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Railroading in 2040 article page 36 November issue

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Posted by daveklepper on Friday, October 23, 2020 3:39 AM

My cntribution to this discussion concerns electrification with decent locomotive utilization and reducing change-of-engine stops:

And all units can also be used indeoendently.

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Posted by jeffhergert on Thursday, October 22, 2020 11:33 PM

oltmannd

 

 
oltmannd

 

 
jeffhergert
And I don't expect they'll allow a lone employee to listen to music while toolin' down the rails.  

 

Agree.  Not happenin'

 

 
jeffhergert
Once with PTC working, you don't see other trains on the operating map display.  I doubt in the future this will change.  There's no reason for it.  While it's always nice to know why you're getting hosed at a control point, it's not critical information the train crew necessarily needs to know

 

Only if "why" becomes "why not" from a managment perspective.  Getting the dispatcher's track line view into the cab display is really easy to do.  Can't hurt.  Might help.  Improves employee moral.  You want employees to act like owners, treat them like owners.

 

 
jeffhergert
Plus, if you have the PTC screen why do you still have a cab signal? 

 

Yep.  No cab.

 

 

 

On second thought...  Still no cab signal display, but you might have the coded track circuits that are the backbone of cab signalling functioning as part of PTC.  

Right now, you can have cab without wayside block signals - just distant and home signals for interlockings.  By 2040, I'd be a big chunk of the wayside signal hardware is gone.

 

The former CNW east/west main was sans wayside signals in most areas across Iowa.  Outside of interlockings and the approach to them, there were only a few places where waysides were in place for use by trains off of other secondary/branch lines that needed to use a portion of the ATC/cab signal equipped main.  This allowed trains from those other lines to use engines that weren't ATC equipped.

When UP started installing new, and upgrading existing CNW installed, CTC they added wayside signals.  Trains operating on the main line (outside of those spots already mentioned) had to have operative ATC equipped engines.  (Or at least have passed a departure test before entering the territory.)  But when the ATC failed, waysides could be the difference from running restricted speed because the dispatcher couldn't authorize an absolute block.  At least with waysides you could run 40 mph without the absolute block.  However because PTC, like ATC and other systems before it, will at times fail the waysides are a nice back up. 

Really, with working PTC you don't even need home signals or distant signals.  The PTC display shows how you're lined up at switches and if you have a signal to proceed or not where the absolute is located.  Track block circuits for broken rail protection would show up just as it does now for a signal block that shows an occupancy and allows entry at restricted speed. 

Within the last 10 days I've had two trips where PTC was defective and we ran ATC/cab signals with waysides.  You go from being able to see what's instore a 6 miles ahead (PTC) to wondering what's going to happen a mile or so ahead when the next governing signal lights up.

Jeff    

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Posted by zugmann on Thursday, October 22, 2020 7:03 PM

oltmannd
Right now, you can have cab without wayside block signals - just distant and home signals for interlockings.  By 2040, I'd be a big chunk of the wayside signal hardware is gone.

A lto of places even got rid of the distant to the home signals.  Home signals, cab signals - and that's it. 

It's been fun.  But it isn't much fun anymore.   Signing off for now. 


  

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Posted by oltmannd on Thursday, October 22, 2020 3:32 PM

oltmannd

 

 
jeffhergert
And I don't expect they'll allow a lone employee to listen to music while toolin' down the rails.  

 

Agree.  Not happenin'

 

 
jeffhergert
Once with PTC working, you don't see other trains on the operating map display.  I doubt in the future this will change.  There's no reason for it.  While it's always nice to know why you're getting hosed at a control point, it's not critical information the train crew necessarily needs to know

 

Only if "why" becomes "why not" from a managment perspective.  Getting the dispatcher's track line view into the cab display is really easy to do.  Can't hurt.  Might help.  Improves employee moral.  You want employees to act like owners, treat them like owners.

 

 
jeffhergert
Plus, if you have the PTC screen why do you still have a cab signal? 

 

Yep.  No cab.

 

On second thought...  Still no cab signal display, but you might have the coded track circuits that are the backbone of cab signalling functioning as part of PTC.  

Right now, you can have cab without wayside block signals - just distant and home signals for interlockings.  By 2040, I'd be a big chunk of the wayside signal hardware is gone.

-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/

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Posted by SD60MAC9500 on Monday, October 19, 2020 4:59 PM
 

jeffhergert

UP 8517, an SD70ACe.  I was the third engineer to have it on it's maiden run out of Chicago.  The odometer on the computer screen was about 335 when I got on it.  The new, fresh paint smell was almost intoxicating.

When the odometer said about 405, we struck the iceberg.  The traction motor on the lead axle froze up.  A brand new locomotive and it failed.  Who woulda thunk it.

Jeff

 

That was a treat too see that order when your guys ACe's started delivery back in 2005. I remember seeing that unit in Port Huron. brand new out of London GMDD back in 2006. CN was delivering your guys new ACe's out of Canada. When those ACe's were on the property after hearing some T&E folks those units weren't such a treat to operate...

 
Rahhhhhhhhh!!!!
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Posted by BaltACD on Monday, October 19, 2020 4:56 PM

jeffhergert
UP 8517, an SD70ACe.  I was the third engineer to have it on it's maiden run out of Chicago.  The odometer on the computer screen was about 335 when I got on it.  The new, fresh paint smell was almost intoxicating.

When the odometer said about 405, we struck the iceberg.  The traction motor on the lead axle froze up.  A brand new locomotive and it failed.  Who woulda thunk it.

Jeff

Infant mortality! Or at least a bad case of colic.

Never too old to have a happy childhood!

              

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Posted by jeffhergert on Monday, October 19, 2020 4:50 PM

UP 8517, an SD70ACe.  I was the third engineer to have it on it's maiden run out of Chicago.  The odometer on the computer screen was about 335 when I got on it.  The new, fresh paint smell was almost intoxicating.

When the odometer said about 405, we struck the iceberg.  The traction motor on the lead axle froze up.  A brand new locomotive and it failed.  Who woulda thunk it.

Jeff

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Posted by oltmannd on Monday, October 19, 2020 3:21 PM

rdamon
Electronics have MTBF (Mean Time Before Failure) values calculated allowing for preventative replacements. These values are determined by the reliability of the individual components of the assembly.
 
The software on these devices also have reliability values assigned.
 
Obviously, there are out of box and other types of failures that require replacement before the time, but this is also true for mechanical parts as well.
 

We once calculated the relibility curves for locomotive components - they were all mostly flat.   Scheduled replacement of critical parts was done by monitoring condition, generally, so we never saw the inflection in the curve from when they quit from wear.

Some limits were set by experimenting. Roller bearings on freight cars don't ever need additional lubrication.  The wheel wears out before the grease quits. That wasn't always the case.  Seals and grease were improved and wheelsets tested and bearning torn down until it was known that the design was solid.

-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/

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Posted by oltmannd on Monday, October 19, 2020 3:14 PM

jeffhergert

Regarding track circuits for broken rail protection.

I was reading an article in Railway Age about a new CBTC (communications Based Train Control) system.  The author, a "contributing editor", was saying how this system was completely independent of track circuits.  That not only could it be adopted on railroads without any signalling, exsisting signalling could be removed.  He said broken rail protection wasn't really needed in many places.

He was involved in the developement of this system.  He gave me the impression that anyone who didn't see that their system was the greatest ever developed was a moron.  He didn't care about broken rail protection because their system didn't have it.  Reading many articles like this I come to realize that the "contributing editors" actually are trying to sell their product or service.

Jeff

 

There lots of stuff in the transit world that doesn't "scale up" very well.  Automatic couplers with electrical and air built in are just one thing.  I can't see the FRA letting RRs get by without broken rail protection until the number of broken rails drops to very near zero.  Some smart C&S guys did tell me that you can to really long "broken rail" blocks using higher frequency AC track circuits or some such.

-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/

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Posted by jeffhergert on Monday, October 19, 2020 1:20 PM

Regarding track circuits for broken rail protection.

I was reading an article in Railway Age about a new CBTC (communications Based Train Control) system.  The author, a "contributing editor", was saying how this system was completely independent of track circuits.  That not only could it be adopted on railroads without any signalling, exsisting signalling could be removed.  He said broken rail protection wasn't really needed in many places.

He was involved in the developement of this system.  He gave me the impression that anyone who didn't see that their system was the greatest ever developed was a moron.  He didn't care about broken rail protection because their system didn't have it.  Reading many articles like this I come to realize that the "contributing editors" actually are trying to sell their product or service.

Jeff

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Posted by jeffhergert on Monday, October 19, 2020 12:54 PM

oltmannd

One thing Colin put in was automatic couplers.  I thought about it but decided it was a "bridge too far".  Much more expensive to implement that ECP since the thing would have to be adapted to the coupler - yoke - draftgear arrangement along with the plumbing for the air and you'd have to have a better alignment/gathering mechanism than currently exists.  

You CAN do ECP and have a car be backward compatible, if you cared to.  Not so with couplers, I don't think.

 

The (completely) automatic couplers really aren't going to save much.  What car load traffic remains will probably be in small blocks.  That and intermodal block swapping will only be done at points where you are going to maintain utility employees who will handle the ground work.  Assuming that branches and secondary lines are spun off and class one local/yard work is contracted out, the owners/lease operators will probably use two person crews.

The only time a class one train will work between yards will be to set out a bad-order car and there will be a road utility person to help with that.  They did some experimenting with automatic air connections (with a knuckle coupler) back in the 1970s.  A person still had to manually operate the uncoupling lever to uncouple, but the air connection was automatic.  It never really went anywhere and I would guess because they figured it didn't really save them much.

Jeff  

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Posted by rdamon on Monday, October 19, 2020 12:49 PM
Electronics have MTBF (Mean Time Before Failure) values calculated allowing for preventative replacements. These values are determined by the reliability of the individual components of the assembly.
 
The software on these devices also have reliability values assigned.
 
Obviously, there are out of box and other types of failures that require replacement before the time, but this is also true for mechanical parts as well.
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Posted by oltmannd on Monday, October 19, 2020 12:06 PM

Another thing Colin put in is "relability centered maintenance" where you replace parts before they fail.  I believe you can replace mechanical parts before they wear out and fail, but you can't do much with electronics. A transistor is as likely to fail on the first time it "switches" as the next.  They don't "wear out" like bearings and piston rings.

Generally, you are stuck with replacing most parts when they break and you build in reliablity with redundency.

-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/

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Posted by oltmannd on Monday, October 19, 2020 11:36 AM

One thing Colin put in was automatic couplers.  I thought about it but decided it was a "bridge too far".  Much more expensive to implement that ECP since the thing would have to be adapted to the coupler - yoke - draftgear arrangement along with the plumbing for the air and you'd have to have a better alignment/gathering mechanism than currently exists.  

You CAN do ECP and have a car be backward compatible, if you cared to.  Not so with couplers, I don't think.

-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/

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Posted by oltmannd on Monday, October 19, 2020 11:30 AM

BaltACD

 

 
zugmann
 
oltmannd
Only if "why" becomes "why not" from a managment perspective.  Getting the dispatcher's track line view into the cab display is really easy to do.  Can't hurt.  Might help.  Improves employee moral.  You want employees to act like owners, treat them like owners. 

I'd rather have music. 

 

If you listen to the Engineers, they already know how 'their' train needs to be Dispatched without the need to see the model board with all the other trains on the territory.  Facts would only cofuse things.

 

I've ridden enough trains and heard enough dispatchers and train crews to know that reality covers a whole range of good, bad and ugly.  From "let me help you out" to "shut up and leave me alone".  YMMV.  

-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/

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Posted by oltmannd on Monday, October 19, 2020 11:27 AM

zugmann

 

 
oltmannd
Only if "why" becomes "why not" from a managment perspective.  Getting the dispatcher's track line view into the cab display is really easy to do.  Can't hurt.  Might help.  Improves employee moral.  You want employees to act like owners, treat them like owners.

 

I'd rather have music. 

 

Sorry, no music for you...

-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/

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Posted by oltmannd on Monday, October 19, 2020 11:27 AM

jeffhergert

People usually look at 20 years down the road as a long time away.  Yet when you look back 20 years, it seems like it was only yesterday.  Perception is a funny thing.

In reality, 20 years from now things may not be too different from the way they are now.  Some changes yes.  Wide sweeping changes, probably not so much.

Jeff  

 

Currently, nobody in the industry is picking their head up to look much more than 5 years down the road.  I wish someone would just take a swag at 20 years and make sure the current investments (or lack of) don't turf out a viable future.

-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/

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Posted by BaltACD on Monday, October 19, 2020 11:26 AM

zugmann
 
oltmannd
Only if "why" becomes "why not" from a managment perspective.  Getting the dispatcher's track line view into the cab display is really easy to do.  Can't hurt.  Might help.  Improves employee moral.  You want employees to act like owners, treat them like owners. 

I'd rather have music. 

If you listen to the Engineers, they already know how 'their' train needs to be Dispatched without the need to see the model board with all the other trains on the territory.  Facts would only cofuse things.

Never too old to have a happy childhood!

              

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Posted by oltmannd on Monday, October 19, 2020 11:25 AM

tree68

 

 
ttrraaffiicc
This of course assumes that common carrier railroads still exist in 2040 and haven't been completely undercut by autonomous trucks.

 

And that the roads the autonomous trucks run on continue to be maintained...

And that said roads can handle the additional traffic.

 

That was completely off my radar in 2014 when I wrote my blog.  I'm sort of conflicted about that now.  I can't get Alexa to reliably do what I say without phrasing things just right, or sometimes, at all.  So, she's not driving me anywhere, ever!  I'm thinking automated cars and trucks are a ways off beyond 2040.  Maybe auto convoying trucks, though... 

If self driving trucks come, self driving trains will be here, too.  And, that might just be another sea-change.  Instead of few, long trains, maybe short, frequent, origin to destination will be the rule.

-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/

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Posted by oltmannd on Monday, October 19, 2020 11:20 AM

jeffhergert
Which brings me to something not mentioned in this article.  I haven't read Don's original story in quite awhile and don't remember if he touched on it either.  The major railroads are heavily unionized.  They operate under the Railway Labor Act. 

I sorta did.  But, rather than being RR related, I had the service and retail industry unionizing and pushing AI and automation ahead faster.

-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/

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Posted by oltmannd on Monday, October 19, 2020 10:43 AM

jeffhergert
(Personally, I don't agree with the need to get rid of fixed blocks and the signalling that goes with them.  If PTC fails, and it does and it will at times, you have something to fall back on.  Verbal Absolute Blocking is more unsafe than leaving legacy signalling in place.  Unless when PTC and your other alphabet soup of control systems fail you plan on letting a train sit until rescue by another working engine comes along.)  Also, I think even with a communications based, "rolling block" system there will still be some kind of track circuit blocks.  Not for signalling but for broken rail detection.  

Broken rail protection for sure.  RRs are so wedded to fixed block with PTC built on the back of that - going away by 2040 is unlikely.  If huge, one man crew trains are the rule by 2040, then rolling blocks don't buy you much.  RRs aren't capacity contrained by signal blocks currently and won't be then.

jeffhergert
The employee will only operate over the road when the computer, for whatever reason, cuts out.  And it at times will.  The part where errors, and to me implied failures, will be rare is BS.  They may be minor, that may be temporary-only for a portion of a trip, and a single employee may go for weeks or months without personally having a glitch.  But it will happen.  (That's why earlier I asked about Rio Tinto's failure rate.)  

Agree completely.  In fact, I would require the operator to "run manual" for some portion of most trips, to keep sharp.

jeffhergert
I don't think you'll see all those sensors, and especially, the back up cameras on cars.  They are working on some of these things, but I think the vast majority of the car fleet won't have those items yet.  I'm not sure about ECP.  I think you'll see some of the fleet equipped for dual ECP/Conventional operation.  I think 20 years is to soon for the entire fleet to be converted. 

If you do some sort of advanced ECP, then you do the DPU via trainline rather than radio (should make linking, etc, simpler).  Having a "brain" and comm on each car makes adding sensors pretty cheap and easy.  Hot box, stuck truck, "anti-lock" braking and more.   It the one thing the industry really should be getting going on....but isn't.

-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/

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Posted by zugmann on Monday, October 19, 2020 10:38 AM

oltmannd
Only if "why" becomes "why not" from a managment perspective.  Getting the dispatcher's track line view into the cab display is really easy to do.  Can't hurt.  Might help.  Improves employee moral.  You want employees to act like owners, treat them like owners.

I'd rather have music. 

It's been fun.  But it isn't much fun anymore.   Signing off for now. 


  

The opinions expressed here represent my own and not those of my employer, any other railroad, company, or person.t fun any

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Posted by oltmannd on Monday, October 19, 2020 10:34 AM

jeffhergert
And I don't expect they'll allow a lone employee to listen to music while toolin' down the rails.  

Agree.  Not happenin'

jeffhergert
Once with PTC working, you don't see other trains on the operating map display.  I doubt in the future this will change.  There's no reason for it.  While it's always nice to know why you're getting hosed at a control point, it's not critical information the train crew necessarily needs to know

Only if "why" becomes "why not" from a managment perspective.  Getting the dispatcher's track line view into the cab display is really easy to do.  Can't hurt.  Might help.  Improves employee moral.  You want employees to act like owners, treat them like owners.

jeffhergert
Plus, if you have the PTC screen why do you still have a cab signal? 

Yep.  No cab.

-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/

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Posted by jeffhergert on Tuesday, October 13, 2020 12:44 PM

People usually look at 20 years down the road as a long time away.  Yet when you look back 20 years, it seems like it was only yesterday.  Perception is a funny thing.

In reality, 20 years from now things may not be too different from the way they are now.  Some changes yes.  Wide sweeping changes, probably not so much.

Jeff  

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Posted by BaltACD on Tuesday, October 13, 2020 12:35 PM

jeffhergert
 
ttrraaffiicc

This of course assumes that common carrier railroads still exist in 2040 and haven't been completely undercut by autonomous trucks. 

Maybe there won't be long distance trucking by 2040.  It could happen that the fuel/power situation (price/availablity,etc) is such that long distance moves will be by rail.  Short distance delivery/pick up by truck.

Even with trucks I think fully autonomous operation won't be realized.  I think it will also be "attended automation" for a few reasons.

Jeff

And 2040 is only 20 years away.

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Posted by jeffhergert on Tuesday, October 13, 2020 12:25 PM

ttrraaffiicc

This of course assumes that common carrier railroads still exist in 2040 and haven't been completely undercut by autonomous trucks.

 

Maybe there won't be long distance trucking by 2040.  It could happen that the fuel/power situation (price/availablity,etc) is such that long distance moves will be by rail.  Short distance delivery/pick up by truck.

Even with trucks I think fully autonomous operation won't be realized.  I think it will also be "attended automation" for a few reasons.

Jeff

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Posted by tree68 on Tuesday, October 13, 2020 11:41 AM

ttrraaffiicc
This of course assumes that common carrier railroads still exist in 2040 and haven't been completely undercut by autonomous trucks.

And that the roads the autonomous trucks run on continue to be maintained...

And that said roads can handle the additional traffic.

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Posted by ttrraaffiicc on Tuesday, October 13, 2020 11:38 AM

This of course assumes that common carrier railroads still exist in 2040 and haven't been completely undercut by autonomous trucks.

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Posted by SD60MAC9500 on Sunday, October 11, 2020 11:48 PM
 

I'll add my two cents as well.. The engineer in Colins story won't be picking up any blocks at Commerce Ramp in 2040, because by then it will no longer exist. California's HSR proposed route runs right through the current facility. BNSF and CHSRA have already came to an agreement that the facility will be eliminated once construction beigns in the LOSSAN corridor. BNSF will be getting a new facility in Colton. Eventually..

 
 
 
 
Rahhhhhhhhh!!!!

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