Empire Builder is on the ground in Montana with three dead and 50 injured

[Euclid]

NTSB has released further comment about this derailment without finding any cause for it yet. 

 

https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/montana-amtrak-derailment-investigation-80797321

 

But there is this from the linked article that I find very intriguing.  It raises several points.  First, I think the employee may have spotted evidence of a sun kink.  She describes it as a 30 ft. long dip in the track where the ballast had given away.  That is not exactly the common effect of a sun kink.  However, they do tend to lift the track up, out of the ballast, as they buckle the track.  This would leave a visual impression that the ballast has sunk down between the ties. 

 

But when did this witness see this problem?  What seems really strange is that the witness said she asked a BNSF inspector about it after the crash, and he told her they were aware of the problem and there had been attempts to remediate it.  What does that all mean?  It sounds like the inspector is not sure the attempts were successful. It also sounds like he does not know what was causing that problem. 

 

From the link:

 

“An attorney for an Amtrak employee aboard the train said the female employee told federal investigators last week that following the derailment, she saw a “30 foot dip” along the railroad, where material underneath the track that’s known as the ballast had given way.

 

The employee allegedly talked to a BNSF Railway inspector after the crash, who verified a problem with the ballast and said there had been attempts to remediate it in the days leading up the crash, according to her attorney, Fred Bremseth.

 

Allan Zarembski, who directs the railroad safety program at the University of Delaware, said the NTSB usually won’t name a cause in a preliminary report unless it’s something obvious.

 

Zarembski said photos he reviewed from the crash scene didn’t show any obvious problem with the track.”

 

 

Photos did not show any obvious problem with the track?  How can that be?  The track was heavily damaged during the derailment.  It may be that part of that damage was caused by sun kink that derailed the train, which then caused the rest of the damage.  If there was a problem with the track that existed prior to the derailment, how could that fact possibly be obvious after the derailment?

[tree68]

Whatever are you going to do if the cause turns out not to be a sun kink?

[mudchicken]

Once the wheels hit the ground, the collateral damage obscures the cause. The after-the-fact images will only say so much and your line of thinking sounds defective in its own right. Let Alan Z do his thing and filter the evidence and see what experience and training reasons to be the cause. 

Ever heard of subgrade failure or ballast pockets?

[Euclid]

Here is a hypothetical scenario:  Heat kink buckles straight track vertically, lifting it up and out of the ballast.  Then the track cools and gravity pulls the track back down, but it remains partly above its normal bedding in the ballast. 

 

It looks straight and okay, but the ballast appears to be low.  This might be interpreted as the ballast having sunk, as was reported by the witness.  But the truth is that the track has been raised higher than the top of the ballast.  This leaves the track basically having insufficient lateral stiffness normally provided by proper ballast. 

 

The heat kink potential for this track location remains, and when the Empire Builder runs over it, the track is again under excess compression from thermal expansion.  So this time, not having the enough ballast to resist transverse buckling, the track buckles in the horizontal plane as the train runs over it, and the resulting kink derails the train as it passes over the spot. 

[mudchicken]

Once the wheels hit the ground, the collateral damage obscures the cause. The after-the-fact images will only say so much and your line of thinking sounds defective in its own right. Let Alan Z do his thing and filter the evidence and see what experience and training reasons to be the cause after weighing all the variables.

Ever heard of subgrade failure or ballast pockets?

ps - Alan is well respected in the railway engineering field, but the academics don't always get it right either. If the track was disturbed and surface remediated, there will be a paper trail to follow (documentation will possibly be a crapshoot, but there will be follow-up to chase down event pre-history that will be examined that will be more than just one opinion of one individual with an untrained eye.)

[Euclid]

 

The article cites expert conclusion that two possible causes for the derailment have been determined as follows:

 

1)   A rail that buckled under high heat.

2)   The track giving way when the train passed over.

 

If the ground suddenly subsided under the train, what would the repair consist of? 

 

In this case, a witness reported seeing a 30 foot dip of the track at the derailment site (I assume that means a noticeable dip 30 ft. long). 

 

If this dip of ground was ground subsidence, wouldn’t it have been necessary to excavate down into the subgrade in the entire derailment site in order to find out why the ground subsided?  Wouldn’t it have been necessary to learn weather the cause of the subsidence still existed beyond the actual subsidence that did occur?  If the bad ground did exist beyond the actual subsidence site, it could have derailed another train in the future.

 

Apparently no such extensive investigation was conducted before the track was rebuilt and reopened for train traffic.  So based on that, I conclude that ground subsidence, or what the article refers to as, “the track giving way” did not occur and was ruled out.  That leaves the possibility of, “a rail that buckled under high heat.”

 

In my opinion, the track anomaly described by the one witness referring to it as a 30 ft. dip of the track, is more likely to have been an effect of a sun kink as opposed to the “track giving way” by unexplained ground subsidence.  Maybe what appeared as ballast dropping down from the track was actually track lifting up from the ballast.

 

There is implication in the news reports that the “dip of the track” had been discovered and repaired one of more days prior to the derailment, and that the repair may not have been adequate or may have not lasted.  So far, I have found no news that elaborates on this information. 

 

However, if this is true, and if this was caused by a sun kink, it would suggest that the sun kink potential of over-compressed track may have been on the verge of full buckling, and causing minor track movement into and out of alignment for a few days, with many trains passing over the defect without derailing or even the crew seeing the defect. 

 

https://apnews.com/article/business-montana-accidents-transportation-amtrak-c9ae69ffebb55ebeac0fc2d3a1664f7c

[Electroliner 1935]

quote user="Euclid"] 

The article cites expert conclusion that two possible causes for the derailment have been determined as follows:

 

1)   A rail that buckled under high heat.

2)   The track giving way when the train passed over.

 

If the ground suddenly subsided under the train, what would the repair consist of? 

 

In this case, a witness reported seeing a 30 foot dip of the track at the derailment site (I assume that means a noticeable dip 30 ft. long). 

 

If this dip of ground was ground subsidence, wouldn’t it have been necessary to excavate down into the subgrade in the entire derailment site in order to find out why the ground subsided?  Wouldn’t it have been necessary to learn weather the cause of the subsidence still existed beyond the actual subsidence that did occur?  If the bad ground did exist beyond the actual subsidence site, it could have derailed another train in the future.

 

Apparently no such extensive investigation was conducted before the track was rebuilt and reopened for train traffic.  So based on that, I conclude that ground subsidence, or what the article refers to as, “the track giving way” did not occur and was ruled out.  That leaves the possibility of, “a rail that buckled under high heat.”

 

In my opinion, the track anomaly described by the one witness referring to it as a 30 ft. dip of the track, is more likely to have been an effect of a sun kink as opposed to the “track giving way” by unexplained ground subsidence.  Maybe what appeared as ballast dropping down from the track was actually track lifting up from the ballast.

 

There is implication in the news reports that the “dip of the track” had been discovered and repaired one of more days prior to the derailment, and that the repair may not have been adequate or may have not lasted.  So far, I have found no news that elaborates on this information. 

 

However, if this is true, and if this was caused by a sun kink, it would suggest that the sun kink potential of over-compressed track may have been on the verge of full buckling, and causing minor track movement into and out of alignment for a few days, with many trains passing over the defect without derailing or even the crew seeing the defect. 

 

https://apnews.com/article/business-montana-accidents-transportation-amtrak-c9ae69ffebb55ebeac0fc2d3a1664f7c

 

[/quote]

Let the speculation resume. I will wait for more specific facts such as the video, statments (interview) from t

he engineer, etc. And as for the APNEWS article, I say VERY INTERESTING

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_SVSak1oBCw

[BaltACD]

As far as I am concerned the NTSB should have saved the bits and bytes of that 'report' as no EFFECTIVE communication was done.

[Euclid]

I don’t expect the investigation to ever find the cause of this derailment.  I think they may come up with a probable cause with no actual tangible evidence.  The probable cause may indeed be deemed to have been a track defect with no further details.  The report will then focus mainly on lessons learned about how to make passenger cars safer for the occupants.  Seat belts would have saved lives in this derailment. 

 

If this was caused by a heat kink, ground subsidence, or some other defect related to the recent track work, all of that track that contained the defect would have to be forensically analyzed in great detail.  Obviously there was not time for that because the line needed to be quickly reopened for traffic.  So the track was fully rebuilt and resurfaced to top standards before it could be investigated for possible evidence of the cause of the derailment.   

 

They say they are investigating to learn whether passengers were ejected from the cars.  I would like to know why the answer would not be obvious.

[7j43k]

 

Sun kink:

 

7j43k

 

It was only 84F.  Not exactly a record temperature.  Two months earlier, temperatures were 10 degrees higher.  Shouldn't the derailment have happened then?

 

[BaltACD]

7j43k

Sun kink: 

7j43k

It was only 84F.  Not exactly a record temperature.  Two months earlier, temperatures were 10 degrees higher.  Shouldn't the derailment have happened then?

The right butterfly didn't flap its wings back then.

[Euclid]

7j43k

Sun kink:

  

7j43k

 

It was only 84F.  Not exactly a record temperature. Two months earlier, temperatures were 10 degrees higher.  Shouldn't the derailment have happened then?

Not necessarily. 

 

The temperature at which buckling becomes probable is the rail temperature, not the air temperature.  What was the rail temperature at the time of the wreck?

 

Rail temperature is caused by thermal transfer from air to rail by conduction; and from sun to rail by solar radiation.  These are two entirely different and independent means of thermal transfer.  Transfer by conduction depends on ambient air temperature as the air touches the rails.  Transfer by radiation depends on sun exposure, which in turn depends on the extent to which solar radiation is impeded by clouds, dust, and other contaminants in the air of the atmosphere. 

 

So rail temperature depends on sun exposure and ambient air temperature.  On a cloudy day at say 80 degrees F. ambient temperature, the rail temperature will be lower than on a clear day that is 80 degrees F ambient temperature. 

 

Even if rail temperature was known at the time of the derailment, there are other factors that influence the possible occurrence of sun kinks.  The primary other factor is the strength of the rail anchoring that depends on the system of rail, ties, fasteners, ballast.  I do not know if, or to what extent that strength can vary in the short term.  I assume it can be diminished by performing flawed track maintenance.

 

Another variable is the speed at which heat is transferred to the rail during the day.  During the night; rail, track, and roadbed will lose heat by thermal radiation to the night sky.  The speed of this heat loss will depend on the temperature of deep space and the clarity of the air.  There will also be heat loss from the same components due to thermal conduction to the air.  Basically it is reversal of the daytime effect, but again, there are two independent means of heat transfer causing the cooling of the rail. 

 

Depending on the speed of heat loss at night, and speed of heat gain in the following daytime; rail and the other track components, including the roadbed soil, will warm up at different speeds on different days that have recorded the same daytime high temperature.  In other words, the same recorded high temperature will have occurred at two different times for each of the two days. And again, the actual rail temperature at the time of this derailment was probably much higher than the recorded ambient temperature of 84 degrees F. 

 

There is another possible variable factor to consider.  If this track had been recently worked on, it is possible that its neutral rail temperature was affected and not properly reset.  Such an error could have lowered the upper threshold of rail temperature considered to be safe from buckling.  Then maybe the 84 degree day of the wreck was the warmest day since the mistake in resetting the neutral temperature of the rail. 

 

I am not saying that a sun kink did cause the derailment, only that I believe it is extremely probable.   Also, the only causes mentioned in the speculation of the professionals are a sun kink or other type of track failure. 

[blue streak 1]

Was theere a post about some country strted painting the sides of rail white or a very reflective type to slow the amount of solar heat and also slow cooling ?

[BaltACD]

blue streak 1

Was theere a post about some country strted painting the sides of rail white or a very reflective type to slow the amount of solar heat and also slow cooling ?

That I am aware of, there has been no study published showing benefits/problems with such a action.

[mudchicken]

It has been done in places in this country, including on UP and BNSF.

84 degrees is probably close to the neutral rail temperature that the rail was laid at. (my standard plan book is in the office where it is currently Covid out of bounds for a while here.) Rail temperature (current) is not something that is tracked automatically with the exception of a few HBDs ...

Let the pros do their work. I'm certainly not buying what the wannbe's claim.

BaltACD

 

 

blue streak 1

Was theere a post about some country strted painting the sides of rail white or a very reflective type to slow the amount of solar heat and also slow cooling ?

 

 

That I am aware of, there has been no study published showing benefits/problems with such a action.

 

[Euclid]

Even though the weather temperature at the Montana derailment site on the day of the derailment was reported to be 84, degrees F., I have no idea what the raill temperature actually was at that time.  I also have no idea what the rail neutral temperature is supposed to be at that site, nor whether it was properly established with the track construction. 

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/why-train-tracks-buckle-in-extreme-heat-2013-7#:~:text=In%20direct%20sunshine%2C%20steel%20rails,cause%20for%20delays%20and%20cancellations.

 

From the link:

 

“In direct sunshine, steel rails can be up to 20 C (68 F) hotter than the air temperature, according to Britain's Network Rail. To prevent accidents when the thermometer goes above 46 C (86 F), rail networks require trains to reduce their speed, which is the cause for delays and cancellations. Slower moving trains exert less additional force on the tracks, which helps to prevent buckling.”

 

It looks like 86 degrees F. is the rail temperature that starts to pose a threat of sun kink track buckling.  Rail could have easily been much hotter than the recorded high air ambient temperature of 84 degrees F. on the day of the derailment. 

[BaltACD]

Euclid

...

It looks like 86 degrees F. is the rail temperature that starts to pose a threat of sun kink track buckling.  Rail could have easily been much hotter than the recorded high air ambient temperature of 84 degrees F. on the day of the derailment. 

For CSX the adjusted rail laying temperature is 90 degrees for states North of Virginia.  95 degrees in Virginia and 100 degrees for states South of those identified above.

I have no idea what the BNSF's adjusted rail laying temperatures are.

[Euclid]

PREDICTING TRACK BUCKLES & RAIL PULL-APARTS

 

For jointed rail, I have heard an explanation of a cause of sun kinks as follows:  The theory with jointed rail is that rail expansion is taken up in the small rail end gaps at rail joints, which give room for the rail elongation as rail expands.  Many references describe this function, and they also caution that it is necessary to oil lubricate the rail joints so they don’t freeze from rust.  I have never seen joint oiling being carried out. 

 

Along with this information, I have heard that trains applying their brakes exert a force into the rails that can cause them to bunch together as their joint gaps are closed.  In other words, the brake shoes against the wheels retard wheel rotation, and this retarding force produces a counter force that moves the rail lengthwise.

 

Then the same type of braking force from trains moving in the opposite direction will un-bunch the rail joint slack, or even stretch it completely out by pulling the bunched slack completely out in tension.  So this is like slack action in a long train.

 

So if train traffic has left the rail stretched from this braking force as the day cools down, it may break under tension and pull apart from thermal contraction.  Likewise, if the rail has been left in the bunched condition in the morning, it may heat up and buckle from compression as the day warms.

 

This action raises the question of whether continuous welded rail can likewise be compressed or stretched by the force of train braking that moves the rail. 

 

If this action can also affect welded rail simply by compressing or stretching the solid rail, that leaves a wildcard in the practice of predicting rail pull-apart or buckling.  The wildcard comes from the effect of cumulative train braking and how it compresses or stretches the rail as trains move in either direction.  The wildcard is that the rail temperature alone is not the entire cause of a track failure because train braking can change the effect of the rail having been laid at the so-called “neutral temperature.”

[dehusman]

Euclid

Photos did not show any obvious problem with the track?  How can that be?  The track was heavily damaged during the derailment.  It may be that part of that damage was caused by sun kink that derailed the train, which then caused the rest of the damage.  If there was a problem with the track that existed prior to the derailment, how could that fact possibly be obvious after the derailment?

Three words :  Track Image Recorder

On every train that has gone through that spot.

[Euclid]

dehusman

 

 

Euclid

Photos did not show any obvious problem with the track?  How can that be?  The track was heavily damaged during the derailment.  It may be that part of that damage was caused by sun kink that derailed the train, which then caused the rest of the damage.  If there was a problem with the track that existed prior to the derailment, how could that fact possibly be obvious after the derailment?

 

 

Three words :  Track Image Recorder

On every train that has gone through that spot.

 

My comment that you quoted above was from my first post at the top of this page.  In that quote, my first sentence was in response to what I had quoted from the ideas expressed in that same post from Allan Zarembski.

 

The following is from that first post at the top of this page.  The blue text is information from Mr. Zarembski, and the black text is my response:

 

*******************************************************

 

Allan Zarembski, who directs the railroad safety program at the University of Delaware, said the NTSB usually won’t name a cause in a preliminary report unless it’s something obvious.

 

Zarembski said photos he reviewed from the crash scene didn’t show any obvious problem with the track.”

 

“Photos did not show any obvious problem with the track?  How can that be?  The track was heavily damaged during the derailment.  It may be that part of that damage was caused by sun kink that derailed the train, which then caused the rest of the damage.  If there was a problem with the track that existed prior to the derailment, how could that fact possibly be obvious after the derailment?”

 

*******************************************************

 

My only point was to ask how Mr. Zarembski, when looking at photos of the crash scene, did not see “any obvious problem with the track”

 

What is the connection of your comment about “Track Image Recorder” and my comment that you quoted?  And then aside from that, what would the Track Image Recorder have shown in this case?

 

I am not disputing your information, but just trying to understand it. 

[BaltACD]

dehusman

 

Euclid

Photos did not show any obvious problem with the track?  How can that be?  The track was heavily damaged during the derailment.  It may be that part of that damage was caused by sun kink that derailed the train, which then caused the rest of the damage.  If there was a problem with the track that existed prior to the derailment, how could that fact possibly be obvious after the derailment? 

Three words :  Track Image Recorder

On every train that has gone through that spot.

To the extent that locomotives have forward facing video recorders, they already have Track Image Recording.  

Remember, a train moving over any segment of track is like a vibrator with each wheel/axle set placing its load on the footprint of its wheelsets on top of the rail for the instant that that footprint exists at that specific loction - as the train continues to pass, each succeding wheelset places its load on that specific loction.  Between the wheelsets placing their load on the specific location, the load is released.  The continuing application and release of load on the specific location of the wheel/rail footprint becomes vibratory in nature as each succeding wheelset does its thing.

The vibration of a train in motion is one of the things that can cause a 'sun kink' to happen UNDER the moving train.  In the Empire Builders case - it would APPEAR that no track anomaly was viewed from the forward facing video of the lead locomotive, that the two engines and head two cars were not derailed would indicate whatever track related issue that may have caused the derailment took place as the train was moving across the specific point that caused the issues.

[Euclid]

BaltACD

 

 

To the extent that locomotives have forward facing video recorders, they already have Track Image Recording.  

Remember, a train moving over any segment of track is like a vibrator with each wheel/axle set placing its load on the footprint of its wheelsets on top of the rail for the instant that that footprint exists at that specific loction - as the train continues to pass, each succeding wheelset places its load on that specific loction.  Between the wheelsets placing their load on the specific location, the load is released.  The continuing application and release of load on the specific location of the wheel/rail footprint becomes vibratory in nature as each succeding wheelset does its thing.

The vibration of a train in motion is one of the things that can cause a 'sun kink' to happen UNDER the moving train.  In the Empire Builders case - it would APPEAR that no track anomaly was viewed from the forward facing video of the lead locomotive, that the two engines and head two cars were not derailed would indicate whatever track related issue that may have caused the derailment took place as the train was moving across the specific point that caused the issues.

 

I agree with all of your points about how the train loading action imparted to the rail can cause a latent sun kink to “run” and become a manifested sun kink while the train is passing over the site.    Latent sun kinks consist only of track that is under excessive compression from heat expansion, but no observable damage has yet to occur.  If they cool off in time, they may never run and turn into a manifested sun kink.   

 

If they do run, the cause is just the compression increasing as expansion continues until it finally reaches the rail/track buckling threshold.  Then the track buckles often in an explosive manner due to the rapid releasing of spring energy stored up in the over compressed rail. 

 

However, if this over compression is at or near the buckling threshold, the physical action of a passing train may actually trigger the latent sun kink to run and buckle the track.  In fact, I am of the opinion that this is exactly how the Montana derailment was caused.  I suspect there was a latent sun kink that may have existed for several days prior to the derailment.  Then one day, the latent kink had reached the critical state of compression, and the passing Amtrak train triggered the buckling event.  Up until that point of derailment, nobody knew of the latent sun kink that was there.  Many trains may have passed over it while it was in its latent form.

 

So the latent sun kink manifested under the passing train, buckling the track into a serious misalignment that was sufficient to derail the train as it passed over.

 

If we could stop the action right at that point, we would find the obvious track misalignment including the sharply bent rails and side-shifted ties that were partly pulled out of the ballast bed.  We would see the first wheel to hit the ground as it did so.  So if we could stop the action right at that point, we could see the cause of the derailment being a sun kink that ran and manifested as the train was passing over it. 

 

But we cannot stop the action, and so the derailment continued without anyone seeing the cause.  And by the time the train finished derailing, probably most of the physical evidence of the sun kink had been obliterated by the continuing track destruction caused by the derailment.

[Backshop]

Euclid is channeling overmod!

[BaltACD]

Euclid

 

BaltACD 

To the extent that locomotives have forward facing video recorders, they already have Track Image Recording.  

Remember, a train moving over any segment of track is like a vibrator with each wheel/axle set placing its load on the footprint of its wheelsets on top of the rail for the instant that that footprint exists at that specific loction - as the train continues to pass, each succeding wheelset places its load on that specific loction.  Between the wheelsets placing their load on the specific location, the load is released.  The continuing application and release of load on the specific location of the wheel/rail footprint becomes vibratory in nature as each succeding wheelset does its thing.

The vibration of a train in motion is one of the things that can cause a 'sun kink' to happen UNDER the moving train.  In the Empire Builders case - it would APPEAR that no track anomaly was viewed from the forward facing video of the lead locomotive, that the two engines and head two cars were not derailed would indicate whatever track related issue that may have caused the derailment took place as the train was moving across the specific point that caused the issues. 

I agree with all of your points about how the train loading action imparted to the rail can cause a latent sun kink to “run” and become a manifested sun kink while the train is passing over the site.    Latent sun kinks consist only of track that is under excessive compression from heat expansion, but no observable damage has yet to occur.  If they cool off in time, they may never run and turn into a manifested sun kink.   

 

If they do run, the cause is just the compression increasing as expansion continues until it finally reaches the rail/track buckling threshold.  Then the track buckles often in an explosive manner due to the rapid releasing of spring energy stored up in the over compressed rail. 

 

However, if this over compression is at or near the buckling threshold, the physical action of a passing train may actually trigger the latent sun kink to run and buckle the track.  In fact, I am of the opinion that this is exactly how the Montana derailment was caused.  I suspect there was a latent sun kink that may have existed for several days prior to the derailment.  Then one day, the latent kink had reached the critical state of compression, and the passing Amtrak train triggered the buckling event.  Up until that point of derailment, nobody knew of the latent sun kink that was there.  Many trains may have passed over it while it was in its latent form.

 

So the latent sun kink manifested under the passing train, buckling the track into a serious misalignment that was sufficient to derail the train as it passed over.

 

If we could stop the action right at that point, we would find the obvious track misalignment including the sharply bent rails and side-shifted ties that were partly pulled out of the ballast bed.  We would see the first wheel to hit the ground as it did so.  So if we could stop the action right at that point, we could see the cause of the derailment being a sun kink that ran and manifested as the train was passing over it. 

 

But we cannot stop the action, and so the derailment continued without anyone seeing the cause.  And by the time the train finished derailing, probably most of the physical evidence of the sun kink had been obliterated by the continuing track destruction caused by the derailment.

Experienced rail accident investigators in being able to view the entirety of the scene first hand on the ground and being able to view ALL of the elements of the track structure as well as the elements of the car structure will be able to define a accurate cause.  Evidence does not get obliterated.

None of us viewing pictures and/or videos are in that position.

[Euclid]

There is one more point to consider.   If there was a sun kink that ran as the train was passing over it and thus derailed the train, it is possible that the sun kink would have left physical evidence that did survive the track damage caused by the derailment.   If so, it is possible that the sun kink damage was not carefully looked for or discovered because its appearance blended into the derailment damage.  Then when the track was restored quickly to get trains moving again, the sun kink damage was completely erased without ever having been recognized.   

[BaltACD]

Euclid

There is one more point to consider.   If there was a sun kink that ran as the train was passing over it and thus derailed the train, it is possible that the sun kink would have left physical evidence that did survive the track damage caused by the derailment.   If so, it is possible that the sun kink damage was not carefully looked for or discovered because its appearance blended into the derailment damage.  Then when the track was restored quickly to get trains moving again, the sun kink damage was completely erased without ever having been recognized.   

We have not been provided definitive information by anyone, not BNSF, not Amtrak, not NTSB, not FRA, NOT ANYONE.  We as outsiders KNOW NOTHING.

The only thing the NTSB has informed us of has been that the train was not exceeding track speed, the air temperature was 84 degrees and the brake application initiated from the train, not the engineer applying the brakes.

[Euclid]

BaltACD

 

 

Euclid

There is one more point to consider.   If there was a sun kink that ran as the train was passing over it and thus derailed the train, it is possible that the sun kink would have left physical evidence that did survive the track damage caused by the derailment.   If so, it is possible that the sun kink damage was not carefully looked for or discovered because its appearance blended into the derailment damage.  Then when the track was restored quickly to get trains moving again, the sun kink damage was completely erased without ever having been recognized.   

 

 

We have not been provided definitive information by anyone, not BNSF, not Amtrak, not NTSB, not FRA, NOT ANYONE.  We as outsiders KNOW NOTHING.

The only thing the NTSB has informed us of has been that the train was not exceeding track speed, the air temperature was 84 degrees and the brake application initiated from the train, not the engineer applying the brakes.

 

I have no problem with people waiting for the NTSB to provide definitive information.  I look forward to it.  In the meantime, there is plenty for “we as outsiders” to consider. 

[Overmod]

I have no problem with people waiting for the NTSB to provide definitive information.  I look forward to it.  In the meantime, there is plenty for “we as outsiders” to consider.

However, in the absence of definitive information, there is little if any actual sense in further 'consideration'.  That is particularly true if it involves dog-with-a-bone repetition of truisms or dog-returning-to-vomit endless rehash of the same idea in different wordings.

Just wait for definitive discussions of actual cause.  Or if you hear rumors, check and cite the source first if you feel the need to comment on them.

[tree68]

But, but...  It just HAS to be....

[Electroliner 1935]

Euclid

If so, it is possible that....

Many things are possible. Facts are Facts. They are for the STB to determine. Until they release their findings everything else is YAP Yap YAP. The one thing I KNOW IS IMPOSSIBLE is me getting pregnant. Take it from there.