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Has Vintage HO Stuff Increased in Price Over the Past Ten Years?

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  • Member since
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  • From: SE. WI.
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Posted by mbinsewi on Friday, January 29, 2021 2:32 PM

I love showing his model off.  I followed the build when he did on the Diesel Detailer forum.

After that, Keith, owner of Plano, decided to do a kit.

Once again. I have gone  Off Topic,  Sorry!  Smile, Wink & Grin

Mike.

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Posted by Pdubya on Friday, January 29, 2021 6:04 PM

I have been collecting and selling HO trains since the 1980s and if I had to sum up I would say it is a mixed bag out there. Some people have no idea what they have, others know exactly what they have. Then you have to take into account what they each expect to get out of an item. Vintage is much the same.

For instance, recently I have been purchasing MDC ore cars (the smooth or ribbed small straight side ones, not the sloping sides) for my layout concept. I am only willing to pay under $10 for them, so at times progress is slow. But I can usually find a few for around $7 give or take. The newer Walthers runs are pricey.

Certain model stuff is almost always pricey. Brass Shays, Camelback engines and rarer railroads come to mind, $400 at a bare minimum, normally $500-1000 is closer to 2021 reality. As a result, even the MDC shay kits are going for much more that they are truly worth, but it's because the alternatives are no cheaper (Bachmann @$375+). That is not to say one can't find any bargains- it is possible to get lucky on a buried item or one tucked away in a less traffic internet area. But you have to be ready to pounce on it.

For instance, I am kind of kicking myself for not buying a Sunset N&W M-2 Class brass loco Howie's had on his website. It was kind of buried in multiple pages so the normal N&W crowd missed it amongst all the Pennsy loot. He had it at a reduced price of $395. Quite the bargain if you follow those 12-wheelers ($550 is usual). I put it off over and over, then came across a new eBay listing yesterday that looked suspiciously like the one at Howie's site. Yep, that was it. As I write this it currently has 42 bids and stands at $677. But, that's eBay and collecting for you.

Modeling goes in cycles too. Right now as someone mentioned, a lot of the older guys are passing on and their collections are flowing back into the market. Some via large clearing houses (with equally large budgets) like Brasstrains or Trainz, others on eBay or websites. It is a good time to be looking for the second tier railroad items that don't get made often by manufactures for that reason. Lehigh Valley, Seaboard, Reading, New Haven (to name just a few), etc. are much-valued by a niche group. They tend to go quite high due to their inherent scarcity in the market.

On the other hand, and this is one of my pet peeves with "our" industry- the 'whole popular railroad gets the production' every time because they (usually) sell. I am sure you guys have seen the BLI Southern Pacific Daylight passenger cars that are from, what- the 1990s? Man... they practically can't GIVE the damn things away. But if I am looking for Atlantic Coast Line or Seaboard cars, the Walthers lower end Mainline stuff demands double or more than what they used to cost you. Doesn't seem fair, but that is the world we live in now.

Anyone looking for new stuff has to get used to pre-ordering, period. Jason Shron, the founder of Rapido Trains has a full explanation of why in Jan '21 RMC's Diverging Points column called "Preorders: A Necessary Evil" if you are curious, it is a good read.

To wrap, I think if you are interested in Vintage models just be patient. Go to train shows when they are eventually open again. Look for bulk lots. You aren't the only one doing it of course. There is a large group of "Blue Box" model railroaders who just want to run trains and that's fine. The stuff is out there, relatively cheap too. But you have to be willing to set your price levels and stick to them.

Best of luck!

P.

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Posted by emdmike on Saturday, January 30, 2021 1:57 PM

As prices have gone thru the roof for the brand new stuff, dealers have ramped up the price of good quality second hand stuff.  Nice boxed vintage stuff appeals to both collectors and operators that are exploring some kit building, especially during the current health crisis.  There are deals out there, but the absolutely dirt cheap stuff has mostly dried up right now.  I myself have prefered the older stuff thru the years, from brass when I was running 2 rail DC powered/DCC HO to now 3 rail AC Marklin in HO.  I also have older stuff for my gauge 1 outdoor railway.  With so many online venues to shop, doing one's research is the only way to make sure you get the best deal.  Till train shows return around the country/world, online or your LHS(if you have one) is our only choice.  Prices will remain high as most all hobby supplies are in high demand as we are mostly stuck at home and need to pass the time somehow!    Be safe out there everybody.    Mike

Silly NT's, I have Asperger's Syndrome

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Posted by ATLANTIC CENTRAL on Saturday, January 30, 2021 4:42 PM

Lastspikemike

Have prices gone through the roof for new stuff?

I see the effect of inflation on values of NIB or NOS old stock, I.e. good old stuff is holding price in nominal terms in many cases. 

I do not see increases in price for new stuff that are over and above inflation rates, generally speaking.

Factor in the superb quality both in performance and sound effects and new stuff seems cheaper than ever.

Anybody actually done the math? 

 

Yes, Paul3 and I have done the math repeatedly for years on here and you are correct. Adjusted for inflation and giving any consideration to the value added features, model trains cost less now than they ever have.

That still does not make me in any hurry to buy any $600 steam locos from Broadway or MTH........

But I don't complain about prices, I buy stuff or I don't.

Sheldon

 

    

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Posted by BigDaddy on Saturday, January 30, 2021 5:04 PM

Sheldon would roughly have an idea of where this was located, Central and Orleans, but not from a 1900-1920 perspective.  Equadistant from the old MB Klein, Hopkins Hospital and Little Italy. 

I post it because it is such an ugly building, it would be a great model.

According to the inflation adjusted tools, a $2 gallon of rye should cost $58.  You can buy a 5th of Baltimore (Under Armor owner's distillery) Sagamore Farms for $48.  Change the title of the thread to This Drinking Rye Hobby Is Too Expensive

Henry

COB Potomac & Northern

Shenandoah Valley

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Posted by SeeYou190 on Sunday, January 31, 2021 10:26 AM

BigDaddy
This Drinking Rye Hobby Is Too Expensive

Good Rye is too expensive!

We need to avoid discussing new train prices, or this thread will become part of the "This hobby is too expensive" thread. The OP was asking about vintage trains.

Yes, vintage prices are seemingly going up, but they are all over the place.

-Kevin

Living the dream.

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Posted by rrebell on Sunday, January 31, 2021 11:03 AM

Most inflation is an illusion. I track prices for what I buy for many things, sure if you look at what they say is inflation but that is just as bogus as emplyment fiqures (did you know that if you earn $20 a week you are considered employed). Inflation has things like housing but that varies by a persons situation, new car, never done that. Over 30 years ago the cost of a loaf of bread was $1, still can do that, price of peanut butter was $2, still can do, name brand too but hamber has gone through the roof but steaks have not. Hamberger is 5x what it was 30 years ago.

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Posted by SeeYou190 on Sunday, January 31, 2021 11:12 AM

rrebell
new car, never done that

It seems to me that new cars have become more affordable.

My first new car was a 1988 Dodge Aries. It was nicely equipped, and cost over $15,000.00 to buy. My most recent new car was a full size Chevrolet Impala. It is ten times the car that Dodge Aries was, and it cost $34,000.00 in 2015. That is almost the same price when adjusted over the 27 years, and I was able to get a much better car, at a much lower interest rate.

Sorry about that... lets get back on topic...

-Kevin

Living the dream.

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Posted by maxman on Sunday, January 31, 2021 11:52 AM

rrebell
Over 30 years ago the cost of a loaf of bread was $1, still can do that

Yes, but I try to avoid anything from the dented item shelf...........

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Posted by speedybee on Sunday, January 31, 2021 12:41 PM

rrebell

Most inflation is an illusion

Agreed. And I think this is keeping to the topic, because the point is, it's not so simple as saying you should expect the price of things to increase by about 2%, or whatever they say inflation is, per year.

The car is a good example... if memory serves, the price of a decent new car, auto and A/C and power windows, has been a bit under $20k for at least a couple decades, despite the fact that inflation is happening and cars are generally getting nicer and better. Electronics, obviously, are an even more obvious example of things not inflating in price; computers, phones*, etc just keep getting cheaper while also getting more capable.

On the other hand, other things have gotten way more expensive. House prices in my section of the country have been skyrocketing for years. 20 years ago, median price for a detached house was $150k. "Inflation" would put that at $213k today. It passed $550k a year ago, and now since covid is over $700k.

Given that this is by far the most money that the average person will spend on anything, it rather overshadows the price changes on everything else IMO.

So yeah I guess the point of this post is, don't assume that prices for things should obey "inflation"

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Posted by MisterBeasley on Sunday, January 31, 2021 2:44 PM

To what extent is eBay to blame?  Early on, I got involved in auctions for used stuff, and soon realized that I was overpaying BECAUSE I WANTED IT!  

Train show prices can still be reasonable, like the clearance shelves at the LHS or the Walthers Flyer sales.

It takes an iron man to play with a toy iron horse. 

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Posted by SeeYou190 on Sunday, January 31, 2021 2:50 PM

MisterBeasley
I got involved in auctions for used stuff, and soon realized that I was overpaying BECAUSE I WANTED IT!  

Oh yeah, me too.

I have sure overpaid for used items here and there because I simply had to have them. This is especially true when an item comes up that has been impossible to find for several years.

I just recently paid a relatively high Buy It Now price for NMRA Heritage Collection #14, Bob Hegge's CROOKED MOUNTAIN LINES just because I have only ever seen it for sale once before.

-Kevin

-Kevin

Living the dream.

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Posted by fwright on Monday, February 1, 2021 3:52 PM

I think a couple of things have been happening.  The costs for dealers to take stuff to shows, and/or the costs to sell on Ebay have gone up significantly.  As a result, the asking price for items has gone up as well.  But the real value is determined when you go to sell, not buy.  And I haven't seen the actual return on average stuff I sell go up much, if at all.  In 2019, I saw a lot of show dealers taking home their cheap stuff - they just couldn't sell it at the inflated asking price. 

I expect when the new normal occurs, prices will actually go down, as has already happened in 3 rail O.  There are fewer and fewer model railroaders in acquisition mode, and there are definitely fewer collectors for HO brass or post-war Lionel O.  It reminds me very much of 2005 and 2006 when everybody in the real estate business was trying to keep prices up in the face of declining demand.  Eventually, things collapsed, and a lot of money was lost from 2007 - 2014 in most of the country.  Prices for the more common HO brass engines and used recent high end plastic are already declining despite ads and postings from sellers trying to make you believe otherwise.  The demand is softer than sellers would like you to believe.

In 2019, I would go around a couple of hours before the end of the show, and I was able to get Tyco/AHM 19th Century cars for $3-$4 each.  NIB Roundhouse Old Timer kits were $7 each.  Of course, they end up costing the same as a Labelle kit by the time paint, decals, trucks, couplers, and improved details are added on.  Point is the dealer couldn't sell them - there's probably all of 50 19th Century modelers in the country that attend train shows - for his starting price at the beginning of the show.  I ignore ridiculous Ebay buy it now - and many of them are.

I told my bride that if she outlasts me, just plan on putting the cars in a "free" box in the driveway or donating to Salvation Army or Goodwill.  It's not worth the effort of trying to get a return selling them.

Fred W

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Posted by rrebell on Monday, February 1, 2021 11:53 PM

The one thing that will rise prices is when a company goes away, but it always goes down again. One of the recent ones is Jordan, the price of cars and trucks went way up and went higher when we learned no one was allowed to buy the company, well  prices for most are back down now.

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