Is the hobby doomed?

[Bergie]

Have you guys seen the movie "Chicken Little" that's playing in theatres right now? Just curious. [:o)]

Let's move on.

Bergie

[CNJ831]

QUOTE: Originally posted by cmrproducts

If this hobby was doomed how is it that only ONE person is stating it. If it were true would there not be more that held this position and state it (Oh! wait a minute they have already left the hobby!).

While anyone can predict the end of (put name here – world – USA – hobby) some people just love to do this as it sparks controversy and gets others to respond (like myself). They are just sitting back and getting a kick over everyone trying to defend their position and not having any proof for it.

Keep on trying to defend this and feed the Tr---.

That's very simple to answer, Bob. If you read all the replies, quite clearly not one single responding poster has ever bothered to do the reseach and seriously look into the matter. This is obvious from nearly every statement starting with, or including, "In my opinion..." and lacking any documented info, pro or con. You can't find any defining information on any subject without actually looking it up. I gathered the info I have over the course of several years of perusing various publications. That's how one goes about separating the actual situation from a fantasy one.

And, as can be seen from my many other posts on all sort of subjects, I'm no troll.

CNJ831

[cmrproducts]

If this hobby was doomed how is it that only ONE person is stating it. If it were true would there not be more that held this position and state it (Oh! wait a minute they have already left the hobby!).

While anyone can predict the end of (put name here – world – USA – hobby) some people just love to do this as it sparks controversy and gets others to respond (like myself). They are just sitting back and getting a kick over everyone trying to defend their position and not having any proof for it.

Keep on trying to defend this and feed the Tr---.

You can never win this argument same as Politics, Religion, Ford vs. Chevy or Freelance vs. Prototype.

BOB H – Clarion, PA

[tangerine-jack]

QUOTE: Originally posted by jfallon

Model railroading will be doomed only if all model railroaders retreat to their basements or train rooms and hide from the public. The area I live in, Norfolk, VA, would seem to have a lot going against it for the hobby. There are very few basements, the high military population is transient, and there are a whole lot of other activities (beaches, parks, museums) to occupy your time. The nearest club with a permanent layout is about an hours drive away if the bridge-tunnel is not congested.
Despite this, model railroading is surprisingly popular. We have modular groups in N-scale (both N-trak and table-top), HO scale, S scale, and O scale Lionel and tin-plate. Our Big Train Operators group sets up and runs their G scale trains at shows and events year 'round. Within a 20 mile radius, we have 10 hobby shops that carry model railroad stuff, four of them exclusively.
The HO module group has been using an empty store space at a local mall for several months as a clubnouse. We have set up a large layout with the modules and have an open house two or three times a month. The response has been outstanding. Several people have joined our group, including some teenagers. Many visitors recall the trainsets they had as children and are amazed at how much we have advanced.

Model Railroading is alive and thriving.

I can witness to the truth of this statement as I also live in this area. What he forgot to mention was the rapid growth of the Garden Railroad here and in other places. We are not hidden away in a spare room or garage.

Jfallon, you don't have an email link in your profile, email me through mine and maybe we can link up.

[TusSagBay]

Oh No!! Now you tell me. And after only 3 short seasons (winter & spring). I've managed to break our bank and break into the kids banks each season so I can buy more stuff. Then, spend the off season (summer & fall) paying everyone back. Heavens, what will I do with all this stuff? Maybe a garage sale? Salvation Army? Oh well, no fool like an old fool (65yoa).

TusSagBay

[dave9999]

QUOTE: Originally posted by on30francisco

The following are strictly MY personal observations and biases on the current state and future of the hobby.

Now, now... That's not allowed around here. You will be tarred and feathered if you state
an opinion or observation. Especially one that doesn't correspond with a certain all knowing,
fortune telling, future seeing member. [:D] Good luck, Dave

[Anonymous]

What a stupid question. Save it for the fruit cake lady.

Threads this long on the subject may well *** it if it is.

[sfrailfan]

Hey there… by 'Goths' do you mean the ones that dress in black and wear makeup? —listen to Bauhaus and Christian Death (don't blame me, it's the name of the band)?

If so that is a great accomplishment. Hey wasn't there a post about drifting off the topic just a few links away?

Anyway, I am 36 years old, been into this hobby since I was 7 years old, introduced by my Grandfather, (best guy in the world) and this summer I will be 22 years old. What does that mean; this hobby is one thing that keeps us young and vibrant.

So who needs gloom and doom. Hey, by the way, you guys still doing that coffee shop thing? I hadn't seen the post. Oh hey espeefoamer, how was that steak?

QUOTE: Originally posted by RR Redneck

I know I made a promise to myself not to swear on here any more, but this time it is justified. Any one that says the hobby is doomed is a *** liar. I know for a fact that it is just as strong as ever before. I even converted two goths last week. (See Lionels Still Appeal To Everyone.....even goths on the Classic Toy Trains forum).

[on30francisco]

I don't believe the hobby is doomed. I have not done any reserch on it nor do I care to spend the time doing it - I'd rather work on the trains - but it would be interesting to see the statistics. The following are strictly MY personal observations and biases on the current state and future of the hobby.

I think this hobby is much more diversified than it was 20 to 40 years ago. There are many more magazines and products that cater to special interests. There are also many online sites that cater to just about any special interest you can imagine that have information on both modeling techniques and products - that are ran by mostly small, proprietary firms and interested individuals that aren’t listed in the Walthers catalog or mainstream modeling magazines. Most of these sites that have modeling information are ran by ordinary modelers such as us and do it because they truly love model railroading, want to share their knowledge with others, and aren’t trying to push a specific product or service for-profit . I used to subscribe to general interest model railroading magazines but now I only subscribe to magazines that cater to my interests. Today, I get most of my information via the internet.

I do not judge the current state of the hobby by the current trend of the vanishing LHSs. Due to new technology, times have changed and a lot of LHSs are going the way of the 8 track cartridge. They either find it hard or choose not to compete - in price, knowledge, and availability - with the variety of products and special interests that exist in the world of model railroading today. I’ve just about given up on our LHSs in the SF Bay Area. If something I want isn’t listed in the Walthers catalog, they tell me it is either discontinued or never existed. Some don’t even regularly stock some common HO items or Pollyscale paints let alone specialty products.

My modelling interests are in a minority - I model a small indoor Large Scale logging/industrial/backwoods-type theme and also delve into On30. Besides using some RTR equipment, I am attracted to and enjoy scratchbuilding models based on unusual and unique rolling stock, locos, and structures. If it’s unusual and unique, I’m attracted to it! I find my needs and wallet are much better served by the online hobby shops that deal in specialized products by smaller firms that aren’t listed in Walthers – and some mainstream ones that are. I’ve also noticed that when I ask the clerks at our LHSs about some product that they either don’t stock or isn’t a big money maker for them, they try to brush me off and act as If I’m wasting their time. I realize that all not LHSs are like this but that kind of attitude would surely discourage any newbie from taking up the hobby - it certainly instills in me a very negative attitude toward LHSs . The online shops I’ve dealt with, including Trainworld, treat me as if I’m the only customer they have and are more than willing to answer my inqueries about the different products that are currently available.

All in all, I think because of today’s technology the current state of the hobby has evolved from where it was in the past. Today, the variety of products and the availability of information is fantastic. I remember over thirty years ago if you had a special, non-mainstream interest, you were at the mercy of the mainstream model railroading industry for all your information and products. With the internet, this has changed and the access to information and just about every current product – and some not-so-current products – are just a mouseclick away.

[Anonymous]

I think the two year old of my son's friend is hooked. When his parents mention my name he either says "All Aboard" or choo choo. Come to think of it my son was home this weekend and turned on the trains. Yes prices are up and even I don't like that as well some units are now so fragile with all the add on parts that to breath on them is to risk damage. But the hobby will survive and I will continue to buy the mid line items that I can afford for now and enjoy them. Happy Highballing. Phil

[CNJ831]

QUOTE: Originally posted by IRONROOSTER

Whether things cost more or less (adjusted for inflation or not) now than at some arbitrary point in the past is irrelevant to the hobby continuing or not. Prices today relative to disposable income determines how much can be bought. Individuals who are priced out altogether wouldn't be helped much by lower prices since they need to devote their resources elsewhere.

Being priced out of or kept from the hobby is a very significant factor in that the rising cost of model railroading deters younger people, far more than those in their middle or late years, from entering the hobby. Very little or no new blood in the hobby results in it becoming an ever shrinking, rich old man's form of entertainment.

QUOTE:
Magazine subscription figures are irrelelvant. Newspaper circulation has been declining for years, the number of newpapers has been declining. But no one claims there are fewer people in the U.S. Just as people get their news elsewhere, so do model railroaders get their info elsewhere. (As an aside, compared to 35 years ago when I started, there are a lot more magazines available. Second aside, no one actually knows how many different people purchase magazines or did in the past.)

Absolutely not. There is no basis of comparison between disposable daily newspapers (all their info is available in better fashion from CNN hourly) and reference publications like MR, RMC, et.al. Most guys hold on to their model railroad publications indefinitely because they contain valued guidance and reference material. Newspapers are thrown away at the end of the day. People buy hobby magazines to improve their skills. In that light, circulation should not decrease dramatically over time (the Internet is really a poor substitute for magazine content).

QUOTE:
Number of hobby shops is irrelevant. There too many other ways to shop - mail, shows, Interenet, etc.

Totally untrue! Hobby shops are the main point of exposure of the hobby for potential newbies. The Net and on-line dealers may be great for those of us long in the hobby who know just what we are looking for and how to proceed but not for the newbie. On-line stores are really designed for experienced shoppers, not those just entering the hobby. Likewise, it's very confusing for many who, if lacking in experience, ask a seemingly simple question on-line and get 20 diverging opinions in reply (some of which may be totally wrong!). Lack of real-world hobby shops seriously cuts into the number of potential new modelers.

QUOTE:
Increasing average age of hobbyists is to be expected with increasing average age of the population.

Indeed it is, considering the great influence of the Baby Boomers in American culture and population. However, the rise in the supposed average age of MR readers is so dramatic over the years (advancing 3 for every 5 actual years that pass) it also points out that younger newbies as almost absent from the figures.

QUOTE:
No one knows how many model railroaders there are or how much they spend , except the WGH site which claims

More than 500,000 American adults enjoy the model railroading hobby, spending $500 million annually.

Unfortunately, while this looks good, they don't reveal what's included in this figure or now it compares to the past.

I agree here that these figures are very ill-defined and no one can make much of them, pro or con. However, but virtue of the fact that the manufacturers have gone to very limited production runs (and often single runs at that) tends to indicate that they are aiming at smaller, modeler-specific, markets and that there is lesser accross the board demand. Incidentally, it is very interesting to see just what new trends began in the hobby about the time WGH was initiated and who these trends most impacted and why.

QUOTE:
Since this type of thing is usually measured by number of participants, sales, or a combination of the two over time and since no one has this information the only indicator left is breadth of product line. It's not as good of course, but it's really all we have.

And good news, the number of products has been increasing alot. Therefore the hobby looks to be in good shape.

On the other hand the number of independant major manufacturers has declined surprisingly (and continues to do so) in the past 20 years, while the count of new players above the niche level is very small. Neither are good signs. So, we're back at the starting point once again.

CNJ831

[jfallon]

Model railroading will be doomed only if all model railroaders retreat to their basements or train rooms and hide from the public. The area I live in, Norfolk, VA, would seem to have a lot going against it for the hobby. There are very few basements, the high military population is transient, and there are a whole lot of other activities (beaches, parks, museums) to occupy your time. The nearest club with a permanent layout is about an hours drive away if the bridge-tunnel is not congested.
Despite this, model railroading is surprisingly popular. We have modular groups in N-scale (both N-trak and table-top), HO scale, S scale, and O scale Lionel and tin-plate. Our Big Train Operators group sets up and runs their G scale trains at shows and events year 'round. Within a 20 mile radius, we have 10 hobby shops that carry model railroad stuff, four of them exclusively.
The HO module group has been using an empty store space at a local mall for several months as a clubnouse. We have set up a large layout with the modules and have an open house two or three times a month. The response has been outstanding. Several people have joined our group, including some teenagers. Many visitors recall the trainsets they had as children and are amazed at how much we have advanced.

Model Railroading is alive and thriving.

[TBat55]

Next time you're in a waiting room leave behind a copy of Model Railroader. Nobody should mind and somebody new might get get interested.

[Anonymous]

Thats a matter of opinion. I started in my 20's and never stopped. 2 hobby shops that specializing MR have opened in my area[soapbox] so no the hobby isn't doomed thats my[2c]

[IRONROOSTER]

Whether things cost more or less (adjusted for inflation or not) now than at some arbitrary point in the past is irrelevant to the hobby continuing or not. Prices today relative to disposable income determines how much can be bought. Individuals who are priced out altogether wouldn't be helped much by lower prices since they need to devote their resources elsewhere.

Magazine subscription figures are irrelelvant. Newspaper circulation has been declining for years, the number of newpapers has been declining. But no one claims there are fewer people in the U.S. Just as people get their news elsewhere, so do model railroaders get their info elsewhere. (As an aside, compared to 35 years ago when I started, there are a lot more magazines available. Second aside, no one actually knows how many different people purchase magazines or did in the past.)

Number of hobby shops is irrelevant. There too many other ways to shop - mail, shows, Interenet, etc.

Increasing average age of hobbyists is to be expected with increasing average age of the population.

No one knows how many model railroaders there are or how much they spend , except the WGH site which claims

QUOTE:
More than 500,000 American adults enjoy the model railroading hobby, spending $500 million annually.

Unfortunately, while this looks good, they don't reveal what's included in this figure or now it compares to the past.

Since this type of thing is usually measured by number of participants, sales, or a combination of the two over time and since no one has this information the only indicator left is breadth of product line. It's not as good of course, but it's really all we have.

And good news, the number of products has been increasing alot. Therefore the hobby looks to be in good shape.

Enjoy
Paul

[CNJ831]

QUOTE: Originally posted by dave9999

Could someone please bump that record player... it seems that we have a broken
record. Or, someone with way too much time to spend on one subject.

And CNJ831... if that is your real name... I read what the others found as your evidence
of the demise of the hobby and it was pretty thin. My evidence, as I have stated before,
is simply the number of products and manufacturers of these products. The well stocked hobby shops in my area and other areas that I have visited. The number of online dealers and their enormous list of available products. The number of members
of this forum and others. The new products released each and every month. The advancing technology of DCC and sound. The impressive rise in quality of detail
in the locos that are available and the endless list of roadnames available.

The only thing you may have read were posts from an individual who, like so many others, criticized my research but offered nothing but B.S. in response. In his failed counterpoints he didn't have his item pricing straight, employed a single price of a single item from 35 years ago adjusted by the CPI to claim how things had gotten cheaper, and offered only the current figure on American's leisure time (lacking any comparison with earlier dates) to concluded my point about decreasing leisure time wasn't true. It's easy to try and B.S. your way around any point but an astute reader will quickly spot it.

QUOTE:
These points don't have to be documented by some overbearing researcher, they are
right there in your face.I'm not saying that the hobby is bullet proof, I just don't see the
"doomsday theory " that you see. Again, this is ONLY my observation. Now, go ahead
and debunk it with your tired line about the lack of documented evidence. While you're
at it, please give us something more than magazine subscriptions and old folks. I,
personally haven't bought a copy of Model Railroader magazine in months, but I have
purchased quite a few pricey locos. Maybe if I spent my cash on magazines, the hobby
would survive[%-)]. Dave (that is my real name)

In any serious discussion of the state of an industry, since when did limited personal observation outweigh published data or stats (the industry's own in many cases)? Not to be offensive but do you have any personal knowledge whatever how many units of new items are coming to market to backup you statement? Without numbers regarding that, any claims that these are obviously huge, evaporates in an instant. I could just as easily claim that the mfg.s are producing only 300 of each item, or that Walthers only stocks 30% of what they list in their catalog. But that would be just B.S. because I lack any such facts...the same way that claiming huge number of multiple items are in the market place today. The very fact that we've gone from runs large enough to result in major dumping (a situation virtually unknown among quality models 15-20 years ago), to limited runs that may be sold out before actual delivery, clearly demonstrates a dramatic contraction in what the manufacturers feel the market can handle. As to the manufacturers themselves, when did the last major new company, not already associated with the hobby, enter the marketplace? It's been a lot of years. How many have been swallowed up or gone bankrupt recently? In Europe, where trains are seen by millions every day, why is model production/companies in such very serious straights?

Decades ago Mantua sold 100,000 Goats. Varney a similar number of Docksides, in just one decade. Athearn claimed it sold 1,000,000+ F7A's over the years. Do you really think that this could be accomplished in today's hobby in a similar time period? It actually appears that runs of many individual highend plastic locomotives today are in the same range as brass models were a couple of decades ago! All these are based on items appearing in the hobby press or from other reliable sources.

So...if you don't like what you are hearing in this discussion, please just don't bother reading it any more. It's a subject of sincere interest to at least a few here and the stituation itself is certainly not going to go away.

CNJ831

[dave9999]

Could someone please bump that record player... it seems that we have a broken
record. Or, someone with way too much time to spend on one subject.

I say we just wait and see for ourselves instead of arguing over and over with no one
providing any concrete evidence... for either side of the debate. If the bottom falls
out of the model railroad industry, then so be it... although I doubt it will happen anytime
soon(opinion). If it continues to thrive, then so be it.

And CNJ831... if that is your real name... I read what the others found as your evidence
of the demise of the hobby and it was pretty thin. My evidence, as I have stated before,
is simply the number of products and manufacturers of these products. The well stocked hobby shops in my area and other areas that I have visited. The number of online dealers and their enormous list of available products. The number of members
of this forum and others. The new products released each and every month. The advancing technology of DCC and sound. The impressive rise in quality of detail
in the locos that are available and the endless list of roadnames available.

These points don't have to be documented by some overbearing researcher, they are
right there in your face.I'm not saying that the hobby is bullet proof, I just don't see the
"doomsday theory " that you see. Again, this is ONLY my observation. Now, go ahead
and debunk it with your tired line about the lack of documented evidence. While you're
at it, please give us something more than magazine subscriptions and old folks. I,
personally haven't bought a copy of Model Railroader magazine in months, but I have
purchased quite a few pricey locos. Maybe if I spent my cash on magazines, the hobby
would survive[%-)]. Dave (that is my real name)

[wctransfer]

Im 13 and LOVE the hobby. I railfan the WC almost everyday. I model the SOO,WC,and CNW. I have a nice collection of cars and units also. The hobby isnt dieing, its just changing. I do think though that there are becoming less kids involved, but for now it couldnt be better.

Alec

[CNJ831]

QUOTE: Originally posted by edkowal

QUOTE: Originally posted by CNJ831

... I had expected to find at least a few verifiable indicators or trends that would at least imply things were better than the many downward facts, figures, and trends were at first suggesting. Unfortunately, I never found a single one. I've asked posters here and on other forums for 4 years now to please post any verifiable, published, positive indicators or figures about the hobby's recent changes in direction. To date not a single instance of this has been offered...only endless, baseless, opinion. From this, I can only conclude that there simply are no upbeat signs anywhere....


CNJ831

Your conclusion does not follow from your statement of findings.

Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

Yes, Ed, that's a nice but too often used quotation employed when no evidence can counter an idea and it doesn't advance the discussion. If the downward trends are all so obvious, why should improving trends be so totally obscure, unless they are miniscule or nonexistant? I've never seen nor heard of a pig flying. But does that really still imply that maybe they can fly (out side of a tornado)? I think not.

In any serious study one has to go with the data available at the time. Often the data set may not as complete as one would wish and this may be criticized by others. But the concept postulated still remains viable and should not be dismissed until it can be disproven by a better set of opposing facts...not just a bunch of "not in my opinion(s)".

So, we come back to the starting point of the controversey, "Where are the published/documented facts, signs, figures, trends that show an upbeat to the hobby's future?" Can no one supply even a single unquestionable example? If absolutely none are to be found...what conclusion must be drawn?

CNJ831

[grayfox1119]

It will be "cool" again to work with ones hands because video games etc. are not satisfying a basic human need....to create something. I don't care if it is landscaping, gardening, kit building, woodworking....whatever.....people have the need to show off their talents with pride, to say.." I made that ". You cannot get that with IPODS and Video games, etc., their pleasure is fleeting, fun, but fleeting.
Model railroading is not in trouble and will live on for a long time.....because it fills a basic need and is rewarding and has "staying power ".

[Anonymous]

QUOTE: Originally posted by Eriediamond

Nope, and I'm a 64 year old teenager!!!!!![(-D][(-D]

......and I'm a 68 year old teenager. I was in the hobby 35 years ago in HO Scale but I realized that the cost of rearing my children was incompatible with model railroading at that time. End of joyous pursuit pro tem.

About a year ago, on a whim, I stopped in Dayton Model Railways and realized it was time to "get back into harness". I now have the time and wherewithal and can pretty much do what I want in MRR. Two major drawbacks. First technology is so advanced I am a rookie again. Secondly when the kids were grown and out on their own the large family manse with the huge yard was swapped for a little Cape Cod with a small yard which means I am now an N Scaler. It's still just as much fun and I'm glad to be back.

Proof that my MRR experience was so long ago? My favorite and most expensive model at that time was a Tyco Mikado. :-)

[jfugate]

I also notice the public's perception of what is "cool" has changed.

It was cool in the 1950s and 60s to work with your hands, and have a hobby that involved a lot of "craftsman" skills. These days, that has become sidelined in favor of a hobby that involves some form of media and technology -- the pinacle being computer games. Use your mind (coupled with hand-eye coordination).

So you could say, hands are out, mushy brains are in. [swg]

[edkowal]

QUOTE: Originally posted by CNJ831

... I had expected to find at least a few verifiable indicators or trends that would at least imply things were better than the many downward facts, figures, and trends were at first suggesting. Unfortunately, I never found a single one. I've asked posters here and on other forums for 4 years now to please post any verifiable, published, positive indicators or figures about the hobby's recent changes in direction. To date not a single instance of this has been offered...only endless, baseless, opinion. From this, I can only conclude that there simply are no upbeat signs anywhere....


CNJ831

Your conclusion does not follow from your statement of findings.

Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

-Ed

[Beowulf]

Not doomed, just different. The emphasis used to be on building things, now it is on purchasing. In the past, a kid or adult on limited budget could save up for an item, now one must scout the "what's new" announcements to reserve in time.

Few enjoy building trackwork, hardly any one enjoys basic electronics, building throttles, turnout machine power sources, diode matrixes, switch machines or even switch machine linkages. (Such columns have disappeared from magazines.) Even re-motoring and re-gearing have been replaced by the desire to just wait and buy the new version.

With little of oneself invested in the hobby beyond money, it is easy to fold and go on to whatever else the media tells you is a popular hobby. I know some fellows who save EVERY box their rolling stock comes in so it will bring a better price upon re-sale.

There will be a market for software simulations, virtual reality simulations, for ready-to-run modules with extensive computer support, and the like that can be quickly acquired and quickly disposed of.

Hobbiests who take the slogan "Spend, don't mend!" seriously are changing the hobby.

[Anonymous]

I really don't think there is any way the Hobby is doomed. When I show son and nephews my layout they absolutely love it. I would like to think that as long as there are trains, people will want to model them.
I have to say I am astonished at how heated this debate has got. The age of the modeller may change and ready to run may prevail over scratch building but it's not going to stop.

[Anonymous]

If the hobby is dying,at what point did this death spiral begin? When did it peak? The sixties? nineties? when more boomers got back into the hobby, after years of other recreations? Basing it on boomer decline means that the most boomer reached their peak interest at that time, leaving the valleys for the next generations to follow. Now, really I don't care, but when is it officially dead? With more magazine out there,and some of them covering more detailed specific projects then MRR, it's not surprising seeing their circulation down. As for buyouts of companys, it's the same in the rest of the business world, even food companys buy out other products, railroads merge. RTR, must make money, because that's what we getting. Changes happen all the time and people are reluctant to change, this discuusion will go on, regardless of facts or opinion, heck, we're all dying, but we just don't know when. go build your trains and enjoy it while you can.. take care, Mike H.

[jfugate]

QUOTE:
So IMHO model railroading is not dying. It will probably contract some in absolute numbers. But the number of interesting, operating, scenicked layouts will expand. And that is what the manufacturers are counting on.

Very insightful comment, Fred!

Moving to RTR instead of scratchbuild everything would tend to make the number of layouts that get past the plywood pacific stage go up ... and with that the hobby market for more stuff goes up.

From a purely mercenary business point of view, the RTR trend in the hobby would tend to increase the demand for more goods.

So headcount may not be nearly as important as layout count. We might have a million new modelers come into the hobby, but if 99% of them were armchair modelers because you had to hand build so much, the magazines might like it, but the hobby business isn't going to see much effect.

Which means the RTR trend all the old-timers are bemoaning could be the salvation of the hobby market! [swg]

[fwright]

I wish I had some facts to present, but I don't so you'all get to get my opinion.

First, demographics. We all know about the relative size of the boomer generation. So even if the same percentages of people in following generations became MRs, the number of people in the hobby would at best see near zero growth. Likely reality is that the percentage of post-boomers who become model railroaders will drop, which means there will likely be some contraction of absolute numbers in the hobby. How much? Hard to say.

Second, there are several reasons for the percentage of people in model railroading dropping - most have been mentioned. Exposure to prototype railroads today is certainly less than in the '50s. Unknown whether exposure to toy trains has dropped or not, but certainly the level of exposure has. Back in the '50s, toy trains were THE toy for boys. The proliferation of hobbies to choose from also impacts the percentage, just as the proliferation of cable TV channels has reduced viewership of any given channel. Despite the gloomy numbers, model railroading has held its own much better than many hobbies, probably because of the variety of skills and mental challenges, and the interactivity. Compared to stamp and coin collecting, from my point of view, model railroading has a much brighter future because of the multiple aspects and challenges. It can even successfully compete with many of the computer-based hobbies.

Third, available time, skills, and tools. Today, those parents raising kids have far less time on their hands (I'm speaking generally, obviously there are plenty of specific exceptions). The number of single income families has been steadily dropping, which means the household chores and parenting have to be carved out from 2 full time employees schedules. Expectations of higher income usually carry an expectation of longer work hours, futher reducing time for hobbies. The days of kids amusing themselves after school and during summers with things like sandlot ball games and the like are pretty much gone. Instead, parents are busy serving as volunteers, coaches, leaders, team moms, fund-raising, etc., for the now scheduled activities of the kids during after-school hours. When a boy got a train set as a gift, Dad would often take a Saturday and build his son a train table and more. Dad had the skills and tools to throw together a simple 4x8. Now, many more Dads have never done a project like building a train table. Saturdays are full of scheduled sports and other events. On the flip side, tools for model railroading and home maintenance have never been cheaper (in relative terms) or so available. In the '50s, owning some type of power saw in a middel class home was not anywhere near universal. Screws holes were frequently drilled with a hand drill; there were no power screw drivers in most homes. Rail nippers were unheard of. Most locomotives and rolling stock were built from kits. Easy-to-use scenery materials were unavailable. As a result, every aspect of model railroading took far more time than it generally does today. And a much lower percentage of layouts ever made it beyond the "Plywood Central" stage.

So IMHO model railroading is not dying. It will probably contract some in absolute numbers. But the number of interesting, operating, scenicked layouts will expand. And that is what the manufacturers are counting on.

"I should be modeling and not posting...."
Fred W

[waltersrails]

never will the hobby die