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This technology will end Amtrak and short-haul flights

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Posted by Overmod on Saturday, December 19, 2020 8:45 PM

Backshop
1. I doubt if there were salt trucks available to get ahead of the truck.

That's not the point.  He could pretty easily have stopped long enough to allow the trucks to reach the location and 'sand' ahead of him; this was not a long uncontrolled slide controlled only by exquisite management -- or at least it does not seem so to me.  But don't go by my assumptions; I'm not an OTR driver -- do the experienced drivers on this forum agree or disagree with that interpretation?

That is also the basis for calling it a 'nonevent' -- it was continued only because there was some understanding that getting the truck down off the grade under controlled observation in minimum time was considered important.  Any actual 'danger' other than circumstantial could have been avoided with a controlled stop -- that being part of the skill being demonstrated by the driver in question precisely in keeping the sliding controlled at relatively low speed.

And there is no question the driver was doing 'everything in his power to keep the truck as straight as it was'.  The concern is that the brake arrangement on the truck did not facilitate better control than he had, and there was a patent loss of stability as a result.  A loss of stability that better methods of differential brake modulation and control, including those appropriate to autonomous trucks, would likely have experienced to a much less extreme degree.  Which was, I believe, the major point of the discussion concerning the video and the event.

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Posted by Backshop on Saturday, December 19, 2020 7:56 PM

1. I doubt if there were salt trucks available to get ahead of the truck.

2. Chains are only for drive axles for traction.

3. It's only a "non event" if you're a Monday morning quarterback.

4. I'm sure he was doing everything in his power to keep the truck as straight as      it was.

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Posted by BaltACD on Friday, December 18, 2020 1:08 PM

Overmod
 
Backshop
I doubt he had a change of shorts with him... 

This is almost a non-event, except insofar as he shouldn't have been allowed on that grade with pups in known ice in the first place.  At no time does he appear badly out of control (although of course that's no guarantee he might have progressed into worse in the next few seconds at any particular time we see) 

And he obviously had the option to pull to the side at any point, although I sympathize with the intent to get him off there -- yes, I appreciate the reasons not to leave the truck in such a location.  Why they did not call for trucks to drop salt or calcium chloride in front of him is another mystery.

A proper autonomous truck would have been able to use slightly more braking and antilock modulation on the rear trailer axle than on the front, which would in turn be more than the resultant of any engine and service braking on the tractor drive axle.  That would eliminate any of the effect you see of lateral grade or superelevation sliding the rear trailer out.  Here the driver evidently doesn't have a proper independent trailer-brake controller, let alone a way to modulate both trailers, the tractor brake, and the tractor steering all at once, let alone try to do so continuously with both prediction and situational learning.  (In fact this would be a good application for artificially-intelligent antilock-braking control, but I doubt that would be marketed separate from 'autonomous' control at this point in time...)

Professional drivers: aren't chains mandatory for that location in that weather?  And would they have helped or hindered on icing of that kind?

This has some implications for Templeton the rat's little sleeper cars.  At what point do they 'hole up' for conditions like ice or storms?  What happens if the available charge or shore-power facilities become overused or themselves start to fail due to conditions?  Will there be the 'moral equivalent' of package boilers or mobile generators -- quite possibly involving properly-equipped locomotive consists -- that can be directed ahead of time to potentially affected areas?

As he brought the truck to a stop - it looked like the right rear brakes on the rear trailer were locked and that was what was causing the loss of proper tracking on a low grip driving surface.

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Posted by Overmod on Wednesday, December 16, 2020 3:52 PM

Backshop
I doubt he had a change of shorts with him...

This is almost a non-event, except insofar as he shouldn't have been allowed on that grade with pups in known ice in the first place.  At no time does he appear badly out of control (although of course that's no guarantee he might have progressed into worse in the next few seconds at any particular time we see)

And he obviously had the option to pull to the side at any point, although I sympathize with the intent to get him off there -- yes, I appreciate the reasons not to leave the truck in such a location.  Why they did not call for trucks to drop salt or calcium chloride in front of him is another mystery.

A proper autonomous truck would have been able to use slightly more braking and antilock modulation on the rear trailer axle than on the front, which would in turn be more than the resultant of any engine and service braking on the tractor drive axle.  That would eliminate any of the effect you see of lateral grade or superelevation sliding the rear trailer out.  Here the driver evidently doesn't have a proper independent trailer-brake controller, let alone a way to modulate both trailers, the tractor brake, and the tractor steering all at once, let alone try to do so continuously with both prediction and situational learning.  (In fact this would be a good application for artificially-intelligent antilock-braking control, but I doubt that would be marketed separate from 'autonomous' control at this point in time...)

Professional drivers: aren't chains mandatory for that location in that weather?  And would they have helped or hindered on icing of that kind?

This has some implications for Templeton the rat's little sleeper cars.  At what point do they 'hole up' for conditions like ice or storms?  What happens if the available charge or shore-power facilities become overused or themselves start to fail due to conditions?  Will there be the 'moral equivalent' of package boilers or mobile generators -- quite possibly involving properly-equipped locomotive consists -- that can be directed ahead of time to potentially affected areas?

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Posted by Backshop on Wednesday, December 16, 2020 3:15 PM

Daycab.  I doubt he had a change of shorts with him... Big Smile

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Posted by BaltACD on Wednesday, December 16, 2020 2:30 PM

Overmod
 
Gramp
Can it steer through a skid? 

For many years, better than a human driver. 

Keep in mind that a much more complex skid-control scenario, for OTR trucks, has been under development a very long time.  Multiple-trailer setups that do controlled backup do it in part with controlled differential brakes on both bogie and trailer wheels -- this can also address 'wind dance' for multiples that may build up harmonic oscillations if uncorrected... or that have the wrong interaction between tires and road imperfections.  All these things can be continually monitored and reacted to, with very short latency, very short error correction, but high 'physics prediction' based on other factors, ensuring the best possible mix of quick and correct action.  Skids of various kinds require more complex response, but no faster and not involving dramatic increases in technological cost to implement.

What a human driver can do, for example, with trailer brakes in a tractor skid is greatly limited by comparison.

Of course there will still be plenty of times accidents would be unavoidable to 'recover' from -- by either human or robot driving.  This opens up another concern: anticipation of potential issues, and slowing/redirecting/stopping etc. to keep within the stability envelope.  These were important topics in guided-vehicle design over 70 years ago, and still are part of sensible system design.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kL_IzyZ9d2g

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Posted by Overmod on Wednesday, December 16, 2020 12:34 PM

Gramp
Can it steer through a skid?

For many years, better than a human driver.

Keep in mind that a much more complex skid-control scenario, for OTR trucks, has been under development a very long time.  Multiple-trailer setups that do controlled backup do it in part with controlled differential brakes on both bogie and trailer wheels -- this can also address 'wind dance' for multiples that may build up harmonic oscillations if uncorrected... or that have the wrong interaction between tires and road imperfections.  All these things can be continually monitored and reacted to, with very short latency, very short error correction, but high 'physics prediction' based on other factors, ensuring the best possible mix of quick and correct action.  Skids of various kinds require more complex response, but no faster and not involving dramatic increases in technological cost to implement.

What a human driver can do, for example, with trailer brakes in a tractor skid is greatly limited by comparison.

Of course there will still be plenty of times accidents would be unavoidable to 'recover' from -- by either human or robot driving.  This opens up another concern: anticipation of potential issues, and slowing/redirecting/stopping etc. to keep within the stability envelope.  These were important topics in guided-vehicle design over 70 years ago, and still are part of sensible system design.

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Posted by Gramp on Tuesday, December 15, 2020 8:03 PM

Can it steer through a skid?

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Posted by Paul Milenkovic on Sunday, December 13, 2020 1:36 PM

York1

 

 
oltmannd
I'm not thinking self-driving is coming soon.  I've seen what a Tesla model Y can do.  Impressive, but not anywhere near as savvy as even a 20%ile driver - and then only under ideal conditions.  I can't get Alexa to do what I ask about half the time unless I phrase things exactly the right way.   These things as a backup or aid?  Sure.  On their own while we sleep?  Don't hold your breath.

 

 

I agree.  As impressive as the advancements have been, there is still a ways to go.

I watched a program recently about a company that makes the software for cars to recognize pedestrians standing along the road, and if the pedestrians will start to cross the road in front of the car.  Basically, the software has to be taught to recognize every single "look" of what a pedestrian might look like.  There are still issues.

I have no doubt one day in the future, people will be looking back at us primitive people who actually had to drive a car ourselves.

But I don't think that day is anywhere near.  Since I'm old, I imagine it will be long after I quit thinking (or breathing).

 

Yeah, the "look" from a pedestrian.

I was in Japan visiting Advanced Telecommunications Research (ATR), which is in a rural part of Japan where people drive -- real fast.

My instinctive crossing drill "look left, look right, look left, step out" almost got me killed more than once.

Lefthand side-of-the-road driving.

If GM "killed the electric car", what am I doing standing next to an EV-1, a half a block from the WSOR tracks?

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Posted by Paul Milenkovic on Sunday, December 13, 2020 1:31 PM

Don:

I'm still working on pot-hole recognition.

Along with plastic garbage bin detection when backing from my driveway.

If GM "killed the electric car", what am I doing standing next to an EV-1, a half a block from the WSOR tracks?

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Posted by oltmannd on Sunday, December 13, 2020 1:07 PM

York1

 

 
oltmannd
I'm not thinking self-driving is coming soon.  I've seen what a Tesla model Y can do.  Impressive, but not anywhere near as savvy as even a 20%ile driver - and then only under ideal conditions.  I can't get Alexa to do what I ask about half the time unless I phrase things exactly the right way.   These things as a backup or aid?  Sure.  On their own while we sleep?  Don't hold your breath.

 

 

I agree.  As impressive as the advancements have been, there is still a ways to go.

I watched a program recently about a company that makes the software for cars to recognize pedestrians standing along the road, and if the pedestrians will start to cross the road in front of the car.  Basically, the software has to be taught to recognize every single "look" of what a pedestrian might look like.  There are still issues.

I have no doubt one day in the future, people will be looking back at us primitive people who actually had to drive a car ourselves.

But I don't think that day is anywhere near.  Since I'm old, I imagine it will be long after I quit thinking (or breathing).

 

A few more...

Can it tell a pot hole and avoid it depending on deep it is?  Will it remember where the pot hole is and recognize it getting worse or repaired?

Can it keep out of ruts in the lane to reduce risk of  hydroplaning in the rain?  Will it adjust position in the lane to avoid worn/rough/patched area?  Will it adjust position in the lane to add extra cushion against wildlife on the side of the road?

Teslas can read road signs and adjust speed accordingly, but they don't recognize when school zone limits are not in effect. 

Can it follow temporary lane markers when the originals are poorly marked out in work zones?  Can it decipher a flagman?  

Can it anticipate a large truck making a wide swing on a curve at an urban intersection?

Anybody got any others?

 

-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/

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Posted by York1 on Saturday, December 12, 2020 10:33 AM

oltmannd
I'm not thinking self-driving is coming soon.  I've seen what a Tesla model Y can do.  Impressive, but not anywhere near as savvy as even a 20%ile driver - and then only under ideal conditions.  I can't get Alexa to do what I ask about half the time unless I phrase things exactly the right way.   These things as a backup or aid?  Sure.  On their own while we sleep?  Don't hold your breath.

 

I agree.  As impressive as the advancements have been, there is still a ways to go.

I watched a program recently about a company that makes the software for cars to recognize pedestrians standing along the road, and if the pedestrians will start to cross the road in front of the car.  Basically, the software has to be taught to recognize every single "look" of what a pedestrian might look like.  There are still issues.

I have no doubt one day in the future, people will be looking back at us primitive people who actually had to drive a car ourselves.

But I don't think that day is anywhere near.  Since I'm old, I imagine it will be long after I quit thinking (or breathing).

York1 John       

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Posted by oltmannd on Saturday, December 12, 2020 10:23 AM

oltmannd

I'm not thinking self-driving is coming soon.  I've seen what a Tesla model Y can do.  Impressive, but not anywhere near as savvy as even a 20%ile driver - and then only under ideal conditions.  I can't get Alexa to do what I ask about half the time unless I phrase things exactly the right way.  

These things as a backup or aid?  Sure.  On their own while we sleep?  Don't hold your breath.

 

Me:  "Alexa, can you drive a car?"

Alexa: "That's not one of the things I can do."

Me: "Damn straight!"

 

-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Saturday, December 12, 2020 9:38 AM

This is what Greg Posted:

"ttrraaffiicc has a gloomy chrystal ball.    listing of your posts

  • Huron Central Railway to end operations in December in General Discussion.
  • Intermodal swan song in General Discussion.
  • Goodbye to autoracks? in General Discussion.
  • Put those containers away in General Discussion.
  • CN Leaving Ottawa in General Discussion.
  • Pessimism is the only accurate outlook in General Discussion.
  • Bill Stephens's blog post about History suggests rail traffic won't fully rebound after recession in Observation Tower.
  • The Final Decade in General Discussion.
  • CN is reported to be mothballing the middle portion of the former BCR in General Discussion."

 

 

Others may have made comments that were less specific.   What did you see as personal? 

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Saturday, December 12, 2020 9:04 AM

It means "of an argument or reaction directed against a person rather than the position they are maintaining."

There were no personal attacks on him,  just disagreements with what he stated. 

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Posted by oltmannd on Saturday, December 12, 2020 8:47 AM

I'm not thinking self-driving is coming soon.  I've seen what a Tesla model Y can do.  Impressive, but not anywhere near as savvy as even a 20%ile driver - and then only under ideal conditions.  I can't get Alexa to do what I ask about half the time unless I phrase things exactly the right way.  

These things as a backup or aid?  Sure.  On their own while we sleep?  Don't hold your breath.

-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/

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Posted by Paul Milenkovic on Friday, December 11, 2020 10:24 PM

aegrotatio

Guess you people need to look up what "ad hominem" actually means.

 

 

Isn't "you people" one of those bad phrases?

If GM "killed the electric car", what am I doing standing next to an EV-1, a half a block from the WSOR tracks?

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Posted by aegrotatio on Friday, December 11, 2020 9:56 PM

Guess you people need to look up what "ad hominem" actually means.

 

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Posted by Paul Milenkovic on Friday, December 11, 2020 2:35 PM

charlie hebdo

Au contraire! It nicely summarizes a common theme in those posts.  And it is factual,  not an ad hominem post in the least. 

 

 

I guess that settles it, then.

If GM "killed the electric car", what am I doing standing next to an EV-1, a half a block from the WSOR tracks?

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Friday, December 11, 2020 2:04 PM

Au contraire! It nicely summarizes a common theme in those posts.  And it is factual,  not an ad hominem post in the least. 

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Posted by aegrotatio on Thursday, December 10, 2020 10:06 PM

gregc

ttrraaffiicc has a gloomy chrystal ball.    listing of your posts

  • Huron Central Railway to end operations in December in General Discussion.
  • Intermodal swan song in General Discussion.
  • Goodbye to autoracks? in General Discussion.
  • Put those containers away in General Discussion.
  • CN Leaving Ottawa in General Discussion.
  • Pessimism is the only accurate outlook in General Discussion.
  • Bill Stephens's blog post about History suggests rail traffic won't fully rebound after recession in Observation Tower.
  • The Final Decade in General Discussion.
  • CN is reported to be mothballing the middle portion of the former BCR in General Discussion.

 

 

Ad hominem attack much?

Your post adds no value to this discussion.

 

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Posted by 54light15 on Monday, November 2, 2020 10:07 PM

How efficent will these "sleeper cars" be if they are only suitable for use at night? Do the beds fold up into the walls? Can they be used in daylight? How can someone sleep in them if they work on the night shift and it's sunny outside? Will they have window shades? Cops don't like cars with blacked out windows. If it's a rolling bedroom and a man and woman are in it and nature takes its course, what happens at a toll booth or when a cop pulls you over? So many unanswered questions. Imaginary concepts are like that, I guess. 

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Posted by SD60MAC9500 on Monday, November 2, 2020 9:42 PM
 

ttrraaffiicc

Sleeper cars! No, not as in railway cars, but as in automobiles. Self driven ones. The idea here is that people can travel overnight in a car built as a sleeping compartment. The big draw of these is that they are very energy efficient, have low costs are are individualized taking you from origin to destination. Technology like this has the potential to make short haul flights obsolete because they would be a cheaper, more convenient and pleasent experience compared to a flight. Unfortunately, the same also applies to sleeper trains, with the added bonus that these cars will be faster and require no transfers between pickup and drop off. The page below goes through a detailed analysis of these cars, but needless to say, try to get on an Amtrak train soon. It will probably be rendered obsolete and shut down by the end of the decade.

https://ideas.4brad.com/sleeper-cars

 

Maybe you should post actual operation of these concepts you claim will lay waste to the railway industry. You will have a stronger argument. This sleeper vehicle.. Not only is it redundant. It doesn't slash travel time. People want to travel faster.  Not fall asleep for 8-10 hrs. in a car waking up the next day.. 

Here's a bullet point from your article

  1. Overnight trip to city 250 to 500 miles distant

This range can be covered in 3.5-6.5 hrs. in a car. Flight time from gate to gate with TSA security check point 4 hrs, or less.. This sleeper car concept is dangerous, and not efficient at all.

 

 
 
Rahhhhhhhhh!!!!
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Posted by zugmann on Monday, November 2, 2020 9:28 PM

BaltACD
Maybe you don't want to be treated liked you are a cirminal to pass through TSA Security.

We have to figure out the perfect grope-to-time ratio. 

It's been fun.  But it isn't much fun anymore.   Signing off for now. 


  

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Posted by BaltACD on Monday, November 2, 2020 9:15 PM

zugmann
 
Electroliner 1935
A one hour flight takes about three to four hours portal to portal. 

Ok, so why spend 3-4 hours when you can spend 10?

Maybe you don't want to be treated liked you are a cirminal to pass through TSA Security.

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Posted by zugmann on Monday, November 2, 2020 8:48 PM

Electroliner 1935
A one hour flight takes about three to four hours portal to portal.

Ok, so why spend 3-4 hours when you can spend 10?

It's been fun.  But it isn't much fun anymore.   Signing off for now. 


  

The opinions expressed here represent my own and not those of my employer, any other railroad, company, or person.t fun any

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Posted by Backshop on Monday, November 2, 2020 8:48 PM

Electroliner 1935

 

 
zugmann
Why fly in an hour when you can take a 10 hour car trip? 

 

A one hour flight takes about three to four hours portal to portal.

 

But you still get to sleep in your own bed.  In the OP's scenario, even with the sleeper car, you'd still have to rent another vehicle when you got there.

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Posted by Electroliner 1935 on Monday, November 2, 2020 8:30 PM

zugmann
Why fly in an hour when you can take a 10 hour car trip? 

A one hour flight takes about three to four hours portal to portal.

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Posted by Gramp on Monday, November 2, 2020 2:28 PM

Overmod, it seems to me that the Virgin Hyperloop's real advantage would be in moving palletized freight. Do you think so?  Constructing a true, direct trunk system with less need for a low grade route, impervious to weather, accident, and pilferage, tunneled or elevated as needed?

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