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The demise of model railroading………… Locked

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Posted by Midnight Railroader on Saturday, December 8, 2007 8:31 AM
 jfugate wrote:
But then if you go online and google "Model trains sales comeback" you get links to news that hobby sales have grown up to 40% in the last two years.

The article that comes up when one does this suggests that Lionel's sale increase means the hobby is "coming back."

"Now, the company [Lionel] is bringing trains back to young people, and sales are up 40 percent in the last two years," the story says.

If we're going to base our judgment of the health of the hobby on the health of one manufacturer, then every time one goes out of business, we're in trouble, right?

I still haven't seen a story that says "hobby sales have grown up to 40% in the last two years," as you suggest.

And if you buy this whole line of reasoning, then weren't all those people who argued "two or three years ago"--as several of you love to point out--that the hobby wasn't in decline wrong about that? After all, something would have to have been in decline to be resurgent, right?

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Posted by Midnight Railroader on Saturday, December 8, 2007 8:21 AM
 Shilshole wrote:
Except, of course, for the quote of 'resurgence' by the managing editor of some obscure scale model railroading magazine:

Dick Christianson, managing editor of Model Railroader magazine, said the resurgence in trains would probably start up a whole new, younger generation of model railroaders.
"One day they'll remember they had a train as a kid and say, 'Hey, I wonder if Mom has that in her attic somewhere'," he said.

Okay.

He says he hopes the resurgence in tinplate train sales will have an effect on younger people and whether they get into scale model railroading.

So do I.

 

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Posted by CNJ831 on Saturday, December 8, 2007 5:17 AM
 jfugate wrote:

So if I post a data point that doesn't agree with your opinion now I'm being sneaky and underhanded am I?

I seem to recall one somewhat questionable strategy in a debate is when you can't refute some hard data you then revert to personal attacks.

Too bad it's come to this ... you'd think we were talking about politics or religion instead of some hobby pastime.

I'm sorry too, Joe, but you presented your post as fact of a resurgence in our hobby, when in reality the Reuters story clearly pertained to just one tinplate manufacturer and had nothing to do with scale model railroading's situation. You are an accomplished hobbyist and obviously no fool when it comes to assessing the meaning and presentation of things, so totally mistaking the content/meaning of that press release seems a bit hard to accept.

I have never and will never post any information here that I can not back up with some sort of published data. If others would do the same, whatever the subject might be, hobbyists here would not be continuously misinformed and in this instance there would be little question as to the state of the hobby and how it will likely evolve in the future.

CNJ831    

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Posted by CNJ831 on Saturday, December 8, 2007 5:00 AM
 Shilshole wrote:
 CNJ831 wrote:
 jfugate wrote:

Go back 2-3 years on this forum and you will find the same arguments and discussions going on about the hobby's future. That's not changed.

But then if you go online and google "Model trains sales comeback" you get links to news that hobby sales have grown up to 40% in the last two years.

If we're all so smart with our crystal balls, why didn't the posts 3 years ago from the so-called hobby history experts predict this turn of events?

Now how about passing on to posters what the real content of that Reuters article was, Joe?

In fact, it dealt specifically with a comeback for tinplate reported by Lionel, who has had a dismal sales record to the general public in recent years. There is no mention of scale model railroading in the story, nor any claim whatever of any resurgence therein.

Except, of course, for the quote of 'resurgence' by the managing editor of some obscure scale model railroading magazine:

Dick Christianson, managing editor of Model Railroader magazine, said the resurgence in trains would probably start up a whole new, younger generation of model railroaders.
"One day they'll remember they had a train as a kid and say, 'Hey, I wonder if Mom has that in her attic somewhere'," he said.

I don't need any crystal ball to tell that the content of this news release indicates nothing that can be regarded as particularly promising, let alone reflecting some great boom in the hobby's popularity. Quite honestly, I find it unfortunate and disappointing that you would attempt to mislead readers here that somehow it did.

Just in case you missed it:

Dick Christianson, managing editor of Model Railroader magazine, said the resurgence in trains would probably start up a whole new, younger generation of model railroaders.
"One day they'll remember they had a train as a kid and say, 'Hey, I wonder if Mom has that in her attic somewhere'," he said.

HTH.  HAND. 

I'm afraid that is called an opinion regarding a possible future development...not evidence of a current resurgence. 

CNJ831

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Posted by andrechapelon on Saturday, December 8, 2007 1:44 AM
 BlueHillsCPR wrote:

Sheesh...a number of hard core modellers could have passed on, the hobby could have had a resurgence or it could have vanished forever...all within the time it has taken to build up this agonizingly long and pointless thread. Laugh [(-D]

Don't you folks have anything better to talk aboutQuestion [?]

Actually, I'm retired, my wife and I are trying to get our new house together and in a short while, we'll be working on sprucing up the old place as a rental. All my model railroad stuff is packed up so it's going to be a while before I can get back to it and go onto something more productive. Despite the work involved in the move, I have occasional moments to engage in activities that might seem unproductive to the uninitiated. OK, so they ARE unproductive. I'm retired. I don't need to be productive all the time.

And you? If it's it's agonizingly long and pointless, why contribute(?) to it in the first place.

I'm kinda enjoying this agonizingly long and pointless thread, so no, at the moment I have nothing better to talk about. Smile,Wink, & Grin [swg] I'll let the others speak for themselves as to why they are similarly engaged.

NOTE to CNJ re: the supply of 59 year old men (give or take) who are presumably the very rock upon which the hobby stands. From the demographic data I have at my disposal, the supply of 59 year old men (presumably the average age of modelers) will actually continue to increase between now and 2016 and will remain relatively stable until 2022, when it will begin falling. However, it won't go to zero (barring a killer asteroid or something like that).

Incidentally, some of us old guys like to share our love of trains with our grandkids and are buying trains for them and not just for ourselves. Now that may not convert those grandkids to model railroaders, but it's still better to light one candle than to curse the darkness. 

I should give it up as it won't do any good, but to quote George Patton (or at least George C. Scott playing Patton), "God forgive, me I love it so".

TTFN

Andre

It's really kind of hard to support your local hobby shop when the nearest hobby shop that's worth the name is a 150 mile roundtrip.
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Posted by tomikawaTT on Friday, December 7, 2007 10:27 PM
 Dave Vollmer wrote:

 IRONROOSTER wrote:

Ahhhh, I see by your question that you are a newcomer - welcome.

Be sure to tune in next month when we go this again - same folks, same arguments, same anectodal evidence, same conclusions.  

In this rapidly changing world it's comforting to know that here is one rock we can all cling to that never changes. 

Laugh [(-D]

Enjoy

Paul 

Amen, brother!!!

Paul, Dave and any other adult present -

Let's all duck over to the Barn and have a brew.  Let the children of all ages argue among themselves.

Beware of insisting on the last word.  You may get it.

Chuck (modeling Central Japan in September, 1964 - no matter what)

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Posted by Dave Vollmer on Friday, December 7, 2007 9:00 PM

 IRONROOSTER wrote:

Ahhhh, I see by your question that you are a newcomer - welcome.

Be sure to tune in next month when we go this again - same folks, same arguments, same anectodal evidence, same conclusions.  

In this rapidly changing world it's comforting to know that here is one rock we can all cling to that never changes. 

Laugh [(-D]

Enjoy

Paul 

Amen, brother!!!

Modeling the Rio Grande Southern First District circa 1938-1946 in HOn3.

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Posted by BlueHillsCPR on Friday, December 7, 2007 8:47 PM
 IRONROOSTER wrote:
Ahhhh, I see by your question that you are a newcomer - welcome.

Be sure to tune in next month when we go this again - same folks, same arguments, same anectodal evidence, same conclusions.  

In this rapidly changing world it's comforting to know that here is one rock we can all cling to that never changes. 

Laugh [(-D]

Enjoy

Paul 

 

HAHAHA!  Thanks for that Paul.  The most entertaining and informative post I've read in this thread so far! Laugh [(-D]

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Posted by IRONROOSTER on Friday, December 7, 2007 7:55 PM
 BlueHillsCPR wrote:

Sheesh...a number of hard core modellers could have passed on, the hobby could have had a resurgence or it could have vanished forever...all within the time it has taken to build up this agonizingly long and pointless thread. Laugh [(-D]

Don't you folks have anything better to talk aboutQuestion [?]

Ahhhh, I see by your question that you are a newcomer - welcome.

Be sure to tune in next month when we go this again - same folks, same arguments, same anectodal evidence, same conclusions.  

In this rapidly changing world it's comforting to know that here is one rock we can all cling to that never changes. 

Laugh [(-D]

Enjoy

Paul 

If you're having fun, you're doing it the right way.
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Posted by Shilshole on Friday, December 7, 2007 7:32 PM
 CNJ831 wrote:
 jfugate wrote:

Go back 2-3 years on this forum and you will find the same arguments and discussions going on about the hobby's future. That's not changed.

But then if you go online and google "Model trains sales comeback" you get links to news that hobby sales have grown up to 40% in the last two years.

If we're all so smart with our crystal balls, why didn't the posts 3 years ago from the so-called hobby history experts predict this turn of events?

Now how about passing on to posters what the real content of that Reuters article was, Joe?

In fact, it dealt specifically with a comeback for tinplate reported by Lionel, who has had a dismal sales record to the general public in recent years. There is no mention of scale model railroading in the story, nor any claim whatever of any resurgence therein.

Except, of course, for the quote of 'resurgence' by the managing editor of some obscure scale model railroading magazine:

Dick Christianson, managing editor of Model Railroader magazine, said the resurgence in trains would probably start up a whole new, younger generation of model railroaders.
"One day they'll remember they had a train as a kid and say, 'Hey, I wonder if Mom has that in her attic somewhere'," he said.

I don't need any crystal ball to tell that the content of this news release indicates nothing that can be regarded as particularly promising, let alone reflecting some great boom in the hobby's popularity. Quite honestly, I find it unfortunate and disappointing that you would attempt to mislead readers here that somehow it did.

Just in case you missed it:

Dick Christianson, managing editor of Model Railroader magazine, said the resurgence in trains would probably start up a whole new, younger generation of model railroaders.
"One day they'll remember they had a train as a kid and say, 'Hey, I wonder if Mom has that in her attic somewhere'," he said.

HTH.  HAND. 

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Posted by jfugate on Friday, December 7, 2007 7:31 PM
 CNJ831 wrote:
I don't need any crystal ball to tell that the content of this news release indicates nothing that can be regarded as particularly promising, let alone reflecting some great boom in the hobby's popularity. Quite honestly, I find it unfortunate and disappointing that you would attempt to mislead readers here that somehow it did.

CNJ831 

So if I post a data point that doesn't agree with your opinion now I'm being sneaky and underhanded am I?

I seem to recall one somewhat questionable strategy in a debate is when you can't refute some hard data you then revert to personal attacks.

Too bad it's come to this ... you'd think we were talking about politics or religion instead of some hobby pastime.

Joe Fugate Modeling the 1980s SP Siskiyou Line in southern Oregon

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Posted by BlueHillsCPR on Friday, December 7, 2007 6:13 PM

Sheesh...a number of hard core modellers could have passed on, the hobby could have had a resurgence or it could have vanished forever...all within the time it has taken to build up this agonizingly long and pointless thread. Laugh [(-D]

Don't you folks have anything better to talk aboutQuestion [?]

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Posted by CNJ831 on Friday, December 7, 2007 6:00 PM
 jfugate wrote:

Go back 2-3 years on this forum and you will find the same arguments and discussions going on about the hobby's future. That's not changed.

But then if you go online and google "Model trains sales comeback" you get links to news that hobby sales have grown up to 40% in the last two years.

If we're all so smart with our crystal balls, why didn't the posts 3 years ago from the so-called hobby history experts predict this turn of events?

Now how about passing on to posters what the real content of that Reuters article was, Joe?

In fact, it dealt specifically with a comeback for tinplate reported by Lionel, who has had a dismal sales record to the general public in recent years. There is no mention of scale model railroading in the story, nor any claim whatever of any resurgence therein. 

The story goes on to point out, and those interviewed acknowledge, the rapidly increasing age of those who are purchasing "model trains." The figure provided by Kelly Shaw of Kalmbach's Classic Toy Trains, at the time the story was written, averaging 59 years (and essentially what MR's many years of published figures implied for current scale modelers). The implication here is that the "model train" hobby is composed today largely of post-middle age men and very few youths. 

I don't need any crystal ball to tell that the content of this news release indicates nothing that can be regarded as particularly promising, let alone reflecting some great boom in the hobby's popularity. Quite honestly, I find it unfortunate and disappointing that you would attempt to mislead readers here that somehow it did.

CNJ831 

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Posted by andrechapelon on Friday, December 7, 2007 5:01 PM
 Midnight Railroader wrote:
 andrechapelon wrote:

But where's the evidence that those kids continue to stay with the hobby when they grow out of the Thomas age?

Well, build me a time machine and I'll go forward 30-40 years into the future and find out for you. It's the only way to find out if the hobby will still be alive and kicking.

We don't need that. As has been pointed out, Thomas has been around for decades already but has had a very small impact on the number of scale model railroaders he's recruited, at least in the US.

You seem to think that Thomas has been a phenomenon ever since the publication of Rev. Awdry's books. This hasn't been the case, not even in the UK where the whole thing started.  I didn't hear about Awdry until I was in my teens (1960's) and then only because I picked up a couple of British model railway magazines that had somehow made it to a newstand in my area. The popularity of Thomas has grown over the last 60 years from a number of stories by the Rev. Awdry until it's almost an industry unto itself. It's not just books anymore for (as CNJ puts it) pre-school kids. Several major manufacturers make Thomas sets including Bachmann, Hornby and Lionel. Being full fledged electric trains, these are not really designed for the pre-school set, although indulgent parents (not to mention grandparents) will sometimes buy these sets with the excuse they are for their pre-school kids/grandkids.  Thomas is a relatively recent phenomenon (last 15 years or so) in the US and we haven't yet had the time to see how things pan out.  As Mark Newton pointed out, where Thomas has been around longer than here, a number of modelers have cited Thomas as one of the reasons they got into the hobby.

I don't know if my grandkids' experience with Thomas coupled with Grandpa's love of trains will translate into future model railroaders. What I am pretty sure of is that the probability dimishes quite a bit without some encouragement from me and fond memories of that funny old man who just loved trains. Whether or not the hobby dies, I think it's rather more productive to play trains with the grandkids than wail, gnash my teeth and wear a hair shirt because "the hobby is doomed, doomed I say".

"In the long run, we're all dead" - John Maynard Keynes

"Who cares? There are trains to be played with until that happens" - Yours Truly

Andre

It's really kind of hard to support your local hobby shop when the nearest hobby shop that's worth the name is a 150 mile roundtrip.
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Posted by jfugate on Friday, December 7, 2007 1:47 PM

Go back 2-3 years on this forum and you will find the same arguments and discussions going on about the hobby's future. That's not changed.

But then if you go online and google "Model trains sales comeback" you get links to news that hobby sales have grown up to 40% in the last two years.

If we're all so smart with our crystal balls, why didn't the posts 3 years ago from the so-called hobby history experts predict this turn of events?

So much for our crystal ball gazing about the future of the hobby. Truth is its future will have ebb and flows, but overall I believe we can say the hobby has a long future ahead of it in some form -- like WWII vehicles, these railroad machines are just too interesting to totally disappear from the hobby landscape, especially when the model trains *do stuff*. Smile,Wink, & Grin [swg]

Joe Fugate Modeling the 1980s SP Siskiyou Line in southern Oregon

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Posted by Phoebe Vet on Friday, December 7, 2007 10:27 AM
I know my grandchildren love train shows.

Dave

Lackawanna Route of the Phoebe Snow

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Posted by loathar on Friday, December 7, 2007 10:22 AM
 Phoebe Vet wrote:

Does anyone in here actually care how many other people share their hobby?

Kind of. The more people in the hobby will keep companies alive and hopefully drive the production of new items and lines and help keep prices low. Plus it's nice to have a large group of like minded people to share ideas with. 

I've only been to a couple train shows, but I saw no lack of young people getting started in the hobby. I was really surprised to see the amount of women and young girls taking an interest.

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Posted by BRAKIE on Friday, December 7, 2007 9:22 AM

CNJ831,As far as Thomas and Friends/Shining Time Station our local PBS station doesn't air it and hasn't for quite some time. Some department stores no longer carry the Thomas toys.

IMHO I don't think Thomas or even the Hogwarts Express will have a lasting impact unless the child develops a interest in the hobby while enjoying the hours spent playing with those trains.

 

Larry

Conductor.

Summerset Ry.


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Posted by MidlandPacific on Friday, December 7, 2007 9:14 AM
 marknewton wrote:
 andrechapelon wrote:

From what our pal CNJ writes, one gets the impression that Thomas emerged full blown as a phenomenon back in the late 80's/early 90's and has remained steady state ever since. That's not the case. It started relatively small and grew larger year by year until you can't go into any store that carries toys without finding Thomas in some form. We're not talking flash-in-the-pan fads like Cabbage Patch Kids, either. Thomas has demonstrated a staying power that other toys can only wish for.


For a bloke that presents himself as the forum's official historian, CNJ displays an astonishing ignorance of Thomas, and his influence on modellers. As I've pointed out to him before, the Thomas books were first published in the UK just after WW2 , and some of the best known and talented modellers there, and in Australia, have readily acknowledged that they were inspired and influenced by the Thomas books they read as children. But he's strangely silent on this - apparently only those Golden Age Craftsmen who got Lionel trains for Xmas are worth considering.

All the best,

Mark.

 

Not only in Australia, Mark - I saw my first Thomas book in the mid-1970s; some of the tourist railroads here in the States sold them in gift shops.  I still have seven or eight, and one of my neighbors had the entire collection - and this was years before the TV show appeared.  It wasn't the phenomenon it is now, but the books were definitely around. 

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Posted by BRAKIE on Friday, December 7, 2007 9:05 AM
 Midnight Railroader wrote:
 andrechapelon wrote:

But where's the evidence that those kids continue to stay with the hobby when they grow out of the Thomas age?

Well, build me a time machine and I'll go forward 30-40 years into the future and find out for you. It's the only way to find out if the hobby will still be alive and kicking.

We don't need that. As has been pointed out, Thomas has been around for decades already but has had a very small impact on the number of scale model railroaders he's recruited, at least in the US.

Very true..How many kids had trains and as Adults they are no longer interested in "toy trains" but,will enjoy golf,fishing,restoring cars,hiking,coin collecting,stamp collecting,photography bicycling etc etc..After all these are "adult hobbies".

Of course comments like "relive your childhood dreams" doesn't help the image of modelers in general when there are some that think we are immature adults playing with "toy trains".

OTOH there are those that enjoy looking at "toy train setups" and ask many questions.I have also notice during the week of the County fair-the Bucyrus club is located at the fair grounds open for the week-many use "model trains and your layout" rather then "toy train set or toy train set up and many adults and kids made return trips to view the layout.

What does that mean in reality? More then likely nothing more then a passing interest or questions along with the normal pleasantries.

 

 

 

Larry

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Posted by CNJ831 on Friday, December 7, 2007 9:02 AM
 marknewton wrote:
 andrechapelon wrote:

From what our pal CNJ writes, one gets the impression that Thomas emerged full blown as a phenomenon back in the late 80's/early 90's and has remained steady state ever since. That's not the case. It started relatively small and grew larger year by year until you can't go into any store that carries toys without finding Thomas in some form. We're not talking flash-in-the-pan fads like Cabbage Patch Kids, either. Thomas has demonstrated a staying power that other toys can only wish for.


For a bloke that presents himself as the forum's official historian, CNJ displays an astonishing ignorance of Thomas, and his influence on modellers. As I've pointed out to him before, the Thomas books were first published in the UK just after WW2 , and some of the best known and talented modellers there, and in Australia, have readily acknowledged that they were inspired and influenced by the Thomas books they read as children. But he's strangely silent on this - apparently only those Golden Age Craftsmen who got Lionel trains for Xmas are worth considering.

Quite to the contrary, Mark. I'm very much familiar with the Rev. Awdry's Railway series of books and stories. But I'm also well aware, as you apparently are not, that Awdry and Thomas were largely unknown in the United States until the appearance of Shining Time Station on PBS 20 years ago. As I've reminded you before, this is 99% an American hobbyists' forum and what goes on, or went on in the hobby, or influences it in foreign lands, is generally not applicable or relevant to the hobby's evolution over here. To date, I've seen no one able to provide even the least shred of evidence that Thomas serves as an influence to becoming a model railroader over here. It's always baseless opinion that is put forward.

In the States, lots of kids read The Little Engine That Could or Tootles The Train (or had it read to them) as small children, more-or-less in place of Awdry's books, but there is certainly nothing to suggest that it led any of them into taking up model railroading in their later years. Certainly, I've never heard it claimed.

My point regarding Thomas has always been that the American audience it appeals to is largely pre-school children who, in my day, played with such as TinkerToys....and who did not grow up to have structural engineering as a hobby, by the way! Potential model railroaders over here have, historically, almost always come from older pre-teens and teens that had classic Lionel, Flyer, Marx, et al. - even Tyco HO - of their own, or in the families' background. In the majority of cases this interest was carried well into their teen years before going "underground" for a time, only to re-surface once they became established adults. Now I realize this isn't everyone's background but I'd bet it was the formative and deciding element in about 80% of the instances for those over 45 years of age. 

Today those same pre-teens that would have played with the classic tinplate train sets in years past are playing with video games, or spending hours on-line with their friends. The pre-schoolers move right into this same venue quickly as they age and never seem to look back. I'd say that the odds are if they do look back upon Thomas in their adult years it will be as nothing more than a young child's toy and certainly not as the inspiration for an adult hobby interest.

Some here have expressed in posts that playing with Lionel as teens often brought with it a certain sigma back in 70's or 80's. I would suggest that Thomas could prove a far worse stigma for younger hobbyists to bear in the future.

CNJ831   

 

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Posted by Midnight Railroader on Friday, December 7, 2007 6:34 AM
 andrechapelon wrote:

But where's the evidence that those kids continue to stay with the hobby when they grow out of the Thomas age?

Well, build me a time machine and I'll go forward 30-40 years into the future and find out for you. It's the only way to find out if the hobby will still be alive and kicking.

We don't need that. As has been pointed out, Thomas has been around for decades already but has had a very small impact on the number of scale model railroaders he's recruited, at least in the US.

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Posted by GTX765 on Friday, December 7, 2007 2:11 AM

Here are my reasons why I believe that there is no demise to model railroading

1. Tyco trains, I had one that I ran for over 7 years with no issues. Mine was the yellow and red Rock Island. Remember the cool Tyco TV commercials?

2. As long as there are new customers (like me) then there will be people to sell it. Capitalism at its best.

3. DCC and sound. I would not have gotten into the hobby again until one day I got a wild hairMischief [:-,]......and walked into a train store in Lincoln NE. I saw an O scale lionel making sounds and being controlled with a DCC remote.

4. Thomas the Train, people are fighting over this stuff to buy for their kids. So when their kids are a little older what we be the next step? Hmmm maybe a trip to the LHS?

5. Us in general.  I have had two friends seen my small first time layout and they have already annouced they will be starting railroad modeling right after tax season.

6 On Ebay under toys and hobbies, Model railroading is one of the largest subcategories.

This is just my My 2 cents [2c] from the great plains of the noobCowboy [C):-)]

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Posted by andrechapelon on Thursday, December 6, 2007 9:08 PM
 marknewton wrote:
 andrechapelon wrote:

From what our pal CNJ writes, one gets the impression that Thomas emerged full blown as a phenomenon back in the late 80's/early 90's and has remained steady state ever since. That's not the case. It started relatively small and grew larger year by year until you can't go into any store that carries toys without finding Thomas in some form. We're not talking flash-in-the-pan fads like Cabbage Patch Kids, either. Thomas has demonstrated a staying power that other toys can only wish for.


For a bloke that presents himself as the forum's official historian, CNJ displays an astonishing ignorance of Thomas, and his influence on modellers. As I've pointed out to him before, the Thomas books were first published in the UK just after WW2 , and some of the best known and talented modellers there, and in Australia, have readily acknowledged that they were inspired and influenced by the Thomas books they read as children. But he's strangely silent on this - apparently only those Golden Age Craftsmen who got Lionel trains for Xmas are worth considering.

All the best,

Mark.

Well, Thomas did start outside the boundaries of North America, so it is suspect on that basis alone. Smile,Wink, & Grin [swg] . My wife and I were in a COSTCO (big box warehouse store, don't know if any are in Australia yet) and there was a rather large display of Thomas books for sale, including all of Awdry's original stories in a single collection. Most people who might buy that collection probably wouldn't have a clue as to who Awdry was but would buy the collection based solely on the fact that they were Thomas stories. I wanted to buy the collection to read to my grandchildren, but my wife threatened me with grievious bodily harm since we had already bought quite a bit of Thomas related stuff. Oh well, I'll just have to go shopping by myself. The thing that strikes me about this is that COSTCO is a high volume retailer. If the powers that be aren't reasonably confident an item will sell, it won't go on COSTCO shelves.

Personally, I'm rather pleased that Thomas has become the phenomenon he has here in North America. Unfortunately, we haven't had someone like Rev. Awdry to do for us what he did for the UK, Australia, New Zealand, et. al.

Just as an aside, last night I watched "The Titfield Thunderbolt". I just recently bought the DVD because I wanted to see if I would react the same way I did when I first saw the movie (about 1960 or so). I can't say as I reacted the same way as I did when I was a teen, but I still enjoyed the movie thoroughly. I still think the funniest scene is where Stanley Holloway and Hugh Griffith steal another ex-GWR 14xx off the turntable and run it through town, across a highway and into a tree. The movie may be a bit of fluff, but it's a thoroughly enjoyable one. I plan to watch it again with the grandkids.

Andre

Hmm, a quick search of the net revealed that COSTCO is going to start building stores in Australia. http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/costco-megastores-may-be-heading-for-australia/2007/06/01/1180205497420.html

It's really kind of hard to support your local hobby shop when the nearest hobby shop that's worth the name is a 150 mile roundtrip.
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Posted by Anonymous on Thursday, December 6, 2007 8:18 PM

Does anybody besides me find it highly amusing that the guy who is taking shots on train set quaility was the same guy responsible for the New One line of Aristocraft die cast locomotives?

  And I know whereof what I speak...My first HO "scale" (??!!) locomotive was an Aristocraft 2-8-0.  Ah the thrill of out of round drivers, missing parts, no quaility motors, christmas sticker type lettering!  Compared to those engines, Tyco was a Cadillac, and AHM a BMW.

And in spite of it all, I'm still a model railroader and rather enjoyed the entire experience.  I think some people just like trains, and the hobby will be with us for some time.  I'd bet there are the same number of scratchbuilders and craftsman kit builders out there as there were in the 50s.  There's also a lot of guys who have great layouts thanks to todays high quaility RTR stuff who would at best have been armchair modelers back then.

Model railroading will survive, tho in a different form than in the days of the Christmas train set.  Afterall we were supposed to die from TV, or was it slotcars?  We seem to be dealing with computers rather well.  Pretty lively corpse I'd say from the discussion on this board.

JBB

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Posted by marknewton on Thursday, December 6, 2007 7:51 PM
 andrechapelon wrote:

And if the numbers are dropping, why is that there is more stuff available than at any other time in history with more on the way? The manufacturers must lack any business sense whatsoever to be investing in new tooling when their market is shrinking as we speak.


Ah, but that "stuff" is just RTR - no self-respecting Golden Age Craftsman would stoop to buy it, would they? Evil [}:)]

Cheers,

Mark.
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Posted by marknewton on Thursday, December 6, 2007 7:45 PM
 andrechapelon wrote:

From what our pal CNJ writes, one gets the impression that Thomas emerged full blown as a phenomenon back in the late 80's/early 90's and has remained steady state ever since. That's not the case. It started relatively small and grew larger year by year until you can't go into any store that carries toys without finding Thomas in some form. We're not talking flash-in-the-pan fads like Cabbage Patch Kids, either. Thomas has demonstrated a staying power that other toys can only wish for.


For a bloke that presents himself as the forum's official historian, CNJ displays an astonishing ignorance of Thomas, and his influence on modellers. As I've pointed out to him before, the Thomas books were first published in the UK just after WW2 , and some of the best known and talented modellers there, and in Australia, have readily acknowledged that they were inspired and influenced by the Thomas books they read as children. But he's strangely silent on this - apparently only those Golden Age Craftsmen who got Lionel trains for Xmas are worth considering.

All the best,

Mark.
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Posted by andrechapelon on Thursday, December 6, 2007 7:05 PM

If you ask the question - why do people get involved in model trains, then the answer to the prophets of doom is that our hobby will always be around.

I don't think you understand the prophets of doom. They aren't happy unless they're convinced everything is going to Hades in a handbasket. There are several variants to this as follows:

1. The hobby is dying. Reminding the POD's that this has been forecast since before you reached your teen years (in the 50's) doesn't matter. It actually doesn't matter to the POD's whether or not the hobby actually dies as long as they can suck energy out of everyone else.

2. The hobby is overpriced. It doesn't matter that the hobby has always been "overpriced", the POD's are outraged that it's "overpriced" now and something should be done about it. None of the suggestions for fixes are workable because none of these guys understand the economics of a restricted market, which is probably just as well. If there wasn't the outrage, the POD's of this variant would have to find something else about which to be outraged.

3. Craftsmanship is dead. Apparently the craftsmanship that goes into making the tooling for a highly detailed ready to run model is not considered craftsmanship. Counter-examples won't sway them. The work of such people as Lance Mindheim, Eric Brooman, Tom Johnson (GMR 2008), Allen McClelland, our own Dave Vollmer and Doctorwayne is ignored. I don't know why. It seems to me that if you can create an overall effect that bears a striking resemblance to the real world then that's craftsmanship. No doubt there are some painters out there who long for the "golden age" when painters had to grind their own pigments to make their own paint (i.e. "scratchbuild").

There may be more, but these seem to be the Holy Trinity for the POD.

Me, I like to refer to them as "The Three Faces Of Peeve"

Andre

 

 

It's really kind of hard to support your local hobby shop when the nearest hobby shop that's worth the name is a 150 mile roundtrip.
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Posted by Autobus Prime on Thursday, December 6, 2007 6:26 PM
 vsmith wrote:

I agree with you, I never said the stuff wasnt popular, then or now, even that crappy looking old wood tru-scale stuff, I knew a guy whos whole layout was that stuff. I just chose not to use it myself (too poor) Wink [;)]

THAT is the true danger of RTR, the numbing conformity of complacency, of same trains, of same structures, what next, is someone going to market RTR layouts straight out of the box?

Now I'm old enough to have grown up reading about the older generation who virtually carved their HO trains out of styrene, and scratchbuilt almost everything they had. I have tremendous admiration for layouts like the Gorre & Dephitid or the Crooked Mountain Lines, from them I learned to carve the styrene RTRs into kitbashes, cut my fingers a lot but I did learn...I guess I just find that resistance to trying to learn hardest to accept in some (not all) model railroaders today, regardless of what scale they run,  they just "want it now".

vs:

No, I knew you weren't saying the prefab track wasn't popular.  You were saying it was sort of ugly.  I can agree with that.  I was just trying to say it wasn't a new thing.  I think when Tru-Scale went out, it left a track-shaped hole in the available product range, until the plastic-roadbed stuff came in.

You also make a good point regarding sameness.  This also happens with kits.  The great thing about that is that it tends to self-limit. Sooner or later somebody gets tired of the same damned Walthers/Suydam/Plasticville on every damned layout and decides to do some customizing.

The old-timers did that a lot, as you have noted. 

I think what keeps people from doing more is that people want their first attempt to turn out perfectly, and if it doesn't, they give up and decide they can't learn.  Well, not that way, you can't. 

 Currently president of: a slowly upgrading trainset fleet o'doom.
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Posted by Blood Stained Angel on Thursday, December 6, 2007 6:20 PM

If you ask the question - why do people get involved in model trains, then the answer to the prophets of doom is that our hobby will always be around.

IMO, the main reasons why people start in this hobby are a love of trains, a love of creation or both. This is why you see layouts where the trains dominate and others where the trains only seem to serve to animate a static model display. The former group are the ones who fall for the hobby as kids, maybe drop it for wine, women and song but return once their life is settled. The latter group are the ones who take the hobby up from scratch at a later time in life.

Numbers will rise and fall, but there will always be a percentage of the population with the mindset and the time to take up the hobby.

Escalating costs are down to volume and the demand for models of higher standards. The costs do not stop determined and committed modellers from shelling out the bucks or getting creative. Down here we pay the best part of $700 for a BLI standard loco with DCC and sound. Make that over $900 for a garret. If our loco of choice is not available RTR, then a whitemetal and brass kit (2 months of spare time to assemble and paint) will come in between $350 and $550.  We are just happy to have models of our favourite Aussie locos available.

The high cost here probably explains why the vast majority of Aussie modellers are trains fans first and foremost. The high costs of the models push the creative types into some other persuit. 

Cheers, Ian from Oz.

ps: Multiply those numbers by 0.9 for US dollars.

You reap what you sow.

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