Trumps' threat of imposing a 35 percent tarrif on US companies importing stuff from Mexico is all smoke and mirrors. He CAN NOT do it because it is a tarrif and is in violation of the NAFTA agreement. Either NAFTA would have to be renegotiated or cancelled to allow him to due it.
Randy StahlReally? For the last 14 years I have had the task of hiring railroad employees for all the trades. Not an easy job these days
There might be other factors, such as wages, location, benefits, reputation of the company, union or not.
C&NW, CA&E, MILW, CGW and IC fan
And he has said he wants to void our trade agreements. But a lot of the things he promises are things only the congress can do.
There is nothing wrong with trade schools. I made a career in electronics as a technician. I have a college degree, but it was not needed for my work directly. But my education did impact my thinkming on the job and in business. I am often stunned by how little the youth of America know these days. My wife took a document into a copy store, and asked at the counter to have it reduced by "half". The counter person said in all seriousness, "Oh, we can only do percents." As God is my witness.
You can make a good wage in a vocation. $50-60-70,000 say. And with experience that can edge up. But few vocational graduates find those $200,000 jobs. And it takes more than a trade school to make engineers and other professional jobs. Not everyone would find being a plumber or electrician to be fulfilling, even if it pays well. There are places for creative people too.
Kill the imports, and we kill the container trade. And the US imports a LOT in containers. Even so it can be hard to come up with empty containers for export, and there would be even fewer of them.
There is interesting news about the reversal of Carrier’s move to Mexico. Carrier says they will use some of the funds that they were given as an incentive to stay in this country to pay for automation which will displace human workers. So, some of the jobs that were saved by staying in this country will be lost to automation. What should be done about these jobs being lost?
What about automation in general? If corporations should not move off shore to save money, should they also not automate to save money?
From the link:
“We’re going to… automate to drive the cost down so that we can continue to be competitive,” Hayes said. “Is it as cheap as moving to Mexico with lower cost labor? No. But we will make that plant competitive just because we’ll make the capital investments there. But what that ultimately means is there will be fewer jobs.”
https://thinkprogress.org/carrier-automation-trump-deal-more-layoffs-db2554f46297#.8fjlxgt9i
EuclidThere is interesting news about the reversal of Carrier’s move to Mexico. Carrier says they will use some of the funds that they were given as an incentive to stay in this country to pay for automation which will displace human workers. So, some of the jobs that were saved by staying in this country will be lost to automation. What should be done about these jobs being lost? What about automation in general? If corporations should not move off shore to save money, should they also not automate to save money? From the link: “We’re going to… automate to drive the cost down so that we can continue to be competitive,” Hayes said. “Is it as cheap as moving to Mexico with lower cost labor? No. But we will make that plant competitive just because we’ll make the capital investments there. But what that ultimately means is there will be fewer jobs.” https://thinkprogress.org/carrier-automation-trump-deal-more-layoffs-db2554f46297#.8fjlxgt9i
United Technologies has been very adept at the 'bait & switch' form of business ethics for many years.
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
Enzoamps You can make a good wage in a vocation. $50-60-70,000 say. And with experience that can edge up. But few vocational graduates find those $200,000 jobs. And it takes more than a trade school to make engineers and other professional jobs. Not everyone would find being a plumber or electrician to be fulfilling, even if it pays well. There are places for creative people too.
Exactly. I would like to add that not everyone would find being an engineer or scientist fulfilling as well. It takes all kinds to make the world tick.
BaltACD Euclid There is interesting news about the reversal of Carrier’s move to Mexico. Carrier says they will use some of the funds that they were given as an incentive to stay in this country to pay for automation which will displace human workers. So, some of the jobs that were saved by staying in this country will be lost to automation. What should be done about these jobs being lost? What about automation in general? If corporations should not move off shore to save money, should they also not automate to save money? From the link: “We’re going to… automate to drive the cost down so that we can continue to be competitive,” Hayes said. “Is it as cheap as moving to Mexico with lower cost labor? No. But we will make that plant competitive just because we’ll make the capital investments there. But what that ultimately means is there will be fewer jobs.” https://thinkprogress.org/carrier-automation-trump-deal-more-layoffs-db2554f46297#.8fjlxgt9i United Technologies has been very adept at the 'bait & switch' form of business ethics for many years.
Euclid There is interesting news about the reversal of Carrier’s move to Mexico. Carrier says they will use some of the funds that they were given as an incentive to stay in this country to pay for automation which will displace human workers. So, some of the jobs that were saved by staying in this country will be lost to automation. What should be done about these jobs being lost? What about automation in general? If corporations should not move off shore to save money, should they also not automate to save money? From the link: “We’re going to… automate to drive the cost down so that we can continue to be competitive,” Hayes said. “Is it as cheap as moving to Mexico with lower cost labor? No. But we will make that plant competitive just because we’ll make the capital investments there. But what that ultimately means is there will be fewer jobs.” https://thinkprogress.org/carrier-automation-trump-deal-more-layoffs-db2554f46297#.8fjlxgt9i
How is it bait and switch?
The long term trend is more goods produced per hour of labor input. Labor will become a dwindling part of the cost of production. Look at the percentage of the work force employed in agriculture compared to 100 years ago.
Look for manufacturing to be done closer to markets. That means more finished goods not needing transported long distances. Finished goods moving short distances move by truck.
Can railroads adapt to short hauls and meet tight delivery schedules?
Given our poor educational performance in world rankings for grades 1-12, it is foolish to expect us to become competitive using tariffs, under any name. #41 in math; #25 science; #24 reading.
PISA rankings
120 years ago, the country was 80% agricultural and 20% industrial. Now it's 10/90.
There is no "again" in great.
Free trade is good.
Automation is good.
Inovation is good.
Increased productivity is good.
It's what made us great. Managing through the change is hard, but it's worth it.
-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/)
schlimm Randy Stahl Really? For the last 14 years I have had the task of hiring railroad employees for all the trades. Not an easy job these days There might be other factors, such as wages, location, benefits, reputation of the company, union or not.
Randy Stahl Really? For the last 14 years I have had the task of hiring railroad employees for all the trades. Not an easy job these days
ouibejamn schlimm Randy Stahl Really? For the last 14 years I have had the task of hiring railroad employees for all the trades. Not an easy job these days There might be other factors, such as wages, location, benefits, reputation of the company, union or not. And because he won't hire "flag burners" and "hipsters", speakes to his own biases towards the people he hires. He weeds outs people that aren't just like him. His supervisors should fire him for incompetence. And yes, I have had years (more than you) in hiring personnel.
And because he won't hire "flag burners" and "hipsters", speakes to his own biases towards the people he hires. He weeds outs people that aren't just like him. His supervisors should fire him for incompetence. And yes, I have had years (more than you) in hiring personnel.
In the interest of tranquility, I was subtle/silent on that point.
I don't see where Randy said he wouldn't hire "flag burning/hipsters". I doubt he gets many applications from persons that come close to fitting any part of that description. I'm sure most of them would feel that working for the railroad would be beneath them.
Jeff
jeffhergertI don't see where Randy said he wouldn't hire "flag burning/hipsters". I doubt he gets many applications from persons that come close to fitting any part of that description. I'm sure most of them would feel that working for the railroad would be beneath them.
We have some hipsters that work for us (skinny jeans, vaping and all). Guess what? They are fine railroaders. It's almost like railroaders come from all walks of life or something.
The opinions expressed here represent my own and not those of my employer, any other railroad, company, or person.
zugmann jeffhergert I don't see where Randy said he wouldn't hire "flag burning/hipsters". I doubt he gets many applications from persons that come close to fitting any part of that description. I'm sure most of them would feel that working for the railroad would be beneath them. We have some hipsters that work for us (skinny jeans, vaping and all). Guess what? They are fine railroaders. It's almost like railroaders come from all walks of life or something.
jeffhergert I don't see where Randy said he wouldn't hire "flag burning/hipsters". I doubt he gets many applications from persons that come close to fitting any part of that description. I'm sure most of them would feel that working for the railroad would be beneath them.
People that think 'work' is beneath them, don't last very long and rarely make it out of the probationary period.
A problem is his biased attitude.
"The so called hipsters and millenials somehow feel entitled, how can we compete with other nations if more and more young Americans are somhow above the crafts and tech and science? How would Joe's method work if everyone only wanted degrees in gender studies and social justice? Few want to get thier hands dirty unless its from burning an American flag. "
oltmannd120 years ago, the country was 80% agricultural and 20% industrial. Now it's 10/90.
Actually, I think there's a missing factor in that split. I have no idea what the percentages would be, but I would suggest that there are three factors - agricultural, industrial, and service, with service seeing the biggest jump.
Larry Resident Microferroequinologist (at least at my house) Everyone goes home; Safety begins with you My Opinion. Standard Disclaimers Apply. No Expiration Date Come ride the rails with me! There's one thing about humility - the moment you think you've got it, you've lost it...
The problem we face today is that too many people are out of work in this country. The scale used to calculate the unemployment number is not adequately representative for an economic downturn that lasts as long as this one has. So the unemployment index being used is painting a false picture of the actual number of people who need jobs and can’t find them. The index is vastly understating the problem, which is basically a weak economy that is not growing fast enough to create enough jobs.
Another part of the reason for job scarcity is jobs leaving this country and moving to foreign manufacturing plants. A lot of people believe that this is the only reason jobs are scarce in this country. These people tend to obsess about the effect of NAFTA and they also tend to bash corporations as being too greedy by wanting to move their manufacturing out of this country. They also want the government to add export tariffs in order to put a stop to this exporting of jobs. Taken all together, this is a belief system for a lot of people.
But one thing the adherents of this belief system never consider is that the lack of jobs is due to a slow economy being caused by high taxes, excessive regulations, and uncertainties of the direction of government policies such as national healthcare. All of these things create uncertainties and perceived risk for investment. So the economy slows down and does not grow fast enough to create sufficient jobs.
In my opinion, the loss of jobs from moving production offshore is a very small component of the U.S. job shortage. The far greater cause of the problem is government policy putting a drag on economic growth.
Also, while the education system has its problems, I don’t think the reason jobs are leaving this country is because foreign workers are smarter or better educated than American workers. That may be a problem someday, but I don’t think it even enters into the picture today. In other words, the people who can’t find jobs today are NOT in that plight because their level of skills, training, intelligence, or expertise is too low, or because they feel work is beneath them. They are in that plight because the economy is not growing fast enough.
As of this month, we have a golden opportunity to fix the problem. But were are not going to fix that problem if we focus on import tariffs and public shaming of companies who need to move production offshore in order to stay alive. This approach is liable to slow the economy down further.
I should be fired for having a safe, productive, ethnically diverse workforce that has come together as an affective team?
My best inspector is from El Salvador, obviously I don't hire people just like myself.
Perhaps you also have a bias?
My bias leans towards people that will obey the rules and work, period.
Thanks to Chris / CopCarSS for my avatar.
I may be a bit off the mark but it appears that many of the supporters of the Blond Bombshell want their old jobs back and resent the idea that they may have to retrain or otherwise acquire new skills to get the jobs that are currently available.
I'm the DOT compliance director for 250 drivers plus about 50 Owner Operators for my boss. That means in an average month 30 of my drivers are drug tested. Plus about 3 more in the office or shop. We put all people in the company in the pool. Last week we had a new crop of 10 drivers start 6 failed the Pre-Employment drug test. Anyone want to guess their drug of choice. For my boss and insurance company it does not matter how long ago you smoked it you test positive you are not eligable to be hired. People think that they can use a certain drug and get away with it in Saftey Sensitive Industry like Trucking or Railroading. Sorry but these regulations are written in blood for a freaking reason and the Marijunia one especially from Chase MD. Yes some of the safety warning devices had been tampered with. However he was also baked higher than a batch of weed brownies while running those engines. He knew what he was doing and still did it high.
CSSHEGEWISCH I may be a bit off the mark but it appears that many of the supporters of the Blond Bombshell want their old jobs back and resent the idea that they may have to retrain or otherwise acquire new skills to get the jobs that are currently available.
Which blonde bombshell? We had two to pick from.
The US market will not be as fast growing as other markets. Its not the same market. We are an established economy that has saturated a lot of the big ticket items and so the market is for replacments, not new sales.
Pretty much anybody that wants a car in the US has a car. The US auto market is replacement. People buying a newer model or replacing a broken car. On the other hand in China and India there are millions of people who want a car who have never owned a car. They are a completely new market. The new sales will always be higher than the replacement market.
The big hope is the infrastructure improvements, even that is replacement not new construction. We aren't building a new interstate highway system we are fixing what's there. We aren't building "new" bridges, we will be replacing the old ones already there.
We pretty much have excess production capacity. We can make more than we can use of most basic commodities: steel, cement, food, etc. Since we have excess capacity, the chances of getting industries to build more capacity is slim. That's why I don't think cutting taxes will spur growth. Cutting corporate taxes may keep existing jobs here, but won't create new ones. Cutting corporate taxes will reduce costs, which may reduce prices, but that won't necessarily increase production or consumption if the pipeline is saturated.
What creates jobs is increased consumption. The more that is consumed, the more that has to be produced. It takes more people to increase production (fewer today than it did 50 years ago though). Will policies increase the ability of the end user to consume? Increasing the ability of the ACME Corp to produce widgets only results in ACME making more widgets if you simultaneously increase the ability or need for widget consumers to buy more widgets.
Railroads make money moving things from where they are to where they are needed. A railroad makes more money the farther it moves things. Any policy which inhibits the desire of people or companies to move things or reduces the distances things need to be moved will NOT be good for the railroads.
Midwestern railroads have about 25% of their business involving the NAFTA flows. If NAFTA is eliminated and that business is impeded, I can't see how that would help railroads. Look at traffic levels before NAFTA and after NAFTA. About 20-25% of the western road's business touches the far east. Putting 35% tariff on business from China or the far east will reduce that business. I don't see how that will help US railroads.
Dave H. Painted side goes up. My website : wnbranch.com
Dave,
I agree that the 35% tariff will hurt the railroads in this country directly by reducing traffic of imported products. It will also hurt the consumers by raising the price on those products. Consumers will respond by reducing their demand and consumption of those products, and the reduced demand and consumption will also hurt the railroads. I believe that loss of product demand will hurt the railroads far more than the direct loss of traffic of imported products.
The economic theory used to support tariffs is that they will end low cost imports; and then that will spur the expansion of U.S. industry to compensate for the loss of the imports. So, the expansion of U.S. industry will provide new jobs paying prevailing wages which will return the prosperity previously lost in the outsourcing trend.
This of course amounts to an economic perpetual motion machine because it assumes that consumers will go right on consuming and happily paying the new price increase on their products in order to pay the higher wages for all the jobs brought back to the country. This is like expecting water to run uphill. Of course it won’t work. It will make all consumers poorer, and it will not create new jobs unless the cost of manufacturing is equal to that of the foreign manufacturers where the low cost products were imported from. If that were possible, the whole problem would not have developed in the first place.
In the largest perspective, the whole point of the tariff is to revive the U.S. economy. I think it will have precisely the opposite effect. The tariff proposal assumes that the sluggish U.S. economy is entirely due to the loss of jobs to outsourcing. I do not believe that is the case. In my opinion, the loss of jobs due to outsourcing accounts for less than 5% of the current slow economy.
So not only is the tariff plan bound to fail and make the problem worse, it also misses the point of the problem that it purports to address.
Another matter: how many of the factories that were idled because of low cost imports are ready to be started up again? How much new construction would be necessary before our manufacturers would have product ready for the market?
Johnny
DeggestyAnother matter: how many of the factories that were idled because of low cost imports are ready to be started up again? How much new construction would be necessary before our manufacturers would have product ready for the market?
Just look at the facility across from the camera at Rochelle to have your answer, just a wall is still standing.
Deggesty Another matter: how many of the factories that were idled because of low cost imports are ready to be started up again? How much new construction would be necessary before our manufacturers would have product ready for the market?
I think that's a valid point Johnny. Much of our manufacturing base has disappeared. We'd be in somewhat of a bind if the worst should happen and require post haste manufacturing of critical defense equipment in a rush such as happened in World War II.
Norm
75 years ago, the automobile/light truck manufacturing plants were put to use manufacturing military equipment. Could the plants that we have now be retooled as quickly as those were if it became necessary?--could the robots be quickly reprogrammed for such work?
Deggesty75 years ago, the automobile/light truck manufacturing plants were put to use manufacturing military equipment. Could the plants that we have now be retooled as quickly as those were if it became necessary?--could the robots be quickly reprogrammed for such work?
Where are the steel mills to supply raw materials, not to mention the supply channels required to provide raw materials to the steel mills. Heavy industry barely exists in the US anymore. In the pre WWII US there was excess production capacity available from the effects of the Depression, and that production capacity could be repurposed relatively easily.
Today's production capacity is cost controlled to insure there is no excess capacity, beyond that most capacity that does exist is for light duty type products.
If there were a WWII type War we would be sucking wind. If there is a War, it will be nothing like WWII.
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