State of the hobby

[Anonymous]

I saw it mentioned elsewhere here that the hobby is shrinking....is that true? I am returning after a long hiatus (including a period of collecting HO slot cars, shame shame!)...please enlighten me....If the hobby is ill, why are there so many products? Why so many publications? (Walthers is thicker than ever!) What are the numbers of modelers, dollars spent etc etc...and beyond the numbers how do you feel about the health of this hobby?

[Anonymous]

I'm returning to the hobby myself and I can't answer your question, but I think this is related. It's only my theory and I guess we will see over time if it holds true.

The baby boomers! They're aging. What's going to happen with all those huge collections. They're going to hit the market. I don't mind buying pre-owned equipment, much of it never gets used and there will be quite a lot of great deals down the road.

[simon1966]

I am not sure that I have seen any hard numbers on the state of the hobby, so I am not sure that anyone can state with any assurance what the hobby is doing in terms of raw numbers.

What are the trends that appear to be on-going.

Bricks and Mortar Hobby Shops are closing. But then a whole slew of internet and e-bay retailers have sprung up.

While it is still possible to get into this hobby on a slim budget, the cost of the "new toys" is clearly getting higher. But then, so is the technology increasing. DCC, sound, R2R rolling stock, better detailed everything.

It also appears to me that there are companies with substantial resources willing to invest heavily in the hobby. Horizon Hobby has spent hundreds of thousands if not millions on acquiring Athearn and MDC Roundhouse in recent months. Other companies have entered the market and carved out substantial niches such as Broadway Limited. The DCC manufacturers seem to be thriving. These companies no doubt are basing these investment decisions on their own assesment of the market.

Are there fewer modelers today? Maybe. Are todays modellers spending more on the hobby? I bet we are! The hobby is evolving and to me seems to be quite vibrant and I suspect the total $ value of the market has gone up as we all try and buy into the new technologies.

[IRONROOSTER]

The fear is that not enough younger modelers are entering the hobby. As the current modelers die off they won't be replaced. Whether will happen or not is uncertain. The current state of the hobby appers to be pretty good. There are lots of products in the 6 main scales - Z, N, HO, S, O, and G.

I haven't seen any reliable numbers or surveys done recently, especially on the total number of hobbyists. Most of the evidence is anecdotal.
Enjoy
Paul

[ereimer]

when i go to model train shows i see a LOT of grey hair (mine included) . i guess this means that modellers are getting older , and that not many young people are being attracted to the hobby . then again us older folks tend to have more money to spend or we aren't spending it on nintendo or girls or fast cars so there seems to be enough dollars around to keep the hobby healthy

[CraigN]

Look at today's toy's that parents put in the hands of their children. Computers , video games, Tv's, CD Players, stuff like that. They occupy alot of time for kids and are ready to use. A train layout has to be built before it can be played with and with both parents working, who wants to make the time for it in between running to the school for the plays and sports and music concerts? It's a busy world out there, people always on the go, things to do, people to see.

Now for me, I like to come home, relax in front of my computer while eating a snack, maybe pick up my guitar and make some noise, maybe mow the lawn, or just head down to the basement and work on my layout. Sometimes , my college aged boys even decide to spend time with me doing whatever. Ah, life is good!

[Anonymous]

I've sorta stated this off and on for all the time I've been offering my opinion on this forum. The modeling is leaving model railroading. I have gotten back into R/C lately and the same thing is happening there. More ready to fly or almost ready to fly airplanes are available than kits. I don't think it's that people don't have the time to model anymore, they simply choose to use their available free time for other endeavors. However, if you like doing something, you will make time for it. I believe modeling (making models as opposed to buying ready made) will eventually die out as a hobby. If this means the hobby itself will die out, remains to be seen. It may simply be a shift in what the hobby is. However, with all the great stuff being offered, I think now is a great time to be in the hobby.

[Anonymous]

i agree about the aging baby boomers......but i also agree abput the increased doLLLR SPENT

[Anonymous]

oops my reply got mangled! Yes many of us are aging and yes we are spending probably more than ever..(yes after inflation!) I would say the hobby is good at least until we (the boomers) reach the average age of seventy or so....thats when most spending slows...anyhow i like stirring tthe pot, as it were. I dont understand the lamenting the cost of the hobby etc...it seems we are getting a better value for our dollar than ever.................and look at the choices we have!

[Anonymous]

As long as Thomas is on TV, the hobby is safe! And Bachmann has made entry level DCC a reality.

The real problem that we all face is that the top of the learning curve has accelerated out of sight. The likelihood of a single modeller building a really classy layout on his own has diminished, but, boy, does that set up great potential for modellers who have specialised skills and are happy to work with others...

[howmus]

QUOTE: Originally posted by ereimer

when i go to model train shows i see a LOT of grey hair (mine included) .

Very true, but then 25 years ago when I went to the Local open house for the local train club in the Southern Tier of NY, most of the hair was the same grey....... There seems to be a lot of interest in the young people that have seen my layout but most won't run out and start modeling (at least not right away). The last Division meet I went to had a wide mix of ages. I tend to think that the hobby will be around for a long time and will continue to change as it has in the last 25 years. In the mean time, ENJOY YOUR TRAINS!!!!

[CNJ831]

QUOTE: Originally posted by FiremanLA
Yes many of us are aging and yes we are spending probably more than ever..(yes after inflation!) I would say the hobby is good at least until we (the boomers) reach the average age of seventy or so....

Unfortunately, Fireman, it is almost hopeless to get an objective answer to your original question...variations of which are always kicking around this and other boards.

A great many posters, past and present, either seem to be Pollyannas or don't wi***o except the possibility that the hobby they love so much (and me too) might be in decline. For a long time many folks here and elsewhere unrealistically insisted the hobby was growing noticeably or was, at worst, at least static. This was always based strictly personal opinion, without any supporting facts. I'm almost surprised at the current posters' seeming honesty this time around.

There are no hard and fast figures as to what is happening in the hobby today. One can only infer the situation through various trends. A brief overview of some of these factors goes like this:

1. Extrapolation of MR's decades of reader surveys gives an average age for today's model rairoader as 55 years...drastically older (by 20 years) than was the case between 1950 and 1980.

2. Across the board, model railroading magazine circulation is down dramatically in the last 10 years. The two largest publishers have lost a total of 65,000 readers in the past decade. While some try to claim this is the result of more and more individuals using on-line sources instead of hard copy, it's been recently cited that the majority of hobbyist over 55-60 years of age aren't even computer literate, so that excuse is pretty much out the door.

3. About 3 years ago Kalmbach and a group of the leading manufacturers started the World's Greatest Hobby campaign, a million dollar effort to promote the hobby. After 60+ years of model railroading being very popular, the only explanation for this is a realization that their market is steadily going down the drain. So far, there is no indication the campaign is actually bringing in significant numbers of new hobbyists and the target audience is questionable.

4. The great majority of today's model railroaders came from the generation that played with Lionel/Flyer and grew up seeing real trains as an everyday aspect of life. Both of these situations have all but vanished from our world. Very few young people are in the hobby today, whereas in the 1950's 1 in 5 hobbyists was a teenager.

5. While limited production runs of locomotives, etc., can be attributed to modern business practices, they can also be taken as a reaction to a dramatically decreased demand. Whereas companies like Athearn formerly made runs in the tens of thousands of units, today we see only a few thousand items run at a time.

6. Most people are too busy in their lives today to step back and have any real hobbies. Most spend "spare" time doing work brought home from the office in a cut-throat effort to get ahead and have even less spare time. If as your screen name implies, you are a firefighter (I was too), we are among the last occupation that has any reasonable time off, unless you choose to hold a 2nd and 3rd job!

7. Finally, there is the matter of prices. While you'll see arguments to the contrary, model railroading was decidely more affordable to the average person in the past than it is today. Yes, products have improved dramatically but that is simply the expected advancement of technology. The relative price of comparable products has risen to an amazing degree over the past decade or so, outstripping price increases over the total of the previously 30 years. This is steadily driving older/retired hobbyists out of model railroading and keeping new individuals from starting in the hobby.

So, is the outlook for the hobby bleak? Well, no. Things aren't going seriously down hill just yet. But, and as you point out in your own post, as the older generation who make up the bulk of the current hobby, leave or die off, model railroading will see a striking downward spiral over the next 15 to 20 years.

CNJ831

[davekelly]

What if the overall numbers are decreasing but the involvement is increasing? The average age of folks entering the hobby is increasing not because of demograhpics, but perhaps by folks entering the age where they want something more from the hobby than instant gratification? While I have nothing to back this up - I can hope I'm right.

[johncolley]

...and the times, they are a'changing....

[Paul3]

CNJ831 wrote:

QUOTE: A great many posters, past and present, either seem to be Pollyannas or don't wi***o except the possibility that the hobby they love so much (and me too) might be in decline.

And then there are the great many posters both here and on the Atlas forum that are "doom-and-gloomers", the Chicken Little-types that insist that the hobby is dying and there's nothing that can be done, so we might as well just chuck it all and take up stamp collecting or something.

However, we both agree that there is no way to accurately measure what's going on with the hobby. The traditional methods of using magazine subscription numbers and page counts, NMRA memberships, and train show attendance are now flawed. The internet has seen to that.

Now, on the the numbers:
1). It's not that MR has found that the average age of model railroaders is 55, it's that the average MR reader is 55 years old. After all, if you don't get the magazine, how can you take the survey? It could simply be that younger model railroaders just aren't subscribing to MR, as they are getting their MR "fix" by using the internet. In fact, if someone were to start a poll here, I'd hazard a guess that it will not coincide with the MR survey WRT to ages.

2). Increasing internet use is a big problem with periodical publications. One can't deny this. The magazine used to be the only way to see what's new, to get a model review, to see the dealer offerings, to interact with others, etc. Now, everything the magazine can do can be done via internet, and the internet does it all better for less (except for portability). And frankly I don't understand your point about older model railroaders not being online. Where did this info come from? If it was an MR survey, then of course older MR subscribers would not tend to be online because they want the hardcopy just like they've always had it for decades.

3). The WGH campaign was started by Kalmbach to benefit all model railroad manufacturers (including themselves). They know that a bigger hobby is better for them, but they did it because their subs were decreasing. And why is that? Could it be...the internet? And while there's no evidence to say that the WGH is a roaring success, there's also no evidence to say that it's a dismal failure, either.

4). It's true that the 1940's/1950's "Lionel/American Flyer" owners are not going to be around forever, don't forget about the "Little Blue Money Machine" (aka, Thomas) making an impact on today's youth.

5). While one could interpret the "limited run" as a strike against the hobby, one could also consider it having the opposite effect. More and more different products that quickly sell out can only help, not hurt, the manfucturers and the hobbyist as a result. And when Athearn was cranking out tens of thousands of units per year, they were really the only game in town. Now is not the case.

6). People have as much spare time as they want, and they have to want to be a model railroader in order to make that time.

7). How much was a Stewart F-unit in the 1993 Walthers Catalog? It was $99. Today at Walthers.com, the same unit is $115. Where's the problem?

Paul A. Cutler III
*****************
Weather Or No Go New Haven
*****************

[Anonymous]

i dont buy the 'less affordable" argument at all....im going to do some consumer price index checking.....engine cost........here in Los angelest in the mid sixties adds for police and fire advertised starting at making 645 a month.....i wonder what an athearn engine cost.....( i wont tell you what we start at now, but unless the athearn engine is at least ten times costlier, the price hasgone down)) i say that we are getting more value for our money than ever..most of live better by far than our parents at the same age...how many of us struggle to buy ONE car? Im talking of Mid middle class folk now....how many own two or three vehicles? two or three TV's? But i digress......yes time is harder to budget than ever......witness the rise of prebuilt models....I think the best builders will still be the best.....but its much easier to have a 'pretty good" layout or scene because of ready made materials. Anyhow i wasnt totalllllly looking for definitive answers...just stirring the pot for discussion!

[slotracer]

Fireman, if you were active on any of the Slotcar related message boards and groups you probably saw the same kinds of threads going on there, I see these threads on occasion on model car kit related boards as well. Certainly no where in any of these hobbies that I have seen have ther been any comprehensive or accurate figures or demographics, trains seems to have teh most information but based on the arguements of others here it is not complete.
It seems all hobbbies are regarded as being in decline/having increasing average age etc. I still dabble with the slotcars (I have reduced the massive inventory of collector cars but still have a few dozen of my beloved thunderjets) but one of the reasons I decided to sell off the shelf queens was my concern that the baby boomers who drive tjet collecting will gradaully slow theri buying habits and the value of the collection would drop.....so I started selling them off now while the prices were still decent. I don't see slots attracting many new young people, just us boomers wanting to relive what once was and middle age car guys collecting nice fly cars they can run around once in a while....a "live" enhancement to die cast collections sort of.

It seems most any hobbies that require a time commitment and development of talent and skills is concerned about losing members and aging population. Folks choose to use time on the variety of choies we have today, things are more instant gratification, it's too easy for kids to turn on xbox and so many fa,ilys get over-extended on softball leagues and the like. As far as trains go, they are not teh in-grained thing in American Society they once were, railroads are gone from so many towns and villages and trains hold no where near the facination with young people they did decades ago. Model manufacturers have had to resort to prefinihed/semi assembled kits to try and drw youth into model car building. Just imagine the modelers of the sixties who used straightened out tin can metal to scratch build hopper cars and the like...today....if that was the case th hobby would dry up ! Few have much of any patience at all any more and if they can't automatically aquire the skills they move on to something else.

I agree that the hobby was costlier in the firties and sixties per value of the dollar than today. Model railroading (HO at least) was blessed with low and almost totally stable prices from teh mid seventies to the early nineties on many common items. Suddenly long overdue price increases start coming in bunches as well as upgraded RTR stuff and we see prices jump in a short time....sticker shock.

[CNJ831]

QUOTE: Originally posted by Paul3

CNJ831 wrote:

QUOTE: A great many posters, past and present, either seem to be Pollyannas or don't wi***o except the possibility that the hobby they love so much (and me too) might be in decline.

And then there are the great many posters both here and on the Atlas forum that are "doom-and-gloomers", the Chicken Little-types that insist that the hobby is dying and there's nothing that can be done, so we might as well just chuck it all and take up stamp collecting or something.

However, we both agree that there is no way to accurately measure what's going on with the hobby. The traditional methods of using magazine subscription numbers and page counts, NMRA memberships, and train show attendance are now flawed. The internet has seen to that.

As always, Paul wants to disagree with and argue each and every point one by one...and without including any evidence that contradicts what already has been said. I'll agree that every point I mentioned might have some sort of possible alternate explanation. But it makes very little sense to contend that all these signs of decline should have come together at one time and NOT mean the obvious! So if we wi***o re-argue these points, so be it.

As to MR, NMRA, train shows, etc. no longer being any sort of barometer of the hobby's health because of the internet, that is stictly nonsense. The Internet simply has become the excuse or wipping boy at every point on these forums. I, and the wide circle of modelers I am acquainted with, feel the Internet is no more than an amusement, except maybe for eBay. As I already pointed out, NMRA found more that half its regional membership is not even computer literate! Elsewhere, a government survey has found only a small fraction of those 60 or older are on-line. Like it or not, Paul, this is the hobby's majority of fellas. The internet is no where near the great hobby influence some like to think it is.

Regarding hobbyists' ages, any trip to a show, club meeting, mall display, choose any venue you like, will demonstrate that the most of hobbyists are over 50. There is not one shred of evidence that there is some sort of uncounted, invisible, youth movement in the hobby...TAMAR proves that. Those under 30 have little or no interest in model trains. To think otherwise is just fantasy.

There is also absolutely no evidence that can be pointed to that MR's circulation loss is directly related to the internet. And RMC's circulation has been dropping since about 1980, long before most of us ever heard of the Net. One may infer readership loss because of the drop in circulation that has happened to newpapers and some popular magazines but their purpose is not hardcopy reference material, like MR, et al. Hobby magazines are quite something else. Likewise, with the questions posters come to this forum with, it's obvious they are unable to find all that much useful hobby info on-line in the first place, or they don't understand it.

As to the WGH campaign. If not an act of desperation, then why after decades of growth did we suddenly need to start hyping the hobby (and just when other indicators started saying decline)? This would never happen if the hobby was thriving. No other explanation for the appearance of this campaign makes any sense. And who is the campaign aimed at? Certainly not youth, who might bring longterm life into the hobby. It is aimed at men 45-60, those in their peak earn years. The companies needed an infusion of new big spenders, not general hobbyist, to stay in the black.

Thomas the savior of the hobby? Show me any hard evidence of that. He's a character in a TV semi-cartoon. Kids will turn out just as quickly to see Sponge Bob but it won't influence their hobby interests as adults in the future. Lionel/Flyer were real and there on the livingroom floor each Christmas morning, or maybe year-round in the basement on a 4x8 board. You can not compare the two for influencing a child's future hobby interests as there is no similarity.

If times were so good in the hobby, limited runs would be far larger than they are. The manufacturers are clearly aiming at a very limited and shrinking consumer base. While manufacturers production run numbers are pretty much a secret, the NH society did indicate that the first run of DL-109s in NH paint (with 2 road numbers) amounted to something like 600 units TOTAL. Yes, the DL-109 was done in other road names but the total run could hardly have amounted to more than 2,000-2,500 units, tops. That aint many units for a thriving hobby.

Finally, people have as much spare time as they want, huh? I don't know where in CT you live but in NY it's a constant mad scramble to make a good living. Young and middle-aged men in my area all commute to NYC. They leave at 6AM and come home about 8PM, maybe eat dinner, do a little more office work, spend an hour with the kids and fall into bed. Nobody I know who isn't retired can even claim to have time for a hobby...it's all about paying the bills. I've been in local clubs that failed because too many members had job commitments evenings and weekends. Drop that lifestyle and you loose your house, your 3 cars, and your career.

CNJ831

[Paul3]

CNJ831, why is it that only you are allowed to post your conclusions without evidence? Why am I the only one that has to provide chapter and verse to prove my statements? You say that the internet is no big deal... You prove it. And please don't say that anonymous government reports state that most people over 60 aren't online is "proof".

As far as the NMRA goes, it's old and gray, so of course there aren't too many internet users. But the NMRA is just not that important these days. My club, the South Shore Model Railway Club of Hingham, MA, at one time had everyone in the club a member of the NMRA. Now it has maybe 3 NMRA members in it out of 60 club members. Most (myself included) don't see the need to join the NMRA as it doesn't do much for us. And I can't buy that the "majority of fellas" are over 60. Over 50? Ok. But not over 60. At my club, there are around 15 or so over 60. A significant portion, but by no means a majority. However, we have over 35 members over 50.

And those under 30 have no little to no interest in model trains? There sure are a lot of little kids at my club's open houses (where attendance routinely tops 1000), so much so that it can look like a kindergarten at times.

Your quote about how posters coming here proves that there isn't much to find on the internet for model railroading is ridiculous. What do you think this forum is? If it wasn't for the internet, where would these posters turn to? Answer: the magazines. Now they don't have to.

There may be no evidence that MR's declining subscriptions is due to the internet, but there is no evidence that it isn't, either. It's certainly a factor amongst other magazines, why not MR?

WGH was launched by Kalmbach, correct? They of the declining magazine sales. Why is this evidence of a hobby in decline? Just because MR is selling less and launches a campaign to increase sales doesn't mean there are fewer model railroaders, just fewer MR readers. And the WGH campaign is aimed at everybody, kids included. The kids certainly seemed impressed when my father and I gave a talk at a local library this winter using WGH matericals.

We'll have to wait and see if Thomas makes a true impact or not, it's simply too early to tell. But the operating RR museums do call Thomas the "Little Blue Money Machine" whenever the operating loco comes around.

And spare me with the low production numbers of the P1K DL109, & that somehow this engine is an indicator of a hobby in decline. There was only 74 ever made of the real ones, and the NH had 60 of them. I'm more impressed that it was even made in the first place and that it did so well they re-ran it (this time in 4 NH numbers). I think that's pretty impressive for such a relatively unknown loco (see the "Ask Trains" letters in the latest issue).

What makes you think I live in CT? Do I know you, Mr. Anonymous? Here in Massachusetts (where I live as it says in my profile), the people I know in this hobby seem to be able to make time to get to our club once or twice a week for 3 or 4 hours (and the majority of our members are not retired). Even my bro-in-law who commutes to Boston by rail (who's a white-collar engineer) has his hobby...he's in a rock band which has practices and over 100 dates a year.

I admit that I phrased that sentence wrong about "people having all the spare time they want". I'll take my lumps over that one because I was wrong to say it exactly that way. My point was supposed to be that people always seem to complain about not having enough spare time, and yet they all seem to have no problem watching and keeping current with "Survivor", "American Idol", et al. If these people gave up an hour or two a week of TV time and did something else, they might be amazed at what they can accomplish in a hobby.

Paul A. Cutler III
*****************
Weather Or No Go New Haven
*****************

[jfugate]

As to what age groups are online, you can google for the Congressional Study done recently of who is and who is not online in America.

See: http://www.netcaucus.org/statistics/

Basically, 70% of Amercans in general have an email, while only 30% of those over 60 have an email. 90% of those under 30 have an email.

Other statistics are similar ... and they prove the basic notion that the older you are, the less online you are.

[Anonymous]

Just to reassure you guys - I am taking this topic very seriously over this side of the pond - I am 26 and one of the youngest modellers I know - my girlfriend is nearing 30 and wanting to have kids in a few years (the body clock is ticking....!) I have said thats fine as long as:

1. We produce at least one boy;

2. He is going to be interested in Railways or face adoption!

(Just kidding!)

In all seriousness there are still a steady number of youngsters interested in the hobby - I work on the Bluebell Railway in Sussex at the weekends as a trainee fireman, and we have have a steady influx of 10-16 year olds who love steam - many of which have model railways, but are smothered from buying too much stuff, because of the prices we pay in the UK - I've tried to tell a few of them that with the current $-£ exchange rate its a great time to buy excellent quality US stuff as silly money prices!

Sod computers - what they useful for?.......chatting with people about railways on the otherside of the Atlantic -well they have some uses.....!

Regards,

Stephen.

[Anonymous]

Ok, folks, I'll join in on this one. I rather agree with Stephen in regards to the age demographic (being 32 myself). [#ditto] The reason most of those our age don't tend to be visible/heard is because a) we are relatively new to the hobby and can be intimidated by highly knowledgable elders who grew up with these engines (I for one never saw any working locos until I was a teenager). and b) most of us are still getting through school and haven't had enough time to really get into the hobby as much as we would like. I personally just finished my grad work only a couple of years ago and am only just now getting started with scratchbuilding.

My [2c]

[Anonymous]

QUOTE: Originally posted by CubanRailways


Sod computers - what they useful for?.......chatting with people about railways on the otherside of the Atlantic -well they have some uses.....!

Regards,

Stephen.

I used the internet the other day to enjoy some of very hard charging british steam as taken on a camcorder thanks to a forum user. I will be putting those on disk and sharing the images with family who may not have the fast connections.

The hobby will endure.

There are people that play with trains. They are fun to play with. I am close to 40 and feel that there is another 30 years left in the hobby. Maybe I live long enough to see the MR's 100th anniversary? Who knows. Hopefully still in a magazine form but I advocated a electronic form of sharing data instead of costly paper and ink.

There is money in the Hobby. Many people are dying off and the estates are being sold to a good penny to those who might be reaching for thier child hoods. Trainshows are doing ok, they sometimes get snotty and overprices 30 year old engines to try and stay with the newer higher quality engines.

Bastions such as Clubs, Model Train Shows and other gatherings will occur as long as the people care about the trains. Families generally enjoy trains but Life with it's breakneck speed and lack of time for anything except RTR threatens some aspects of the hobby.

50 years ago you were handed a box with wood parts in it. From that raw material you wanted to build a passenger car. You had to use many skills and time to get it done right. Now you can buy said passenger car already built at prices that seems to be quite profitable for the manufactor.

20 years ago you went into a store to look at the latest. The MR, Trains etc magazines were the "Herald Men" calling the new products coming into the market. We eagerly gathered about the news racks and maiboxes monthly.

Now in the age of the internet, we can literally be aware of new products even before the design is approved by the Factory. Case in point... the announcement of Precision Scale Craft Models the other day in MR on the forums. My LHS and HIS distrubitors knew NOTHING about this news.. I imagine only now they are hearing about it.

We can sit and research prices and buy/sell models at will. No longer do we have to pack it into the car and take it to the trainshow. However there are always folks that do this for a living and they will carry on the shows.

The hobby has enjoyed a burst of new steam starting with Bachmann's 2-8-0 spectrum line and the recent BLI offerings. The first time I laid eyes on the MYC 4-6-4 showing off with shouts of steam chuffs and whistle that could be heard thru the entire store. I thought this is a pretty thing that wont get much market share because it is too expensive. Almost like brass.

Well. I own 4 Steamers that are based on the QSi techology and plan to purchase more steam whenever they feel that it is worth to make a profit producing them.

I am going to take one paragraph and rant about today's products and how they are offered. I recently pre ordered some products to the factory by a deadline because they might not be availible after a deadline.

Or worse not produced at all due to too few orders. This is not fair to the majority of modelers. Take the walthers barge situation for example.. They made these for a few years then "Retired" recent MR issues related to sea based railroading cause much interest in these kits that are no longer being produced.

I sold my barge set on ebay as I dont have the room for twice.. no.. more than twice the orginal retail MSRP of both Barge and Float. Nice profit to me but Walthers can see this post and take note that they need to start making these kits again. The bidding wars on Ebay goes to the one with the most dollars.. not the average hobby person who just needs a barge.

Whatever floats I guess.

The hobby will be around for a while. Walmart is pushing RFID technology onto individual boxes so they can be scanned into the computer by radio instead of picked up, numbers read and matched to a stack of paper invoices.

Think about a signal that commands a engine to stop at a red. Senses a approach and passage of the other train during a meet and then commands the engine to proceed. All without operator attention. I think the future might hold AI (Artifical intellegence) products that will help us run trains better.

50 years ago Cell phones as we know them today is science fiction. I imagine those who create new and useful products for the hobby years from now will carry on the tradition of running trains for our children long after we are dead and gone.

[railroadyoshi]

Being 12, I think there is a problem in the number of new modelers, but it is not as bad as you think. Sit in your hobby shop for a while, and you will notice the kids come and go.
My favorite activity on saturday is to bike down to my LHS.
Still there has to be away to intrigue young modelers.

When we had a party, the only thing the kids wanted to do was crash my beloved trains
(and succeeded)

Could that be harnessed?

Look around though:
at your LHS
conventions
NMRA meetings
Clubs

You will see kids my age at many of these meetings

Siddharth Agrawal

[Anonymous]

railroadyoshi.. get some tyco trainsets.

Have the kids cra***hem. I crashed mine alot and they still ran. Basically the set I had was only good for crashing and derailing. =)

Give them that, it will protect your more delicate stuff.

[CNJ831]

There you go again, Paul, a long post with not a single statistical fact or figure to bolster your arguments...just more unsupported opinion.

You brought the Internet into this discussion, not I. I only replied to your statement that, "Internet use is a big problem with periodical publications..." Since YOU brought it up, why don't YOU provide the hard numbers how it's affected MR's circulation.

There were no anonymous suverys cited by me. I based my age figures on decades of MR published data (the best source available in the hobby) and Joe Fugate, who posted the facts re the gov. survey some days ago, posts the link once again. So, won't you please provide references of equal quality to substantiate your contentions?

I cited 55 years as the "average" of todays' modeler and the suggested that the majority of hobbyists are 60 or better...very little different. You attempt to make some sort of unclear point about many modelers being 50 or better. There is no absolute cutoff where something happens to change the nature of hobbyists, so what difference is +/- 5 years (from 55) going to make on the question. What it does still boil down to a very great many, and perhaps even a majority of hobbyists, are not actively on-line nor have left MR to go there.

So the NMRA is composed of old guys and isn't relevant...because you say so. I agree, the organization is fading but it's just as much a cross section of hobbyists as any other group, club, or organization out there and its figures just as applicable. If you don't think so, let's see valid representational figures from groups you feel are.

You say spare you the low production numbers for the DL-109. However, it is probably THE ONLY MODEL for which some sort of numbers can actually be found. I expect they are rather typical of most of today's limited runs (certain popular late model diesels possibly do rather better). If they aren't typical, please show us all your figures that prove otherwise.

While Kalmbach announced the WGH program in the pages of MR, it was hardly the principle supporter when you look at the long list of companies involved. Surely they were all worried about something serious happening if they were willing to commit a million dollars to the program. What was it for if not a declining bottom line? And if you actually read the WGH manifesto you'll read that the campaign is intentionally aimed at men 45-60 years of age, not just "everyone". And what an amazing coincidence that these are just the guys in the best financial position to bolster the sagging profits of the companies involved! Any benefit to Kalmbach and MR's circulation was going to be very secondary.

Yes, I'm sure your club's open houses bring in a lot of youngsters. Slot car race tracks would do the same thing and I've seen it too at model air shows. If it moves fast, maybe has blinking lights, and makes noise, kids will love it. But seeing a quality layout a few times as a child isn't likely to leave a long lasting impression in more than a very few of them and is hardly a substitute for the experience of have a Lionel/Flyer setup in your house as a kid to play with for hours...that's where the enthusiasm for trains came from for most of us. Its unlikely such will come from Thomas.

I'm not really a gloom-and-doomer. I'm a longtime hobbyist whose eyes are wide open to the obvious trends that have surfaced in our beloved hobby over the past decade or so.

CNJ831

[Paul3]

CNJ831 wrote:

QUOTE: There you go again, Paul, a long post with not a single statistical fact or figure to bolster your arguments...just more unsupported opinion.

Not unlike yourself, Mr. Anonymous (don't you just love people who attack you that hide behind a handle?). BTW, still think I live in CT?

QUOTE: You brought the Internet into this discussion, not I. I only replied to your statement that, "Internet use is a big problem with periodical publications..." Since YOU brought it up, why don't YOU provide the hard numbers how it's affected MR's circulation.

I can't provide the hard numbers for MR (how would that be even possible?), but I can quote some sources that says the internet is effecting periodical publications (which are magazines and newspapers). From www.stateofthenewsmedia.com, the Annual Report 2005 has several interesting quotes:

"There is real hope in the numbers of people who seek news online, particularly the young, a group that shows scant interest in traditional media."

"There is more evidence than before, too, that the Web is taking viewers away from television, and that people who read newspapers are doing that increasingly on-screen rather than in print."

Average Age of News Magazine Readers
Compared to U.S. population, 1995 - 2004
http://www.stateofthenewsmedia.org/2005/images/narrative_charts/magazines/aud_c.jpg

Regular Audiences of Select Media
1994-2004, Select Years
http://www.stateofthenewsmedia.org/2005/images/narrative_charts/magazines/aud_i.jpg

(note that the Online News is the only upward trend on the chart)

"How do they bring in younger readers who are interested in the news, but who do not normally turn to magazines for current events coverage and context? The answer is probably complicated. Studies show this younger audience is the most comfortable with using the Internet to get news."

QUOTE: There were no anonymous suverys cited by me. I based my age figures on decades of MR published data (the best source available in the hobby) and Joe Fugate, who posted the facts re the gov. survey some days ago, posts the link once again.

You said, "Elsewhere, a government survey has found only a small fraction of those 60 or older are on-line." That sounded like an "anonymous survey" to me. Now, of course, we know where the data came from, but I didn't when I posted. I'm sorry, but I don't read every thread on this forum, so how could I know that Jeff posted it days ago? You didn't say where the info came from.

QUOTE: What it does still boil down to a very great many, and perhaps even a majority of hobbyists, are not actively on-line nor have left MR to go there.

You claim to know the above because surveys in MR show that their readers are 55+, and that the majority of those over 60 are not online. Correct? Well, what if not all model railroaders subscribe to MR (a safe bet)? As the evidence I posted above shows, younger people are not buying traditional media like they used to. In light of that fact, isn't it possible that there is a large number of younger model railroaders that don't subscribe to MR and therefore are not part of the MR survey? That these people are going to alternative sources of hobby info like the internet?

QUOTE: So the NMRA is composed of old guys and isn't relevant...because you say so. I agree, the organization is fading but it's just as much a cross section of hobbyists as any other group, club, or organization out there and its figures just as applicable. If you don't think so, let's see valid representational figures from groups you feel are.

But don't you see? That's the problem, there is no valid representational group anymore. 20-30 years ago, the only way for modelers to share ideas was with magazines, NMRA meetings, clubs, and newsletters. It was very easy to judge the state of the hobby by using MR surveys, NMRA numbers, club status, etc., because it was the only game in town. The internet has changed all that. Now there are who-knows-how-many people on the forums that can exchange ideas without being an MR subscriber, an NMRA member, a member of a club, etc. This changes the traditional way to measure the state of the hobby. Some way, we've got to include internet usage, but I don't know how.

QUOTE: You say spare you the low production numbers for the DL-109. However, it is probably THE ONLY MODEL for which some sort of numbers can actually be found. I expect they are rather typical of most of today's limited runs (certain popular late model diesels possibly do rather better). If they aren't typical, please show us all your figures that prove otherwise.

To use a single, rare prototype model to signify the decline of the hobby in general is ludicrous. It's too bad it's the only one you have numbers for (and where did those come from? Certainly not Life-Like. Did Rick Abramson leak the production numbers?). I'd be far more impressed if the prototype in quesiton was actually produced in numbers greater than 100.

WRT the WGH campaign, please quote exactly where they state they are aiming at the 45-60 age bracket.

QUOTE: I'm not really a gloom-and-doomer. I'm a longtime hobbyist whose eyes are wide open to the obvious trends that have surfaced in our beloved hobby over the past decade or so.

Oh, no, you're not a "gloom-and-doomer", you just take all the evidence and emphasize the negative.

Paul A. Cutler III
*****************
Weather Or No Go New Haven
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[jfugate]

My rough guestimate with 30% of seniors online, 90% of under 30 folks online, and the average American online stat of 70% online -- is that about 50% of model railroaders are online.

I think this general guestimate works because of the general age skew being that most modelers today are probably over 30 and a fair share are 50+, if the gray heads at conventions and meets is any indication of the typical modeler.

The irony to me with all this is that anyone in the hobby who thinks they can "get the word out" to their audience just by using the internet -- is sadly mistaken. Throw in MR's recent snafu of going internet only on their public events listing and you can clearly see the less-than-ideal way this informs people.

I think the real zinger in MR's decision here is their paying advertisers would not sit still for one minute if MR cut their audience in half. Yet this is what going internet only does for the event listings.

The point is, the internet is certainly making a dent, and yes, it is significant, but it's not the overwhelming influence people might think it is -- yet. That day will come, but it's going to take another 10-20 years.

[CNJ831]

Well, here we go again Paul...

Yes, I've already agreed that the printed news media is suffering from TV and the Internet and I acknowledge the sources you cite regarding exactly that. But where does it say that this applies to technical, craft, or instructional magazines? MR is hardly a news magazine, it's an informational guide and instructional publication. People don't retain copies of NewsWeek but nearly all of us have stacks of older MRs around. Has there been a decline in the circulation of National Geographic, Hot Rod, or perhaps woodworking magazines? These are comparable publications, not news publications, so please show me numbers concerning them.

You go on to ask, "Well, what if not all model railroaders subscribe to MR?" Well, I'm sure they don't! But show me some evidence beyond baseless opinion that MR subscribers don't represent a typical cross section of all hobbyists in their actual proportions. And you go on to say, "...isn't it possible that there is a large number of younger model railroaders that don't subscribe to MR...?" To this I must once again ask where is there ANY DIRECT EVIDENCE OF THIS? We certainly don't see overwhelming evidence of young people at train shows, in clubs, or at conventions. Are they also all in hinding? I could make all sorts of claims about MR's readership or non-subscribers but that's pointless. Without some sort of hard numerical evidence such claims become meaningless speculation.

As Joe F. has also indicated above and I've said as well, the Internet is not nearly the great influence in our particular hobby some would like to make it appear. Nor has it so drastically changed the ways of hobbyists that all previous and current statisical material regarding the hobby's make-up has suddenly become invalid. Past MR surveys, circulation figures, et al. are still the best ways to evaluate what is happening in model railroading.

As to the productions runs question, the total number of DL-109's made with New Haven markings was cited on the NHT&HA webpage. Obscure prototype or not, I see no reason to believe that run would not have been a typical example of other limited runs. As I've already said, I'm sure some very popular diesel engines are probably produced in somewhat, but not drastically larger, numbers.

And, no, I don't just,"...take all the evidence (sic) and emphasize the negative." But I'm keen enough that when I see a startling confluence of trends and changes in the hobby that I am not blind to them, nor what they point to. Reaching a wrong conclusion based on one or two trends is quite possible. Doing so using ten or more reduces that probability to almost nil.

CNJ831

[Paul3]

CNJ831 wrote:

QUOTE: Well, here we go again Paul...

Oh, c'mon, you make it sound like I'm posting 20 times a day. Look at my post count. In the past 3 years, I've only got around 200 posts. That's less than one a week. Whatever, you just seem awfully fond of that phrase...

QUOTE: Yes, I've already agreed that the printed news media is suffering from TV and the Internet and I acknowledge the sources you cite regarding exactly that. But where does it say that this applies to technical, craft, or instructional magazines?

Sigh. I stated that the internet is a big problem for periodicals. You challenged me, claiming that the intenet was merely "an amusement", and I proved it that it really is a problem for the industry as a whole. I have no idea (and no easy way to find out) about the specifics of certain magazine subscription numbers. But isn't it possible that the intenet is siphoning off new, younger subscribers to MR?

QUOTE: I could make all sorts of claims about MR's readership or non-subscribers but that's pointless. Without some sort of hard numerical evidence such claims become meaningless speculation.

All you have for facts and figures are MR & NMRA surveys. Hardly comprehensive, now are they? Please tell me how one determines the number of people (and their ages) who don't submit a survey response, hmmm? Once you think of a way, I'll get you some "direct evidence". Perhaps the next MR survey should be both online and by hardcopy to get some decent figures.

But until then, I will assume that since 90% of the people under 30 are online, that younger model railroaders are getting their MR-fix online, not by hardcopy. Do I have evidence of this? Nope. Do I care? Nope, not for my opinion. You can accuse me of spouting "meaningless speculation" all you want. What I find amusing is that with all the garbage that gets posted to internet forums all the time, you take the time out of your day to come gunning for me.

QUOTE: As Joe F. has also indicated above and I've said as well, the Internet is not nearly the great influence in our particular hobby some would like to make it appear.

50% of all model railroaders isn't that great an influence??? Man, what does it take?

QUOTE: Nor has it so drastically changed the ways of hobbyists that all previous and current statisical material regarding the hobby's make-up has suddenly become invalid.

Invalid? No. Incomplete...yes.

QUOTE: Past MR surveys, circulation figures, et al. are still the best ways to evaluate what is happening in model railroading.

They were the only way, and since there was little competition for model railroaders' attention, it made all the sense in the world to only use those figures. But the world has changed, as much as you think it hasn't.

QUOTE: As to the productions runs question, the total number of DL-109's made with New Haven markings was cited on the NHT&HA webpage.

Yeah, and I asked by whom? I don't recall anyone employed by Life-Like ever posting on the NHRHTA Forum. For all we know, it was some guy only speculating how big the production run was with no direct knowledge.

QUOTE: Obscure prototype or not, I see no reason to believe that run would not have been a typical example of other limited runs.

Manufacturers these days make production runs based on pre-orders plus a certain percentage (sorry, you'll just have to take my word on that one). How many non-New Haven fans wanted DL109's? Southern had a couple, CNW had one, ATSF had one, RI had a few, etc. These were rare, extremely rare prototypes outside of New England. How much interest do you think there was, nationwide, for a DL109? My opinion, not much.

QUOTE: Reaching a wrong conclusion based on one or two trends is quite possible. Doing so using ten or more reduces that probability to almost nil.

The only problem with that statement is that you are only using MR surveys, NMRA surveys, and your own anecdotal evidence. That's hardly "ten or more".

Paul A. Cutler III
*****************
Weather Or No Go New Haven
*****************