The one thing that will rise prices is when a company goes away, but it always goes down again. One of the recent ones is Jordan, the price of cars and trucks went way up and went higher when we learned no one was allowed to buy the company, well prices for most are back down now.
I think a couple of things have been happening. The costs for dealers to take stuff to shows, and/or the costs to sell on Ebay have gone up significantly. As a result, the asking price for items has gone up as well. But the real value is determined when you go to sell, not buy. And I haven't seen the actual return on average stuff I sell go up much, if at all. In 2019, I saw a lot of show dealers taking home their cheap stuff - they just couldn't sell it at the inflated asking price.
I expect when the new normal occurs, prices will actually go down, as has already happened in 3 rail O. There are fewer and fewer model railroaders in acquisition mode, and there are definitely fewer collectors for HO brass or post-war Lionel O. It reminds me very much of 2005 and 2006 when everybody in the real estate business was trying to keep prices up in the face of declining demand. Eventually, things collapsed, and a lot of money was lost from 2007 - 2014 in most of the country. Prices for the more common HO brass engines and used recent high end plastic are already declining despite ads and postings from sellers trying to make you believe otherwise. The demand is softer than sellers would like you to believe.
In 2019, I would go around a couple of hours before the end of the show, and I was able to get Tyco/AHM 19th Century cars for $3-$4 each. NIB Roundhouse Old Timer kits were $7 each. Of course, they end up costing the same as a Labelle kit by the time paint, decals, trucks, couplers, and improved details are added on. Point is the dealer couldn't sell them - there's probably all of 50 19th Century modelers in the country that attend train shows - for his starting price at the beginning of the show. I ignore ridiculous Ebay buy it now - and many of them are.
I told my bride that if she outlasts me, just plan on putting the cars in a "free" box in the driveway or donating to Salvation Army or Goodwill. It's not worth the effort of trying to get a return selling them.
Fred W
MisterBeasley I got involved in auctions for used stuff, and soon realized that I was overpaying BECAUSE I WANTED IT!
Oh yeah, me too.
I have sure overpaid for used items here and there because I simply had to have them. This is especially true when an item comes up that has been impossible to find for several years.
I just recently paid a relatively high Buy It Now price for NMRA Heritage Collection #14, Bob Hegge's CROOKED MOUNTAIN LINES just because I have only ever seen it for sale once before.
-Kevin
Living the dream.
To what extent is eBay to blame? Early on, I got involved in auctions for used stuff, and soon realized that I was overpaying BECAUSE I WANTED IT!
Train show prices can still be reasonable, like the clearance shelves at the LHS or the Walthers Flyer sales.
It takes an iron man to play with a toy iron horse.
rrebell Most inflation is an illusion
Most inflation is an illusion
Agreed. And I think this is keeping to the topic, because the point is, it's not so simple as saying you should expect the price of things to increase by about 2%, or whatever they say inflation is, per year.
The car is a good example... if memory serves, the price of a decent new car, auto and A/C and power windows, has been a bit under $20k for at least a couple decades, despite the fact that inflation is happening and cars are generally getting nicer and better. Electronics, obviously, are an even more obvious example of things not inflating in price; computers, phones*, etc just keep getting cheaper while also getting more capable.
On the other hand, other things have gotten way more expensive. House prices in my section of the country have been skyrocketing for years. 20 years ago, median price for a detached house was $150k. "Inflation" would put that at $213k today. It passed $550k a year ago, and now since covid is over $700k.
Given that this is by far the most money that the average person will spend on anything, it rather overshadows the price changes on everything else IMO.
So yeah I guess the point of this post is, don't assume that prices for things should obey "inflation"
rrebell Over 30 years ago the cost of a loaf of bread was $1, still can do that
Yes, but I try to avoid anything from the dented item shelf...........
rrebell new car, never done that
It seems to me that new cars have become more affordable.
My first new car was a 1988 Dodge Aries. It was nicely equipped, and cost over $15,000.00 to buy. My most recent new car was a full size Chevrolet Impala. It is ten times the car that Dodge Aries was, and it cost $34,000.00 in 2015. That is almost the same price when adjusted over the 27 years, and I was able to get a much better car, at a much lower interest rate.
Sorry about that... lets get back on topic...
Most inflation is an illusion. I track prices for what I buy for many things, sure if you look at what they say is inflation but that is just as bogus as emplyment fiqures (did you know that if you earn $20 a week you are considered employed). Inflation has things like housing but that varies by a persons situation, new car, never done that. Over 30 years ago the cost of a loaf of bread was $1, still can do that, price of peanut butter was $2, still can do, name brand too but hamber has gone through the roof but steaks have not. Hamberger is 5x what it was 30 years ago.
BigDaddyThis Drinking Rye Hobby Is Too Expensive
Good Rye is too expensive!
We need to avoid discussing new train prices, or this thread will become part of the "This hobby is too expensive" thread. The OP was asking about vintage trains.
Yes, vintage prices are seemingly going up, but they are all over the place.
Sheldon would roughly have an idea of where this was located, Central and Orleans, but not from a 1900-1920 perspective. Equadistant from the old MB Klein, Hopkins Hospital and Little Italy.
I post it because it is such an ugly building, it would be a great model.
According to the inflation adjusted tools, a $2 gallon of rye should cost $58. You can buy a 5th of Baltimore (Under Armor owner's distillery) Sagamore Farms for $48. Change the title of the thread to This Drinking Rye Hobby Is Too Expensive
Henry
COB Potomac & Northern
Shenandoah Valley
Lastspikemike Have prices gone through the roof for new stuff? I see the effect of inflation on values of NIB or NOS old stock, I.e. good old stuff is holding price in nominal terms in many cases. I do not see increases in price for new stuff that are over and above inflation rates, generally speaking. Factor in the superb quality both in performance and sound effects and new stuff seems cheaper than ever. Anybody actually done the math?
Have prices gone through the roof for new stuff?
I see the effect of inflation on values of NIB or NOS old stock, I.e. good old stuff is holding price in nominal terms in many cases.
I do not see increases in price for new stuff that are over and above inflation rates, generally speaking.
Factor in the superb quality both in performance and sound effects and new stuff seems cheaper than ever.
Anybody actually done the math?
Yes, Paul3 and I have done the math repeatedly for years on here and you are correct. Adjusted for inflation and giving any consideration to the value added features, model trains cost less now than they ever have.
That still does not make me in any hurry to buy any $600 steam locos from Broadway or MTH........
But I don't complain about prices, I buy stuff or I don't.
Sheldon
As prices have gone thru the roof for the brand new stuff, dealers have ramped up the price of good quality second hand stuff. Nice boxed vintage stuff appeals to both collectors and operators that are exploring some kit building, especially during the current health crisis. There are deals out there, but the absolutely dirt cheap stuff has mostly dried up right now. I myself have prefered the older stuff thru the years, from brass when I was running 2 rail DC powered/DCC HO to now 3 rail AC Marklin in HO. I also have older stuff for my gauge 1 outdoor railway. With so many online venues to shop, doing one's research is the only way to make sure you get the best deal. Till train shows return around the country/world, online or your LHS(if you have one) is our only choice. Prices will remain high as most all hobby supplies are in high demand as we are mostly stuck at home and need to pass the time somehow! Be safe out there everybody. Mike
Silly NT's, I have Asperger's Syndrome
I have been collecting and selling HO trains since the 1980s and if I had to sum up I would say it is a mixed bag out there. Some people have no idea what they have, others know exactly what they have. Then you have to take into account what they each expect to get out of an item. Vintage is much the same.
For instance, recently I have been purchasing MDC ore cars (the smooth or ribbed small straight side ones, not the sloping sides) for my layout concept. I am only willing to pay under $10 for them, so at times progress is slow. But I can usually find a few for around $7 give or take. The newer Walthers runs are pricey.
Certain model stuff is almost always pricey. Brass Shays, Camelback engines and rarer railroads come to mind, $400 at a bare minimum, normally $500-1000 is closer to 2021 reality. As a result, even the MDC shay kits are going for much more that they are truly worth, but it's because the alternatives are no cheaper (Bachmann @$375+). That is not to say one can't find any bargains- it is possible to get lucky on a buried item or one tucked away in a less traffic internet area. But you have to be ready to pounce on it.
For instance, I am kind of kicking myself for not buying a Sunset N&W M-2 Class brass loco Howie's had on his website. It was kind of buried in multiple pages so the normal N&W crowd missed it amongst all the Pennsy loot. He had it at a reduced price of $395. Quite the bargain if you follow those 12-wheelers ($550 is usual). I put it off over and over, then came across a new eBay listing yesterday that looked suspiciously like the one at Howie's site. Yep, that was it. As I write this it currently has 42 bids and stands at $677. But, that's eBay and collecting for you.
Modeling goes in cycles too. Right now as someone mentioned, a lot of the older guys are passing on and their collections are flowing back into the market. Some via large clearing houses (with equally large budgets) like Brasstrains or Trainz, others on eBay or websites. It is a good time to be looking for the second tier railroad items that don't get made often by manufactures for that reason. Lehigh Valley, Seaboard, Reading, New Haven (to name just a few), etc. are much-valued by a niche group. They tend to go quite high due to their inherent scarcity in the market.
On the other hand, and this is one of my pet peeves with "our" industry- the 'whole popular railroad gets the production' every time because they (usually) sell. I am sure you guys have seen the BLI Southern Pacific Daylight passenger cars that are from, what- the 1990s? Man... they practically can't GIVE the damn things away. But if I am looking for Atlantic Coast Line or Seaboard cars, the Walthers lower end Mainline stuff demands double or more than what they used to cost you. Doesn't seem fair, but that is the world we live in now.
Anyone looking for new stuff has to get used to pre-ordering, period. Jason Shron, the founder of Rapido Trains has a full explanation of why in Jan '21 RMC's Diverging Points column called "Preorders: A Necessary Evil" if you are curious, it is a good read.
To wrap, I think if you are interested in Vintage models just be patient. Go to train shows when they are eventually open again. Look for bulk lots. You aren't the only one doing it of course. There is a large group of "Blue Box" model railroaders who just want to run trains and that's fine. The stuff is out there, relatively cheap too. But you have to be willing to set your price levels and stick to them.
Best of luck!
P.
I love showing his model off. I followed the build when he did on the Diesel Detailer forum.
After that, Keith, owner of Plano, decided to do a kit.
Once again. I have gone , Sorry!
Mike.
My You Tube
mbinsewiInspired by Sean Steele's work with a Flexi-Flo: http://www.planomodelproducts.com/steele/s-steele.html
Thank you for that link.
Love those Flexi-Flo's. I have a few I'm working on. Plano makes a detail kit for them:
http://www.planomodelproducts.com/photos/10930.jpg
http://www.planomodelproducts.com/chopper_scq.html#Flex
Inspired by Sean Steele's work with a Flexi-Flo:
http://www.planomodelproducts.com/steele/s-steele.html
I remembered that in the old days, the situation in the second-hand market was completely different between brass and plastic. For brass, the model shop published an inventory list in a magazine and sent it to customers by mail or fax. The use of the Internet began in the late 1990s.
On the other hand, in order to get plastic products, it was necessary to visit model shops or go to train shows and swap meets. I visited the United States three times for that.
The online auctions, which started around 2000, have become convenient sources of procurement because of the wide variety of items and the fact that we can see the actual items in the photos. At the beginning there were many bulk-listings, and I was able to save on shipping costs to overseas. Around 2010, proxy bidders who send individual successful bids in bulk appeared and began to request them. I feel that today the number of listings is increasing for each indibisual model.
That's why I may have contributed to the soaring price. :P
The two Flexi-Flo covered hoppers have been repainted from the AHM. It's cheap! it's fun! it's proud! and it's great! See my blog post.
Kotaro Kuriu, Kyoto, Japan
rrebell ATLANTIC CENTRAL rrebell I have a couple of the hopper cars from MDC with added details. Other point is tracking prices. I have tracked prices for wood craftsman kits for many years. Recall when built up kits by FSM would go for $1000 if done by a pro and the cheapest kits by them was over $100 (except for real early kits that were not as good as later). For years I searched for their pile driver kit and never wanted to pay the freight of up to $200 or more, finally scored mine for around $100 on e-bay. Now I can buy all I want for around the price I paid. Tracked Campbell kits too, their prices are way down and brass also. Brass has been the biggest loser but their are a few that have maintained value in steam. Diesels have lost the most value along with many narrow gauge (I am talking just HO in all of this stuff). The world has changed in brass in that if someone makes it in plastic of great quality, then the brass version goes way down in price. You could see this comming with the hybreds that came out like the Powerhouse models many years ago. With the wood building kits, cheap lazers and CNC machines ect. have changed the game. Campbell is still in business and you buy any of it right now online: https://www.campbellscalemodels.com/default.asp I would be reluctant ot buy some old stock kit that might be missing stuff when I can just buy a new one from the maker. Their prices are reasonable and in line with inflation adjusted values from years ago when I sold them in the hobby shop. Sheldon I don't know about that, my average cost was about $15 vs $55 when I last bought one. I rarely pay retail and can get 80% of what I buy at 10 cents on the MRP price
ATLANTIC CENTRAL rrebell I have a couple of the hopper cars from MDC with added details. Other point is tracking prices. I have tracked prices for wood craftsman kits for many years. Recall when built up kits by FSM would go for $1000 if done by a pro and the cheapest kits by them was over $100 (except for real early kits that were not as good as later). For years I searched for their pile driver kit and never wanted to pay the freight of up to $200 or more, finally scored mine for around $100 on e-bay. Now I can buy all I want for around the price I paid. Tracked Campbell kits too, their prices are way down and brass also. Brass has been the biggest loser but their are a few that have maintained value in steam. Diesels have lost the most value along with many narrow gauge (I am talking just HO in all of this stuff). The world has changed in brass in that if someone makes it in plastic of great quality, then the brass version goes way down in price. You could see this comming with the hybreds that came out like the Powerhouse models many years ago. With the wood building kits, cheap lazers and CNC machines ect. have changed the game. Campbell is still in business and you buy any of it right now online: https://www.campbellscalemodels.com/default.asp I would be reluctant ot buy some old stock kit that might be missing stuff when I can just buy a new one from the maker. Their prices are reasonable and in line with inflation adjusted values from years ago when I sold them in the hobby shop. Sheldon
rrebell I have a couple of the hopper cars from MDC with added details. Other point is tracking prices. I have tracked prices for wood craftsman kits for many years. Recall when built up kits by FSM would go for $1000 if done by a pro and the cheapest kits by them was over $100 (except for real early kits that were not as good as later). For years I searched for their pile driver kit and never wanted to pay the freight of up to $200 or more, finally scored mine for around $100 on e-bay. Now I can buy all I want for around the price I paid. Tracked Campbell kits too, their prices are way down and brass also. Brass has been the biggest loser but their are a few that have maintained value in steam. Diesels have lost the most value along with many narrow gauge (I am talking just HO in all of this stuff). The world has changed in brass in that if someone makes it in plastic of great quality, then the brass version goes way down in price. You could see this comming with the hybreds that came out like the Powerhouse models many years ago. With the wood building kits, cheap lazers and CNC machines ect. have changed the game.
I have a couple of the hopper cars from MDC with added details. Other point is tracking prices. I have tracked prices for wood craftsman kits for many years. Recall when built up kits by FSM would go for $1000 if done by a pro and the cheapest kits by them was over $100 (except for real early kits that were not as good as later). For years I searched for their pile driver kit and never wanted to pay the freight of up to $200 or more, finally scored mine for around $100 on e-bay. Now I can buy all I want for around the price I paid. Tracked Campbell kits too, their prices are way down and brass also. Brass has been the biggest loser but their are a few that have maintained value in steam. Diesels have lost the most value along with many narrow gauge (I am talking just HO in all of this stuff). The world has changed in brass in that if someone makes it in plastic of great quality, then the brass version goes way down in price. You could see this comming with the hybreds that came out like the Powerhouse models many years ago. With the wood building kits, cheap lazers and CNC machines ect. have changed the game.
Campbell is still in business and you buy any of it right now online:
https://www.campbellscalemodels.com/default.asp
I would be reluctant ot buy some old stock kit that might be missing stuff when I can just buy a new one from the maker. Their prices are reasonable and in line with inflation adjusted values from years ago when I sold them in the hobby shop.
I don't know about that, my average cost was about $15 vs $55 when I last bought one. I rarely pay retail and can get 80% of what I buy at 10 cents on the MRP price
OK
ATLANTIC CENTRALCampbell is still in business
I need to build that Skull Valley Station that I've been hoarding for 30 years.
Their Saez Sash and Door was named after Andy Saez, the photographer at Southern Pacific. I met him, when he was a docent at the Durango and Silverton. He must be in his 80's now but he had a huge picture collection, which he used to sell at local train shows.
I think one of the keys to this topic is the existence of the HO Collector Magazine. When it was first published in 2017, I was worried about who would be interested in AHM and Rivarossi. Today is the fifth year. It means that there are definitely modelers who need this magazine. And the product introduced in an issue of the magazine will become popular.
I have found at train shows prices are all over the place. One guy is selling a kit for $5 and 2 rows over another has it for $25. Actually, I don't think the prices have kept up with inflation. The size of the show also seems to make a difference, small out of the way shows frequently have much better prices.
There does seem to be less NIB old stuff, especially locomotive kits.
I think as the more cheaply priced items are sold the remaining overpriced items become a bigger share of the market, so it looks like prices have gone up a lot. But really it's more a case of the $5 kit was sold and the same kit for $25 is still there after years of shows.
Paul
That rational has been used to reason with hobbyists that complain about the present day costs of high detail models to show they aren't really that expensive relative to the costs 30 or 40 years ago.
Rio Grande. The Action Road - Focus 1977-1983
I don't know the answer to the OP's question, and one would have to track a good sized sample yearly over the past ten years. Unless you do that, you won't get an answer worth taking seriously.
But my impression is that the worth of vintage items can be fickle, and only as much as someone is willing to pay. You may see some vintage items sell for relatively high prices, but that could be an artifact of something ephemeral.
Certainly if one is gambling on making money off of vintage items, you could very well be disappointed. Or you might get lucky. Are you feeling lucky? (voice of Dirty Harry). Well are you?
But seriously, yes, the pandemic may be affecting fleabay prices for "now" as many have too much time isloating at home and browse the web for stuff to buy. I expect in time that may change.
But I've noticed over the past ten years at train shows vintage models and kits have been plenty abundant as many bought them years ago and never had time or motivation to build them, and later dumped them on the secondary market. That is probably the real long term trend and would tend to devalue those things, in general.
The used model railroad market is hard to figure out. I've been selling off most of my "vintage" stuff for years. In my experience, most of the buyers for vintage stuff are like me, OLD. They aren't adding to their collection. Many are leaving for that big layout in the sky, causing a glut of the old items on the market. The younger generation doesn't want to devote the time to build the old kits. My wife and I found the same situation in our antique and collectable business. Items that were very saleable now are destined for the thirft store or the dumpster.
Trouble with e-bay now is too many people putting higher vstart prices, used to be if you started less than $1 you got a big break in fees, not any longer.
While we didn't have any train shows in this area last year due to the virus situation, there have always been large amounts of that "vintage" stuff at pretty well all of the shows I've attended in the past.A lot of it is "new", but at prices considerably above what they would have been when they were manufactured. There's usually a lot of the same stuff, but "used" - some is junk, and some is in almost new condition, and some of it has been upgraded, perhaps with better details or maybe custom paint and lettering. The prices are all over the place, as the sellers are often a friend or relative of the original owner, who has passed away. Some have a good idea of the true value, others seem to think that if it's old, it must be the equivalent of an antique, and worth a bundle. I usually take a look at this sort of stuff, but if it's not a reasonable price for what's offered, I simply walk away.I already have a great deal of that so-called "vintage" stuff on my layout, most of it with improved details and custom paint and lettering. I also have a full inventory of my locos and rolling stock, all with suggested prices spelled-out for a couple of good friends who have agreed to sell it after I've "left the building". Both say that the prices are too low (they get to pick what they want for free), but I've pointed out to both that the idea is to get rid of the stuff, more than it is to make money.
Whatever's left can be donated or simply dumped...it will make no difference to me.
I have a few items from the '50s in-use on my layout, and a few more such items in a box that just don't fit in. I'd give them away rather than rip-off someone who has no idea of their value...which is little.
Wayne