Sorry, but battery power is on the way out. http://www.popsci.com/scitech/article/2008-01/electricity-air. Wireless electricity is the future. Unless something better comes along.
Enjoy
Paul
CNJ831For the pretenders and their posts, I have no sense of humor. Neither do I for people who make inane comments in response to serious posts, those who never post information that checks out against the facts, or folks who claim knowledge and broad experience but never seem to have ever posted a single example of their own modeling expertise in these pages.
That is why I'm starting to think there may not BE ANYTHING like MRR in say a generation. It will be entirely Virtual Reality---if not even more out there---If it be anywhere at all.
Once all the 'baby boomers' disappear it will become a shadow of itself. I'd guess all of 2500 to 4500 individuals will be doing anything in it. Oh, BTW, CNJ, don't give it any thought there is even 2 or 3 'serious' modellers---I got the sneaking feeling that this definition of serious will not even register. If any DO exist, they will not even want to be counted as part of this. All else will go into antiqueing and collector markets with even those on the fringe. As for the two stream idea---I doubt it will survive even then----want proof? Check the numbers of pedal car collectors---those numbers aren't so strong---and recently I started seeing some fleamarkets doing the split routine----prices have shot up on a few things but generally right across the board declines in attendance---which makes for some interesting deals again. Remember---the 'baby boomers were/are the richest generation/with peripheral generation. Once they're out of the picture----
Any argument carried far enough will end up in Semantics--Hartz's law of rhetoric Emerald. Leemer and Southern The route of the Sceptre Express Barry
I just started my blog site...more stuff to come...
http://modeltrainswithmusic.blogspot.ca/
blownout cylinder CNJ831For the pretenders and their posts, I have no sense of humor. Neither do I for people who make inane comments in response to serious posts, those who never post information that checks out against the facts, or folks who claim knowledge and broad experience but never seem to have ever posted a single example of their own modeling expertise in these pages. That is why I'm starting to think there may not BE ANYTHING like MRR in say a generation. It will be entirely Virtual Reality---if not even more out there---If it be anywhere at all. As for the two stream idea---I doubt it will survive even then----want proof? Check the numbers of pedal car collectors---those numbers aren't so strong---and recently I started seeing some fleamarkets doing the split routine----prices have shot up on a few things but generally right across the board declines in attendance---which makes for some interesting deals again. Remember---the 'baby boomers were/are the richest generation/with peripheral generation. Once they're out of the picture----
As for the two stream idea---I doubt it will survive even then----want proof? Check the numbers of pedal car collectors---those numbers aren't so strong---and recently I started seeing some fleamarkets doing the split routine----prices have shot up on a few things but generally right across the board declines in attendance---which makes for some interesting deals again. Remember---the 'baby boomers were/are the richest generation/with peripheral generation. Once they're out of the picture----
As to whether or not and just how well a divided hobby could survive in the future, that would certainly be open to considerable debate pro and con. Personally, I expect there will be a least a small faction of highly accomplished modelers long into the future - just not necessarily viable on the commercial level. Nevertheless, evidence for a growing schism in the hobby's future is rather apparent already.
If one looks around the Internet, it will be rather quickly perceived that while the larger model railroading forums are overwhelmingly comprised of newbie and novice-level hobbyists, there are an increasing number of smaller sites/forums dedicated almost exclusively to advanced/serious model railroaders. One will also note that the later sort of individuals now rarely participate in any numbers on the "general" forums (they did formerly), while the less accomplished hobbyists don't usually stay long in the advanced venues, other than perhaps as silent lurkers. Likewise, the sort and complexity of modeling displayed on the two types of forums is usually astoundingly different.
Clearly, a situation that has been hard to miss over the past dozen years or so, is the hobby's magazines spliting into two distinct camps relative to the customer base/hobbyist modeling level they are aiming at. This has been to such a degree that the advertisers have aligned themselves almost exclusively to one or the other and the advertisers differ probably 90% in the two magazine types.
One might further infer a growing separation from the proliferation of non-clubs in recent years and a decline in larger clubs. The former groups are usually comprised of a relatively small number, or tight clique, of advanced modelers/operators, not an across the board mix of hobbyists with widely differing skill levels. The latter group seems more often found among the membership of large formal clubs, where interest and the sophistication of modeling is often (but certainly not always) of a lower level.
None of the above situations were nearly so commonplace prior to the last generation of hobbyists. Before that most shared the same sort of basic models and modeling skills, along with there being a much narrower range in skill levels between novice and advanced.
CNJ831
Dcc will become standard for train sets, and and probably there will be real diesil engines and generators running the locomotives.
CNJ831,I agree there will be "super" modelers in the coming years and we will see a slight growth in this type of modeling due today's models,scenery techniques and instant research via the Internet but,as long as this remains a hobby the common modeler will remain the dominant species.
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I not to sure about that..I have visited many clubs/attended open houses over the past 5 years and I don't see much of a divided camp...I seen Bachmann running along side the latest sound equipped locomotive...I think there is more hype on forums then in real life.
Of course there is a difference between a do nothing club and a active club.
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If one looks around the Internet, it will be rather quickly perceived that while the larger model railroading forums are overwhelmingly comprised of newbie and novice-level hobbyists, there are an increasing number of smaller sites/forums dedicated almost exclusively to advanced/serious model railroaders. One will also note that the later sort of individuals now rarely participate in any numbers on the "general" forums (they did formerly), while the less accomplished hobbyists don't usually stay long in the advanced venues, other than perhaps as silent lurkers.
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There could be reasons for advance modelers not hanging around to include being flamed by forum "experts".IF you want 2 or 3 case points send a pm...Same could be said for the novice being flamed by "know it all" self proclaim "expert" advanced modelers.
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I disagree..The hobby has always seen several camps for as long as I care to recall..
As examples the freelancers vs the stickly prototype modelers,the operators vs. the runners and so on.
I just think its more rampant today on forums while not so rampant in the real world.
Larry
Conductor.
Summerset Ry.
"Stay Alert, Don't get hurt Safety First!"
IRONROOSTER Sorry, but battery power is on the way out. http://www.popsci.com/scitech/article/2008-01/electricity-air. Wireless electricity is the future. Unless something better comes along. Enjoy Paul
Unfortunately, that's what Nikola Tesla (perhaps the greatest genius of the past 300 years) also claimed...back in the 1920's or early 30's...and he couldn't even come close to accomplishing it! And guess what? We're still using batteries and in tens of thousands of applications more than in Tesla's time.
Once any development program gets unlimited federal funding, development typically skyrockets. Look at the development of nuclear energy once it became a government project. On December 1, 1942 nuclear fission was just a theory. The next day, in Chicago, the first primative nuclear pile, so primative, in fact, that its emergency shutdown was in the hands to two men with axes who were suposed to rush in and chop the thing appart if control was lost (!!!!!!), proved that theory. Just exactly a dozen years later, the first nuclear powered submarine was at sea. The same sort of things occurred during the space race of the 1960's. Be assured, you're are going to see the very same thing again with the push for battery development between now and 2015.
CNJ831 Based on what has been seen over the past 15 years, I would have to say that the cost of the hobby will soar over just the next decade. Basic steam locomotives will surely top $500 per, with the equivalent of todays better models commanding $1,000 to $1,500 each. The age of "plastic brass" is coming. Likewise, expect to see the production/release of entire specific trains become a standard, rather the just locos and rolling stock sold separately, of course at truly astronomical prices. Major increases in pricing will also be precipitated by the progressive passing of first the older Baby Boomers (the heart of the hobby today) and then that entire generation and thus progressively narrowing the market; the rapid rise of oversea's production costs and shipping; the excessive demand for ever higher detail in models, and the manufacturers' concept of ever smaller runs and charging as much as the traffic will possibly bear.
Based on what has been seen over the past 15 years, I would have to say that the cost of the hobby will soar over just the next decade. Basic steam locomotives will surely top $500 per, with the equivalent of todays better models commanding $1,000 to $1,500 each. The age of "plastic brass" is coming. Likewise, expect to see the production/release of entire specific trains become a standard, rather the just locos and rolling stock sold separately, of course at truly astronomical prices. Major increases in pricing will also be precipitated by the progressive passing of first the older Baby Boomers (the heart of the hobby today) and then that entire generation and thus progressively narrowing the market; the rapid rise of oversea's production costs and shipping; the excessive demand for ever higher detail in models, and the manufacturers' concept of ever smaller runs and charging as much as the traffic will possibly bear.
CNJ:
Tesla is my hero. He may not have achieved his wireless-power dream, but he set the record for manmade lightning while trying!
Incidentally, the two guys in the famous squash court with axes were, IIRC, supposed to chop the control-rod rope to scram the reactor, if something went sour. I agree 100% on battery development. We've even seen some. People are blase about Li-ion batteries in electronics nowadays, but they'd have seemed like a miracle device a few years back.
I think the cost-rise you mention will happen, but I don't think it will affect the entire hobby. I think it will be similar to brass...this equipment will have a rapidly rising price, but will be sold to a shrinking niche, and will become less relevant to the majority of hobbyists as this goes on. Meanwhile, most of us will continue to use the modestly priced equipment, whoever is making it, maybe with one or two luxury models. Of course, I fully intend to do my part to promote economy. Such as it is.
Now, what will be interesting is where the hobby's declared spokespeople will go. What would have happened if, a few years back, they had followed brass? They'd have seen their audience shrink and shrink to the most affluent faction of the hobby...that's not something a magazine or other forum can really afford to do. We'll probably see history repeat itself here - the high-end stuff will still be covered and reviewed, but largely absent from the other pages, much like brass is today.
(Yes, there are brass models in the magazine articles today, but compare the current state to a magazine from the 1960s, where it was all over the place, and Bill Schopp was kitbashing brass locos in his RMC column. It's jewelry now.)
We are ready for a style change. The generally sanctioned style today, whether it's prototype-based or Koester's "prototype freelancing", is highly restrictive. This style demands adherence to standards of specific railroads or real-world regions, and actually goes further, because it encourages that we use the most mundane or typical standards when freelancing. It is a strong hindrance to creativity. What if the only fiction allowed was historical fiction? What if the only art allowed was photorealism? Furthermore, one major reason for this style (read TK's columns, or old RMC editorials) is an assumed relevance to observers, which will gain their respect. Not everybody cares about this, and anyway, a truly great work of art doesn't need to depend on preconditioned observers; it reaches out and creates its own relevance.
This is hard for people to hear. It's almost heresy...and that's why it's time for a style change. When an artistic viewpoint becomes artistic dogma, it is time to move on...not to reject it, but to synthesize it with what the style itself rejected. The best model railroads of today, I think, combine the authenticity of this style with the energy and creativity of earlier styles.
One reason this style has outlived its natural lifespan is that garden railroading and the n30 gauges have provided a sort of safety valve...but I think it is time we merged some of that creativity back into the parent company.
That's not saying much..Many of today's "super" layouts will be considered "cruel" in the years to come as the hobby advances-even the common modeler will turn out super layouts thanks to prebuilt structures,preweathered cars and locomotives,user friendly scenery material and the computer..We are already seeing pictures used as backdrops by some of the leading modelers..
There are exciting times ahead in the hobby..
CNJ831If one looks around the Internet, it will be rather quickly perceived that while the larger model railroading forums are overwhelmingly comprised of newbie and novice-level hobbyists, there are an increasing number of smaller sites/forums dedicated almost exclusively to advanced/serious model railroaders. One will also note that the later sort of individuals now rarely participate in any numbers on the "general" forums (they did formerly), while the less accomplished hobbyists don't usually stay long in the advanced venues, other than perhaps as silent lurkers. Likewise, the sort and complexity of modeling displayed on the two types of forums is usually astoundingly different
An interesting aside--some sociologists recently noted that something along a skill divide has in some ways created a kind of 'cliquishness' amongst groups usually not formerly associated with this sort of issue. I see some of this in MRR as well. In any 'fringe' or 'minority' group( in the case of 'minority' think in terms of small numbers ONLY) there usually would be some kind of underlying fractiousness, or setting up of camps. So what we've seen in some forum groups isn't all that new--but what is somewhat disturbing is this split between those with huge amounts of skill and the noobie/novice. If there is to be a MRR as a viable hobby then one is going to have to start thinking out of the box as to how one is to deal with that aspect. Oh, BTW, this is seen even in what I do as a sideline--antique dealing--think MRR is bad for this? You ain't seen nothin' like some cattish things at some fleamarkets I've been through/in
CNJ831Clearly, a situation that has been hard to miss over the past dozen years or so, is the hobby's magazines spliting into two distinct camps relative to the customer base/hobbyist modeling level they are aiming at. This has been to such a degree that the advertisers have aligned themselves almost exclusively to one or the other and the advertisers differ probably 90% in the two magazine types.
Again, in the antique area--I seem to seeing the dang magazines splitting off like amoeba. One used to talk about 'Depression Glass'--now we've got Carnival Depression Glass vs Mercury Depression Glass vs on and on--as for the differing advertisers--could some of this be a phenomenon related to a certain MRR editor?---I recall seeing a drop somewhat related to this---
CNJ831None of the above situations were nearly so commonplace prior to the last generation of hobbyists. Before that most shared the same sort of basic models and modeling skills, along with there being a much narrower range in skill levels between novice and advanced.
This, on its own, brings up a whole series of questions that are interrelated. One being a sort of decline in the respect one had for each other and all that THAT ALONE asks of us. If any hobby let alone society is to survive then maybe that respect issue has to be addressed. The sharing of knowledge as to how things could be made et cetera is one of the best ways to build confidence and skill sets in the novice---something we sometimes forget. Afterall many, if not most of the serious modelllers started on THEIR road as children----
While I'm not in agreement with most of what CNJ has stated (or the tone in which some of it was presented or at least received), I'm thankful to him for provoking a very thoughtful and engaging exchange of ideas.
Sadly, I see that there is a segment of this hobby that has come to take itself so seriously that it's lost the ability to see any other way to take part in the hobby. My personal layout is modest in size, follows no specific prototype in terms of date, location, equipment, or operation. While I'm no slouch, my modeling skill is modest, my hobby budget even less so. I spend a sum total of a couple of hours a week on the layout (if I'm lucky). In context of CNJ's argument about a stratification of the hobby into (and I paraphrase here) the "good" modelers and the pretender/novice/newbies, I wouldn't consider myself to fall into either of those categories. I suspect that the overwhelming majority of modelers would claim the same. It is my strong belief that manufacturers will continue to recognize that reality and continue to offer increasingly detailed and well-running modestly-priced products. A $100 locomotive to me is still a very expensive locomotive (I own none so pricey), and Atlas and Spectrum are as top-of-the line as I need or want.
Perhaps the hobby will stratify, but I see that separation being between an increasingly shrinking, specific, expensive high-end niche and the "everyman" affordable mass production offerings.
"I am lapidary but not eristic when I use big words." - William F. Buckley
I haven't been sleeping. I'm afraid I'll dream I'm in a coma and then wake up unconscious. -Stephen Wright
CNJ831 . . . . . . . . . . a large number of blowhards and individuals with scant knowledge of a subject usually with little of value to add to any discussion . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . a large number of blowhards and individuals with scant knowledge of a subject usually with little of value to add to any discussion . . . . . . . . . .
BRAVO!!!!!
Through this posting I have developed a new sense of respect for your talents! Your sense of introspection is worthy of notable admiration! There is a Japanese proverb which states that "He who chases two hares will catch neither." I have never tried to master performing two tasks simultaneosly but you obviously have developed the unique skill of watching yourself in front of a mirror shaving while at the same time composing subjective speculation on your computer. Please take pride and joy for your mastery of the true art of magniloquence!
Again BRAVO!!!!!
CNJ831 For the pretenders and their posts, I have no sense of humor. Neither do I for people who make inane comments in response to serious posts . . . . . . . . . .
For the pretenders and their posts, I have no sense of humor. Neither do I for people who make inane comments in response to serious posts . . . . . . . . . .
You need to change your choice of breakfast drink from vinegar to orange juice; your disposition will show a significant improvement by doing so!
CNJ831 . . . . . . . . . . those who never post information that checks out against the facts, or folks who claim knowledge and broad experience but never seem to have ever posted a single example of their own modeling expertise in these pages.
. . . . . . . . . . those who never post information that checks out against the facts, or folks who claim knowledge and broad experience but never seem to have ever posted a single example of their own modeling expertise in these pages.
I have been cautioned by good ol' Bergie on a couple of occasions reminding me that this is a model railroad forum and not an English101 forum. If your definition of "blowhard" includes correct spelling and complete and properly punctuated spelling then I will proudly proclaim myself as one of those "blowhards" I will also proclaim myself to be deficient in
. . . . . . . . . . knowledge and broad experience . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . modeling expertise . . . . . . . . . .
I will tender one example before closing--which is probably the most profound element of this posting:
Every since I joined the forum three years ago scenery construction has been a primary topic of discussion; in that vein much has been said about foam. Already immensely popular, had this topic been raised ten or more years ago foam would have been one of those futuristic materials for our model railroad community. I have never used the stuff as I readily acknowledge when I offer a "blowhard" opinion on that subject of its use; the one time I would have used it perhaps I couldn't find it so I returned to the use of hardshell scenery which has been my material of choice over nearly three decades.
I have always tendered this "blowhard" opinion on this subject: with hardshell if I don't like existing scenery I can cut out that portion and reform it; the same can, of course, be done with foam. But if I still don't like things I can just cut and reform evem to the point of returning to the way it initially was. What do you do with foam construction in this regard? The answer seems to be: "You cut out the errant section and rebuild with new foam cuttings" which is fine but at the expense of this stuff foam scenery seems to be just a little on the expensive side. I think I will remain a hardshell scenery modeler; I've used it long enough to be comfortable with it. But that is just my "blowhard" opinion!
The newbie seeking advice on scenery is going to be presented with alternatives and he--or she--can evaluated the merits of expressed opinion!
From the far, far reaches of the wild, wild west I am: rtpoteet
CNJ831IRONROOSTER Sorry, but battery power is on the way out. http://www.popsci.com/scitech/article/2008-01/electricity-air. Wireless electricity is the future. Unless something better comes along. Enjoy Paul Unfortunately, that's what Nikola Tesla (perhaps the greatest genius of the past 300 years) also claimed...back in the 1920's or early 30's...and he couldn't even come close to accomplishing it! And guess what? We're still using batteries and in tens of thousands of applications more than in Tesla's time. ... CNJ831
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The difference is that now it's actually being done.
Relax, man. The Wrath Of POD is directed primarily at me since I'm usually the one that falls on the floor convulsed with laughter and does so publicly.
I'd love to participate further in this little coffee klatch, but the missus and I are leaving shortly for a transcontinental road trip, which will include a couple of days at the Mid-South Live Steamers meet in Columbia, TN. I'm not a live steamer, but I have a friend in Kentucky who is. Ought to be fun.
I'm kind of amazed that this thread hasn't been put out of its misery, although that'll probably happen sooner rather than later.
Here's a question to ponder. What actually constitutes a serious model railroader? When I ask myself the question, the only thing that comes back is the image of F. Murray Abraham's rendition of Antonio Salieri in "Amadeus".
Andre
This thread has been entertaining, but it is no longer contributing new thoughts or discoveries. Instead, we are rehashing old and familiar territory, including getting mired in the same tiring arguments and tensions that arise from the usual polarity.
Long way of saying, we've done this. We have turned a thread about the future into one about the past. So, it's history.
-Crandell