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Posted by Convicted One on Wednesday, November 10, 2021 2:05 PM

Murphy Siding
. Special order goods on the other hand, are a nightmare for everyone involved.

I don't believe that those buzzards coming home to roost as a consequence of off-shoring, should have been unforeseeable by  anybody?

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Posted by Convicted One on Wednesday, November 10, 2021 12:28 PM

Murphy Siding
How so?

If there is a 6 month wait for fiberfab, thin veneered import garbage, maybe that will motivate people to renovate and reinhabit existing properties composed of traditional solid materials, instead of continuing to gobble up outlying wilderness for new additions?.

Relax, you can still sell them  paints, countertops and shingles, the urgency (I need it all now) just wont be as acute.

 

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Posted by Convicted One on Wednesday, November 10, 2021 12:20 PM

Euclid
What do you mean by "sustainability standpoint."

 

Abandoning  servicable homes in the city core in pursuit of an ever growing ring of suburban sprawl, is a waste of land and resources.

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Posted by Euclid on Wednesday, November 10, 2021 11:26 AM

Convicted One

 

 
Euclid
  It is like burning your furniture and house siding to keep warm after your fuel runs out.  

 

 

American's passion for abandoning the city core and nearburbs, in pursuit of an ever exapanding ring of farburbs, never seemed very wise to me, from a  sustainabilty" standpoint.

Perhaps  chronic shortages might motivate people to turn the tide?

 

What do you mean by "sustainability standpoint."

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Posted by Murphy Siding on Wednesday, November 10, 2021 10:47 AM

Convicted One

 

 
Euclid
  It is like burning your furniture and house siding to keep warm after your fuel runs out.  

 

 

American's passion for abandoning the city core and nearburbs, in pursuit of an ever exapanding ring of farburbs, never seemed very wise to me, from a  sustainabilty" standpoint.

Perhaps  chronic shortages might motivate people to turn the tide?

 

How so?

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Posted by Convicted One on Wednesday, November 10, 2021 10:30 AM

Euclid
  It is like burning your furniture and house siding to keep warm after your fuel runs out.  

 

American's passion for abandoning the city core and nearburbs, in pursuit of an ever exapanding ring of farburbs, never seemed very wise to me, from a  sustainabilty" standpoint.

Perhaps  chronic shortages might motivate people to turn the tide?

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Posted by Murphy Siding on Wednesday, November 10, 2021 9:06 AM

Euclid

I am finding building supplies inventories shrinking, prices rising, and special order lead times growing longer.  Everything special ordered from lumber yards is now estimated at 4-5 weeks for delivery.  And they are actually telling me that the estimates are understated, and so they are calling it 4-5 weeks-plus

They are telling me that, after pre-paying the purchase, and after waiting a few weeks, the delivery estimate is being revised to add more weeks.  Basically, vendors to not want to lose a sale by being honest about the long wait for delivery, so they are understating the wait time up front.  

This can't be good for business.  It is like burning your furniture and house siding to keep warm after your fuel runs out.  

 

     Nonsense! You're obviously buying from the wrong suppliers.Pirate Funny, but it almost looks like you're trying to troll any lumberyard guys on the forum. Mischief Buiding materials-wood. OSB, siding, shingles, decking, etc.-are not shrinking. Prices are going up, but so are groceries. Special order goods on the other hand, are a nightmare for everyone involved.

     We’ve had about 8-9 months of people frantically shouting at us about when they will get their materials. There's no incentive to lie to people and that's not how we do business. If you want to order something non-stock,we will tell you the honest truth. We will tell you exactly what the manufacturer is telling us, which they believe is the truth as well about lead times. We will also tell you that the lead times are subject to change, and they will, and probably not for the better. If that doesn’t work for you, I’d suggest you head up the street to competitor who is going to tell you the exact same thing. Good luck.Smile

 

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Posted by Euclid on Wednesday, November 10, 2021 6:37 AM

I am finding building supplies inventories shrinking, prices rising, and special order lead times growing longer.  Everything special ordered from lumber yards is now estimated at 4-5 weeks for delivery.  And they are actually telling me that the estimates are understated, and so they are calling it 4-5 weeks-plus

They are telling me that, after pre-paying the purchase, and after waiting a few weeks, the delivery estimate is being revised to add more weeks.  Basically, vendors to not want to lose a sale by being honest about the long wait for delivery, so they are understating the wait time up front.  

This can't be good for business.  It is like burning your furniture and house siding to keep warm after your fuel runs out.  

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Posted by Backshop on Wednesday, November 10, 2021 6:10 AM

I wouldn't know about that.  My last bike had a US frame (upstate NY) and wheels, French pedals and Italian driveline and brakes.

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Posted by Convicted One on Tuesday, November 9, 2021 10:03 PM

Backshop
as long as I'm supporting our allies, but China is another story.

Yeah, well 10 years ago when I bought the Townie,  relations were less tedious.  Devil

Chrome finishes, tires, rims and spokes are all less durable on the modern bikes, compared to the good olde days.

And  the tolerances on fasteners seemed closer on the vintage bikes. Everything today seems to be engineered for light weight, and speed assembly.  Just about any pedals that come stock on a bike these days are junk  as well. 

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Posted by Backshop on Tuesday, November 9, 2021 7:11 PM

Convicted One

In full honesty, some items produced in China are good quality.  If you are shopping for bottom dollar, you get what you pay for. Such as shopping for a bicycle at Walmart.

Alternatively, If you are willing to spend $500 for a bicycle made in China, you can find some decent examples.  I've got a 50 year old Schwinn, and a 10 year old Electra....and the welding on the frame of the electra is likely superior to the Schwinn.

 

I've never heard of Electra.  Comparing anything to a 50 year old Schwinn is laughable.  The quality of everything has improved in the last 50 years.  Welds are often done by machine now.  I don't mind buying foreign stuff as long as I'm supporting our allies, but China is another story.

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Posted by MP173 on Tuesday, November 9, 2021 4:37 PM

Convicted one:

I also pickup old mechanical pencils, particularly those with advertising.  I do not have any Dixon.  I have several railroad pencils - Illinois Central, Missouri Pacific, C&EI, and Wabash.  These are Quickpoint Pencils out of ST. Louis.  They must have had the market on railroad pencils.

Anyother item I collect from garage/estate sales are slide rules.  Picked up 3 last month. Ran into a hot streak.  Most of them are picked up for $1 or so.

Also have a NYC huge pipe wrench which is stamped NYC...overpaid for it at $20.

Ed

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Posted by Convicted One on Tuesday, November 9, 2021 10:15 AM

In full honesty, some items produced in China are good quality.  If you are shopping for bottom dollar, you get what you pay for. Such as shopping for a bicycle at Walmart.

Alternatively, If you are willing to spend $500 for a bicycle made in China, you can find some decent examples.  I've got a 50 year old Schwinn, and a 10 year old Electra....and the welding on the frame of the electra is likely superior to the Schwinn.

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Posted by Convicted One on Tuesday, November 9, 2021 10:06 AM

I'm somewhat of a walking anachronism.  I've got shovels that I inherited from my dad, 50 years ago. My favorite mechanical pencil is a Dixon from the 1940s.

When I go out to yard and rummage sales, whenever I see a "pre china" Crescent wrench (or other vintage tool from the good old days) I buy it, even if I already have 6.

Society seems to have adopted a "disposable" perspective on most things. Buy the cheapest you can possibly find, use it until it either wears out or you lose it, and then buy another cheap replacement.   I just can't embrace that type of thinking. 

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Posted by Backshop on Tuesday, November 9, 2021 9:21 AM

Convicted One

 

 
Shadow the Cats owner
Why the parts are made in freaking China.  

 

Hopefully this will serve as a wake up call, as to the bed we've put  our selves in. Could not a war disrupt the fragile overseas logistics network  that we have grown so dependent upon? 

Even then I suspect we'll have people fighting to protect their "rights" to hustle a buck peddling  outsourced merchandise... will we ever learn?

 

I'm on an outdoors forum that's mainly "conservatives". They hate Biden and refer to him as "China Joe".  At the same time, they brag about the Chinese optics they bought that are a little cheaper than the American and Japanese alternatives.  They don't see the irony in it.

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Posted by Convicted One on Tuesday, November 9, 2021 8:57 AM

Shadow the Cats owner
Why the parts are made in freaking China.  

Hopefully this will serve as a wake up call, as to the bed we've put  our selves in. Could not a war disrupt the fragile overseas logistics network  that we have grown so dependent upon? 

Even then I suspect we'll have people fighting to protect their "rights" to hustle a buck peddling  outsourced merchandise... will we ever learn?

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Posted by Convicted One on Tuesday, November 9, 2021 8:45 AM

Murphy Siding
I guess I wasn't looking at it from that angle. I was thinking more of Elvis in hiding and fake moon landings- more of the tinfoil hat type stuff.

(Tongue in cheek) Well, that's just the thing. Usually whenever a far flung suspicion is proven to be true, the naysayers have a talent for evaporating into thin air, and the "theory" becomes mainsteam belief.  So the people claiming "we knew it all along" tend to far outnumber the people willing to own the "we were sure this was all just smoke and mirrors" side of the argument.

As Tree said, there is often a kernel of truth under even the most outlandish stories.  That's why I was interested in knowing what that engineer who tried to ram that hospital ship with his switch engine was thinking he saw.    While there may not have been an "X-files" aspect to it, he might have witnessed someone doing something they were trying to suppress. For instance trying to smuggle privileged people around a pandemic-imposed travel embargo, or somethig of that nature.

I always try to ask myself, "would people in power be willing to lie to promote their own interest?" before dismissing a story as total nonsense.

Amtrak clears several hurdles towards being a "conspiracy" <----obligatory train related content. Whistling

 

$3,000 for snow removal allocated to the Miami amtrak station? C'mon, do they believe that we are really that dumb?   Dunce

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Posted by Shadow the Cats owner on Tuesday, November 9, 2021 8:17 AM

Right now my husband has a major problem.  His cpap machine is under recall by the FDA but the parts for that recall are between 6 mo the to 18 months away from getting into the maker of the machine.  His doctor has tried to get a replacement none available.  He literally is taking his life into the hands of a machine that could kill him every night until it's fixed.  Why the parts are made in freaking China.  

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Posted by Murphy Siding on Tuesday, November 9, 2021 7:09 AM

Convicted One

 

 
Murphy Siding
Well, now I'm trying to think of any conspiracies that were true.

 

Many, ...the conspiracy to mislead the American Public and make them believe  we were making worthwhile progress in the war  in Vietnam. The conspiracy by the US military to utilize the UFO sensationalism as a smokescreen to veil testing of classified weapons systems. Watergate denial, I could go long and hard on this one, but it would just stir up  animosity.

Frequently the "truth" underying what are suspected to be conspiracies, is something other than the public suspects it to be. But when intentional misinformation is utilized, absent verifiable evidence people have a knack to  fill in the blanks on their own and suspect worst case scanarios.

 

I guess I wasn't looking at it from that angle. I was thinking more of Elvis in hiding and fake moon landings- more of the tinfoil hat type stuff.

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Posted by Euclid on Monday, November 8, 2021 8:07 PM
TWO CAUSES OF INFLATION:
 
 
CAUSE #1:
Inflating the money supply is causing a demand spike.
That demand spike is inflating prices.
 
CAUSE #2:
That demand spike is also slowing the supply chain.
The slowing supply chain is causing a second demand spike.
The second demand spike is also inflating prices. 
 
Therefore we have inflation from a first cause that is creating a second cause of inflation.  So total inflation is the sum of two independent causes, although the first cause is creating the second cause.
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Posted by tree68 on Monday, November 8, 2021 7:35 PM

Convicted One
Frequently the "truth" underying what are suspected to be conspiracies, is something other than the public suspects it to be.

Too true.  But even without that angle, I've often said that legends often/usually have a grain of truth to them.  The same can be said of conspiracy theories.

I've read that there really was a "Paul Bunyon," a big fellow who swung a powerful axe, and he had a large ox as well, perhaps it looked blue.  

Oftimes such legends are a combination of smaller truths...

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Posted by Convicted One on Monday, November 8, 2021 5:54 PM

Backshop
The problem is that some seem to be saying "they're screwing over the American consumer, the powerless little guy".

Collateral damage. 

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Posted by Convicted One on Monday, November 8, 2021 5:47 PM

Murphy Siding
Well, now I'm trying to think of any conspiracies that were true.

Many, ...the conspiracy to mislead the American Public and make them believe  we were making worthwhile progress in the war  in Vietnam. The conspiracy by the US military to utilize the UFO sensationalism as a smokescreen to veil testing of classified weapons systems. Watergate denial, I could go long and hard on this one, but it would just stir up  animosity.

Frequently the "truth" underying what are suspected to be conspiracies, is something other than the public suspects it to be. But when intentional misinformation is utilized, absent verifiable evidence people have a knack to  fill in the blanks on their own and suspect worst case scanarios.

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Posted by rdamon on Monday, November 8, 2021 2:46 PM

Seems less of a conspiracy than more of a few conglomerates running the show and working the supply and demand model.

Using COSCO’s historic ties to the Chinese government could make for some good cable news fodder.

 

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Posted by Murphy Siding on Monday, November 8, 2021 2:11 PM

charlie hebdo

 

 

 

 

Sometimes conspiracies are true but mostly they are created to fill the void where there is a paucity of facts and lack of the abilities to comprehend complicated situations..

 

Well, now I'm trying to think of any conspiracies that were true.

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Posted by Murphy Siding on Monday, November 8, 2021 2:10 PM

charlie hebdo

 

 
Backshop

 

 
rdamon

Spent some time this weekend with a friend in the industry who likened the chassis situation to a cartel operation that has been in the making for some time. Container manufacturing has greatly outpaced chassis production.  They indicated that this was a planned move to increase the cost of transportation (profits).

I heard the same container shipment price increases quoted (4-6x) mentioned in this thread.

Also, it is not so much that shipments are being redirected it is more the luck of the draw.  They indicated that right now you pay up front for shipping and they give you a 30-day window and they do not tell you what US port it will show up at until they load it on a ship.

They are currently dealing with a Washington State based shipment that came in in Baltimore, MD instead of a west coast port. So now they are forced to truck the container across the US as well as bring the empty container and chassis back east.

They also said that the railroads were no better as they already have their contracts and “could care less”

One other thing I was told is that many of the Asian based shipping companies had mothballed their older fleet instead of recycling and that they have re-activated them and that coupled with a 7-month organized work slowdown in Los Angeles has created the situation.  

Their opinion was that this is a manufactured crisis, and the end goal is to increase profits and block US trade 

 

 

 

 

Who is behind this far-reaching conspiracy?

 

 

 

 

Sometimes conspiracies are true but mostly they are created to fill the void where there is a paucity of facts and lack of the abilities to comprehend complicated situations..

 

I look at things like this as being a variation of the form of Hanlon's Razor- Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.

Variation: Never attribute to conspiracy that which can quite possibly be explained by dumb luck and unforseen circumstances. 

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Posted by Murphy Siding on Monday, November 8, 2021 2:05 PM

Backshop

The problem is that some seem to be saying "they're screwing over the American consumer, the powerless little guy".  The fact is, they'd be "screwing over" their best and biggest customers, Walmart, Home Depot and Amazon.  You normally don't try to do that.

 

Unless you think you can get away with it. Mischief

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Posted by Backshop on Monday, November 8, 2021 1:37 PM

The problem is that some seem to be saying "they're screwing over the American consumer, the powerless little guy".  The fact is, they'd be "screwing over" their best and biggest customers, Walmart, Home Depot and Amazon.  You normally don't try to do that.

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Posted by Convicted One on Monday, November 8, 2021 1:15 PM

Backshop
Who is behind this far-reaching conspiracy?

Just  because an informal group of people are pursuing their self interest, that doesn't require a"conspiracy" to fulfill.

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Posted by Euclid on Monday, November 8, 2021 1:07 PM

What can appear as a conspiracy is often just groups acting in their own self-interest, with several of them having the same interest.  

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