there are now. They use to sell trains in hardware stores that you don't see now. I have not seen any kind of electric trains sold in Dept stores now, I can probably go on and on but that's the way things are now

[Anonymous]

Its the same issue facing the horse-racing industry. Youngsters, according to their research, are not picking up the hobby/game. Its the main reason why so many racetracks (except Illinois), have co-mingled with slots and on-site gambling to help subsidize the costs and losses of running horses. I don't know about anybody elses hobby shops, but here in suburban Chicago, so many hobby shops have expanded their store fronts to include AND specialize in car models kits, RC cars and planes, etc. Almost anything but trains. Just my experience, may not truly be the case everywhere.