vsmithWdlgln005 1) 3D TV arrives on the market this summer.... Aug 5, 3:00pm the first 3-D TV hits the market Aug 5, 3:01pm the first 3-D DVD porno hits the market betcha ol' Criswell is 100% correct on this one
Wdlgln005 1) 3D TV arrives on the market this summer....
1) 3D TV arrives on the market this summer....
Aug 5, 3:00pm the first 3-D TV hits the market
Aug 5, 3:01pm the first 3-D DVD porno hits the market
betcha ol' Criswell is 100% correct on this one
Aug 5, 3:02pm Joan Rivers and Phyllis Diller team up for the first female 3D TV Comics Hour
Aug 5, 3:03pm 3D TV relegated to the dustbin of history
Have fun with your trains
andrechapelon8. Of the the above 7 predictions, the first 6 will be shown at the end of 10 years to have been 100% correct. The 7th would also be shown to be correct if I actually cared enough to make the effort.
I think one could go with a few others in the magazine-----b/c they seem to fit the same thread pattern
You forgot another one---there will usually be---but not always a jousting match between 2 or 3 main characters in the story line
Any argument carried far enough will end up in Semantics--Hartz's law of rhetoric Emerald. Leemer and Southern The route of the Sceptre Express Barry
I just started my blog site...more stuff to come...
http://modeltrainswithmusic.blogspot.ca/
1. Several times a year, on this very forum, people will lament the lost "good old days".
2. At least once a month on this forum, someone will start a thread complaining about pricing in the hobby and will accuse one or more manufacturers of being driven by pure greed.
3. Several times a year someone will start a thread complaining about the "dumbing" down of content in MR.
4. Several times a year someone will start a thread complaining about Mike Wolfe and/or MTH.
5. At least once a week, someone will start a thread asking "What's the best <fill in the blank>?".
6. Several times a year, someone will post a cryptic question along the lines of "My <fill in the blank> doesn't work, what's wrong with it?". It will take at least two pages of posts to determine what the OP was actually referring to.
7. Sometime in the next 10 years, yours truly will find the Joe G. Collias letter to the editor from sometime in 1959 or so which lamented the direction the hobby was taking then. I will then alter the wording slightly to disquise the fact that the Collias rant is a half century old and post it. At least 50% of those responding will aqree.
8. Of the the above 7 predictions, the first 6 will be shown at the end of 10 years to have been 100% correct. The 7th would also be shown to be correct if I actually cared enough to make the effort.
ANdre
andrechapelon wjstix 2020?? I thought the world was going to end Dec 21, 2012?? That's what they keep saying on the History Channel anyway.... Shoot. According to Nina Gordon, it's already ended. Why does the sun go on shining Why does the sea rush to shore Don't they know it's the end of the world'Cause you don't love me any more Why do the birds go on singing Why do the stars glow above Don't they know it's the end of the worldIt ended when I lost your love........... Andre
wjstix 2020?? I thought the world was going to end Dec 21, 2012?? That's what they keep saying on the History Channel anyway....
2020?? I thought the world was going to end Dec 21, 2012?? That's what they keep saying on the History Channel anyway....
Shoot. According to Nina Gordon, it's already ended.
Why does the sun go on shining Why does the sea rush to shore Don't they know it's the end of the world'Cause you don't love me any more Why do the birds go on singing Why do the stars glow above Don't they know it's the end of the worldIt ended when I lost your love...........
Andre
The End of the World has been forecast for millenia----
The Location: Forests of the Pacific Northwest, OregonThe Year: 1948The Scale: On30The Blog: http://bvlcorr.tumblr.com
A company will FINALLY come out with a 40' Rio Grande boxcar that isn't either wood-braced or the silver steel "Cookie Box". Oh, wait a moment, I see that Accurail just DID! A 40' steel Rio Grande boxcar in the late 'forties boxcar red. And it's a KIT! Thank you, Accurail.
BLI, MTH, Genesis and Proto 2000 will all come out (at the same time) with models of the Missabe M-3/4 2-8-8-4 Yellowstones. They will all sue each other over the copyrights to who owns the sound effects. Meanwhile, those that buy either the BLI, MTH, Genesis or Proto 2000 Yellowstones will suddenly realize that because of all the electronic sound, smoke and general DCC gizmos taking up all the weight in the locomotives, that they can barely pull their tenders.
There is a sudden rush to hunt up all of the remaining Akane brass 1964 models. Again.
Athearn and BLI will finally come out with their 1937 and 1948 "Coast Daylight" trains. MTH will consider sueing them until they suddenly realize that their "Daylight" cars are instead based on the 1950 "Shasta Daylight" trains, which are a whole other ball of wax. SP modelers will be the happiest people in the world.
BLI will hesitantly release a Pennsy H-series 2-8-0 in lieu of another Pennsy Duplex and be amazed that it turns out to be the best-selling steam locomotive it ever produced.
With the sudden success of their HO "Mountain Lions", Woodland Scenics will release Bobcats, Lynx and field mice. The HO field mice will come in VERY small plastic packages.
Tom
Tom View my layout photos! http://s299.photobucket.com/albums/mm310/TWhite-014/Rio%20Grande%20Yuba%20River%20Sub One can NEVER have too many Articulateds!
More manufacturers will resort to polling the customer base to see what models they should build.
The first battery powered locomotive for HO scale will arrive. LiAsGa
One major manufacturer will be bought by another, another victim of the Recession.
More Hobby shops will close.
1) 3D TV arrives on the market this summer. Pentrex, Green Frog will sell Blue Ray 3D video. The 3D glasses will fit on the brim of a railroad cap. Your choice of road name.
2) Model Railroader on the net may be the last all scale general model railroad magazine, with a heavy Internet content. Model videos will be converted to the 3D TV format.
3) Model Railroader will sponsor the first 3D TV Virtual Model Railroad.
4) On a worldwide basis, N scale will match & pass HO scale. Z may grow to 3rd place. Larger scales will hold on in gardens. Toy trains like Lionel O & American Flyer S exist only in museums where aging boomers entertain a new generation of grandkids.
5) HSR may exist in California, IL, & the Northeast. HSR models will be popular. The trains will be done in regional color schemes.
6) Financial difficulty (bankruptcy) will force the breakup of CSX & NS into smaller regional systems. UP/BNSF will share a lot of trackage in the West to preserve some competition from the 2 carriers.
7) Modelers will debate the merits of Kato, Atlas, Athearn, MTL, Bachmann products.
vsmithI think it will take quite a while for the "Pocket Calculator Effect" to bring prices down to an anywhere reasonable level for the home modeler to ever own one of these.
You mean one of these?
Reprap - Rapid Prototyping System
You can build one from scratch with complete plans online. Or purchase critical subassemblies already assembled. Or buy a complete kit of parts. Or buy a completely assembled machine (RTR).
The question is, the way I see it, is which way are you gonna go? The "craftsman" route and make your own "Santa Claus machine" from scratch... or the "RTR" route??? I think the Rapid Prototyping hobby may be about to split...
vsmith I think it will take quite a while for the "Pocket Calculator Effect" to bring prices down to an anywhere reasonable level for the home modeler to ever own one of these. So perhaps instead of having a personal RP machine in your basement, perhaps an online service where you send in your model and specs desired, make your downpayment then its banged out with perhaps a online realtime feed to see the model testing, then its sent and you pay the final retainer on acceptance at delivery. The advantage is that 3D computer models are cheap to store, you can have 100s or 1000s to chose from, so if I want a Darjeeling Class B locomotive in On30 scale, it can be assembled from a kit of parts in the computers database on the RP machine, that would be very interesting indeed
I think it will take quite a while for the "Pocket Calculator Effect" to bring prices down to an anywhere reasonable level for the home modeler to ever own one of these. So perhaps instead of having a personal RP machine in your basement, perhaps an online service where you send in your model and specs desired, make your downpayment then its banged out with perhaps a online realtime feed to see the model testing, then its sent and you pay the final retainer on acceptance at delivery. The advantage is that 3D computer models are cheap to store, you can have 100s or 1000s to chose from, so if I want a Darjeeling Class B locomotive in On30 scale, it can be assembled from a kit of parts in the computers database on the RP machine, that would be very interesting indeed
I was counting on a rapid proto machine to be useful for so much that it would "substitute" for any number of sources we use now for a wide range of products. We (model railroaders) spend lots of money on locos, rolling stock, track, structures an so on. Add it all up and I'll bet the number would be substantial, maybe even enough to justify a machine. Not to mention the other uses(the napkin rings above) we would have for it. I do like the offsite idea though, especially for big stuff or materials that are not readily available. In any case, the independence from "big-time" manufacturers is what appeals to me. It'd be like the best of R-T-R and scratchbuilt all in one package.
vsmithI think it will take quite a while for the "Pocket Calculator Effect" to bring prices down to an anywhere reasonable level for the home modeler to ever own one of these. So perhaps instead of having a personal RP machine in your basement, perhaps an online service where you send in your model and specs desired, make your downpayment then its banged out with perhaps a online realtime feed to see the model testing, then its sent and you pay the final retainer on acceptance at delivery. The advantage is that 3D computer models are cheap to store, you can have 100s or 1000s to chose from, so if I want a Darjeeling Class B locomotive in On30 scale, it can be assembled from a kit of parts in the computers database on the RP machine, that would be very interesting indeed
Interesting point this one. There seems to be one firm that I'm regularly getting information from that appears to be heading in that general direction. Kind of intriguing that the rapid prototyping idea has picked up as the equipment has come down in price. The only problem is that I'm still not really impressed with the little rills that one gets as the piece is profiled. 3D computer models, however, are more interesting in that one can sort of set out kits in a modular form that much more quicker and can be more cost effective in some ways. One can set up a nice little cottage industry doing it this way.
Javelina You all have got me thinking. After reading some of these posts and going back to work on the milling machine I started doing mental comparisons to my trade, machining. Here's what I see happening, and I think we'll all be happier. (Or our children anyway) There's a huge trend in engineering towards "rapid prototyping" machines. I see the time in the not to far distant future where all you buy is a standadized motor and gearbox pack, a standard power pack (think rechargable tools, but smaller) and you design the rest. You've got the RP machine, cartridges of powdered plastic, nickel silver, brass, etc. You download a file from the net, or fire up the CAD program and do the design of your loco. Standard sub-files are available for details like drivers, truck frames and anything else that may be common to an era. Once you've got your design done, you download the program into the RP machine and get cracking. In a hour, you've got a still warm version, in whatever scale you desire, of the loco you want. A quick shot with low VOC paints for weathering and you're good to go. Who cares what BLI, Athearn, Walthers or any of the rest of them does. With a deal like this, you're your own manufacturer. If your buddy likes yours, you zap him the file and he makes one just like yours, but of course with the whistle, sandboxes and so on edited to suit his prototype. Cost? Right now, it's pretty pricey, and the materials are somewhat limited. Thing is, this technology is growing at an exponential rate. Just like so many of the things we take for granted now, demand and technology will make things possible in 10-20 years that we can only wish for today. Cool part is, if you model trains, your son models warships, and your wife wants new napkin rings for the party this weekend, everybody gets to play. The machine doesn't care what it makes, as long as it's within it's operating envelope. As soon as you're done with whatever you've made, you grind up the model and reuse the powder. Dropped it on the floor and broke it? Grind it up, load the file and make a new one. Sounds neat to me. Lou
You all have got me thinking. After reading some of these posts and going back to work on the milling machine I started doing mental comparisons to my trade, machining. Here's what I see happening, and I think we'll all be happier. (Or our children anyway)
There's a huge trend in engineering towards "rapid prototyping" machines. I see the time in the not to far distant future where all you buy is a standadized motor and gearbox pack, a standard power pack (think rechargable tools, but smaller) and you design the rest. You've got the RP machine, cartridges of powdered plastic, nickel silver, brass, etc. You download a file from the net, or fire up the CAD program and do the design of your loco. Standard sub-files are available for details like drivers, truck frames and anything else that may be common to an era. Once you've got your design done, you download the program into the RP machine and get cracking. In a hour, you've got a still warm version, in whatever scale you desire, of the loco you want. A quick shot with low VOC paints for weathering and you're good to go.
Who cares what BLI, Athearn, Walthers or any of the rest of them does. With a deal like this, you're your own manufacturer. If your buddy likes yours, you zap him the file and he makes one just like yours, but of course with the whistle, sandboxes and so on edited to suit his prototype.
Cost? Right now, it's pretty pricey, and the materials are somewhat limited. Thing is, this technology is growing at an exponential rate. Just like so many of the things we take for granted now, demand and technology will make things possible in 10-20 years that we can only wish for today. Cool part is, if you model trains, your son models warships, and your wife wants new napkin rings for the party this weekend, everybody gets to play. The machine doesn't care what it makes, as long as it's within it's operating envelope. As soon as you're done with whatever you've made, you grind up the model and reuse the powder. Dropped it on the floor and broke it? Grind it up, load the file and make a new one. Sounds neat to me.
Lou
2016: Intermountain Railway N scale SP Cab Forwards finally arrive.
MisterBeasley Yes, BLI, in accordance with Mayan prophecy, will announce the end of the world in 2012. In November of 2012, they will announce that the end of the world has slipped, and will happen at a some later time, To Be Announced.
Yes, BLI, in accordance with Mayan prophecy, will announce the end of the world in 2012. In November of 2012, they will announce that the end of the world has slipped, and will happen at a some later time, To Be Announced.
And they will be sued by another manufacturer who says he thought of the end of the world first.
Dave H. Painted side goes up. My website : wnbranch.com
As much as I'd hate to sound negative, CNJ and Iron rooster's scenarios eem most likely.
What I hope happens:
Vincent
Wants: 1. high-quality, sound equipped, SD40-2s, C636s, C30-7s, and F-units in BN. As for ones that don't cost an arm and a leg, that's out of the question....
2. An end to the limited-production and other crap that makes models harder to get and more expensive.
Quality plastic U25c's in ho
HO C636 (although that may be pushing it for 2010 maybe 2011)
The ability for throttles to show levels of fuel and water/coal will become more widespread
Athearn using led's (lol right)
blownout cylinderYou are, in a way, right. The point is that somewhere the idea of one GROWING the market was seemingly thrown out and in it's place we get this "bottom line" approach that really is not what we started with. FIRST we provided the goods/services and THEN--after we did our jobs so that clients came-- could we talk about profits. Now we look first at the ROI--determine the product--then push that.
Barry, I agree with you completely on the issue of growing the market rather than "milking" it, which is largely what is done now.
The problem has a lot to with private vs public investment. I doubt Mr Athearn had any stock holders to answer to back in the day.
And, when I complain (yes, I konw I do) about MTH and BLI and their marketing, I am actually complaining about the same issue. They want to control the market by forcing us to buy what they make, rather than making what we want.
Admittedly, some of us want different things, OK, Walthers, Bachmann, Athearn, Intermountain and long list of others seem to be able to offer products with different features and different price ranges for different segments of the market, dispite the current world economics - why can't BLI or MTH?
One they don't want to - they would rather tell us what we should have, its easier.
Two, at least in the case of BLI, I don't think they have enough working capital.
Sheldon
Strictly staying with the OP's question
As someone stated, more nanotechnology (like spinning exhaust fans)
DCC Throttle/Camera combination: Input type of loco, screen will appear with correct interior view of control stand and view from the windshield via a tiny camera so you can run your loco on your layout, just make sure you keep the windshield clean!
More accurate scenery products such as trees, crops, bushes.
More modular kits that move beyond brick as the building material.
Kits to completely assemble modules based on existing standards (NMRA, N-Trak, Free-Mo).
Ricky
Frankly, I do not like the picture painted here for the future of our hobby. I do hope that things will turn around and the hobby remains as enjoyable as it is today - with a wealth of different manufacturers catering to our various needs. To a degree, this is up to us, supporting manufacturers and local hobby shops of our choice. I really hate to see the hobby turning into a pastime of aging rich men...
RE 2012: "...Misinterpretation of the Mesoamerican Long Count calendar is the basis for a New Age belief that a cataclysm will take place on December 21, 2012. December 21, 2012 is simply the last day of the 13th b'ak'tun. But that is not the end of the Long Count because the 14th through 20th b'ak'tuns are still to come...." (from the Wikipedia)
RE the Hobby:
More RTR - Less Kits
More DCC - Less Analog
More On30 offerings - Less G scale offerings
More online ordering - Less Brick & Morter shops
and finally;
More longtimers dying off - Less newbies to replace them
ATLANTIC CENTRAL I guess I'm more optimistic than most of you, but as a self employed believer in capitalism, I have to be. Marklin, LGB, IHC or whoever are not "entitled" to stay in business, no more than anyone else in business in the whole history of the world. Markets change, companies evolve or die. Athearn has evolved, I think they are well positioned for the nex decade. BLI or MTH may want to decide who their customers really are and find out what those customers want.
I guess I'm more optimistic than most of you, but as a self employed believer in capitalism, I have to be.
Marklin, LGB, IHC or whoever are not "entitled" to stay in business, no more than anyone else in business in the whole history of the world. Markets change, companies evolve or die. Athearn has evolved, I think they are well positioned for the nex decade. BLI or MTH may want to decide who their customers really are and find out what those customers want.
You are, in a way, right. The point is that somewhere the idea of one GROWING the market was seemingly thrown out and in it's place we get this "bottom line" approach that really is not what we started with. FIRST we provided the goods/services and THEN--after we did our jobs so that clients came-- could we talk about profits. Now we look first at the ROI--determine the product--then push that.
But if we continue to do the "deer caught in the headlights" thing what we are seeing will happen. Time to think about what a "market" is--a thing with limited resources---or something that can change---hence grow
CNJ8317. Ready-made layout sections, fully scenicked and RTR, will become available, making the truly plug-and-play layout a reality...at a price. The same may be true of smaller but fully detailed, pre-built, layout industrial scenes that can be added to existing layouts. 8. The current dicotomy in the hobby will widen, with the craftsman aspect becoming universally regarded as a separate hobby from the RTR segment, just as occurred with scale and tin-plate in the 1950's. This will be likewise reflected in the two remaining major magazines, of which one will become essentially just for the RTR enthusiast, while the other will be aimed at the traditional hands-on modeler/craftsman. Both magazines may shrink to 6 issues a year. Most serious layout building/assembling information will come through the purchase of DVDs, or on-line downloads...part of the pay-as-you-go future Internet (i.e. no more free sites). 9. Model Railroader's circulation will drop below 90,000 and its page-count to 75, or less (unless it goes bi-monthly), be almost ad free and cost at least $9.95 per issue at the news stand...if it can be found their at all.
7. Ready-made layout sections, fully scenicked and RTR, will become available, making the truly plug-and-play layout a reality...at a price. The same may be true of smaller but fully detailed, pre-built, layout industrial scenes that can be added to existing layouts.
8. The current dicotomy in the hobby will widen, with the craftsman aspect becoming universally regarded as a separate hobby from the RTR segment, just as occurred with scale and tin-plate in the 1950's. This will be likewise reflected in the two remaining major magazines, of which one will become essentially just for the RTR enthusiast, while the other will be aimed at the traditional hands-on modeler/craftsman. Both magazines may shrink to 6 issues a year. Most serious layout building/assembling information will come through the purchase of DVDs, or on-line downloads...part of the pay-as-you-go future Internet (i.e. no more free sites).
9. Model Railroader's circulation will drop below 90,000 and its page-count to 75, or less (unless it goes bi-monthly), be almost ad free and cost at least $9.95 per issue at the news stand...if it can be found their at all.
#7 is already pretty much out there, although not a true "RTR" thing-- Woodland Scenics has a line of railroad modules that come complete with everything you need to set them up and scenic them-- at least to basic terrain / terraforming. And then they have a number of building kit "sets" (or maybe they're RTR, not sure) for industrial, light commercial, residential, etc. that you can add to them. Similar to their layout-in-a-box products.
#8 I don't think will happen quite the to the extent that you suggest and here's why-- I don't disagree that there is a widening gap between craftsmen and RTR'ers, but take it to the extreme-- the craftsmen will always have something to talk about and "do" that's worth reporting and circulating. What will the RTR'ers have? An RTR catalog? And hold that thought a sec...
#9 While MR's circulation might be declining (and I don't know if that's true or not, just going on your statement), I don't think it has to lose ad revenue-- if anything it could (and should anyway, IMO) *ADD* more ads, perhaps even include that whole RTR catalog from #8 above. Whatever works to sell the magazine and get the articles out there. MR, IMO, should do more to embrace the "new media" and integrate their print copy with the web and online media. MRH e-zine is showing them the way to a new and prosperous future, IMO. No need to discontinue the print edition. Frankly its a little unweildy trying to balance the laptop whilst on the throne, if you catch my drift...
But I personally REALLY REALLY ENJOY the ads-- truly I do. I like looking at them, seeing what's available, keeping up with a sense of the pricing and all that. And when the advertiser includes a link to something online, or if I'm accessing the copy via an online-enabled medium, I happily click on anything that strikes my fancy.
What the publishers of MR and their advertisers may not realize is that MR is a highly-focused and mostly self-selected group of *INTERESTED* potential customers. The best dollars an advertiser can ever hope to spend and the best kind of eyeballs a publisher can ever hope to offer.
Sell me something! I've got bucks and wanna spend 'em. Show me what I can buy.
(Seriously!)
That's my two-cents of course, others may have alternate opinions.
Sir Madog CNJ831, the picture you paint is a failrly bleak one, but I am afraid, your are not that far off, if current trends continue.
CNJ831,
the picture you paint is a failrly bleak one, but I am afraid, your are not that far off, if current trends continue.
The picture was bleak in 1934, but some how we made it to now.
People, all people everywhere, tend to look at history, the world and the future from the limited frame of reference of their own experiances.
The world is much bigger than any of us, and it will keep moving along.
The economies will improve, things will shift, but there is little chance of knowing exactly what those shifts will be.
CNJ8318. The current dicotomy in the hobby will widen, with the craftsman aspect becoming universally regarded as a separate hobby from the RTR segment, just as occurred with scale and tin-plate in the 1950's. This will be likewise reflected in the two remaining major magazines, of which one will become essentially just for the RTR enthusiast, while the other will be aimed at the traditional hands-on modeler/craftsman. Both magazines may shrink to 6 issues a year. Most serious layout building/assembling information will come through the purchase of DVDs, or on-line downloads...part of the pay-as-you-go future Internet (i.e. no more free sites).
There is already talk of pay-as-you-go Internet sites now. A couple of them are charging "membership" now---part of that growing "market". I could also see most MR magazines being quarterly--at 80-100 pages and premium prices.
As for that dichotomy I suspect we will see what could be seen in some places in Europe---MR and Fine Scale.
CNJ8315. The consolidation of the major manufacturers will continue. By the end of the decade little beyond Atlas, Walthers, and Horizon will remain. The continuing search for cheaper off-shore builders will be complicated by quality control problems
I think the QA issue will kill that outsourcing --- either that or you'll see a further drop in quality as end-user repairs become "normal" It may in fact force hobbyists out completely as they discover that there still needs be some form of hands on being done, or, some people discover the joy in fiddling/tinkering and start up "garages" to repair locomotives for others. The idea of Africa being the last bastion of cheap labour may already be problematic as there is a sort of movement now to get workers there up to speed on their own rights---
CNJ8317. Ready-made layout sections, fully scenicked and RTR, will become available, making the truly plug-and-play layout a reality...at a price. The same may be true of smaller but fully detailed, pre-built, layout industrial scenes that can be added to existing layouts.
Interesting thing about the diorama idea being already built---we already have the platforms for this very thing now---give it about 3 years and we'll see this. Would there be even domino layouts?
Basically what we are seeing is a market being strangled by restricting--instead of GROWING--that market. This will be the way it'll go--
---unless some of us start rejigging our sharpened pencils and GROW our own market--