I can see an increased physical/virtual interface emerging. Mico optical sensors on board the locomotive will transmit and project (on multiple computer screens? holograms?) into a 3D environement for the operator who will be inside a virtual cab (that changes with the type of locomotive being controlled), enabling him to see and interact with the actual layout through the virtual cab windows.
Nanotechnology advances will produce scale-sized microbot brakemen who will walk the layout and uncouple cars.
Locos will be powered by small fusion generators hidden in the boilers & fuel tanks, providing years of maintenance-free service.
"I am lapidary but not eristic when I use big words." - William F. Buckley
I haven't been sleeping. I'm afraid I'll dream I'm in a coma and then wake up unconscious. -Stephen Wright
Overall I see more aspects of modeling moving closer to 'instant' in order to save on time and effort. That's the way things have been trending up to today.
Loco's will likely go wireless and be powered by small fuel cells. This would eliminate track conductivity issues and locos would mimic their prototypes by needing to be refueled.
Rolling stock will have chips to control their couplers.
GPS-like systems will be available so your computer will be able to precisely track trains on your layout. This will enhance automatic and remote operations.
Generous federal & state MRR funding and tax credits will become available.
Okay, maybe that last one is much more of a wish...
blownout cylinder NittanyLion HarryHotspur Virtual model railroading will replace actual model railroading, and everyone can have an exact replica of their favorite prototype. No longer will we be confined by space limitations. This I'd actually pretty harshly disagree with. Of course, this always assumes that the technology and software levels are static-----I'm never so sure that it always will be as difficult---
NittanyLion HarryHotspur Virtual model railroading will replace actual model railroading, and everyone can have an exact replica of their favorite prototype. No longer will we be confined by space limitations. This I'd actually pretty harshly disagree with.
HarryHotspur Virtual model railroading will replace actual model railroading, and everyone can have an exact replica of their favorite prototype. No longer will we be confined by space limitations.
Virtual model railroading will replace actual model railroading, and everyone can have an exact replica of their favorite prototype. No longer will we be confined by space limitations.
This I'd actually pretty harshly disagree with.
Of course, this always assumes that the technology and software levels are static-----I'm never so sure that it always will be as difficult---
Here we have a classic case of, "Let your fingers (on mouse or keyboard) do the walking," versus "It isn't fun unless I can get my mitts into the machinery." If your tastes run to the latter, what grand new bells and whistles are added to vertch software won't amount to a blown transistor.
On the subject of surprise situations at random times, it doesn't take a computer to generate them. Anyone who operates with car cards and waybills can add, "Jokers," to the card deck - anything from a herd of cows on the track to a boiler explosion... The capability has existed for a LONG time, it just hasn't been worked up in the model press.
For the future, I see model railroading following the same path as model shipbuilding. Everybody claims it's about to disappear, but it just keeps getting stronger and more diversified. The mere fact that toy trains (except for Thomas and friends) are no longer centerpieces in department store Christmas displays won't make as big a difference as we seem to think. When was the last time you saw a kit for HMS Victory or USS Constitution in a toy store?
As far as specific changes, improvements, trends... I'd like to answer, but my crystal ball is all clouded up...
Chuck (Modeling Central Japan in September, 1964 - with Joker waybills)
Well so far petty good. Since '85' we've seen better super glues,laser cut kits,much improved electronics,such as DCC,special effects modules,programmable sound,improved LEDs for lighting effects. Sophisticated paper models, computer aided drawing and artwwork for paper models etc.Radio control is already popular with the outdoor railroaders.
I don't think anything will replace mans need to physically build miniatures. We'll probably always need glue and paint and tools to build our dreams with.I like the idea of a home laser cutter. There are some available but they're not cheap. Maybe just a laser scalpel that we can burn holes in our fingers and clothes.
I think the guys who like to do computer projects are a little different than those of us who like to physically build things. Kinda like the difference between photographers and painters.
I like the computer generated operation schedules though. Helps the imagination. BILL
MAbruce GPS-like systems will be available so your computer will be able to precisely track trains on your layout. This will enhance automatic and remote operations.
This I fear, is still a long way off. There has been an effort afoot for years to modify the GPS signal. Currently, the GPS broadcast is a low power-wide bandwidth signal, thus does not penetrate tree canopy well (let alone a roof). As the constellation of satellites is replaced, the intent is to replace those satellites that go off line with vehicles that are capable of the modified broadcast signal. The main trouble is that most of the vehicles currently in orbit have already out lived their projected life expectancy, some by as much as 100%. Replacing a 400 million dollar satellite that is still functioning, with a billion dollar satellite is just not going to happen quickly, if at all. The tax payer would revolt.
Further, all affordable GPS receivers have one big shortfall that prohibit precise positioning. THE CLOCK. The survey grade GPS receivers that I utilize at work each have a highly precise clock. This clock alone costs $2000.00, and these receivers, which cost in excess of $20000.00, still rely on the broadcast ephemeris file (the mathmatical orbit of the satellite constellation). The precise ephemeris file is not available for civilian use until a week after GPS observations are conducted. These two factors render recreational grade GPS receivers accurate to no more than 100 feet or so, assuming ideal conditions.
This is a great idea, and could be quite useful in many areas including model railroading. As much as I would like to, I just don’t see it for several generations. By the time these issues are addressed, there may will be an alternative method available.
Bioengineering is going to evolve us two extra arms and hands and that will make everything easier. I will predict, however, that our proverbial complaint of needing "an extra hand" will never die!
From the far, far reaches of the wild, wild west I am: rtpoteet
Trace ForkMAbruce GPS-like systems will be available so your computer will be able to precisely track trains on your layout. This will enhance automatic and remote operations. This I fear, is still a long way off. There has been an effort afoot for years to modify the GPS signal. Currently, the GPS broadcast is a low power-wide bandwidth signal, thus does not penetrate tree canopy well (let alone a roof). As the constellation of satellites is replaced, the intent is to replace those satellites that go off line with vehicles that are capable of the modified broadcast signal. The main trouble is that most of the vehicles currently in orbit have already out lived their projected life expectancy, some by as much as 100%. Replacing a 400 million dollar satellite that is still functioning, with a billion dollar satellite is just not going to happen quickly, if at all. The tax payer would revolt. Further, all affordable GPS receivers have one big shortfall that prohibit precise positioning. THE CLOCK. The survey grade GPS receivers that I utilize at work each have a highly precise clock. This clock alone costs $2000.00, and these receivers, which cost in excess of $20000.00, still rely on the broadcast ephemeris file (the mathmatical orbit of the satellite constellation). The precise ephemeris file is not available for civilian use until a week after GPS observations are conducted. These two factors render recreational grade GPS receivers accurate to no more than 100 feet or so, assuming ideal conditions. This is a great idea, and could be quite useful in many areas including model railroading. As much as I would like to, I just don’t see it for several generations. By the time these issues are addressed, there may will be an alternative method available.
This I fear, is still a long way off. There has been an effort afoot for years to modify the GPS signal. Currently, the GPS broadcast is a low power-wide bandwidth signal, thus does not penetrate tree canopy well (let alone a roof). As the constellation of satellites is replaced, the intent is to replace those satellites that go off line with vehicles that are capable of the modified broadcast signal. The main trouble is that most of the vehicles currently in orbit have already out lived their projected life expectancy, some by as much as 100%. Replacing a 400 million dollar satellite that is still functioning, with a billion dollar satellite is just not going to happen quickly, if at all. The tax payer would revolt. Further, all affordable GPS receivers have one big shortfall that prohibit precise positioning. THE CLOCK. The survey grade GPS receivers that I utilize at work each have a highly precise clock. This clock alone costs $2000.00, and these receivers, which cost in excess of $20000.00, still rely on the broadcast ephemeris file (the mathmatical orbit of the satellite constellation). The precise ephemeris file is not available for civilian use until a week after GPS observations are conducted. These two factors render recreational grade GPS receivers accurate to no more than 100 feet or so, assuming ideal conditions. This is a great idea, and could be quite useful in many areas including model railroading. As much as I would like to, I just don’t see it for several generations. By the time these issues are addressed, there may will be an alternative method available.
Good points - but I actually didn't have the GPS system in mind. Maybe I should have called it a 'LPS' Local Positioning System that can be set up for a small area (like a layout).
MAbruce Good points - but I actually didn't have the GPS system in mind. Maybe I should have called it a 'LPS' Local Positioning System that can be set up for a small area (like a layout).
I suppose a local area network could be utilized to accomplish this. It could consist of two stationary base transceivers that continually broadcast their positions via radio or cellular wave form. This would allow a triangulated and corrected position to be calculated to the mobile unit (receiver equipped locomotive). This would be even more accurate with a third stationary transceiver mouted in the ceiling to account for differences in elevation. This is indeed a possibility, and a thought provoking one as well.
There's going to be a huge glut in the used model market, and places like e-Bay will become even more popular than they already are now. The local hobby shop as we (used to) know will be dead, and the few remaining ones will rarely be "trains only".
If the economy continues to limp along for another 20 years, I predict with a little on line work, most will be able to find good hardly-used models for a good price in the future.
I thought I saw an article of a modeler who already employed the RC concept in a recent issue of MR. He said his batteries last about 2 hours before recharging, which seems pretty long, for now.
Having a computer run your trains? Half of the fun is the control we have of the locomotives and the train. Heck you might as well not have any model trains and sit and use software and on a PC.
Just my $0.02
MRC makes there decoders work right.
Someone makes a high-quality (atlas, P2k, genesis, etc) C30-7, C636, and SD40-2 in plastic with sound DCC.
Upgraded manufacuering techniques make stuff cost less, if the manufactuers don't go on the limited production crap even harder.
Athearn or some other companies bring back inexpensive kits (BB kits or similar). Locomotive kits of a similar variety also come around.
Some figures on the layouts will be sentient nanobots, who then sue you because your model train hit them as they were walking on the tracks even after you wailed on the horn and/or whistle.
About the CNC machine that makes a loco out of barstock, I'd be first in line.
Vincent
Wants: 1. high-quality, sound equipped, SD40-2s, C636s, C30-7s, and F-units in BN. As for ones that don't cost an arm and a leg, that's out of the question....
2. An end to the limited-production and other crap that makes models harder to get and more expensive.
The future is happening and will continue to happen. Not to worry.
Rich
If you ever fall over in public, pick yourself up and say “sorry it’s been a while since I inhabited a body.” And just walk away.
Hansel Having a computer run your trains? Half of the fun is the control we have of the locomotives and the train. Heck you might as well not have any model trains and sit and use software and on a PC.
But on the other side of the coin, wouldn't it be pretty neat if you had a nice big basement layout where the rest of the trains out there on the main and yards were completely under AI control? You could still be running your peddler freight while keeping out of the way of the passengers and the through freights, but they'd be working to do the same with each other. Yeah you can do a lot of that already, but I'm imagining far more complex actions by the computer controlled trains. Like the AI yard switchers putting together the next train (RFID tags in the cars) for you while you're off doing something else.
NittanyLion Hansel Having a computer run your trains? Half of the fun is the control we have of the locomotives and the train. Heck you might as well not have any model trains and sit and use software and on a PC. But on the other side of the coin, wouldn't it be pretty neat if you had a nice big basement layout where the rest of the trains out there on the main and yards were completely under AI control? You could still be running your peddler freight while keeping out of the way of the passengers and the through freights, but they'd be working to do the same with each other. Yeah you can do a lot of that already, but I'm imagining far more complex actions by the computer controlled trains. Like the AI yard switchers putting together the next train (RFID tags in the cars) for you while you're off doing something else.
I thought that Bruce Chubb's Computer/Model Railroad Interface from the mid-80's was supposed to do this same scenario. Is that incorrect?
Keith Baker
This is actually pretty close to what I am building right now. At the very least, there will be an automated computer dispatcher that can control the CTC while one or more operators run trains; in the "grandiose" version, the computer will be able to automate trains as well as the dispatcher. Or, there can be a live body running and dispatching all the trains. Hopefully for my layout, the future is sooner rather than later. Jamie
CLICK HERE FOR THE CSX DIXIE LINE BLOG
What future??? Haven't you heard?? The hobby's dieing!
LCD programmable, 3D back drops would WILL be cool!
15 or 20 years back, nobody would have thought that we operate our layouts by DCC, reducing the ammount of wiring and paving the way for double heading and sound. What will happen in the next decade? I guess that electronics will become even more refined, with sound entering even into N and Z scale. Landscaping materials will also change - making it easier to work with - just like we experienced with foam insulation board.
Level of detail will improve, making our models even more realistic, together with animated figures and sounds.
The type of layouts will not change - maybe a touch more of nostalgia will enter the scene.
I am pretty sure, that prices will increase dramatically as there will be less people in our hobby - we already fail to trecruit the next generation...
This long and winding thread reflects considerable naivette with regard to poster's predictions, much of it being pure fantasy in my opinion and conflicts with what past reality tells us about the hobby's way of advancing. As I pointed out in another thread recently, model railroading historically has evolved painfully slowly and the introduction and acceptance of new ideas generally requires decades to take hold.
Something missed by nearly all the previous posters is that to predict the future one must understand and appreciate the past. Nearly all of what folks here take to be great recent revolutions in the hobby actually date back in one form or another at least a couple of decades. By example, on-board cameras appeared commercially in the mid 1980's. At the time they were touted as about to completely revolutionize the hobby...they didn't and still remain a just a childish novelty. On-board electronic sound goes back I don't how far (decades) in Lionel O-gauge and even in HO (perhaps the 70's?). The list of other examples is surprisingly long.
So, on the assumption that we are looking perhaps 25 years into the future and extrapolating from what's happening now, only one or two radical alterations in the way folks model might realistically be anticipated. Of these, I would agree that with the coming dramatic push for battery power for vehicles, the technology therein which is going to progress by orders of magnitude over the next decade maybe even just the next few years, is going to make self-contained power in HO a reality far sooner than most anticipate. When it comes, it's huge advantages will quickly sweep aside existing DC and DCC.
I can see a large segment of the hobby moving to become simply collectors, rather than classic model railroaders who build impressively realistic layouts, as many will lack the basic skills to build much of anything. The possibly even exists of the hobby itself splitting into two distinctly different pursuits: one based on actual modeling and the other simply gathering together RTR stuff of all description and plopping it down on either a very basically scenicked board, or some commercially available, pre-formed, foam diorama element much like Like-Life offered back in the 1970's (but obviously of much higher quality). You can already see evidence of this dicotomy beginning in the hobby's leading magazines over the past decade.
Based on what has been seen over the past 15 years, I would have to say that the cost of the hobby will soar over just the next decade. Basic steam locomotives will surely top $500 per, with the equivalent of todays better models commanding $1,000 to $1,500 each. The age of "plastic brass" is coming. Likewise, expect to see the production/release of entire specific trains become a standard, rather the just locos and rolling stock sold separately, of course at truly astronomical prices. Major increases in pricing will also be precipitated by the progressive passing of first the older Baby Boomers (the heart of the hobby today) and then that entire generation and thus progressively narrowing the market; the rapid rise of oversea's production costs and shipping; the excessive demand for ever higher detail in models, and the manufacturers' concept of ever smaller runs and charging as much as the traffic will possibly bear.
Also watch for a push by manufacturers toward crerating a distinct "collectables" market in HO, as exists today in N. And more toward the fringes of possibility, perhaps look for a certain new HO manufacturer to begin forcing his competition out of the marketplace one by one and dramatically altering the hobby itself. You may well see it all come to pass.
CNJ831
CNJ831 This long and winding thread reflects considerable naivette with regard to poster's predictions, much of it being pure fantasy in my opinion and conflicts with what past reality tells us about the hobby's way of advancing. As I pointed out in another thread recently, model railroading historically has evolved painfully slowly and the introduction and acceptance of new ideas generally requires decades to take hold. Something missed by nearly all the previous posters is that to predict the future one must understand and appreciate the past. Nearly all of what folks here take to be great recent revolutions in the hobby actually date back in one form or another at least a couple of decades. By example, on-board cameras appeared commercially in the mid 1980's. At the time they were touted as about to completely revolutionize the hobby...they didn't and still remain a just a childish novelty. On-board electronic sound goes back I don't how far (decades) in Lionel O-gauge and even in HO (perhaps the 70's?). The list of other examples is surprisingly long. So, on the assumption that we are looking perhaps 25 years into the future and extrapolating from what's happening now, only one or two radical alterations in the way folks model might realistically be anticipated. Of these, I would agree that with the coming dramatic push for battery power for vehicles, the technology therein which is going to progress by orders of magnitude over the next decade maybe even just the next few years, is going to make self-contained power in HO a reality far sooner than most anticipate. When it comes, it's huge advantages will quickly sweep aside existing DC and DCC. I can see a large segment of the hobby moving to become simply collectors, rather than classic model railroaders who build impressively realistic layouts, as many will lack the basic skills to build much of anything. The possibly even exists of the hobby itself splitting into two distinctly different pursuits: one based on actual modeling and the other simply gathering together RTR stuff of all description and plopping it down on either a very basically scenicked board, or some commercially available, pre-formed, foam diorama element much like Like-Life offered back in the 1970's (but obviously of much higher quality). You can already see evidence of this dicotomy beginning in the hobby's leading magazines over the past decade. Based on what has been seen over the past 15 years, I would have to say that the cost of the hobby will soar over just the next decade. Basic steam locomotives will surely top $500 per, with the equivalent of todays better models commanding $1,000 to $1,500 each. The age of "plastic brass" is coming. Likewise, expect to see the production/release of entire specific trains become a standard, rather the just locos and rolling stock sold separately, of course at truly astronomical prices. Major increases in pricing will also be precipitated by the progressive passing of first the older Baby Boomers (the heart of the hobby today) and then that entire generation and thus progressively narrowing the market; the rapid rise of oversea's production costs and shipping; the excessive demand for ever higher detail in models, and the manufacturers' concept of ever smaller runs and charging as much as the traffic will possibly bear. Also watch for a push by manufacturers toward crerating a distinct "collectables" market in HO, as exists today in N. And more toward the fringes of possibility, perhaps look for a certain new HO manufacturer to begin forcing his competition out of the marketplace one by one and dramatically altering the hobby itself. You may well see it all come to pass. CNJ831
Better listen to him. It appears Mr. Peabody has managed to make the WABAC machine go forward into the future as well as the past.
Also in the future, Rocky's had his airworthiness certificate pulled, Bullwinkle finally actually pulls a rabbit out of his hat, Boris and Natasha get married and Dudley Do-Right knocks over a convenience store.
Oh yeah, I forgot. Fearless Leader admits that he's the one driving up model railroad prices in collusion with Mr. Peabody''s boy, Sherman.
================================
Andre
I predict that by the year 2015 our friend Spacemouse will finally have settled on a scale, and have developed a final plan for his layout. Construction to begin shortly thereafter...
I wouldn't put money on it, though.
I have figured out what is wrong with my brain! On the left side nothing works right, and on the right side there is nothing left!
I replied to MR about that article and they printed my response. There was a lot of future there and a lot of what was presented is in many ways true today. But I argued the magazine as it is may never dissappear unless we run out of trees.
Digitrax'x radio throttles work together with the infrared/direct connections to help integrate the best connection, an onboard radio reciever that could actually pick the DCC signal sounds extremely practical working in liason with the track power, and onboard supplemental power will definately help pickup.
A pure radio control wont mean much if your going to have live signals, you will still do wiring.
Sound quality will likely improve many fold and control. VMR will have its place but can't replace the live models. The hobby dieing, nope.
Model building may improve and the more distinct off mainline locos may become more affordable and available to make and buy.
Technology can only keep ramping and applying it to this hobby could only make it better.
andrechapelon "snip" Better listen to him. It appears Mr. Peabody has managed to make the WABAC machine go forward into the future as well as the past. Also in the future, Rocky's had his airworthiness certificate pulled, Bullwinkle finally actually pulls a rabbit out of his hat, Boris and Natasha get married and Dudley Do-Right knocks over a convenience store. Oh yeah, I forgot. Fearless Leader admits that he's the one driving up model railroad prices in collusion with Mr. Peabody''s boy, Sherman. ================================ Andre
"snip"
Ah...igorance must be a terrible cross to bear, no?. It's certainly better to consider the thoughts of someone with some knowledge of the hobby's past, rather then the juvenile babbling of armchair fools who pop up here all too often with nothing of value to say, those who clearly only pretend to be practicing model railroaders? Seems an obvious choice to me.
One thing that makes predicting the future difficult is that there often is a lag time between when something is invented / created and when it catches on. Sometimes this is for economic reasons, sometimes other reasons. For example Nazi Germany developed bombs that could be controlled electronically by a pilot or bombadier via a TV camera. It would be easy to call that a failure until recent decades. It wouldn't become common until the first Gulf War.
I would expect on-train cameras may eventually become much more popular than they are now, but it's a Catch-22 - they won't be really popular until people start buidling layouts with train-mounted minicams in mind. I suspect the sight of fullsize people, basement walls, etc. in the shot is what turns many people off who have tried train mounted TVs.
Ya know, something, CNJ. I wouldn't have bothered saying anything if your leadoff line hadn't been this bit of pompous self-worship (not to mention the lines above):
This long and winding thread reflects considerable naivette with regard to poster's predictions, much of it being pure fantasy in my opinion and conflicts with what past reality tells us about the hobby's way of advancing.
It would seem you can't even attempt to make a point without trying to put everyone else down. Not one individual, mind you, but virtually everybody who offered an opinion, either serious or tongue-in-cheek.
If you had anything that even remotely resembled a sense of humor, you might find that the world, and esepecially this particular corner of it, can actually be fun. Who knows, you could write fractured lyrics to songs making fun of such nonsense threads as the one about being ashamed of the hobby.
Hmm. Don't know why it is, but a certain Carly Simon song just popped into my head. Somewhere there's a line in it about a total eclipse of the sun or sumthin'.
Smile. It's less work than frowning (at least rumor has it. Snopes is unable to confirm).
stebbycentral I predict that by the year 2015 our friend Spacemouse will finally have settled on a scale, and have developed a final plan for his layout. Construction to begin shortly thereafter... I wouldn't put money on it, though.
I ain't bettin on a completion date either...
I WILL predict that Officer O'malley will be putting the shackles on this thread soon.
andrechapelon Ah...igorance must be a terrible cross to bear, no?. It's certainly better to consider the thoughts of someone with some knowledge of the hobby's past, rather then the juvenile babbling of armchair fools who pop up here all too often with nothing of value to say, those who clearly only pretend to be practicing model railroaders? Seems an obvious choice to me. CNJ831 Ya know, something, CNJ. I wouldn't have bothered saying anything if your leadoff line hadn't been this bit of pompous self-worship (not to mention the lines above): This long and winding thread reflects considerable naivette with regard to poster's predictions, much of it being pure fantasy in my opinion and conflicts with what past reality tells us about the hobby's way of advancing. It would seem you can't even attempt to make a point without trying to put everyone else down. Not one individual, mind you, but virtually everybody who offered an opinion, either serious or tongue-in-cheek. If you had anything that even remotely resembled a sense of humor, you might find that the world, and esepecially this particular corner of it, can actually be fun. Who knows, you could write fractured lyrics to songs making fun of such nonsense threads as the one about being ashamed of the hobby. Hmm. Don't know why it is, but a certain Carly Simon song just popped into my head. Somewhere there's a line in it about a total eclipse of the sun or sumthin'. Smile. It's less work than frowning (at least rumor has it. Snopes is unable to confirm). Andre
Andre - The preface to my initial post in this thread reflects the sad fact that too many Internet hobby forums, rather than producing a wealth of solid, enlightening, information and dialogue, have done little more than give a voice to a large number of blowhards and individuals with scant knowledge of a subject usually with little of value to add to any discussion. Worse, more often than not such posts are misleading, if not downright nonsense. It has always been my assumption that most come here with serious questions and to learn, not to simply be entertained.
For the pretenders and their posts, I have no sense of humor. Neither do I for people who make inane comments in response to serious posts, those who never post information that checks out against the facts, or folks who claim knowledge and broad experience but never seem to have ever posted a single example of their own modeling expertise in these pages.
MisterBeasleySorry, I don't see the battery thing........but battery-powered trains will be poor performers and will eventually be rejected.
Try telling that to the large scale BR (battery remote) crowd. They have been doing it for about 20 years, and still going strong.
Battery for HO? Aristo Craft has a rechargeable Li-ion now in the works that will fit in an HO baggage or dummy loco, and they claim it will provide hours of operation. As another poster pointed out, one can have sections of powered track where the train stops to refuel/recharge, just like the prototype. May be just a few long powered sections where the train rolls over and recharges. The majority of the layout could have un-powered track. Sounds simpler and less hassle than all the master control, boosters, hammer heads (cabs), panels/sections, power switches, power shields, cleaning, cleaning......
No need to be sorry. It's simply thoughts on the future.
DC
http://uphonation.com
Some good ideas so far so I hope I'm not repeating any of them
1. Atlas will eventually make a tunout that is more reliable
2. An automated air brush that is computer controlled. You use a weathering program on your PC to set up what your rolling stock will look like, place the car in the booth and Walla, out comes a weathered car.
3. Wireless booster that accepts Wifi from a wireless router and can be controlled from any wireless device that has the software loaded.
4. All CV information is stored in the decoder. When you program, all options and descriptions are uploaded to your display with text descriptions and not just numbers.
Springfield PA
CNJ831 So, on the assumption that we are looking perhaps 25 years into the future and extrapolating from what's happening now, only one or two radical alterations in the way folks model might realistically be anticipated. Of these, I would agree that with the coming dramatic push for battery power for vehicles, the technology therein which is going to progress by orders of magnitude over the next decade maybe even just the next few years, is going to make self-contained power in HO a reality far sooner than most anticipate. When it comes, it's huge advantages will quickly sweep aside existing DC and DCC.
I disagree on this call. There has been plenty of impetus for, research, and engineering of new battery techology over the past 15 years, thanks to portable computers and electronics, and hybird vehicles. Despite the obvious need, battery technology has not improved by even one order of magnitude in those 15 years. There will have to be major breakthrough in either fuel cells or "cold fusion" to get the gains that are needed to replace power through the rails on a universal basis in the smaller scales. Electrical current generating chemical reactions (today's and yesterday's batteries) aren't going to overcome the physical space/energy output needed for small HO or N. And we add to this problem with the extra energy and space needed to satisfy our quest for realistic sound.
Again, I disagree. Perhaps it is wishful thinking on my part, but I predict the collector side of the hobby is already past its golden years. As CNJ has said, the majority of the hobby is from the boomer generation. As their numbers decline through attrition (and I'm a boomer), collections are going to be dumped on the market. And because most models are quite capable of outlasting their 1st owners, availability of production from the past will continue to increase while potential buyers decrease. Further pushing this trend is that yesterday's collector models have no nostalgic ties to younger generations. The younger generations have much less interest in brass produced in the '60s, 70s, and '80s than their boomer elders. The young ones (again, for the most part) would rather buy modern plastic production. Lionel postwar prices have already significantly declined from their 1990s highs, but new production sells reasonably. Only the mint condition specimens interest the collectors any more. I predict the same for the imported brass models. I have already seen a downturn in prices actually obtained for the more run of the mill brass models. Which is all good for me personally.
My belief is that the past 15 years have really been an aberration in the grand scheme of both the hobby and world economics. In general, Americans have been living beyond their means, which is unsustainable in the long term. The current attempts to prop up what is really an unsustainable economy will fail, and make the needed adjustments that much more difficult. No matter what people want to believe, median housing prices that are greater than 3X the median household income isn't sustainable. The same is going to happen in the hobby. As batch production runs have to get smaller and more expensive in a shrinking market, so prices will have to rise to unsustainable levels. Folks who buy 3-5 $100 locomotives per year will be cutting back to maybe one locomotive per year. Modern plastic production will die a painful death as investors can't sell enough and/or get a high enough price to pay for a production run.
I've read and heard the cries for plastic production for niche eras and prototypes on a regular basis. If it was believed that money could be made catering to those markets, it would have been done. Instead, the niche markets are currently being served by low production rate technologies and cottage manufacturers (etched metal, spin cast metal, resin, and laser cut kits). That's where I see the future of the hobby. These cottage manufacturers will encourage a return to model building because their technologies support kits rather than RTR, and because most of them are craftsmen themselves to make the masters they need.
Also watch for a push by manufacturers toward crerating a distinct "collectables" market in HO, as exists today in N. And more toward the fringes of possibility, perhaps look for a certain new HO manufacturer to begin forcing his competition out of the marketplace one by one and dramatically altering the hobby itself. You may well see it all come to pass. CNJ831
Again, I see the same trends but see a different outcome. Collectables are a 1990s phenomena, and with the number of collectors decreasing, the N collector's market is barely holding its own. A true HO collector's market outside of brass will never happen - my prediction. Yes, there will always be a few collectors of nostalgia - but not enough to support the fanciful collector paint schemes of past N production. Tyco and others tried and couldn't make it under much more favorable conditions.
my thoughts and predictions, yours may differ
Fred W