State of the hobby?

[twaldie]

I'm starting to get a little worried about our hobby.  I know this has been discussed a lot recently, but I'm going to beat this horse a little more and see if anyone out there has any ideas for changes to get "youngsters", maybe 30 & under, more involved.

I went to an event recently where the local HO club had set up in a childrens museum.  This was a great location, but I was left wondering what they were trying to accomplish.  There were 6 or 7 people there running trains, but they were so tied up setting up consists, fixing derailments, working on engines, adjusting couplers, etc., that the kids that were there to see trains (and I believe hopefully run trains) were being totally ignored.  A steamer pulling 50 hoppers is an impressive sight, but the kids were blowing right by looking for something they could do.  The clubs layout looked great, but it seems like a 20' x 20' with multiple loops of track with seperate controls and some "expendable" rolling stock that the kids could run would have been a lot more effective at getting them interested in trains. 

One thing funny about trains, it seems like the hobby is passed from son to father as often as father to son, and at this event the kids (and by extension, their 20 to 30 something parents) had better things to do.

Does anyone else out there see this happening?  We seem to be lousy ambassadors.

Tim

 

[RR Redneck]

Well I will admit that sometimes when I look in Model Railraoder, I think of how old the modellers are. But then I remember that building such layouts require years of work and spending merate to small amounts of money at a time.

[Buckeye Riveter]

  We seem to be lousy ambassadors.

BINGO!  You gotta put the kids hands on the controls.

[Anonymous]

My opinion:

Almost all kids--boys and girls alike--enjoy trains, both real and toy, when they are youngsters.  They read about them at an early age ("Little Engine that Could," see them on TV or via videos (Thomas & Friends), and are somewhat in awe at seeing the "real thing."

Almost all kids--once they reach their teen years--find other interests that compete for, and hold, their attention.  It has always been this way, and no amount of indoctrination or persuasion is going to change that, nor should it.  Individuals have to find their own paths, and discover for themselves where their interests lie at that point in their development.

Almost all kids--once they leave childhood and the teen years behind--are very involved with actually setting their path in life via college, careers, marriage, and families, and most really have little time for trains or just about any other creative pastime.

Some "kids"--once they approach the mid-point of their lives and have otherwise settled into their chosen lifestyle--will seek to establish involvement in some leisure pastime they may have discovered in those intervening years, and some will seek such a pastime for nostalgic reasons.  That pastime--hobby, if you will--may involve toy trains or it may involve something else.

In short:  Why fret and worry about it?  Some folks will always be drawn to this hobby (albeit in fewer numbers than those of us who were around when railroads were king), and the hobby itself, in its various facets, will be around for far beyond the lifespan of anyone reading this.  And the hobby industry itself will continue to adjust and adapt to these demographic changes.

My guess is that the model railroading hobby as a whole experienced what history will record as its greatest boom period in the decade of the 90s and through the turn of the century--again, thanks largely to the war babies and postwar boomer generation.  Nothing can ever replace that.  Hopefully, all here, despite their passions for this hobby, are astute enough to recognize that simple fact.

So what the hobby industry has to do is retrench with some out-of-the-box thinking to keep itself afloat and profitable, and what we hobbyists have to do is contribute in our own way, as individuals, to demonstrate the many attractive features of this hobby to others whenever we have the opportunity.  That doesn't assure growth in raw numbers of participants, but what it does do is help to assure a continued level of exposure which may lead to new participation.

The industry itself is already seeing the effects of the boom bubble gradually deflating.  K-Line is gone, as is Industrial Rails, New Marx, and others (some of which are reappearing in leaner form); Marklin, the oldest and largest producer of model trains, experienced financial difficulties and was sold to another enterprise; LGB announced a day or so ago that it is turning over the reigns of LGB of America to another group; small dealers around the nation are closing their doors; national club membership in all scales is on the decline; and so on and so forth.  It sure doesn't take a crystal ball to see what is happening.

My recommendations to hobbyists and the industry:

1.  Expose the hobby to those who show some level of interest at every possible opportunity.

2.  Get back to devoting more attention to the nostalgia tie that long perpetuated interest in this hobby.  It all starts, for most at least, with that train circling the family Christmas tree--a tradition that survives to this day.  The kids of today will (as most of us did) remember those traditions, and the people involved with them, long after we're all gone, and it's entirely likely that a number of them will be drawn to not only reliving the tradition with a train set of their own during the holiday period, but will eventually be drawn to the possibility of doing even more with that train set, or expanding on a rekindled interest in the history and grandeur of railroading in its various facets.

[msacco]

I think Allan makes some really valid points and his advice to not worry about is right on.

As far as the original post goes.... hey, no offense to HOers but those trains even bore me. HO guys are generally scale and rivet obsessed and that's just not for kids. Yes, kids need to be able to control trains but you need more interaction. O gauge offers accessories and as JLC knew, it's really the key to having fun.

   I get bored running O guage train myself after awhile. That's why I put on a chockful of postwar and some modern era accessories on my two 4x8 sheet layout. My ongoing layout is not protoypical. Sure I have a sort of industrial area and a town kind of area, but that's about as real as it gets. I mix accessories and don't care if an 8ft tall 1045 Watchman is near a scale figure.

   I don't have all my accessories wired up yet, but my two nephews keeps asking me when. I have to get to it because even my wife likes them. She was a little disappointed at the famous Choo Choo Barn layout we visited this summer. After we left she asked me,  " where are the postwar accessories"

Mike S

[Smoke Stack Lightnin']

The new technology in this hobby is very expensive.  I've always had a passion for O gauge, but the expense has always been a hell of a hurdle.  Locally, the rare postwar stuff I paid top dollar for depreciates more each day as sadly, my friends in the hobby pass on thus causing decreased demand thus causing market saturation.  There are older Lionel sets that won't sell locally at $300, but will move on ebay to the Western states or foreign markets for $1500.  In short, I think the stuff that would "wow" the kids is way too expensive, and the older classics can't compete with the bells and whistles of the new techno toys kids have come to expect.  They have a very narrow attention span.  For less than the price of one engine, kids can buy complete systems for R/C cars and off road vehicles and any yard, beach, or field becomes their layout.  It seems interest in Thomas the engine is starting to wane.  It's going to be quite a challenge to keep kids intersested in our memories.

Rich F.

[DCmontana]

Exposure!  That's the key word.  Every Christmas I take my layout to school, 5 X 12 made up of  three 5 X 4 modules.  We bring the elementary kids to the high school auditorium where it is set up.  They love it!  They don't get to run the train, but they see the action from a short distance and really have a great time.  The only complaint I get is from parents, "Where can I find a train set before Christmas and how much will it cost???  Starter sets are the key to the hobbies future.  Starter sets need to be made in contemporary road names.  Even if it is steam, decorate it for the BNSF or what ever.  Kids at a very early age begin to recognize what they see and identify with it.  I have kids and they have their friends at the house and sometimes when I am there I run it for them, let them take some controls.  They switch, operate the automatic cars, and control the throttle.  I always tell them where trains are available and have made some converts.  I have been doing this since 1996!  One of my former students has a lot more stuff then I have and is really into command control.  I have gotten some stores to use toy trains in windows or as displays inside the store.  Usually they like the garden type trains, but the that's not important.  What is important is preserving a hobby that can be enjoyed by everyone.  It is a hobby that grows and when you build a layout, it is your little world.  Mine is a fall Montana afternoon in the 1950's.  There is snow in the mountains, but none in the valley yet.  It is probably the last day to have the top down in a convertable and drag main. Christmas is not that far away.  I love my trains! 

[Poppa_Zit]

I think everyone should panic, and sell me their trains real cheap.

 

 

 

[RR Redneck]

Look model trains are just like any other hobby, you can talk and promote all you want, but it takes actually trying it.

[casconi]

I can tell you that I am 23 and I have been in this hobby since I have been 10. It took my dad giving me his old Lionel trains (now priceless) to get me hooked. Lionel should hire a guy like me! I'll tell them what to do!

[pgtr]

I'm starting to get a little worried about our hobby.  I know this has been discussed a lot recently, but I'm going to beat this horse a little more and see if anyone out there has any ideas for changes to get "youngsters", maybe 30 & under, more involved.

...

Does anyone else out there see this happening?  We seem to be lousy ambassadors.

OK I'll bite...

In 1953 Lionel did $33M in sales. US population was around 160M. I don't know how many sets they produced off hand but they had a pretty darn impressive market penetration at the time.

2006 - care to guess what they'd need to do in sales to rival 1953? About 250M give or take a few depending upon the inflation or index calculator your subscribe to.

Today's population? About 300M.

I'll hazard a hunch that compared to the 1953 population penetration Lionel is waaaaaay off that mark.

Going out and doing a public display can be a lot of fun and gratifying but I don't think it will ever make a difference in what has perhaps already become a niche hobby segment with other hobbies such as RC even surpassing it. Regardless of what is really happening or what we may perceive is happening I know I'll still enjoy it.

My $0.02

[Jumijo]

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that the toy train industry is in a lean period. Even CTT issues are getting thinner. But I think most hobbies on the whole are experiencing similar downward trends. Watching tv or playing video games is what we do now in our spare time.

Kids do love trains, and all one needs to do is slap a starter set together to get a child's attention. Kids don't need or even want all the fancy high dollar sounds and gizmos on toy trains. They are perfectly happy with a whistle that they can blow at will.

The unfortunate thing is that not enough people realize this. Toy trains are still marketed to adults who are already in the hobby. To promote growth, they should be marketed to children. And these clubs that set up layouts at train shows are also missing the point. What kid wants to see a 50 car coal train crawl around a table at a slow scale speed? NONE! They want speed, colorful cars, action. Those so-called embassadors are doing more to alienate kids that to attract them.

Low-cost starter sets advertised to children would be a great idea. Why is that so difficult to comprehend?

Jim

[cnw1995]

Jerry Calabrese had an interesting interview in another magazine where he highlighted these very issues - how selling to the already-converted hobbyists is less a way to grow (for Lionel, not the hobby in general) than tying train sets to collectible or more visible markets that tie directly in with the current culture.  I'm with Allen though - and he said much more eruditely than I ever could: don't worry and work with adults

I have a host of kids who like to visit the layout and run the trains. Invariably, they go on to other things. My teens are uninterested now - into teen things - and dozens of their friends regularly loll around the basement near the layout without noticing it. That's not to say my personal experience is scaleable or any more valid than others but I've personally had greater success with befriending fellow grown-ups. Inviting them down to run some trains; agreeing to help them buy a train set (very difficult to do locally) for Christmas or poke around in their attics looking for old trains.

I'll tell you one big learning though - visitors to my years-ago N scale layout thought it (and by extension I) was weird - it was so tiny, so detailed, etc. Visitors to my O gauge layout - with lights, sounds, moving items, and a quicker ability to take a throttle without knowing or caring about railroad practice -- just exclaim how fun and impressive it all is. This says more about me than the hobby, but I'm fairly young and much more "public" around my acquaintances about it than I was when I was more involved in the smaller scales - and with peers or slightly older folks, the name Lionel still resonates.

[brianel027]

Yes gang, but with all due respect, Allen's comment of working with the adults bodes poorly for the future of the hobby, and is in fact exactly what the train makers have been doing already for the past decade.

In his OGR interview, Calabreese admitted that Lionel to some degree has already dropped the ball. Some of the effort needed now should have been done years ago. Not that efforts haven't been made. Lionel is still the most recognized name of the lot so in the case of promoting the hobby, the bulk of the responsibility falls upon Lionel, should they choose to make that effort.

But there are some conflicting thoughts in Calabreese's interview. On one hand he talks about Lionel's perceived value and how happy he was that one department store chain was able to sellout of Lionel sets at full list. On the other hand, the top ten Lionel dealers are all mail order venues that offer deep discounts and blowouts as available. So in other words, as much as Lionel would like to sell products at full price, the reality is the consumer wants discounts. And the established train hobbiest demands discounts, knows where to find them, and sometimes will not buy at all without.

The point above about R/C cars opens some thoughts. Much comment has been made how Lionel needs to advertise, yet R/C cars do not advertise. Granted, quality levels between the two hobbies are not necessarily compriable, but R/C cars are for sale nearly everywhere especially during the holiday buying season. Lionel trains are not. R/C cars are made in replicas of contemporary, current vehicle types, not 1955 Ford Sedans. Lionel trains on the other hand are still stuck in 1955 when it comes to starter product types and road name offerings.

At this point I have to give MTH some credit for at least trying. They don't have the Lionel name or the level of sales that Lionel has. Yet Mike has offered high quality starter sets with some modern diesel types and in modern roads. The former Railking SD45 and SD90MAC should have been done by Lionel a decade ago. I think Lionel would have seen more results from the effort that MTH did. Most folks looking to buy a starter set are looking for Lionel. And while MTH offered a high quality set, they were on the more expensive side, and came with scant little more than a circle of track - which in my opinion (and others) hurt their sales.

Take a gander over on the other forum and you so often see threads on "we want this" or "why don't they make this and make it now" or what will be in the next catalog when the current catalog isn't even out yet. The adult train buying public has become something of a spolied rotten Frankenstein monster with the "me me me me" attitude: we want THIS, we want it NOW, and after we said we wanted it, we won't buy it until it becomes a blowout. I'd rather talk about trains with kids who are expected to act like children, not grown adults who act like children.

And I have very little sympathy for those who cry about the loss of K-Line. They wanted the scale stuff, but waited for the blowouts to buy it, when K-Line products were already competitively prices as compare to MTH and Lionel. For as supposedly smart and educated as one might think many adult train buyers are, they sure don't have a clue when it comes to figuring out how much it costs to tool up all these new products - and pricing them at a point where the companies can stay in business. Yep, they got their K-Line Hudson or Mikado at a blowout, and in the process lost K-Line.

This is a niche hobby and yet today's adult buyers fully expect every catalog to contain gobs of newly tooled and developed products. And the train makers up to this point have been absolutely dumb enough to go along like lemmings off a cliff.

Which brings me to the lawsuit, which when the final ruling comes down in December or Janurary could really change everything. I wonder if Wellspring will really swallow the $42M judgement should Lionel lose. They already fired a load of higher level folks, many of whom probably had little to do with the circumstances that led to the suit. And though little has been said on this, it's my opinion that MTH is also in tight monetary straits. I think they desparately need the win and are counting on the award money. MTH has put far too much into tooling given the amount of sales they have. Lionel gets the Lionel's share of the $100M estimated annual sales of the 3-rail hobby. The rest gets split between EVERYONE else. MTH has invested far more in tooling and dies than Lionel has, and yet doesn't do the annual sales Lionel does. I wouldn't doubt for a moment that Mike isn't getting financial help from someone or some party of investors out there.

So whatever the state of the hobby now, it will could change again dramatically in a few months. Regardless of that, it is still up to Lionel to take the lead in growing the hobby. Lionel has the name and they need to make the effort. But they also need to stop charging people for the name and worrying about collectibles: the market determines what becomes collectible, not the manufacturer. And then there's technology - it may be wonderful but there comes a point where it also isn't affordable. Neil Young can talk all he wants about what a wonderful "family" hobby the trains are, and how the new technology enhances the realism. But the reality is that folks who see the current Lionel catalogs realize this is an adult hobby, not a family hobby.

Technology is wonderful, but it has to be affordable for families... and right now it simply isn't. I highly doubt the typical farm family advocated for in the Farm Aid Concerts has the discretionary income to participate in this "family" hobby, at least from a technology standpoint. I consider myself an offical spokeman when it comes to the topic of disposable family income and this hobby, and I have zero interest in chuff rates, rivet counts, headlight placement or Cherry Vanilla flavored TMCC. Why bother drooling over something I can't afford? Fortunately, I'm resourceful enough and creative enough to still participate in the hobby.

I could only wish that RMT had the name awareness that Lionel has. Then I would say the future is looking good for the train hobby.

[MartyE]

Pennsylvania is the state where I enjoy my hobby!

[eZAK]

That about sums it all up brianel!
Good post.

Let the kids run 'em!

Take them to see and ride real trains.

Sell upgradable starter sets for under $150 at Wally World.

[Anonymous]

  We seem to be lousy ambassadors.

BINGO!  You gotta put the kids hands on the controls.

Yep.

Farm a loop of track and a few switches for a variety of routes a train can safely take without running off a dead end siding.

Give the kid the DT400 and allow him or her a few minutes with it.

AFTER establishing a max top speed in program track the engine can safely do on that particular track BEFORE the kids get there.

Let em run trains a few minutes. They will get a blast from that. Especially if the unit had Sound onboard.

The last GATS show in Little Rock had what they called "Races" and the goal was to get to the end of the straight first. (I tried it and lost.) I noticed some of the parents were drawn into it by the children's excitement. It might not be assaulting Altoona with big steam and strings of steam era rolling stock but for the kids it was FUN because they get to do something themselves instead of being told "look, dont touch" all the time in other parts of the show.

As a child I knew it was near the Holidays when the area fire-halls got started with thier annual exhibits of trains running for the public to come and enjoy (Plus a donation here and there is nice)

I wonder how many firehalls around the USA have a way to share the holidays with the public?

[RR Redneck]

I can tell you that I am 23 and I have been in this hobby since I have been 10. It took my dad giving me his old Lionel trains (now priceless) to get me hooked. Lionel should hire a guy like me! I'll tell them what to do!

Like drop prices?

[Buckeye Riveter]

Will he someday choose G Scale or O Scale?

[dwiemer]

Exposure is the biggest thing.  Take advantage of the things like Thomas and Polar Express.  Lionel is finally coming around on the Thomas thing, but look how much time they are getting out of the Polar Express, to catalog several years worth with add ons, etc.  Appeal to Hollywood and network TV to put some train related scripts together "Polar Express 2"?, or other programs with the enthusiasm of ie: Mandy Patinkin, etc.

Price, as stated earlier, you need to have more starter sets at lower cost.  People don't jump into the hobby and purchase high dollar items for the kids.  You want reliable, sturdy, action packed entertainment at a affordable price.

I have mentioned this a long time ago, but will repeat for this topic.  Last year, I went to a department store with the family.  While looking through the Christmas section, ornaments, etc, I spied a Polar Express set sitting idle on  a display.  The CW80 had its green light on, so I snuck to the inside of the barrier and started the train rolling.  A few blasts of the whistle later, and the display was surrounded by people wanting to purchase these sets for the kids.  Static displays only do so much, you have to give them hands on and see action.  This is why "Authorized" Lionel dealers have to have a operating layout.

Lastly, when possible, you have to support your local hobby/train store.  That is where people will drive by or stop in and see trains running.  If you don't support them, they won't be there.  I stated "when possible" and I mean that I have seen stores charging 150% of catalog price for trains, ie Hobby Lobby's prices for Lionel starter sets.  They are only a good deal if you can get the 50% off, which is only 25% off MSRP.

Dennis

[Anonymous]

Brian wrote:

"The adult train buying public has become something of a spolied rotten Frankenstein monster with the "me me me me" attitude: we want THIS, we want it NOW, and after we said we wanted it, we won't buy it until it becomes a blowout."
----------
For the past six or seven years, I've been saying (and writing) that the worst enemy we have in this hobby is us.  Not everyone, of course, but a good number who have, in my humble opinion, worked incessantly to re-make the O gauge toy train segment of the hobby--three-rail O gauge, that is--into something it was never intended to be.  And just about anyone who has been around the toy train side of the hobby long enough, and who has followed the various forums on a regular basis over the years, will probably nod his head in agreement.

I can't speculate on whether or not it's too late for things to change course--that's kind of up to the various manufacturers at this point, I suppose.  It won't really impact me much one way or the other because I already have more than enough trains and nowadays just look forward to enjoying what I have.  But to my way of thinking, toy trains--not near-to-scale model trains--have long been the portal that led folks into this hobby, be it at an early age or later in life.  In the world of three-rail O gauge, that all changed in the mid- to late-90s, and what we see today is, by and large, the result of that Frankenstein (as Brian describes it) that we helped to create and which the largest of the manufacturers bought into.  All of them need to wake up and recognize that all the Big Boys and fancy control systems in the world, at equally fancy prices, are not going to do a thing to grow their customer base.  If they're smart--really smart--they'll start paying a whole lot more attention to improving what is offered in those entry level starter sets and related items.  There's no need to totally neglect the high-end market as long as it continues to exist, but there is a need to take steps to assure that the ladder leading up to those types of items isn't missing so many rungs that few will even attempt the climb.

[brianel027]

Thank you Allan. I know you and I don't always see everything the same, but this is one issue we have some common ground on. there's obviously demand for the high end stuff, but not that much demand that it necessitates the majority of anyone's catalog being devoted to it.

Unlike others, I HAVE spent time at shows with a simple yet interesting display layout in which kids were invited and welcome to operate. If a kid wanted to run the trains, he got the chance. No rope barrier either. Nothing expensive and NO command control, and yet my display was easily if not more popular than the more ellaborate expensive displays. The crowds around my non-command layout were just as large as those around the other command layouts running expensive locos with many signs saying "Do not touch the trains." And from the many comments I got, I know my layout made more of an impression on young families than did the more impressive trains that those families knew they could never afford anyhow.

"Do not touch the trains." Doesn't that just warm your heart? Family hobby? Yeah, right. Signs like that go a long way to explaining the sad state the hobby is in today. Good thing J.L. Cohen didn't promote the hobby with signs like that or we'd be reading about this hobby as a postscript in a history book.

Anyone who follows the recording industry knows that Neil Young has been one of the most outspoken voices against digital recording, even when the entire industry had already gone digital. Even after the music buying general public had overwhelmingly agreed they wanted CDs over vinyl. Analog recording tape isn't even being made anymore. Neil still issues his records on vinyl, not that anyone cares.

Now comparing digital versus analog recording is like comparing alligators and apples. But in my mind, it brings up an interesting counter point. The 3-rail train hobby on the other hand, has not gone entirely digital control. Traditional users still make up the vast majortity of operators as do non-scale operators. Makes you wonder if anyone at Lionel really understands the concept of marketing? They want more people to be introduced to the hobby, yet keep producing technology with related prices increases that continually reduce the numbers of folks who can afford to be in the hobby.

Take a gander over at the CoilCouplers website and see all the clarifications about the new Lionel "Lunacy" Cherry Vanilla flavored TMCC. Dang tootin' Hoss, even the die-hard train guys can't figure it out, never mind some 8-year kid with his parents. For me, the trains are suppose to be about FUN, not frustration from trying to even figure out how they are suppose to work (providing that they even do out of the box). And how about this quote from Clyde concerning the new "Lunacy" Cherry Vanilla  Big Boy:

"WOW! What a sensation! I really think you need to try this yerself folks. Words don't do it justice! These really are the good ole days!"

Hate to wake you up Clyde , but the alarm has been going off for the past decade and these ARE NOT the good old days...

In the good ole' days, the trains were TOYS meant to be played with and were marketed to KIDS and their DADS - and not just DAD, like today. There was also nationwide advertising and nationally recognized brand tie-ins that made Lionel the most recognizable toy brand name in the country. Which by the way, is how WE ALL got started in this hobby, including Clyde.

In the good ole' days, the trains were for sale everywhere. They had visability and discount prices could be had anywhere after the holidays, not just from a few select mail order venues.

In the good ole' days, Lionel was still a pretty penny, but there wasn't all the competition for consumer leisure dollars like there is now. And even though even then, the trains were on the cutting edge of technology, you didn't need a college degree in computer science to figure them out! Dang! Put 'em on the track and they ran out of the box! What a concept!! Made in America... another concept, now made overseas! Folks can knock postwar and MPC, but at least when I hold one of those items,.I know that train helped employ an American worker.

In the good ole' days, fun and operating items were the keys... not chuff rates and rivet counts. Back then our IMAGINATIONS were not as stiffled as they seem to be now. Funny how in the catalog text way back when, even a simple smoke pellet and an air whistle was REALISM. And that level of superb realism was NOT out of the price range of most working families as it is now.

And with the approximate two grand cost of the "Lunacy" Cherry Vanilla  Big Boy, I kinda suspect that a whole load of us will not be trying it out anytime real soon. Unless the guy in the orange suit that loaned one to Clyde, wants to go on a nationwide tour. Go over to Cylde's site and request a Boy Boy loaner.... haha.

As for me, I stopped doing shows. I did my part and now it's time for Lionel to do their part. I can't count the times I heard "where'd you get that?" when folks saw all the current road names on my smaller low end trains. It doesn't cost that much more to slap Norfolk Southern or Conrail on the side of a loco as it does PRR or NYC. Even the same exact ATSF war bonnet scheme could say BNSF and still be prototypical! What good does it do me, or anyone to go out and promote a hobby for a company that seems on the surface to have little interest in truly making their products accesible to working class folks, which is where the future lies.

The Polar Express set has been one piece of good news on this front lately. Time will tell if Lionel can maintain the momentum of the Polar Express success, or will answer the banging on the door from the never satisfied Frankenstein monster and focus on the momentum control of  "Lunacy" Cherry Vanilla flavored TMCC.

Maybe the new "Lunacy" Cherry Vanilla  Big Boy will come with a sign for shows that says "Do not touch the trains."

[FJ and G]

I think it would be nice to have an annual "State of the Hobby Address."

The address could address such  topics as:

- which scales and gauges lost or gained hobbyists

- demographics such as median and mean age, state-by-state listings etc

- an honest state of the toy train industry, done by someone who is not a company insider

etc

[pennsy_fan]

I have to agree with many folks who say that Lionel (& MTH) need to get displays out to the public.
Coke & Pepsi are not household names all this time for nothing, they spend untold millions every year on the magic pill called advertising. Toy Train manufacturers, IMHO,depend way to much on catalogs and word of mouth to get their product sold.They must get those AFFORDABLE starter sets out and running in the public arena. Not just train shows, but, department stores and hardware stores.Like they did back in JLC's day.

Some radio and tv announcements wouldnt hurt, either. Kids and their parents need to be more exposed to the hobby, with a "hands on" approach, if were going to purpetuate the hobby beyond todays collectors, operaters. On the other hand, this hobby has gone through lean periods before and still survives today. So i dont think it will go completely extinct. (I.E. stamp collecting, coin collecting).

[phillyreading]

I have to agree with pennsy_fan that the industry as a whole needs to spend money on advertising and not lawsuits, the lawsuits only hurt the hobby and make people think negatively about the hobby!  Let's see more advertising than just in toy train magazines.  

Not only do we have Lionel & MTH but others like; Williams Weaver, Third Rail Brass, Atlas O.

Also in the last 12 years I have seen three hobby shops close in south Florida that dealt mainly with trains, one in Ft. Pierce-can not recall name, one in Port St. Lucie-Lee's Hobbies, one in West Palm Beach-BT&L Railroad-mainly H.O. trains.

Lee F.

[Smoke Stack Lightnin']

There has never been a better time to be in this hobby, there's something for everybody.  I love the growl of my postwars, but they get boring and I'll feel a need to switch over to sounds and speed control.  Williams run great for the money, Atlas look great, just a great selection of stuff out there, but it is all relatively expensive albeit some more than others.  IMHO, there needs to be more of a hook like Thomas the Engine and after school comercials like Lionel used to do, and way out concepts like L.A.S.E.R., but doubt that's gonna happen.  My thoughts are when you buy it, don't plan on much of a return on the resale, cause it's all heading to bottom out someday- soon.  I am an adult, I do love trains, I spend too much money on em, and the funeral director won't have to spend too much time wiring a smile on my face!  Why can't God make an adult that lasts longer than a Lionel?

Rich F. 

[RR Redneck]

Will he someday choose G Scale or O Scale?

Oh, oh, I would choose........................................BOTH!

[Brutus]

Lionel or another brand needs to get a tie-in with some kid show.  Think about it!  They need to have some kid who plays with his O gauge trains, then imaginatively jumps on his "Lionel Lines Train of Thought" and has some wild adventure or something!  Man, I could make a billion dollars with this pitch - but they need to do 2 things:  1) foolproof, kid friendly train and track set so Mom will buy it for the kids (Dad probably would anyway, but Mom is the one who tends to spend on kid stuff) and 2) a foolproof Lionel Transformer that works right every time (CW80-V2).

[nblum]

I really wonder if it helps the hobby or reflects reality to be whining about the trend toward hi-rail scale models?  This is the trend that doubled the size of the market in the 1990s mostly through MTH's efforts.  Pages in CTT increased dramatically, and OGRR the magazine went from one step above a club newsletter to a real magazine.  Obviously that stuff was selling or MTH's sales wouldn't have gone from close to zero to 40 million per year with Lionel's staying the same or growing slightly.  Also, moaning about TMCC II and the Big Boy because they are way out of your league seems to be in the same ballpark as scale guys making fun of Lionel postwar, or two railers snickering about three railers.  What we like is what we like, and if someone else doesn't like it, they can go suck eggs :).

That having been said, if you look at the current Lionel catalog there are dozens of pages of conventional locos and train sets to complement the dozens of pages of command locos and scale rolling stock.  There are still plenty of whimsical accessories and postwar like operating cars.

The problem is not in our stars, dear Brutus, but in ourselves.  The public doesn't want to spend hundreds of dollars, much less thousands on three rail trains.  That's been so for most of the last 50 years, and likely won't change.  This will remain a niche hobby that appeals to a tiny percentage of the population, as it does now.  The same is true of model railroading in general.  Advertising and products for three rail trains were always geared towards adults, who were the only ones who could afford the stuff, then and now.  Kids just aren't interested today the way they were when these were the premier toys.  I think we should learn to live with that instead of flagellating ourselves and assigning blame for "who lost toy trains as a hobby?"

[brianel027]

Neil, you make some observations that are worthy of addressing. I'm sorry you think of my comments (and maybe others) as moaning. I have a lot of fun with my trains which are not loaded with the latest electronics or details. I think there's a cultural perception that you can't enjoy something unless it's the best and most expensive. It's a little bit of the "keeping ahead of the neighbors' attitude."

The train companies have all talked about growing the hobby and introducing trains to younger people. But then they make the very minimal effort to that goal. I'm certain they all realize that their bulk of sales are currently coming from the older adult buyers. That's fine, but then they shouldn't talk about wanting to grow the hobby. Because as Jerry Calabrese admitted in the OGR interview, it takes a lot more work and effort to introduce the hobby to newcomers than it does to cater to estabished buyers. But there's liability in that too.

The established adult buyers today are very demanding. I know for a fact that the company reps typically hear comments at YORK like "well, if you won't make this, I'll buy one from the other company" or "so and so makes a new F3, so why don't you?" Which helps explain why there is so much duplication of new product offerings. Combine this with the tight economy, inflation (fuel costs), the intense (and often bitter) competition, the lawsuits and the expense of all the new product tooling: it's not easy street for the train companies and I'm sure they are struggling to stay in business more than most of us realize. Heck, you have small local hobby retailers closing their doors every week. That alone says something.

As far as my comments on "Lunacy" Cherry Vanilla TMCC I stand by them. All statistics and evidence I've seen and read shows that digital control is still the minority of users. The last numbers I saw from Lionel were at 25% (probably a little more now), and bear in mind that TMCC has far more users than DCS. So all this effort and investment into the digital control systems does not benefit the vast majority of modelers. Though it may benefit those who are spending larger sums of money on trains. BUT how much longer will that continue? We've all read threads from guys who say they have more than enough trains, or who say they are buying far less than they did a few years ago. That doesn't bode well for the future.

By Lionel's own admission, their strongest area of sales is in starter sets and related items. And my guess is that means the sets under $300 list, the $30 starter cars, and the reasonably operating cars/accessories: the aquarium car and ice loader fall into that category. Matter of fact, I notice fewer blowouts on these items than I do the higher end items or the higher priced items like some of the PWC reissues. And my feeling is that many of the PWC cars are over priced to begin with. $45 for a simple two-dome tank car on a folded sheet metal frame? That is unquestionably over priced. As are many items given the overseas cheap cheap cheap labor costs.

There is no arguement over the contrbution MTH made to this hobby. But what's good can also be bad. The bad blood between Lionel and MTH has also led to more divisions between hobbiests too. I do doubt that MTH's sales have stayed at that $40M figure. My gut feeling is that they're down. And my gut feeling is that when the lawsuit judgement day arrives, it may put one of those companies out of business. At the very least it will effect them in a big way: I doubt Wellspring wants to swallow a $40M loss, and I think MTH needs the money far more than we realize.... they've spend millions on tooling and probably more into their own Korean production facility.

As far as the general public and the train hobby goes, yes, things are not the same today as years ago. I personally have done far too many train shows and talked to many familes with kids and I know for a fact there is interest in the hobby and interest in trains. There is a definite nostalgia appeal to this hobby. But as noted above, there is the list price factor too... if Mom thinks the trains are too expensive, there's a greater chance they're not going to get bought. And if local shops are folding left and right, then chances are greater that the newcomer isn't going to buy a first train set. The top ten Lionel dealers are all discount mail order businesses for good reason. And truth be told, if those discount mail order places didn't exist, and all Lionel dealers had to sell at full list, Lionel's sales would plummet.

And Neil, in the current Lionel catalog of 2006 offerings, here's a breakdown, not including specialty or licensed items: 3 pages of affordable separate sale steam engines versus 14 pages of high end. A single pages for affordable diesels (with just one road diesel, a snowplow and a trolley) and 11 pages of higher end diesels. Out of a 184 page catalog, there are just 2 pages of introductory priced separate sale starter cars. And yes, there are many train sets this year... a wide variety to be sure, but the big sellers are probably contained to the first few offerings, as these are the ones with the lowest list prices. And probably those top ten mail order discount sellers do a bulk of those sales.

As far as Clyde Coil's comments on the new Big Boy, the reality is those kinds of items are not big money makers and not big sellers. Lionel and MTH closely scrutinize production runs of high end items. Otherwise Lionel would make 10,000 Big Boy's and MTH wouldn't cancel so many items that fail to garnish enough preorders. I think it makes far more sense to put a llittle more effort into affordable technology on items that people will actually buy. The new Big Boy may be the best dang thing Lionel has ever made, but what good does it do the company if only a few hundred people get to experience it?

How many times have you heard about a expensive restaurant that has the best food ever. People tell you "you gotta go there." And probably it does. But it's pricey, so business is marginal and they go under. The popular family restaurant may not have as good food as that expensive one, but given the price, it stays in business and thrives. Or like the automobile industry, it's the expensive luxury cars that get all the press attention, but it is the affordable family economy car with value that win in sales. I may not be running a train company, but it sure does make sense to me that if these companies want to increase the market, that example should be followed.

Unlike the auto industry, people need a car, they don't need a train layout. Though they may want to have a train layout. Trains are discretionary income purchases. If you make decent products that fall within people's discretionary budgets, chances are you will sell more trains... maybe. Which brings us back to marketing, exposure. wholesale distribution and retailing.

And if you think this is moaning, this is NOTHING. Wait until Lionel/MTH lawsuit judgement day... the train forums will ALL have a whole one big load of moaning... stay tuned.