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Why is LD travel declining

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Why is LD travel declining
Posted by blue streak 1 on Tuesday, October 2, 2018 7:34 PM

Here is a OIG report deliniating why Amtrak is loosing LD riders.  Have not found time to read but hope some persons will give their ideas .

https://amtrakoig.gov/sites/default/files/reports/OIG-SP-2018-011%20Management%20Challenges%20FY2019%20and%202020.pdf

 

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Tuesday, October 2, 2018 8:30 PM

blue streak 1

Here is a OIG report deliniating why Amtrak is loosing LD riders.  Have not found time to read but hope some persons will give their ideas .

https://amtrakoig.gov/sites/default/files/reports/OIG-SP-2018-011%20Management%20Challenges%20FY2019%20and%202020.pdf

 

 

The report is about a lot more important matters than losing LD ridership.  For example, on the safety side: "The company has publicly acknowledged that implementing a safety management system is a significant corporate undertaking, and the CSO told us that it would take five years to make an impact. However, the company could encounter challenges sustaining program implementation over the long term, as it has with other safety initiatives. For example, adoption of the system by union employees and their representatives could be a significant challenge to full implementation. The NTSB reported that the unions representing the two employees killed in the 2016 accident in Chester, Pennsylvania, had opted out of the company’s safety programs, which are negotiated as part of employee collective bargaining agreements.4 The NTSB concluded that this situation undermined the effectiveness of the company’s safety efforts."

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Posted by daveklepper on Wednesday, October 3, 2018 8:22 AM

Blue Streak:   Thanks for posting this.  In general, it well defines the issues.  I admit to not having read it thoroughly, skimming it and skipping when sentences seemed to go on about the obvious, such as details where crews conversing with customers did not always meet the needs of those customers.  I think, however, that the report failed to emphasis the importance of lack of freigiht-train track capacity in delays to passenger trains, giving greater emphasis to dispatcher decisions.  I don't believe this emphpasis reflects the truth.  And certainly, the truly miserable on-time performance of long-distance trains, correctly analyzed as to effect in the report, is a major reason for loss of business.

Also, there continues a seeming assumption, that passenger service can at least break-even if not show a profit.

Other than that, a truly terrific report. 

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Posted by BaltACD on Wednesday, October 3, 2018 9:48 AM

charlie hebdo
The NTSB reported that the unions representing the two employees killed in the 2016 accident in Chester, Pennsylvania, had opted out of the company’s safety programs, which are negotiated as part of employee collective bargaining agreements.4 The NTSB concluded that this situation undermined the effectiveness of the company’s safety efforts."

Unions opt out of company safety programs when the Unions have determined that the 'safety program' is only a pair of words.  Unions present genuine safety problems and the company does nothing about them - on a consistant and continuing basis.  When Unions opt out of such programs the term 'Safety Program' is a sham.

Unions and their members are no where near a dumb as management and the OIG give them credit for being.

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Wednesday, October 3, 2018 12:41 PM

BaltACD

 

 
charlie hebdo
The NTSB reported that the unions representing the two employees killed in the 2016 accident in Chester, Pennsylvania, had opted out of the company’s safety programs, which are negotiated as part of employee collective bargaining agreements.4 The NTSB concluded that this situation undermined the effectiveness of the company’s safety efforts."

 

Unions opt out of company safety programs when the Unions have determined that the 'safety program' is only a pair of words.  Unions present genuine safety problems and the company does nothing about them - on a consistant and continuing basis.  When Unions opt out of such programs the term 'Safety Program' is a sham.

Unions and their members are no where near a dumb as management and the OIG give them credit for being.

 

The NTSB also concurred.  Are they also part of a conspiracy against the unions?

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Posted by zugmann on Wednesday, October 3, 2018 4:56 PM

charlie hebdo
The NTSB also concurred. Are they also part of a conspiracy against the unions?

There's a huge difference in agreeing with what a safety program is supposed to be (as the refulators see) and how that program is actually implemented (what the people in the trenches see).  A matter of perspective.   I've seen safety programs completely destroyed, corrupted, and turned into something else entirely.

 

*please pardon the delay due to moderation.

  

The opinions expressed here represent my own and not those of my employer, any other railroad, company, or person.

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Wednesday, October 3, 2018 5:00 PM

Safety record and poor on-time performance are two areas addresed for declining LD ridership. The third is shifting demographics.

"Meeting the needs of younger riders. The company is also attempting to increase ridership in the face of changing demographics. In FY 2017, the company’s ridership was heavily skewed toward older riders. But company research on demographic trends shows that, within 5 years, consumers who are 18 to 34 years old will account for approximately half of all business travel. Meanwhile, business travel by older passengers is expected to drop sharply. Moreover, executives told us that younger passengers do not have the same nostalgia for trains and may not be as interested in long-distance trains as a mode of travel. To grow ridership, particularly on long-distance routes, the company’s service will need to evolve to appeal to this new generation of passengers by accommodating their preferences, according to company officials. For example, company research indicates that younger passengers have a higher desire for comfort and choice during their journeys. Research also indicates that younger travelers generally want fast, accessible, and reliable technology. This includes the ability to use mobile devices to book travel and access to high-speed internet connections onboard. In response, the company recently revamped its mobile booking app and is trying to improve its Wi-Fi service on the NEC. Other initiatives to meet evolving customer demands include offering more options for where and how passengers dine on long-distance trains, and refreshing the food options."

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Posted by MikeF90 on Wednesday, October 3, 2018 6:13 PM

charlie hebdo
The NTSB also concurred. Are they also part of a conspiracy against the unions?

Nah, the NTSB 'rail' side is just inept; they are obsessed with making PTC the cure-all for every deficiency.

OTOH I have a lot of respect for the 'air' side, having worked in aerospace and studiously read their report summaries in Aviation Week. The Smithsonian channel program 'Air Disasters' seems to be inspired by the latter.

Now back to topic ....

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Posted by PJS1 on Wednesday, October 3, 2018 8:30 PM

blue streak 1

Here is a OIG report deliniating why Amtrak is loosing LD riders.  Have not found time to read but hope some persons will give their ideas. 

Here is one reason ridership on the Texas Eagle is likely to decline.  Tonight it is reported to be 5 hrs, 38 minutes late into San Antonio.  Last night it was 2 hrs late.  And this is with a hour a schedule padding between Austin and San Antonio.

It reported to be 6 hrs, 21 minutes late into Austin this evening.  Or should I say tomorrow morning.  Last night it was 2 hrs, 30 minutes late.  

If Amtrak's management had a plan to run off long distance passengers, this would be ideal.

 

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Posted by BaltACD on Wednesday, October 3, 2018 9:54 PM

charlie hebdo
 
BaltACD
 
charlie hebdo
The NTSB reported that the unions representing the two employees killed in the 2016 accident in Chester, Pennsylvania, had opted out of the company’s safety programs, which are negotiated as part of employee collective bargaining agreements.4 The NTSB concluded that this situation undermined the effectiveness of the company’s safety efforts." 

Unions opt out of company safety programs when the Unions have determined that the 'safety program' is only a pair of words.  Unions present genuine safety problems and the company does nothing about them - on a consistant and continuing basis.  When Unions opt out of such programs the term 'Safety Program' is a sham.

Unions and their members are no where near a dumb as management and the OIG give them credit for being. 

The NTSB also concurred.  Are they also part of a conspiracy against the unions?

In reading NTSB reports over the years - they have become progressively more 'political' in their findings as the years have progressed.  They have done a reasonable job of fact finding, however their recommendations have been more and more political statements.

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Posted by SD70Dude on Wednesday, October 3, 2018 10:18 PM

BaltACD
charlie hebdo
BaltACD
charlie hebdo
The NTSB reported that the unions representing the two employees killed in the 2016 accident in Chester, Pennsylvania, had opted out of the company’s safety programs, which are negotiated as part of employee collective bargaining agreements.4 The NTSB concluded that this situation undermined the effectiveness of the company’s safety efforts." 

Unions opt out of company safety programs when the Unions have determined that the 'safety program' is only a pair of words.  Unions present genuine safety problems and the company does nothing about them - on a consistant and continuing basis.  When Unions opt out of such programs the term 'Safety Program' is a sham.

Unions and their members are no where near a dumb as management and the OIG give them credit for being. 

The NTSB also concurred.  Are they also part of a conspiracy against the unions?

In reading NTSB reports over the years - they have become progressively more 'political' in their findings as the years have progressed.  They have done a reasonable job of fact finding, however their recommendations have been more and more political statements.

PTC and inward-facing cameras will solve everything!

In other news, Oceania has always been at war with Eastasia.

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Posted by cx500 on Wednesday, October 3, 2018 10:57 PM

BaltACD
Unions and their members are no where near a dumb as management and the OIG give them credit for being.

The Talgo tragedy on the west coast when viewed superficially is train crew (union) error.  A second look, though, immediately reveals that a fundamental  underlying factor is the seriously deficient amount of route familiarization allowed by management.  That is likely from pressure passed down (implicitly) through several levels of the hierachy.  As Balt indicates, when safety programs are mostly lip service there is little benefit to participating.

Unions are not completely innocent; solving the crew fatigue issue will require both management and union to  compromise.  That will probably have financial effects on both.  As a result nothing of consequence is done.

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Posted by alphas on Wednesday, October 3, 2018 11:00 PM

From talking to fellow senior citizens one reason is the cost of a sleeper vs. the cost of Southwest Airline [or similar] senior fare that gets you there in just a few hours.    [Example: 2 of us are flying non-stop to Ft. Lauderdale and back for $405 with just over 2 hours flying each way.   I can't drive it for that amount counting the 2 motel nights in a round trip].    And they don't want to be spending hours and hours sitting and trying to sleep in coaches.    Another consideration is that those who are scared to fly is a very small number that is getting less and less as the years pass.             

It used to be the choice for those who had to watch the money was between bus or rail.    Nowadays its a choice beteen those 2 and the discount airlines. 

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Posted by Backshop on Thursday, October 4, 2018 12:10 PM

Amtrak is missing the most obvious thing when they say that they want to court the 18-34 business traveler group.  LD train travel is a nonstarter for business travel.  Time is money in business.  Anything over 250 miles and you're on a plane.  Trains are for leisure travel.

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Posted by blue streak 1 on Thursday, October 4, 2018 1:19 PM

Backshop

Amtrak is missing the most obvious thing when they say that they want to court the 18-34 business traveler group.  LD train travel is a nonstarter for business travel.  Time is money in business.  Anything over 250 miles and you're on a plane.  Trains are for leisure travel.

 

 
It may be that the real number is 3 hours or less ?  In our case our business in New Orleans was a 5 hour drive and we began to never take the airplane after having to deal with rental cars.  Time was same either way and cost much less.  Only problem is one of us had to drive and could not do work !  If we could take train any train time over 3 hours would not have been best option !  
If NYPS <> BOS can get to 3 hours  ? ? ?  NOT likely for many years.
Some 3 hour options now aavailable are  PHL / BAL -Richmond, PHL - New Haven, Newark - PVD ( a streach ) .  Then there are all the option connections available at NYPS. PHL - Long Island / Albany, Harrisburgh - BAL /. WASH,  Northern VA- south NEC
 
Since NYPS <> WASH is under Acela 3 hours that may be why the Acelas outshine Airlines.  Now the question is and will be hard to answer. If NEC can get to 2  hours will that impact auto and bus travel.  A study of NY - PHL travel over the years might give us some answers.  A big hit was Amtrak abandoning the Clockers NYP <> PHL .   They might come back when the new North river tunnel bores are in service and present tube refurbished.  Am not holding my breath !
 
In our opinion Amtrak giving up clockers and expecting NJT to run them to  PHL was a mistake.  That appears to have Amtrak giviing too many North River slots to NJT who used them instead of PHL to the other NJ commuter lines. Example mid=town direct.  Any thoughts ?
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Posted by BaltACD on Thursday, October 4, 2018 3:28 PM

Considering the traffic situation on I-95 between DC and Richmond - The services that the State of Virginia has added have out performed their early traffic projections.

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Posted by alphas on Thursday, October 4, 2018 7:57 PM

BaltACD

Considering the traffic situation on I-95 between DC and Richmond - The services that the State of Virginia has added have out performed their early traffic projections.

 I don't think you can consider DC to Richmond a LD service.    That's an example of an available passenger train market.   The big problem for Amtrak is the much longer train ride, especially the over night trips.   

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Posted by Anonymous on Friday, October 5, 2018 3:38 AM

blue streak 1
Since NYPS <> WASH is under Acela 3 hours that may be why the Acelas outshine Airlines. Now the question is and will be hard to answer. If NEC can get to 2 hours will that impact auto and bus travel.

With Acela's 2:58 hours Amtrak should be time competetive with bus (Megabus, between 4:15 and 5:20 hours according to schedule, mostly 4:15) already. Prices are the problem. It is difficult to compete with less than $20.

Private cars have the advantage when you go somewhere other than midtown.

I don't know the costs for driving in the USA and Amtrak's fare structure good enough to make comparison.

Here in Germany train and car are about equal for one person when paying full price. More people make cars more economical. With the best DB budget price even a car with 4 passengers can't compete. We have the same competetion by bus.

I think Acela Express is more for business travellers. Except Amtrak offers heavily discounted fares that are attractive for tourists with the disadvanteges of far ahead booking, reservation for a specific train etc.
Regards, Volker

 

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Posted by PJS1 on Thursday, October 11, 2018 8:26 PM

VOLKER LANDWEHR
 With Acela's 2:58 hours Amtrak should be time competetive with bus ...... Prices are the problem. It is difficult to compete with less than $20.

Private cars have the advantage when you go somewhere other than midtown.

I don't know the costs for driving in the USA and Amtrak's fare structure good enough to make comparison.

Here in Germany train and car are about equal for one person when paying full price. More people make cars more economical. With the best DB budget price even a car with 4 passengers can't compete. We have the same competetion by bus.

I think Acela Express is more for business travellers. Except Amtrak offers heavily discounted fares that are attractive for tourists with the disadvanteges of far ahead booking, reservation for a specific train etc.
Regards, Volker 

According to the American Automobile Association, the average cost per mile for an American personal vehicle in 2017 was 60.8 cents.  This is based on 15,000 miles or 24,000 kilometers per year.
 
Costs vary widely depending on the vehicle.  Annual costs range from $6,354 or 42.4 cents per mile for a small vehicle up to $10,054 or 67.1 cents for a pick-up truck.
 
As a rule, based on my analyses, one can take the train or fly for about what it costs one person to drive, assuming that he can use public transit when he gets to his destination.  But for more than one person, although there are exceptions, driving is more economical. 
 
A big advantage of driving, especially in Texas, is you have your wheels when you get to your destination.  Given the sprawl of Texas' cities, getting around without personal wheels is a real challenge.
 

I have ridden the Acela between New York and Washington three times.  Most of the people in my car appeared to be business people or high level government officials.   On each of the three trips the person sitting next to me was a business person or lawyer that was traveling on business and, therefore, probably was on expense account. 

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Posted by BaltACD on Thursday, October 11, 2018 10:38 PM

In addition to the simple operating costs of a car between DC, NYC and Boston - you have to add in TOLLS.  I-95 operates over multiple toll facilities - Maryland Turnpike, Deleware Turnpike as well as various bridges and tunnels.

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Posted by longhorn1969 on Friday, October 12, 2018 12:40 PM

PJS1

 This.....Today's Eagles in both direction are approaching 4 hours late. One cannot expect passengers to put up with this. I love trains, but I would not subject myself or friends waiting 3-4 hours late trains. 

 
blue streak 1

Here is a OIG report deliniating why Amtrak is loosing LD riders.  Have not found time to read but hope some persons will give their ideas. 

 

Here is one reason ridership on the Texas Eagle is likely to decline.  Tonight it is reported to be 5 hrs, 38 minutes late into San Antonio.  Last night it was 2 hrs late.  And this is with a hour a schedule padding between Austin and San Antonio.

It reported to be 6 hrs, 21 minutes late into Austin this evening.  Or should I say tomorrow morning.  Last night it was 2 hrs, 30 minutes late.  

If Amtrak's management had a plan to run off long distance passengers, this would be ideal.

 

 

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Posted by runnerdude48 on Friday, October 12, 2018 12:50 PM

And don't forget parking. If you drive to New York City and stay in a hotel plan on paying anywhere from $55 to $75 per night for parking. That is with no in and out privileges. Other cities are almost as bad or just about the same. Plus they tack on taxes. About 19% in New York. If you can take advantage of one of Amtrak fares you can save quite abit. I noted a 3 day fare sale offering $39 one way fare from Boston to New York on regional trains. That's $78 round trip, about the same price as one night to park in the hotel garage.  Your car is definitely more convenient but for that price difference I think I can handle traveling on Amtrak's schedule.

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Posted by PJS1 on Friday, October 12, 2018 8:45 PM

runnerdude48

And don't forget parking. If you drive to New York City and stay in a hotel plan on paying anywhere from $55 to $75 per night for parking. 

 

I lived in NYC for eight years.  Even before the Acela, for people in Manhattan traveling to center city Philadelphia or Washington the train was the better option than driving, especially for one person.  But!

For six of the eight years I lived in NYC I called Bay Ridge, Brooklyn home.  Although true Brooklynites not like to admit it, Brooklyn is a NYC borough.  I could jump in the car, cut across Staten Island, and be nearly to Philadelphia before I could have gotten to Penn Station.  Moreover, most times I was headed to a Philly or a Washington suburb, where parking was usually free.  

Contrary to what most New Yorkers believe, the NEC is an American anomaly.  Most of America does not resemble the NEC.  And for most Americans, driving or flying is a better choice than taking the train.  

Cars and planes won out over trains for a good reason.  They are better  technologies.  Trains are a good choice in relatively short, high density corridors, like the NEC, LAX to San Diego, etc.  

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Posted by CMStPnP on Saturday, October 13, 2018 5:32 AM

Backshop
Amtrak is missing the most obvious thing when they say that they want to court the 18-34 business traveler group.  LD train travel is a nonstarter for business travel.  Time is money in business.  Anything over 250 miles and you're on a plane.  Trains are for leisure travel.

Not exactly true.   I am a business traveler and I would use Amtrak LD if they have the schedule.   You will find the same true of Business Travelers in Europe in some cases.

I don't know how expense reimbursement works in Europe but it is a big obstacle in the United States for using Amtrak beyond corridor services.   The challenge is more getting Amtrak LD to pass on a expense report more than it is lack of demand.     The issue is most companies will not reimburse Amtrak LD unless you can prove via the Travel Agency that the Amtrak choice was cheaper than the alternative of Air Transport OR using Amtrak was a necessity due to time and available flight schedules.     Both are a large hurdle to overcome in the United States.

As I told my boss at work though.    If Amtrak institutes a Dallas to Kansas City overnight sleeper service.    I am going to use it to commute on some business trips.    He is OK with it based on the caveat I use the travel agency to determine what the cost otherwise would have been via Air so that is subtracted and reimbursed and I pay the above air costs.    Cool beans with me.      Most business travelers will not pay out of their own pocket so that latter part will get them to make another choice.   So the only way you will see a Business Traveler on an overnight train is if Amtrak can get the costs down.   

The costs of taking the train used to be cheaper than they are now because the alternatives were at one point more expensive and not as schedule convienent.    As I stated in a past thread, when my Father was on the earth he used the Milwaukee Road Southwest Limited from Milwaukee to Kansas City on more than one trip in the 1950's because he was reimbursed for it.    Milwaukee's accomodations were overnight and cheaper than flying at the time.  Though he complained about how long the Milwaukee took to get to Kansas City versus other routes.   I believe he said the schedule was very convienent and that is why his firm Arthur Anderson chose it.    Departed Milwaukee around Dinner time and you arrived in Kansas City prior or around Breakfest but before the start of the business day and KC Union Station was right near where he was working on a project.   I think he rode in a special long distance coach vs sleeper though as he mentioned he had to "freshen up" in Kansas City after arrival (ie: change clothes and shower).    Back then the flights to Kansas City from Milwaukee were very expensive and I am not sure what the flight schedule was, if there were any flights to KC from Milwaukee direct.

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Posted by CMStPnP on Saturday, October 13, 2018 5:42 AM

PJS1
Most of America does not resemble the NEC.  And for most Americans, driving or flying is a better choice than taking the train.  

I suspect that is changing.   The rise of shared ride service has led to a lot of families no longer buying that second automobile (Big Three sales and production stats will point to this).   Guess what happens without the second automobile?    The choice of using the automobile for longer distance travel declines as it is no longer available.   It's going to mean more people flying and taking those corridor trains at least every once in a while vs. not at all.

Seeing it happen in Wisconsin with Milwaukee to Chicago Amtrak service.   More and more folks are either taking Uber to the station and riding the train in or parking their cars at the station.    It will be interesting to see what happens when the frequency of trains jumps to 10 each way from the current 7 and then through in a new "West Milwaukee"  Amtrak station along with a second Twin Cities train.   Now part of  it is the massive increase in residential apartments in and around the Milwaukee Amtrak station which is increasing population density but not all of the ridership increase is attributable to that.

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Posted by Backshop on Saturday, October 13, 2018 7:49 AM

Big 3 production figures mean nothing.  They are concentrating on the truck and SUV market, especially Ford and Chrysler.  Look at the production figures of the Japanese and Korean companies.  Families still have 2-3 vehicles.

PS CMStPnP--one business traveler willing to pay out of pocket to take the train is an anomaly, not a trend.  Besides, the chances of Amtrak instituting a Dallas-Kansas City train are infintesimal, so your point is moot.

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Posted by BaltACD on Saturday, October 13, 2018 8:13 AM

Backshop
PS CMStPnP--one business traveler willing to pay out of pocket to take the train is an anomaly, not a trend.  Besides, the chances of Amtrak instituting a Dallas-Kansas City train are infintesimal, so your point is moot.

Business travelers are on expense account - they don't pay out of their own pocket.  There are corridors where trains are faster and more convient than most any other form of transportation.

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Posted by Backshop on Saturday, October 13, 2018 8:26 AM

BaltACD

 

 
Backshop
PS CMStPnP--one business traveler willing to pay out of pocket to take the train is an anomaly, not a trend.  Besides, the chances of Amtrak instituting a Dallas-Kansas City train are infintesimal, so your point is moot.

 

Business travelers are on expense account - they don't pay out of their own pocket.  There are corridors where trains are faster and more convient than most any other form of transportation.

 

Expense accounts aren't what they used to be.  You have to take the cheapest/most convenient option.  Maybe you should read what I was replying to where he stated that he would have to pay for any fare amount above what airfare would cost.

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Posted by Anonymous on Saturday, October 13, 2018 8:47 AM

PJS1
Cars and planes won out over trains for a good reason. They are better technologies.

I agree with your first sentence. But better technology? That is a question of definition. The planes won over long distances because they are much faster than trains and cars because they were comfortable and allowed individual travel planning.

Prices I can't compare.

PJS1
But trains are a good choice in relatively short, high density corridors, like the NEC, LAX to San Diego, etc.

Here trains can be faster, more comfortable in corridors and even with diesel traction more ecological than other modes of transportation.
Regards, Volker

 

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Posted by Anonymous on Saturday, October 13, 2018 9:38 AM

CMStPnP
You will find the same true of Business Travelers in Europe in some cases.

It is difficult to compare Amtrak's LD trains to the European situation. In many cases international business travel within Europe is still by plain. Only where real high-speed service is provided like Cologne - Brusselles - Paris, Amsterdam NL - Paris, Stuttgart - Paris, to name a few, rail is competetive.

Of German domestic relations only few favor air travel. Here is a map with the international airports that are the only ones providing regular domestic service:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/dd/Vergleich_Flughafen_Deutschland.png

The distance between Hamburg and Munich is about 380 miles as the crow fies.

Here is a map with cities with more than 100,000 inhabitants: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/ba/Gro%C3%9Fst%C3%A4dte_historisch.png

And here Germany's passenger rail network: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/73/Bahn-Streckenkarte_Deutschland-06-2010.png

Red: ICE-trains; Blue: IC/EC trains (locomotive pulled trains, 125 mph); Grey: other passenger trains

Compared to the NEC (457 miles) the relation Hamburg to Munich (about 450 miles by train) is a corridor train, not a LD train. So we have more or less corridor service in Germany.

CMStPnP
I don't know how expense reimbursement works in Europe but it is a big obstacle in the United States for using Amtrak beyond corridor services.

It is as difficult here in Europe. You need to take the cheapest mode of transportation with some limitations. Depending on salary some are entitled to train 1. class or business class on air travel. As short term reservations are necessary the cheapest fares seldom apply. Sometimes you are provided with a rental car.

Getting to suburbs is mostly not a problem. Sometimes there is public transport or you take a taxi which is paid by the company.
Regards, Volker

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