Probably not. I think some cost increases hadn't been passed along yet as manufacturers/importers didn't want to hike prices too fast. Other things like rising living standards overseas aren't going to reverse easily. If things get a little worse, there will be some going out of business sales. But that's only a one time opportunity and not healthy for the hobby long term.
Enjoy
Paul
I guess a lot of this depends on what China decides to do. They may choose to support their manufacturing exports by keeping their currency artificially low, which many experts say it is, or they may simply let their export prices rise and concentrate on their internal economy.
As demand falls, we may see reduced production to stabilize prices, like we see in oil. Or, they may just cut costs by just producing more copies of existing models, but introducing fewer new ones.
My guess is we will see a stabilization of prices, but not much change either up or down.
<begin soapbox> I think that a serious problem was turned into a crisis by election-year politics and hysterical media attention. Suddenly, obscure banking terminology was on everyone's mind, pounded into us every hour by both CNN and FOX. The fixes might have had more of a chance if consumers hadn't gotten scared and crawled into their burrows, but now all measures of consumer confidence are down, and that's one of the biggest things that drives the American economy. So, I'm urging each of us who does have a steady job and isn't in trouble with his mortgage to take some of that money you're saving on gasoline and heating oil right now and go down to your LHS and spend it. Get that locomotive, or that DCC system. It's highly likely that your LHS is sweating this more than you are, and a bit of consumer confidence is what these shops need right now. <end soapbox>
It takes an iron man to play with a toy iron horse.
Oh yeah the prices will be coming down. I am just waiting for the deals to pop up. It is possible that the companies could go the way of the Big 3 and hit congress up for some money however.
Peter
AJ,
I really do not see prices going down on model railroad items. You might see some inventory clearances by some dealers. It is true that petroleum is used in styrene plastic models, but if there is 50 cents of plastic in a train model I would be suprised. Fuel for transportation/manufacturing also weigh in here.
As the global economy falters, we will just see less new models arrive at our dealers. We do not need model trains to survive. I have never seen them listed as food/clothing /shelter type items.
Myself, if I lose my job before my planned retirement in 3 years; I will just have to 'rough it'. At least my house is paid off, and I can start my defined pension at any time. The bright side is I have lots of 'kits' that need to be assembled!
Jim
Modeling BNSF and Milwaukee Road in SW Wisconsin
Hello everyone,
I'm just curious, but there has been several posts on the boards over the last few years from various people complaining or should I say "stating" that the cost of being in the Model RailRoader hobby is quite expensive and in some aspects I would have to agree; as I think many of you might. I'm not trying to rehash those posts in any way, we all know about it so there's no sense in openning that old wound but I have a new question.
What I would like to know now is, do you think that the cost of our hobby will come down, as not only the US markets but the Global markets head into recession? And when do you think we will to see some kind of drop in prices of MRR items such as loco's, freight, buildings, track......all of which are made of plastic that is directly related to petrolium prices in the making of said plastics. Or at least that was the excuses the industry was using when crude oil was pushing $147 a barrel. Does anyone else have high hopes that even though you may not have the money to purchase MRR items because of the recessions happening globally, that the prices for items in the hobby will eventually come down to normal levels? Whatever that may be?
What say you people? I'm curious to hear your thoughts on this.