Hi guys,
It's getting to the point that mail ordering is a crap shoot to say the least now days. I remember a time when you placed an order and got it within 5 days and within 6 weeks if it had to be back ordered. Now days, it's anyone's guess when an item will be available, if ever.
I placed an order for the new Atlas GP40-2 in SP paint that was supposed to come out in December of last year. I've checked my porch everyday for a package and guess what? Still no boxes and no Geep. The same applies to a couple of Walthers Budd SP passenger cars that I ordered over a year ago.
I wish these companies would do a whole lot better when they announce a product and get it to market a bit faster. They now make limited runs on a product and it may be years before they will do the same run again. The way they produce our modeling products now-a-days is a wonder why anyone can stay in the hobby. It's getting harder and harder to get products unless you get your name on a list before they produce it if they run the product at all, and heaven help us if anyone else may come along later that may want the same product. Good luck trying to find it a year later after the production run.
I've heard stories from: they don't have enough requests to produced it yet to how it's getting harder to get the products from overseas, but the bottom line is; if they offer a product, they should deliver it in a more timely manner.
It's a wonder we can put a layout together with all the time delays it takes to get the products we need for our layouts to market because the companies are so scared that they may have a surplus on their hands if they produce more than the initial "names on their lists." Don't they know that eventually someone will purchase it if they over do a production run? It really p-----'s me off. chuck
Did you order from a place like M.B. Klein or Trainworld that lists actual inventory, or one of those re-shippers who have little inventory, but will order something from Walthers, etc., and then re-ship it to you after they get it?
If Walthers shows something as out-of-stock and nobody else seems to have it, that ad that shows it "available" from RipoffTrainsUnlimited is likely to result in nothing but frustration.
It takes an iron man to play with a toy iron horse.
---must be time for one of these threads again.
All I can say is that the general practice is pre-order, limited production counts, on a small number of locomotives. If it takes 3-5 years so be it.
Not a really healthy way of doing business but there we are. We are in strictly survival mode here and that is what it is. Until we think about GROWING a market that is----
----and yeah. If one sees the limited production count as a "reaction" to the idea of carrying inventory, it is that. The paranoia about excess inventory does drive SOME of this but I do think there is a lot of issues out there---
Any argument carried far enough will end up in Semantics--Hartz's law of rhetoric Emerald. Leemer and Southern The route of the Sceptre Express Barry
I just started my blog site...more stuff to come...
http://modeltrainswithmusic.blogspot.ca/
Looking at it from a more practical standpoint: How old are you? And you've lived that long without Product X? Are you going to die if you can't get Product X right away - or ever?
cacole Looking at it from a more practical standpoint: How old are you? And you've lived that long without Product X? Are you going to die if you can't get Product X right away - or ever?
Interesting comment
The single biggest change that i noticed after a 20 year absence from the hobby
Wasn't DCC it was Supply Demand Production
The whole preorder Thing
Which is a constant source of frustration to many modelers
So will i die if i don't get product X today
No ! But each of us has less time than we think! As i type this a fellow
modeler here in Houston is now laying in the hospital from a stroke
so in that sense it would be nice if the MFGs would keep to thier
delivery promises so we get to play with product X before our own trip to the Hospital !
TerryinTexas
See my Web Site Here
http://conewriversubdivision.yolasite.com/
I have worked for a major mail order dealer. I also have ordered from just about every major train shop in the country over the last 20 years.
Guess what--the only place I know of that actually has the product in stock is M.B. Klein (unless you want to pay typically much closer to retail price and order directly from Walthers).
www.modeltrainstuff.com
Their inventory is real-time updated. ie. As soon as you place an order, the available quantity decreases by the number of the item that you ordered.
Nobody else that I'm aware of, including my former employer, offers real time inventory updates.
I guarantee you that even my former employer is a "re-shipper". They advertise items for sale that they can get from a distributor in about 2 days. Sure--they still have plenty of items in stock--but they do not have everything. Even Walthers doesn't have "everything" but is out of stock on plenty of items.
M.B. Klein is the only discount retailer that honestly shows you exactly what they have in stock, 24 hours per day. In the rare event the inventory is off (happened once), they called me to offer me another road number of the same passenger car. Also, depending on your order time and date and how busy they are, you still might have to wait a couple days to get your order--but they usually deliver in less than 5 days. (usually 2 days to me, but I'm only 90 miles away).
Respectfully submitted--
John
We are spoiled, folks! We get really adamant about having our dreams not come true the moment we voice them, i.e place our order. In the good old pre-internet times, we send an order form by snail mail, arriving two or three days later. It took a week or so to process the order and a couple of days for the merchandise to arrive. So total time was up to three weeks and sometimes even longer. And that was a short time, since most business kept stock, for which we paid.
The internet made communication faster, but not necessarily product availability. It enabled businesses to reduce working capital and to install make-to-order processes, which, in turn, did not shorten the time span we have to wait at all
We have to learn to relax a little and take things easier - after all, waiting for the goodies to come can be part of the fun!
Before the wall came down, people in the East of Germany had to wait 18 years to take delivery of one of those plastic cars called Trabant. Now THAT was a bit long!
I ordered 10 passenger cars at my local dealer 2 months ago when they were on sale for 15.00 a piece.....only 1 car came in......I`m just waiting to see the rest of them come in 6 months from now and Walthers tries to SCREW me for full price......they are well known for that.
Although if I get a casting kit or three from Micro-Mark I could just make my own copies......TAKE THAT WALTHERS.
Dennis Blank Jr.
CEO,COO,CFO,CMO,Bossman,Slavedriver,Engineer,Trackforeman,Grunt. Birdsboro & Reading Railroad
rdgk1se3019 I ordered 10 passenger cars at my local dealer 2 months ago when they were on sale for 15.00 a piece.....only 1 car came in......
Were those IHC cars? Don't hold your breath; IHC closed last fall. I recently asked MR if they knew anything on IHC's status, and that had heard nothing.
George In Midcoast Maine, 'bout halfway up the Rockland branch
cwclark Hi guys, It's getting to the point that mail ordering is a crap shoot to say the least now days. I remember a time when you placed an order and got it within 5 days and within 6 weeks if it had to be back ordered.
It's getting to the point that mail ordering is a crap shoot to say the least now days. I remember a time when you placed an order and got it within 5 days and within 6 weeks if it had to be back ordered.
Much of this is a repeat of previous threads. The assessment of the old days is not really true. Production of hobby items has always been a batch process. Demand is not unlimited, so production has to be limited. Suppliers for out-sourced parts - motors, gears, wheels, etc., have minimum orders or minimum economic orders which impact the size of the production run. Tooling and tools have to be refurbished after producing so many of an item. Athearn and the brass importers were the most obvious example of batch production in the old days.
The difference was the distribution chain and the quantity of a batch. In the "good old days", there was TWO major producers of HO plastic diesel models (not counting the toy lines of Tyco and Life-Like) - Athearn and Rivarossi. Athearn introduced maybe one or two new models a year. Because of the limited competition for new model sales production runs could be larger and still sell fairly well. Price competition wasn't quite as fierce; an LHS could hold its own at full retail against the mail order houses.
Distributors bought the manufacturer's output, and then sold the stock to dealers. So there were two levels of stocking for a given item - the dealer and the distributor. When the dealer sold out, he would tap the distributor's stock.
Nowadays, manufacturers sell direct to retailers, bypassing the distributor for most of the larger dealers. This enables the dealer to sell at a lower price - but there is no backup stock when the dealer sells out. If you are willing to pay full price through the small LHS/distributor model, you sometimes have a better chance of finding stock that is gathering dust. But the distributors have cut back their orders and stock because of the direct to large dealer model undercutting their business model.
This is a separate problem that is not really related to the distribution chain. Several year delays were not uncommon for importers even in the golden '60s and '70s. One MR cartoon in the '60s had an importer saying now that they had been announcing a particular model for a year, it was perhaps time to design it and have it produced.
Model railroad importing is a capital-intensive business being conducted by mostly capital-poor importers. The actual manufacturer wants to be paid for the pre-production models and tooling before production actually starts. And he may ask for money for the out-sourced parts up front, as well. Then he wants payment when the production batch is put on the ship. Note that the importer has no income at this point unless there are some paid pre-orders. The importer finally gets his money to repay investors or loans when the batch is sold.
There are only 2-3 companies in China with the know-how and skill and labor force to produce reasonably good locomotives at a reasonable price. A given importer has to reserve a time slot for his particular production (unless you are Bachmann, which is owned by the manufacturer Kader). Miss getting everything ready in time for your slot, and you have to reschedule another one months down the road. Or something goes wrong on the line for the previous production run, and you have to accept the delay that had nothing to do with your production.
I wish these companies would do a whole lot better when they announce a product and get it to market a bit faster. They now make limited runs on a product and it may be years before they will do the same run again. The way they produce our modeling products now-a-days is a wonder why anyone can stay in the hobby. It's getting harder and harder to get products unless you get your name on a list before they produce it if they run the product at all, and heaven help us if anyone else may come along later that may want the same product. Good luck trying to find it a year later after the production run. I've heard stories from: they don't have enough requests to produced it yet to how it's getting harder to get the products from overseas, but the bottom line is; if they offer a product, they should deliver it in a more timely manner. It's a wonder we can put a layout together with all the time delays it takes to get the products we need for our layouts to market because the companies are so scared that they may have a surplus on their hands if they produce more than the initial "names on their lists." Don't they know that eventually someone will purchase it if they over do a production run? It really p-----'s me off. chuck
Production runs are getting smaller. Why? How many locomotives are you willing to buy in a given year? There are only so many model railroaders buying so many locomotives (the same is true of passenger cars). With Atlas, Stewart, Kato, MTH, Athearn, Rapido (new), and Walters all competing for the same plastic diesel model $$ with many more different models than were available in the past, the sales of a given model are going to be less than in the past when there were fewer choices.
The amortization of tooling over smaller production runs and Chinese inflation are leading to price inflation - which reduces the number of sales, which reduces the size of the production run, which increases tooling amortization costs, and so on.
We're all awfully free with Other People's Money (OPM). Why don't you invest your hard-earned money in producing a new model for the rest of us. Tell me how much you are willing to invest of your money in producing extra units for the spontaneous sales. And consider how much of a loss you will take if you have to blow the extras out at less than cost to Island Trains, FDT, or the other large Internet retailers because the spontaneous sales at the higher price never materialized.
No importer wants to be late delivering their product. But no importer in these competitive times can afford to deliver an on-time dud or a model that just doesn't appeal. Just as you don't want (or can't afford) to pay full retail, the importer doesn't want (or can't afford) to lose money.
Is today's situation great? No. But is sure beats the "good old days" - I couldn't afford what little was available then, either.
my thoughts, your choices
Fred W
I will only order from places that have a website/computer system that can show if the item is indeed in stock. These places show the change in " #s in stock or sold out" as soon as I have ordered. This is just my preference as I don't have the patience to play games with retailers.
The one place that gets most of my business shows "In stock - Sold out - Available - Coming soon - New arrival". Their system is dead on every time I use it. Items marked available have to be brought in, but it usually happens very quickly for me.
I think it is just good business to be efficient. Both for the customer and the retailer. Just my .
Brent
"All of the world's problems are the result of the difference between how we think and how the world works."
Hi everyone,
Yeah I feel your pain. The new layout is on hold because I was hoping Atlas would hurry up and release their forth coming code 55 curved turnout. I dutifully preordered them from my LHS, back is January, I think. Through searching online I cannot determine when or if they will be released, last I saw March 2010 was the release date. I really like Atlas's products but I want to get started on the new layout, so I think Peco will be getting some of my business.
Sean
Check Atlas's site under "A to Z Shipping Schedule". They have SP GP40-2's listed as shipping in May 2010. Their info is fairly reliable, although it takes them 40-50 days to put new releases up (where are the Trash container flats announced in Feb?).
Most online sellers don't carry much inventory, just turn and burn. I stuck with the LHS because they keep a big 'ol bag of stuff for me and they know I work crazy hours and eventually I'll pick it up.
As far as release dates???? I got a Walthers Amtrak Baggage car in December that I ordered before I met my Fiance', we've been dating 5 years.
Mine doesn't move.......it's at the station!!!
One word... M.B.KLEIN
UP 4-12-2 Guess what--the only place I know of that actually has the product in stock is M.B. Klein (unless you want to pay typically much closer to retail price and order directly from Walthers). www.modeltrainstuff.com Their inventory is real-time updated. ie. As soon as you place an order, the available quantity decreases by the number of the item that you ordered. Nobody else that I'm aware of, including my former employer, offers real time inventory updates.
I can attest to that. I ordered a bridge from MB Klein a couple weeks ago - they had one in stock and once my ordered processed, their on-line inventory was zero. It took them about a week to ship but it was also during the East Coast storm and I guess they got pretty backed up.
As far as Walthers is concerned, I have seen things in their sale brochure and they will show no inventory and don't know when they will be getting any in according to their web site. That one always amazes me.
I don't deal with re-shippers - too many issues and questionable customer service.
My general rule, if it isn't in stock, I don't order it. Saves me a ton of grief.
There's never time to do it right, but always time to do it over.....
Well, as I have said before, I don't and WON'T preorder anything. I don't base my modeling choices or needs on what maybe available.
I base it on what IS available and what I am willing to BUILD MYSELF.
Thereby avoiding all such frustration.
Not to mention money saved by not paying too much when products are first released only to see them at much deeper discounts 6 months later.
Still buying lots of Bachmann, Intermountain, Athearn and others - AFTER they actually show up on NORTH AMERICAN soil.
Still buying from Klein's, TrainWorld, StarHobby, Peach Creek, Forest Hill Station and others as usual.
Still refusing to do the market research for ATLAS OR BLI before they invest money in making product.
VERY happy and not frustrated at all,
Sheldon
I am batting 500 for pre-orders. I have a hodgepodge collection from 6 different roads, buying singles of a type of engine that appeals to me. I don't model any one road. However, I did order the Q2, delivered two months delayed from the original delivery date offered by BLI, just this morning. The other engine, the Sunset 2-10-4 in brass with QSI sound announced in 2008, is still not in production. I don't hold out much hope for it.
One thing to be said for the non-modeller, or someone who freelances, you can pick and choose from many production runs that turn up on the discounted lists. Generally, discounted means over-produced and in abundant supply.
-Crandell
selectorOne thing to be said for the non-modeller
What is a "non-modeller" and why would he buy a train?
selectoror someone who freelances, you can pick and choose from many production runs that turn up on the discounted lists. Generally, discounted means over-produced and in abundant supply.
Even most freelance modelers have desire to follow a believable premise, so while they may have more choices, few are likely to reletter Big Boy's, GG1's or K4's to their private road.
ATLANTIC CENTRAL selectoror someone who freelances, you can pick and choose from many production runs that turn up on the discounted lists. Generally, discounted means over-produced and in abundant supply. Even most freelance modelers have desire to follow a believable premise, so while they may have more choices, few are likely to reletter Big Boy's, GG1's or K4's to their private road.
Interesting premise here. Only freelancer I know that would do this would be modelling a mainline operation.
Me? I'm just this little shortline running an ex-CP branchline that has a lot of track with no ballast. Fat chance that any Big Boy, GG1--no, we did not electrify our line, or K-4 happen upon this warped road
ALCO RS's and S-2's reside here. As well as a few RDC's
ATLANTIC CENTRALWhat is a "non-modeller" and why would he buy a train?
Someone who doesn't model...like me. Sure, I create scenery and lay track, but it isn't a model. I don't "model" anyplace in particular, I just make somewhat passable scenery. If I were "modelling" in this hobby I would have something recognizable to people who know the location, and I would have rolling stock running through it that 'fits'. As for buying trains, if I make scenery and lay track, it would seem logical to follow up with some toy trains...n'est-ce pas?
ATLANTIC CENTRALEven most freelance modelers have desire to follow a believable premise, so while they may have more choices, few are likely to reletter Big Boy's, GG1's or K4's to their private road.
Maybe, but what's your point? I was talking about my hodge-podge of unrelated roads. I have many engines from which to choose...I averred nothing more. Re-letter or don't, as you wish, and as you can. I will do likewise.
UP 4-12-2 I have worked for a major mail order dealer. I also have ordered from just about every major train shop in the country over the last 20 years. Guess what--the only place I know of that actually has the product in stock is M.B. Klein (unless you want to pay typically much closer to retail price and order directly from Walthers). www.modeltrainstuff.com Their inventory is real-time updated. ie. As soon as you place an order, the available quantity decreases by the number of the item that you ordered. Nobody else that I'm aware of, including my former employer, offers real time inventory updates. I guarantee you that even my former employer is a "re-shipper". They advertise items for sale that they can get from a distributor in about 2 days. Sure--they still have plenty of items in stock--but they do not have everything. Even Walthers doesn't have "everything" but is out of stock on plenty of items. M.B. Klein is the only discount retailer that honestly shows you exactly what they have in stock, 24 hours per day. In the rare event the inventory is off (happened once), they called me to offer me another road number of the same passenger car. Also, depending on your order time and date and how busy they are, you still might have to wait a couple days to get your order--but they usually deliver in less than 5 days. (usually 2 days to me, but I'm only 90 miles away). Respectfully submitted-- John
Klein has been slipping a bit lately...I live an hour away and my order of 100% in-stock items took a week to get to me. They still blow the pants off the competition on most things though.
selector ATLANTIC CENTRALWhat is a "non-modeller" and why would he buy a train? Someone who doesn't model...like me. Sure, I create scenery and lay track, but it isn't a model. I don't "model" anyplace in particular, I just make somewhat passable scenery. If I were "modelling" in this hobby I would have something recognizable to people who know the location, and I would have rolling stock running through it that 'fits'. As for buying trains, if I make scenery and lay track, it would seem logical to follow up with some toy trains...n'est-ce pas?
Interesteing definition in view of all the threads over the years about how we are all "modelers". I don't "model" an exact place or places, or copy real structures to any great extent, neither do most of the modelers I know - but we ARE modelers.
If you think you are not a "modeler" because you ae not neck deep in copying some "exact" section of some real railroad like some of those "famous" people in the hobby press, then I feel sorry for you as another victum of the hobby press and their "you must do it this way" preaching.
selector ATLANTIC CENTRALEven most freelance modelers have desire to follow a believable premise, so while they may have more choices, few are likely to reletter Big Boy's, GG1's or K4's to their private road. Maybe, but what's your point? I was talking about my hodge-podge of unrelated roads. I have many engines from which to choose...I averred nothing more. Re-letter or don't, as you wish, and as you can. I will do likewise.
Most freelance "modelers" are still looking for "believable", so Big Boys and K4's are out since they are instantly recognizable as being unique to ONE railroad. A Big Boy lettered "ATLANTIC CENTRAL" would stand out like sore thumb for two reasons, there where only 25 of them on only one railroad, and, they are a western design that would have never been practical in the east.
So again, most freelance modelers have some sort of guide lines of believable that they follow, no matter what era, region or type of railroad they model.
blownout cylinder ATLANTIC CENTRAL selectoror someone who freelances, you can pick and choose from many production runs that turn up on the discounted lists. Generally, discounted means over-produced and in abundant supply. Even most freelance modelers have desire to follow a believable premise, so while they may have more choices, few are likely to reletter Big Boy's, GG1's or K4's to their private road. Interesting premise here. Only freelancer I know that would do this would be modelling a mainline operation. Me? I'm just this little shortline running an ex-CP branchline that has a lot of track with no ballast. Fat chance that any Big Boy, GG1--no, we did not electrify our line, or K-4 happen upon this warped road ALCO RS's and S-2's reside here. As well as a few RDC's
Barry,
Even someone modeling a Class I line in the correct era is not likely to reletter too many Big Boy's or K4's for their line. Yes, I'm sure some have, but their unique-ness makes them somewhat of an illusion buster.
On the other hand, my fleet of USRA types, and similar locos from similar lines in the same region as my fictional ATLANTIC CENTRAL gives a believable family look to my loco fleet.
Samples: (a partial list)
USRA Heavy Mountains
USRA Heavy Mikados (with tenders that match the Mountains)
USRA Light Pacifics
Baldwin Consolidations
USRA 2-6-6-2's
USRA 2-8-8-2's
Lima 2-6-6-6's (two eastern roads owned these, why not a third?)
2-6-6-4's (with a different tender, these look just like any other eastern articulated)
Home Built 4-8-4's (an east coast non streamlined loco)
Baldwin 4-6-0's
USRA 0-8-0's
I'll let you figure out the brands of the models, but as you can see, it makes a believable roster for an east coast Class I.
No Big Boys, K4's (or other unique PRR power), UP Challengers, Gas Turbines, Triplexs, etc.
And that's just some of the steam, there a plenty of diesels too.
And I'm not loosing any sleep over any "new release" or "preorders".
OdieKlein has been slipping a bit lately...I live an hour away and my order of 100% in-stock items took a week to get to me. They still blow the pants off the competition on most things though.
I saw something on their web site that talked about orders getting backed up because of the weather out East. It doesn't surprise me at all. They are still the best mail order house - even better at times than Walthers.
Driline One word... M.B.KLEIN
Those that peruse other forums will already be aware that over on the Atlas sponsored site that basically the same discussion has now reached 17 pages.
What I will add here is that I can only see the current situation, with pre-orders and ever more limited runs, as a death spiral over time instituted by the manufacturers themselves. The tendency seems to be that most, if not all, manufacturers will slip into this strategy over the decade.
If manufacturers only produce products on the basis of the number of pre-orders they receive, and without enough solid pre-orders cancel any project (or wait indefinitely for enough pre-orders to accumulate), hobbyists will eventually see an ever more limited number of the models produced and/or ever increasing prices to justify the dwindling runs. This is especially true when one sees how many hobbyists are openly vowing they will never pre-order, sight-unseen, any future models, even though they probably would have bought them if the product were commonly available. So, the situation can go no other way.
In the end you have exactly what the brass collecting hobby became over the years: a very limited number of buyers paying astronomical prices for items whose runs amount to a few score units. Transposing that situation to the much broader hobby of model railroading (it's hardly just about collecting) makes our hobby essentially unsustainable as the traditional model railroaders become priced out of the marketplace. IHC is gone, Mantua is gone, and that pretty much leaves Bachmann as the only manufacturer currently producing affordable smaller steamers. Loose them to the pre-order, unlimited pricing craze and it will be game over for much of the hobby.
CNJ831
CNJ831 Loose them to the pre-order, unlimited pricing craze and it will be game over for much of the hobby. CNJ831
Loose them to the pre-order, unlimited pricing craze and it will be game over for much of the hobby.
This is exactly my point for posting this rant. I don't give a rat's patoot about how, when, or why the model manufacturers come up with the way they introduce, design, and build a new product. If you're gonna do it, then just do it and put it on the market already!....chuck
ATLANTIC CENTRALIf you think you are not a "modeler" because you ae not neck deep in copying some "exact" section of some real railroad like some of those "famous" people in the hobby press, then I feel sorry for you as another victum of the hobby press and their "you must do it this way" preaching.
Please, Sheldon, don't send any of your pity my way. As I was careful to say in my initial post, mirroring your own sentiments, I am perfectly happy doing things as I darned well please. I don't consider myself a victim any more than you do. If your values require you to label me a victim, please just keep that to yourself...it means nothing to me.
Thanks.
cwclark CNJ831 Loose them to the pre-order, unlimited pricing craze and it will be game over for much of the hobby. CNJ831 This is exactly my point for posting this rant. I don't give a rat's patoot about how, when, or why the model manufacturers come up with the way they introduce, design, and build a new product. If you're gonna do it, then just do it and put it on the market already!....chuck
Sometimes I wonder about this whole thing. The way to do things does not seem to eminate from a "logical" source nowadays. We seem to have thrown out any concept of manufacturing that has anything to do with inventory and replaced it with what some would say is a miserly method of mfg. All because it costs $$$$ to hold it. Then guys like me come along and WE get told WE are paranoid when in fact the mfg's put out that it does cost them $$$$!!!
Any idea of GROWING a market seems to be met with scepticism---almost the exact opposite to what seemingly was overdone then.
At some point a wee bit of a balance might be an idea. But then again-----what would happen to the fine art of kvetching then?
CNJ831 What I will add here is that I can only see the current situation, with pre-orders and ever more limited runs, as a death spiral over time instituted by the manufacturers themselves. The tendency seems to be that most, if not all, manufacturers will slip into this strategy over the decade. If manufacturers only produce products on the basis of the number of pre-orders they receive, and without enough solid pre-orders cancel any project (or wait indefinitely for enough pre-orders to accumulate), hobbyists will eventually see an ever more limited number of the models produced and/or ever increasing prices to justify the dwindling runs. This is especially true when one sees how many hobbyists are openly vowing they will never pre-order, sight-unseen, any future models, even though they probably would have bought them if the product were commonly available. So, the situation can go no other way. CNJ831
I couldn't agree more about the death spiral. Yet the cost and risk of failure is so high for today's RTR plastic locomotive model market, it's hard to fault the importers for trying to mitigate their risks. Like I said earlier, we're all pretty cavalier when it comes to Other People's Money. Make it your $$ instead of their's, and tell me how much you are willing to risk. According to the posters who refuse to pre-order - even the cost of one locomotive is too much risk. So we have the stand-off with neither side willing to risk their $$ on an unproven business model.
The buyer doesn't want to take a chance on a model that might be late or not what he expected. The seller doesn't want to take a chance of investing in inventory he won't be able to sell. Especially if the feeling I have that the hobby has past it's peak is true.
Most of the posters in the thread expect the importer/manufacturer to make the leap of faith out of this dilemma. I doubt that will happen because the $$ are so much bigger on that side, and these are privately (individually) owned businesses. I also think CNJ is right on - tomorrow's RTR plastic is today's brass. My best guess of the future is a return to a much smaller hobby, and a return to modeling instead of buying. There will be quality RTR available, but at price tags commensurate with today's new brass. The fly in the ointment is that the in the '60s through '80s, there were the generic die cast and cheap plastic (Athearn BB and AHM) locomotives for those who could not afford brass. That fall back is no longer available for those being priced out of or withdrawing from the quality plastic market. High priced etched and resin kits will be the alternative to high-priced plastic, which will help lead to the destruction of the hobby as practiced today. Or modelers will no longer disparage Bachmann's standard line, and find ways to improve them for mainstream use. Hopefully, out of these and other possibilities an alternate affordable business model will emerge that can/will provide a floor under the hobby shrinkage.
just my thoughts