NittanyLion Hansel Having a computer run your trains? Half of the fun is the control we have of the locomotives and the train. Heck you might as well not have any model trains and sit and use software and on a PC. But on the other side of the coin, wouldn't it be pretty neat if you had a nice big basement layout where the rest of the trains out there on the main and yards were completely under AI control? You could still be running your peddler freight while keeping out of the way of the passengers and the through freights, but they'd be working to do the same with each other. Yeah you can do a lot of that already, but I'm imagining far more complex actions by the computer controlled trains. Like the AI yard switchers putting together the next train (RFID tags in the cars) for you while you're off doing something else.
Hansel Having a computer run your trains? Half of the fun is the control we have of the locomotives and the train. Heck you might as well not have any model trains and sit and use software and on a PC.
Having a computer run your trains? Half of the fun is the control we have of the locomotives and the train. Heck you might as well not have any model trains and sit and use software and on a PC.
But on the other side of the coin, wouldn't it be pretty neat if you had a nice big basement layout where the rest of the trains out there on the main and yards were completely under AI control? You could still be running your peddler freight while keeping out of the way of the passengers and the through freights, but they'd be working to do the same with each other. Yeah you can do a lot of that already, but I'm imagining far more complex actions by the computer controlled trains. Like the AI yard switchers putting together the next train (RFID tags in the cars) for you while you're off doing something else.
I thought that Bruce Chubb's Computer/Model Railroad Interface from the mid-80's was supposed to do this same scenario. Is that incorrect?
Keith Baker
The future is happening and will continue to happen. Not to worry.
Rich
If you ever fall over in public, pick yourself up and say “sorry it’s been a while since I inhabited a body.” And just walk away.
MRC makes there decoders work right.
Someone makes a high-quality (atlas, P2k, genesis, etc) C30-7, C636, and SD40-2 in plastic with sound DCC.
Upgraded manufacuering techniques make stuff cost less, if the manufactuers don't go on the limited production crap even harder.
Athearn or some other companies bring back inexpensive kits (BB kits or similar). Locomotive kits of a similar variety also come around.
Some figures on the layouts will be sentient nanobots, who then sue you because your model train hit them as they were walking on the tracks even after you wailed on the horn and/or whistle.
About the CNC machine that makes a loco out of barstock, I'd be first in line.
Vincent
Wants: 1. high-quality, sound equipped, SD40-2s, C636s, C30-7s, and F-units in BN. As for ones that don't cost an arm and a leg, that's out of the question....
2. An end to the limited-production and other crap that makes models harder to get and more expensive.
I thought I saw an article of a modeler who already employed the RC concept in a recent issue of MR. He said his batteries last about 2 hours before recharging, which seems pretty long, for now.
Just my $0.02
There's going to be a huge glut in the used model market, and places like e-Bay will become even more popular than they already are now. The local hobby shop as we (used to) know will be dead, and the few remaining ones will rarely be "trains only".
If the economy continues to limp along for another 20 years, I predict with a little on line work, most will be able to find good hardly-used models for a good price in the future.
MAbruce Good points - but I actually didn't have the GPS system in mind. Maybe I should have called it a 'LPS' Local Positioning System that can be set up for a small area (like a layout).
Good points - but I actually didn't have the GPS system in mind. Maybe I should have called it a 'LPS' Local Positioning System that can be set up for a small area (like a layout).
I suppose a local area network could be utilized to accomplish this. It could consist of two stationary base transceivers that continually broadcast their positions via radio or cellular wave form. This would allow a triangulated and corrected position to be calculated to the mobile unit (receiver equipped locomotive). This would be even more accurate with a third stationary transceiver mouted in the ceiling to account for differences in elevation. This is indeed a possibility, and a thought provoking one as well.
Trace ForkMAbruce GPS-like systems will be available so your computer will be able to precisely track trains on your layout. This will enhance automatic and remote operations. This I fear, is still a long way off. There has been an effort afoot for years to modify the GPS signal. Currently, the GPS broadcast is a low power-wide bandwidth signal, thus does not penetrate tree canopy well (let alone a roof). As the constellation of satellites is replaced, the intent is to replace those satellites that go off line with vehicles that are capable of the modified broadcast signal. The main trouble is that most of the vehicles currently in orbit have already out lived their projected life expectancy, some by as much as 100%. Replacing a 400 million dollar satellite that is still functioning, with a billion dollar satellite is just not going to happen quickly, if at all. The tax payer would revolt. Further, all affordable GPS receivers have one big shortfall that prohibit precise positioning. THE CLOCK. The survey grade GPS receivers that I utilize at work each have a highly precise clock. This clock alone costs $2000.00, and these receivers, which cost in excess of $20000.00, still rely on the broadcast ephemeris file (the mathmatical orbit of the satellite constellation). The precise ephemeris file is not available for civilian use until a week after GPS observations are conducted. These two factors render recreational grade GPS receivers accurate to no more than 100 feet or so, assuming ideal conditions. This is a great idea, and could be quite useful in many areas including model railroading. As much as I would like to, I just don’t see it for several generations. By the time these issues are addressed, there may will be an alternative method available.
MAbruce GPS-like systems will be available so your computer will be able to precisely track trains on your layout. This will enhance automatic and remote operations.
GPS-like systems will be available so your computer will be able to precisely track trains on your layout. This will enhance automatic and remote operations.
This I fear, is still a long way off. There has been an effort afoot for years to modify the GPS signal. Currently, the GPS broadcast is a low power-wide bandwidth signal, thus does not penetrate tree canopy well (let alone a roof). As the constellation of satellites is replaced, the intent is to replace those satellites that go off line with vehicles that are capable of the modified broadcast signal. The main trouble is that most of the vehicles currently in orbit have already out lived their projected life expectancy, some by as much as 100%. Replacing a 400 million dollar satellite that is still functioning, with a billion dollar satellite is just not going to happen quickly, if at all. The tax payer would revolt. Further, all affordable GPS receivers have one big shortfall that prohibit precise positioning. THE CLOCK. The survey grade GPS receivers that I utilize at work each have a highly precise clock. This clock alone costs $2000.00, and these receivers, which cost in excess of $20000.00, still rely on the broadcast ephemeris file (the mathmatical orbit of the satellite constellation). The precise ephemeris file is not available for civilian use until a week after GPS observations are conducted. These two factors render recreational grade GPS receivers accurate to no more than 100 feet or so, assuming ideal conditions. This is a great idea, and could be quite useful in many areas including model railroading. As much as I would like to, I just don’t see it for several generations. By the time these issues are addressed, there may will be an alternative method available.
This I fear, is still a long way off. There has been an effort afoot for years to modify the GPS signal. Currently, the GPS broadcast is a low power-wide bandwidth signal, thus does not penetrate tree canopy well (let alone a roof). As the constellation of satellites is replaced, the intent is to replace those satellites that go off line with vehicles that are capable of the modified broadcast signal. The main trouble is that most of the vehicles currently in orbit have already out lived their projected life expectancy, some by as much as 100%. Replacing a 400 million dollar satellite that is still functioning, with a billion dollar satellite is just not going to happen quickly, if at all. The tax payer would revolt.
Further, all affordable GPS receivers have one big shortfall that prohibit precise positioning. THE CLOCK. The survey grade GPS receivers that I utilize at work each have a highly precise clock. This clock alone costs $2000.00, and these receivers, which cost in excess of $20000.00, still rely on the broadcast ephemeris file (the mathmatical orbit of the satellite constellation). The precise ephemeris file is not available for civilian use until a week after GPS observations are conducted. These two factors render recreational grade GPS receivers accurate to no more than 100 feet or so, assuming ideal conditions.
This is a great idea, and could be quite useful in many areas including model railroading. As much as I would like to, I just don’t see it for several generations. By the time these issues are addressed, there may will be an alternative method available.
Bioengineering is going to evolve us two extra arms and hands and that will make everything easier. I will predict, however, that our proverbial complaint of needing "an extra hand" will never die!
From the far, far reaches of the wild, wild west I am: rtpoteet
Well so far petty good. Since '85' we've seen better super glues,laser cut kits,much improved electronics,such as DCC,special effects modules,programmable sound,improved LEDs for lighting effects. Sophisticated paper models, computer aided drawing and artwwork for paper models etc.Radio control is already popular with the outdoor railroaders.
I don't think anything will replace mans need to physically build miniatures. We'll probably always need glue and paint and tools to build our dreams with.I like the idea of a home laser cutter. There are some available but they're not cheap. Maybe just a laser scalpel that we can burn holes in our fingers and clothes.
I think the guys who like to do computer projects are a little different than those of us who like to physically build things. Kinda like the difference between photographers and painters.
I like the computer generated operation schedules though. Helps the imagination. BILL
blownout cylinder NittanyLion HarryHotspur Virtual model railroading will replace actual model railroading, and everyone can have an exact replica of their favorite prototype. No longer will we be confined by space limitations. This I'd actually pretty harshly disagree with. Of course, this always assumes that the technology and software levels are static-----I'm never so sure that it always will be as difficult---
NittanyLion HarryHotspur Virtual model railroading will replace actual model railroading, and everyone can have an exact replica of their favorite prototype. No longer will we be confined by space limitations. This I'd actually pretty harshly disagree with.
HarryHotspur Virtual model railroading will replace actual model railroading, and everyone can have an exact replica of their favorite prototype. No longer will we be confined by space limitations.
Virtual model railroading will replace actual model railroading, and everyone can have an exact replica of their favorite prototype. No longer will we be confined by space limitations.
This I'd actually pretty harshly disagree with.
Of course, this always assumes that the technology and software levels are static-----I'm never so sure that it always will be as difficult---
Here we have a classic case of, "Let your fingers (on mouse or keyboard) do the walking," versus "It isn't fun unless I can get my mitts into the machinery." If your tastes run to the latter, what grand new bells and whistles are added to vertch software won't amount to a blown transistor.
On the subject of surprise situations at random times, it doesn't take a computer to generate them. Anyone who operates with car cards and waybills can add, "Jokers," to the card deck - anything from a herd of cows on the track to a boiler explosion... The capability has existed for a LONG time, it just hasn't been worked up in the model press.
For the future, I see model railroading following the same path as model shipbuilding. Everybody claims it's about to disappear, but it just keeps getting stronger and more diversified. The mere fact that toy trains (except for Thomas and friends) are no longer centerpieces in department store Christmas displays won't make as big a difference as we seem to think. When was the last time you saw a kit for HMS Victory or USS Constitution in a toy store?
As far as specific changes, improvements, trends... I'd like to answer, but my crystal ball is all clouded up...
Chuck (Modeling Central Japan in September, 1964 - with Joker waybills)
Overall I see more aspects of modeling moving closer to 'instant' in order to save on time and effort. That's the way things have been trending up to today.
Loco's will likely go wireless and be powered by small fuel cells. This would eliminate track conductivity issues and locos would mimic their prototypes by needing to be refueled.
Rolling stock will have chips to control their couplers.
Generous federal & state MRR funding and tax credits will become available.
Okay, maybe that last one is much more of a wish...
I can see an increased physical/virtual interface emerging. Mico optical sensors on board the locomotive will transmit and project (on multiple computer screens? holograms?) into a 3D environement for the operator who will be inside a virtual cab (that changes with the type of locomotive being controlled), enabling him to see and interact with the actual layout through the virtual cab windows.
Nanotechnology advances will produce scale-sized microbot brakemen who will walk the layout and uncouple cars.
Locos will be powered by small fusion generators hidden in the boilers & fuel tanks, providing years of maintenance-free service.
"I am lapidary but not eristic when I use big words." - William F. Buckley
I haven't been sleeping. I'm afraid I'll dream I'm in a coma and then wake up unconscious. -Stephen Wright
Reminds me of the movie Back to the Future 3. Get rid of your track because the trains will fly. And then time travel. Of course that will explain why my Dash-8 is traveling through downtown Chicago in 1920 with steamers all around.
So, the next quarter-century mark for MR will come in 2034. Let's see. Chances are, I'll still be alive and complaining, but getting along to the caboose of life.
The allure of wireless will dim, as more and more of the available wireless spectrum gets filled and oversubscribed with communications, garage door openers and gaming systems. Instead, those who want rock-solid reliability will return to tethered throttles.
My layout will grow and shrink several times, as children and then grandchildren "move back in" with the parental units to deal with the rocky economy ahead.
Sorry, I don't see the battery thing. We'll still be running on NS track, possibly treated with something to keep it cleaner and improve connectivity, but battery-powered trains will be poor performers and will eventually be rejected.
The pile of unbuilt models in my workroom will grow larger. A few of them will get built, though.
Sound will improve dramatically. The huge consumer market for personal, iPod-sized headphones will drive small-scale speaker technology forward. Our bulky speakers-in-baffles that make sound installation so awkward will give way to thin audio transducer arrays, making sound in N-scale and even Z-scale a reality, with better quality than we have in HO now.
The stuff I ordered from Internet Trains last month will finally be shipped.
And the last "Ooops" will be recorded in 2031.
It takes an iron man to play with a toy iron horse.
Any argument carried far enough will end up in Semantics--Hartz's law of rhetoric Emerald. Leemer and Southern The route of the Sceptre Express Barry
I just started my blog site...more stuff to come...
http://modeltrainswithmusic.blogspot.ca/
In my college years, which weren't that long ago, I'd gone off to other interests. One of these was getting big into Microsoft's Flight Simulator series. I was particularly involved in airliner repaints and a few terrain modifications. A lot like what virtual model railroading would be like. Had an undecorated aircraft with panel lines and such, that I had to "paint." A 3D model of a building I drew in a CAD program, then textured. Laid out taxiways, ramps, runways, etc in a CAD-like interface. Then loaded it all into the flight sim. All full scale. My biggest projects were Naval Air Station Pensacola and everything within about five miles of P'cola and roughly 50 miles of the Outer Banks. Its not the same. Yeah its easier to share and other people can directly enjoy your work without having to come into my basement or look at a simple photograph. But its a *** lot of work actually. And you get to redo it every two years! Big huge projects everyone wonders about futureproofing your airport or whatever, because the next version might handle altitude calcuations or a texture differently.
FS2000, 2002, 2004, and X all had a similar engine but handled things differently. FS2002/2004 didn't have a spherical earth and had a several trillion sided cylinder for a planet. So you could do special runway markings by placing a texture with transparency an inch over the runway to mimmick it being painted on. FSX introduced a true spherical earth. That crushed that trick right into electronic rubble. FS2002/2004 aircraft could work in X but for some reason, effects like propellers in motion would render behind trees and clouds, which looked quite bizarre. But if you viewed your aircraft from the outside, your cockpit glass would disappear. It looked kinda funny. And there was nothing you could do about it. As I've fallen out of it and don't know if it came to pass, FSXI was slated to be a complete rebuild and render most of our mods completely obselete.
These are all things I don't have to deal with with a little plastic cube painted to look like a house.
Readily available, good quality sound in N-scale. Jamie
CLICK HERE FOR THE CSX DIXIE LINE BLOG
There's nothing more certain than change and most predictions for the future of our bobby are based on what may be described as wisheful thinking. This is not to denegrate those opinions for they include natural optomism and optomism is what sustains us. It's a younger cousin of - Hope That Springs Eternal.
What ever the future may bring to our hobby it's a safe bet that those who have driven the hobby so far - the post war baby boomers, will have long left their models behind and gone on to a far greater cause - subject to personal belief, that is.
Those who remain will be in possession of the means to drive the hobby in what ever direction it takes. I wish all of our younger modelers all the very best in this and that those who sustain the hobby with products and services will do so as a contribution to our hobbies continuing longevity.
Personaly, I am unable to make any worthwhile predictions as to where the hobby will head off to in the future. There is too much general uncertainty in the world today that can have an impact on even the humble world that model railroaders inhabit with their hobby for us to be certain about much. All I am prepared to allow myself is that I should enjoy our hobby the best I can - help others where it is possible and turn a deaf ear to those I am not in step with.
Whatever happens in the future that determines the characture of model railraoding then I hope that it will give much fun and pleasure in the hearts of those who are left to carry on the tradition. To those who have a sense of maintining an interest in history and sharing their knowledge with others, then the hobby will be in good heart what ever aids are offered by manufactueres to make our pikes run better or more efficiently.
One thing for sure is that those who drive the various demands for technological change in this hobby will need to ensure that none of what they offer will create expensive niche's that can be poulated only by the wealthy and that in making changes they will not take much of the fun out of what we love to do now and try and sell it back to us again.
Bruce
steemtrayn A CNC machine will be available that will produce any locomotive you want out of brass barstock. All you will have to dfo is insert the brass, scan the drawings and push a button.
A CNC machine will be available that will produce any locomotive you want out of brass barstock. All you will have to dfo is insert the brass, scan the drawings and push a button.
Should see the prototyping machines that are doing this now---if only they could get made a little less expensive---------
This is funny, I was just reading the April 1984 MR last night. Great article on making corrugated siding out of aluminum foil. It also has a story on the Mojave Western by this forum's Pastor Bob! Anyways, I was reading the letters to the editor and some familiar themes were present: The hobby is dying because everybody is getting old and everything is too darn expensive. I'm sure that the same thing will be said 25 years from now!
Why hasn't anybody mentioned the human shrinkage machine? This way we can ride our O/S/HO/N trains around our insta-layouts and control them from our laptops that we shrunk as well! Awww, that may be a few years off.
I agree the future is with RC. I also believe that on board cameras and remote PC control will be popular in the next few years. I believe club meetings will be done remotely using the internet. 10-2 people from anywhere in the world could log onto one site where the layout is located. Via on board cameras, as well as cameras located around the layout each person will have control of one locomotive. Communication will also be done via the web using headsets. I'm sure the technology already exists to do this but no one has attempted it yet.
As for books in file format. That already exists. My mother in law has a Sony book reader. It is awesome. Super clear screen, a charge that lasts 1700 page turns and room for an SD card to store a complete library. She logs onto electronic books stores all over the world and downloads books. She can also "borrow" ebooks from the local library. Neat stuff!
Todd
andrechapelonWhat won't change is the complaining. For every 2 layouts built, 38 people will complain that the high cost of the hobby keeps them from participating. Enjoy Paul No, no, no. You're off by one order of magnitude. For every 2 layouts built, 380 people will complain that the high cost of the hobby keeps them from participating. What those 380 won't tell you is that 25% of them own a $30k bass boat, 30% a $50k pickup truck and 55% a 3,000 sq ft McMansion that they used like an ATM until the real estate bubble burst. However, there will be good news. There will still be only one individual who will complain that everything was better in 1955. Andre
What won't change is the complaining. For every 2 layouts built, 38 people will complain that the high cost of the hobby keeps them from participating.
Enjoy
Paul
No, no, no. You're off by one order of magnitude. For every 2 layouts built, 380 people will complain that the high cost of the hobby keeps them from participating.
What those 380 won't tell you is that 25% of them own a $30k bass boat, 30% a $50k pickup truck and 55% a 3,000 sq ft McMansion that they used like an ATM until the real estate bubble burst.
However, there will be good news. There will still be only one individual who will complain that everything was better in 1955.
Andre
Darn right! I can't even afford to THINK about this stuff....
:)
Dave
Just be glad you don't have to press "2" for English.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zQ_ALEdDUB8
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hqFS1GZL4s
http://s73.photobucket.com/user/steemtrayn/media/MovingcoalontheDCM.mp4.html?sort=3&o=27
Instant layout, just add water.
Perhaps locos with more room so I can add sound and other extras without the hassle.
Peter
andrechapelonHowever, there will be good news. There will still be only one individual who will complain that everything was better in 1955.
I beg to differ---there will be one individual who will be complaining the best of times was in----get ready for this---1975
Got to keep with the generational factor here---
All modelling, RTR, DCC, DC and all that will be nullified by holographic projections upon ANY surface you can imagine-----don't go there---Any configuration would be possible b/c reality itself will no longer be the ONLY one to be prototyped. Virtual reality? HAH!!! More like Hyperreality----or summat
- Harry