This thread has been entertaining, but it is no longer contributing new thoughts or discoveries. Instead, we are rehashing old and familiar territory, including getting mired in the same tiring arguments and tensions that arise from the usual polarity.
Long way of saying, we've done this. We have turned a thread about the future into one about the past. So, it's history.
-Crandell
BRAVO!!!!!
Through this posting I have developed a new sense of respect for your talents! Your sense of introspection is worthy of notable admiration! There is a Japanese proverb which states that "He who chases two hares will catch neither." I have never tried to master performing two tasks simultaneosly but you obviously have developed the unique skill of watching yourself in front of a mirror shaving while at the same time composing subjective speculation on your computer. Please take pride and joy for your mastery of the true art of magniloquence!
Again BRAVO!!!!!
Relax, man. The Wrath Of POD is directed primarily at me since I'm usually the one that falls on the floor convulsed with laughter and does so publicly.
I'd love to participate further in this little coffee klatch, but the missus and I are leaving shortly for a transcontinental road trip, which will include a couple of days at the Mid-South Live Steamers meet in Columbia, TN. I'm not a live steamer, but I have a friend in Kentucky who is. Ought to be fun.
I'm kind of amazed that this thread hasn't been put out of its misery, although that'll probably happen sooner rather than later.
Here's a question to ponder. What actually constitutes a serious model railroader? When I ask myself the question, the only thing that comes back is the image of F. Murray Abraham's rendition of Antonio Salieri in "Amadeus".
Andre
CNJ831IRONROOSTER Sorry, but battery power is on the way out. http://www.popsci.com/scitech/article/2008-01/electricity-air. Wireless electricity is the future. Unless something better comes along. Enjoy Paul Unfortunately, that's what Nikola Tesla (perhaps the greatest genius of the past 300 years) also claimed...back in the 1920's or early 30's...and he couldn't even come close to accomplishing it! And guess what? We're still using batteries and in tens of thousands of applications more than in Tesla's time. ... CNJ831
IRONROOSTER Sorry, but battery power is on the way out. http://www.popsci.com/scitech/article/2008-01/electricity-air. Wireless electricity is the future. Unless something better comes along. Enjoy Paul
Sorry, but battery power is on the way out. http://www.popsci.com/scitech/article/2008-01/electricity-air. Wireless electricity is the future. Unless something better comes along.
Enjoy
Paul
Unfortunately, that's what Nikola Tesla (perhaps the greatest genius of the past 300 years) also claimed...back in the 1920's or early 30's...and he couldn't even come close to accomplishing it! And guess what? We're still using batteries and in tens of thousands of applications more than in Tesla's time.
...
CNJ831
The difference is that now it's actually being done.
CNJ831 . . . . . . . . . . a large number of blowhards and individuals with scant knowledge of a subject usually with little of value to add to any discussion . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . a large number of blowhards and individuals with scant knowledge of a subject usually with little of value to add to any discussion . . . . . . . . . .
CNJ831 For the pretenders and their posts, I have no sense of humor. Neither do I for people who make inane comments in response to serious posts . . . . . . . . . .
For the pretenders and their posts, I have no sense of humor. Neither do I for people who make inane comments in response to serious posts . . . . . . . . . .
You need to change your choice of breakfast drink from vinegar to orange juice; your disposition will show a significant improvement by doing so!
CNJ831 . . . . . . . . . . those who never post information that checks out against the facts, or folks who claim knowledge and broad experience but never seem to have ever posted a single example of their own modeling expertise in these pages.
. . . . . . . . . . those who never post information that checks out against the facts, or folks who claim knowledge and broad experience but never seem to have ever posted a single example of their own modeling expertise in these pages.
I have been cautioned by good ol' Bergie on a couple of occasions reminding me that this is a model railroad forum and not an English101 forum. If your definition of "blowhard" includes correct spelling and complete and properly punctuated spelling then I will proudly proclaim myself as one of those "blowhards" I will also proclaim myself to be deficient in
. . . . . . . . . . knowledge and broad experience . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . modeling expertise . . . . . . . . . .
I will tender one example before closing--which is probably the most profound element of this posting:
Every since I joined the forum three years ago scenery construction has been a primary topic of discussion; in that vein much has been said about foam. Already immensely popular, had this topic been raised ten or more years ago foam would have been one of those futuristic materials for our model railroad community. I have never used the stuff as I readily acknowledge when I offer a "blowhard" opinion on that subject of its use; the one time I would have used it perhaps I couldn't find it so I returned to the use of hardshell scenery which has been my material of choice over nearly three decades.
I have always tendered this "blowhard" opinion on this subject: with hardshell if I don't like existing scenery I can cut out that portion and reform it; the same can, of course, be done with foam. But if I still don't like things I can just cut and reform evem to the point of returning to the way it initially was. What do you do with foam construction in this regard? The answer seems to be: "You cut out the errant section and rebuild with new foam cuttings" which is fine but at the expense of this stuff foam scenery seems to be just a little on the expensive side. I think I will remain a hardshell scenery modeler; I've used it long enough to be comfortable with it. But that is just my "blowhard" opinion!
The newbie seeking advice on scenery is going to be presented with alternatives and he--or she--can evaluated the merits of expressed opinion!
From the far, far reaches of the wild, wild west I am: rtpoteet
While I'm not in agreement with most of what CNJ has stated (or the tone in which some of it was presented or at least received), I'm thankful to him for provoking a very thoughtful and engaging exchange of ideas.
Sadly, I see that there is a segment of this hobby that has come to take itself so seriously that it's lost the ability to see any other way to take part in the hobby. My personal layout is modest in size, follows no specific prototype in terms of date, location, equipment, or operation. While I'm no slouch, my modeling skill is modest, my hobby budget even less so. I spend a sum total of a couple of hours a week on the layout (if I'm lucky). In context of CNJ's argument about a stratification of the hobby into (and I paraphrase here) the "good" modelers and the pretender/novice/newbies, I wouldn't consider myself to fall into either of those categories. I suspect that the overwhelming majority of modelers would claim the same. It is my strong belief that manufacturers will continue to recognize that reality and continue to offer increasingly detailed and well-running modestly-priced products. A $100 locomotive to me is still a very expensive locomotive (I own none so pricey), and Atlas and Spectrum are as top-of-the line as I need or want.
Perhaps the hobby will stratify, but I see that separation being between an increasingly shrinking, specific, expensive high-end niche and the "everyman" affordable mass production offerings.
"I am lapidary but not eristic when I use big words." - William F. Buckley
I haven't been sleeping. I'm afraid I'll dream I'm in a coma and then wake up unconscious. -Stephen Wright
CNJ831If one looks around the Internet, it will be rather quickly perceived that while the larger model railroading forums are overwhelmingly comprised of newbie and novice-level hobbyists, there are an increasing number of smaller sites/forums dedicated almost exclusively to advanced/serious model railroaders. One will also note that the later sort of individuals now rarely participate in any numbers on the "general" forums (they did formerly), while the less accomplished hobbyists don't usually stay long in the advanced venues, other than perhaps as silent lurkers. Likewise, the sort and complexity of modeling displayed on the two types of forums is usually astoundingly different
An interesting aside--some sociologists recently noted that something along a skill divide has in some ways created a kind of 'cliquishness' amongst groups usually not formerly associated with this sort of issue. I see some of this in MRR as well. In any 'fringe' or 'minority' group( in the case of 'minority' think in terms of small numbers ONLY) there usually would be some kind of underlying fractiousness, or setting up of camps. So what we've seen in some forum groups isn't all that new--but what is somewhat disturbing is this split between those with huge amounts of skill and the noobie/novice. If there is to be a MRR as a viable hobby then one is going to have to start thinking out of the box as to how one is to deal with that aspect. Oh, BTW, this is seen even in what I do as a sideline--antique dealing--think MRR is bad for this? You ain't seen nothin' like some cattish things at some fleamarkets I've been through/in
CNJ831Clearly, a situation that has been hard to miss over the past dozen years or so, is the hobby's magazines spliting into two distinct camps relative to the customer base/hobbyist modeling level they are aiming at. This has been to such a degree that the advertisers have aligned themselves almost exclusively to one or the other and the advertisers differ probably 90% in the two magazine types.
Again, in the antique area--I seem to seeing the dang magazines splitting off like amoeba. One used to talk about 'Depression Glass'--now we've got Carnival Depression Glass vs Mercury Depression Glass vs on and on--as for the differing advertisers--could some of this be a phenomenon related to a certain MRR editor?---I recall seeing a drop somewhat related to this---
CNJ831None of the above situations were nearly so commonplace prior to the last generation of hobbyists. Before that most shared the same sort of basic models and modeling skills, along with there being a much narrower range in skill levels between novice and advanced.
This, on its own, brings up a whole series of questions that are interrelated. One being a sort of decline in the respect one had for each other and all that THAT ALONE asks of us. If any hobby let alone society is to survive then maybe that respect issue has to be addressed. The sharing of knowledge as to how things could be made et cetera is one of the best ways to build confidence and skill sets in the novice---something we sometimes forget. Afterall many, if not most of the serious modelllers started on THEIR road as children----
Any argument carried far enough will end up in Semantics--Hartz's law of rhetoric Emerald. Leemer and Southern The route of the Sceptre Express Barry
I just started my blog site...more stuff to come...
http://modeltrainswithmusic.blogspot.ca/
This is hard for people to hear. It's almost heresy...and that's why it's time for a style change. When an artistic viewpoint becomes artistic dogma, it is time to move on...not to reject it, but to synthesize it with what the style itself rejected. The best model railroads of today, I think, combine the authenticity of this style with the energy and creativity of earlier styles.
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That's not saying much..Many of today's "super" layouts will be considered "cruel" in the years to come as the hobby advances-even the common modeler will turn out super layouts thanks to prebuilt structures,preweathered cars and locomotives,user friendly scenery material and the computer..We are already seeing pictures used as backdrops by some of the leading modelers..
There are exciting times ahead in the hobby..
Larry
Conductor.
Summerset Ry.
"Stay Alert, Don't get hurt Safety First!"
CNJ831 Based on what has been seen over the past 15 years, I would have to say that the cost of the hobby will soar over just the next decade. Basic steam locomotives will surely top $500 per, with the equivalent of todays better models commanding $1,000 to $1,500 each. The age of "plastic brass" is coming. Likewise, expect to see the production/release of entire specific trains become a standard, rather the just locos and rolling stock sold separately, of course at truly astronomical prices. Major increases in pricing will also be precipitated by the progressive passing of first the older Baby Boomers (the heart of the hobby today) and then that entire generation and thus progressively narrowing the market; the rapid rise of oversea's production costs and shipping; the excessive demand for ever higher detail in models, and the manufacturers' concept of ever smaller runs and charging as much as the traffic will possibly bear.
Based on what has been seen over the past 15 years, I would have to say that the cost of the hobby will soar over just the next decade. Basic steam locomotives will surely top $500 per, with the equivalent of todays better models commanding $1,000 to $1,500 each. The age of "plastic brass" is coming. Likewise, expect to see the production/release of entire specific trains become a standard, rather the just locos and rolling stock sold separately, of course at truly astronomical prices. Major increases in pricing will also be precipitated by the progressive passing of first the older Baby Boomers (the heart of the hobby today) and then that entire generation and thus progressively narrowing the market; the rapid rise of oversea's production costs and shipping; the excessive demand for ever higher detail in models, and the manufacturers' concept of ever smaller runs and charging as much as the traffic will possibly bear.
CNJ:
Tesla is my hero. He may not have achieved his wireless-power dream, but he set the record for manmade lightning while trying!
Incidentally, the two guys in the famous squash court with axes were, IIRC, supposed to chop the control-rod rope to scram the reactor, if something went sour. I agree 100% on battery development. We've even seen some. People are blase about Li-ion batteries in electronics nowadays, but they'd have seemed like a miracle device a few years back.
I think the cost-rise you mention will happen, but I don't think it will affect the entire hobby. I think it will be similar to brass...this equipment will have a rapidly rising price, but will be sold to a shrinking niche, and will become less relevant to the majority of hobbyists as this goes on. Meanwhile, most of us will continue to use the modestly priced equipment, whoever is making it, maybe with one or two luxury models. Of course, I fully intend to do my part to promote economy. Such as it is.
Now, what will be interesting is where the hobby's declared spokespeople will go. What would have happened if, a few years back, they had followed brass? They'd have seen their audience shrink and shrink to the most affluent faction of the hobby...that's not something a magazine or other forum can really afford to do. We'll probably see history repeat itself here - the high-end stuff will still be covered and reviewed, but largely absent from the other pages, much like brass is today.
(Yes, there are brass models in the magazine articles today, but compare the current state to a magazine from the 1960s, where it was all over the place, and Bill Schopp was kitbashing brass locos in his RMC column. It's jewelry now.)
We are ready for a style change. The generally sanctioned style today, whether it's prototype-based or Koester's "prototype freelancing", is highly restrictive. This style demands adherence to standards of specific railroads or real-world regions, and actually goes further, because it encourages that we use the most mundane or typical standards when freelancing. It is a strong hindrance to creativity. What if the only fiction allowed was historical fiction? What if the only art allowed was photorealism? Furthermore, one major reason for this style (read TK's columns, or old RMC editorials) is an assumed relevance to observers, which will gain their respect. Not everybody cares about this, and anyway, a truly great work of art doesn't need to depend on preconditioned observers; it reaches out and creates its own relevance.
One reason this style has outlived its natural lifespan is that garden railroading and the n30 gauges have provided a sort of safety valve...but I think it is time we merged some of that creativity back into the parent company.
Once any development program gets unlimited federal funding, development typically skyrockets. Look at the development of nuclear energy once it became a government project. On December 1, 1942 nuclear fission was just a theory. The next day, in Chicago, the first primative nuclear pile, so primative, in fact, that its emergency shutdown was in the hands to two men with axes who were suposed to rush in and chop the thing appart if control was lost (!!!!!!), proved that theory. Just exactly a dozen years later, the first nuclear powered submarine was at sea. The same sort of things occurred during the space race of the 1960's. Be assured, you're are going to see the very same thing again with the push for battery development between now and 2015.
CNJ831,I agree there will be "super" modelers in the coming years and we will see a slight growth in this type of modeling due today's models,scenery techniques and instant research via the Internet but,as long as this remains a hobby the common modeler will remain the dominant species.
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One might further infer a growing separation from the proliferation of non-clubs in recent years and a decline in larger clubs. The former groups are usually comprised of a relatively small number, or tight clique, of advanced modelers/operators, not an across the board mix of hobbyists with widely differing skill levels. The latter group seems more often found among the membership of large formal clubs, where interest and the sophistication of modeling is often (but certainly not always) of a lower level.
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I not to sure about that..I have visited many clubs/attended open houses over the past 5 years and I don't see much of a divided camp...I seen Bachmann running along side the latest sound equipped locomotive...I think there is more hype on forums then in real life.
Of course there is a difference between a do nothing club and a active club.
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If one looks around the Internet, it will be rather quickly perceived that while the larger model railroading forums are overwhelmingly comprised of newbie and novice-level hobbyists, there are an increasing number of smaller sites/forums dedicated almost exclusively to advanced/serious model railroaders. One will also note that the later sort of individuals now rarely participate in any numbers on the "general" forums (they did formerly), while the less accomplished hobbyists don't usually stay long in the advanced venues, other than perhaps as silent lurkers.
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There could be reasons for advance modelers not hanging around to include being flamed by forum "experts".IF you want 2 or 3 case points send a pm...Same could be said for the novice being flamed by "know it all" self proclaim "expert" advanced modelers.
None of the above situations were nearly so commonplace prior to the last generation of hobbyists. Before that most shared the same sort of basic models and modeling skills, along with there being a much narrower range in skill levels between novice and advanced.
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I disagree..The hobby has always seen several camps for as long as I care to recall..
As examples the freelancers vs the stickly prototype modelers,the operators vs. the runners and so on.
I just think its more rampant today on forums while not so rampant in the real world.
Dcc will become standard for train sets, and and probably there will be real diesil engines and generators running the locomotives.
blownout cylinder CNJ831For the pretenders and their posts, I have no sense of humor. Neither do I for people who make inane comments in response to serious posts, those who never post information that checks out against the facts, or folks who claim knowledge and broad experience but never seem to have ever posted a single example of their own modeling expertise in these pages. That is why I'm starting to think there may not BE ANYTHING like MRR in say a generation. It will be entirely Virtual Reality---if not even more out there---If it be anywhere at all. As for the two stream idea---I doubt it will survive even then----want proof? Check the numbers of pedal car collectors---those numbers aren't so strong---and recently I started seeing some fleamarkets doing the split routine----prices have shot up on a few things but generally right across the board declines in attendance---which makes for some interesting deals again. Remember---the 'baby boomers were/are the richest generation/with peripheral generation. Once they're out of the picture----
CNJ831For the pretenders and their posts, I have no sense of humor. Neither do I for people who make inane comments in response to serious posts, those who never post information that checks out against the facts, or folks who claim knowledge and broad experience but never seem to have ever posted a single example of their own modeling expertise in these pages.
That is why I'm starting to think there may not BE ANYTHING like MRR in say a generation. It will be entirely Virtual Reality---if not even more out there---If it be anywhere at all.
As for the two stream idea---I doubt it will survive even then----want proof? Check the numbers of pedal car collectors---those numbers aren't so strong---and recently I started seeing some fleamarkets doing the split routine----prices have shot up on a few things but generally right across the board declines in attendance---which makes for some interesting deals again. Remember---the 'baby boomers were/are the richest generation/with peripheral generation. Once they're out of the picture----
As to whether or not and just how well a divided hobby could survive in the future, that would certainly be open to considerable debate pro and con. Personally, I expect there will be a least a small faction of highly accomplished modelers long into the future - just not necessarily viable on the commercial level. Nevertheless, evidence for a growing schism in the hobby's future is rather apparent already.
If one looks around the Internet, it will be rather quickly perceived that while the larger model railroading forums are overwhelmingly comprised of newbie and novice-level hobbyists, there are an increasing number of smaller sites/forums dedicated almost exclusively to advanced/serious model railroaders. One will also note that the later sort of individuals now rarely participate in any numbers on the "general" forums (they did formerly), while the less accomplished hobbyists don't usually stay long in the advanced venues, other than perhaps as silent lurkers. Likewise, the sort and complexity of modeling displayed on the two types of forums is usually astoundingly different.
Clearly, a situation that has been hard to miss over the past dozen years or so, is the hobby's magazines spliting into two distinct camps relative to the customer base/hobbyist modeling level they are aiming at. This has been to such a degree that the advertisers have aligned themselves almost exclusively to one or the other and the advertisers differ probably 90% in the two magazine types.
Once all the 'baby boomers' disappear it will become a shadow of itself. I'd guess all of 2500 to 4500 individuals will be doing anything in it. Oh, BTW, CNJ, don't give it any thought there is even 2 or 3 'serious' modellers---I got the sneaking feeling that this definition of serious will not even register. If any DO exist, they will not even want to be counted as part of this. All else will go into antiqueing and collector markets with even those on the fringe. As for the two stream idea---I doubt it will survive even then----want proof? Check the numbers of pedal car collectors---those numbers aren't so strong---and recently I started seeing some fleamarkets doing the split routine----prices have shot up on a few things but generally right across the board declines in attendance---which makes for some interesting deals again. Remember---the 'baby boomers were/are the richest generation/with peripheral generation. Once they're out of the picture----
CNJ831 So, on the assumption that we are looking perhaps 25 years into the future and extrapolating from what's happening now, only one or two radical alterations in the way folks model might realistically be anticipated. Of these, I would agree that with the coming dramatic push for battery power for vehicles, the technology therein which is going to progress by orders of magnitude over the next decade maybe even just the next few years, is going to make self-contained power in HO a reality far sooner than most anticipate. When it comes, it's huge advantages will quickly sweep aside existing DC and DCC.
So, on the assumption that we are looking perhaps 25 years into the future and extrapolating from what's happening now, only one or two radical alterations in the way folks model might realistically be anticipated. Of these, I would agree that with the coming dramatic push for battery power for vehicles, the technology therein which is going to progress by orders of magnitude over the next decade maybe even just the next few years, is going to make self-contained power in HO a reality far sooner than most anticipate. When it comes, it's huge advantages will quickly sweep aside existing DC and DCC.
I disagree on this call. There has been plenty of impetus for, research, and engineering of new battery techology over the past 15 years, thanks to portable computers and electronics, and hybird vehicles. Despite the obvious need, battery technology has not improved by even one order of magnitude in those 15 years. There will have to be major breakthrough in either fuel cells or "cold fusion" to get the gains that are needed to replace power through the rails on a universal basis in the smaller scales. Electrical current generating chemical reactions (today's and yesterday's batteries) aren't going to overcome the physical space/energy output needed for small HO or N. And we add to this problem with the extra energy and space needed to satisfy our quest for realistic sound.
I can see a large segment of the hobby moving to become simply collectors, rather than classic model railroaders who build impressively realistic layouts, as many will lack the basic skills to build much of anything. The possibly even exists of the hobby itself splitting into two distinctly different pursuits: one based on actual modeling and the other simply gathering together RTR stuff of all description and plopping it down on either a very basically scenicked board, or some commercially available, pre-formed, foam diorama element much like Like-Life offered back in the 1970's (but obviously of much higher quality). You can already see evidence of this dicotomy beginning in the hobby's leading magazines over the past decade.
Again, I disagree. Perhaps it is wishful thinking on my part, but I predict the collector side of the hobby is already past its golden years. As CNJ has said, the majority of the hobby is from the boomer generation. As their numbers decline through attrition (and I'm a boomer), collections are going to be dumped on the market. And because most models are quite capable of outlasting their 1st owners, availability of production from the past will continue to increase while potential buyers decrease. Further pushing this trend is that yesterday's collector models have no nostalgic ties to younger generations. The younger generations have much less interest in brass produced in the '60s, 70s, and '80s than their boomer elders. The young ones (again, for the most part) would rather buy modern plastic production. Lionel postwar prices have already significantly declined from their 1990s highs, but new production sells reasonably. Only the mint condition specimens interest the collectors any more. I predict the same for the imported brass models. I have already seen a downturn in prices actually obtained for the more run of the mill brass models. Which is all good for me personally.
My belief is that the past 15 years have really been an aberration in the grand scheme of both the hobby and world economics. In general, Americans have been living beyond their means, which is unsustainable in the long term. The current attempts to prop up what is really an unsustainable economy will fail, and make the needed adjustments that much more difficult. No matter what people want to believe, median housing prices that are greater than 3X the median household income isn't sustainable. The same is going to happen in the hobby. As batch production runs have to get smaller and more expensive in a shrinking market, so prices will have to rise to unsustainable levels. Folks who buy 3-5 $100 locomotives per year will be cutting back to maybe one locomotive per year. Modern plastic production will die a painful death as investors can't sell enough and/or get a high enough price to pay for a production run.
I've read and heard the cries for plastic production for niche eras and prototypes on a regular basis. If it was believed that money could be made catering to those markets, it would have been done. Instead, the niche markets are currently being served by low production rate technologies and cottage manufacturers (etched metal, spin cast metal, resin, and laser cut kits). That's where I see the future of the hobby. These cottage manufacturers will encourage a return to model building because their technologies support kits rather than RTR, and because most of them are craftsmen themselves to make the masters they need.
Also watch for a push by manufacturers toward crerating a distinct "collectables" market in HO, as exists today in N. And more toward the fringes of possibility, perhaps look for a certain new HO manufacturer to begin forcing his competition out of the marketplace one by one and dramatically altering the hobby itself. You may well see it all come to pass. CNJ831
Again, I see the same trends but see a different outcome. Collectables are a 1990s phenomena, and with the number of collectors decreasing, the N collector's market is barely holding its own. A true HO collector's market outside of brass will never happen - my prediction. Yes, there will always be a few collectors of nostalgia - but not enough to support the fanciful collector paint schemes of past N production. Tyco and others tried and couldn't make it under much more favorable conditions.
my thoughts and predictions, yours may differ
Fred W
Some good ideas so far so I hope I'm not repeating any of them
1. Atlas will eventually make a tunout that is more reliable
2. An automated air brush that is computer controlled. You use a weathering program on your PC to set up what your rolling stock will look like, place the car in the booth and Walla, out comes a weathered car.
3. Wireless booster that accepts Wifi from a wireless router and can be controlled from any wireless device that has the software loaded.
4. All CV information is stored in the decoder. When you program, all options and descriptions are uploaded to your display with text descriptions and not just numbers.
Springfield PA
MisterBeasleySorry, I don't see the battery thing........but battery-powered trains will be poor performers and will eventually be rejected.
Try telling that to the large scale BR (battery remote) crowd. They have been doing it for about 20 years, and still going strong.
Battery for HO? Aristo Craft has a rechargeable Li-ion now in the works that will fit in an HO baggage or dummy loco, and they claim it will provide hours of operation. As another poster pointed out, one can have sections of powered track where the train stops to refuel/recharge, just like the prototype. May be just a few long powered sections where the train rolls over and recharges. The majority of the layout could have un-powered track. Sounds simpler and less hassle than all the master control, boosters, hammer heads (cabs), panels/sections, power switches, power shields, cleaning, cleaning......
No need to be sorry. It's simply thoughts on the future.
DC
http://uphonation.com
andrechapelon Ah...igorance must be a terrible cross to bear, no?. It's certainly better to consider the thoughts of someone with some knowledge of the hobby's past, rather then the juvenile babbling of armchair fools who pop up here all too often with nothing of value to say, those who clearly only pretend to be practicing model railroaders? Seems an obvious choice to me. CNJ831 Ya know, something, CNJ. I wouldn't have bothered saying anything if your leadoff line hadn't been this bit of pompous self-worship (not to mention the lines above): This long and winding thread reflects considerable naivette with regard to poster's predictions, much of it being pure fantasy in my opinion and conflicts with what past reality tells us about the hobby's way of advancing. It would seem you can't even attempt to make a point without trying to put everyone else down. Not one individual, mind you, but virtually everybody who offered an opinion, either serious or tongue-in-cheek. If you had anything that even remotely resembled a sense of humor, you might find that the world, and esepecially this particular corner of it, can actually be fun. Who knows, you could write fractured lyrics to songs making fun of such nonsense threads as the one about being ashamed of the hobby. Hmm. Don't know why it is, but a certain Carly Simon song just popped into my head. Somewhere there's a line in it about a total eclipse of the sun or sumthin'. Smile. It's less work than frowning (at least rumor has it. Snopes is unable to confirm). Andre
Ah...igorance must be a terrible cross to bear, no?. It's certainly better to consider the thoughts of someone with some knowledge of the hobby's past, rather then the juvenile babbling of armchair fools who pop up here all too often with nothing of value to say, those who clearly only pretend to be practicing model railroaders? Seems an obvious choice to me.
Ya know, something, CNJ. I wouldn't have bothered saying anything if your leadoff line hadn't been this bit of pompous self-worship (not to mention the lines above):
This long and winding thread reflects considerable naivette with regard to poster's predictions, much of it being pure fantasy in my opinion and conflicts with what past reality tells us about the hobby's way of advancing.
It would seem you can't even attempt to make a point without trying to put everyone else down. Not one individual, mind you, but virtually everybody who offered an opinion, either serious or tongue-in-cheek.
If you had anything that even remotely resembled a sense of humor, you might find that the world, and esepecially this particular corner of it, can actually be fun. Who knows, you could write fractured lyrics to songs making fun of such nonsense threads as the one about being ashamed of the hobby.
Hmm. Don't know why it is, but a certain Carly Simon song just popped into my head. Somewhere there's a line in it about a total eclipse of the sun or sumthin'.
Smile. It's less work than frowning (at least rumor has it. Snopes is unable to confirm).
Andre - The preface to my initial post in this thread reflects the sad fact that too many Internet hobby forums, rather than producing a wealth of solid, enlightening, information and dialogue, have done little more than give a voice to a large number of blowhards and individuals with scant knowledge of a subject usually with little of value to add to any discussion. Worse, more often than not such posts are misleading, if not downright nonsense. It has always been my assumption that most come here with serious questions and to learn, not to simply be entertained.
For the pretenders and their posts, I have no sense of humor. Neither do I for people who make inane comments in response to serious posts, those who never post information that checks out against the facts, or folks who claim knowledge and broad experience but never seem to have ever posted a single example of their own modeling expertise in these pages.
stebbycentral I predict that by the year 2015 our friend Spacemouse will finally have settled on a scale, and have developed a final plan for his layout. Construction to begin shortly thereafter... I wouldn't put money on it, though.
I predict that by the year 2015 our friend Spacemouse will finally have settled on a scale, and have developed a final plan for his layout. Construction to begin shortly thereafter...
I wouldn't put money on it, though.
I ain't bettin on a completion date either...
I WILL predict that Officer O'malley will be putting the shackles on this thread soon.
One thing that makes predicting the future difficult is that there often is a lag time between when something is invented / created and when it catches on. Sometimes this is for economic reasons, sometimes other reasons. For example Nazi Germany developed bombs that could be controlled electronically by a pilot or bombadier via a TV camera. It would be easy to call that a failure until recent decades. It wouldn't become common until the first Gulf War.
I would expect on-train cameras may eventually become much more popular than they are now, but it's a Catch-22 - they won't be really popular until people start buidling layouts with train-mounted minicams in mind. I suspect the sight of fullsize people, basement walls, etc. in the shot is what turns many people off who have tried train mounted TVs.
andrechapelon "snip" Better listen to him. It appears Mr. Peabody has managed to make the WABAC machine go forward into the future as well as the past. Also in the future, Rocky's had his airworthiness certificate pulled, Bullwinkle finally actually pulls a rabbit out of his hat, Boris and Natasha get married and Dudley Do-Right knocks over a convenience store. Oh yeah, I forgot. Fearless Leader admits that he's the one driving up model railroad prices in collusion with Mr. Peabody''s boy, Sherman. ================================ Andre
"snip"
Better listen to him. It appears Mr. Peabody has managed to make the WABAC machine go forward into the future as well as the past.
Also in the future, Rocky's had his airworthiness certificate pulled, Bullwinkle finally actually pulls a rabbit out of his hat, Boris and Natasha get married and Dudley Do-Right knocks over a convenience store.
Oh yeah, I forgot. Fearless Leader admits that he's the one driving up model railroad prices in collusion with Mr. Peabody''s boy, Sherman.
================================
I replied to MR about that article and they printed my response. There was a lot of future there and a lot of what was presented is in many ways true today. But I argued the magazine as it is may never dissappear unless we run out of trees.
Digitrax'x radio throttles work together with the infrared/direct connections to help integrate the best connection, an onboard radio reciever that could actually pick the DCC signal sounds extremely practical working in liason with the track power, and onboard supplemental power will definately help pickup.
A pure radio control wont mean much if your going to have live signals, you will still do wiring.
Sound quality will likely improve many fold and control. VMR will have its place but can't replace the live models. The hobby dieing, nope.
Model building may improve and the more distinct off mainline locos may become more affordable and available to make and buy.
Technology can only keep ramping and applying it to this hobby could only make it better.
I have figured out what is wrong with my brain! On the left side nothing works right, and on the right side there is nothing left!
CNJ831 This long and winding thread reflects considerable naivette with regard to poster's predictions, much of it being pure fantasy in my opinion and conflicts with what past reality tells us about the hobby's way of advancing. As I pointed out in another thread recently, model railroading historically has evolved painfully slowly and the introduction and acceptance of new ideas generally requires decades to take hold. Something missed by nearly all the previous posters is that to predict the future one must understand and appreciate the past. Nearly all of what folks here take to be great recent revolutions in the hobby actually date back in one form or another at least a couple of decades. By example, on-board cameras appeared commercially in the mid 1980's. At the time they were touted as about to completely revolutionize the hobby...they didn't and still remain a just a childish novelty. On-board electronic sound goes back I don't how far (decades) in Lionel O-gauge and even in HO (perhaps the 70's?). The list of other examples is surprisingly long. So, on the assumption that we are looking perhaps 25 years into the future and extrapolating from what's happening now, only one or two radical alterations in the way folks model might realistically be anticipated. Of these, I would agree that with the coming dramatic push for battery power for vehicles, the technology therein which is going to progress by orders of magnitude over the next decade maybe even just the next few years, is going to make self-contained power in HO a reality far sooner than most anticipate. When it comes, it's huge advantages will quickly sweep aside existing DC and DCC. I can see a large segment of the hobby moving to become simply collectors, rather than classic model railroaders who build impressively realistic layouts, as many will lack the basic skills to build much of anything. The possibly even exists of the hobby itself splitting into two distinctly different pursuits: one based on actual modeling and the other simply gathering together RTR stuff of all description and plopping it down on either a very basically scenicked board, or some commercially available, pre-formed, foam diorama element much like Like-Life offered back in the 1970's (but obviously of much higher quality). You can already see evidence of this dicotomy beginning in the hobby's leading magazines over the past decade. Based on what has been seen over the past 15 years, I would have to say that the cost of the hobby will soar over just the next decade. Basic steam locomotives will surely top $500 per, with the equivalent of todays better models commanding $1,000 to $1,500 each. The age of "plastic brass" is coming. Likewise, expect to see the production/release of entire specific trains become a standard, rather the just locos and rolling stock sold separately, of course at truly astronomical prices. Major increases in pricing will also be precipitated by the progressive passing of first the older Baby Boomers (the heart of the hobby today) and then that entire generation and thus progressively narrowing the market; the rapid rise of oversea's production costs and shipping; the excessive demand for ever higher detail in models, and the manufacturers' concept of ever smaller runs and charging as much as the traffic will possibly bear. Also watch for a push by manufacturers toward crerating a distinct "collectables" market in HO, as exists today in N. And more toward the fringes of possibility, perhaps look for a certain new HO manufacturer to begin forcing his competition out of the marketplace one by one and dramatically altering the hobby itself. You may well see it all come to pass. CNJ831
This long and winding thread reflects considerable naivette with regard to poster's predictions, much of it being pure fantasy in my opinion and conflicts with what past reality tells us about the hobby's way of advancing. As I pointed out in another thread recently, model railroading historically has evolved painfully slowly and the introduction and acceptance of new ideas generally requires decades to take hold.
Something missed by nearly all the previous posters is that to predict the future one must understand and appreciate the past. Nearly all of what folks here take to be great recent revolutions in the hobby actually date back in one form or another at least a couple of decades. By example, on-board cameras appeared commercially in the mid 1980's. At the time they were touted as about to completely revolutionize the hobby...they didn't and still remain a just a childish novelty. On-board electronic sound goes back I don't how far (decades) in Lionel O-gauge and even in HO (perhaps the 70's?). The list of other examples is surprisingly long.
Also watch for a push by manufacturers toward crerating a distinct "collectables" market in HO, as exists today in N. And more toward the fringes of possibility, perhaps look for a certain new HO manufacturer to begin forcing his competition out of the marketplace one by one and dramatically altering the hobby itself. You may well see it all come to pass.
15 or 20 years back, nobody would have thought that we operate our layouts by DCC, reducing the ammount of wiring and paving the way for double heading and sound. What will happen in the next decade? I guess that electronics will become even more refined, with sound entering even into N and Z scale. Landscaping materials will also change - making it easier to work with - just like we experienced with foam insulation board.
Level of detail will improve, making our models even more realistic, together with animated figures and sounds.
The type of layouts will not change - maybe a touch more of nostalgia will enter the scene.
I am pretty sure, that prices will increase dramatically as there will be less people in our hobby - we already fail to trecruit the next generation...
What future??? Haven't you heard?? The hobby's dieing!
LCD programmable, 3D back drops would WILL be cool!
NittanyLion Hansel Having a computer run your trains? Half of the fun is the control we have of the locomotives and the train. Heck you might as well not have any model trains and sit and use software and on a PC. But on the other side of the coin, wouldn't it be pretty neat if you had a nice big basement layout where the rest of the trains out there on the main and yards were completely under AI control? You could still be running your peddler freight while keeping out of the way of the passengers and the through freights, but they'd be working to do the same with each other. Yeah you can do a lot of that already, but I'm imagining far more complex actions by the computer controlled trains. Like the AI yard switchers putting together the next train (RFID tags in the cars) for you while you're off doing something else.
Hansel Having a computer run your trains? Half of the fun is the control we have of the locomotives and the train. Heck you might as well not have any model trains and sit and use software and on a PC.
Having a computer run your trains? Half of the fun is the control we have of the locomotives and the train. Heck you might as well not have any model trains and sit and use software and on a PC.
But on the other side of the coin, wouldn't it be pretty neat if you had a nice big basement layout where the rest of the trains out there on the main and yards were completely under AI control? You could still be running your peddler freight while keeping out of the way of the passengers and the through freights, but they'd be working to do the same with each other. Yeah you can do a lot of that already, but I'm imagining far more complex actions by the computer controlled trains. Like the AI yard switchers putting together the next train (RFID tags in the cars) for you while you're off doing something else.
This is actually pretty close to what I am building right now. At the very least, there will be an automated computer dispatcher that can control the CTC while one or more operators run trains; in the "grandiose" version, the computer will be able to automate trains as well as the dispatcher. Or, there can be a live body running and dispatching all the trains. Hopefully for my layout, the future is sooner rather than later. Jamie
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