Who bought who, and who just folded?

[Paul3]

Andre,
Please consider taking this advice (unless you're having fun with him): forget ever trying to win an argument with John Bortle (CNJxyz) about the future of this hobby.  Instead, let him broil alone in his own juices.  He is one of the original internet "doom-and-gloomers"...one who has predicted the death of the hobby for years and years (and one day, he'll be right...just you wait).  And if you disagree, he'll call you a "pollyanna".  Here's some of his quotes from the newsgroup rec.models.railroad from almost 10 years ago:

1998:

"For many years (1970-1990) most brass was reasonably priced or at least
affordable to many hobbiest. Over the past ten years the market has completely
lost its mind and prices have spiralled to rediculous heights for new models. A
good, large loco that went for $300-$400 at issue a decade ago will now command
around $2,000 if reproduced today. And guys, please don't tell me about cost of
living or inflation, it hasn't gone up 500% ! I appreciate that the cost of
doing business with Asian builders has increased greatly, I just wish to point
out that the product has today out-priced 75%+ of the original buying public."

"As to the high prices of current imported brass models, the second poster got
it largely correct - GREED. The importers have created an artificial scarity of
a given model by way of very small production runs and then soak the buyers for
ever cent they can get - a mentality that I think is rapidly spreading
throughout model railroading in general."

1999:

"This topic was also covered in the AOL discussion and the figures are somewhat
disturbing. MR claimed (from their own surveys) a median age of 31-32 for the
"average" modeler in the 1950's. This had increased to 40 years by 1984 and the
figures published in January 1999 indicate an age of 50 for the typical modeler
now. One suspects that as the Boomers begin to die off a decade or so from now,
the hobby may start a long downward spiral unless a great deal of new blood is
brought in to the fold soon."

"As to the demise of the hobby, it will be the  rapidly rising prices of motive
power and operating systems that will in time discourage most new, especially
younger, people from thinking about entering the hobby - not a bad experience
visiting a club open house."

"As one of the previous posters suggests, now is not a particularly good time to
start collecting model trains! The Lionel market has totally lost its mind, as
has brass, and thanks to recent editions of the Greenberg books that address
certain HO makers, this area is moving rapidly down this same road. Currently,
many older, non-brass HO items are being offered (and not sold) at well beyond
three time their honest value and most true collectors have left the market.
Varney items are by far the most overpriced, but even Tycho "junk" is sometimes
going for absurd prices."

2000:

"If one examines the magazine ads from the late 1950's thru much of the 1980's,
it is apparent that HO locomotive, and model prices in general, remained low
relative to personal income. The past 5 years or so have seen a dramatic
increase in prices but also in product quality. With a number of plastic models
currently going for around $200, you are talking about such models selling at
far and away more than they used to cost relative to income. You are getting a
better product, yes, but most of us can't afford to buy nearly as many
locomotives as we used to."

"Today the hobby is totally dominated by middle-aged or older men and is
probably at or just past its all-time peak. As the Boomers start dying off in
10-15 years, the hobby will almost certainly see a dramatic shrinkage in its
size and in product demand (a slow but steady decline in a number of areas is
already becoming apparent). In that day, prices will either have to decrease to
relative former levels or most companies will go out of business - just see how
limited brass models have become in the hobby - probably a 10th the volume they
were 20-25 years ago."

As you can plainly see, we're all doooooooooooooooooooomed...unless we follow "John Bortle's True Path to Model Railroading Enlightenment"(tm)  Just ask him, he'll tell you.

Paul A. Cutler III
************
If that's your thing, I certainly have no gripe - enjoy
the hobby any way that is good for you! - JBortle, 1999 (oh, the irony!)
************

[Shilshole]

As you can plainly see, we're all doooooooooooooooooooomed...unless we follow "John Bortle's True Path to Model Railroading Enlightenment"(tm)

 

You owe me $3.

--
OvC 

[modelmaker51]

Thought I'd add one more to the original topic: Bachmann bought Weaver (0 scale). The original owner is retiring.

[Dave Vollmer]

"I'm here for the hobby..."

[IRONROOSTER]

"I'm here for the hobby..."

I love it.

Enjoy

Paul 

[Trainman01]

It seems that the real loosers are new people to the hobby.  We used to feel the Walthers catalog was kinda the Bible for the hobby.  Nearly everything that was available could be found in the catalog.  Not so now.  It's bound to be very confusing to the new guys.  My suggestion is to buddy up to a good hobby dealer, or fellowship with a club.  This has become too big a problem for one to try to handle alone.

[andrechapelon]

Thought I'd add one more to the original topic: Bachmann bought Weaver (0 scale). The original owner is retiring.

They bought Williams, not Weaver. Weaver is still independent.

Andre

[BRAKIE]

"I'm here for the hobby..."

I love it.

Enjoy

Paul 

 

 

[andrechapelon]

Andre,
Please consider taking this advice (unless you're having fun with him): forget ever trying to win an argument with John Bortle (CNJxyz) about the future of this hobby.  Instead, let him broil alone in his own juices.  He is one of the original internet "doom-and-gloomers"...one who has predicted the death of the hobby for years and years (and one day, he'll be right...just you wait).  And if you disagree, he'll call you a "pollyanna".  Here's some of his quotes from the newsgroup rec.models.railroad from almost 10 years ago:

Paul, I don't care if I ever "win" the argument because it's just SO much fun to make the counter argument. I'll argue against the "we're doomed" crowd, "the hobby is way too expensive crowd" and the "craftsmanship is dead, the hobby's golden age was <insert dates of mythical golden age here>". 

He's only about 3 years older than I am, so I can pretty much remember any era he talks about. I got my start in HO with a Mantua "Little Six" and a Silver Streak caboose my dad bought me for Christmas in 1954. I bought my first issue of MR in 1957 (my dad apparently didn't think I might be interested in the mag, or he would have bought one). I've built several Mantua locos as well as a Varney "Casey Jones". Much of the time spent in building kit locomotives consisted of filing off copious amounts of flash on various components. If you built a car kit other than a "shake the box" kit, it usually required additional paint as the only painted parts were the car sides, trucks (many, if not most, kits were sold without trucks and couplers) and if the kit was a combination wood/metal kit, you were stuck with more flash removal. If you wanted the best trucks, you bought Central Valley. Actually, if you wanted trucks that actually stayed on the rails, you bought Central Valley. IIRC, a pair of CV 6 wheel passenger car trucks cost about $3.25 in the early 1960's (over $22 in today's inflated currency). By the time you got finished building one of those "fantastic" kits from the "Golden Age", you often had spent up to twice as much as the price on the kit box when you factored in paint, trucks and couplers. Even then, you didn't have anything nearly as well detailed as you can get RTR today.

This item http://www.walthers.com/exec/productinfo/932-9205 is listed at $44.98 MSRP today. That's the equivalent to $6.55 back about the time I was a junior in high school. I seem to remember that Walthers heavyweight passenger car kits sold for somewhere in the neighborhood of $4.00 each. Then there was the need for trucks and couplers. I've already mentioned Central Valleys above. Then there was the superdetail kit to bring our car up to something vaguely resembling the detail level of today. Those were around $1.25 or so, IIRC. A two pair pack of Kadee MKD-5's (#5's today) sold for about $1.50 (75 cents/pair). OK, so we have $4.00 + 3.25 + 1.25 + .75. Let's stop there and forget that we still have to paint and decal (more money) our passenger car. We now have $9.00 invested so far and we haven't accounted for the pro-rated cost of tools, paint, decals, etc. Adjusting for inflation with that $9.00, that's $61.82 (a couple of bucks more than a Rapido car - except that the Rapido car is layout ready). This is vs. the $44.98 Walthers car.

Want more? You can get a 3 unit kit pack of heavyweight coaches from Branchline for 2 cents less than $120 MSRP http://www.branchline-trains.com/blueprint/passengercars/pairedcoach/pairedcoach.html . Deflating back to 1963 prices, that's $17.47 for 3 cars that come equipped with trucks, couplers and highly detailed underbodies. If you don't want a 3 pack, the single kits are $39.98 MSRP ($5.82 deflated to 1963 prices). They're also painted. IOW, when you get right down to it, they're cheaper on a relative basis than the available equivalent 45 years ago. And that's at full retail

But of course, the hobby is overpriced.

Not to mention on its deathbed.

Yeah, right.

Andre

 

[Anonymous]

There he goes again with the negative waves (to paraphase Donald Sutherland in "Kelly's Heroes") http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0065938/ .

Little lesson in history. Here's a list of defunct US car makers: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_defunct_United_States_automobile_manufacturers There are no new builders of automobiles in the US. US plants of foreign manufacturers don't count.

Dead airplane manufacturers (from memory): Curtiss-Wright, Convair, Douglas, North American, Martin, AviaBellanca, Ercoupe, Aeronca, Taylorcraft, Ryan Aeronautical (Ryan build the Spirit of St. Louis). There is only 1 manufacturer of large commercial aircraft in the US and that is Boeing. At one time, Douglas, Lockheed, and Convair build commercial jets. There are no new commercial airplane builders in the US.

Dead locomotive companies: ALCO (and all its 7 component companies, note: ALCO also made automobiles), Baldwin, Lima, Willamette, Westinghouse, Ingalls Shipbuilding, Amoskeag, Climax, Heisler, Whitcomb,Vulcan, Hinkley, Tredegar Iron Works, Davenport, Plymouth .

Instead of endlessly posting pointless, unrelated fluff, Andre, how about for a change try posting some solid, contrary, evidence that addresses what I've posted. Folks here love to make snide remarks re posts they disagree with but consistantly lack the ability to show any convincing, opposing evidence.

CNJ831 

I agree...he has yet to post ANY dollars and cents information that show competition in this hooby.

I and my wallet are still waiting....

TMT

[andrechapelon]

There he goes again with the negative waves (to paraphase Donald Sutherland in "Kelly's Heroes") http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0065938/ .

Little lesson in history. Here's a list of defunct US car makers: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_defunct_United_States_automobile_manufacturers There are no new builders of automobiles in the US. US plants of foreign manufacturers don't count.

Dead airplane manufacturers (from memory): Curtiss-Wright, Convair, Douglas, North American, Martin, AviaBellanca, Ercoupe, Aeronca, Taylorcraft, Ryan Aeronautical (Ryan build the Spirit of St. Louis). There is only 1 manufacturer of large commercial aircraft in the US and that is Boeing. At one time, Douglas, Lockheed, and Convair build commercial jets. There are no new commercial airplane builders in the US.

Dead locomotive companies: ALCO (and all its 7 component companies, note: ALCO also made automobiles), Baldwin, Lima, Willamette, Westinghouse, Ingalls Shipbuilding, Amoskeag, Climax, Heisler, Whitcomb,Vulcan, Hinkley, Tredegar Iron Works, Davenport, Plymouth .

Instead of endlessly posting pointless, unrelated fluff, Andre, how about for a change try posting some solid, contrary, evidence that addresses what I've posted. Folks here love to make snide remarks re posts they disagree with but consistantly lack the ability to show any convincing, opposing evidence.

CNJ831 

I agree...he has yet to post ANY dollars and cents information that show competition in this hooby.

I and my wallet are still waiting....

TMT

Hey dude, I posted 4  links to places selling the Polar Express Disappearing  Hobo car for less than MSRP. The post where the links occur is in this thread. Go look for it. I'm not doing your homework for you.

It was what you asked for. If you're too lazy to look for replies to your questions, don't blame those who accomodate your requests.

Andre

[jguess733]

It appears to me that this topic has gotten slightly off topic. Instead of attacking one another why don't we stick to the history of the hobby? I find the history of the manufactures just as intriguing as the researching the history of my favorite prototype railroads.

[Anonymous]

There he goes again with the negative waves (to paraphase Donald Sutherland in "Kelly's Heroes") http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0065938/ .

Little lesson in history. Here's a list of defunct US car makers: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_defunct_United_States_automobile_manufacturers There are no new builders of automobiles in the US. US plants of foreign manufacturers don't count.

Dead airplane manufacturers (from memory): Curtiss-Wright, Convair, Douglas, North American, Martin, AviaBellanca, Ercoupe, Aeronca, Taylorcraft, Ryan Aeronautical (Ryan build the Spirit of St. Louis). There is only 1 manufacturer of large commercial aircraft in the US and that is Boeing. At one time, Douglas, Lockheed, and Convair build commercial jets. There are no new commercial airplane builders in the US.

Dead locomotive companies: ALCO (and all its 7 component companies, note: ALCO also made automobiles), Baldwin, Lima, Willamette, Westinghouse, Ingalls Shipbuilding, Amoskeag, Climax, Heisler, Whitcomb,Vulcan, Hinkley, Tredegar Iron Works, Davenport, Plymouth .

Instead of endlessly posting pointless, unrelated fluff, Andre, how about for a change try posting some solid, contrary, evidence that addresses what I've posted. Folks here love to make snide remarks re posts they disagree with but consistantly lack the ability to show any convincing, opposing evidence.

CNJ831 

I agree...he has yet to post ANY dollars and cents information that show competition in this hooby.

I and my wallet are still waiting....

TMT

Hey dude, I posted 4  links to places selling the Polar Express Disappearing  Hobo car for less than MSRP. The post where the links occur is in this thread. Go look for it. I'm not doing your homework for you.

It was what you asked for. If you're too lazy to look for replies to your questions, don't blame those who accomodate your requests.

Andre

 I saw your post..and noted that you did not quote the prices...intentionally.

Try posting the total cost of each seller to your door and show us how it is competitive...it isn't.

My point exactly...and the one that you are trying to avoid addressing.

TMT

[andrechapelon]

I saw your post..and noted that you did not quote the prices...intentionally.

Try posting the total cost of each seller to your door and show us how it is competitive...it isn't.

My point exactly...and the one that you are trying to avoid addressing.

TMT

http://www.whistle-stop.com/2007/10/polar-express-disappearing-hobo-car.html

$48.99 for the car. $10 for shipping. Total $58.99 vs. MSRP of 64.99.

You missed that one didn't you?

 

Wait'll you get the bill for doing your homework for you.

Andre

 

[Paul3]

Shilshole,
Dang, that was fast.  If I had known you were OvC and on this forum, I would have totally credited you for one of the funniest things said on r.m.r in a long, long time.    That (tm) after JB'sTPtMRE(tm) is registered to OvC/Shilshole, folks...it's not my line.  Hey, remember when John B. said he'd never return to the MR Forum because of all the newbies here?  I guess that didn't last long.

Dave V.,
Priceless!  How about this one: "I said, 'Give me DCC or Death,' not 'Death with DCC!'"


Andre,
Okay, that's makes sense.  If you're getting fun from it, by all means carry on! 

BTW, can I guess the response you'll get?  John will say, "You can't use CPI as a price index because trains are a luxury item."  And, "You can't use the improvements to the model in accuracy or detail to justify higher prices because it's only natural that quality will improve over the years."  Am I close?

Paul A. Cutler III
************
If that's your thing, I certainly have no gripe -
enjoy the hobby any way that is good for you! 
by JBortle, 1999 
************

[andrechapelon]

BTW, can I guess the response you'll get?  John will say, "You can't use CPI as a price index because trains are a luxury item."  And, "You can't use the improvements to the model in accuracy or detail to justify higher prices because it's only natural that quality will improve over the years."  Am I close?

Yep, and you have an uncanny ability to state the glaringly obvious. . 'Course, what he neglects is the fact that the CPI is the only yardstick we can use, Besides they were luxury items then and they're still luxury items, so that remains constant.

'Course things are still way overpriced (objections will be raised to the competitive pricing thread I started, said objections being totally without merit, of course). I shouldn't have started that thread as it became rapidly obvious that there are some screaming bargains out there and I have a wad of cash burning a hole in my pocket. Fortunately, none of these things are appropriate for SP's Monterey Branch circa 1950, so the money's staying in the wallet. Still.........

 

Andre

 

 

[selector]

Does CPI have any relevance to the Market and its self-regulatory pricing if it is a free one?  And is the luxury items market not such a market?  Seems clear to me.  Then, I am not an economist and should perhaps keep to my metier.

[Midnight Railroader]

It appears to me that this topic has gotten slightly off topic. Instead of attacking one another why don't we stick to the history of the hobby? I find the history of the manufactures just as intriguing as the researching the history of my favorite prototype railroads.

Apparently, not as much fun as attacking each other.

Or, for some good ol' jingoistic fighting, try the "Sneaky Kalmbach" thread.

[BRAKIE]

I saw your post..and noted that you did not quote the prices...intentionally.

Try posting the total cost of each seller to your door and show us how it is competitive...it isn't.

My point exactly...and the one that you are trying to avoid addressing.

TMT

http://www.whistle-stop.com/2007/10/polar-express-disappearing-hobo-car.html

$48.99 for the car. $10 for shipping. Total $58.99 vs. MSRP of 64.99.

You missed that one didn't you?

 

Wait'll you get the bill for doing your homework for you.

Andre

 

Andre,To a guy that buys 98% of his stuff off line your argument don't hold water unless you do in fact order 1 item.

The secrete is to order enough items to cover the shipping.

As a prime example.

From TTH.

Athearn GP40-2 MSRP $69.98 Discount $46.89

Here's the real deal.

2 @ 69.98 from the local shop = $139.96 plus tax

2 from TTH @ $46.89 =93.78

Shipping $8.95

Total $102.73

A savings of $37.23

Now with that savings I can add 2 RTR Athearn OR 2 Atlas  cars OR a 20 pack of KD couplers.Same shipping.

See how it works?

 

[andrechapelon]

I saw your post..and noted that you did not quote the prices...intentionally.

Try posting the total cost of each seller to your door and show us how it is competitive...it isn't.

My point exactly...and the one that you are trying to avoid addressing.

TMT

http://www.whistle-stop.com/2007/10/polar-express-disappearing-hobo-car.html

$48.99 for the car. $10 for shipping. Total $58.99 vs. MSRP of 64.99.

You missed that one didn't you?

 

Wait'll you get the bill for doing your homework for you.

Andre

 

Andre,To a guy that buys 98% of his stuff off line your argument don't hold water unless you do in fact order 1 item.

The secrete is to order enough items to cover the shipping.

As a prime example.

From TTH.

Athearn GP40-2 MSRP $69.98 Discount $46.89

Here's the real deal.

2 @ 69.98 from the local shop = $139.96 plus tax

2 from TTH @ $46.89 =93.78

Shipping $8.95

Total $102.73

A savings of $37.23

Now with that savings I can add 2 RTR Athearn OR 2 Atlas  cars OR a 20 pack of KD couplers.Same shipping.

See how it works?

Yeah, I do, but I was respoinding to someone who was only looking for one item.

In any case, in another thread, using a single item order for various products, I demonstrated it was possible to have said item delivered to your door at a considerable saving.

Andre

[Dave Vollmer]

[modelmaker51]

Thought I'd add one more to the original topic: Bachmann bought Weaver (0 scale). The original owner is retiring.

They bought Williams, not Weaver. Weaver is still independent.

Andre

 

Sorry, that's what I meant! my bad.

[ho modern modeler]

I think they're doing the same thing as the real Railroads-just in a smaller scale