AMTRAK June 2010 Performance

[blue streak 1]

June 2010 Amtrak Stats are now available

As usual most comparisons will be FY 2010 first vs. FY 2009. Several errors were found in May report and have tried to fix same. Have mostly rounded figures to nearest million

Operations only Revenues up $15M over budget, ticket revenue up $17M. Expenses $12M over budget however $7M of those expenses were for early equipment terminations and better on time by RRs  YTD Rev $80.3M up over budget. Exp $20M over budget including $13M for better OT. Month net loss $2.3M.  Net loss for FY $60M. Forecast FY loss $5.1M compared to May’s forecast of42.5M projects are ahead of spending. FY 2010 forecast is $98M more vs. April’s $122.3M less than budget. The reason may be increases in reprogramming ( ? not explained). Train miles up 1% from 2009 (Lynchburg ?). Available seat miles were up 3% from 2009 so there were some longer trains again this month. Revenue Pass miles up 10.3%.(great -  May up 10%) Load factor 57.5% up 4% from 2009 ( This gets load factor at 50% for year.  Locos out of service 16.8% - 6.3% better than 09. Pass fleet 10.7 vs May’s 10.4% OOS 2.1% better than 09. ( reliability starting to trend but will look for trends later this year also same as Apr)(Note overhauls costing more than budget see below).

Again Diesel Gallons per mile 2.3 vs. 2.3 budget and 2.3 in 2009. Note By table below average train is longer. Seat miles = SM, Train miles = TM, Average seats per train SM/TM = TRS, Gallons per mile =  GM, SM/G = seat miles per gallon, Passenger Miles = PM, Trip length PM/TM = TL.

 

                      SM  000s        TM    TRS     GM    SM/G    PM 000s   TL           

FY 2008      11,800,602   37,324    316     2.4      131   6,159,689   165

FY 2009      11,909,350   37,301    319     2.4      133   5,897,441   158

Mo 2009      1,010,551      3080     324     2.3      140     539,153    175

2010 YTD     9,145,727    27,889    327     2.3      142   4,578,295   164

Jn Month      1,045,901      3118    335     2.3      145     600,992    192

An average passenger trip up 17 miles (suspect that is from the much higher LD travelers & Pass up 9.3% from last year.

Segments            Revenue              riders                    comments

Total                     +17%                    +9.3%   

Acela                    +16                       +11                       NH-BOS in service good figures

NEC Regional     +12.3                    +3.4                     

Short Dist            +19                       +12                       longer dist per pass

Long Dist             +21                       +11       

 Now for short dist rout summaries.

Lynchburg           $687K                   11,594 pass         pass 135% over budget Rev +119% over

Newport News   2341K                   45K P                    Only route better than Lynchburg/train

Carolinian            1.7M                     27K P                   Includes NEC trips and 2 above do not

                              +22%                    +8%                     must be longer trips on train again

Most improved Short Dist Pass from 2009 were piedmont (15,426) 193% ( 2^nd train tripled passengers but 15K passengers still only 140/tr  vs 86/tr 2009) next best Vermonter with (129/tr)35% more passengers than 2009;  Only SD in minus column were , Pennsylvanian (2^nd mo),  Pere M.

Long distance

Sunset                  Rev  +39%           Pass       +25%    (2^nd mo in row)  ; City NO +21%

Palmetto             +29                       +18%                    Avg Pass traveled a lot further like Carolinian

Eagle                    Rev +29%            Pass +17%           Something happening here and on Sunset

May 2010 Long Distance trains south towards Florida (SS, SM, Palmetto, Auto Tr) ,  carried 26.5% of all long distance passengers and 32% of revenue. June 2010 Long Distance trains south towards Florida carried 24.5% of all long distance passengers and 35.8% of revenue. Factor in the Carolinian and Newport news by adding their figures into long distance trains and the figure would go to 35% passengers and 33.8% of revenue. It again appears to this poster that maybe more emphasis needs to be placed on improving Carolina/Florida service (certainly appears there is potential). Carolinian On time abysymal. Overall LD passengers up 10.5% and revenue up 18.6%.  More passengers traveling longer distances.

 Sleepers

Ridership up 20% + for Cal Z, SW limited, Eagle, Sunset, Empire. Revenue up over 20% for those and Starlight and Lakeshore with Sunset up a whopping 37% (could it be because Sunset tickets are slightly less than Eagle tickets on same segments? Total ridership +11% & Revenue +18.8 (traveling longer distances?)

Capital spending:

The normal budget (proposed before any ARRA or Tiger proposals) capital spending is still very much behind schedule. Engineering of $242M is $137M behind with big items bridges, various CAT items $52M, Track renewal 6M, ADA compliance 86M. Ahead of schedule exceptions are CETA, rail, track geometry.  Projections have ADA compliance $112M below 118M authorized. May be ADA was transferred to ARRA? Year projections of overage payments will be CETA 7M, Rail 7M,

Pass equipment has spent 84.2M which is 34M over and year end projections do not change that figure. An interesting point is that only 1.3M has been spent on Heritage cars (probably only diners) which is 262K less than budget but no more money planned to spend on Heritage cars this FY. (maybe the reprogramming?).  Note all projections may be thru FY 2010.

ARRA projects now $248M being $114M behind. Weird FY projections of $1B and over $62M. Behind schedule Metuchen freq converter $597K 6.2M authorized and planned $14M for FY, Lamokin Freq converter 14.6M and 55M planned, Wash-New Rochelle ACSES 12.8M planned #35M.  Over paid/ Ahead of scheduler Ivy city substation 2.7M A-27.7M. Generally extra money in track and ROW and less for bridges, stations,  

Passenger Eq ARRA $51.6M spent 14.8M over projected 137.6M. Again $18K spent on heritage with no more to spend.  A Note projections all go thru FY 2011 Rolling stock outputs both regular budget and stimulus funds. Overhauls Sanford does level 1s only

Type                     plan       actual    YTD plan]YTD A 

Amfleet                11           6             106        109       

ARRA Am             5             5             27           19           will be caught up by july

Total Beech all equipment Horizon, Surfliners, Viewliners, Heritage, and Cabbage cars (8) transferred to Beech

                              15           15           121        114

(heritage dinners                              2             4             Carry over from 2009)

LD ARRA              0             0             10           7

Acelas                  1             1             8             8

Sanford SL           0             2             0             14           New location after budget                                         

Totals                   32           29           274        275        Includes some other items

P-40 ARRA            0             1             7             5            

Electric                 3             1             19           11           Yr plan lowered

Note: many cars are almost finished in Beech waiting for a 404A module (22) and other parts (17). Some will not be complete until FY 2011 October or later. Much output under other stimulus programs On Time Performances

On time performance of major RRs were best to worse BNSF, UP, NS,CP, CSX, and CN being the worse again for last 12 months, last yr, and yr thru June 2009. For all RRs most minutes of delay were from freight train interference, slow orders (BNSF may get it on August and later months), Signals, & Pass train interference. Host RR delays 73%, AMTRAK 21%,(mostly passenger related)

Amtrak now publishes a measure of number of minutes host RRs delay per 10K miles for all host RRs for each train. Standard is 900.The best was the silver star at 218 on NS’s 28 miles (Raleigh - Selma), next 311 on CSX NY-Albany NS Lynchburg- 398; Some of the worse offenders (over 3000)--- BBr rr Cardinal – 3712min 132Miles BNSF Eagle 2024 Min 126Miles,, CN Adirondak 4637 49M Lincoln – 3695, Eagle 4595, CP Adirondak 3196 - 89M,  CSX Newport News 2540 189M Silvers under, MBTA Downeaster 1753 - 38M, METRA Empire 2432 -  29M, MNrr all Albany trains 64 miles above 1300,   NS Pere 3232 - 39miles, SCRRA  Starlight 2214 48miles, UP Texas Eagle 1505 1104miles, VTR Ethan Allen 9686 - 24Miles( scheduled time is approximately 45 – 50 min for VTR portion but they are delaying each train approximately 161 minutes [9686/60] so train is only making 1/3 speed of schedule. This problem has been for at least the last 4 months).  All figures can be seen on page E-4 of monthly report. Report also breaks down delays on each route by RR.

Now for individual train performance.

SD Pennsylvanian - -95%,  Capitols 91%... Worse is Carolinian at 17% (arrival late at WASH causes inability to make up time)( maybe new crossovers in North Carolina will help CSX?). Next is Downeaster at 43% ( MBTA culprit).

LD --  The best was the Coast Starlight at 96.7% 3 months running.; C-NO  -- 81.7%,  Sunset 80.8%, Worse LD  is Cardinal at 27% 2 Months running at this percentage (BBrRR culprit), Palmetto 25%

 

[blue streak 1]

Some of the trends give an idea of where AMTRAK is going.

1. The higher revenue over expenses allowed AMTRAK to make their $29.8M downpayment on the order for the 130 low level cars from internal funds and I expect we may see another order probably for electric motors before September 30th again using internal funds. Maybe even an order for high level cars. Has anyone seen a Request for Proposal (RFP) issued for either?

2. Using projections (always iffy) from the 1st three quarters vs. 2008 (AMTRAK's record year) here are some trends.

A. Number of passengers should exceed 2008 by 438K.

B. RPM should exceed 2008 by 171,214K.

C. Ticket revenue should exceed 2008 by $518.5M. Note YTD Jun 10 ($1,781.8B) already exceeds Sep 2008 YTD revenue ( $1734.1B).

D. Forecast net loss for FY 2010 is $5.1m OVER BUDGET. May be reason no additional rolling stock orders yet.

[blue streak 1]

Another item I discovered in the depths of the performance report and confirmed elsewhere is some money is being spent on modifying Auto Train car carriers. Something to do with trucks and other items??

The mods will allow 90MPH operation of the carriers however it is anticipated for the near future they will be operated at 79MPH until and if CSX will allow 90 MPH operation as PTC is implemented.