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Opportunity Knocks

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Opportunity Knocks
Posted by greyhounds on Sunday, June 12, 2022 4:28 AM
 
The Farmer John Vernon, CA pork plant is the only halfway reasonably sized such facility on the west coast.  And it’s being shut down.  I’ve got it at a capacity of 7,500 hogs per day turned into pork.  Compare that with the facilities at Sioux City or Waterloo, Iowa, or elsewhere, that can process 20,000 hogs per day.  20,000 is a common amount and it seems to be the largest economical size.  There is one long established facility in North Carolina that can do 32,000 per day.  But it hasn’t been replicated, so I’ll guess diseconomies set in above 20,000 head per day. 
 
Total US hog slaughter in the year 2021 was 128,986,000 head.  About 23% went to export.
 
The soon to be closed Vernon, CA facility was the destination for the last significant volume livestock movement by rail in the US.  Live hogs from Nebraska were hauled to California for slaughter on the Union Pacific.  That went away maybe 20-25 years ago when they decided to raise the hogs closer to California and haul the livestock in by truck.
 
Go get ‘em railroad marketing folks.  It’s long haul and high volume.  And a refrigerated trailer/container made empty in California is an opportunity, not a problem.
 
Those Californians aren’t going to stop eating bacon/sausage for breakfast.  Or pork chops for dinner.  Get the freight on the railroad and send ‘em a bill.
There might be a paywall here.  But hey, I tried.
 
 
 
 
 
"By many measures, the U.S. freight rail system is the safest, most efficient and cost effective in the world." - Federal Railroad Administration, October, 2009. I'm just your average, everyday, uncivilized howling "anti-government" critic of mass government expenditures for "High Speed Rail" in the US. And I'm gosh darn proud of that.
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Posted by Gramp on Sunday, June 12, 2022 3:33 PM

No longer a Smithfield fan since it's owned by the PRC.  Smithfield was known for their hams when it was really Smithfield. Hope this doesn't mean that they'll import to west coast from China.  Couldn't read much of the article. If production does come from the Midwest, I hope some railroad-oriented group does listen to you, and picks up the ball and runs with it. 

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Posted by SD60MAC9500 on Sunday, June 12, 2022 11:02 PM
 

The last live hogs were delivered in 1994. Reporting marks on the cars were fittingly HOGX. Toward the final years these cars ran in blocks of about 5-10 on the headend of UP's hotshot NPLAT.

Let's see what happens.. It sounds like Smithfield may try to find a buyer for the plant.. If not turn it into cold storage. It's a very short dray from East LA, and Hobart.
 
Hey! Maybe they can make a run at those Califronia avocados going to the Midwest/Northeast! Ventura, and Santa Barbara counties dominate California avocado prouction at roughly 68% of the states total. Dray would be about 100-115 miles give or take.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Rahhhhhhhhh!!!!
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Posted by Backshop on Monday, June 13, 2022 7:51 AM

After 200+ views and no responses, someone couldn't help themselves and had to respond...

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Posted by Murphy Siding on Monday, June 13, 2022 8:13 AM

greyhounds
 
The Farmer John Vernon, CA pork plant is the only halfway reasonably sized such facility on the west coast.  And it’s being shut down.  I’ve got it at a capacity of 7,500 hogs per day turned into pork.  Compare that with the facilities at Sioux City or Waterloo, Iowa, or elsewhere, that can process 20,000 hogs per day.  20,000 is a common amount and it seems to be the largest economical size.  There is one long established facility in North Carolina that can do 32,000 per day.  But it hasn’t been replicated, so I’ll guess diseconomies set in above 20,000 head per day. 
 
Total US hog slaughter in the year 2021 was 128,986,000 head.  About 23% went to export.
 
The soon to be closed Vernon, CA facility was the destination for the last significant volume livestock movement by rail in the US.  Live hogs from Nebraska were hauled to California for slaughter on the Union Pacific.  That went away maybe 20-25 years ago when they decided to raise the hogs closer to California and haul the livestock in by truck.
 
Go get ‘em railroad marketing folks.  It’s long haul and high volume.  And a refrigerated trailer/container made empty in California is an opportunity, not a problem.
 
Those Californians aren’t going to stop eating bacon/sausage for breakfast.  Or pork chops for dinner.  Get the freight on the railroad and send ‘em a bill.
There might be a paywall here.  But hey, I tried.
 
 
 
 
 
 

Wouldn't this mean that the midwest plants would need to process an addition 7500 hogs a day to cover this?

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Posted by Murphy Siding on Monday, June 13, 2022 8:15 AM

Gramp

No longer a Smithfield fan since it's owned by the PRC.  Smithfield was known for their hams when it was really Smithfield. Hope this doesn't mean that they'll import to west coast from China.  Couldn't read much of the article. If production does come from the Midwest, I hope some railroad-oriented group does listen to you, and picks up the ball and runs with it. 

 

When Smithfield bought our local John Morrel plant, the reason given was to be able to supply more pork to chinese consumers. I doubt the Chinese would be importing pork into the USA at this point.

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Posted by greyhounds on Monday, June 13, 2022 1:16 PM

Murphy Siding
Wouldn't this mean that the midwest plants would need to process an addition 7500 hogs a day to cover this?

Yes it would.

"By many measures, the U.S. freight rail system is the safest, most efficient and cost effective in the world." - Federal Railroad Administration, October, 2009. I'm just your average, everyday, uncivilized howling "anti-government" critic of mass government expenditures for "High Speed Rail" in the US. And I'm gosh darn proud of that.
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Posted by greyhounds on Monday, June 13, 2022 1:36 PM

Murphy Siding
When Smithfield bought our local John Morrel plant, the reason given was to be able to supply more pork to chinese consumers. I doubt the Chinese would be importing pork into the USA at this point.

In the year 2021 the US exported 800,000 short tons of pork and "Hog Variety Meat" (organs such as the liver) to China/Hong Kong.  At 23 tons per container this works out to over 95 containers per day 365 days per year.

Those hogs don't generally grow up on the west coast.  They are raised in the Midwest (OK, North Carolina too) where their food is grown. 

https://www.porkcheckoff.org/markets/us-pork-exports/

 

"By many measures, the U.S. freight rail system is the safest, most efficient and cost effective in the world." - Federal Railroad Administration, October, 2009. I'm just your average, everyday, uncivilized howling "anti-government" critic of mass government expenditures for "High Speed Rail" in the US. And I'm gosh darn proud of that.
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Posted by CSSHEGEWISCH on Monday, June 13, 2022 1:56 PM

That comes out to ten 5-unit double-stack intermodal cars per day from an amalgamation of several packing plants at widespread locations.  That's not a lot of traffic.

The daily commute is part of everyday life but I get two rides a day out of it. Paul
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Posted by MP173 on Tuesday, June 14, 2022 11:50 AM

I believe, but could be incorrect, that California has new regulations on hog raising and slaughtering and the hogs must be "happy" prior to conversion to bacon.  Lots of new regulations coming from California for treatment of critters prior to slaughter.

Ed

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Posted by rrnut282 on Tuesday, June 14, 2022 12:49 PM

MP173

I believe, but could be incorrect, that California has new regulations on hog raising and slaughtering and the hogs must be "happy" prior to conversion to bacon.  Lots of new regulations coming from California for treatment of critters prior to slaughter.

Ed

 

That could be why the plant is closing. 

Not sure the amount of meat from 7,500 hogs would fill 95 containers.

Will the other midwest plants voluntarily add that production?  Especiallty since you think there is economic disincentive to go over 20k.  

Mike (2-8-2)
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Posted by Ulrich on Tuesday, June 14, 2022 2:03 PM

MP173

I believe, but could be incorrect, that California has new regulations on hog raising and slaughtering and the hogs must be "happy" prior to conversion to bacon.  Lots of new regulations coming from California for treatment of critters prior to slaughter.

Ed

 

 

California ahead of the curve again as they are on so many things. 

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Posted by Gramp on Tuesday, June 14, 2022 3:05 PM

Ulrich

 

 
MP173

I believe, but could be incorrect, that California has new regulations on hog raising and slaughtering and the hogs must be "happy" prior to conversion to bacon.  Lots of new regulations coming from California for treatment of critters prior to slaughter.

Ed

 

 

 

 

California ahead of the curve again as they are on so many things. 

 

Is that why so many Californians have moved to Arizona, kept their California jobs, and work remote from Arizona? ;)

 

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Posted by SD70Dude on Tuesday, June 14, 2022 3:05 PM

In the bad old days before PSR 45-50 daily carloads of priority freight might have justified its own dedicated train. 

If California really wants to do something for animal rights they should make those regulations apply to meat that is sold in the state, not just animals that happen to be slaughtered there. 

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Posted by Ulrich on Tuesday, June 14, 2022 3:46 PM

SD70Dude

If California really wants to do something for animal rights they should make those regulations apply to meat that is sold in the state, not just animals that happen to be slaughtered there. 

 

 

Good point..

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Posted by greyhounds on Tuesday, June 14, 2022 5:00 PM

CSSHEGEWISCH
That comes out to ten 5-unit double-stack intermodal cars per day from an amalgamation of several packing plants at widespread locations.  That's not a lot of traffic.

Whoops, there it is. This the other side of the “It won’t work” coin.  The claim that there’s not enough traffic to worry about.  Well, to paraphrase Everett Dirksen, “95 loads per day here, 95 loads per day there, soon you’re talking real volume and revenue.”
 
95 loads per day was the 2021 volume just to China/Hong Kong.  It does not include the volume to Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, the US west coast, etc.  These volumes would more than double the number.  Big time.
 
People just flat out look for reasons market development won’t work.  It’s as if because they didn’t think of it it’s no good. 
 
Look, here’s just an idea to get some of this freight and money on the railroad.
 
Marshalltown, IA is on the UP main line. It has a large JBS pork plant.  It is also well within economical drayage distance from a large Tyson pork plant in Waterloo, IA.  It is furthermore within economical drayage distance from large breakfast cereal plants in Cedar Rapids.  (General Mills and Quaker.)  We don’t have to limit ourselves to China or pork. 
 
Put a small, low cost, intermodal terminal in Marshalltown.  Add the rail cars/containers to an existing schedule operating through Marshalltown.  It would be low incremental cost but good incremental revenue.
 
Now someone is going to tell me why “Things Just Don’t Work That Way.”  I know they could work that way.
"By many measures, the U.S. freight rail system is the safest, most efficient and cost effective in the world." - Federal Railroad Administration, October, 2009. I'm just your average, everyday, uncivilized howling "anti-government" critic of mass government expenditures for "High Speed Rail" in the US. And I'm gosh darn proud of that.
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Posted by zugmann on Tuesday, June 14, 2022 5:47 PM

greyhounds
Now someone is going to tell me why “Things Just Don’t Work That Way.”  I know they could work that way.

Of course they could.  But do you really think they are going to make an investment in crews, engines, and terminal tracks under the current operating philosophy?  Did you not watch the STB meetings where the largest shippers were there complaining about service?   

It's not that we don't think the new service is possible (we do), nor do we think it shouldn't be done (most of us would welcome it), but we're out here every day watching the penny pinching continue unabated. 

 

  

The opinions expressed here represent my own and not those of my employer, any other railroad, company, or person.

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Tuesday, June 14, 2022 5:48 PM

Apparently we have someone far more expert  and knowledgeable on potential markets than both the UP or BNSF. Amazing!

 

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Posted by tree68 on Tuesday, June 14, 2022 6:27 PM

charlie hebdo

Apparently we have someone far more expert  and knowledgeable on potential markets than both the UP or BNSF. Amazing!

The difference is that someone posting here is driven by logic, whereas UP and BNSF are driven by the bottom line (as dictated by investors).

The railroads may have looked at the same factors and decided that even if there is profit to be had, the expense isn't worth it.

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Posted by Euclid on Tuesday, June 14, 2022 7:14 PM
Of course the investors are interested in a good bottom line.  But why can’t the bottom line be increased for the investors?  I don’t see why every new idea is doomed to fail just because it requires some new investment.  You need investment to make money.  So why would investors object to more investment if it makes more money for them?
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Posted by BaltACD on Tuesday, June 14, 2022 7:17 PM

tree68
 
charlie hebdo

Apparently we have someone far more expert  and knowledgeable on potential markets than both the UP or BNSF. Amazing! 

The difference is that someone posting here is driven by logic, whereas UP and BNSF are driven by the bottom line (as dictated by investors).

The railroads may have looked at the same factors and decided that even if there is profit to be had, the expense isn't worth it.

I am getting the feeling that today's PSR carriers wouldn't accept 'business' that didn't require any investment except for an accountant to keep track of it.  The additional accountant would drive up the OR.

Never too old to have a happy childhood!

              

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Posted by Ulrich on Tuesday, June 14, 2022 7:37 PM

Euclid
Of course the investors are interested in a good bottom line.  But why can’t the bottom line be increased for the investors?  I don’t see why every new idea is doomed to fail just because it requires some new investment.  You need investment to make money.  So why would investors object to more investment if it makes more money for them?
 

Not all investors. I for one like to see money ploughed back into the business.. because in the longer term that equates to a better more profitable and more valuable business. People sometimes complain about paltry railroad dividend yields.. but I would  prefer a 1% to 2% yield over a higher yield that is less stable and sustainable, and that bleeds too much out of the business. 

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Posted by JoeBlow on Tuesday, June 14, 2022 7:38 PM

This is an end of an era. The FJ plant is in Vernon, which is basically a large industrial park, that was founded in the 1920s. At one time, Vernon was the main meat packing district in the western US with multiple slaughter houses and related industries like cattle yards and rendering plants. Think of the Union Stock Yards in Chicago. Of course this changed over time with the evolution of technology, logistics and farming.

        The area is served by the Los Angeles Junction Railway which is jointly owned by UP and BNSF. 

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Posted by Murphy Siding on Tuesday, June 14, 2022 8:59 PM

greyhounds

 

 
Murphy Siding
When Smithfield bought our local John Morrel plant, the reason given was to be able to supply more pork to chinese consumers. I doubt the Chinese would be importing pork into the USA at this point.

 

In the year 2021 the US exported 800,000 short tons of pork and "Hog Variety Meat" (organs such as the liver) to China/Hong Kong.  At 23 tons per container this works out to over 95 containers per day 365 days per year.

Those hogs don't generally grow up on the west coast.  They are raised in the Midwest (OK, North Carolina too) where their food is grown. 

https://www.porkcheckoff.org/markets/us-pork-exports/

 

 

Where are those 7500 hogs per day that are currently going to this CA plant coming from now? Where will they be processed once that plant closes?

I looked it up on Google Maps. The plant is pretty much in the middle of metro LA. Oof! I live 5 miles from a packing plant and I know it's there. A million people probably live with 5 miles of that one in LA.

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Posted by jeffhergert on Tuesday, June 14, 2022 9:38 PM

SD70Dude

In the bad old days before PSR 45-50 daily carloads of priority freight might have justified its own dedicated train. 

If California really wants to do something for animal rights they should make those regulations apply to meat that is sold in the state, not just animals that happen to be slaughtered there. 

 

I believe it does apply to meat processed in other states.  Those other states, Iowa being one, have complained that California has no legal right to force their laws on other states.   

I wouldn't be surprised if eventually California bans real meat completely.

Jeff

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Posted by jeffhergert on Tuesday, June 14, 2022 9:43 PM

Euclid
Of course the investors are interested in a good bottom line.  But why can’t the bottom line be increased for the investors?  I don’t see why every new idea is doomed to fail just because it requires some new investment.  You need investment to make money.  So why would investors object to more investment if it makes more money for them?
 

Because the investors, at least the vast majority, have no idea how the companies they invest in make their money.  Most are interested in returns, often quick returns.  If the quickest way to make the most money is to drive a company into the ground, they probably wouldn't know any different. 

Some wouldn't care even if they knew better.

Jeff

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Posted by SD60MAC9500 on Tuesday, June 14, 2022 10:03 PM
 

Murphy Siding

 

 
greyhounds

 

 
Murphy Siding
When Smithfield bought our local John Morrel plant, the reason given was to be able to supply more pork to chinese consumers. I doubt the Chinese would be importing pork into the USA at this point.

 

In the year 2021 the US exported 800,000 short tons of pork and "Hog Variety Meat" (organs such as the liver) to China/Hong Kong.  At 23 tons per container this works out to over 95 containers per day 365 days per year.

Those hogs don't generally grow up on the west coast.  They are raised in the Midwest (OK, North Carolina too) where their food is grown. 

https://www.porkcheckoff.org/markets/us-pork-exports/

 

 

 

 

Where are those 7500 hogs per day that are currently going to this CA plant coming from now? Where will they be processed once that plant closes?

I looked it up on Google Maps. The plant is pretty much in the middle of metro LA. Oof! I live 5 miles from a packing plant and I know it's there. A million people probably live with 5 miles of that one in LA.

 

 

Anybody interested in Smithfield sites use this link https://www.smithfieldfoods.com/about-us/Operations 

Currently these hogs are probably coming from: California, and Arizona.

On the map use the drop down and choose plants. It will show what plants process which style of meat. Carroll, and Denison, IA both have pork processing facilites right off of UP's main there.

Two other plants in Nebraska are off BNSF lines in Lincoln and Crete.

These could be possible places production moves too.

 
 
 
 
Rahhhhhhhhh!!!!
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Posted by jeffhergert on Tuesday, June 14, 2022 10:05 PM

greyhounds

 

 
 
 
Look, here’s just an idea to get some of this freight and money on the railroad.
 
Marshalltown, IA is on the UP main line. It has a large JBS pork plant.  It is also well within economical drayage distance from a large Tyson pork plant in Waterloo, IA.  It is furthermore within economical drayage distance from large breakfast cereal plants in Cedar Rapids.  (General Mills and Quaker.)  We don’t have to limit ourselves to China or pork. 
 
Put a small, low cost, intermodal terminal in Marshalltown.  Add the rail cars/containers to an existing schedule operating through Marshalltown.  It would be low incremental cost but good incremental revenue.
 
Now someone is going to tell me why “Things Just Don’t Work That Way.”  I know they could work that way.
 

I won't tell you it wouldn't work.  I think it would.  It might even be happening somewhat, except the terminal isn't on the UP but on the Iowa Northern.  They built a small intermodal terminal just northwest of Waterloo, and the UP thinks it was a good idea.  

Now, one of the cereal companies approached the UP about loading containers at Beverly (Cedar Rapids).  I believe one of the other cereal companies was also interested.  The volume I heard would've been about three 5 pack well cars a day.  Traffic would go both directions on alternating days.  East one day, west the next, etc.  The railroad investment would be getting something to lift the containers and improving a road that already was along the right of way.  (I believe the southern most track at Beverly was expected to be the loading point.)

Local management worked with the companies.  Like other things that local managers at various locations who've worked with customers and potential customers over the last 10 or more years, once the proposal reached higher circles it was shot down.   $5 to $10 million a year in net profit (what most of the proposals over the years would've made) just isn't good enough to interest them.

It's hard to fathom, UP is fine using an intermodal terminal on a short line that's out of the way and needs a round about way to get to the east/west main line but won't do anything on it's own direct line.  Well, maybe it's not to hard to fathom.  Iowa Northern's facility didn't require any UP money to establish, and UP still gets some traffic from it.  

Jeff

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Posted by SD60MAC9500 on Tuesday, June 14, 2022 10:14 PM
 

jeffhergert

 

 
greyhounds

 

 
 
 
Look, here’s just an idea to get some of this freight and money on the railroad.
 
Marshalltown, IA is on the UP main line. It has a large JBS pork plant.  It is also well within economical drayage distance from a large Tyson pork plant in Waterloo, IA.  It is furthermore within economical drayage distance from large breakfast cereal plants in Cedar Rapids.  (General Mills and Quaker.)  We don’t have to limit ourselves to China or pork. 
 
Put a small, low cost, intermodal terminal in Marshalltown.  Add the rail cars/containers to an existing schedule operating through Marshalltown.  It would be low incremental cost but good incremental revenue.
 
Now someone is going to tell me why “Things Just Don’t Work That Way.”  I know they could work that way.
 

 

 

I won't tell you it wouldn't work.  I think it would.  It might even be happening somewhat, except the terminal isn't on the UP but on the Iowa Northern.  They built a small intermodal terminal just northwest of Waterloo, and the UP thinks it was a good idea.  

Now, one of the cereal companies approached the UP about loading containers at Beverly (Cedar Rapids).  I believe one of the other cereal companies was also interested.  The volume I heard would've been about three 5 pack well cars a day.  Traffic would go both directions on alternating days.  East one day, west the next, etc.  The railroad investment would be getting something to lift the containers and improving a road that already was along the right of way.  (I believe the southern most track at Beverly was expected to be the loading point.)

Local management worked with the companies.  Like other things that local managers at various locations who've worked with customers and potential customers over the last 10 or more years, once the proposal reached higher circles it was shot down.   $5 to $10 million a year in net profit (what most of the proposals over the years would've made) just isn't good enough to interest them.

It's hard to fathom, UP is fine using an intermodal terminal on a short line that's out of the way and needs a round about way to get to the east/west main line but won't do anything on it's own direct line.  Well, maybe it's not to hard to fathom.  Iowa Northern's facility didn't require any UP money to establish, and UP still gets some traffic from it.  

Jeff

 

You're going to need a WATCO or Savage to operate these small terminals.. Since the C1's turn up their nose at incremental revenue. 

 
 
Rahhhhhhhhh!!!!
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Posted by greyhounds on Wednesday, June 15, 2022 3:30 AM

charlie hebdo
Apparently we have someone far more expert  and knowledgeable on potential markets than both the UP or BNSF. Amazing!

Hey look, gaining an understanding of freight movements and figuring a way for a railroad to haul the freight, and make money doing so, is interesting and enjoyable for me. 
 
I once did that for a living.
 
If you don’t like what I write, don’t read it.
 
Got any questions?
"By many measures, the U.S. freight rail system is the safest, most efficient and cost effective in the world." - Federal Railroad Administration, October, 2009. I'm just your average, everyday, uncivilized howling "anti-government" critic of mass government expenditures for "High Speed Rail" in the US. And I'm gosh darn proud of that.

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