When we put together list of the top 10 railroad stories of 2016, we put Donald Trump’s election as the next president as No. 10 and Wick Moorman’s appointment to Amtrak’s president as No. 1. Our choices were more of a predictive designation, not unlike President Obama’s Nobel Peace in 2009: It’s about what we expect they’ll do. I’ve been thinking about that, and I’m going to predict that 11 months from now, when we compile a new top 10 list, that Trump’s presidency will be the top railroad story of 2017.
The reasons: A president and a Congress of the same party have enormous political power to change things, swiftly, if they so desire; Trump has been consistently inconsistent in his statements, but the one issue where he is constant is reducing the hand of government; our moderately troubled railroad industry is hungry for relief from regulation and oversight and for profits to resemble their former selves before coal took a dive. Trump has also talked about rebuilding infrastructure, and while the main aim has been roads, bridges, and airports, I cannot imagine that railroading wouldn’t be a part of that, although some supporters disagree on this strategy. The political stars are aligned to make things happen, and when it comes to railroad issues, I think we should watch what is ahead for Amtrak, positive train control, and two-person crews. Let’s look at each.
Amtrak: Conventional wisdom has been that Amtrak has been politically untouchable because it serves too many communities nationwide and has too deep of a constituency base. Too many people will call their Congressional representative if their Amtrak train is on the chopping block. One of Amtrak’s biggest critics, Rep. John Mica of Florida, lost his bid for re-election last November. But Amtrak is still a favorite target of conservatives, especially the long-distance trains. Trump knows the Northeast Corridor, but does he know about trains in Ottumwa, Iowa, or Anniston, Ala.? As odd as it may sound, the next administration could be good for passenger trains. But in the end, I think Amtrak will continue to be a chip to be traded in the deal-making that is Washington, and after all, the person in charge wrote the book on this subject.
PTC: Railroads have spent an enormous amount of money on positive train control. They won’t and can’t say it, but they still resent being handed an unfunded mandate for a safety system that they say will make less of an impact than if they plowed more money into track and other areas. Union Pacific, for example, says that as of Sept. 1, it’s spent $2.1 billion out of $2.9 billion for PTC. Would the railroads give up PTC now if the government let them? I think so, or at least they would make its implementation a much longer process than the current 2018 deadline and 2020 implementation schedule. But they also might be inclined to finish the job if it means the feds would waver on another issue, which brings us to ….
Two-person crews: Under the Obama administration, the Federal Railroad Administration said it wants to see two people in the cab, but a new administration, at the urging of the industry, could reverse that decision. With PTC, can railroading be done with one person in the cab, or even none on some long-distance unit trains? Is the threat of robot trucks enough to send railroad lobbyists beating down doors on Capitol Hill? I wouldn’t be surprised if this issue becomes the one with the biggest and longest-reaching potential impact.
With just over two weeks to go before the inauguration, that’s my best reading of the future. Now, let’s rendezvous in late December 2017 and see if my crystal ball was clear or cloudy when I wrote this at the start of the new year.
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