Without trying to sound down right cold, I must say that in spite of the often seen claim that Thomas will have some sort of major future impact on the number of scale modelers, I fail to see any demonstrable tie-in whatever.
The great majority of those of us in the hobby today were influenced toward that end by having semi-realistic looking electric trains (Lionel, Flyer, Marx) as young boys at perhaps ages 6 to 14. There was also the undercurrent of being in control of what in the real world were huge and powerful machines...we were playing adult. Further, many of us saw the prototype in daily action and even rode on real trains to one extent or another far more often than today.
Now try to look objectively at Thomas. Thomas' appeal is to the pre-K child. In most cases it is largely a European-styled wooden push toy. It is based on a mythical, essentially TV cartoon character, that in no way resembles any American locomotive nor conveys any air of reality (do trains really converse and have eyes, noses and mouths?). Even a ride behind a 1:1 scale version of Thomas is likely to occur no more than a few times in a very young child's life and can not realistically be considered an important, life long influencing event. It's like claiming that playing with Sponge Bob or Nemo figures as a child will result in a fascination with saltwater aquariums as an adult.
The concept of Thomas as a major influence and source of future scale model railroaders is just totally unsubstantiated speculation and I would challenge anyone to show factual evidence of an actual major association between it and scale model railroading. In reality, I'm afraid, we are simply seeing such situations and associations through highly biased eyes, perceiving important relationships where none exist simply because of our own personal interests.
Now WGH, that's quite something else and if you take the time to carefully read the points of its manifesto, you'll appreciate that it is a well thought out and calculating plan to generate interest and hopefully increase hobby sales.
CNJ831
Which has had the larger and more positive, long term impact on growing our hobby? Thomas or the World's Greatest Hobby program?
I think Thomas wins by a length. Why? Because Thomas has touched the youngsters, planting seeds that will grow. It seems to me that WGH has cultivated and fertilized the existing hobbists more than it has reached the youngsters. Both programs successful and valuable, but they achieved different things.
Just my 2 cents, what do you think?
Joe