schlimm JPS1 Data regarding revenues, costs, etc., as well as ridership numbers, are available in the August Monthly Operating Report. Waiting until the September 2016 numbers have been published is a better option. They include one full turn of the annual business cycle, which tends to smooth the impact of seasonal swings. Before drawing any hard conclusions about the Silver Star experiment, it would be better to have several years of data for trending purposes.
JPS1 Data regarding revenues, costs, etc., as well as ridership numbers, are available in the August Monthly Operating Report. Waiting until the September 2016 numbers have been published is a better option. They include one full turn of the annual business cycle, which tends to smooth the impact of seasonal swings. Before drawing any hard conclusions about the Silver Star experiment, it would be better to have several years of data for trending purposes.
Before drawing any hard conclusions about the Silver Star experiment, it would be better to have several years of data for trending purposes.
Rio Grande Valley, CFI,CFII
We still do not have any idea what real sleeper ridership will be if there were enough sleepers.. The difference Meteor / Star for a sleeper roomette tomorrow is $132 NYP - MIA.Taking the August monthly report and multiplying by numer of August Star riders the revenue difference would only be ~$2,000. Year over Year. But Star ridership this august was down %.5%. Meteor down 1.3%. Meteor revenue was up 6.3% but Star down 1.8%.
The number of riders on the Meteor was ~ 19% higher than the STar. A wild guess would indicate that the Star's sleeper passenger traveled further. But what it all means ? Have no idea.
Amtrak has refused to disclose Revenue passenger miles for each train. But it does give total system is ~1% less than last year. Revenue is ~1.2% greater but that does not break out sleepers.
Meteor and Sar had 3 sleepers each and Crescent had 2. As you can guess Crescent sleeper ridership and revenuee were each ~ 33% less.
Now once again if during the heavy travel times on certain trains Amtrak could run 4 - 7 sleepers on those trains would that be enough F&B revenue to make diners get close to break even ? Inquiring minds ?
The Crescent which only had 2 sleepers
True. However, in businesses that attempt to be more attuned to change, two years leaves you behind the switch.
C&NW, CA&E, MILW, CGW and IC fan
To make a valid conclusion, if someone (us, Amtrak?) added the passenger ridership from both Silver Service trains during the relevant 11-month period and compared with the prior 11-month period, then we would know if the total passenger load is the same, more or less, with less revenue but lower food service costs, i.e., the net change.
I Do not know what the demand is. It appears that that even Amtrak has no idea. Unless Amtrak can get the V-2 sleepers in service they may never know and that may not tell if all sleepers fill up ? Demand pricing makes it very difficult to find the revenue / ridership balance point(s).
One item for the Meteor if Amtrak could operate 4-6 sleepers it could support the diners by adding 1 - 3 dining staff.
dakotafred Hmm. I wonder how many -- or few -- dollars were knocked off sleeper fares, and if these really accounted for the reported increased ridership
Hmm. I wonder how many -- or few -- dollars were knocked off sleeper fares, and if these really accounted for the reported increased ridership
BaltACDOn I-95 count the NY, Ontario and Quebec license plates headed South in Dec. Jan. and Feb. then coming North in late March & April.
Might also add that a good portion of the population in Southern Florida has their second home there and the traffic is not only within the United States it is International. When my Parents had a home North of Naples (Bonita Springs) their next door neighbor was from the UK, the neighbor across the street from Brazil. Gemans have second homes in the subdivision as well.
blue streak 1EDIT this demand does seem to be in high season for Florida trains ?? But what are the high seasons anymore.? historic legacy RR results cannot apply due to the Fl growth both population and tourist
How do you know demand numbers?
Winter is still more popular than summer. Just check hotel rates.
blue streak 1 EDIT this demand does seem to be in high season for Florida trains ?? But what are the high seasons anymore.? historic legacy RR results cannot apply due to the Fl growth both population and tourist
EDIT this demand does seem to be in high season for Florida trains ?? But what are the high seasons anymore.? historic legacy RR results cannot apply due to the Fl growth both population and tourist
On I-95 count the NY, Ontario and Quebec license plates headed South in Dec. Jan. and Feb. then coming North in late March & April.
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
schlimm You can see the trend is tapering off more recently. It will be interesting to see what Sept. numbers look like. Sleeper Class only FY 2016 FY 2015 % Change Aug. Silver Star 3,175 3,359 -5.5% Jul. Silver Star 3,573 3,516 +1.6 Jun Silver Star 3,274 2,637 + 24.2 May Silver Star 3,033 2,296 +32.1
You can see the trend is tapering off more recently. It will be interesting to see what Sept. numbers look like.
Sleeper Class only
FY 2016 FY 2015 % Change
Aug. Silver Star 3,175 3,359 -5.5%
Jul. Silver Star 3,573 3,516 +1.6
Jun Silver Star 3,274 2,637 + 24.2
May Silver Star 3,033 2,296 +32.1
Some who has tracked Silver service consists please comment. I
Did the Star start 3 sleepers in july of 2015? and start three at least in May 2016.? If so the numbers seem to indicate that the Star's increase is just demand meeting supply? Not supply meeting demand ? As stated before by others sleeper demand seems to not be not yet met until the additional V-2 sleepers yet to enter service ?
Meteor sleeper demand also seems to exceed supply so how can we make any conclusions ?
JPS1JPS1 wrote the following post 2 hours ago: Amtrak's claim that sleeper class ridership on the Silver Star increased 21 per cent covered the first seven months of the experiment. The information can be found on Pg. 8 of the 2015 Annual Report.
It would be better if the report stated which month the experiment began.
Amtrak's claim that sleeper class ridership on the Silver Star increased 21 per cent covered the first seven months of the experiment. The information can be found on Pg. 8 of the 2015 Annual Report.
Reference to the 2015 Annual Report, as well as the fact that the period covered was the first seven months of the experiment, are stated clearly.
Presumably your confusing me with a previous participant. Speculation without veiifiable evidence is unwarranted.
Coke is even more popular in the south all the way to Texas.
One thing I noticed on the menus, the price of "premium spirits" is different if you travel on the Silver Star versus the City of New Orleans.
You would think they would simplify and have one price across the system nationwide but apparently it is a full dollar cheaper to stock the City of New Orleans with Liquor bottles than it is the Silver Star with the same.......and they would rather pass on the price break to folks in Chicago and New Orleans. That's really nice of Amtrak given they are losing horrendous amounts of money on food service already.
Also I noticed they are selling Pepsi Products which everyone knows Coke sells much better by now in the United States in cafe, restaurant and bar settings. So another marketing loss there.
Update, using this data set. Page A-3.5
August FY 2016 FY 2015
Silver Star 3,175 3,359 -5.5%
Silver Meteor 3,778 3,827 -1.3
October-August…
Silver Star 32,945 30,073 +9.6%
Silver Meteor 38,944 40,441 -3.7
So it covers a longer (11 months) period, which trends in the same direction as sam1's post, though with less than half the magnitude of change.
I did find this. As you can see below, it is for the entire 2015 year, not only the seven months of the Star experiment in dropping the diner. So I still do not know where sam1 got the data cited.
[from page 2/2 of the linked report from Amtrak]
Amtrak Fiscal Year 2015 Ridership (10/01/14-9/30/15)
FY 2015 FY 2014
Silver Star 383,347 405,695 -5.5%
Silver Meteor 346,097 348,581 -0.7%
Obviously, these numbers do not show what sam1 said, but it is a different set of data (all riders vs sleeper only) over a different period (12 months vs 7).
Perhaps sam1 can provide the actual numbers used to show the 21% gain in ridership? Earlier he complained at having to read a short report, preferring a summary. I prefer the data so I can see if they support somone else's conclusions or not. An example of the different styles/preferences of empiricism vs accounting/business?
RME schlimm The Meteor's numbers are also available [though apparently NOT in the 2015 Annual Report, as JBS1 inaccurately stated]. The comparison of conditions A and B with no other variables confounding suffices. Can you, or someone else who understands the numbers, post a two- to four-line summary of the numbers for the Star and the Meteor that shows the 'condition A and B' clearly in one place? It would greatly further this discussion. Pavane indeed. More like a gavotte. Please explain. I thought a gavotte was a sprightly dance, the equivalent here of a rush to implement exciting new half-baked schemes (perhaps including fountain drinks?). Whereas the pavane is a stately pace, adherent to a set of arbitrary rules, culminating in a prearranged conclusion. Or at least so I meant by it.
schlimm The Meteor's numbers are also available [though apparently NOT in the 2015 Annual Report, as JBS1 inaccurately stated]. The comparison of conditions A and B with no other variables confounding suffices.
Can you, or someone else who understands the numbers, post a two- to four-line summary of the numbers for the Star and the Meteor that shows the 'condition A and B' clearly in one place? It would greatly further this discussion.
Pavane indeed. More like a gavotte.
Please explain. I thought a gavotte was a sprightly dance, the equivalent here of a rush to implement exciting new half-baked schemes (perhaps including fountain drinks?). Whereas the pavane is a stately pace, adherent to a set of arbitrary rules, culminating in a prearranged conclusion. Or at least so I meant by it.
1. If I can find the source for the numbers JBS1 cited, I would cite and if needed, summarize. So far, no dice.
2. Gavotte/pavanne? Not to be taken literally. Just joking about your rather obscure, archaic metaphoric reference.
schlimmThe Meteor's numbers are also available [though apparently NOT in the 2015 Annual Report, as JBS1 inaccurately stated]. The comparison of conditions A and B with no other variables confounding suffices.
RME dakotafred As for the possibility of this contagion spreading to other LD trains ... "interesting" does not begin to describe it. It occurs to me that there may be independent confirmation of the effect on some of those "Amtrak Sucks" complaint websites (where I've read plenty of diner-service horror stories). If I recall, some of this 'experiment' involved watching what happened to the Meteor's patronage, as it constituted a kind of 'control experiment' and potential place where disgruntled diner customers might turn. Are there detailed statistics that show what happened on that train? (Putting on my devil's-advocate horns, I think Amtrak might try putting full diner back on the Star and try 'dinerless' on the Meteor, and see if the reported advantages follow the dependent variable... I continue to think this is the same kind of "rigged" pavane involved in the eventual trail conversion of the eastern end of the old Maybrook line to a trail. First we denonstrate some "gain" from removing full diners on one train, then -- still experimenting, mind you -- we convert others and watch the effect. (Perhaps converting just those trains that use one of the historical commissaries, so you can close it forever and reassign or get rid of the staff, and all the ongoing union liabilities, etc., that go along with it.) Eventually, you have all the diners converted (perhaps expanding the 'new' hot-food model to them) and all the old service personnel for them 'rightsized' (what a fortuitous word for the phenomenon!) Now quietly establish bids for privatized diner service, in key experimental corridors, now that you've demonstrated a sound business case for eliminating having to provide food service on Amtrak's own money... and gotten rid of many of the overhead costs and many of the potentially-onerous government restrictions and brotherhood complaints that would otherwise follow. There is something important that has changed in the meantime, though: I don't think Wick is cold-blooded enough to do things that way. It may be that he gets ruined the way Christie Todd Whitman got ruined, by having to do impossible and principle-threatening things in a wretched political environment. But he may also get things turned around in a more Claytoresque atmosphere of inspired 'mass positive attitude'. I wondered years ago whether a 'voucher system' like that proposed for public education could be tried as an experiment. There, you'd have a coupon issued for each meal on the train 'included in the price', which you'd turn in with your check. This would have some other meaningful value for other services on the train (or in stations) and ideally would come to have (through organized efforts and programs, and appeals to private interests) additional value in other places. You could then track two things: the actual 'take rate' broken down by individual meals (or other pertinent conditions, once the system had run for a while), and the perceived opportunity cost of a full-service meal. By looking at the number of vouchers cashed in, you could get some idea about normal commissary stocking and other things. I'm not fully serious about implementing such a thing now, but it remains perhaps an interesting idea to modify and adapt.
dakotafred As for the possibility of this contagion spreading to other LD trains ... "interesting" does not begin to describe it.
It occurs to me that there may be independent confirmation of the effect on some of those "Amtrak Sucks" complaint websites (where I've read plenty of diner-service horror stories).
If I recall, some of this 'experiment' involved watching what happened to the Meteor's patronage, as it constituted a kind of 'control experiment' and potential place where disgruntled diner customers might turn. Are there detailed statistics that show what happened on that train? (Putting on my devil's-advocate horns, I think Amtrak might try putting full diner back on the Star and try 'dinerless' on the Meteor, and see if the reported advantages follow the dependent variable...
I continue to think this is the same kind of "rigged" pavane involved in the eventual trail conversion of the eastern end of the old Maybrook line to a trail. First we denonstrate some "gain" from removing full diners on one train, then -- still experimenting, mind you -- we convert others and watch the effect. (Perhaps converting just those trains that use one of the historical commissaries, so you can close it forever and reassign or get rid of the staff, and all the ongoing union liabilities, etc., that go along with it.) Eventually, you have all the diners converted (perhaps expanding the 'new' hot-food model to them) and all the old service personnel for them 'rightsized' (what a fortuitous word for the phenomenon!)
Now quietly establish bids for privatized diner service, in key experimental corridors, now that you've demonstrated a sound business case for eliminating having to provide food service on Amtrak's own money... and gotten rid of many of the overhead costs and many of the potentially-onerous government restrictions and brotherhood complaints that would otherwise follow.
There is something important that has changed in the meantime, though: I don't think Wick is cold-blooded enough to do things that way. It may be that he gets ruined the way Christie Todd Whitman got ruined, by having to do impossible and principle-threatening things in a wretched political environment. But he may also get things turned around in a more Claytoresque atmosphere of inspired 'mass positive attitude'.
I wondered years ago whether a 'voucher system' like that proposed for public education could be tried as an experiment. There, you'd have a coupon issued for each meal on the train 'included in the price', which you'd turn in with your check. This would have some other meaningful value for other services on the train (or in stations) and ideally would come to have (through organized efforts and programs, and appeals to private interests) additional value in other places. You could then track two things: the actual 'take rate' broken down by individual meals (or other pertinent conditions, once the system had run for a while), and the perceived opportunity cost of a full-service meal. By looking at the number of vouchers cashed in, you could get some idea about normal commissary stocking and other things. I'm not fully serious about implementing such a thing now, but it remains perhaps an interesting idea to modify and adapt.
A lot of words to avoid dealing squarely with pretty clear numbers. The Silver Star experiment does not require switching with the Meteor to preserve empirical rigor. The Meteor's numbers are also available [though apparently NOT in the 2015 Annual Report, as JBS1 inaccurately stated]. The comparison of conditions A and B with no other variables confounding suffices.
dakotafredAs for the possibility of this contagion spreading to other LD trains ... "interesting" does not begin to describe it.
dakotafred Hmm. I wonder how many -- or few -- dollars were knocked off sleeper fares, and if these really accounted for the reported increased ridership, or if something else may have been at work. Similarly with the "positive customer feedback," which is in the eye of the Amtrak beholder. It doesn't take much encouragement to support you in doing what you've made up your mind to do anyway. As for the possibility of this contagion spreading to other LD trains ... "interesting" does not begin to describe it.
Hmm. I wonder how many -- or few -- dollars were knocked off sleeper fares, and if these really accounted for the reported increased ridership, or if something else may have been at work.
Similarly with the "positive customer feedback," which is in the eye of the Amtrak beholder. It doesn't take much encouragement to support you in doing what you've made up your mind to do anyway.
As for the possibility of this contagion spreading to other LD trains ... "interesting" does not begin to describe it.
Bottom line is the occupancy rate in sleepers increased 21% after dropping the dining car. Probably the fare was lowered to reflect its no longer including the mandatory meals. That certainly suggests that people, given the free choice, opt out of a dining car service.
"Positive feedback" is likely based on the routine customer service surveys Amtrak uses. But it sounds like you think that is "rigged" in favor of Amtrak's position.
According to Amtrak's 2015 Annual Report, which was released recently, sleeping car occupancy on the Silver Star increased 21 per cent during the first seven months the train operted without a dining car.
New riders as well as riders upgrading to sleeper class from coach class were the sources for the increase in sleeper class occupancy on the Star.
".....Due to positive customer feedback about the lower pricing structure, the dining car was permanently removed from the Silver Star."
It will be interesting to see if Amtrak management removes the dining car from other long distance trains.
Don Brewer has graciously allowed me to share from Facebook this first-hand report on the new menu as he experienced it on the CARDINAL.
Carl, the food was actually pretty good; no plastic wrap to remove - it was served ready-to-eat, and we had real silverware. There were two crew on both #50 and 51 (we rode both), but their responsibilities didn't seem to overlap much. One was primarily the server for the diner half (the one who interacted the most with us), and the other ran the counter and carry-out function at the lounge side, from what I could see. It is possible that the one person staying behind the counter might have been helping with prepping orders for the diner, but it was hard to tell from my vantage point - keep in mind that much of the new product is pre-packaged and ready to micro-wave, airline-style. There were differences between our westbound experience and the eastbound train. The server on #50 had a lot of years' seniority and experience on the line, and it showed positively in her organization and efficiency. As I mentioned earlier on in the thread, the flowers making their appearance in the diner were her initiative and personal investment, and, again, as I'd noted previously, this had come to the attention of the passenger service manager at Chicago and received his approval. Her colleague on #51 was friendly and enthusiastic, but younger and not having the benefit yet of all the experience she had, and wait times were correspondingly longer. And, no flowers on 51. Areas that could have used improvement were upping provisioning to reduce likelihood of running out of menu items - we experienced this both ways, and overall consistency of passenger experience westbound and eastbound, that "C" word. It's obviously not possible to staff every train running in both directions with the same crew, so there's a need to make sure each and every OBS crew receives the same training and support, and that exemplary employee initiative and creativity like the flowers effort gets translated into standard operating procedure in a re-vitalized corporate service culture. - Just my thoughts.
schlimm CMStPnP On another food service note, it really amazed me that Food Service when it existed on the Chicago-Milwaukee Corridor lost over $350,000 a year but then I learned the staffing was several $35-40,000 a year persons pushing a cart selling .75 cent to $1 candy bars mostly. Really you have to be brain dead to set something like that up for a 90 minute train ride...........that was a license to loose money and screw Wisconsin Taxpayers. That was at least one wise decision by IL DOT, to NOT subsidize food service on the Hiawathas. Illinois does, of course, pay its share of the subsidy for the train. In 1967, I recall riding the overnight NYC to Montreal train (NYC-D&H). Various guys would come through the coaches during the night pitching (in a loud voice) "Fresca, candy, snacks!" I imagine they were outside contractors.
CMStPnP On another food service note, it really amazed me that Food Service when it existed on the Chicago-Milwaukee Corridor lost over $350,000 a year but then I learned the staffing was several $35-40,000 a year persons pushing a cart selling .75 cent to $1 candy bars mostly. Really you have to be brain dead to set something like that up for a 90 minute train ride...........that was a license to loose money and screw Wisconsin Taxpayers.
That was at least one wise decision by IL DOT, to NOT subsidize food service on the Hiawathas. Illinois does, of course, pay its share of the subsidy for the train.
In 1967, I recall riding the overnight NYC to Montreal train (NYC-D&H). Various guys would come through the coaches during the night pitching (in a loud voice) "Fresca, candy, snacks!" I imagine they were outside contractors.
Johnny
RMERME wrote the following post an hour ago: schlimm Patrons often seemed involved with the crystal meth trade. You mean they looked like this?
Pretty much. The two times I ate in two different Waffle Houses, the food was consistently bad. The wait staff in one was "friendly" enough, but clueless.
CMStPnPOn another food service note, it really amazed me that Food Service when it existed on the Chicago-Milwaukee Corridor lost over $350,000 a year but then I learned the staffing was several $35-40,000 a year persons pushing a cart selling .75 cent to $1 candy bars mostly. Really you have to be brain dead to set something like that up for a 90 minute train ride...........that was a license to loose money and screw Wisconsin Taxpayers.
schlimmPatrons often seemed involved with the crystal meth trade.
You mean they looked like this?
For the record, Waffle House is in the Family Dining category, not 'fast food'; their emphasis is on sit-down dining (and possible "proof" of this is that their takeout operations are slipshod and poorly-thought-out, whereas any sane fast-food operator prioritizes most aspects of takeout, from delivered speed to packaging).
They are certainly not in the Fast Casual segment, although some aspects of their operational 'model' might be made to work (how many "fast-food" places 'specialize' in large steaks?) with more attention to staff quality, facility maintenance, and ... all the other places Waffle Houses tend to make quality-assurance nuts like me nervous. Their prices are certainly not what I'd expect from something in the fast food segment, especially given the general quality and food cost of much of what is served, and (again not to be Scrooge) I don't expect table service from waitresses who need tips to make minimum wage as part of a fast-food scenario.
Let me be clear that I was not, and am not, suggesting that Waffle House outsource anything to Amtrak, even if some aspects of its 'official practice' (e.g. maintaining consistent perceived brand quality across its different regions) would facilitate one of the few "national" common dining experiences that would make sense for food service that can take advantage of regional specialties). I'm just noting that some of the actual operational practices the chain uses might be beneficial tools or operating philosophies for whatever people (and note that I don't say 'entities') Amtrak does wind up using.
I do also agree that a great deal of the knowledge from successful fast casual is of great value and great significance to Amtrak (whether in 'Mica economy mode' or not!) and that is one reason I read all of CMStP&P's posts with such interest. I enjoy professionals who demonstrate professional discipline...
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