Positive train control extension? Probably not.

"Probably not."

That's the least speculative answer I can honestly give when I ask myself if I think Congress and the President will approve the latest proposal to delay positive train control implementation in U.S. railroading.

But first, the facts.

Missouri's Republican U.S. Sen. Roy Blunt recently introduced a bill that would postpone the requirement for U.S. railroads to install functioning PTC systems until Dec. 31, 2020. The current deadline is Dec. 31 this year. Claire McCaskill, Missouri's Democratic Senator; John Thune, a South Dakota Republican and chair of the Senate Commerce Committee; and Florida's Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson joined Blunt in sponsoring the bill, which is known as S.650, the Railroad Safety and Positive Train Control Extension Act.

The bill includes wording that extends the PTC deadline until 2022 on a case-by-case basis. The extension bill would also set the date for when regulators look at which lines require PTC to the end of this year. Current law requires PTC on lines that carry passengers or that haul toxic-by-inhalation cargo (such as chlorine) over tracks considered main lines (5 million gross tons a year or more) without a reference to whether those lines still haul passengers or hazardous cargo.

Now for a little analysis.

The Association of American Railroad's President Ed Hamberger seems pleased with the bill, according to a news release quoting him. But it's Congress' pleasure that matters. Despite being a consistent critic of the 2015 PTC deadline, AAR has not gotten its way on Capitol Hill.

There is promise that four Senators, two each from both political parties, are on board so early in the process. Then again, a similar extension bill that Thune proposed in 2013 had support from both parties (11 Republican, 4 Democratic co-sponsors) but died in the Commerce Committee. Thune now chairs that committee and S.650 may be more likely to pass.

Even more telling, to me, the people who would ordinarily jump at the chance to thumb their nose at the Feds and relieve railroads from Big Government regulation -- the Republican-led U.S. House of Representatives -- have been quiet on PTC. When presented with a bill, will they vote with their libertarian souls or not?

There's also comments from Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx to the House Transportation Committee in mid-February, and reported by The Journal News's LoHud website, that the Administration will hold railroads' "feet to the fire" on PTC. It is Trains' understanding from reporting I did last year that the Transportation department would like authority to give case-by-case extensions after 2015, but it does not have authority to do so (yet) and it does not want a blanket extension like the one proposed in the Senate. I believe that it is unlikely for Foxx to say anything that would contradict his boss, the President. So without other evidence, I say the President would veto the extension bill even if Congress passes it.

"But!" you might say. "But, people will realize pretty soon that railroads are doing their best and PTC was a boondoggle law to begin with and Washington just has to grant an extension."

Please don't underestimate the power of collective fear to influence public opinion and elected officials. In the past 30 days alone several trains have burned and nearly a dozen people died because of their interaction with railroads. The Journal News story that quoted Foxx at the House committee hearing also reported that certain members of Congress think grade crossing deaths would have been prevented if extra sensors were installed at crossings.

Nevermind that the systems U.S. railroads are trying to create and make work don't offer grade crossing protection, because it is not required by law and that it is not what PTC is designed to do. The two concepts are related, but separate. (More details on "intelligent" grade crossings are here.) Journalists who report on crude-by-rail accidents also cite PTC systems as new life-saving technology which, by implication, would prevent crude-by-rail accidents. These reporters make the technology seem so black and white. It is not.

It's this misinformation amid exploding trains and horrific grade crossing accidents, on top of all the political stuff in Washington, that makes me think Blunt's PTC extension bill will wither in Congress -- probably.

What do you think?