It was a surprise to find the BLI Daylight train to be on HOLD, or TBD as they call it. The schedule recently had the 1941 train due almost any day after the first of 2010. It has backed up and backed up until it is now out of sight around the bend on TBD.
Any thoughts on this latest schedule of lack of it???
CZ
CAZEPHYR It was a surprise to find the BLI Daylight train to be on HOLD, or TBD as they call it. The schedule recently had the 1941 train due almost any day after the first of 2010. It has backed up and backed up until it is now out of sight around the bend on TBD. Any thoughts on this latest schedule of lack of it??? CZ
Lack of money, lack of preorder victums to pay too much only to see the balance for sale at 1/2 price.
Sheldon
You are probably right about the lack of money and MTH is bringing in some parts of the train also. \
Wondering if they have even carried through with the production tooling. Multi-cavity molds are expensive when you have a tentative demand.
Maybe its because of MTH's lawsuit against BLI.
duckdogger Wondering if they have even carried through with the production tooling. Multi-cavity molds are expensive when you have a tentative demand.
I believe we were treated to some pre-production models at one of the shows last year of several cars. They were not painted, but looked fairly good. Anyone have pictures??
Well, it's a good argument for switching to N scale since Kato has already released the complete train and a choice of motive power for it.
<Lou Costello> "I'm a baaaaaad boy" </Lou Costello>
Andre
Once upon a time ... all fairy tales start with these words...
Well, once upon a time, there was an annual catalog, which was usually published in time for the Christmas business. All of the items shown in there you could actually buy - no pre-orders, no pre-release notices, no TBD´s. This was heaven! Each year, in February, new models were introduced at the Nuremberg Toy Fair, and you could be sure, that you were able to buy them before Christmas. This was also heaven!
Today, we suffer from limited runs, product announcements, which show up years after the announcements, re-scheduling and you name it.
Takes the fun out of the hobby!
I agree a return to the concept of "inventory" would be better for the hobby and likely better for the manufacturers in the long run.
But my personal solution is to simply not put anything on my "want list" until someone in North America has actually touched a regular production version of the product. I simply don't consider it to exist until then.
In the April MR that just arrived yesterday there is an open letter from Rapido about the "need" for the pre-order system and the future of their company/product lines. Personally they have yet to make anything I need or want, and while their stuff does look very nice, I don't care one bit about their money problems (are any of you loosing any sleep about your neighbors money problems?). Either they want to be in business or they don't, either they can offer products to the market that people buy or they can't.
If they can't - oh well, someone will, OR the market simply did not exist in the first place and nothing they did created a new market.
I am a small business, I don't ask my customers to pay me in adavance or to even commit months or years in advance to buying/needing my services - why should we do that for these manufacturers?
Find enough working capital or get out and leave it those who have proven they know how to do it.
Mass produced model train products have ALWAYS been produced in "batches", that's not the problem. If they want to make one batch and wait to see how it goes before making more OK. But don't tell me up front your only making one battch to get into a pre-order and a high price. Make it, put a price on it, INVEST YOUR MONEY AND TAKE YOUR CHANCES like the rest of business world does.
Athearn, Atlas, Bachmann, Walthers and Intermountain all seem to be doing fine with batch production that, while "advertised" a little differently then in the past, is really not much different than it was 30, 40 or even 50 years ago in this hobby.
BLI, Rapido and whoever need to stay on the porch if they can't play with the big dogs.
ATLANTIC CENTRALAthearn, Atlas, Bachmann, Walthers and Intermountain all seem to be doing fine with batch production that, while "advertised" a little differently then in the past, is really not much different than it was 30, 40 or even 50 years ago inthis hobby.
Small correction, Sheldon. Atlas has gone the pre-order route, too. Check their home page.
Tom
https://tstage9.wixsite.com/nyc-modeling
Time...It marches on...without ever turning around to see if anyone is even keeping in step.
tstage ATLANTIC CENTRALAthearn, Atlas, Bachmann, Walthers and Intermountain all seem to be doing fine with batch production that, while "advertised" a little differently then in the past, is really not much different than it was 30, 40 or even 50 years ago inthis hobby. Small correction, Sheldon. Atlas has gone the pre-order route, too. Check their home page. Tom
OK, small correction there, BUT they still sell lots of stuff, track, buildings, signal systems, etc, etc, the old fashioned way. Atlas locos and rolling stock is not high on my radar because so much of it is too new for my era. And, at least up to now, they have always over run their preorders by a fair precentage and put that product out there.
AND, I have seen a fair amount of Atlas locos/rolling stock on store shelves up to now, I guess that may change now.
Several Chinese hobby manufacturers have gone bankrupt -- maybe one of them was the company that was to produce the BLI models ----
BLI, the company with the finest selection of unproduced models in the industry. Whatever happened to the "if you build it, they will come approach" which is how it was done for most of the history of the hobby. If you can make a good product and sell it at a reasonable price, you don't have to worry about a logjam of inventory. Consumers will buy what you build. I've never pre-ordered an item and I never will. If you don't make it first, I won't buy it. I'm sure a lot of other people feel the same way I do which is why BLI is losing market share to MTH and other competitors. They've force me to buy my Dreyfus Hudson from MTH even though I've been wanting for years to buy it from BLI. I got tired of waiting. Sorry, but I can't can't run pre-ordered locos on my layout.
Yikes, looks like the Paragon 2 Reading T1 got pushed back to TBD also...
ATLANTIC CENTRAL Athearn, Atlas, Bachmann, Walthers and Intermountain all seem to be doing fine with batch production that, while "advertised" a little differently then in the past, is really not much different than it was 30, 40 or even 50 years ago in this hobby.
I read the letter from Rapido that Atlantic Central refered to a few posts up on this thread also. Like it or not, we live in an era where if it sits on the shelf for more than a couple of months, the bean counters get nervous. If there is something you really want you should probably make the leap when it comes out.
After one of my acquaintance's experience with Walthers, it would be my bet that when manufacturers announce pre-orders, they are really testing the demand waters, so to speak. Making a pre-production sample is one level of expense - cheap mold dies, single cavity, etc. Pulling the lever for full production with multi-cavity dies is another.
In the scenario where deliveries slide back to TBD or TBA, I would say serious financial obstacles have surfaced and the viability of the run is in question. And it could be a related factor as mentioned, that the Chinese connection went belly up.
Left Coast RailI don't think Athearn is doing much overproduction either. I believe their Gas Turbine locomotive was delivered to stores sometime last spring and were sold out by the end of summer. The same goes for the Genesis Southern Pacific F7s in bloody nose and black widow that have come out the last couple of years. I read the letter from Rapido that Atlantic Central refered to a few posts up on this thread also. Like it or not, we live in an era where if it sits on the shelf for more than a couple of months, the bean counters get nervous. If there is something you really want you should probably make the leap when it comes out.
The days of having many extra models on the shelf seem to be over like you said, the Turbines were gone fast. This was a model that had only been made in brass and die cast metal (Lionel ) up to the time the 51 series turbine was offered by Athearn. The Veranda will probably sell just as well.
CAZEPHYR The days of having many extra models on the shelf seem to be over like you said, the Turbines were gone fast. This was a model that had only been made in brass and die cast metal (Lionel ) up to the time the 51 series turbine was offered by Athearn. The Veranda will probably sell just as well.
Selling out a first run at the manufacturer and selling out at the dealer level are two different things. I buy lots of Athearn and never have any problem finding a dealer somewhere with what I want, even years after it says it's out on their web site or at Horizon.
So that shows they are making more than the pre orders by quite a bit.
I get their newsletter and the re-runs of previous stuff are continious. Sure their are gaps in availability, but there always have been. There is a difference between batch production and this preorder non sense.
As for BLI, a few of everything always make the closeout bin, a big mistake if you ask me. The last run of heavy and light Mikados sold out fast, it all sells out fast once they lower the prices to Bachmann levels.
And based on my experiances with the nine pieces I have, BLI quality is no better, or even not as good as Bachmann - and I frankly think the quality from Bachmann as been just fine in the last few years.
Again, you are all welcome to keep pre-ordering, I will wait for the closeouts since we know that is their business model. Athearn never does that because they know they will make more later and want the second, third and fourth batches to have market "value". Bachmann may have super deep discounts right off the bat, but they too don't "dump" product. - there is a difference. Examine the prices of the others and you will see what I mean.
I think its because of competition and perceived reduction in sales due to this that BLI is putting it off, or may cancel it, depending on economic factors. There are other manufacturers offering Daylight passenger cars right? Athearn and MTH?
They are producing Daylight passenger cars and that may be enough to siphon off much of the demand and pre-orders. I love my BLI CZ cars but that is the only thing I ever bought from them or anticipate ever buying. But in the current world economy, two manufacturers can't get away with making too similar a product is my guess. Maybe a couple years ago but now?
Rio Grande. The Action Road - Focus 1977-1983
Every body wants a winner. Sports, business, entertainment. You can buy, what at least 4 versions of an SD40-2? Similar duplicate modern wide cab GE, SW1500, F-7s. Yet no SDP40F, SD-18, whatever.
I think we need an HO model draft. Similar to the NFL version. Lowest gross sales gets first pick of the model they will make. 2 year license before the unit returns to the pool.
We'll have a locomotive, freight and passenger car divisions. You can trade or sell your spot but you cannot make a specific model unless you own it.
And we modelers submit the list of choices and minimum standards of quality, details, etc. and no proprietary sound systems!
I'll admit that I'm a sports ignoramous, so the draft analogy is lost on me. I don't even believe in evolution, but there does seem to be a "natural selection" going on in the business world and the hobby world as time goes by. Boy, look at ExactRail, they are going like gang busters but BLI, while they have produced a lot of stuff, they seem to be doing it rather haltingly, and floating trial balloons etc.
As for the Daylight passenger cars, it may simply be down to there being only so much market out there during the current recession and they are too leary of putting out what my be percieved to be a "duplicate product" and losing out financially. I realize they may or may not be putting out exactly the same passenger cars, but ... it may be the same wallets opening up for either/or of BLI, MTH, Athearn, what have you. Whoever gets a product on the shelves first may get more dollars and the others a lot fewer dollars. Thats my edumacated guess!
duckdogger After one of my acquaintance's experience with Walthers, it would be my bet that when manufacturers announce pre-orders, they are really testing the demand waters, so to speak.
After one of my acquaintance's experience with Walthers, it would be my bet that when manufacturers announce pre-orders, they are really testing the demand waters, so to speak.
I've had similar experience with Bachmann's G scale products -- at least twice in the past couple of years they have advertised pre-orders of a model only to never produce it, possibly because they never got enough pre-orders.
riogrande5761 I think its because of competition and perceived reduction in sales due to this that BLI is putting it off, or may cancel it, depending on economic factors. There are other manufacturers offering Daylight passenger cars right? Athearn and MTH? They are producing Daylight passenger cars and that may be enough to siphon off much of the demand and pre-orders. I love my BLI CZ cars but that is the only thing I ever bought from them or anticipate ever buying. But in the current world economy, two manufacturers can't get away with making too similar a product is my guess. Maybe a couple years ago but now?
Athearn cancelled their run of Daylight cars about a year ago but completed the single coach for the Cascade train and now have announced the Daylight version of the coach. MTH still has a partial Daylight train on their list but the BLI was a complete train for the 1941 era on their first release and the 1953 train as their second release.
BLI just received their second run of the California Zephyr train recently and my thought is that train did not sell out since it is the second run. I did purchase the first run CZ train but the demand for a complete second run would have been lower and they probably have too much stock on hand. I would certainly hope they can find the money to bring to market the 1953 Daylight train.
andrechapelon CAZEPHYR It was a surprise to find the BLI Daylight train to be on HOLD, or TBD as they call it. The schedule recently had the 1941 train due almost any day after the first of 2010. It has backed up and backed up until it is now out of sight around the bend on TBD. Any thoughts on this latest schedule of lack of it??? CZ Well, it's a good argument for switching to N scale since Kato has already released the complete train and a choice of motive power for it. <Lou Costello> "I'm a baaaaaad boy" </Lou Costello> Andre
Heeheehee
KATO seems to be doing something here---why is HO, which is SUPPOSED to be more popular having this nonsense going on?
Any argument carried far enough will end up in Semantics--Hartz's law of rhetoric Emerald. Leemer and Southern The route of the Sceptre Express Barry
I just started my blog site...more stuff to come...
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blownout cylinder andrechapelon CAZEPHYR It was a surprise to find the BLI Daylight train to be on HOLD, or TBD as they call it. The schedule recently had the 1941 train due almost any day after the first of 2010. It has backed up and backed up until it is now out of sight around the bend on TBD. Any thoughts on this latest schedule of lack of it??? CZ Well, it's a good argument for switching to N scale since Kato has already released the complete train and a choice of motive power for it. <Lou Costello> "I'm a baaaaaad boy" </Lou Costello> Andre Heeheehee KATO seems to be doing something here---why is HO, which is SUPPOSED to be more popular having this nonsense going on?
That's easy to answer - TOO many companies making the same stuff. GS4's from how many sources, Big Boy's, K4's, etc, etc. We even see it with freight and passenger cars - or, if you can even believe it, traction? How many new PCC cars are about to show up?
In the good old days Athearn and Roundhouse politely did not make the same "stuff" - business was booming for both.
CAZEPHYRAny thoughts on this latest schedule of lack of it???
Actually I thought it was originally supposed to be the end of 2008, because I was still buying whatever Walthers set was being produced and couldn't afford yet another set. Then of course there is the GN S2 that was supposed to be early 2006.
I cancelled all my pre-orders long ago. Just my luck when they finally got around to running it I would have already spent the money on something else.
blownout cylinder Heeheehee KATO seems to be doing something here---why is HO, which is SUPPOSED to be more popular having this nonsense going on?
I can answer that question. HO is more popular in the United States where many more modelers have the real estate to build an HO layout. The rest of the world, not so. KATO caters mainly to "the rest of the world" so N scale is their bread and butter, so I've been told. If this is true, then USA N-scalers benefit from KATO's N-scale focus.
Once upon a time when I was younger and I could view N-scale up close and personal and could enjoy it more visually, I was into it. But N-scale simply didn't offer the rolling stock I needed to model the Rio Grande from the 1970's and onward. Only in the last 10 years have we seen the CZ in N, tunnel motors and other items. I'm too vested in HO now to ever think of looking back and I can't afford two scales right now. The N-scale CZ has been mighty tempting I must say, but there are still some features of N that turn me off, and one is the big gap at the ends of the cars needed to accomodate the oversize draft gear. Otherwise N has improved a good deal from its 1970's toy like appearance - broken only by Micro Trains.
Texas Zepher CAZEPHYRAny thoughts on this latest schedule of lack of it??? Just typical. Actually I thought it was originally supposed to be the end of 2008, because I was still buying whatever Walthers set was being produced and couldn't afford yet another set. Then of course there is the GN S2 that was supposed to be early 2006. I cancelled all my pre-orders long ago. Just my luck when they finally got around to running it I would have already spent the money on something else.
I agree on the cancellation of the pre-orders. The advertised prices don't hold up either after two years so having reservations for two to three years does not make sense to me. It might be importage to the individual companies for their orders, but BLI blew that about five years ago when they started the blowout sale and left dealers with stock on their shelves that cost more than BLI sold them directly to us.
The train has been on the schedule for a long time, but recently at a show, they displayed some preproduction cars from the new tooling. The orginal advertisement were brass cars so we were excited to see some preproduction cars.
The fact that Athearn did drop out of the complete train deal should give BLI a better market. The Athearn cars were the cars from the 1939 train and were not in direct competition to BLI. The BLI ad seems to have a limited set of cars if they make it to market.
Several years ago a member of our local HO scale club pre-ordered a Con-Cor Burlington Zephyr train because it was claimed that it would be a very limited production. He waited something like six months before receiving the model, and paid over $400 for it.
One week later there were five on the shelf at an Ace Hardware in Tucson priced at 1/3 what he had paid.
And then Con-Cor produced a second run of the model, which destroyed any collector value the original may have had.