selector ATLANTIC CENTRALIf you think you are not a "modeler" because you ae not neck deep in copying some "exact" section of some real railroad like some of those "famous" people in the hobby press, then I feel sorry for you as another victum of the hobby press and their "you must do it this way" preaching. Please, Sheldon, don't send any of your pity my way. As I was careful to say in my initial post, mirroring your own sentiments, I am perfectly happy doing things as I darned well please. I don't consider myself a victim any more than you do. If your values require you to label me a victim, please just keep that to yourself...it means nothing to me. Thanks.
ATLANTIC CENTRALIf you think you are not a "modeler" because you ae not neck deep in copying some "exact" section of some real railroad like some of those "famous" people in the hobby press, then I feel sorry for you as another victum of the hobby press and their "you must do it this way" preaching.
Please, Sheldon, don't send any of your pity my way. As I was careful to say in my initial post, mirroring your own sentiments, I am perfectly happy doing things as I darned well please. I don't consider myself a victim any more than you do. If your values require you to label me a victim, please just keep that to yourself...it means nothing to me.
Thanks.
Crandell, I don't consider you a victim, but I do consider even what you do modeling, so I was puzzled by your choice of words.
Sheldon
cwclarkIf you're gonna do it, then just do it and put it on the market already!....chuck
As I mentioned in a similar thread a couple of days ago, read the Rapido ad on page5 of the April MR, "An Open Letter on the Necessary Evil of Pre-Ordering". This tells the other side of the story.
As I mentined there, a couple of years ago, I got a BLI E7 with QSI sound for more than $100 off list price - did anyone make much profit off that sale??? Not that it makes any difference to me, I do not preorder because can not afford to pay $200 or more for a locomotive, $75 for a passenger car (Rapido) or $50 for a caboose (Atlas) - all HO scale.
George In Midcoast Maine, 'bout halfway up the Rockland branch
CNJ831 Those that peruse other forums will already be aware that over on the Atlas sponsored site that basically the same discussion has now reached 17 pages. What I will add here is that I can only see the current situation, with pre-orders and ever more limited runs, as a death spiral over time instituted by the manufacturers themselves. The tendency seems to be that most, if not all, manufacturers will slip into this strategy over the decade. If manufacturers only produce products on the basis of the number of pre-orders they receive, and without enough solid pre-orders cancel any project (or wait indefinitely for enough pre-orders to accumulate), hobbyists will eventually see an ever more limited number of the models produced and/or ever increasing prices to justify the dwindling runs. This is especially true when one sees how many hobbyists are openly vowing they will never pre-order, sight-unseen, any future models, even though they probably would have bought them if the product were commonly available. So, the situation can go no other way. In the end you have exactly what the brass collecting hobby became over the years: a very limited number of buyers paying astronomical prices for items whose runs amount to a few score units. Transposing that situation to the much broader hobby of model railroading (it's hardly just about collecting) makes our hobby essentially unsustainable as the traditional model railroaders become priced out of the marketplace. IHC is gone, Mantua is gone, and that pretty much leaves Bachmann as the only manufacturer currently producing affordable smaller steamers. Loose them to the pre-order, unlimited pricing craze and it will be game over for much of the hobby. CNJ831
Those that peruse other forums will already be aware that over on the Atlas sponsored site that basically the same discussion has now reached 17 pages.
What I will add here is that I can only see the current situation, with pre-orders and ever more limited runs, as a death spiral over time instituted by the manufacturers themselves. The tendency seems to be that most, if not all, manufacturers will slip into this strategy over the decade.
If manufacturers only produce products on the basis of the number of pre-orders they receive, and without enough solid pre-orders cancel any project (or wait indefinitely for enough pre-orders to accumulate), hobbyists will eventually see an ever more limited number of the models produced and/or ever increasing prices to justify the dwindling runs. This is especially true when one sees how many hobbyists are openly vowing they will never pre-order, sight-unseen, any future models, even though they probably would have bought them if the product were commonly available. So, the situation can go no other way.
In the end you have exactly what the brass collecting hobby became over the years: a very limited number of buyers paying astronomical prices for items whose runs amount to a few score units. Transposing that situation to the much broader hobby of model railroading (it's hardly just about collecting) makes our hobby essentially unsustainable as the traditional model railroaders become priced out of the marketplace. IHC is gone, Mantua is gone, and that pretty much leaves Bachmann as the only manufacturer currently producing affordable smaller steamers. Loose them to the pre-order, unlimited pricing craze and it will be game over for much of the hobby.
CNJ831
People who assume trends will not change are always wrong - at some point.
What it will take to change this trend remains to be seen. But to assume that EVERY manufacturer will "fall" to this and that the hobby is "doomed" has no real basis.
Will this hurt the hobby in the short term? It already has. Will some of these manufacturers fail by virtue of their own doing? I have been saying that for quite a while now.
Will this drive a return to modeling with less high end RTR and less collecting - very possibly.
But the good thing is, just as we have seen for years now, once tooling in invested in in this business, someone always seeems to come along and invest in making "another run" even after the orginal owners are long gone.
So lots of the great product we have seen in the last 20 years will likely be with us in some form for quite a while.
AND, the economy will turn around and someone will take a chance on this or that again.
Still buying Athearn and Bachmann - not buying BLI, or MTH, or other "preorder brands".
G Paine cwclarkIf you're gonna do it, then just do it and put it on the market already!....chuck As I mentioned in a similar thread a couple of days ago, read the Rapido ad on page5 of the April MR, "An Open Letter on the Necessary Evil of Pre-Ordering". This tells the other side of the story. As I mentined there, a couple of years ago, I got a BLI E7 with QSI sound for more than $100 off list price - did anyone make much profit off that sale??? Not that it makes any difference to me, I do not preorder because can not afford to pay $200 or more for a locomotive, $75 for a passenger car (Rapido) or $50 for a caboose (Atlas) - all HO scale.
George, I suspect someone did make a profit from that sale, the question is was it a big enogh one or was it smart marketing?
Published retail prices are meaningless today. They do not represent any sense of established value nor do they control wholesale discount structures like they did in the past.
It is clear from the market prices, at ligitimate retailers like TrainWorld, StarHobby, PeachCreekShops, MB Klein and others over the last 15 years or longer that wholesale prices direct from manufacturers to big retailers are well below what they were "back in the day".
Since it is well established that even volume dealers need at least a 30% margin to survive, and they have survived, we can easily extrapulate the wholesale prices of most products even if we are not privy to such information.
So buying any of serval brands we might choose to discuss at 30%, 40% or even 50% off retail provides no assumption that dealers are loosing money on each sale. In many cases their wholesale price is still well below that level.
The real question is are they doing enough volume to make it on 30% or should they be making 40-45% like in the old days when dealers and manufacturers actually kept inventories on hand for their customers.
In recent years we have all gotten a few closeout deals from those unwilling or unable to hold inventory for future sale, but again, that does not imply that "everyone" is loosing money selling this stuff.
As I pointed out in another recent thread on a similar topic, being able to afford, and choosing to afford are two different things. I choose not to afford lots of things in this hobby - whether I can afford them is a different story.
I do believe that companies like Broadway and MTH who have based their production and distribution model too heavily on the "collector" side of this market are right now getting a big surprise. But that others, like Bachmann and Athearn, will keep plugging right along offering a range of products that appeal to both modelers and collectors.
Those companies understand the more steady nature of the modeler market and know that offering products of interest there will have long term positive effects. Collectors are generally a "flash in the pan", who will not spend at consistant levels their whole lives. Modelers may spend less per year, but will spend their "budget" every year for "decades", if you give them something to buy.
And I agree, I don't buy $75 passenger cars or $50 caboose and most of my locos only cost about $100 (but I do have over 100 of them).
BUT, I am one of those backward hicks who has no use for all this high tech, DCC, sound, and the like, keeping my costs lower.
BLI has already distroyed any sense of value for their products with their product "dumping" policies, I will never buy another piece of BLI at only 20% off knowing that in 6 months the left overs will be 45% off. so no preoders here either.
Screw orders taking too long. I've wanted an SP P-6 4-6-2 for the better part of my adult life and I ain't gettin' any younger. What's taking too long is for some manufacture to announce that they will make a P-6, pre-orders or no pre-orders.
And while we're at it, where's the kit or RTR model of the parlor-buffet car "Oliver Millett"? I don't even think it's been done in brass.
To paraphrase a J.G. Wentworth ad: It's my hobby and I want it NOW!!!
Andre
andrechapelonScrew orders taking too long. I've wanted an SP P-6 4-6-2 for the better part of my adult life and I ain't gettin' any younger. What's taking too long is for some manufacture to announce that they will make a P-6, pre-orders or no pre-orders.
If some manufacturer cranks out 5k or 10k copies of an SP P-6 at a reasonable price I'll do my part and buy two or three, or maybe more, as long as they offer them unlettered.
How many collectors buy two and three of every loco they buy? Lots of "modelers" that I know do.
That roster I posted earlier in this thread, is made up of anywhere from 2-8 copies of almost every item listed. I still say I'm a more profitable customer for a manufacturer than a collector.
mmmmm---Question.
What is the "average" leadtime between pre-order and time of shipping? I've heard that some of these take years but would that be average?
Any argument carried far enough will end up in Semantics--Hartz's law of rhetoric Emerald. Leemer and Southern The route of the Sceptre Express Barry
I just started my blog site...more stuff to come...
http://modeltrainswithmusic.blogspot.ca/
blownout cylinder mmmmm---Question. What is the "average" leadtime between pre-order and time of shipping? I've heard that some of these take years but would that be average?
I think the real lead time question is engineering and tooling, that could easily take a year or longer. Setup, production and shipping is likely in the 3-6 month range.
So are companies like BLI putting only the bare minimum engineering together to develope a cost estimate and then feeling out the market with an announcement?
Obviiously this is not the case with Bachmann and most items from Athearn, Intermountain and others who play the announcements closer to the vest.
And, I'm sure sometimes stuff just goes wrong, causing delays.
ATLANTIC CENTRALHow many collectors buy two and three of every loco they buy? Lots of "modelers" that I know do.
Well then, I guess I'm not a modeler, Sheldon, because I generally only buy one of something. The one exception to that would be my two Trix Mikes.
Do you run them all at the same time? If you're buying 8 copies of something, Sheldon, and only run a couple of them at a time, I see that as "collecting"; whether you choose to run them or not.
Tom
https://tstage9.wixsite.com/nyc-modeling
Time...It marches on...without ever turning around to see if anyone is even keeping in step.
tstage ATLANTIC CENTRALHow many collectors buy two and three of every loco they buy? Lots of "modelers" that I know do. Well then, I guess I'm not a modeler, Sheldon, because I generally only buy one of something. The one exception to that would be my two Trix Mikes. That roster I posted earlier in this thread, is made up of anywhere from 2-8 copies of almost every item listed. I still say I'm a more profitable customer for a manufacturer than a collector. Do you run them all at the same time? If you're buying 8 copies of something, Sheldon, and only run a couple of them at a time, I see that as "collecting"; whether you choose to run them or not. Tom
Tom, I couldn't I agree with you more on this issue. You see, with a layout of my size being in a room of relatively small proportions, it would be difficult for me to attempt to run a truly close to scale miniature railroad in the first place. So why would I want to buy at least 4-5 consolidations in my specific situation? I would buy one because I like the engine, just like I would buy one of any other engine that I desire to run.
Now in my case, I am not trying to mimic truly prototypical operations, a fair share of people feel the same way as I do, we just like to build a somewhat believable representation of maybe a specific railroad, or as Crandell said earlier, maybe of any railroad in general. Guys I have talked to at some hobby shops say they just like to have fun running trains and don't like to get caught up in things that take away from that fun. I'm the same way.
Take Crandell's layout for instance, I don't want to speak for him, because I haven't talked to him specifically about this, but judging from the pics of his beautiful layout, it seems he doesn't mind owning 1 N&W Class J while at the same time owning 1 PRR T1 duplex or a PRR J1, in the past (if I remember correctly) he even stated that, at least at one time, he would have considered buying a UP 9000 4-12-2 because it was such a unique engine (I came aross that post last night in an old thread about MTH's release of that engine). Sounds like the guy just likes to have fun running some rather unique engines of varying road names on an incredibly well crafted layout.
Its his layout, his choices. He has fun with the hobby and thats whats important. He could hardly be considered only a "collector". I'm pretty much the same way, I just call myself a model railroad enthusiast. I like to buy engines that meet my desires for the hobby. I don't have the money to buy many duplicates, or the space for that matter. And prototypical operation isn't my main objective, and to be clear I am not in any way bashing those whose focus is the opposite of mine.
I think we should just drop these labels.
This is an odd scenario. When I went through Woodstock ON's CP yard a few days ago I saw that there was about 3 GP9u's sitting lashed together. If I went with what I see here I'd have to think the prototypes are 'Collectors' as well then.
I don't see where the issue is here with the locomotives myself. I bought a slew of RS's because I want to create a believable/plausible scenario of a shortline operation. According to a lot of publications that was what prototypes did as well. Remember the idea of having a consistant roster? Why would I need a different locomotive everytime I get one? I can see it now. 2-8-0 coupled to an RS2 that is in turn coupled to a GG1. All because someone thinks having 3 of something makes that person a collector---
Look, the last time I checked Sheldon was just saying that he was not interested in buying just any locomotive just because it was a "hot" item. And as for the collector element---let us imagine that the critter we are referring to is not having a layout and is only interested in the locomotives themselves as a static display. That was the idea of a "collector" to begin with
sheeesh
Very interesting responses. However I believe all the OP was stating was that when a company offers a product be it presented as "available" or "advance", they should provide their product in a timely manner. In this case he obviously pre- ordered. they stated a production, or release date and they have both come and gone with, what sounds like, no explanation. Just haven't got it yet. If they had said release date is "early, or first part of 2010", or "sometime in 2010 or 2011", then there wouldn't be an issue for several reasons. But they didn't. They said January 2010, or whatever month. IF you had a Roofer, the only one you can choose, schedule you for June to replace or do some work on your roof and come September still hadn't shown. You'd be a bit upset too. Apples to Oranges? Yes a roof is a bit more than a model, however the concept is the same. When you say this is available, or will be available in January, it should be. If for some reason it can't be then, they have your name, you "reserved yours", then they should at least have the courtesy to inform you of the status.
Aggravating for sure, but I don't see how to change it. The only thing would be to ball up and say you're not paying because they broke the "contract" by not supplying the product when stated. But that wouldn't hurt the manufacturer, because you didn't order through them, you order through a hobby shop and they get stuck with it. The manufacturer still gets paid for every item produced whether it ever hits a consumers hand or not. Unless you could get the hobby shops to fight with their bloodlines, they're the only folks you'd hurt.
Todd
Central Illinoyz
In order to keep my position as Master and Supreme Ruler of the House, I don't argue with my wife.
I'm a small town boy. A product of two people from even smaller towns. I don’t talk on topic….. I just talk.
tstageDo you run them all at the same time? If you're buying 8 copies of something, Sheldon, and only run a couple of them at a time, I see that as "collecting"; whether you choose to run them or not.
Tom,
The layout is designed to hold about 20 staged trains. Many on the steam powered trains require double headers, a few of the them (pulled by consolidations) require tripple headers. Most all of the diesel powered trains are pulled by multiple unit lash ups of 3-4 units, sometimes more.
In display mode the layout allows for 5 unattended "display" trains to run at once. Durring an operating session it supports the movements of 8 crews.
The rest of the locos are in the engine terminal making a realistic scene of a working railroad, not a hodge poge museum scene. AND, they are switched on and off trains just like the prototype.
Start doing the math, my 100 plus locos, with many duplicates, just barely covers the schedule for an operating session.
The whole idea is realism. Every picture I have ever seem of a large steam egine terminal had lots of duplicates of the same classes of locos sitting around waiting to be services or waiting for assignments.
The layout is set in 1954 so diesels are small first generation, it tooks lots of units to pull one train. Train lengths are typically 30-40 cars on freights. Grades are 1.5%
The layout has an 8 scale mile long double track mainline, a 20' long yard, hidden staging, large engine terminal, large passenger terminal, industrial areas, and a branch line. It fills an 800 sq ft room on two levels. 100 locomotives is not collecting, its a minimum roster.
I will bet Ken McCory has a lot more locos than me, and a lot more duplicates than me, just to cover his schedules - collecting - I don't think so.
ATLANTIC CENTRAL CNJ831 Those that peruse other forums will already be aware that over on the Atlas sponsored site that basically the same discussion has now reached 17 pages. What I will add here is that I can only see the current situation, with pre-orders and ever more limited runs, as a death spiral over time instituted by the manufacturers themselves. The tendency seems to be that most, if not all, manufacturers will slip into this strategy over the decade. If manufacturers only produce products on the basis of the number of pre-orders they receive, and without enough solid pre-orders cancel any project (or wait indefinitely for enough pre-orders to accumulate), hobbyists will eventually see an ever more limited number of the models produced and/or ever increasing prices to justify the dwindling runs. This is especially true when one sees how many hobbyists are openly vowing they will never pre-order, sight-unseen, any future models, even though they probably would have bought them if the product were commonly available. So, the situation can go no other way. In the end you have exactly what the brass collecting hobby became over the years: a very limited number of buyers paying astronomical prices for items whose runs amount to a few score units. Transposing that situation to the much broader hobby of model railroading (it's hardly just about collecting) makes our hobby essentially unsustainable as the traditional model railroaders become priced out of the marketplace. IHC is gone, Mantua is gone, and that pretty much leaves Bachmann as the only manufacturer currently producing affordable smaller steamers. Loose them to the pre-order, unlimited pricing craze and it will be game over for much of the hobby. CNJ831 People who assume trends will not change are always wrong - at some point. What it will take to change this trend remains to be seen. But to assume that EVERY manufacturer will "fall" to this and that the hobby is "doomed" has no real basis. Will this hurt the hobby in the short term? It already has. Will some of these manufacturers fail by virtue of their own doing? I have been saying that for quite a while now. Will this drive a return to modeling with less high end RTR and less collecting - very possibly.
Sheldon - While I quite agree that in many cases trends alone cannot be used blindly to predict the future, the current situation with our hobby has already been played out virtually to conclusion by an actual branch of the hobby, offering much more solid ground to stand on and from which to prognosticate.
The brass segment of the hobby has gone down precisely the same road that the plastic/die cast portion is travelling today...except that it took brass more than 40 years to cover about the same amount of ground our segment of the hobby has covered in just ten! Brass locomotives went from a marginally more expensive than die cast items, produced in fairly large runs, and maintained in stock by a number of the importers...to much more expensive, higher detail quality, and available for a fairly limited time only...to pre-order, very limited numbers, with astronomical prices. Concurrent with that, participation in that area of the hobby shrank to the point where few hobbyists today express any interest in new brass. In contrast, once upon a time, nearly half of all hobbyists owned at least one piece of brass motive power, or rolling stock.
Nothing, or no one, seriously came along to rescue the brass trade, or divert it and bring it back to a sensible plateau to serve a major portion of hobbyists. The few remaining importers today feel it better serves them to do very small runs of extreme high-end items, caterring to just a tiny segment of hobbyists. That being so, I consider the potential for an opposite outcome with our increasingly expensive and pre-order mania highly unlikely, as it seems the same mentallity is driving it.
tstage Do you run them all at the same time? If you're buying 8 copies of something, Sheldon, and only run a couple of them at a time, I see that as "collecting"; whether you choose to run them or not. Tom
Tom:
OUCH, LOL!!
Though I don't have quite Sheldon's large roster (or his layout, either, darn it!), I've got doubles, triples and in one case, quadruples of the same steamer on the Yuba River Sub. And I occasionally WILL use quite a few of them in an Ops session, especially coupled together as main and helpers if I've gotten brave enough to run a couple of 'scenery-busters' (40+cars or so) over The Pass.
Usually, if I'm running two trains at once (on DC, yet! ), I'll have about four or five locos in operation at that time with another two or three waiting in the yard to either change out or add on. The Sub is designed so that there is a loco change-over point between 'Valley' and 'Mountain' power at Deer Creek yards, which has a 2.2% eastbound grade immediately out of the yard limits. On a hefty freight that is NOT headed by one of my big articulateds, the usual lash-up is a couple of 4-8-2's at the head, and a couple of 2-8-2's pushing. All duplicates of the same loco series.
So yes, I've 'collected' quite a few duplicates, but it's to eventually 'run' all of them. If not in a single Ops session (that would be kind of exhausting for a 'Lone Wolf' like me), at least over a period of time.
But this is my particular case, and not necessarily anyone else's.
But to get back on track about the length of orders--I usually order through my LHS either here or in nearby Roseville. And then I learn to get patient, because if THEY can't get them right away, I figure that there's really none to be got at the present time.
Right now, I'm patiently waiting for the Walthers "City" cars to dribble in so that my City Of San Francisco BLI E-6's can have a decent train to pull. Hopefully it'll happen while I still have some hair left.
Tom View my layout photos! http://s299.photobucket.com/albums/mm310/TWhite-014/Rio%20Grande%20Yuba%20River%20Sub One can NEVER have too many Articulateds!
blownout cylinderWe seem to have thrown out any concept of manufacturing that has anything to do with inventory and replaced it with what some would say is a miserly method of mfg. All because it costs $$$$ to hold it. Then guys like me come along and WE get told WE are paranoid when in fact the mfg's put out that it does cost them $$$$!!!
Well, I'm willing to throw myself on that grenade.... If it will help the modeling community, I'll be happy to "hold-on to the excess inventory". And I'll even assist in the "quality control" effort to verify that it rolls well, the couplers work, and that it looks good sitting and running on the layout. Its the absolute least I can do.
CNJ831Nothing, or no one, seriously came along to rescue the brass trade, or divert it and bring it back to a sensible plateau to serve a major portion of hobbyists. The few remaining importers today feel it better serves them to do very small runs of extreme high-end items, caterring to just a tiny segment of hobbyists. That being so, I consider the potential for an opposite outcome with our increasingly expensive and pre-order mania, highly unlikely, as it seems the same mentallity is driving it.
Having been in this hobby for 40 years, and having worked in hobby shops, I don't disagree, but I don't completely agree about your view of brass in the past. For me, and a great many modelers I know or have known, buyers of brass have always been an minority group willing to pay hgher prices.
Sure some of the modelers I know have some brass, which they run, because it was the only way to get approperate models. But now those same modelers have two or three Bachmann 2-8-0's, or two or three Bachmann shays, in addition to their brass examples.
Me personally, I only have 1 and 1/2 pieces of brass. One PFM USRA light Pacific and on Oriental Limited Powerhouse USRA light Pacific. Both bought used and cheap and both now sporting plastic tenders. Before the modern well detailed diecast and plastic steam of today, my steam power was Mantua kits super detailed by me.
Brass may have been somewhat "affortable" just before I got into the hobby in the late 50's or early 60's, but by my time in the late 60's it was way out of my reach.
Now it is simply out of my sense of value. No HO model train locomotive is worth 4 figures, few, if any, are even worth $500 to me.
I pose this question - what has been better for the hobby and better for the manufactrurer?
The Bachmann 2-8-0 or the BLI Big Boy. ( I can count 30 or 40 Spectrum 2-8-0's among modelers I hang out with, only about 3 Big Boys of any brand)
I'll bet $100 to a doughnut Bachmann has made more money on 2-8-0's than any three BLI pieces made yet.
And we are loosing sleep over when the next pre-order wonder will show up?
Not me, I'm going to Peach Creek next week to get the latest Bachmann 2-6-6-2 release, another 2-8-0 for another kitbashing project and 3 more 2-8-4's to convert into 3 more super power Mikados.
Maybe if the manufacturer pool shrinks a little, and thereby ending all this duplication of effort, the remaining manufacturers will do well enough to actually invest in INVENTORY and in new products which might EXPAND the market rather than divide the market (which is what happens when 5 compaines all do UP Big Boys).
Notice how Bachmann has very little overlap with other brands? Athearn too tries to avoid duplicating the efforts of others (except on items they had first). Before Walthers notice how Life Like stayed away from EMD F units because Athearn, Stewart and Intermountain had it covered?
Everybody making the same things has hurt the hobby and I believe is largely responsible for these problems. So if, as you suggest, production run sizes are shrinking, could be too much competition on the same items rather than lack of demand?
So maybe the market research and preorder system is flawed, Maybe manufacturers using the preorder model are being driven by a vocal minority, not by the majortiy or by what the majority does buy or would buy if it showed up. Maybe those willing to preorder a BLI loco are not really much different than those willing to preorder a $1200 piece of brass - maybe the preorder customer is not the mainstream and the manufacturers are missing the boat big time by not taking any risks to bring different items to the market.
On this forum, dozens of times, you have read the long lists of products many say they would buy if they showed up - yet we keep getting more of the same and the manufacturers seem to indicate no one is buying - makes no sense.
twhiteUsually, if I'm running two trains at once (on DC, yet! ), I'll have about four or five locos in operation at that time with another two or three waiting in the yard to either change out or add on. The Sub is designed so that there is a loco change-over point between 'Valley' and 'Mountain' power at Deer Creek yards, which has a 2.2% eastbound grade immediately out of the yard limits. On a hefty freight that is NOT headed by one of my big articulateds, the usual lash-up is a couple of 4-8-2's at the head, and a couple of 2-8-2's pushing. All duplicates of the same loco series.
And as we all know, mine are DC as well. Imagine that, 8 trains moving at once on the same layout with DC (but it does take 8 operators).
I also highly recommend MB Klein. I have ordered several times from them and had prompt service.
Over the years I have also mail ordered from a few others with good results. I stick with reputable/reliable dealers who have been around for a while.
But most of my buying is done at train shows. I prefer to see it first and then buy it.
Enjoy
Paul
ATLANTIC CENTRAL twhiteUsually, if I'm running two trains at once (on DC, yet! ), I'll have about four or five locos in operation at that time with another two or three waiting in the yard to either change out or add on. The Sub is designed so that there is a loco change-over point between 'Valley' and 'Mountain' power at Deer Creek yards, which has a 2.2% eastbound grade immediately out of the yard limits. On a hefty freight that is NOT headed by one of my big articulateds, the usual lash-up is a couple of 4-8-2's at the head, and a couple of 2-8-2's pushing. All duplicates of the same loco series. And as we all know, mine are DC as well. Imagine that, 8 trains moving at once on the same layout with DC (but it does take 8 operators). Sheldon
My Grain Trains usually end up with 3 RS11's at the point. They depart from Thompson Mill Bridge yard to return back to Williston yard Interchange. My little commuter line has a series of RDC's 1 and 2 as well. Sometimes when we are in the middle of high season here the line'll end up with 3 trains running at the same time. And on a shortline that is plenty busy ----
blownout cylinder My Grain Trains usually end up with 3 RS11's at the point. They depart from Thompson Mill Bridge yard to return back to Williston yard Interchange. My little commuter line has a series of RDC's 1 and 2 as well. Sometimes when we are in the middle of high season here the line'll end up with 3 trains running at the same time. And on a shortline that is plenty busy ----
Barry:
Not to derail the subject of length of special orders, but you bring up a very good point about railroad operation--the seasonal 'rushes' that allow you to utilize a great deal of your motive power at once.
In my case, it's the California Perishable season, which usually started in mid-summer to late October. Since my layout is laid in October of any year between 1939-1952, this gives me a chance to run any number of perishable 'extras', which because of their 'expedited' nature require fast locos on the 'Valley' runs and powerful, more 'modern' articulateds on the 'Mountain' portion. Which, of course, allows me to use my Challengers, more modern 2-8-8-2's and Yellowstones to their maximum.
And I'm sure that a grain season rush even on a short line would call out all available motive power for the number of 'extras' that have to be scheduled.
IMO, 'seasonal' running makes for some really EXCITING Ops sessions, especially when you have to schedule the 'extras' around the regular traffic.
That's when even Uff-Dah and Spooky don their little engineers hats, LOL!
I can also recommend MB Klein, used them quite a bit when I modeled standard gauge railroads. Now I am in to narrow gauge and till Blackstone or someone else offers C&S or something other than D&RGW HOn3 stuff, my dollers go toward vintage kits and older brass imports for locomotives. I grew up as brass shot upwards out of hand price wise for the average modeler that desired brass engines. I see much of the same today, but in the plastic/diecast segment. Model trains are fast becoming a hobby of the upper classes if you look at whats new on the market to someone that is just getting started and isnt aware of how to "play" the market to find the same model much cheaper. I remember cheap Athearn F units, GP38-2's when those hit the market about the time I hit my teenage years. And I still have my stack of PFM catalogs I picked up at train shows over the years. I wanted some of those models the way some want the newest from BLI ect today, and pout over the high cost of those models. Took me till my late teens to own my first piece of brass, and it was a much older model from the 60's. I like many hate the limited runs, long waits for models that may or may not see the light of day. I do the repair work for the local hobby shop and get to see many of the preorder lists and watch the price increases for models from year to year. Its not getting any better, some of the newest runs of northeastern style cabooses from Athearn are now up close to $30! For a caboose! Trains, much like everything else in our economy are going up price wise. Where will it end, will we yet find a breaking point where modelers nolonger can afford to purchase items, thus causing even more limited runs and driving prices up even further. The high prices in tremendous inflation in the countries that produced the fine brass models imported thru the "golden years" cause some of the largest importers to close up shop including the great PFM that so many loved over the years. Now we are seeing the same effect on the rest of the hobby, but at a much faster rate. When inflation makes model train production unaffordable in China, then what? Till then all we can do is ride it out, do our best to aquire and afford the models we want and hope better times are not far away. Keep it fun guys, its only a hobby. Cheers Mikie
LHS mechanic and geniune train and antique garden tractor nut case!
twhite In my case, it's the California Perishable season, which usually started in mid-summer to late October. Since my layout is laid in October of any year between 1939-1952, this gives me a chance to run any number of perishable 'extras', which because of their 'expedited' nature require fast locos on the 'Valley' runs and powerful, more 'modern' articulateds on the 'Mountain' portion. Tom
In my case, it's the California Perishable season, which usually started in mid-summer to late October. Since my layout is laid in October of any year between 1939-1952, this gives me a chance to run any number of perishable 'extras', which because of their 'expedited' nature require fast locos on the 'Valley' runs and powerful, more 'modern' articulateds on the 'Mountain' portion.
AH HA!!!! So it's your fault I never had enough fresh fruit as a kid. It was all rotton by the time it got up here to the Great White North.
Brent
"All of the world's problems are the result of the difference between how we think and how the world works."
Don't pre order! Force the manufacturer to produce an item and put it on the market. All your doing by pre ordering is removing the element of risk for the manufactures. "Everyone want's one. Good, we'll make it when we get around to it. Not enough intrest, then we don't make it. Sorry all people who pre ordered better luck next time". Can't you see they are using you for there own market research (and not even cutting you a check for it). Make them earn your business, by fourcing them to do a little research for themselves and putting out a product based on there results. That's what will keep the good companies around and rid the industry of trend followers and free riders.
"I GUESS WHAT I'M TRYING TO SAY, IS YOU ARE THE CUSTOMER, MAKE THEM EARN YOUR BUSINESS, NOT TELL YOU WHAT YOU WILL GET WHEN THEY FEEL LIKE GIVING IT TO YOU! BELEIVE ME WHEN THERE BOTTOM LINE STARTS DROPPING THEY'LL START WORKING FOR YOUR BUSINESS RATHER THAN JUST EXSPECTING IT!
It's called CAPITALISM, still the greatest system in the world, "USE IT"!
nyflyerDon't pre order! Force the manufacturer to produce an item and put it on the market. All your doing by pre ordering is removing the element of risk for the manufactures. "Everyone want's one. Good, we'll make it when we get around to it. Not enough intrest, then we don't make it. Sorry all people who pre ordered better luck next time". Can't you see they are using you for there own market research (and not even cutting you a check for it). Make them earn your business, by fourcing them to do a little research for themselves and putting out a product based on there results. That's what will keep the good companies around and rid the industry of trend followers and free riders. "I GUESS WHAT I'M TRYING TO SAY, IS YOU ARE THE CUSTOMER, MAKE THEM EARN YOUR BUSINESS, NOT TELL YOU WHAT YOU WILL GET WHEN THEY FEEL LIKE GIVING IT TO YOU! BELEIVE ME WHEN THERE BOTTOM LINE STARTS DROPPING THEY'LL START WORKING FOR YOUR BUSINESS RATHER THAN JUST EXSPECTING IT! It's called CAPITALISM, still the greatest system in the world, "USE IT"!
I totally agree
I never have preordered any thing and don't think I ever will because I don't want to pay
a year in advance for anything
The recent release of Bachmann's C&O H-4 is a good example
My friend Art ordered one thru the COHS when they were first anounced
and of course they charged his credit card After a long wait and another 6 month delay
after their scheduled arrival they finally made it to the US
Why tie up your money that long ?
TerryinTexas
See my Web Site Here
http://conewriversubdivision.yolasite.com/
Problem is, even by using us as a free market research tool, they still dont get it. How many copies of the UP Big Boys and a gaggle of F units do we really need on the market. The "I can make it better than X company" is really getting old in my book. Also keep in mind that during the heyday of brass, it was the only medium to produce models of that caliber. Plastic injection molding and diecasting just wasnt up to that level yet like it is now. I read in interview with the gentleman running PFM in the late 70's about the rising cost of brass models and his take on things. He basicly said that PFM was working hard to keep costs down so that the average modeler that desired one of thier models, could afford to have atleast one example on thier model railroad. Even then they were not cheap if you take into account the average income back then. But now brass is out of site price wise due to Limited Runs, along with material cost increases ect. Gee look what we have now, Limited Runs in other mediums and rising prices. Anybody remember when Bachmann took like 3-4 years to get the first Spectrum Dash 8-40C's to market. They are much better now, either waiting till the arrival time gets close or not saying much at all like in the case of the recent GP7's. With hobby budgets on life support for many modelers for the near future, I dont think we have seen the worst of Limited Runs, delayed models or ones announced then put on hold or never made. I think by not preordering, things would only get much worse in the short term, maybe in the long term as well. That approach is filled with unknowns on our end, known only to the big wigs running these model companies. I will say with the advent of internet, ebay, e-retailers and your LHS, finding most any model isnt to difficult even long after the release date. If you missed the inital release or couldnt afford it, camp out on ebay, scour online shops and attend train shows, the model will turn up and the hunt is half the fun most of the time. Now this all works if the companies will produce the models. Weather issues during the winter months can delay things. The Olympics in China a couple years ago slowed things down as factorys normaly producing trains, put those on hold to make Olympic items. Also these new engines, loaded with features are more prone to engineering issues that might crop up as production ramps up, shutting it back down to solve issues. Until things improve, enjoy what you have, take a breath and relax, its only a hobby and not supposed to be stressfull. I myself get more fustrated at the job market that leaves me layed off each winter, then I cannot afford to buy the models I want, when I want them the most. So I stock up on my craftsman kits I enjoy so much, keeps me busy during the long cold winter with little to no outlay in money, no waiting on models to be released. The only problem is when I run out of glue! Cheers Mike
You are totally correct, but forgot that it cuts both ways. You want the manufacturer to take all the risk. Risk has a price tag associated with it. If you ever worked in contracting, you know that getting a contractor to agree to a fixed price contract usually results in a higher final price than a Time and Materials contract because the contractor has to price risk into his costs. The more risk in the service or product he has to provide, the higher the price must be. On a Time and Materials contract, the buyer assumes the risk, but also profits from a reduced price if the buyer manages the risk for the vendor.
On the supplier side, not many folks know how to price risk properly. Most contractors and businesses assume all will go well, and price accordingly. Actually, things rarely go well so the contractor starts losing money. To make up the losses, he over-prices the inevitable change orders after the customer is locked in. Or he over-prices follow-on support or maintenance work or parts. Or he cuts corners to cut costs. Or he eats his loss. Or he quits before the contract is finished, and doesn't deliver.
The problem for the contractor/business who prices risk properly is that he is seen as the high-priced, but high quality supplier.
Applied to the model railroading business, risk translates into lack of sales. A manufacturer is at risk for 1) a bad reputation because of poor design, poor quality control, or poor prototype fidelity; 2) over production; 3) bad reputation due to late delivery, under-cutting dealers to blow out remaining stock, or under-cutting prices paid by the 1st round buyers. Notice that 2 of the 3 problems cited in #3 can be fixed by fixing #2.
NY Flyer's post assumes that the mr manufacturers behave like other large corporations - their primary drive is to stay in business. Model railroad manufacturing - for the most part - is not totally profit driven. Most are single owner, privately or family owned businesses. Their need for profit depends on individual circumstances and is not driven by Wall Street expectations or stock holders. Usually, the items that are produced are oriented around the business owners' personal desires, not maximizing profitability.
The fallout of the differences is that model railroad businesses bail (go out of business) when they can't foresee a viable business model, or key people lose interest, lose their health, and/or get tired of whining customers.
As for market research, it's unaffordable, and results are going to be less than rewarding. To keep one guy on payroll traveling the country doing research is at least $100K a year (probably twice that). If I produce 10,000 widgets a year based on that research, I've added at least $20 per widget at retail. And who does my researcher talk to? People at shows, people at meets, and he reads the hobby media. All who have agendas and very seldom represent the 50% of the market who are lone wolves or who don't go to shows or post in the forums. Why do dealers stock a lot of product you are not interested in, and wouldn't touch under any circumstances? Because it sells, and there are a lot of modelers not like you. A typical LHS stocks at least 20,000 different items, and I might have an interest in 200 of them if I had an unlimited budget.
My bottom line take: I agree. If you really dislike pre-orders and delayed product arrival, don't buy from the manufacturers that are guilty of those practices. Buy from those who don't take pre-orders and who don't announce their product until it arrives. But be prepared for higher prices. And it still may sell out before you read the advertisements or visit your LHS.
OTOH, if you are willing to pre-order or invest in a reputable manufacturer, and put up with the inevitable delays when things go wrong, you can get an item you really want in your hands a lot sooner, and possibly at a lower price if he doesn't over produce.
my thoughts, your choices
Fred W
The guys selling you engines are big boys in and of themselves. They'll run their businesses or run them into the ground. Building a bunch of 4-8-4's in metal with decoders and sound when there is only a weak market is plain stupid...period. I would much rather they do their homework and plunk bucks where they know they'll get a hefty return, and then be solvent to stick around for round two. We have a fully subscribed Q2...where? Gone. Second round of Y6b's where? Gone. How're the 2-10-0's doing from BLI? I suspect they're becoming scarce, even if some had to be discounted to keep them moving.
Nope, I won't be forcing the manufacturers to do anything silly, like to fill warehouses with goods valued at 2010 dollars and hope to move much of it when 8 years are past, taking in money valued where the dollar will be in 2018. Instead, I'll continue to take up FDT on their very heavy 1 cent deposit, as I did on the Q2. If the engine doesn't materialize, I will move on, just as FDT will. I won't gnash my teeth, tear out my hair, threaten to hold my breath until I die, or any other wastes of my time.
Mind you, I could learn to make my own engines. In fact, I'd pretty much have to if BLI went belly up.
-Crandell
nyflyer:
As a rant, that may sound good. Unfortunately, there's a fly in that particular ointment. It's the capitalist who gets to make the determination of what's manufactured, when and under what conditions a good or service is offered.
Given that the manufacturers are the capitalists, not the customers, it is they who get determine what they will produce and how much. You certainly have the right not to participate in the current MR market as a customer, and maybe that will work if enough people stop particpating and the manufacturers realize they're losing business. However, they're the capitalists and it's their capital at risk. The only choice you have is to buy or not to buy with or without complaint.
Personally, I wouldn't mind pre-ordering if the mfgs produce something I actually want badly enough. So far they haven't, so I'm a non-participant, just like I'm a non-participant in the market for luxury cars, McMansions, corporate jets, etc.
fwright...OTOH, if you are willing to pre-order or invest in a reputable manufacturer, and put up with the inevitable delays when things go wrong, you can get an item you really want in your hands a lot sooner, and possibly at a lower price if he doesn't over produce.my thoughts, your choicesFred W
The 3 things I have pre-ordered were items I really wanted and could afford. The manufacturer/importers were reputable firms. I also was willing to wait the 6 months to a year to get them. Plus I got discount on the price.
I have a short list of other things I would be willing to pre-order should they become available, but otherwise I wait until they are actually in stock, preferably at a train show where I can actually see them.
Truth be told I have enough stuff to keep me going for years.