Will DC layouts go the way of VHS?

[alcofanschdy]

I asked the owner of the LHS I go to mostly and asked him what he thought and he said the vast majority of his customers were into DC.  Most had small layouts and not the large MR Mag type layouts that would support DCC.  He does have a lot of customers that use DCC but DC is still dominate in his shop.  I'd like to hear what other LHS owners are experiencing in this.

Bruce 

[twhite]

Hopefully, DC will be around as long as I am, but since I'm 68, who knows?  But for me, converting my huge brass steam fleet to DCC would just be too big a financial outlay at this time in my life (and no, don't tell me 'just do it one locomotive at a time', I never know which of my 50-odd brass steamers I'm going to want to run at any given time).  However, if I were some twenty years younger, I'd probably jump on the DCC bandwagon.  But I'll leave the conversion to whoever gets my brass collection after I'm gone.  Let it be THEIR problem.

Tom  

[BurbankAV]

I'm really surprised that Blue Ray won out over HD DVD. HD DVD was less expensive, but apparently some of the other big studios threw their hats towards Blue ray because of the larger storage capabilities they could see as furthering their revenue stream.

Wrong. The adult movie industry couldn't fit a full length movie on a single Beta so they threw their support behind VHS.
HD DVD is so high resolution that it shows too many blemishes on the adult "actors" so they supported the lower quality Blue Ray format.
They are the largest user of these medium in the world so they dictate the standards.
(now you know the seedy truth)

Sorry to contradict you, Loathar, but the adult film industry was not the determining factor in the HDDVD/BluRay fight.  The key players here were the major studios.  As Driline wrote, BluRay has significantly more storage.  From a marketing perspective, that means you can put more garbage extras on a disc, thus increasing the marketability.  But the other significant issue in this fight was compatibility: HDDVD uses Microsoft-proprietary code, but Blu-Ray is Java-based, and is therefore platform-independent.  Since both MS and Apple are pushing the idea of the computer as the all-in-one entertainment device, it doesn't make sense to exclude those consumers who would want to watch a disc on their Apple (or, for that matter, Linux) computers.  From the outset, several studios supported both formats, and several (including my employer) refused to support HDDVD, but only one refused to support Blu-Ray.  At that point HDDVD was doomed -- in our world, we knew which way this would go almost two years ago.

But back to important things: DCC vs. DC.  One factor to keep in mind in this discussion is the lifespan of the technology.  The longer the technology keeps working, the longer it will be supported by the manufacturers.  It's not uncommon for a DC layout to exist for twenty or thirty years (or more), and if the owners remain satisfied with them, they will continue to be a customer base for DC.  I don't think we're deep enough into the "DCC age" to know what the real lifspan of DCC layouts might be.  Until a couple of years ago, those who went DCC would have been considered "early adopters" -- and they're more likely to embrace change, so their layouts are more likely to have a shorter lifespan (without significant change).

Mind you, I'm not saying DC won't go away, I just think it might take a lot longer than some on this thread might think.

My ,

Peter 

[jecorbett]

Blank VHS tapes are still readily available. Like DC locomotives will be for a long time to come.

Anynody know WHY VHS beat out Beta?

Yes.

Although Beta was of slightly superior quality in terms of color reproduction, it was waaayy more expensive. The public voted with their wallets and it was eventually doomed. It didn't help that Sony was the only other manufacturer of the technology either.

I'm really surprised that Blue Ray won out over HD DVD. HD DVD was less expensive, but apparently some of the other big studios threw their hats towards Blue ray because of the larger storage capabilities they could see as furthering their revenue stream.

I think this response hits the nail on the head. The public will vote with their dollars whether they want to keep DC around. As long as there is sufficient demand for both platforms, DC and DCC will co-exist. However, when the day comes (and I think it will), that DCC demand far outstrips DC, manufacturers are going to ask themselves if it is cost effective to produce lines for both and in all likelihood, they are going to reach the point where they don't think it is profitable and DC will be dropped. When that tipping point will come is a guess but I have little doubt that day will come. DC proponents will continue to find ways to operate their layouts, but the manufacturers will not cater to them the way they do now. So says Carnac the Magnificent.

[jfugate]

Usually at the 20-year mark is when a new technology becomes entrenched. For DCC, this will be somewhere around 2013 ... so we're still some 5 years away from that time.

I do see DCC becoming like radio control is to model airplanes ... you don't have to model airplanes that way, but it's considered the defacto standard if you want the most flexible control of your model.  You can still buy low end model airplanes that don't come with radio control, for example ... but most serious model airplane hobbyists graduate to radio control pretty quickly.

I see the same thing happening with DCC. You will still be able to buy less costly locomotives that don't come with DCC decoders already installed. But most locos will be DCC-ready and allow plug-and-play DCC decoder installation.

I think we're still at least 5 years away from this "defacto" standard, however. 

[MisterBeasley]

The manufacturers are on top of this, from what I can tell.  You can buy the same engine DC-only, or equipped with sound and a dual-mode decoder.  It's really the same engine inside, with the exception of the circuit board and speaker.  The dual-mode decoder allows the engine to run on a DC layout, so as more DC users discover sound, they will be able to go down that path without converting to DCC.

Even now, the biggest stumbling block to conversion is the large fleet of DC-only engines that would require decoders.  As older engines are retired, and their replacements are all either DCC-ready or equipped with dual-mode decoders, that transition becomes easier and easier.

Besides, DCC is just so much more fun.

[tomikawaTT]

Back when I started model railroading, the standard DC voltage had just been raised from six to twelve volts, and taper-wound rheostats could control any model locomotive made.

Has anybody (other than Yours Truly) tried to control a can-motored locomotive with a 40 ohm rheostat?  Zero to track speed(plus) instantly!

One bump on the path of Model Railroad progress was a radio-controlled F7 A-B set powered by on-board batteries.  It didn't even need track!  However, the batteries were only good for a couple of minutes, so, except for the novelty effect of an uncontrollable (from the DC panels) train on a club layout, it quickly faded from view.

Thanks to a sizeable roster of open-frame motored equipment and a disinclination to put myself at the mercy of electronics I don't understand and probably can't repair in-house, I am committed to analog DC.  Which direction(s) others wish to travel is their problem.  I just hope they will have as much fun as I do.

Chuck (modeling Central Japan in September, 1964 - with 1970's control technology)

[phatkat64]

DCC will continue to grow, and we all hope it does! DCC is nothing short of revolutionary, and a Godsend for those of frustrated with flipping block switches, among many other advantages.

This hobby still very much needs DC. There always needs to be a cheap "IN" for newcomers to the hobby. The formula that we accidentally started works well - start with an inexpensive train set, enjoy running it, build a simple layout, learn how to build and then master scenery and structures, then ADD DCC to that experience.

I just sounded too much like an old fart, didn't I??! I believe it though.

[wjstix]

Well VHS vs. Beta is just another example of what always happens in America, someone comes out with a great quality but expensive product, and goes bankrupt when someone else comes out with a medium quality cheap version. It's true for American TV's going back to the forties, could argue Mac vs. PC was the same thing too.

The problem with Astrac was that although it worked fine, it was proprietary like Hornby's Zero-1 system. You had to either use the one company's product exclusively to use it. Thanks to the NMRA standards we have several manufacturers making compatible DCC equipment, so you can have an Atlas engine with a TCS decoder and a Soundtraxx sound decoder run by a Digitrax control system.

Anyway...I can't see young folks joining the hobby not using DCC in the future, so I suspect DC will go like outside-third-rail in O scale - you'll see people using it for a long time, (MR featured such a layout around 1990 IIRC) but each year the pct. of them around will diminish as they convert or die off. They may be a significant number for a long time, but the pct. of modellers using DC started to decline as soon as DCC came out, and it will continue to decline in the future...at least until fuel costs become so high that we go back to running trains on big DC batteries like car batteries, only now solar rechargeable.

[selector]

I would answer the question, but first, what's VHS?

[Bill54]

I've only been into model railroading since 2005 and from what I read DCC started about 10 or so years earlier. 

All the manufacturers I can think of still make DC models as well as DCC.  So I don't think anyone using DC should worry that there won't be power packs made still 10 years from now. 

With that said, DCC has made some substantial strides since it's introduction in the 1990's and will continue to for years to come.  With newer technology eventually DC will go by the wayside but that is still years from now.

Bill

[loathar]

Blank VHS tapes are still readily available. Like DC locomotives will be for a long time to come.

Anynody know WHY VHS beat out Beta?

Yes.

Although Beta was of slightly superior quality in terms of color reproduction, it was waaayy more expensive. The public voted with their wallets and it was eventually doomed. It didn't help that Sony was the only other manufacturer of the technology either.

I'm really surprised that Blue Ray won out over HD DVD. HD DVD was less expensive, but apparently some of the other big studios threw their hats towards Blue ray because of the larger storage capabilities they could see as furthering their revenue stream.

Wrong. The adult movie industry couldn't fit a full length movie on a single Beta so they threw their support behind VHS.
HD DVD is so high resolution that it shows too many blemishes on the adult "actors" so they supported the lower quality Blue Ray format.
They are the largest user of these medium in the world so they dictate the standards.
(now you know the seedy truth)

[Driline]

Blank VHS tapes are still readily available. Like DC locomotives will be for a long time to come.

Anynody know WHY VHS beat out Beta?

Yes.

Although Beta was of slightly superior quality in terms of color reproduction, it was waaayy more expensive. The public voted with their wallets and it was eventually doomed. It didn't help that Sony was the only other manufacturer of the technology either.

I'm really surprised that Blue Ray won out over HD DVD. HD DVD was less expensive, but apparently some of the other big studios threw their hats towards Blue ray because of the larger storage capabilities they could see as furthering their revenue stream.

[jeffrey-wimberly]

Back in the early 70's I had an Astrac system that could run multiple trains on the same track in much the way that DCC does. It did this by sending radio waves through the rails to recievers in the locomotives. It was considered to be the next big thing and would push DC totally out the door. Then all of a sudden, poof! It was gone! I can't even find a reference to it on an internet search. I have a feeling that DC will still be around for quite a while. As for finding VHS tapes for my VCR, the Wal-Mart here has tons of them.

[loathar]

Blank VHS tapes are still readily available. Like DC locomotives will be for a long time to come.

Anynody know WHY VHS beat out Beta?

[ChrisNH]

I suspect the collector's market will keep DC alive for a good long time. On top of that, some DC folks are not just content with DC, they are fanatical about staying DC and provide a very vocal market for the DC only products..

Chris 

[pcarrell]

So what you're really asking is, "Will technological progress continue to happen?"  I'm betting on the answer being "Yes".

[mikesmowers]

  It is hard to tell what the future will hold. I would guess that DC will probley fade out and be replaced with DCC but not very fast. I imagine that DCC will at some time will be replaced with some other type of control.

  In my mind I can see in the future that model trains could be controled by remote control, similar to a TV set, using on board battries for the power and track voltage to charge the battries. Battries are getting better and smaller every day.

  When I was a young child (probley 40 plus years ago) I ask my dad why they couldn't make a record that would not skip. He told me that they already do, by using lazers, but they were very expensive and we would  not see them in our lifetime due to the expense. He was seeing DVDs and CDs before they  were really  in extistance yet. The only time my Dad was wrong. (Sorry Dad.)     Miike
 

[Dallas Model Works]

My bet is that as the cost of DCC comes down, new people enter the hobby and older ones die off (to put it bluntly), that -- yes -- DC will go the way of the dodo.

Two standards is just not cost effective for the manufacturers.

Since going DCC myself, I couldn't imagine going back to DC and all the crazy block control switch flipping.

An alternative is that an "improved DCC" appears and replaces both.

 

[simon1966]

Not any time soon.  Consider if you will that the likes of BLI have most recently introduced sound units without DCC decoders to address the DC market.  There are a lot of modellers that are content with DC, have well designed and working systems and don't see the need to change to DCC. I would expect that most new layouts under construction would go DCC, but that there will continue to be many DC layouts for the next decade or so.

[jecorbett]

It doesn't seem that long ago that VHS won the battle with Beta as the standard VCR recorder/player but now that technology is considered to be Stone Age. I'm sure many of us still have them and use them but for the most part, they have been replaced by DVD and DVR. Good luck trying to buy either blank or prerecorded VHS tapes unless it is at a garage sale. So will DCC become so popular that DC layouts will soon be considered obsolete. For a long time, knuckle couplers were considered add-on equipment but now they are the standard and most equipment I buy doesn't even include the horn-hooks anymore. Likewise, will manufacturers quit offering DC locomotives and go strictly with decoder equipped locos. I can't see DC becoming completely extinct. There will always be some holdouts. I still know of people who play vinyl records and have working 8-track players. Is the day coming when DCC will completely push DC offerings out of the market place and the DC holdouts will have to REMOVE the factory decoders and build their own powerpacks just so they can continue to operate their DC layouts.