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Are modellers be priced out the hobby?

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Posted by MAbruce on Wednesday, December 21, 2005 12:04 PM
QUOTE: Originally posted by andrechapelon
It's not the manufacturers who are to blame for whatever perceived wrongs are going on.


QUOTE: Mantua finally killed itself because it tried to make "collectors items" out of items where the basic tooling was in excess of 50 years old and bore (at best) only a vague resemblance to prototype. That's got to be one of the stupidest blunders in this hobby.


So you first tell us it's not the manufactures fault for what's been going on in the industry, and then you turn around and give us an example of how a manufacturer committed one of the stupidest blunders in history????

May I suggest you re-read your posts before you hit the “post reply” button next time?

QUOTE: Blaming the manufacturers may make you feel better, but you're shooting at the wrong target with an obsolete weapon while wearing blinders in a dense fog.

Andre


After reading your post(s), I wonder who's really in the dense fog wearing blinders firing away with a musket at an airplane?
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Posted by andrechapelon on Wednesday, December 21, 2005 11:49 AM
QUOTE: Originally posted by CNJ831

QUOTE: Originally posted by andrechapelon

As for those who have quit buying current production, that's their privilege, but they need some lessons in elementary manufacturing economics and a good overview of just how small the model railroad market is compared to the market for cell phones, computers, cars, etc.



Andre, it will be the manufacturers who need the lessons in economics in just a few years when they see their customer base dwindle to almost nil because the average hobbyists will be unable to afford their products. It happened with brass, falling from about 35% of the market share in the 1960's to probably less than 3% today (and resulting in the some brass importers transfering much of their energy into high-end plastic models to survive). You can most definitely price yourself right out of a market and that's just what will happen as more and more of the Boomers retire and drop out of the hobby because of high prices.

CNJ831





Yeah, and this was due to rising wage levels in Japan and later Korea. What do you expect? No importer has any control over wage levels in the supplying country. Imported brass RTR was unnaturally cheap compared to domestic products in part because brass construction doesn't require a large investment in tooling and because wage levels in Japan were very low compared to the U.S. (a situation which changed rapidly in the 70's). That's when brass production was transferred to Korea. Now Korean brass is priced high because Korean wage levels have also risen. With the disappearance of cheap brass, there's an economic opportunity to produce highly detailied plastic equipment which is perhaps more expensive perhaps than the lumps of plastic or cast metal from the "good old days", but is still cheaper than high end brass where the production runs are a 10th the size of what they used to be. The brass that's being manufactured now is for collectors, not for people who actually run their equipment.

Cheap Japanese and later Korean brass was what hampered the US model railroad industry for years. And the history of the manufacturers is vastly different from those of Europe. Brass never really caught on in Europe due to low wage levels (it may have been cheap on a relative basis in the US, but was very expensive for a European hobbyist). I realize that European wages have pretty much caught up with the US, but in the early post-war period hand-made brass was expensive relative the the wage levels of the time. This provided the European manufacturers time to improve their lines. The kind of smooth running and detailed stuff we're only now getting from Spectrum, P2K, Atlas and Athearn Genesis has been available in Europe for nearly 30 years and with domestic production. I have a couple of Roco European locomotives I picked up on a European trip in the early 80's. The detail is comparable with the best of brass from that era. Better, actually, and the running qualities are superb. They were also cheap in dollar terms, thanks to favorable exchange rates at the time.

I am not saying that a given manufacturer might not go bankrupt (e.g. Roco, Rivarossi). European prices are pretty high even when you discount the unfavorable exchange rate of the dollar vs. the euro. However, where is it the manufacturer's fault? The only way they can hold prices in line is to ship production to China (as Bachmann did with Liliput after the buyout and as Hornby is doing with Rivarossi). There's a lot more resistance in Europe than in the U.S. to buying overseas manufactured goods (the blind worship of low price as the alpha and omega of existence hasn't caught on there, at least not to the same extent as here). In any case, China's wage advantage is not going to last that long. Japan's didn't. Korea's didn't. What's next, Bangladesh?

Model railroad manufacturers are subject to the same economic forces as everyone else. However, their situation is exacerbated by the fact that the model railroad market is highly segmented (by scale, era, prototype) and the products are highly differentiated. Furthermore, the model railroad market is very small compared to other industries. There is no possiblity of enjoying any kind of returns to scale. The market will just never be that big. Even if it quadrupled in size tomorrow, it'd still be a miniscule market. Compared to the model railroad market, the craft market is gigantic and it still would be gigantic in comparison even if the model railroad market grew by 4 times overnight.

It's not the manufacturers who are to blame for whatever perceived wrongs are going on. You either find a way to adapt to new conditions or shut up shop. Mantua finally killed itself because it tried to make "collectors items" out of items where the basic tooling was in excess of 50 years old and bore (at best) only a vague resemblance to prototype. That's got to be one of the stupidest blunders in this hobby. Instead of following (at least) or leading (better yet) the trend toward highly detailed and smooth running plastic a la Spectrum, P2K, etc., they tried to rest on their rather tattered laurels. Yeah, the new stuff would have been more expensive, but at least there would have been a market for it.

Model railroad manufacturers have no more control over the the general economy than your local oil dealer has over the well head price of crude. Blaming the manufacturers may make you feel better, but you're shooting at the wrong target with an obsolete weapon while wearing blinders in a dense fog.

Andre



It's really kind of hard to support your local hobby shop when the nearest hobby shop that's worth the name is a 150 mile roundtrip.
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Posted by GoodoleBob on Wednesday, December 21, 2005 11:01 AM
I'm so new here my paint still smells. But I've played with my trains for near 45 years. I am not rich and work for a living as part of the down troddened middle class. The cost has never been a problem. I allocate some hobby money, and I also save for things that are more pricey. Be patient and most purchses can become a reality in a short time.

The real problem that has always plagued me has been availability. Not all the beginner stuff necessarily, but the serious supplies that the avid modeler sees advertised, but can't ever seem to get the actual items in his hands. Back orders that don't get filled, out of stock issues that because of limited interest never seem to get resolved, and small cottage businesses making just a few items at a time have a way of jamming up a project. Again I'm not referring to the everyday stuff like we see piled up at train shows. Try a brass steam detailing project out for size, and see how long it takes you to amass all the parts. I'd pay double to get them if I only could.

Have to agree the newbies to the hobby will find it pricey to collect enough to get going

Now you have another opinion that's only worth two cent.

Bob
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Posted by Anonymous on Wednesday, December 21, 2005 10:31 AM
No, I just find things I can afford. If I can't afford it, I scratchbuild it.
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Posted by BRAKIE on Wednesday, December 21, 2005 8:49 AM
Its not the evil of RTR..Todays modelers demand perfection from simply opening the box..Well guess what..That cost money for the manufacturers to do.RTR evil? Nope perfection from the box is the cost factor.

Again,for you that whine about the high prices stop paying FULL MSRP and start buying from on line shops that makes these perfect models we want affordable.

Larry

Conductor.

Summerset Ry.


"Stay Alert, Don't get hurt  Safety First!"

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Posted by whitman500 on Wednesday, December 21, 2005 8:38 AM
I think the problem is not so much that hobby companies are gouging customers or making huge profits but rather that people's expectations about what their layout should look like has increased in recent years. With sound, DCC, photo realistic backdrops, etc., you can really make a top quality layout that looks like the real thing. Certainly that is the case with the layouts that are featured in MR. However, these layouts cost real money: tens of thousands of dollars. In the past, a rich man's layout probably didn't look a lot better than a poor man's but that gap has really widened, and I think that discourages newbies who see the layouts in the magazine and get excited and then realize to their dismay the vast financial resources that are required to meet their expectations.

Separately, a number of people have mentioned how the startup costs for the hobby are daunting and this drives people away. One factor that may be contributing to this is the cost of tools. You see fewer and fewer people with home workshops these days and so while in the past a new hobbyist probably had a power drill, a couple of power saws, a soldering iron, etc., today many do not. I came into the hobby a year ago with nothing and had to spend probably $500-600 just to get equipped with the tools I needed to build benchwork.
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Posted by CNJ831 on Tuesday, December 20, 2005 9:20 PM
QUOTE: Originally posted by andrechapelon

As for those who have quit buying current production, that's their privilege, but they need some lessons in elementary manufacturing economics and a good overview of just how small the model railroad market is compared to the market for cell phones, computers, cars, etc.



Andre, it will be the manufacturers who need the lessons in economics in just a few years when they see their customer base dwindle to almost nil because the average hobbyists will be unable to afford their products. It happened with brass, falling from about 35% of the market share in the 1960's to probably less than 3% today (and resulting in the some brass importers transfering much of their energy into high-end plastic models to survive). You can most definitely price yourself right out of a market and that's just what will happen as more and more of the Boomers retire and drop out of the hobby because of high prices.

CNJ831







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Posted by andrechapelon on Tuesday, December 20, 2005 4:57 PM
QUOTE: Originally posted by CNJ831

QUOTE: Originally posted by edkowal

With all of the weeping and gnashing of teeth about modellers being priced out of the hobby, I think it might be relevant to ask the following:

How many here in this discussion thread actually know of someone who has been priced OUT of the hobby? And by that I mean just that, someone who gave up and no longer participates in any way, as a result of prices being too high. I am assuming that everyone that has posted a response here is still an active model railroader.


Yes, as an older hobbyist I can point to several colleagues of my generation who have totally withdrawn from the purchasing aspect of the hobby where new motive power and rolling stock are concerned...simply because of price considerations. I know that is not quite the same as leaving the hobby altogether but in an economic sense, they certainly have. I would not consider any of them "poor", yet they all express that over their long stints in the hobby they have never seen prices increase the way they have over the past decade and can not afford any new items. These guys are making do with their older Athearn or similar engines and cars and have no plans to make further purchases in the future.

Likewise, I've been in the LHS twice now when individuals have come in asking about starting in the hobby and wanting to know the price of the materials necessary to construct a simple 4x8 project layout the like ones appearing in MR. After the store owner pointed out the need to purchase items of at least modest quality so that the newcomer won't be disappointed and gives a price, they left the store without comment!

CNJ831


I wish people were more economically literate. Those wonderful RTR cars and locomotives require a capital investment by the manufacturer that HAS to be recovered. You can't sell something for less than it costs to build and make up the difference on volume. If all the tooling for (as an example) the BLI ATSF Northern costs $500,000, that cost has to be allocated to each piece produced. If there's a 5,000 piece run of the locos, $100 of the selling price that represents tooling costs (assuming no more are produced). And this is before all the other costs (marketing, distribution, cost of raw materials) are added in.

Tooling prices on a relative basis have actually come down over the years, thanks to CAD and CAM. Otherwise, we wouldn't have the variety of highly detailed plastic equipment we do now. When Gordon Varney was doing his thing, all that tooling was done by a tool and die maker by hand.

This hobby, for all the moaning about high prices, is not price sensitive in the same fashion as wheat or other commodities. Halving the price of the stuff we buy is not going to induce a mass influx of new hobbyists. At best it might induce someone already in the hobby to buy two of an item that he/she might only buy one of. But it's not going to bring scads of new people to the hobby. People in this hobby are in it because they like trains and models of same. The dilettante who comes into an LHS and asks desultory questions about what's involved and how much it costs is going to walk out of the hobby shop because: 1. That person has no real interest in the trains per se. 2. That person is not willing to put in the required work to learn and 3. Even at half price, the hobby's not cheap.

Where are the screaming hordes banging on Bowser's door to buy locomotive kits now that they have lowered prices (albeit temporarily)? Most of Bowser's steam locomotive kits are Pennsy prototype. While I'm happy that SPF's (Slobbering Pennsy Freaks) are getting a break, there's no inducement for me to rush out and buy a Bowser kit or two or three. About the only locomotive of theirs that I will consider buying is the USRA Light Pacific, and it's not high on my list of priorities. IOW, if I decide I really want one down the line, I'll pay the going price. OTOH, if they want to pay me to take some of those Pennsy locos off their hands, I might consider it.

As for those who have quit buying current production, that's their privilege, but they need some lessons in elementary manufacturing economics and a good overview of just how small the model railroad market is compared to the market for cell phones, computers, cars, etc.

I'm an older hobbyist, too. I've been retired for over 4 years. My income is not what it used to be. What that means is that I have to be judicious in what I buy rather than getting everything that strikes my fancy. If I can't afford it now, I'll use an old low tech technique for acquiring what I want. It's called saving. There's some really wild stuff going on out there. Banks will actually pay you for the privilege of storing your money for you. There are companies that will pay you for owning their stock. AND, if you pay you credit card bill off in full every month, you don't pay outlandish interest.

Andre






It's really kind of hard to support your local hobby shop when the nearest hobby shop that's worth the name is a 150 mile roundtrip.
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Posted by vsmith on Tuesday, December 20, 2005 10:07 AM
QUOTE: Originally posted by rolleiman

QUOTE: Originally posted by vsmith

Ever seen a $500+ R/C plane take off on its maiden flight, get airborne, roll over and auger straight into the pavement completely disintegrating in a cloud of powered balsa wood?

You'll never say this hobby is to expensive after looking at other hobbies.


Nope.. But I've seen a $500+ RC boat catch something in the prop and pull itself to the murky bottom of the lake... I really felt bad for the owner.. I'll bet that there's someone here who forgot to put his liftout bridge back in and ran his $500 brass loco off of the table and on to the floor.. It wasn't me though, Mine was a $30 Athearn GP35. It happens in all hobbies.

Jeff



The wisest words regarding a hobby I ever heard was from the same guy who crashed the above plane...

As he surveyed the smoking remains of his plane he laughingly said "... Oh well, If you can't afford to wreck'em, don't bother fly'n'em (don't get into the hobby) ...!"[;)]

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Posted by vsmith on Tuesday, December 20, 2005 10:01 AM
QUOTE: Originally posted by CNJ831

QUOTE: Originally posted by edkowal

With all of the weeping and gnashing of teeth about modellers being priced out of the hobby, I think it might be relevant to ask the following:

How many here in this discussion thread actually know of someone who has been priced OUT of the hobby? And by that I mean just that, someone who gave up and no longer participates in any way, as a result of prices being too high. I am assuming that everyone that has posted a response here is still an active model railroader.


Yes, as an older hobbyist I can point to several colleagues of my generation who have totally withdrawn from the purchasing aspect of the hobby where new motive power and rolling stock are concerned...simply because of price considerations. I know that is not quite the same as leaving the hobby altogether but in an economic sense, they certainly have. I would not consider any of them "poor", yet they all express that over their long stints in the hobby they have never seen prices increase the way they have over the past decade and can not afford any new items. These guys are making do with their older Athearn or similar engines and cars and have no plans to make further purchases in the future.

Likewise, I've been in the LHS twice now when individuals have come in asking about starting in the hobby and wanting to know the price of the materials necessary to construct a simple 4x8 project layout the like ones appearing in MR. After the store owner pointed out the need to purchase items of at least modest quality so that the newcomer won't be disappointed and gives a price, they left the store without comment!

CNJ831

Ah, but did that owner point out that model RRing takes time to build a good layout and that that eye popping pricetag can be spread out to a much more reasonable cost each month over the course of a year? or was the owner just trying to make a big sale? More likely, was the customer just looking for an open-the-box-and-plug-in layout?[;)]

Instant gratification devalues the worth of everything because no one has any investment in its actual creation.

I want it NOW daddy I want it NOWWWWW![V]

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Posted by cmrproducts on Tuesday, December 20, 2005 9:58 AM
If you want to be in the hobby (any hobby) you will find a way.

From the sounds of things it seems like every one figures if we complain enough the prices will come down! They won’t until enough modelers quit buying the expensive stuff.

All hobbies require a lot of ca***o be involved in them if you are serious. (Try building a show car, once!) If you are not serious then you will spend a lot of money and soon lose interest as it will just be a passing fad.

I have seen this with many new members of our club. They jump right in (building their own home layout) but soon lose interest as the layout is not being built fast enough, or they get the layout done and wonder what else there is to do. They soon are off onto something else (R/C, fishing, boating, 4-wheelers, etc.) and again this only lasts a short while!

They do not want to spend the time to learn the skills of modeling as it takes too much time. But THIS is the fun of modeling the time involvement!

What gets me is the DCC thing and how few want to learn the basics of decoder installs. Why? Too much time to learn the basics of what makes an engine operate. Once the basics are learned then installing a decoder in no big deal. I have given several clinics on decoder installs and those in attendance are amazed as to the simplicity of the project.

It all boils down to, if you want to learn how to do something you can. But the trade off is time. If you don’t want to put in the time, then throw money at it and anything can be accomplished.

So don’t say it costs too much only because you want the RTR stuff and not put the time into a project to learn it.

Just my 2 cents

BOB H – Clarion, PA
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Posted by joeyegarner on Tuesday, December 20, 2005 9:18 AM
QUOTE: Originally posted by Student of Big Sky Blue

I don't think modelers are being priced out of the hobby. But they are definatly being "Ready to Runed" out of the hobby.

Current Walthers Catalong. Almost Every Locomotive, half the freight cars and 1/3 the building kits were Simply open the box and set on the layout. Next thing you know pre made Model Rairlaod Modules where all you have to do is bolt them together will be sold will become main stream. By then we will have to stop calling it model rairlaoding and start calling it miniature railroading because no one will be left who actually knows how to build a model.

James.

I agree, this has been mentioned here before and what bothers me most is a lot of the models today are RTR, I started at this over 30 years ago and most things had at least some assembly required. Now days you can buy it and set it on your layout. And what modeling skills does that take? I have no desire to buy RTR kitts because it takes the modeling out of model railroading. Like James said it then becomes miniature railroading.
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Posted by CNJ831 on Tuesday, December 20, 2005 8:38 AM
QUOTE: Originally posted by edkowal

With all of the weeping and gnashing of teeth about modellers being priced out of the hobby, I think it might be relevant to ask the following:

How many here in this discussion thread actually know of someone who has been priced OUT of the hobby? And by that I mean just that, someone who gave up and no longer participates in any way, as a result of prices being too high. I am assuming that everyone that has posted a response here is still an active model railroader.


Yes, as an older hobbyist I can point to several colleagues of my generation who have totally withdrawn from the purchasing aspect of the hobby where new motive power and rolling stock are concerned...simply because of price considerations. I know that is not quite the same as leaving the hobby altogether but in an economic sense, they certainly have. I would not consider any of them "poor", yet they all express that over their long stints in the hobby they have never seen prices increase the way they have over the past decade and can not afford any new items. These guys are making do with their older Athearn or similar engines and cars and have no plans to make further purchases in the future.

Likewise, I've been in the LHS twice now when individuals have come in asking about starting in the hobby and wanting to know the price of the materials necessary to construct a simple 4x8 project layout the like ones appearing in MR. After the store owner pointed out the need to purchase items of at least modest quality so that the newcomer won't be disappointed and gives a price, they left the store without comment!

CNJ831
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Posted by edkowal on Monday, December 19, 2005 11:20 PM
With all of the weeping and gnashing of teeth about modellers being priced out of the hobby, I think it might be relevant to ask the following:

How many here in this discussion thread actually know of someone who has been priced OUT of the hobby? And by that I mean just that, someone who gave up and no longer participates in any way, as a result of prices being too high. I am assuming that everyone that has posted a response here is still an active model railroader.

Sure, there are many who can't buy everything that they would like to, but that's always been true. Nobody that I know has an unlimited discretionary income fund. We all save up until we can afford a particularly choice item, we have to make prioritized lists, and above all, we have to be realistic in our expectations. None of those facts have changed in forty years. I doubt it was any different before that.

-Ed

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Posted by rolleiman on Monday, December 19, 2005 7:39 PM
QUOTE: Originally posted by vsmith

Ever seen a $500+ R/C plane take off on its maiden flight, get airborne, roll over and auger straight into the pavement completely disintegrating in a cloud of powered balsa wood?

You'll never say this hobby is to expensive after looking at other hobbies.


Nope.. But I've seen a $500+ RC boat catch something in the prop and pull itself to the murky bottom of the lake... I really felt bad for the owner.. I'll bet that there's someone here who forgot to put his liftout bridge back in and ran his $500 brass loco off of the table and on to the floor.. It wasn't me though, Mine was a $30 Athearn GP35. It happens in all hobbies.

Jeff
Modeling the Wabash from Detroit to Montpelier Jeff
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Posted by Anonymous on Monday, December 19, 2005 7:17 PM
I have tried to stay out of this debate. But anyways here goes nothing:

Child hood Trainset, perhaps a few cars with horn and hook couplers. Forget operation and anything fancy. Just a loop of track and a constant itch and desire to run "Dad" trains which were never run unsupervised.

Teenage years. Girls, Video games and crushing loads of school work demanded by teachers with a few dollars now and again to spend on something. Athearn rolling stock at 2.00 each was a god send and so was Kaydee Couplers.

Early adult with a job and perhaps a few dollars. So busy with work did not have time to spend money on hobby. Housing, utilities and other responsibilites (Vehicle, gas and insurance etc) ate up the rest.

fast forward 30 years.

Finally settled down with a home and a wife. I STILL dont have much to spend on the hobby BUT... what I DO spend is on stuff that is really well done. Non-Performing engines are sold on ebay. Surviving engines are very well taken care of and expected to last 10 years or more.

I am happy. But instead of buying a fist ful of rolling stock, pocket ful of detail parts and structure kits years ago, I make one trip a month to the LHS that is usually planned months in advance. I usually purchase a new engine once or twice a year usually when today's production runs are sold out before the product sees the LHS.

But talk to today's children who drool over very powerful computers and broadband connections, cell phones, high performance cars and all kinds of goodies before they get out of high school... it's a wonder the hobby is still around.

There will always be people who enjoy playing trains (Operating etc) as long humans are around to make a dollar for a day's work and able to spend some of it at the store.
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Posted by vsmith on Monday, December 19, 2005 6:56 PM
QUOTE: Originally posted by FundyNorthern

About a zillion years ago as a teenage model railroaders, I made do with what I could afford, which wasn't very much. My parents didn't have much money, so I had to get what I wanted on my own. Weekly allowance, birthday money, and I had a newspaper route. I made many of my structures from cardboard and balsa wood, not being able to afford kits of the day. I'd haunt local department stores for bargains, broken models that I would repair and use. I started with an 027 layout with used Louis Marx equipment that I traded from a friend. Later on I sold off my 027 stuff and switched to HO scale, again all on a budget. My layout table was an old kitchen table onto which I'd added a piece of plywood.

So I was able to accomplish a decent amount without a great outlay of money.

Just because many of the new models are coming out with DCC and sound, there's nothing that says you need to have the latest and more expensive equipment. Used models are a great way to get started and to have a decent hobby.

Bob Boudreau


Bob I think you hit the nail on the head.

The hobby is only as expensive as you make it, there are cheap ways to do great things, afterall how many locomotives do you really need, John Allen only started with 3 lokies if I remember right, a Varney Casey Jones 4-6-0, a Varney 0-6-0 and I believe a dismal of some sort and he started with a 4x6 [:0] layout and John Allen was a man of Modest income!

He scratchbuilt every structure from balsa and scrap wood, he built cars from scratch or kits, and built his scenery from paper mache, plaster of paris , in general he took cr*p and made gold out of it. I always thought his biggest allie was Patience. He was willing to work slowly and build up his experience and knowledge from what he had started with as time and money allowed, and I dont beleive that when he started he was any more or less talented than most modelers here, its just he gave himself the time to evolve and learn.

SO if you only have room for a 4 x 6 like Allen, cheap ways to build it are work to a plan, buy track as you can afford it (buy good track and stick with it), keep the control system simple ( If you can afford entry level DCC like bachmanns system go for it, but I still use DC and Atlas controllers, cheap and they do work) once your track layout is complete and operational, scenery can easily be done with scrap cardboard support, paper towels dipped in starch or a thinned plaster solution, then add sculptamold detailing (or wet newspaper ground into a pulp and mixed with starch or thinned plaster, same thing) aluminum foil makes great rock molds, trees can be twigs and ground up foam, or even from any source that fits the bill, dont be affraid to be creative. Buildings can be build from balsa or cardstock even.

Search train shows and swap meets for cars, buy only as many as you can effectily use, for engines buy new....and get the warrenty, but like John Allem maybe you only need 2 or 3 (OK maybe 4) really good engines and there is a great selection of stuff out there today, I remember when my LHS only had 2 choices Blue Box or Tyco, hard choice eh? $60 today is like $20 in 1980, and there are good choices for low priced lokies out there. $20 doesnt even fill my gas tank so no whinning about "I cant buy an engine for $20 so I'm dumping the hobby" ...ever hear of putting your spare money in a jar over a few months? [;)]

To me its really up to the enterprise of the modeler, if you have deep pockets then you can afford to by everything from the lokies, to the buildings to the entire layout as RTR out of the box but somehow I really doubt if they will have the same satifaction that comes with investing the time actually building your own layout. It just seams to me too many people are unwilling to invest the effort, to much emphisis on the Faruka Salt Syndrome "I want it now daddy I want it NOW" that drives the demand for RTR and prebuilt stuff and given that demand drives the market and is why kits are going away.[:(]

Its not THAT hard to do it on the cheap, John Allen did it, so can you.[:D]

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Posted by Anonymous on Monday, December 19, 2005 5:37 PM
About a zillion years ago as a teenage model railroaders, I made do with what I could afford, which wasn't very much. My parents didn't have much money, so I had to get what I wanted on my own. Weekly allowance, birthday money, and I had a newspaper route. I made many of my structures from cardboard and balsa wood, not being able to afford kits of the day. I'd haunt local department stores for bargains, broken models that I would repair and use. I started with an 027 layout with used Louis Marx equipment that I traded from a friend. Later on I sold off my 027 stuff and switched to HO scale, again all on a budget. My layout table was an old kitchen table onto which I'd added a piece of plywood.

So I was able to accomplish a decent amount without a great outlay of money.

Just because many of the new models are coming out with DCC and sound, there's nothing that says you need to have the latest and more expensive equipment. Used models are a great way to get started and to have a decent hobby.

Bob Boudreau
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Posted by fwright on Monday, December 19, 2005 5:00 PM
Daniel

I sympathize. But, we all have to start somewhere. I have helped my son scavenge lumber from pallets that were no longer needed by a business. Enough dimensional lumber in a couple of them to frame an open grid 4x6 layout or sectional shelf layout to get started with.

As Jeff said, also ask at construction sites - may be able to scavenge some plywood (and maybe even some foam) there.

As for tools, start with paint brushes, needle nose pliers, tweezers, and an NMRA gauge. Look to garge sales for some cheap rolling stock and track.

Have fun and good luck!
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Posted by andrechapelon on Monday, December 19, 2005 4:54 PM
QUOTE: Originally posted by CNJ831

QUOTE: Originally posted by andrechapelon
No they're not. Not any more than they were buying $30 locomotive kits from Mantua in the late 50's (roughly $200+ in today's dollars). Fer cryin' out loud, get some perspective. The model railroad hobby has NEVER been cheap and it never will be because it's a niche hobby (and a micro sized business) and does not lend itself to economies of scale when it comes to manufacturing.

DJH made some US prototype locos (USRA light 2-8-2 and 4-6-2, NYC J1e 4-6-4 and a Santa Fe 2-8-2) in the late 80's and finally gave up on them because they weren't selling. It's not that they weren't good kits, it's that apparently everyone wanted RTR plastic engines with brass quality at Wal-Mart prices. It ain't gonna happen.

Why is it that so many people people seem to want to have a fleet of locos and rolling stock rivalling the UP and they want it NOW. And all that stuff better be cheap, too, because if it isn't, there's going to be another whine at trains.com about greedy manufacturers and suppliers pricing everyone out of the market.

As I've stated before, a Varney Super Pacific sold for $57.50 in 1950, the same year my dad was making $175.00/month.

Things are better now.


Andre - you need to study your model railroading history a little more closely! First off, those expensive Varney Super Pacifics, Mantua Craftsmen Series, Iken locomotives and their ilk, were exactly what keep the hobby from growing back in the 1930's and 40's. Once inexpensive (plastic, diecast and reliable) equipment became available in the early 1950's, model railroading exploded! From the 1960's until the 1980's the hobby was cheap and prices rose only very slowly for fully 25-30 years. It was not until the 1990's that we saw typical prices of better quality model railroad equipment start to take off. Over the past decade this has grown to the level of being outrageous.

Incidentally, I remember the DJH models very well and they failed in the U.S.A. because, while they were very complex, difficult, kits whose prices approached low end brass! They never had any chance for success here.

The hobby today is composed of about 1/2 to 2/3 guys who remember the prices of the 70's, 80's and early 1990's and are stunned seeing where the hobby is going. I find it interesting that some here love to invoke CPI increases to justify current prices, but don't appreciate that they really can't be applied to hobby items bought with discretionary funds. The CPI certainly never guided the market pricing in the past. Likewise, some folks seem to see what would be normally be viewed as product evolution (better detail, controls, etc.) as some amazing development fully justify dramatic price increases. Did TV's skyrocket in price over the past 50 years? They evolved enormously. Did washing machines or computers? Everyone needs to pause a moment and actually look around to see how prices in other hobbies have evolved. You'll find few examples of runaway pricing, except in those hobbies that are currently shrinking dramatically.

CNJ831



There are several things wrong with your analysis. First of all, it wasn't low prices of ready to run in the 50's that powered the hobby, it was the rapid growth of disposable income (partly as a result of the fact that the U.S. was the only one in the game for quite a while after WWII). I was there in the 1950's. There just wasn't that much ready to run and what there was wasn't that good. My first locomotive was a Mantua Little Six and my first car was a Silver Streak Caboose.

Washing machines and other appliances certainly haven't risen in price in part because they're types of products that can take advantage of returns to scale. IOW, the more you make (up to a point), the less each additional unit costs to produce. Model Railroading is not a mass hobby. It never has and never will be.

As for computers, the reason they've come done so much in price are the returns to scale available with a combination of falling prices due ti shrinking geometries (Moore's Law) which allow more devices which allows more people to afford computers.

If you compare the price of a BLI sound equipped steam locomotive with, say a similar brass locomotive of the early 60's and adjust for inflation, you'll find it's pretty much a wash pricewise.

And I'm sorry, but paying roughly $50 (adjusted roughly back to 1963 price levels) for a BLI ATSF 3751 with all that detail is much better than the deal 40+ years ago where you paid about $30 for a Mantua Mike and then another $30-40 for parts to detail it. There's no real price difference.

Andre
It's really kind of hard to support your local hobby shop when the nearest hobby shop that's worth the name is a 150 mile roundtrip.
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Posted by vsmith on Monday, December 19, 2005 4:25 PM
Ever seen a $500+ R/C plane take off on its maiden flight, get airborne, roll over and auger straight into the pavement completely disintegrating in a cloud of powered balsa wood?

You'll never say this hobby is to expensive after looking at other hobbies.

   Have fun with your trains

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Posted by CNJ831 on Monday, December 19, 2005 4:22 PM
QUOTE: Originally posted by andrechapelon
No they're not. Not any more than they were buying $30 locomotive kits from Mantua in the late 50's (roughly $200+ in today's dollars). Fer cryin' out loud, get some perspective. The model railroad hobby has NEVER been cheap and it never will be because it's a niche hobby (and a micro sized business) and does not lend itself to economies of scale when it comes to manufacturing.

DJH made some US prototype locos (USRA light 2-8-2 and 4-6-2, NYC J1e 4-6-4 and a Santa Fe 2-8-2) in the late 80's and finally gave up on them because they weren't selling. It's not that they weren't good kits, it's that apparently everyone wanted RTR plastic engines with brass quality at Wal-Mart prices. It ain't gonna happen.

Why is it that so many people people seem to want to have a fleet of locos and rolling stock rivalling the UP and they want it NOW. And all that stuff better be cheap, too, because if it isn't, there's going to be another whine at trains.com about greedy manufacturers and suppliers pricing everyone out of the market.

As I've stated before, a Varney Super Pacific sold for $57.50 in 1950, the same year my dad was making $175.00/month.

Things are better now.


Andre - you need to study your model railroading history a little more closely! First off, those expensive Varney Super Pacifics, Mantua Craftsmen Series, Iken locomotives and their ilk, were exactly what keep the hobby from growing back in the 1930's and 40's. Once inexpensive (plastic, diecast and reliable) equipment became available in the early 1950's, model railroading exploded! From the 1960's until the 1980's the hobby was cheap and prices rose only very slowly for fully 25-30 years. It was not until the 1990's that we saw typical prices of better quality model railroad equipment start to take off. Over the past decade this has grown to the level of being outrageous.

Incidentally, I remember the DJH models very well and they failed in the U.S.A. because, while they were very complex, difficult, kits whose prices approached low end brass! They never had any chance for success here.

The hobby today is composed of about 1/2 to 2/3 guys who remember the prices of the 70's, 80's and early 1990's and are stunned seeing where the hobby is going. I find it interesting that some here love to invoke CPI increases to justify current prices, but don't appreciate that they really can't be applied to hobby items bought with discretionary funds. The CPI certainly never guided the market pricing in the past. Likewise, some folks seem to see what would be normally be viewed as product evolution (better detail, controls, etc.) as some amazing development fully justify dramatic price increases. Did TV's skyrocket in price over the past 50 years? They evolved enormously. Did washing machines or computers? Everyone needs to pause a moment and actually look around to see how prices in other hobbies have evolved. You'll find few examples of runaway pricing, except in those hobbies that are currently shrinking dramatically.

CNJ831
  • Member since
    August 2005
  • From: Michigan
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Posted by rolleiman on Monday, December 19, 2005 4:19 PM
QUOTE: Originally posted by mitrainman

trying to start a layout in garage
to young(14) to get a job, to old for finacial support from family
dont want to blow life savings on benchwork
no transportation to swap meets or places to buy used items. Ask for 2x4s for Xmas?
To scratch build you first need to buy paint, tools, glue and other equipment
waiting to be able to get a job

Daniel


Daniel, Have you ever considered junk picking?? I know that may sound like a joke but you might be suprised at the quantity and even sometimes quality of building materials that people throw away.. Home construction sites are another source sometimes.. I don't mean to walk in and steal the stuff, I mean to ask the job forman if you can have the scraps.. Which are very often, very usable for some sections of benchwork.. Get enterprising.. Your folks might find it impressive enough to throw some financial support your way. Then again, they may consider your wood collection junk and demand you get rid of it (I don't know your folks so I can't make that call [;)]..

Good luck,
Jefff
Modeling the Wabash from Detroit to Montpelier Jeff
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    September 2005
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Posted by mitrainman on Monday, December 19, 2005 4:02 PM
trying to start a layout in garage
to young(14) to get a job, to old for finacial support from family
dont want to blow life savings on benchwork
no transportation to swap meets or places to buy used items. Ask for 2x4s for Xmas?
To scratch build you first need to buy paint, tools, glue and other equipment
waiting to be able to get a job

Daniel
  • Member since
    August 2005
  • From: Michigan
  • 1,550 posts
Posted by rolleiman on Monday, December 19, 2005 3:49 PM
QUOTE: Originally posted by alco_fan

QUOTE: Originally posted by RMax1
Are kids buying $250 locos in any kind of quantity?


Maybe not, but why would they have to? On-line retailers are taking reservations for the Atlas Trainman GP-38-2s at 55 bucks. Other decent standard Atlas locos on-line now are $65-80. Again, that's without shopping at all ... there are many better deals out there.

Just for perspective, inflation-adjusting those prices back to 1980:
Atals Trainman at $55 in 1980 would be $21.66


Which is the price I paid for an Athearn F unit in 1983, retail, at the LHS, tax included.. And by the way, they still run fine.
Modeling the Wabash from Detroit to Montpelier Jeff
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Posted by selector on Monday, December 19, 2005 3:45 PM
Economics is pretty straighforward, both in the macro and micro scales. If there is a buck to be made, someone will earn it. This is no less true in the hobby industries. If companies like BLI make a dreadful mistake they will likely recover. If they make several in a row, their producst disappear. So far, so good. So, someone MUST be providing them a market. It that excludes a lot of people from BLI loco ownership, that's just the way it it...for all of us. We all can't have everything, or the US dollar would be worth exaclty one red cent. For some of us to earn $40K per year, a whole bunch of others have to earn $20K. The Government can't print money...believe it or not. So the wealth has to be dug out of the ground or grown. Our trains are the residuals after the mining, the smelting, the metal transportation, the milling, the distribution, and only then the retail, each level taking a rather large profit for their purposes. If we disagree with any of this, no one is holding our feet to the fire to make us spend our hard-earned dollars on, of all darned important things in life, toy trains.

if you want fancy highly detailed box cars for $6.00, make your own.
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Posted by fwright on Monday, December 19, 2005 3:44 PM
I'm an admirer of Iain Rice's track plans and writing. In both his two recent books, he writes about constraints on how large a layout a model railroader should bite off on. The constraint on layout size we think and talk about the most is time. The amount of hobby time available is a huge constraint on how big a layout one should plan or attempt to build. We all know of folks who are trying to do too much with the time they have available to them; we also know folks - the ones whose layouts get featured in MR - who seem to have to have no constraints on their time, or manage to accomplish much more with their time than I do.

The other constraint, much less talked about, on layout size is money. As many in this thread have pointed out, prices relative to inflation are not all that much different in the long term, and the quality for the price has gone up. There are specific periods - the '90s for example - where prices dropped relative to inflation, thus making the catch-up increases of the last five years seem inordinately high. But I digress.

Because of our dedication to the hobby, culturally-encouraged free-spending habits, and for many of us, decent incomes, we have mostly ignored the money constraint on our layout or collection size.

And while money can be traded for time to realize a larger layout, this means buying RTR and various other services. The reverse is also possible - you can use time as a substitute for money to a certain extent by scratchbuilding and kitbashing. The $ model series in MR used to encourage that.

Faced with a very limited income in the '70s, I was able to carve $10/month for model railroading. So I emphasized aspects of the hobby that had a high time to $$ spent ratio - my $$/hour would be low. I handlaid my track; I bought a couple of used locomotives from garage sales to start with; I built from low-to-medium end kits because building from kits decreased my $$/hour cost of fun. I kept my layout size small - never bigger than 4x8. Even then the initial cost of the benchwork was the biggest budget buster - just as it is today!

At present, my modeling budget is $50/month (includes books, magazines, and budget augmentation by eating fast food during business trips). But I have agreed with my wife on limitations. My total number of locomotives will not exceed 8 (3 narrow gauge, 5 standard). If I buy another locomotive, I have to sell one. To satisfy my need to watch trains run, at least one of each is RTR. With small layouts, I just don't need that many cars or structures.

Other ways to keep the cost of the hobby down are picking a specific era and location to model. I too drool over the latest stuff in the LHS, but keep reminding myself of 2 simple questions: would this piece fit in or on my layout with its theme and location? If the answer to the 1st is yes, then what will the piece replace, and do I like it better than the existing; or is there space to add it as an addition?

Except for the initial benchwork costs, I firmly believe the hobby can be enjoyed on a modest scale for $25 per month in today's world and $$. You may only have 1 or 2 used locomotives, you won't have DCC (I still don't have), and you may have to wait a month or two to buy a certain item you want - but you can have fun!

I can remember when my wife gave my AHM Heisler as a Christmas gift - that was the most expensive locomotive I owned - and still is.

The last portion of my rant is that nearly everyone forgets the small manufacturers that support our hobby with kits and supplies. Our LHS shelves and magazines prominently display the high-end plastic locomotives and passenger cars. The small guys who are usually MRs themselves still exist - it just takes some seeking to find them. But for $$/hour of modeling fun, it's hard to beat a Labelle or Ye Old Huff'n Puff or similar kit. True, the kits cost $20-$25 and you might need another $10 for trucks and couplers. But you are going to spend enough pleasurable hours assembling, painting, detailing, and weathering that the total cost is well under $8 per hour of entertainment. Beats the cost per hour of watching a movie by far after you add in gas and popcorn!

Now I've spent too much time on the forum - sorry guys and gals, it may be free but you just aren't as much fun as trying to build my Keystone Shay! Read or ignore, but in either case, I'm going to go have fun.

yours in training
Fred
jack of all trades....you know the rest
for
Picture Gorge and Western Railway - "None more picturesque!"
Tillamook Head and Bethel Railway - "To Heaven and back!"
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Posted by andrechapelon on Monday, December 19, 2005 3:35 PM
While we're on the subject, MR currently has a newstand price of $5.50. That's 11 times what I paid for my first issue of MR back in 1957.

'Course MR is a much better publication than it was nearly 50 years ago. Back then it was mostly text with some scattered B&W (that's black and white for you youngsters) photos. MR now is highly colorful and has become more of a graphics oriented rag.

I like it.

Even if they are charging me 11 times what I once paid.[;)]

Andre
It's really kind of hard to support your local hobby shop when the nearest hobby shop that's worth the name is a 150 mile roundtrip.
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Posted by RedGrey62 on Monday, December 19, 2005 3:05 PM
I don't think I'm being "priced" out of the hobby, but I am spending my money more judiciously. Each time I pick up MR, there is always something I want, whether its a new loco, rolling stock, scenery, electonics, etc. I now have to budget my money into a couple of categories; what limited production items will I want and items that are continuously run. Then I further look at the limited production stuff to see if I really "must" have it, I am finding now that I don't. I will be starting a new layout in the near future, benchwork, track, wiring, and a DCC system will be the focus at first. If something not in those catergories pops us, I will either do without, or negotiate with the family financial officer [:D].

I think Sheryl Crow sang it best, "It's not having what you want
It's wanting what you've got"

Rick
"...Mother Nature will always punish the incompetent and uninformed." Bill Barney from Thor's Legions
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Posted by andrechapelon on Monday, December 19, 2005 2:06 PM
QUOTE: Originally posted by BXCARMIKE

the concept of cheaper prices drawing younger people into the hobby's not going to work.you HAVE to like trains and models to be drawn into this hobby.if bli's and kato's sold like athearn bb's, more guys with money would buy more stuff. todays" gotta have instant gratification" now feelings are why train modeling is less attractive, fewer trains and more railtrails don't help either. how many young can afford an rc car or airplane or boat?you priced rockets lately? how about an x-box and the games that go with it? hobbys are NO more expensive now than forty years ago when i was 12.


That's what I like to see. Another old codger with a long memory. [:D]

You're right. Price isn't the problem. If you're already interested, you'll find a way. If not.....

It ain't green fees and the cost of clubs that keeps me from playing golf.

It's the fact that golf is about as interesting to me as listening to grass grow or watching paint dry.

Andre

It's really kind of hard to support your local hobby shop when the nearest hobby shop that's worth the name is a 150 mile roundtrip.

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