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Norfolk Southern service alert regarding the Positive Train Control deadline.

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Posted by oltmannd on Friday, November 6, 2015 1:26 PM

Euclid
 
tree68
 
Euclid
PTC will never reach a conclusion, but will forever be a work in progress. 

 

As noted, just like everything in life.  In fact, it would still be true if PTC was able to be fully implemented by the end of the year. 

 

When I said PTC will never reach a conclusion, but will forever be a work in progress, I did not mean that as a philosophical platitude generalizing about “everything in life.”  I meant it literally, just as all the things in life that actually do get finished. 
Obviously the PTC mandate was for a job that had a beginning and an end.  When I say it will never reach a conclusion, I mean that the entire project objective will keep evolving with new parts added and older parts made obsolete in a forever expanding timeline. That was not the intent.    
When I read this summation in Railway Age that BaltACD posted in another thread, considering how screwed up the progress is in the first seven years, I would say it is going to take a lot longer than three more years to finish it if it actually is finished. 
 

My guess is that you'll see 90% of the Class one mileage in place and operating by the deadline, with frequent outages where train operations falls back to non-PTC mode while bugs, big and small, get worked out.

The big terminal areas, where interchange and run throughs will likely take longer.  Places like Chicago, even now, nobody really knows if the radio traffic will swamp the network or not.  

So, get a big bucket of popcorn, sit back, and enjoy the show!

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Posted by BaltACD on Friday, November 6, 2015 12:48 PM

Euclid
CSSHEGEWISCH

Bucky claimed that the Congressional mandate had no teeth.  If that is the case, that would mean that the actions proposed by the several Class I railroads were just attention-getting devices since the threat of fines by the FRA wasn't real.

Paul,
The mandate had teeth in legal terms.  It still does.  The threat of fines was real and legally established.  When I say it had no teeth, I mean the threat of a shutdown prevented the deadline from being enforced even though it was legally enforceable.  The threat of shutdown overrode the terms of the mandate, leaving Congress no choice but to cancel the current deadline.

Imagine that, a political body responding to political pressures.  How novel.  Isn't that what the American political system is supposed to be all about?

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Posted by Euclid on Friday, November 6, 2015 10:04 AM

CSSHEGEWISCH

Bucky claimed that the Congressional mandate had no teeth.  If that is the case, that would mean that the actions proposed by the several Class I railroads were just attention-getting devices since the threat of fines by the FRA wasn't real.

Paul,
The mandate had teeth in legal terms.  It still does.  The threat of fines was real and legally established.  When I say it had no teeth, I mean the threat of a shutdown prevented the deadline from being enforced even though it was legally enforceable.  The threat of shutdown overrode the terms of the mandate, leaving Congress no choice but to cancel the current deadline. 

 

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Posted by CSSHEGEWISCH on Friday, November 6, 2015 8:21 AM

Bucky claimed that the Congressional mandate had no teeth.  If that is the case, that would mean that the actions proposed by the several Class I railroads were just attention-getting devices since the threat of fines by the FRA wasn't real.

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Posted by blue streak 1 on Thursday, November 5, 2015 5:27 PM

A comparsion of the costs of PTC might be possible.  Take Amtrak's yearly reports on how much the spent on the PRR portion of ACSES and divide it by the miles  New Rochelle - WASH;  PHL - Harrisburg and compare it to the costs by several freight RRs.  New Haven - BOS was completed many years ago.  Of course the New Haven - Springfield and NYP - SDY costs might need some computing.

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Posted by tree68 on Thursday, November 5, 2015 4:07 PM

Paul of Covington
Oh, wait...

Yes

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Posted by Paul of Covington on Thursday, November 5, 2015 3:49 PM

tree68
 
Euclid
Obviously the PTC mandate was for a job that had a beginning and an end.

 

Please define "end."

 

     Larry, think about the automatic air brake.   Once Westinghouse perfected it in the late 1800's that was the "end."

   Oh, wait...

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Posted by BaltACD on Thursday, November 5, 2015 3:11 PM

tree68
Euclid

Please define "end."

Euclid is never ending!

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Posted by tree68 on Thursday, November 5, 2015 1:29 PM

Euclid
Obviously the PTC mandate was for a job that had a beginning and an end.

Please define "end."

 

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Posted by Euclid on Thursday, November 5, 2015 1:21 PM
tree68
 
Euclid
PTC will never reach a conclusion, but will forever be a work in progress. 

 

As noted, just like everything in life.  In fact, it would still be true if PTC was able to be fully implemented by the end of the year. 

When I said PTC will never reach a conclusion, but will forever be a work in progress, I did not mean that as a philosophical platitude generalizing about “everything in life.”  I meant it literally, just as all the things in life that actually do get finished. 
Obviously the PTC mandate was for a job that had a beginning and an end.  When I say it will never reach a conclusion, I mean that the entire project objective will keep evolving with new parts added and older parts made obsolete in a forever expanding timeline. That was not the intent.    
When I read this summation in Railway Age that BaltACD posted in another thread, considering how screwed up the progress is in the first seven years, I would say it is going to take a lot longer than three more years to finish it if it actually is finished. 
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Posted by tree68 on Thursday, November 5, 2015 12:22 PM

Euclid
PTC will never reach a conclusion, but will forever be a work in progress. 

As noted, just like everything in life.  In fact, it would still be true if PTC was able to be fully implemented by the end of the year.

Once PTC reaches full implementation, the technology will continue to develop.  New methods of completing the same tasks will be found, equipment will be improved, and new requirements come to light after the next Chatsworth.

You are fixated on the mandate having no teeth, yet it did have teeth, and still does.  Discretion being the better part of valor, those who could enforce the deadline chose instead to react to the reality of the situation and move the target.  

As has already been pointed out, work was begun - and continues - on the implementation of PTC.  

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Posted by schlimm on Thursday, November 5, 2015 11:26 AM

Euclid
Jeff, You say this: “They have gotten an extension only because they have been making an effort to install PTC.” I would say that is one way to look at it.  The railroads have been making an effort and simply ran out of time.  But the ultimate reason for the extension was that it was required to prevent the railroads from shutting down.  There was no choice in the matter.  Even if the railroads had not made a good effort to install PTC so far, they would have still gotten the extension because it was absolutely required by the threat of a shutdown.  When I say that the mandate had no teeth because its deadline could not be enforced, what I do not know is when this became apparent to the railroads.  They only began talking about it a couple months ago.   Maybe most of the seven years so far, the railroads never considered that the not meeting the deadline would lead to an extension.  So maybe they took the deadline seriously enough to be motivated to spend money on PTC.  Or maybe the railroads would have just gone ahead and installed PTC because the government asked them to do it, and so there was no actual need for a deadline.   But somewhere in the past, Congress must have concluded that the only way we would get PTC was if they mandated it.  But whatever was thought about the mandate so far, going forward, all the players know that there is no deadline that will stand.  So we will soon find out whether the railroads will make progress without a deadline.  The underlying premise of a three year extension is that most of the work is done, and only three more years is needed.  Yet, they appear to have gotten into the phase where new research and development is needed, and nobody can predict how long that will take.  The cost overruns of the unpredictable R&D phase may require a lot more expenditure than what has been done over the last seven years.  So it will be interesting to see how much progress is made going forward compared to what has been done so far.  My guess is that with the uncertainty of progress during the R&D work, the rapidly changing state of the art, the feeding frenzy of developers and suppliers, and the lack of any meaningful deadline; PTC will never reach a conclusion, but will forever be a work in progress. 

Although the statement, "How many angels can dance on the head of a pin?" was never stated by John Duns Dunce Scotus or Aquinas or any other of the Scholasticist theologians, the sentiment seems to apply here.   Bang Head   

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Posted by Paul of Covington on Thursday, November 5, 2015 10:28 AM

Euclid
PTC will never reach a conclusion, but will forever be a work in progress.

   As is everything in life.

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Posted by Euclid on Thursday, November 5, 2015 9:27 AM
jeffhergert

If the mandate had no teeth, and still has no teeth after the extension, than why are the railroads still installing PTC?  If they think that one extension would lead to extensions indefinitely, wouldn't they cut back their PTC efforts? 

They have gotten an extension only because they have been making an effort to install PTC.  An effort they could not meet in the deadline given.  Had they just sat around thinking they could bluff the government into extending the deadline indefinitely, I'm sure they wouldn't have started putting big money into PTC.  And I'm just as sure if the railroads had taken that attitude there would've been no extension granted.

Jeff  

 
Jeff,
You say this: “They have gotten an extension only because they have been making an effort to install PTC.”
I would say that is one way to look at it.  The railroads have been making an effort and simply ran out of time.  But the ultimate reason for the extension was that it was required to prevent the railroads from shutting down.  There was no choice in the matter. 
Even if the railroads had not made a good effort to install PTC so far, they would have still gotten the extension because it was absolutely required by the threat of a shutdown. 
When I say that the mandate had no teeth because its deadline could not be enforced, what I do not know is when this became apparent to the railroads.  They only began talking about it a couple months ago.  
Maybe most of the seven years so far, the railroads never considered that the not meeting the deadline would lead to an extension.  So maybe they took the deadline seriously enough to be motivated to spend money on PTC. 
Or maybe the railroads would have just gone ahead and installed PTC because the government asked them to do it, and so there was no actual need for a deadline.   But somewhere in the past, Congress must have concluded that the only way we would get PTC was if they mandated it. 
But whatever was thought about the mandate so far, going forward, all the players know that there is no deadline that will stand.  So we will soon find out whether the railroads will make progress without a deadline. 
The underlying premise of a three year extension is that most of the work is done, and only three more years is needed.  Yet, they appear to have gotten into the phase where new research and development is needed, and nobody can predict how long that will take.  The cost overruns of the unpredictable R&D phase may require a lot more expenditure than what has been done over the last seven years.  So it will be interesting to see how much progress is made going forward compared to what has been done so far. 
My guess is that with the uncertainty of progress during the R&D work, the rapidly changing state of the art, the feeding frenzy of developers and suppliers, and the lack of any meaningful deadline; PTC will never reach a conclusion, but will forever be a work in progress. 
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Posted by jeffhergert on Thursday, November 5, 2015 8:36 AM

If the mandate had no teeth, and still has no teeth after the extension, than why are the railroads still installing PTC?  If they think that one extension would lead to extensions indefinitely, wouldn't they cut back their PTC efforts? 

They have gotten an extension only because they have been making an effort to install PTC.  An effort they could not meet in the deadline given.  Had they just sat around thinking they could bluff the government into extending the deadline indefinitely, I'm sure they wouldn't have started putting big money into PTC.  And I'm just as sure if the railroads had taken that attitude there would've been no extension granted.

Jeff  

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Posted by Norm48327 on Thursday, November 5, 2015 7:59 AM

Euclid
Perhaps I can make it clearer.

In less than 25,000 words? Doubtful.

Norm


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Posted by Euclid on Thursday, November 5, 2015 7:38 AM
What are you calling doublespeak?  Perhaps I can make it clearer. 
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Posted by schlimm on Thursday, November 5, 2015 7:37 AM

Hard to make out what the point of Euclid's post was.  It seems to me the original mandate, when passed as a law, was at best a guess for a deadline.  It would have been better to give the FRA the authority to modify it without an Act of Congress.  It did serve the useful purpose of getting the process of PTC implementation underway.  Would that have happened without the law?  Impossible to know.

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Posted by tree68 on Thursday, November 5, 2015 7:02 AM

An amazing amount of doublespeak there.

In summary, what's your point, in twenty-five words or less?

And why are you so adamant to make it?

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Posted by Euclid on Thursday, November 5, 2015 6:58 AM
tree68
 
Euclid
The only catastrophe is the revelation that the mandate had no teeth. 

 

Poppycock.  The mandate had teeth or there wouldn't have been a need to extend the deadline.

As has been pointed out here numerous times by numerous people, it was found that the timeline was not realistic.  

The mandate had no teeth since its inception, and it has none going forward.  Extending the deadline was the only choice once it was learned that the railroads would shut down.  Extending the deadline was not an indication that the mandate had teeth, as you say.  Extending the deadline was an indication that the mandate did NOT have teeth. 
If the mandate had teeth, failing to meet the deadline would have placed railroads in non-compliance—just as was intended.  Railroads in non-compliance was not originally deemed to mean that their deadline must be extended.  If that were the case, what would be the point of a deadline?
Railroads in non-compliance was originally intended to mean that they could be fined from that point forward.  Extending the deadline was only needed for Congress to save face after mandating something in 2008 that they could not possibly enforce. 
Congress is perfectly free to change their mind and extend the deadline for three years.  And just like now, if the three year deadline arrives unmet, it will have to be extended again.  Like now, there will be no choice but to extend the deadline again if unmet in 2018.  It is a deadline in name only because it cannot possible stand now or in the future. 
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Posted by tree68 on Wednesday, November 4, 2015 9:28 PM

Euclid
The only catastrophe is the revelation that the mandate had no teeth. 

Poppycock.  The mandate had teeth or there wouldn't have been a need to extend the deadline.

As has been pointed out here numerous times by numerous people, it was found that the timeline was not realistic.  Given the amount of lobbying that took place in trying to get the deadline extended, I would opine that the new deadline represents a more realistic goal, and one the industry can attain, or at least come close.

If you have your car in the shop, and the mechanic promises it'll be ready by COB tomorrow, but then updates you that the part he needs won't be in until the next day, does that make him a dishonest person?  Or is he just dealing with reality, as you would also need to do? 

 

 

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Posted by oltmannd on Wednesday, November 4, 2015 8:54 PM

Euclid

 

 
schlimm

NKP, I and others were saying folks on here were the ones catastrophizing, not necessarily the railroads.

 

 

 

The railroads were certainly leading the way in the catastrophizing.  Catastrophy was their point.  And it worked.  Someone needs to explain how Congress was blindsided by the amazing turnabout with a mandate that was meaningless. 

How will the ECP brake mandate for oil trains be any different?  It won't.

 

Moot point.  There won't be any more oil trains by then...

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Posted by Deggesty on Wednesday, November 4, 2015 10:34 AM

zugmann

 

 
Euclid
Well if you would like an under-reaction, I conclude that the railroads would not have actually shut down as they threatened.

 

 

Yes they would have.  We even got operating bulletins (since cancelled) to that effect.

 

Thanks, Zug, for the breath of reality.

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Posted by zugmann on Wednesday, November 4, 2015 10:24 AM

Euclid
Well if you would like an under-reaction, I conclude that the railroads would not have actually shut down as they threatened.

 

Yes they would have.  We even got operating bulletins (since cancelled) to that effect.

It's been fun.  But it isn't much fun anymore.   Signing off for now. 


  

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Posted by Euclid on Wednesday, November 4, 2015 9:37 AM

Well if you would like an under-reaction, I conclude that the railroads would not have actually shut down as they threatened. 

The only catastrophy is the revelation that the mandate had no teeth. 

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Posted by zugmann on Wednesday, November 4, 2015 9:23 AM

schlimm
The railroads were using catastrophic threats to get an extension for a deadline they had agreed to.

 

Railroads learn well from their employees. You want a rule (or law) changed? Follow it without fail.

It's been fun.  But it isn't much fun anymore.   Signing off for now. 


  

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Posted by schlimm on Wednesday, November 4, 2015 9:17 AM

Euclid

 

 
schlimm

NKP, I and others were saying folks on here were the ones catastrophizing, not necessarily the railroads.

 

 

 

The railroads were certainly leading the way in the catastrophizing.  Catastrophy was their point.  And it worked.  Someone needs to explain how Congress was blindsided by the amazing turnabout with a mandate that was meaningless. 

How will the ECP brake mandate for oil trains be any different?  It won't.

 

I would say posters on here, none of whom have any influence on the issue, were overreacting. The railroads were using catastrophic threats to get an extension for a deadline they had agreed to.

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Posted by Euclid on Wednesday, November 4, 2015 6:21 AM

schlimm

NKP, I and others were saying folks on here were the ones catastrophizing, not necessarily the railroads.

 

The railroads were certainly leading the way in the catastrophizing.  Catastrophy was their point.  And it worked.  Someone needs to explain how Congress was blindsided by the amazing turnabout with a mandate that was meaningless. 

How will the ECP brake mandate for oil trains be any different?  It won't.

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Posted by schlimm on Tuesday, November 3, 2015 5:12 PM

NKP, I and others were saying folks on here were the ones catastrophizing, not necessarily the railroads.

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