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Polls don't really work on forums, Bergie.

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Polls don't really work on forums, Bergie.
Posted by Anonymous on Saturday, August 30, 2003 7:31 AM
Not to be more annoying than usual, but polls are usually intended to have some kind of statistical significance. Polls on this forum, [ or other MRR internet forums ], by nature, have no such characteristics.

Take the recent 'NMRA membership' poll, the 'club membership' poll, the 'what's the most popular scale' poll....none of them has the slightest resemblance to proven statistical participation. [xx(]

What they are is a chance for those in a niche part of the hobby to pretend they are a larger and more significant part of the hobby than is true, and to "preach to the converted".
( How many people who don't belong to the NMRA will join because someone in a forum poll says that they should ? )
( How many MRR club members will quit because someone in a forum poll says how bad clubs are ? )

Totally inaccurate statistics might not matter much to those who have been in the hobby for a while, but might be misleading to a beginner.[B)]

Why are online poll results always so grossly inaccurate ?
Because:
a] most hobby participants don't join online forums,
b] of those who do join, most do not post, they just read others' posts,
c] of those who do post, most post very infrequently,
d] of those who do post frequently, most have pretty strong opinions,
e] the strongest opinions invariably reflect a minority position...not just in our hobby, in all aspects of life.[:I]

So what you really get is not a "poll", but a polarized spleen-venting exercise amongst a highly opinionated tiny minority of special-interest hobbyists.[:o)]
regards
Mike
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Polls don't really work on forums, Bergie.
Posted by Anonymous on Saturday, August 30, 2003 7:31 AM
Not to be more annoying than usual, but polls are usually intended to have some kind of statistical significance. Polls on this forum, [ or other MRR internet forums ], by nature, have no such characteristics.

Take the recent 'NMRA membership' poll, the 'club membership' poll, the 'what's the most popular scale' poll....none of them has the slightest resemblance to proven statistical participation. [xx(]

What they are is a chance for those in a niche part of the hobby to pretend they are a larger and more significant part of the hobby than is true, and to "preach to the converted".
( How many people who don't belong to the NMRA will join because someone in a forum poll says that they should ? )
( How many MRR club members will quit because someone in a forum poll says how bad clubs are ? )

Totally inaccurate statistics might not matter much to those who have been in the hobby for a while, but might be misleading to a beginner.[B)]

Why are online poll results always so grossly inaccurate ?
Because:
a] most hobby participants don't join online forums,
b] of those who do join, most do not post, they just read others' posts,
c] of those who do post, most post very infrequently,
d] of those who do post frequently, most have pretty strong opinions,
e] the strongest opinions invariably reflect a minority position...not just in our hobby, in all aspects of life.[:I]

So what you really get is not a "poll", but a polarized spleen-venting exercise amongst a highly opinionated tiny minority of special-interest hobbyists.[:o)]
regards
Mike
Opinionated Old Curmudgeon
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Posted by Anonymous on Saturday, August 30, 2003 8:01 AM
well, then we should have a poll on whether or not we should have any more polls[:o)]
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Posted by Anonymous on Saturday, August 30, 2003 8:01 AM
well, then we should have a poll on whether or not we should have any more polls[:o)]
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Posted by CNJ831 on Saturday, August 30, 2003 8:13 AM
Most unfortunately, Bergie, Mike is absolutely correct on this particular matter and each of his listed points. I've been watching the various poll figures presented here of late and have to say that in almost every case the results are absolutely ludicrous. The best recent examples of this being that (absolutely no offense meant) Z scale, truly a niche scale, garners a major fraction of hobbyists, and that nearly half of all hobbyists are members of the NMRA, compared to an honest figure close to 7%-9%.

I have to agree with Mike that such figures can drastically mislead newcomers as to what goes on in our hobby and can not serve any useful purpose. Commentary on most any subject is often useful, productive and fun. Creating a misleading and totally unscientific poll regarding the same point, and its potential influence, is not.

CNJ831
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Posted by CNJ831 on Saturday, August 30, 2003 8:13 AM
Most unfortunately, Bergie, Mike is absolutely correct on this particular matter and each of his listed points. I've been watching the various poll figures presented here of late and have to say that in almost every case the results are absolutely ludicrous. The best recent examples of this being that (absolutely no offense meant) Z scale, truly a niche scale, garners a major fraction of hobbyists, and that nearly half of all hobbyists are members of the NMRA, compared to an honest figure close to 7%-9%.

I have to agree with Mike that such figures can drastically mislead newcomers as to what goes on in our hobby and can not serve any useful purpose. Commentary on most any subject is often useful, productive and fun. Creating a misleading and totally unscientific poll regarding the same point, and its potential influence, is not.

CNJ831
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Posted by Wdlgln005 on Saturday, August 30, 2003 10:34 AM
So vote early & often!
Let's keep this forum busy
Y'all come back now Y'hear!
Model Railroading is Fun!
Glenn Woodle
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Posted by Wdlgln005 on Saturday, August 30, 2003 10:34 AM
So vote early & often!
Let's keep this forum busy
Y'all come back now Y'hear!
Model Railroading is Fun!
Glenn Woodle
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    November 2001
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Posted by Javern on Saturday, August 30, 2003 10:44 AM
I find them interesting. However i don't make personal decisions based on polls taken in here, for instance I'm not gonna model in Z just becuase it won out in a poll. Just like I don't vote for a person that is ahead in national voting polls.
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Posted by Javern on Saturday, August 30, 2003 10:44 AM
I find them interesting. However i don't make personal decisions based on polls taken in here, for instance I'm not gonna model in Z just becuase it won out in a poll. Just like I don't vote for a person that is ahead in national voting polls.
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Posted by Anonymous on Saturday, August 30, 2003 11:55 AM
QUOTE: Originally posted by Javern

I find them interesting. However i don't make personal decisions based on polls taken in here, for instance I'm not gonna model in Z just becuase it won out in a poll. Just like I don't vote for a person that is ahead in national voting polls.


I'd have to agree. I like voting in them and seeing the results, but don't take them too seriously. On any forum, workplace, volunteer organization (insert any scenario), you will always have the ones that are active, the inactive and the afraid to be active. Nothing in these polls will change my mind - it might make me raise an eyebrow now and then. Aw, what the heck, keep the polls - it's good fodder for conversation over a cold brew!

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Posted by Anonymous on Saturday, August 30, 2003 11:55 AM
QUOTE: Originally posted by Javern

I find them interesting. However i don't make personal decisions based on polls taken in here, for instance I'm not gonna model in Z just becuase it won out in a poll. Just like I don't vote for a person that is ahead in national voting polls.


I'd have to agree. I like voting in them and seeing the results, but don't take them too seriously. On any forum, workplace, volunteer organization (insert any scenario), you will always have the ones that are active, the inactive and the afraid to be active. Nothing in these polls will change my mind - it might make me raise an eyebrow now and then. Aw, what the heck, keep the polls - it's good fodder for conversation over a cold brew!

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Posted by Anonymous on Saturday, August 30, 2003 11:58 AM
GO TO THE BATTERY OPERATED TOY TRAIN POLL!
IT IS YOUR DESTINY!

-I'll be back.
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Posted by Anonymous on Saturday, August 30, 2003 11:58 AM
GO TO THE BATTERY OPERATED TOY TRAIN POLL!
IT IS YOUR DESTINY!

-I'll be back.
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Posted by Anonymous on Saturday, August 30, 2003 6:47 PM
A "danger" is that the results are being quoted in other news groups as a Model Railroader poll. And being used to "prove" unsound things because "A Model Railroader Poll" said so. Since this site is the arm of the publisher and since the polls are posted by the agent of the publisher, there isn't any clean denial.

C Tucker
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Posted by Anonymous on Saturday, August 30, 2003 6:47 PM
A "danger" is that the results are being quoted in other news groups as a Model Railroader poll. And being used to "prove" unsound things because "A Model Railroader Poll" said so. Since this site is the arm of the publisher and since the polls are posted by the agent of the publisher, there isn't any clean denial.

C Tucker
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Posted by Anonymous on Saturday, August 30, 2003 6:57 PM
The Z poll aspect was rigged somehow, I'm not sure how, but rigged it was. I enjoy polls in forums even if they are completely accurate as to the general population responses. Anything on an electronic medium such as the internet is going to skew responses to a younger audience since youth are more into the internet than some of the older guys and gals. I know some of the NMRA types tried to switch to electronic webs for their members but there was a tremendous resistance to it, since so many didn't have computers yet! or weren't using the internet - even though they were signed up on one!

But you just need to look to the Atlas forum to see that responses are not reflective of the population. N scale responses out number HO responses; when you consider the ratio of N scaler's to HO'rs this is surprising, but not really. There are more younger people in N scale than in HO, and the younger people are more active on the internet so N scale is strong in the electronic media.

Often I do dual posts in the Atlas N and HO forum. It is more common for the N scale thread to garner more posts than the HO thread. This has been true for the past couple of years.

But the polls can give me a sense of what people are doing from questions like - how many have staging on their layout - to how many free lance vs prototypical, etc. So I like the polls as long as they aren't dominating the forums.
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Posted by Anonymous on Saturday, August 30, 2003 6:57 PM
The Z poll aspect was rigged somehow, I'm not sure how, but rigged it was. I enjoy polls in forums even if they are completely accurate as to the general population responses. Anything on an electronic medium such as the internet is going to skew responses to a younger audience since youth are more into the internet than some of the older guys and gals. I know some of the NMRA types tried to switch to electronic webs for their members but there was a tremendous resistance to it, since so many didn't have computers yet! or weren't using the internet - even though they were signed up on one!

But you just need to look to the Atlas forum to see that responses are not reflective of the population. N scale responses out number HO responses; when you consider the ratio of N scaler's to HO'rs this is surprising, but not really. There are more younger people in N scale than in HO, and the younger people are more active on the internet so N scale is strong in the electronic media.

Often I do dual posts in the Atlas N and HO forum. It is more common for the N scale thread to garner more posts than the HO thread. This has been true for the past couple of years.

But the polls can give me a sense of what people are doing from questions like - how many have staging on their layout - to how many free lance vs prototypical, etc. So I like the polls as long as they aren't dominating the forums.
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Posted by Anonymous on Saturday, August 30, 2003 8:40 PM
QUOTE: Originally posted by rsn48

Anything on an electronic medium such as the internet is going to skew responses to a younger audience since youth are more into the internet than some of the older guys and gals.

Please explain the "been modeling long" poll!

C Tucker
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Posted by Anonymous on Saturday, August 30, 2003 8:40 PM
QUOTE: Originally posted by rsn48

Anything on an electronic medium such as the internet is going to skew responses to a younger audience since youth are more into the internet than some of the older guys and gals.

Please explain the "been modeling long" poll!

C Tucker
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Posted by Anonymous on Saturday, August 30, 2003 10:14 PM
I'm not sure what your question is, but I suspect you are talking about those modelling over thirty years. When I talk about something being skewed, it doesn't mean that one part of the population isn't there, it means the average (mean) has more of one type of group rather than another.

Let me ask you this for your survival question on the Island - who is more likely to own a computer, using the internet:

a) the 20 to 30 year olds
b) the 60 to 70 year olds

The correct answer is "a" but that doesn't mean no 60 to 70 year olds don't own computers and use the internet - many of them do, but as a grouping one is more dominant than the other.

What the "how long have you been... " poll does do is raise the question of how many new people are coming into the hobby.
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Posted by Anonymous on Saturday, August 30, 2003 10:14 PM
I'm not sure what your question is, but I suspect you are talking about those modelling over thirty years. When I talk about something being skewed, it doesn't mean that one part of the population isn't there, it means the average (mean) has more of one type of group rather than another.

Let me ask you this for your survival question on the Island - who is more likely to own a computer, using the internet:

a) the 20 to 30 year olds
b) the 60 to 70 year olds

The correct answer is "a" but that doesn't mean no 60 to 70 year olds don't own computers and use the internet - many of them do, but as a grouping one is more dominant than the other.

What the "how long have you been... " poll does do is raise the question of how many new people are coming into the hobby.
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Posted by Anonymous on Sunday, August 31, 2003 5:39 AM
Fair enough folks. I see there are several here who realize that it's not constructive to intentionally try to mislead beginners in the hobby.
That would be those very beginners who are likely to be online more than us geriatrics.

As to harmless, one might refer to any internet forum on "best locomotives".
I have seen more Athearn-bashing than enough the last couple of years, particularly on another well-known forum. The bashing has often been cruel and vindictive. [:(]
However, both reputation , common sense, ( and statistically proven popular opinion ) shows that Athearn still happens to be a GREAT entry-level, or better, locomotive line for beginners. Why try to turn beginners off for all the wrong reasons ?[:(!]

For those who like the polls, fine, enjoy the fiction....but I invoke what I commonly refer to as the "Alan Ladd" principle. A person standing on a box to look you in the eye, may be many, many things........and all of them may be admirable things.........but no matter what that person may be, "tall" is not one of them.[:o)]
regards
Mike
Old enough to remember Alan Ladd[:D]
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Posted by Anonymous on Sunday, August 31, 2003 5:39 AM
Fair enough folks. I see there are several here who realize that it's not constructive to intentionally try to mislead beginners in the hobby.
That would be those very beginners who are likely to be online more than us geriatrics.

As to harmless, one might refer to any internet forum on "best locomotives".
I have seen more Athearn-bashing than enough the last couple of years, particularly on another well-known forum. The bashing has often been cruel and vindictive. [:(]
However, both reputation , common sense, ( and statistically proven popular opinion ) shows that Athearn still happens to be a GREAT entry-level, or better, locomotive line for beginners. Why try to turn beginners off for all the wrong reasons ?[:(!]

For those who like the polls, fine, enjoy the fiction....but I invoke what I commonly refer to as the "Alan Ladd" principle. A person standing on a box to look you in the eye, may be many, many things........and all of them may be admirable things.........but no matter what that person may be, "tall" is not one of them.[:o)]
regards
Mike
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Posted by Anonymous on Sunday, August 31, 2003 5:56 AM
PS to the above : Rick....I didn't mean Athearn's one and only N scale unit...I was referring to H0.
Mike
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Posted by Anonymous on Sunday, August 31, 2003 5:56 AM
PS to the above : Rick....I didn't mean Athearn's one and only N scale unit...I was referring to H0.
Mike
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Posted by IRONROOSTER on Sunday, August 31, 2003 7:14 AM
Maybe the poll should have a disclaimer to avoid misleading people. I like the polls, especially when they generate interesting responses, but I have to admit that I got a real laugh out ot the best scale poll with Z getting most of the votes. As with all statistics you have to be careful when you don't know how they were generated. A good book on the subject is "How to Lie with Statistic" if you can find it. Part of what makes this hobby so fascinating is that there a lot of choices to be made and ways of doing things. Reading the passionately pro and anti opinions on a subject can help you make your own decisions, but in the end it is your decision. And if it doesn't work for you, do it another way. I have changed scales twice, layout concepts numerous times, building methods too often to count, etc. and I still enjoying seeing ideas and discussions from others.
Enjoy
Paul
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Posted by IRONROOSTER on Sunday, August 31, 2003 7:14 AM
Maybe the poll should have a disclaimer to avoid misleading people. I like the polls, especially when they generate interesting responses, but I have to admit that I got a real laugh out ot the best scale poll with Z getting most of the votes. As with all statistics you have to be careful when you don't know how they were generated. A good book on the subject is "How to Lie with Statistic" if you can find it. Part of what makes this hobby so fascinating is that there a lot of choices to be made and ways of doing things. Reading the passionately pro and anti opinions on a subject can help you make your own decisions, but in the end it is your decision. And if it doesn't work for you, do it another way. I have changed scales twice, layout concepts numerous times, building methods too often to count, etc. and I still enjoying seeing ideas and discussions from others.
Enjoy
Paul
If you're having fun, you're doing it the right way.
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Posted by vsmith on Sunday, August 31, 2003 11:16 AM
OH COME ON GUYS!!!

Do any of you take these polls seriously?

These polls are designed to offer an OPINION and FOSTER a conversation about the topic. they have NO basis for fact as not everyone who reads the question will respond plus these forums are a very limited slice of the hobbiest out there so of course the results are bogus.

What they really do well is to get people to talk about things, like them or not these polls often gather the most replys of any forum topics. I will reply and then give my opinion since my views are often not a part of the poll selections.

So guys, Lighten Up! and remember just because someone puts out a poll doesnt mean you have to reply to it...skip it and go to other topics if they bug you that much.

I dont want anyone trying to poop on Freedon af Speech (or opinion) here.

   Have fun with your trains

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Posted by vsmith on Sunday, August 31, 2003 11:16 AM
OH COME ON GUYS!!!

Do any of you take these polls seriously?

These polls are designed to offer an OPINION and FOSTER a conversation about the topic. they have NO basis for fact as not everyone who reads the question will respond plus these forums are a very limited slice of the hobbiest out there so of course the results are bogus.

What they really do well is to get people to talk about things, like them or not these polls often gather the most replys of any forum topics. I will reply and then give my opinion since my views are often not a part of the poll selections.

So guys, Lighten Up! and remember just because someone puts out a poll doesnt mean you have to reply to it...skip it and go to other topics if they bug you that much.

I dont want anyone trying to poop on Freedon af Speech (or opinion) here.

   Have fun with your trains

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