Empire Builder is on the ground in Montana with three dead and 50 injured

[PNWRMNM]

Euclid

I wonder what happens in a case like this if the NTSB simply cannot find the cause of the derailment?

 

The odds of an admission like that are very low, but if they find no cause, they will repeat a bunch of recommendations they have made elsewhere.

Beat the drum. Be important!

Mac

[Euclid]

I wonder what happens in a case like this if the NTSB simply cannot find the cause of the derailment?

[blue streak 1]

The wreck pictres did show the inside rail broken.  that might have been caused by the train striking the rail NE of collision that relieved stress on that rail allowing a sun kink?

[Euclid]

Fred M Cain

It's now been just a couple of months shy of a year since this derailment in Montana.  Are there any clues yet as to what might have caused it?  I was hoping to hear something by now.  Searching Google news has turned up nothing recent.

Maybe the NTSB needs more time but I was also wondering about the possibility that we might never know.

The wreck of the Southwest Chief in Missouri was tragic but at least we know what happened there.

 

I have not seen any other news on it since it happened and was intially covered.  I am not expecting any more news until 18 months at least.  I am quite interested in the cause of that derailment.  

[Fred M Cain]

It's now been just a couple of months shy of a year since this derailment in Montana.  Are there any clues yet as to what might have caused it?  I was hoping to hear something by now.  Searching Google news has turned up nothing recent.

Maybe the NTSB needs more time but I was also wondering about the possibility that we might never know.

The wreck of the Southwest Chief in Missouri was tragic but at least we know what happened there.

[Euclid]

Overmod

 

 

I have no problem with people waiting for the NTSB to provide definitive information.  I look forward to it.  In the meantime, there is plenty for “we as outsiders” to consider.

 

 

However, in the absence of definitive information, there is little if any actual sense in further 'consideration'.  That is particularly true if it involves dog-with-a-bone repetition of truisms or dog-returning-to-vomit endless rehash of the same idea in different wordings.

 

Just wait for definitive discussions of actual cause.  Or if you hear rumors, check and cite the source first if you feel the need to comment on them.

 

I disagree.  There is plenty of worthwhile discussion related to the derailment, and particularly to its cause.  I follow the rules here.  I don’t hijack threads, start off-topic threads, or insult others.  I don’t go into other threads and lecture the participants about the nature of their discussion.

[Electroliner 1935]

Euclid

If so, it is possible that....

Many things are possible. Facts are Facts. They are for the STB to determine. Until they release their findings everything else is YAP Yap YAP. The one thing I KNOW IS IMPOSSIBLE is me getting pregnant. Take it from there.

[tree68]

But, but...  It just HAS to be....

[Overmod]

I have no problem with people waiting for the NTSB to provide definitive information.  I look forward to it.  In the meantime, there is plenty for “we as outsiders” to consider.

However, in the absence of definitive information, there is little if any actual sense in further 'consideration'.  That is particularly true if it involves dog-with-a-bone repetition of truisms or dog-returning-to-vomit endless rehash of the same idea in different wordings.

Just wait for definitive discussions of actual cause.  Or if you hear rumors, check and cite the source first if you feel the need to comment on them.

[Euclid]

BaltACD

 

 

Euclid

There is one more point to consider.   If there was a sun kink that ran as the train was passing over it and thus derailed the train, it is possible that the sun kink would have left physical evidence that did survive the track damage caused by the derailment.   If so, it is possible that the sun kink damage was not carefully looked for or discovered because its appearance blended into the derailment damage.  Then when the track was restored quickly to get trains moving again, the sun kink damage was completely erased without ever having been recognized.   

 

 

We have not been provided definitive information by anyone, not BNSF, not Amtrak, not NTSB, not FRA, NOT ANYONE.  We as outsiders KNOW NOTHING.

The only thing the NTSB has informed us of has been that the train was not exceeding track speed, the air temperature was 84 degrees and the brake application initiated from the train, not the engineer applying the brakes.

 

I have no problem with people waiting for the NTSB to provide definitive information.  I look forward to it.  In the meantime, there is plenty for “we as outsiders” to consider. 

[BaltACD]

Euclid

There is one more point to consider.   If there was a sun kink that ran as the train was passing over it and thus derailed the train, it is possible that the sun kink would have left physical evidence that did survive the track damage caused by the derailment.   If so, it is possible that the sun kink damage was not carefully looked for or discovered because its appearance blended into the derailment damage.  Then when the track was restored quickly to get trains moving again, the sun kink damage was completely erased without ever having been recognized.   

We have not been provided definitive information by anyone, not BNSF, not Amtrak, not NTSB, not FRA, NOT ANYONE.  We as outsiders KNOW NOTHING.

The only thing the NTSB has informed us of has been that the train was not exceeding track speed, the air temperature was 84 degrees and the brake application initiated from the train, not the engineer applying the brakes.

[Euclid]

There is one more point to consider.   If there was a sun kink that ran as the train was passing over it and thus derailed the train, it is possible that the sun kink would have left physical evidence that did survive the track damage caused by the derailment.   If so, it is possible that the sun kink damage was not carefully looked for or discovered because its appearance blended into the derailment damage.  Then when the track was restored quickly to get trains moving again, the sun kink damage was completely erased without ever having been recognized.   

[BaltACD]

Euclid

 

BaltACD 

To the extent that locomotives have forward facing video recorders, they already have Track Image Recording.  

Remember, a train moving over any segment of track is like a vibrator with each wheel/axle set placing its load on the footprint of its wheelsets on top of the rail for the instant that that footprint exists at that specific loction - as the train continues to pass, each succeding wheelset places its load on that specific loction.  Between the wheelsets placing their load on the specific location, the load is released.  The continuing application and release of load on the specific location of the wheel/rail footprint becomes vibratory in nature as each succeding wheelset does its thing.

The vibration of a train in motion is one of the things that can cause a 'sun kink' to happen UNDER the moving train.  In the Empire Builders case - it would APPEAR that no track anomaly was viewed from the forward facing video of the lead locomotive, that the two engines and head two cars were not derailed would indicate whatever track related issue that may have caused the derailment took place as the train was moving across the specific point that caused the issues. 

I agree with all of your points about how the train loading action imparted to the rail can cause a latent sun kink to “run” and become a manifested sun kink while the train is passing over the site.    Latent sun kinks consist only of track that is under excessive compression from heat expansion, but no observable damage has yet to occur.  If they cool off in time, they may never run and turn into a manifested sun kink.   

 

If they do run, the cause is just the compression increasing as expansion continues until it finally reaches the rail/track buckling threshold.  Then the track buckles often in an explosive manner due to the rapid releasing of spring energy stored up in the over compressed rail. 

 

However, if this over compression is at or near the buckling threshold, the physical action of a passing train may actually trigger the latent sun kink to run and buckle the track.  In fact, I am of the opinion that this is exactly how the Montana derailment was caused.  I suspect there was a latent sun kink that may have existed for several days prior to the derailment.  Then one day, the latent kink had reached the critical state of compression, and the passing Amtrak train triggered the buckling event.  Up until that point of derailment, nobody knew of the latent sun kink that was there.  Many trains may have passed over it while it was in its latent form.

 

So the latent sun kink manifested under the passing train, buckling the track into a serious misalignment that was sufficient to derail the train as it passed over.

 

If we could stop the action right at that point, we would find the obvious track misalignment including the sharply bent rails and side-shifted ties that were partly pulled out of the ballast bed.  We would see the first wheel to hit the ground as it did so.  So if we could stop the action right at that point, we could see the cause of the derailment being a sun kink that ran and manifested as the train was passing over it. 

 

But we cannot stop the action, and so the derailment continued without anyone seeing the cause.  And by the time the train finished derailing, probably most of the physical evidence of the sun kink had been obliterated by the continuing track destruction caused by the derailment.

Experienced rail accident investigators in being able to view the entirety of the scene first hand on the ground and being able to view ALL of the elements of the track structure as well as the elements of the car structure will be able to define a accurate cause.  Evidence does not get obliterated.

None of us viewing pictures and/or videos are in that position.

[Backshop]

Euclid is channeling overmod!

[Euclid]

BaltACD

 

 

To the extent that locomotives have forward facing video recorders, they already have Track Image Recording.  

Remember, a train moving over any segment of track is like a vibrator with each wheel/axle set placing its load on the footprint of its wheelsets on top of the rail for the instant that that footprint exists at that specific loction - as the train continues to pass, each succeding wheelset places its load on that specific loction.  Between the wheelsets placing their load on the specific location, the load is released.  The continuing application and release of load on the specific location of the wheel/rail footprint becomes vibratory in nature as each succeding wheelset does its thing.

The vibration of a train in motion is one of the things that can cause a 'sun kink' to happen UNDER the moving train.  In the Empire Builders case - it would APPEAR that no track anomaly was viewed from the forward facing video of the lead locomotive, that the two engines and head two cars were not derailed would indicate whatever track related issue that may have caused the derailment took place as the train was moving across the specific point that caused the issues.

 

I agree with all of your points about how the train loading action imparted to the rail can cause a latent sun kink to “run” and become a manifested sun kink while the train is passing over the site.    Latent sun kinks consist only of track that is under excessive compression from heat expansion, but no observable damage has yet to occur.  If they cool off in time, they may never run and turn into a manifested sun kink.   

 

If they do run, the cause is just the compression increasing as expansion continues until it finally reaches the rail/track buckling threshold.  Then the track buckles often in an explosive manner due to the rapid releasing of spring energy stored up in the over compressed rail. 

 

However, if this over compression is at or near the buckling threshold, the physical action of a passing train may actually trigger the latent sun kink to run and buckle the track.  In fact, I am of the opinion that this is exactly how the Montana derailment was caused.  I suspect there was a latent sun kink that may have existed for several days prior to the derailment.  Then one day, the latent kink had reached the critical state of compression, and the passing Amtrak train triggered the buckling event.  Up until that point of derailment, nobody knew of the latent sun kink that was there.  Many trains may have passed over it while it was in its latent form.

 

So the latent sun kink manifested under the passing train, buckling the track into a serious misalignment that was sufficient to derail the train as it passed over.

 

If we could stop the action right at that point, we would find the obvious track misalignment including the sharply bent rails and side-shifted ties that were partly pulled out of the ballast bed.  We would see the first wheel to hit the ground as it did so.  So if we could stop the action right at that point, we could see the cause of the derailment being a sun kink that ran and manifested as the train was passing over it. 

 

But we cannot stop the action, and so the derailment continued without anyone seeing the cause.  And by the time the train finished derailing, probably most of the physical evidence of the sun kink had been obliterated by the continuing track destruction caused by the derailment.

[BaltACD]

dehusman

 

Euclid

Photos did not show any obvious problem with the track?  How can that be?  The track was heavily damaged during the derailment.  It may be that part of that damage was caused by sun kink that derailed the train, which then caused the rest of the damage.  If there was a problem with the track that existed prior to the derailment, how could that fact possibly be obvious after the derailment? 

Three words :  Track Image Recorder

On every train that has gone through that spot.

To the extent that locomotives have forward facing video recorders, they already have Track Image Recording.  

Remember, a train moving over any segment of track is like a vibrator with each wheel/axle set placing its load on the footprint of its wheelsets on top of the rail for the instant that that footprint exists at that specific loction - as the train continues to pass, each succeding wheelset places its load on that specific loction.  Between the wheelsets placing their load on the specific location, the load is released.  The continuing application and release of load on the specific location of the wheel/rail footprint becomes vibratory in nature as each succeding wheelset does its thing.

The vibration of a train in motion is one of the things that can cause a 'sun kink' to happen UNDER the moving train.  In the Empire Builders case - it would APPEAR that no track anomaly was viewed from the forward facing video of the lead locomotive, that the two engines and head two cars were not derailed would indicate whatever track related issue that may have caused the derailment took place as the train was moving across the specific point that caused the issues.

[Euclid]

dehusman

 

 

Euclid

Photos did not show any obvious problem with the track?  How can that be?  The track was heavily damaged during the derailment.  It may be that part of that damage was caused by sun kink that derailed the train, which then caused the rest of the damage.  If there was a problem with the track that existed prior to the derailment, how could that fact possibly be obvious after the derailment?

 

 

Three words :  Track Image Recorder

On every train that has gone through that spot.

 

My comment that you quoted above was from my first post at the top of this page.  In that quote, my first sentence was in response to what I had quoted from the ideas expressed in that same post from Allan Zarembski.

 

The following is from that first post at the top of this page.  The blue text is information from Mr. Zarembski, and the black text is my response:

 

*******************************************************

 

Allan Zarembski, who directs the railroad safety program at the University of Delaware, said the NTSB usually won’t name a cause in a preliminary report unless it’s something obvious.

 

Zarembski said photos he reviewed from the crash scene didn’t show any obvious problem with the track.”

 

“Photos did not show any obvious problem with the track?  How can that be?  The track was heavily damaged during the derailment.  It may be that part of that damage was caused by sun kink that derailed the train, which then caused the rest of the damage.  If there was a problem with the track that existed prior to the derailment, how could that fact possibly be obvious after the derailment?”

 

*******************************************************

 

My only point was to ask how Mr. Zarembski, when looking at photos of the crash scene, did not see “any obvious problem with the track”

 

What is the connection of your comment about “Track Image Recorder” and my comment that you quoted?  And then aside from that, what would the Track Image Recorder have shown in this case?

 

I am not disputing your information, but just trying to understand it. 

[dehusman]

Euclid

Photos did not show any obvious problem with the track?  How can that be?  The track was heavily damaged during the derailment.  It may be that part of that damage was caused by sun kink that derailed the train, which then caused the rest of the damage.  If there was a problem with the track that existed prior to the derailment, how could that fact possibly be obvious after the derailment?

Three words :  Track Image Recorder

On every train that has gone through that spot.

[Euclid]

PREDICTING TRACK BUCKLES & RAIL PULL-APARTS

 

For jointed rail, I have heard an explanation of a cause of sun kinks as follows:  The theory with jointed rail is that rail expansion is taken up in the small rail end gaps at rail joints, which give room for the rail elongation as rail expands.  Many references describe this function, and they also caution that it is necessary to oil lubricate the rail joints so they don’t freeze from rust.  I have never seen joint oiling being carried out. 

 

Along with this information, I have heard that trains applying their brakes exert a force into the rails that can cause them to bunch together as their joint gaps are closed.  In other words, the brake shoes against the wheels retard wheel rotation, and this retarding force produces a counter force that moves the rail lengthwise.

 

Then the same type of braking force from trains moving in the opposite direction will un-bunch the rail joint slack, or even stretch it completely out by pulling the bunched slack completely out in tension.  So this is like slack action in a long train.

 

So if train traffic has left the rail stretched from this braking force as the day cools down, it may break under tension and pull apart from thermal contraction.  Likewise, if the rail has been left in the bunched condition in the morning, it may heat up and buckle from compression as the day warms.

 

This action raises the question of whether continuous welded rail can likewise be compressed or stretched by the force of train braking that moves the rail. 

 

If this action can also affect welded rail simply by compressing or stretching the solid rail, that leaves a wildcard in the practice of predicting rail pull-apart or buckling.  The wildcard comes from the effect of cumulative train braking and how it compresses or stretches the rail as trains move in either direction.  The wildcard is that the rail temperature alone is not the entire cause of a track failure because train braking can change the effect of the rail having been laid at the so-called “neutral temperature.”

[BaltACD]

Euclid

...

It looks like 86 degrees F. is the rail temperature that starts to pose a threat of sun kink track buckling.  Rail could have easily been much hotter than the recorded high air ambient temperature of 84 degrees F. on the day of the derailment. 

For CSX the adjusted rail laying temperature is 90 degrees for states North of Virginia.  95 degrees in Virginia and 100 degrees for states South of those identified above.

I have no idea what the BNSF's adjusted rail laying temperatures are.

[Euclid]

Even though the weather temperature at the Montana derailment site on the day of the derailment was reported to be 84, degrees F., I have no idea what the raill temperature actually was at that time.  I also have no idea what the rail neutral temperature is supposed to be at that site, nor whether it was properly established with the track construction. 

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/why-train-tracks-buckle-in-extreme-heat-2013-7#:~:text=In%20direct%20sunshine%2C%20steel%20rails,cause%20for%20delays%20and%20cancellations.

 

From the link:

 

“In direct sunshine, steel rails can be up to 20 C (68 F) hotter than the air temperature, according to Britain's Network Rail. To prevent accidents when the thermometer goes above 46 C (86 F), rail networks require trains to reduce their speed, which is the cause for delays and cancellations. Slower moving trains exert less additional force on the tracks, which helps to prevent buckling.”

 

It looks like 86 degrees F. is the rail temperature that starts to pose a threat of sun kink track buckling.  Rail could have easily been much hotter than the recorded high air ambient temperature of 84 degrees F. on the day of the derailment. 

[mudchicken]

It has been done in places in this country, including on UP and BNSF.

84 degrees is probably close to the neutral rail temperature that the rail was laid at. (my standard plan book is in the office where it is currently Covid out of bounds for a while here.) Rail temperature (current) is not something that is tracked automatically with the exception of a few HBDs ...

Let the pros do their work. I'm certainly not buying what the wannbe's claim.

BaltACD

 

 

blue streak 1

Was theere a post about some country strted painting the sides of rail white or a very reflective type to slow the amount of solar heat and also slow cooling ?

 

 

That I am aware of, there has been no study published showing benefits/problems with such a action.

 

[BaltACD]

blue streak 1

Was theere a post about some country strted painting the sides of rail white or a very reflective type to slow the amount of solar heat and also slow cooling ?

That I am aware of, there has been no study published showing benefits/problems with such a action.

[blue streak 1]

Was theere a post about some country strted painting the sides of rail white or a very reflective type to slow the amount of solar heat and also slow cooling ?

[Euclid]

7j43k

Sun kink:

  

7j43k

 

It was only 84F.  Not exactly a record temperature. Two months earlier, temperatures were 10 degrees higher.  Shouldn't the derailment have happened then?

Not necessarily. 

 

The temperature at which buckling becomes probable is the rail temperature, not the air temperature.  What was the rail temperature at the time of the wreck?

 

Rail temperature is caused by thermal transfer from air to rail by conduction; and from sun to rail by solar radiation.  These are two entirely different and independent means of thermal transfer.  Transfer by conduction depends on ambient air temperature as the air touches the rails.  Transfer by radiation depends on sun exposure, which in turn depends on the extent to which solar radiation is impeded by clouds, dust, and other contaminants in the air of the atmosphere. 

 

So rail temperature depends on sun exposure and ambient air temperature.  On a cloudy day at say 80 degrees F. ambient temperature, the rail temperature will be lower than on a clear day that is 80 degrees F ambient temperature. 

 

Even if rail temperature was known at the time of the derailment, there are other factors that influence the possible occurrence of sun kinks.  The primary other factor is the strength of the rail anchoring that depends on the system of rail, ties, fasteners, ballast.  I do not know if, or to what extent that strength can vary in the short term.  I assume it can be diminished by performing flawed track maintenance.

 

Another variable is the speed at which heat is transferred to the rail during the day.  During the night; rail, track, and roadbed will lose heat by thermal radiation to the night sky.  The speed of this heat loss will depend on the temperature of deep space and the clarity of the air.  There will also be heat loss from the same components due to thermal conduction to the air.  Basically it is reversal of the daytime effect, but again, there are two independent means of heat transfer causing the cooling of the rail. 

 

Depending on the speed of heat loss at night, and speed of heat gain in the following daytime; rail and the other track components, including the roadbed soil, will warm up at different speeds on different days that have recorded the same daytime high temperature.  In other words, the same recorded high temperature will have occurred at two different times for each of the two days. And again, the actual rail temperature at the time of this derailment was probably much higher than the recorded ambient temperature of 84 degrees F. 

 

There is another possible variable factor to consider.  If this track had been recently worked on, it is possible that its neutral rail temperature was affected and not properly reset.  Such an error could have lowered the upper threshold of rail temperature considered to be safe from buckling.  Then maybe the 84 degree day of the wreck was the warmest day since the mistake in resetting the neutral temperature of the rail. 

 

I am not saying that a sun kink did cause the derailment, only that I believe it is extremely probable.   Also, the only causes mentioned in the speculation of the professionals are a sun kink or other type of track failure. 

[BaltACD]

7j43k

Sun kink: 

7j43k

It was only 84F.  Not exactly a record temperature.  Two months earlier, temperatures were 10 degrees higher.  Shouldn't the derailment have happened then?

The right butterfly didn't flap its wings back then.

[7j43k]

 

Sun kink:

 

7j43k

 

It was only 84F.  Not exactly a record temperature.  Two months earlier, temperatures were 10 degrees higher.  Shouldn't the derailment have happened then?

 

[Euclid]

I don’t expect the investigation to ever find the cause of this derailment.  I think they may come up with a probable cause with no actual tangible evidence.  The probable cause may indeed be deemed to have been a track defect with no further details.  The report will then focus mainly on lessons learned about how to make passenger cars safer for the occupants.  Seat belts would have saved lives in this derailment. 

 

If this was caused by a heat kink, ground subsidence, or some other defect related to the recent track work, all of that track that contained the defect would have to be forensically analyzed in great detail.  Obviously there was not time for that because the line needed to be quickly reopened for traffic.  So the track was fully rebuilt and resurfaced to top standards before it could be investigated for possible evidence of the cause of the derailment.   

 

They say they are investigating to learn whether passengers were ejected from the cars.  I would like to know why the answer would not be obvious.

[BaltACD]

As far as I am concerned the NTSB should have saved the bits and bytes of that 'report' as no EFFECTIVE communication was done.