Oh yes, here it is. We all know that everything the news media reports is always fair, unbiased and objective and interested in letting the reader come to their own conclusions based only on the presentation of facts without presumption of personal agenda. What a lark.
Whatever, let everybody think the economy is tanked, it just makes it easier for me to buy what I want at excellent prices.
The Dixie D Short Line "Lux Lucet In Tenebris Nihil Igitur Mors Est Ad Nos 2001"
Midnight Railroader The "doom and gloom" is being reported on the news for a reason: It is true.
The "doom and gloom" is being reported on the news for a reason: It is true.
MR:
Oh, I know things are bad.
Where I get off the train is when people continue "...and they will NEVER get better! Not ever!"
Or words to that effect.
Who cares? With the price of everything else bottoming out my money has way more buying power, so I don't care if my hobby comes down in price as my relative worth is going up. I'll buy what I want with all my new disposable wealth.
I think even though the economy is slow and the prices may or may not come down any, but just a matter of where and how you find good deals on what you're looking for. It does pay to shop around, even if it takes using a little gas or spending hours on the computer. Hit those swap meets and such!
I wonder if we might see a more"back to basics" approach to the hobby. More like the 70's with more kits, craftsman type building and freight car kits. Rather than the almost total "RTR" that we see today. I think some of the "modeling" of model railroads went by the wayside with the introduction of almost everything rolling stock and locomotive wise in "Ready To Run" format. I lost my job in July, not a thing avaible localy and even the retailers are cutting hours and laying off due to poor sales. I hope to find something after the 1st of the year. But to keep my modeling alive and my mind busy. I picked up several vintage craftsman kits at the fall train show. They give me many hours of joy putting them together as they are not a 1 night kit. You have to build subassemblies, let the glue dry, then go to the next step. I paid less for these kits than most of the new RTR stuff sells for. I picked up a couple of the old Mantua diecast steam engines that with a few detail parts and a remotor, will run almost as good as the new stuff and pull better to, with no traction tires! The hobby is what you make of it, it has gotten way more expensive in recent years with all the "gold" issue models with full DCC/Sound right from the factory. This is fine and great, but in these rough economic times, who can afford to start building a fleet of DCC/Sound equipted steam engines, let alone start building the layout. Dont forget that the cost of all your basic layout construction equipment has gone up, plywood, 2x4's ect. Every single aspect of any hobby has gone up. I keep my modeling to older engines, no sound and kits that I get to enjoy building. I guess thats my benefit from growing up before the "instant gratification" generation where if you cant take it out of the box and play right away, its not worth buying. Half the fun and enjoyment for me is knowing that "I" built that, not some under paid worker in China. That my USA built Mantua steam loco looks almost as nice as a PFM brass because I spent the time drilling holes and detailing it with brass castings, taking it from almost a toy like engine by todays standards, to a super detailed model to be proud of. I hope costs come down a bit, but I dont see it happening. But I agree we will see less new models in the coming year or two, or atleast till the worlds economy sorts itself out and we regain our footing. Back to playing with trains!! Cheers Mike T
LHS mechanic and geniune train and antique garden tractor nut case!
The reason they must have sold is due to no savings in bank. If a paycheck was missed there was a problem.
Bin Laden destroyed the Towers on 9-11. One of those floors happened to be the people that cut and sent the paper paycheck and envelope we were waiting for that week. Our car had half a tank of gas and we had two bills to pay that week. Autodrafting and direct deposits was not in use at that time. We had a few bucks in pockets and in a can that was to eat and gas cars on for about the three weeks it took for the losses to be replaced and the payroll check cut. (Up to and eventually replacing the three weeks of no payroll people or infrastructure.)
If I remember correctly, spending money for fun was not in budget after that day for a long time. I think we got fuel at a buck something that day and after a nap in a safe haven fuel was 5 something.
MRR costs for the last 5 to 7 years prior to this one was a constant budget item. More or less each month. Ebay was particularly useful for trading off older items to seed improvements in the hobby room.
Jimmydieselfan MAbruce JimmydieselfanI think the biggest problem is people are afraid to spend theyr'e money on anything that is not nessecary. In my opinion that is bad for the economy... Hum, it seems to me that this country already spent their money on things that were not nessecary over the past ten years - and look where it got us. The problem is too many people bought things they couldn't afford in the first place( home and auto loans that were approved that should not have been,they fudged the figures like saying you have more income so you get approved). Example:My freind refinanced (10,000.00 cash back, lower interest rate, pay off credit cards )his house last year. He really couldn't afford the house in the first place at1700.00/month. The guy that came to assess the value of the home told him that he would lie and say the home was worth 40,000 more than it was so he could be approved. It went through and now he has a 1520.00/ payment that he is late on every month almost. He is on the verge of defaulting. Seems to me everybody stopped spending money in the last couple years, especially the last 6 months. If poeple would spend a little more the economy would improve for sure.
MAbruce JimmydieselfanI think the biggest problem is people are afraid to spend theyr'e money on anything that is not nessecary. In my opinion that is bad for the economy... Hum, it seems to me that this country already spent their money on things that were not nessecary over the past ten years - and look where it got us.
JimmydieselfanI think the biggest problem is people are afraid to spend theyr'e money on anything that is not nessecary. In my opinion that is bad for the economy...
Hum, it seems to me that this country already spent their money on things that were not nessecary over the past ten years - and look where it got us.
The problem is too many people bought things they couldn't afford in the first place( home and auto loans that were approved that should not have been,they fudged the figures like saying you have more income so you get approved).
Example:My freind refinanced (10,000.00 cash back, lower interest rate, pay off credit cards )his house last year. He really couldn't afford the house in the first place at1700.00/month. The guy that came to assess the value of the home told him that he would lie and say the home was worth 40,000 more than it was so he could be approved. It went through and now he has a 1520.00/ payment that he is late on every month almost. He is on the verge of defaulting.
Seems to me everybody stopped spending money in the last couple years, especially the last 6 months. If poeple would spend a little more the economy would improve for sure.
The sad part that age old Jones must keep up with the Smiths who must keep up with the Does merry go round is still alive and well.
My late wife and I got caught in that trap when we was first married and later decided its not worth the ride..We got off and lived happily within our means and had more then enough without being head over heels in debt..
Today I see modelers buying high price locomotives only to sell 'em at a later date when the water gets rough..I seen and read about modelers quiting the hobby when they become unemployed..I often question the reason behind that after all the models you have is paid for and cost nothing to keep.I been unemployed several times over the years and that thought never cross my mind after all,I needed something to keep my sanity afloat while I was seeking employment.
As far as the current financial mess..I have had hard times and seen recessions before and life will go on...I will continue to buy what I need.
Larry
Conductor.
Summerset Ry.
"Stay Alert, Don't get hurt Safety First!"
Which is why I carp about scratchbuilding like I do. If I could write how-to's better than I do right now i'd be peppering these forums with them. Mumble,mumble
Any argument carried far enough will end up in Semantics--Hartz's law of rhetoric Emerald. Leemer and Southern The route of the Sceptre Express Barry
I just started my blog site...more stuff to come...
http://modeltrainswithmusic.blogspot.ca/
Scarpia from my experience, it is hard to learn how to from a 2 page article. Steps are necessarily left out, and often the author will unconsciously presume skills that may or may not exist in the reader.
from my experience, it is hard to learn how to from a 2 page article. Steps are necessarily left out, and often the author will unconsciously presume skills that may or may not exist in the reader.
My point exactly. The "two-page" articles of today used to be the nine-page (!) articles of the 60s and the six-page articles of the 80s. That is what this magazine used to do--comprehenive how-to-do-it coverage, not the "buy this and use it" coverage we see today,
You guys can do all the "this only affects Wall Steet" proclaiming you want, but I don't work on Wall Street or in finance at all, and last month, I came very close to being one of the people cut from my company in the name of efficiency.
Also, my 401(k) has lost about 15% of its value over the last six months.
If you haven't (yet) been affected, don't get too confident that you're just fine.
bigironBut if you remember this mess all started with oil. And then diesel went to $4-5/gal. Retailers passed the cost along to the consumer.
Yes and no.
Oil was a catalyst, but not a cause. In reality the cost of oil at the refinery, was out of proportion of what it cost to take it out of the ground and ship it, because of speculators. About 15-20 years ago, there was talk that oil speculation was going to be the next big thing to invest in ( as the cost of oil would just continue to rise ), as as available supplies started running out, and like anything else as people started buying into it, the cost went up, and that fueled further investment ( this is provable by comparing the cost of the oil with the level of inflation - the cost of oil was 2-3 times what it should have been due to inflation alone ).
But even back 12-15 yrs ago, the real savvy folks that were heavily involved in the stock market ( and my broker was one of them ) was saying that the market was artificially high, in part because the government kept telling everyone that would listen, that the economy was in great shape, and so everyone kept putting their money into stocks and that kept pushing it higher - sure we had a minor correction after 9/11, but within a few months stocks had started to rebound, and then went even higher.
When the mortgage bubble was going up, allot more new homes were being built - in many cases at record rates, this did two things, first it increases supply, and second by increasing the supply, it meant that when the bubble actually burst, the overall value of all homes would drop further ( because of excess supply ).
When the mortgage bubble burst, and banks started to have major problems because of that, people started to withdraw money from the stock market, and that reduced the amount of oil speculation and has reduced the actual cost of oil at the refinery and lower fuel prices at the pump.
Despite the drop in fuel prices, food prices have remained steady because, with the loss of a large portion of the corn crop in the Midwest last spring, the cost of all grains ( and all products derived from grains ) has gone up by more than a fair amount, and the cost of other crops have gone up as a result of farmers looking for other feeds, which raises food prices all the way across. I have been raising rabbits for the last 7/8 yrs or so, and I can tell you for a fact that while rising fuel prices increases the cost to a degree on animal feed, a failed crop will do so much faster and to a larger degree - and because of that I'm having to get out of raising rabbits, as they are no longer economical for me to raise, because people do not want to pay me, for what it cost me to feed them, because the cost of alfalfa ( the main component of their feed ) has gone up so much.
So while rising oil prices were the initial reason of increasing food prices, the increased cost of producing food this year, is the reason why those food prices are about the same. It will be at least four to six months before food prices correct due to lower oil prices, because the diverting diesel to heating oil applications, is keeping the cost of diesel up.
Folks:
There is nothing that cheers me up quicker, I think, than the eerie Greek chorus of doom-and-gloom to be found in any online gathering of model railroaders. We are the grim prophets of dark predictions, who dwell in the dreary depths among the mold and mushrooms. It gets so absurdly despairing that it reaches the Eeyore point, where it simply becomes funny.
Look! Aiee, it is snowing! The sun is surely dying of old age, never to return to brightness, never again! All will sink into darkness and cold, darkness and cold, forever and ever and ever!
SERIOUSLY, guys.
I recall the day that the Arab Embargo in the 70's and asked my Father what it meant. What it was was a week of odd and even days and in some cases rationing to x gallons per vehicle. Odd license numbers filled up on odd days and evens filled up on even days. That was a mess. We had a little car that you could fill on 5 bucks and drive just about all week. Loved that little car.
I see oil down below 50 a barrel. Dont be fooled. This is the time after the overture of 140 dollar barrel before the rising of the main symphony.
I dont wish I was young. No sir. When I was young everyone told me no I cannot do this, or that or anything.
Now that I am grown up and old, I try to get ready for the day with lots of savings for when we CANT do anything. If that day should ever come, we will be able to say "Yes we can do it", Lord willing.
Now where did I leave that small list of train things to buy this weekend?
Cheers.
The large model railroad companies that specialize in pricey ready to run equipment are about to face the worst business situation since the 1930s. They’re going to be hit by a double blow, as in this down-turn, the decline in consumer spending has been accompanied and intensified by a freeze in capital markets. Even people who aren’t laid off or fired will be strapped for cash, because the easy credit of the past is drying up. That means customers will be buying less. More significantly, loans normally used to ease businesses through a lull in sales won’t be available this time around. All industries will feel the pinch (look at the US auto manufacturers), but it will probably by magnified in the model railroad industry because of the demography of its customers. A very large share of them is retired or about to retire and will be forced to cut back on spending as retirement funds shrink. With rapidly declining sales in a time of no credit, many famous firms will fold.
But this down-turn has additional complications due to its global nature. Remember that most of the ready-made model equipment is now imported. The big hobby companies are no longer manufacturing firms but import houses that rely heavily on Chinese plants. Many of these foreign suppliers will fail (as many in Central and Eastern Europe have already), reducing the supply of hobby goods even in a recovery—and so eventually pushing up their cost. But more telling will probably be this down-turn’s effect on the value of the dollar—and the price of imports. The dollar, already weakened by the immense debt accumulated by the U.S. (as a combination of trade, government, and consumer deficits), will decline even more sharply relative to other currencies as we go deeper into national debt to offset the credit crunch and growing unemployment. Manufacturers abroad who survive will have to raise their prices in dollars just to keep even, making hobby products a lot more expensive. A similar scenario took place after the big recession that followed the 1974 oil crisis: remember what happened to the price of Japanese brass in the ‘80s? This time it will be Chinese plastics.
So I suspect the age of inexpensive, ready-made plastic trains is ending. Good imported models will no doubt still be made after a recovery, but here—as is already the case in Europe—they will be pricey. On the other hand, the down-turn may lead to a revival of US kit production. Cash strapped customers, like their counterparts in the Great Depression, may find that kit building at home is not only a more affordable approach to the hobby but a less costly leisure activity than others outside the home. And the small individually or family run firms that produce most of the kits sold in this country won’t be hit hard by the rising cost of foreign production or falling value of the dollar. Domestic companies producing kits for resin cars, laser cut structures, and hand laid track supplies seem to be increasing and faring reasonably well. And have you noticed the upsurge in CDs and online tutorials about how to do things on your own? I even expect we’ll see more kits for locomotives before too long.
Not all modelers will accept these changes. Those who refuse to build on their own and lack the money to buy costly ready-made equipment will drop out of the hobby. So the size and nature of the hobby clientele will alter once more. And as for publications, well, they will alter too with the change in clientele. Indeed, recent changes in the model press may already be reflecting a shift in the hobby. Small, niche based magazines that cater to areas of the hobby that involve some scratch building and kit bashing appear to be doing better than those trying to hold onto a mass audience primarily interested in ready-made equipment. Several of the latter have already folded in the last few years. What does their failure foretell?
Voyageur
Greg H, it's true of what you state. But if you remember this mess all started with oil. And then diesel went to $4-5/gal. Retailers passed the cost along to the consumer. Then the mortgage bubble burst, then the insurance companies, then the banks, then the big three, then.........well we can figure that one out can't we? My point was, I think folks think that with the price of oil/gas going down..things will return to normal. Not. You can bet gas is going back up after the first of the year. We have all lived through the floods, hurricanes, tornado's, frost and drought that have affected commodities, and we have weathered through it. We are on a different playing field now, with different players other than mother nature. I could go on and on, but from where I sit.......a lot of people are misinformed and complacent.
Back to MR'ing, I remember when I was a kid'in the 60's. We didn't have much money and my mom worked hard to support us. I had an HO set.......I used to walk around the house looking for materials to scratchbuild with. Couldn't wait until a roll of toilet paper was used up for the cardboard tube. It was kind of nice to have to use your brain to come up with a design. Those were the good days. Wish I could go back. My kids always wished to grow up, so they could drive and have independence. I used to say" someday you'll wish you were young again "
I have followed a little of the Financial problems as presented by one of the satellite channels. Certain segments might disappear from the USA and change the way we do things. But I figure we will make do like always. No use getting all worried over nothing which will be zero anyhow.
bigiron If you turn on the radio or TV it's all doom and gloom in the market and financial world. The media has fed a frenzy now. Some people are scrared and some are terrified. I found it best not to watch the news or listen to the radio. I only read the local section in the paper now. And I don't check my stocks or 401K's. I will work till I drop. I will drop as MR'r and will not give up my hobby. I will only buy what I need or must have though.
If you turn on the radio or TV it's all doom and gloom in the market and financial world. The media has fed a frenzy now. Some people are scrared and some are terrified. I found it best not to watch the news or listen to the radio. I only read the local section in the paper now. And I don't check my stocks or 401K's. I will work till I drop. I will drop as MR'r and will not give up my hobby. I will only buy what I need or must have though.
Absolutely! I am not worried about the "economy " doom and gloom we hear so much about on CNN and Fox...That's for the fat cats on Wall Street.
I am medically retired and live on a fixed income...You want to talk about gloomy economical conditions? Ask any retiree that fails to live on a budget..I live on a budget and still manage to enjoy the simple pleasures of this life.
I took my daughter shopping in Mansfield and every major store we stopped in the store was crowded and folks was buying.I went to Kroger yesterday and the store was extremely busy for a county with 9% unemployment.
CNJ831With regard to that first sentence, I would have to say quite honestly that unless you are talking about only small, simple structures, then scratchbuilding will beat commercial products hands down in price every time by a decided margin - especially with regard to creating something comparable to the highend structure kits (which one might consider almost scratch anyway!). I have scratchbuilt quite a number of FSM replicas, generally for about 15% or less of their going kit price and 5% of that for a finished model built from the same kit. I consider my models on a par with any of those from the FSM kits (I don't go in for the caricaturish overweathering, however), so there is nothing lost. The structure below was built for between $35 and $50 - all the basic materials being bought at the time of construction, not using any stock I had on hand. The current going price for the FSM kit for this exact structure is $440 - built-up examples go for close to twice that much! When it comes to creating keynote structures for your layout, nothing beats scratchbuilding for saving handfuls of cash. CNJ831
With regard to that first sentence, I would have to say quite honestly that unless you are talking about only small, simple structures, then scratchbuilding will beat commercial products hands down in price every time by a decided margin - especially with regard to creating something comparable to the highend structure kits (which one might consider almost scratch anyway!).
I have scratchbuilt quite a number of FSM replicas, generally for about 15% or less of their going kit price and 5% of that for a finished model built from the same kit. I consider my models on a par with any of those from the FSM kits (I don't go in for the caricaturish overweathering, however), so there is nothing lost.
The structure below was built for between $35 and $50 - all the basic materials being bought at the time of construction, not using any stock I had on hand. The current going price for the FSM kit for this exact structure is $440 - built-up examples go for close to twice that much!
When it comes to creating keynote structures for your layout, nothing beats scratchbuilding for saving handfuls of cash.
CNJ831
CNJ - I'd never argue that it wasn't a lot less than the comparable pre-built model, especially the large ones (and using FSM as a comparison isn't fair! - but that it isn't "free".
You note that this fantastic build was done in the $35-50 range - even that can be a lot of money for some folks, especially as there's no guarantee on the end result. I could spend twice that on scratch building parts, and get something that's less than satisfying than what the kit would result in. You've gotten your great results after some practice with other builds, no doubt about it, but that practice takes time
I'm not advocating not scratch building - I do all the time in other genre's and I think it's an important part of any modeling hobby. I'm simply noting that it's not cost free, and in relation to my original post, I'm not sure if a lot of 2 page articles on scratch built "whatever's" would generate a lot of folks doing it. I'd still read the articles though..
Off topic, great build. I love how you got the one flat roof to sag under the sign - or is that an optical illusion?
Cheers
I'm trying to model 1956, not live in it.
loathar RT wrote- There were, I understand, between thirty and forty companies producing automobiles in 1929; by 1939 that number had dwindled to thirteen or so! So does that mean we'll all be running Bachmann locos on Atlas track with McHenrey couplers in the future?
RT wrote- There were, I understand, between thirty and forty companies producing automobiles in 1929; by 1939 that number had dwindled to thirteen or so!
So does that mean we'll all be running Bachmann locos on Atlas track with McHenrey couplers in the future?
I know you have tongue-in-cheek with your response but you stumbled onto the head of the nail!
From the far, far reaches of the wild, wild west I am: rtpoteet
If it wasn't for those loans, the economy would not have droped. It's the banks' faults for giving away those loans!
Still, Its our responsibility to get the economy out of this mess. We need to stop panicking and start buying more stocks!!!
Spread the word!!!
bigironI don't see my grocery bill coming down?
That's because food prices are controlled by more than fuel prices ( and now the EPA is thinking about charging a pollution tax on every pig and cattle and that will drive the food bill even higher ), simple bad weather can wipe out a years worth of work for a farmer, and don't for get that the mid-west was hit with flooding late last spring.
Jimmydieselfan The problem is too many people bought things they couldn't afford in the first place( home and auto loans that were approved that should not have been,they fudged the figures like saying you have more income so you get approved). snip The guy that came to assess the value of the home told him that he would lie and say the home was worth 40,000 more than it was so he could be approved.
snip
The guy that came to assess the value of the home told him that he would lie and say the home was worth 40,000 more than it was so he could be approved.
My wife and I went through some of this, only we were not told that the value of the house was going to be fudged.
In the long run, it turned out that we ended up paying the same amount in mortgage but now the house has lower equity. How many people were never told that the value of their homes were being artificial inflated?
One indicator of the economy is the price of brass, sure, there are still $1800.00 locos out there, but you can buy some beautiful classic brass for @$300.00 and under. As for "too many rich people in this hobby'') I must agree, some comments on this forum lead me to believe there are wealthy hobbyists to whom price is no object, they buy everything available and in bulk, these people care not about the economy and believe that everyone is in the same financial situation as they are, so the rest of us mooks will make do with very limited budgets and lots of scratchbuilding which is why we entered this hobby in the first place.
loathar MAbruce wrote-Can't spend what you don't have. Since when??? I wish somebody would tell THAT to the government!
MAbruce wrote-Can't spend what you don't have.
Since when??? I wish somebody would tell THAT to the government!
Maybe that's it - people were only trying to follow our government's budget/spending practices and learned the hard way that ONLY they are allowed to do this (and get away with it).
Seriously, I suspect that while there are those who are clearly in dire financial trouble, there are many others who are only cutting back because they are unsure what’s going to happen and don’t want to be caught in a financial bind if things do go bad for them.
I personally (and fortunately) never got caught up in uncontrolled spending/debt, and my job seems stable for the time being. But despite this, I’m being extra careful with my spending. While an economy like this will present a lot of great deals, I’ll likely pass most of those opportunities by in favor of hanging onto my money.
RECESSION? MONEY?
I don't know about you'se turkeys but this'un has as much money to spend today as he did yesterday;
I DIDN'T HIT THE POWERBALL LAST NIGHT! <SOB! SOB!>
I had to look in the dictionary to find out if "ZERO" was spelled with one or two "Os"!
Seriously, I suspect that most of us are going to have to tighten up our belts to make ends meet over the course of the next year or so. As far as the matter of marketing is concerned one of the lessons from a college economics class was that as demand drops so also should supply--either that or manufacturers must lower their prices to stimulate more demand which will raise prices. All is well and good in that manner except that, unfortunately, certain manufacturers will find that they cannot produce their product at the price they would have to charge to stay afloat and they will not. Either that or they will reduce their production and raise their prices catering to those of us who do have money.The hobby may suffer over the course of these next few years but it will, I feel, come back! There were, I understand, between thirty and forty companies producing automobiles in 1929; by 1939 that number had dwindled to thirteen or so!