http://www.trainboard.com/railimages/showgallery.php?cat=500&ppuser=5959
If one could roll back the hands of time... They would be waiting for the next train into the future. A. H. Francey 1921-2007
QUOTE: Originally posted by alco_fan QUOTE: Originally posted by Student of Big Sky Blue I hope I have not bored you, What's boring is that you posted this exact same thing a day or two ago, basically word for word. Are you gloom and doom guys so desparate that you keep posting until somebody takes the bait?
QUOTE: Originally posted by Student of Big Sky Blue I hope I have not bored you,
Best Regards, Big John
Kiva Valley Railway- Freelanced road in central Arizona. Visit the link to see my MR forum thread on The Building of the Whitton Branch on the Kiva Valley Railway
QUOTE: Originally posted by CNJ831 QUOTE: Originally posted by dave9999 Let's be real people. Does anyone think that Lifelike, Atlas, Kato, Athearn, Bachman, Accurail, Kadee... (should I go on) would bother with releasing new locos and rolling stock year after year after year if the numbers were this small? Just trying to put this in perspective... Good luck, Dave But Dave, what makes you think that those 10,000 "serious" modelers are the only ones that buy new locomotives and other hobby-related items and keep the manufacturers afloat? That's like infering that only serious artists buy painting materials and canvas, or that only professional photographers buy cameras. The 10,000 "serious" modelers (however you wi***o define that term) is a very realistic figure but it is necessarily only a small fraction of the several hundred thousand that dabble in the hobby one way and another today. However, cut the latter figure by 2/3 or more and then speculate how good things might be for model railroading. All the magazines, save for MR and perhaps RMC, would outright fail. Runs of new locomotives would need to be in the range of just hundreds to sell out. Companies that produce the misc. detailing and scenicking items have no great profit margin today and most would likely close shop if the hobby declined dramatically. It's definitely is quite predictable. One needs to understand the past to grasp what the future holds - see my earlier post. CNJ831
QUOTE: Originally posted by dave9999 Let's be real people. Does anyone think that Lifelike, Atlas, Kato, Athearn, Bachman, Accurail, Kadee... (should I go on) would bother with releasing new locos and rolling stock year after year after year if the numbers were this small? Just trying to put this in perspective... Good luck, Dave
QUOTE: You are absolutely right with the statement "however you wi***o define that term". A serious modeler, to me, isn't measured by one's layout, but one's passion. But that's my opinion and really has no relevance to this issue. I believe, to manufacturers, serious modeler is measured by one's cash flow. And there is nothing wrong with that... it's called good business sense. I am very unlikely to do a job for someone who doesn't have the money to pay me(freinds and family excluded). So I would call the people who do pay me "serious" about their project... if they weren't , I wouldn't be doing it. And they are "serious" even if the job is small. So, if someone is spending their hard earned money, they are serious. Again, that's just my opinion. I do believe that there are more than enough people spending money to keep the hobby going. Have you picked up a Walther's catalog lately? I seriously doubt that many products would be available if no one was buying them. So, this "sky is falling" thing that comes up fairly often really doesn't hold water. I think it's just folks with too much time on their hands... and a poor grasp on reality. How many folks do you know, personally, that are into crafts? Yet we have two huge craft stores and a crafts department in every one of our six Walmarts here in Pensacola. Again, there are enough people buying the merchandise to keep the business going. So, I think that "serious" can be defined many ways. And I agree that that it's not just the folks with the empires in the basement that are purchasing the products, but I believe the number of "serious" modelers is vastly larger than 10,000 (I would still like to see where this statistic came from). Good luck, Dave
QUOTE: Originally posted by CNJ831 An interersting set of statistics, especially when one considers that only 2-3% of all layouts are more than roughly ten feet square (less than the size of a small spare bedroom). It makes one wonder why, month after month, the magazines offer us basement filling empires that have no relation whatever to what the typical modeler is attempting to accomplish. CNJ831
QUOTE: Originally posted by andrechapelon Neither do the cars featured in "Road & Track" or "Car & Driver". OTOH, the people who have the nice layouts are the ones who actually WRITE about them. The staff at MR doesn't go door to door looking for them. Build a small layout and write about it. Who knows? It might actually appear in MR. Andre
QUOTE: Originally posted by dave9999 ... if someone is spending their hard earned money, they are serious. Again, that's just my opinion.
QUOTE: I do believe that there are more than enough people spending money to keep the hobby going. Have you picked up a Walther's catalog lately? I seriously doubt that many products would be available if no one was buying them. So, this "sky is falling" thing that comes up fairly often really doesn't hold water. I think it's just folks with too much time on their hands... and a poor grasp on reality.
QUOTE: How many folks do you know, personally, that are into crafts? Yet we have two huge craft stores and a crafts department in every one of our six Walmarts here in Pensacola. Again, there are enough people buying the merchandise to keep the business going.
QUOTE: Originally posted by BigRusty Lots of interesting opinions. Think about this. The last steam engines disappeared from sight about fifty years ago. No one under fifty ever saw one run through his town. Passenger services ended about forty years ago. No one under forty ever saw a passenger train, or rode on one, with the exception of a few Amtrak and commuter routes. In the late fifties I built my son an elaborate AF 6 x 12 foot layout. He never became a model railroader. None of my four male grandchildren were given train sets. They are computer whizzes in their twenties now. A large percentage of respondents to polls shows that they are modeling the"transition period" when both steam and diesels shared the rails for a few years. Who are these people? Like me they are old enough to have lived through that era. And I'm almost eighty years old. It is therefore primarily a nostalgia thing. When we are dead and gone, where are the model railroaders going to come from? That leaves a few fifty year olds who are fascinated with Amtrak and the few freight railroads that exist in business. A lot of the rails have been torn up long ago. Where is the nostalgia in a Rails to Trails ROW? The baby boomer generation, including my two kids, are into ACTIVE endeavors, such as golf, hiking, you name it. They want to be doers not spectators. Where is the hobby going, slowly but surely down hill, until a relatively few hobbyists won't be able to support the remaining manufacturers. In other words they are in the running board and buggy whip business. Time marches on.
QUOTE: Originally posted by BigRusty ...No one under fifty ever saw one run through his town. Passenger services ended about forty years ago. No one under forty ever saw a passenger train, or rode on one, with the exception of a few Amtrak and commuter routes. ... Who are these people? Like me they are old enough to have lived through that era. And I'm almost eighty years old. It is therefore primarily a nostalgia thing. When we are dead and gone, where are the model railroaders going to come from?
Five out of four people have trouble with fractions. -AnonymousThree may keep a secret, if two of them are dead. -Benjamin Franklin "You don't have to be Jeeves to love butlers, but it helps." (Followers of Levi's Real Jewish Rye will get this one) -Ed K "A potted watch never boils." -Ed Kowal If it's not fun, why do it ? -Ben & Jerry
QUOTE: Originally posted by alexander13 The reason kids aren't coming into the hobby is because trains aren't "cool" with kids. there are kids who have mocked me for having trains. however there is a quite healthy teen railfan place in another trains.com forum.
QUOTE: Originally posted by edkowal Yes, you are all correct, the hobby is doomed. As a matter of fact the hobby of model railoading will cease to exist this coming February 18, so get those projects completed before the hobby dies. And anybody who has subscriptions to magazines that go past that date, well sorry, but no refunds. -Ed
QUOTE: Originally posted by CNJ831 QUOTE: Originally posted by dave9999 ... if someone is spending their hard earned money, they are serious. Again, that's just my opinion. No, Dave, that is what's called a valuable customer. The person can be a complete twit but have the money to spend on whatever they want. The richer they are, the more likely it is to be just a whim they are spending hard cash on. There's a big difference between that and someone serious about a particular project, subject, or purchase.
QUOTE: Originally posted by dave9999 I do believe that there are more than enough people spending money to keep the hobby going. Have you picked up a Walther's catalog lately? I seriously doubt that many products would be available if no one was buying them. So, this "sky is falling" thing that comes up fairly often really doesn't hold water. I think it's just folks with too much time on their hands... and a poor grasp on reality.
QUOTE: Originally posted by CNJ831 There's a lot of smoke and mirrors related to the Walthers catalog. At any given time, it's been said that around 50% of their listed products are unavailable/backordered. This complaint has been going on for years and just about everybody is familiar with.. And I'm afraid it's the Pollyannas that have the poor grasp on reality. No matter how many times this particular subject surfaces, I'm afraid it is those who feel the hobby's future is very bright who never...ever...offer a single shread of verifiable evidence that will demonstrate their point of view. It always becomes at matter of: I can't acknowledge your statistics; I won't accept the idea; well...not in my opinion; a guy at the LHS said...; there's got to be an alternate explanation to your every point...I just have no idea what it might be...but...but..! If the outlook was great, then someone would be able to counter each point with published figures we could all see for ourselves. To date, that's never happened even once.
QUOTE: ]Originally posted by dave9999 How many folks do you know, personally, that are into crafts? Yet we have two huge craft stores and a crafts department in every one of our six Walmarts here in Pensacola. Again, there are enough people buying the merchandise to keep the business going.
QUOTE: Originally posted by CNJ831 Are you kidding? I am personally acquainted with a great many and I'd be willing to bet that people into arts and crafts outnumber model railroaders 100:1 - if not far more! Arts and crafts is a huge business today. I go into these stores regularly and they are always jammed...I go into the LHS and odds are I'm the only customer![V] CNJ831
QUOTE: Originally posted by Student of Big Sky Blue QUOTE: Originally posted by BigRusty Lots of interesting opinions. Think about this. The last steam engines disappeared from sight about fifty years ago. No one under fifty ever saw one run through his town. Passenger services ended about forty years ago. No one under forty ever saw a passenger train, or rode on one, with the exception of a few Amtrak and commuter routes. In the late fifties I built my son an elaborate AF 6 x 12 foot layout. He never became a model railroader. None of my four male grandchildren were given train sets. They are computer whizzes in their twenties now. A large percentage of respondents to polls shows that they are modeling the"transition period" when both steam and diesels shared the rails for a few years. Who are these people? Like me they are old enough to have lived through that era. And I'm almost eighty years old. It is therefore primarily a nostalgia thing. When we are dead and gone, where are the model railroaders going to come from? That leaves a few fifty year olds who are fascinated with Amtrak and the few freight railroads that exist in business. A lot of the rails have been torn up long ago. Where is the nostalgia in a Rails to Trails ROW? The baby boomer generation, including my two kids, are into ACTIVE endeavors, such as golf, hiking, you name it. They want to be doers not spectators. Where is the hobby going, slowly but surely down hill, until a relatively few hobbyists won't be able to support the remaining manufacturers. In other words they are in the running board and buggy whip business. Time marches on. Since I am only 23 years old. If Model railroading really does go toes up. Looks like I get to buy stuff cheap. James
-Dan
Builder of Bowser steam! Railimages Site
"I like my Pullman Standards & Budds in Stainless Steel flavors, thank you!"
QUOTE: Originally posted by NeO6874 Personally, I have been away from the hobby for too long, with having moved in High school, and now college. But what is bringing me back now is the memories of spending an entire afternoon watching the train run around its figure-8 oval for hours on end (actually, it was a raised fig-8, with a bridge so the train passed over the lower track), and going to other family member's houses, and seeing their trains during the holidays. Though the box of old MR magazines falling on me might've done something about it too..... [8D]
QUOTE: Originally posted by selector Saddle-making....now THERE'S a dying hobby! Who makes saddles, anyway? No one rides horses any more...do they?
QUOTE: Originally posted by Student of Big Sky Blue QUOTE: Originally posted by NeO6874 Personally, I have been away from the hobby for too long, with having moved in High school, and now college. But what is bringing me back now is the memories of spending an entire afternoon watching the train run around its figure-8 oval for hours on end (actually, it was a raised fig-8, with a bridge so the train passed over the lower track), and going to other family member's houses, and seeing their trains during the holidays. Though the box of old MR magazines falling on me might've done something about it too..... [8D] I can sympathise with participating in the hobby while in school. When I was in college My model railroading slowed to a tricle In the 4 years I I went to school I got three projects done in that time. (However managed to start like another 7) However I keep plugging away. And something always seems on the verge of materialization. Im hoping that if I am patient eneugh it will. QUOTE: Originally posted by selector Saddle-making....now THERE'S a dying hobby! Who makes saddles, anyway? No one rides horses any more...do they? Well all the cattle ranchers would be glad to know their primary means of conveyance have suddenly become obsolete. Anyone else know how to herd cattle effectivly on a long cattle drive. I have seen ATVs used effectivly. But they alas have limited range.
QUOTE: Originally posted by dave9999 Alright, this is getting boring... There was a topic awhile back entitled something like "Who Buys These Expensive Locos?" As I read the thread, I thought "I do". Trust me when I say that I'm far from rich... but what some of the people thought were outrageous prices for a locomotive, seemed reasonable to me. Some were saying things such as "I would never pay $300 for a locomotive." But, I have several $300 locomotives. Again, it's a matter of perception. So, for you to say that people who have money are not serious is not very objective. And also notice, I said "people who spend their hard earned money"
QUOTE: Originally posted by CNJ831 And I'm afraid it's the Pollyannas that have the poor grasp on reality. No matter how many times this particular subject surfaces, I'm afraid it is those who feel the hobby's future is very bright who never...ever...offer a single shread of verifiable evidence that will demonstrate their point of view. It always becomes at matter of: I can't acknowledge your statistics; I won't accept the idea; well...not in my opinion; a guy at the LHS said...; there's got to be an alternate explanation to your every point...I just have no idea what it might be...but...but..! If the outlook was great, then someone would be able to counter each point with published figures we could all see for ourselves. To date, that's never happened even once.
QUOTE: ]Originally posted by dave0000 As for the Pollyannas not providing evidence... where is the evidence in favor of the naysayers?
QUOTE: ]Originally posted by dave9999 No, actually I wasn't kidding... maybe you know more blue haired old ladies than I do. Maybe I don't know a lot of arts and crafts people. But, your 100:1 ratio of blue haired old ladies to model railroaders is yet another unsubstantiated statistic... unless of course you have visited every crafts store and every train store in the country, did a head count, and compared the two. And then, I guess you did research into the profit and loss of the two industries. Then, I suppose you polled the customer base as to their spending habits at each? I know it sounds like I'm being a real smarta** and in a way I am. It's not directed at you, but to try and prove a point. Anyone can post a statistic and I say that 99.9% are bogus.[:)] And bogus statistics just get everyone up in arms about the "poor and failing" hobby that we all enjoy. When I walk in to my LHS and see empty shelves, or can't find a single online dealer, then I'll worry. [/i] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (Sorry folks, I can seem to separate the folliwing from the previously quoted paragraph by Dave999) I certainly can't speak for the arts & crafts situation where you live but here on the East Coast those stores are doing a landoffice business and their customer base are women in their 30's and 40's...not blue-haired old ladies. We have a number of such stores in my area and they are continuously filled with customers. LHS are always empty (we used to have six MRR shops in my area...we are now down to one and he plans to downsize) . I don't believe it is the aim of most of the naysayers to get other hobbyists up in arms. It is far more a matter of trying to educate and inform them. Most hobbyists, in my experience, haven't a clue regarding the hows and whys of the hobby's getting where it is today. Nor do they understand who is in it and largely why. Many seem to think that because they are hobbyists, things must be flourishing and have an endless future ahead of them. The so-called naysayers simply are attempting to put things in their proper perspective. Believe me, no one loves and enjoys the hobby more than I do but that doesn't cause me to close my eyes to reality. CNJ831 Reply NevinW Member sinceJanuary 2001 From: Nevada 825 posts Posted by NevinW on Monday, January 23, 2006 8:55 AM I think that a lot of people are not taking into account the interest in Garden Railroading. That is where I see much of the newer interest in model railroading going. Women seen to be far more willing to show an interest in garden railroading, my wife being a perfect example. Take a look at Kalbach's sister publication. It certainly looks like it is doing pretty well. If model railroading is dying, then so are aircraft and boats modeling too. - Nevin Reply DigitalGriffin Member sinceDecember 2004 From: Pa. 3,361 posts Posted by DigitalGriffin on Monday, January 23, 2006 9:31 AM It's sad but true. I believe Model Railroading is a dieing hobby. The future of any hobby is in it's children. But how can this hobby compete with $50.00+ kits? This doesn't even include supplies and additional materials. I personally have about $200 just in light tools and supplies for that model. (Xacto blades, Dremmel, sand paper, paints, putty, clamps, decal setting solution etc...) If I were a kid today and didn't know any better, I would be thinking, "The instant gratification of a $50.00 video game is better and more exciting than a model. And since I only get like 3->4 video games a year I'm going to buy the game." There's something to be said however for putting together something yourself. Not only does it get very exciting when you are close to finishing your model, but you can also take great pride in the finished product that will last long past any video game. I also think RTR kits are great. It saves me a lot of time for the 1000's of other structures and kits I do have to build by hand on my 600+ sq ft layout. And sometimes the detail in RTRs is actually better than I can accomplish on my own. Atlas reefers come to mind. Although branchline blueprint series is real close, or better in some aspects) Don - Specializing in layout DC->DCC conversions Modeling C&O transition era and steel industries There's Nothing Like Big Steam! Reply 1234 Subscriber & Member Login Login, or register today to interact in our online community, comment on articles, receive our newsletter, manage your account online and more! Login Register Users Online There are no community member online Search the Community ADVERTISEMENT ADVERTISEMENT ADVERTISEMENT Model Railroader Newsletter See all Sign up for our FREE e-newsletter and get model railroad news in your inbox! Sign up
Don - Specializing in layout DC->DCC conversions
Modeling C&O transition era and steel industries There's Nothing Like Big Steam!