Another item I discovered in the depths of the performance report and confirmed elsewhere is some money is being spent on modifying Auto Train car carriers. Something to do with trucks and other items??
The mods will allow 90MPH operation of the carriers however it is anticipated for the near future they will be operated at 79MPH until and if CSX will allow 90 MPH operation as PTC is implemented.
Some of the trends give an idea of where AMTRAK is going.
1. The higher revenue over expenses allowed AMTRAK to make their $29.8M downpayment on the order for the 130 low level cars from internal funds and I expect we may see another order probably for electric motors before September 30th again using internal funds. Maybe even an order for high level cars. Has anyone seen a Request for Proposal (RFP) issued for either?
2. Using projections (always iffy) from the 1st three quarters vs. 2008 (AMTRAK's record year) here are some trends.
A. Number of passengers should exceed 2008 by 438K.
B. RPM should exceed 2008 by 171,214K.
C. Ticket revenue should exceed 2008 by $518.5M. Note YTD Jun 10 ($1,781.8B) already exceeds Sep 2008 YTD revenue ( $1734.1B).
D. Forecast net loss for FY 2010 is $5.1m OVER BUDGET. May be reason no additional rolling stock orders yet.
June 2010 Amtrak Stats are now available
As usual most comparisons will be FY 2010 first vs. FY 2009. Several errors were found in May report and have tried to fix same. Have mostly rounded figures to nearest million
Operations only Revenues up $15M over budget, ticket revenue up $17M. Expenses $12M over budget however $7M of those expenses were for early equipment terminations and better on time by RRs YTD Rev $80.3M up over budget. Exp $20M over budget including $13M for better OT. Month net loss $2.3M. Net loss for FY $60M. Forecast FY loss $5.1M compared to May’s forecast of42.5M projects are ahead of spending. FY 2010 forecast is $98M more vs. April’s $122.3M less than budget. The reason may be increases in reprogramming ( ? not explained). Train miles up 1% from 2009 (Lynchburg ?). Available seat miles were up 3% from 2009 so there were some longer trains again this month. Revenue Pass miles up 10.3%.(great - May up 10%) Load factor 57.5% up 4% from 2009 ( This gets load factor at 50% for year. Locos out of service 16.8% - 6.3% better than 09. Pass fleet 10.7 vs May’s 10.4% OOS 2.1% better than 09. ( reliability starting to trend but will look for trends later this year also same as Apr)(Note overhauls costing more than budget see below).
Again Diesel Gallons per mile 2.3 vs. 2.3 budget and 2.3 in 2009. Note By table below average train is longer. Seat miles = SM, Train miles = TM, Average seats per train SM/TM = TRS, Gallons per mile = GM, SM/G = seat miles per gallon, Passenger Miles = PM, Trip length PM/TM = TL.
SM 000s TM TRS GM SM/G PM 000s TL
FY 2008 11,800,602 37,324 316 2.4 131 6,159,689 165
FY 2009 11,909,350 37,301 319 2.4 133 5,897,441 158
Mo 2009 1,010,551 3080 324 2.3 140 539,153 175
2010 YTD 9,145,727 27,889 327 2.3 142 4,578,295 164
Jn Month 1,045,901 3118 335 2.3 145 600,992 192
An average passenger trip up 17 miles (suspect that is from the much higher LD travelers & Pass up 9.3% from last year.
Segments Revenue riders comments
Total +17% +9.3%
Acela +16 +11 NH-BOS in service good figures
NEC Regional +12.3 +3.4
Short Dist +19 +12 longer dist per pass
Long Dist +21 +11
Now for short dist rout summaries.
Lynchburg $687K 11,594 pass pass 135% over budget Rev +119% over
Newport News 2341K 45K P Only route better than Lynchburg/train
Carolinian 1.7M 27K P Includes NEC trips and 2 above do not
+22% +8% must be longer trips on train again
Most improved Short Dist Pass from 2009 were piedmont (15,426) 193% ( 2nd train tripled passengers but 15K passengers still only 140/tr vs 86/tr 2009) next best Vermonter with (129/tr)35% more passengers than 2009; Only SD in minus column were , Pennsylvanian (2nd mo), Pere M.
Sunset Rev +39% Pass +25% (2nd mo in row) ; City NO +21%
Palmetto +29 +18% Avg Pass traveled a lot further like Carolinian
Eagle Rev +29% Pass +17% Something happening here and on Sunset
May 2010 Long Distance trains south towards Florida (SS, SM, Palmetto, Auto Tr) , carried 26.5% of all long distance passengers and 32% of revenue. June 2010 Long Distance trains south towards Florida carried 24.5% of all long distance passengers and 35.8% of revenue. Factor in the Carolinian and Newport news by adding their figures into long distance trains and the figure would go to 35% passengers and 33.8% of revenue. It again appears to this poster that maybe more emphasis needs to be placed on improving Carolina/Florida service (certainly appears there is potential). Carolinian On time abysymal. Overall LD passengers up 10.5% and revenue up 18.6%. More passengers traveling longer distances.
Ridership up 20% + for Cal Z, SW limited, Eagle, Sunset, Empire. Revenue up over 20% for those and Starlight and Lakeshore with Sunset up a whopping 37% (could it be because Sunset tickets are slightly less than Eagle tickets on same segments? Total ridership +11% & Revenue +18.8 (traveling longer distances?)
The normal budget (proposed before any ARRA or Tiger proposals) capital spending is still very much behind schedule. Engineering of $242M is $137M behind with big items bridges, various CAT items $52M, Track renewal 6M, ADA compliance 86M. Ahead of schedule exceptions are CETA, rail, track geometry. Projections have ADA compliance $112M below 118M authorized. May be ADA was transferred to ARRA? Year projections of overage payments will be CETA 7M, Rail 7M,
ARRA projects now $248M being $114M behind. Weird FY projections of $1B and over $62M. Behind schedule Metuchen freq converter $597K 6.2M authorized and planned $14M for FY, Lamokin Freq converter 14.6M and 55M planned, Wash-New Rochelle ACSES 12.8M planned #35M. Over paid/ Ahead of scheduler Ivy city substation 2.7M A-27.7M. Generally extra money in track and ROW and less for bridges, stations,
Type plan actual YTD plan]YTD A
Amfleet 11 6 106 109
ARRA Am 5 5 27 19 will be caught up by july
Total Beech all equipment Horizon, Surfliners, Viewliners, Heritage, and Cabbage cars (8) transferred to Beech
15 15 121 114
(heritage dinners 2 4 Carry over from 2009)
LD ARRA 0 0 10 7
Acelas 1 1 8 8
Sanford SL 0 2 0 14 New location after budget
Totals 32 29 274 275 Includes some other items
P-40 ARRA 0 1 7 5
Electric 3 1 19 11 Yr plan lowered
On time performance of major RRs were best to worse BNSF, UP, NS,CP, CSX, and CN being the worse again for last 12 months, last yr, and yr thru June 2009. For all RRs most minutes of delay were from freight train interference, slow orders (BNSF may get it on August and later months), Signals, & Pass train interference. Host RR delays 73%, AMTRAK 21%,(mostly passenger related)
Now for individual train performance.
SD Pennsylvanian - -95%, Capitols 91%... Worse is Carolinian at 17% (arrival late at WASH causes inability to make up time)( maybe new crossovers in North Carolina will help CSX?). Next is Downeaster at 43% ( MBTA culprit).
LD -- The best was the Coast Starlight at 96.7% 3 months running.; C-NO -- 81.7%, Sunset 80.8%, Worse LD is Cardinal at 27% 2 Months running at this percentage (BBrRR culprit), Palmetto 25%
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