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Rumors of the hobby's demise...

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Posted by ATLANTIC CENTRAL on Saturday, December 31, 2022 10:36 AM

John-NYBW

 

 
ATLANTIC CENTRAL

I don't have the time or energy to really get into this discussion, and I likely agree with some of your points (I managed a hobby shop train department in the late 70's/early 80's), but the real price of the Bachmann car is $30 - there will be widely available at that price. And adjust to the real rate of inflation (not the BS the government feeds us) that is $3 in 1968 money.

Sheldon 

 

 

 

I got my first real job at McDonald's in 1968 and I use the prices of the various items as a benchmark for inflation. Hamburgers were 20 cents. Cheeseburgers 25 cents. The fair new Big Mac was 49 cents. Filet-o-fish was 30 cents. French fries 18 cents. A small Coke back then was 12 oz. and cost 10 cents. The large (16 oz.) Coke was 15 cents.

I checked the current McDonald's menu online to compare to the 1968 prices. The Big Mac is almost exactly to times hire now ($4.89) and that seems to be about the average. A small Coke is $1, also ten times. The hamburger costs 8 times as much and the cheeseburger 7 times as much. The one that is really more expensive is the Filet-o-fish at 15 times the 1968 price although during their Lent special, you'll probably be able to get two for $6 which is in line with the 1968 price. 

I got my first car in 1969 and as I recall, gasoline fluctuated between high 20s to low 30s cents per gallon which in my area is about a tenth of what it is at now. 

My very unscientific approach tells me the 2023 dollar is worth about 1/10 of what it was in the late 1960s. How does that relate to the hobby. Since there was no DCC back then the only comparison is to DC locos. Browsing the Walthers website for DC diesels shows most to be in the $150-200 MSRP range with quite a few specials at $120. My recollection is prices for the same in the late 1960s would be about 1/10 those prices. 

The short answer is the hobby is not getting more expensive when one adjusts for inflation. We do have higher end DCC/Sound locomotives available now and they are more expensive as one would expect but nobody is required to opt for the higher end. The loco you would have paid $15 for in 1968 will now cost you $150. Go figure. 

 

Yes, John you are correct, 1968 to now, roughly 10 times total inflation.

And yes the hobby is no more expensive than it ever was, but it has changed, some for the better, some not.

We did enjoy a sweet spot in the late 90's and early 2000's where the hobby was highly "value added" with great product advancements, good availability (unlike now) and prices below the rate of inflation.

And it is that price correction now that leaves many, especially those newer to the hobby, or who have been away for a while, thinking it is more expensive.

Sheldon

    

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Posted by fwright on Saturday, December 31, 2022 10:36 AM

DonRicardo
It can be an expensive hobby, but there are myriad ways to lower that expense. Perhaps the best way to keep this hobby going is to explain that to the newer generations.

Most Boomer hobbies and past times are declining.  Why?  There isn't the same "want to" in the younger generations.  Expenses are really an excuse.  There are a million and one ways to do model railroading (and other hobbies) on the cheap - if you really want to have a layout and enjoy the hobby.

Why do you need more than 2 locomotives for a 4x8 or a shelf switcher (the most common layouts)?  Used snap track works until you decide you can splurge on hand laying or flex track and better turnouts.  There are plenty of good track plans with less than 10 turnouts total.  Lance Mindheim's web site offers 2 switching layouts on a plank to help newcomers get started quickly at creating with their hands.

So I don't buy the "too expensive" excuse - it's used to justify the lack of "want to".  The lack of want to leads to the path of if I can't buy my dream layout ready to run, I'm just not going to do the hobby.  And that's where we are with many boomer past times.  Sailing is another one of my past times - and that's a past time that has already experienced a very serious decline.  Even golf - golf was never my thing - is experiencing serious declines in the US.

So what do the younger folks do with their time?  I don't really know.  I think some of it goes to on-line social interactions.  My on-line social interactions are with those who share my hobbies, not general purpose.  Spectating at sports events seems to have a lot of young people.  And now gambling has gone big time to further encourage spectating at sports.  I'm guessing that spectating is temporary for most, that eventually the young will want to be participants rather than spectators.  And savers rather than gamblers.  But I could be wrong.  At some point, I would hope and expect the young to turn from spectating to creating, from talking to doing.  What they will choose isn't as important as making the transition to creating and doing.

That's the ultimate attraction of model railroading to me - creating and implementing a small representation of a dream world.

Fred W

....modeling foggy coastal Oregon in HO and HOn3, where it's always 1900....

 

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Posted by davidmurray on Saturday, December 31, 2022 10:36 AM

Sheldon:

You are right in what you posted.  The problem as I see it is finding rolling stock at comparable prices.  One or two locos works if you want it to.  Several/many pieces of rolling stock is needed.  

David Murray from Oshawa, Ontario Canada
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Posted by York1 on Saturday, December 31, 2022 10:56 AM

An old person's hobby?

I started my first layout when I retired.  I was too busy with career to spend much time on a hobby.  Once retired, I needed something to do -- especially in the winter.

I had no background with railroads, but I did like to see layouts at museums and malls at Christmas.  I decided to try it.

York1 John       

I asked my doctor if I gave up delicious food and all alcohol, would I live longer?  He said, "No, but it will seem longer."

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Posted by John-NYBW on Saturday, December 31, 2022 11:11 AM

ATLANTIC CENTRAL

Yes, John you are correct, 1968 to now, roughly 10 times total inflation.

And yes the hobby is no more expensive than it ever was, but it has changed, some for the better, some not.

We did enjoy a sweet spot in the late 90's and early 2000's where the hobby was highly "value added" with great product advancements, good availability (unlike now) and prices below the rate of inflation.

And it is that price correction now that leaves many, especially those newer to the hobby, or who have been away for a while, thinking it is more expensive.

Sheldon

 

I think you hit on the key phrase, "good availability". That is the law of supply and demand at work. When something is widely available, that will hold down prices. Manufacturers seem to have changed their business model with high end and not so high end items being sold on pre-order. That limits availability which is going to drive up prices. Supply chain issues also reduce availability. Inflation is what determines the value of the dollar but prices for specific commodities are going to fluctuate above or below the rate of inflation based on the law of supply and demand. Apparently there is still plenty of demand in the hobby which is going to be an upward influence on prices. 

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Posted by John-NYBW on Saturday, December 31, 2022 11:19 AM

davidmurray

Sheldon:

You are right in what you posted.  The problem as I see it is finding rolling stock at comparable prices.  One or two locos works if you want it to.  Several/many pieces of rolling stock is needed.  

 

It's been a few years since I added any Accurail rolling stock to my layout but my recollection is it was about $12 per car back then. I'm sure it has gone up since then. Probably somewhere between $15-20. That's still a very reasonable price for what is a good quality low end item. That would equate to $1.50 to $2.00 a car back in the 1960s. 

People just have to realize that inflation makes dollars worth less. That's why it takes more of them to get the items you want. The hobby isn't more expensive. Your dollars just aren't worth what they used to be. 

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Posted by richhotrain on Saturday, December 31, 2022 11:27 AM

John-NYBW

People just have to realize that inflation makes dollars worth less. That's why it takes more of them to get the items you want. The hobby isn't more expensive. Your dollars just aren't worth what they used to be.  

Uh Oh!

Rich

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Posted by John-NYBW on Saturday, December 31, 2022 11:37 AM

fwright

So I don't buy the "too expensive" excuse - it's used to justify the lack of "want to".  The lack of want to leads to the path of if I can't buy my dream layout ready to run, I'm just not going to do the hobby.  And that's where we are with many boomer past times.  Sailing is another one of my past times - and that's a past time that has already experienced a very serious decline.  Even golf - golf was never my thing - is experiencing serious declines in the US.

Nobody needs an excuse for the lack of "want to". If somebody doesn't want to get into model railroading, there is no reason that they should. They are free to choose the hobbies they want to participate in just as I have been all my life. 

As for golf, what we are seeing is a regression to the means in terms of participation. Beginning in the late 1990s, there was a golf boom driven in large part by the emergence of Tiger Woods. His popularity was greater than anything golf had seen since Arnold Palmer's heyday. I remember going to the driving range and seeing so many very young children being taught the game by their parents, many of whom I suspect had the unrealistic expectation that their kid could be the next protege if they started them early enough. 

It is no coincidence that the decline in the popularity of golf has coincided with the decline in Tiger Woods's career. It used to be said that Tiger Woods didn't drive the needle, he was the needle. There was a dramatic drop off in viewership in tournaments in which he was not playing on the weekends. In the middle of the last decade, it seemed his playing days might be over due to serious issues with his back. We were treated to a brief uptick when it seemed he had a rejuvenation in his career and was winning tournaments again but that ended with his car crash. Golf is like any other sports or entertainment venue. It needs stars and the current crop of stars just don't have near the juice Tiger did. That has resulted in a drop in participation as well. 

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Posted by ATLANTIC CENTRAL on Saturday, December 31, 2022 12:02 PM

John-NYBW

 

 
ATLANTIC CENTRAL

Yes, John you are correct, 1968 to now, roughly 10 times total inflation.

And yes the hobby is no more expensive than it ever was, but it has changed, some for the better, some not.

We did enjoy a sweet spot in the late 90's and early 2000's where the hobby was highly "value added" with great product advancements, good availability (unlike now) and prices below the rate of inflation.

And it is that price correction now that leaves many, especially those newer to the hobby, or who have been away for a while, thinking it is more expensive.

Sheldon

 

 

 

I think you hit on the key phrase, "good availability". That is the law of supply and demand at work. When something is widely available, that will hold down prices. Manufacturers seem to have changed their business model with high end and not so high end items being sold on pre-order. That limits availability which is going to drive up prices. Supply chain issues also reduce availability. Inflation is what determines the value of the dollar but prices for specific commodities are going to fluctuate above or below the rate of inflation based on the law of supply and demand. Apparently there is still plenty of demand in the hobby which is going to be an upward influence on prices. 

 

John, I have to take exception to one of your opinions here, because I have knowledge of the inner workings of this industry. 

Demand and competition does not hold down prices in this type of industry - because there is NO excess markup anywhere in the supply chain.

Even at its biggest level, this is a cottage industry. The only two things that control prices of NEW product is "cost to produce" and "minimum required return on investment".

In the 90's advancements in tool and die work, and injection molding, allowed massive advances in quality and detail with small increasess in production cost. Further made possible by low off shore labor costs.

Like Like and Bachmann were able to go from cheap trainset toys to premium model railroad manufacturers almost over night.

Sure they set MSRP prices based on the value added features, but large markups did not last long, the discounting to the real price happened pretty quick.

For nearly two decades the big boys, Walthers, Life Like, Bachmann, Atlas, Athearn and others took fullest advantage of the improved manufacturing and low costs - but not to make excessive markups, but rather to produce and sell dramaticly higher variety and volumes of product at the customary markup - which the baby boomers sucked up in record amounts.

The cost factors have adjusted......

And manufacturers and retailers in this business are working on the smallest margins ever in the history of this business.

I should likely leave it at that....

Sheldon

 

    

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Posted by John-NYBW on Saturday, December 31, 2022 12:47 PM

ATLANTIC CENTRAL

 

 
John-NYBW

 

 
ATLANTIC CENTRAL

Yes, John you are correct, 1968 to now, roughly 10 times total inflation.

And yes the hobby is no more expensive than it ever was, but it has changed, some for the better, some not.

We did enjoy a sweet spot in the late 90's and early 2000's where the hobby was highly "value added" with great product advancements, good availability (unlike now) and prices below the rate of inflation.

And it is that price correction now that leaves many, especially those newer to the hobby, or who have been away for a while, thinking it is more expensive.

Sheldon

 

 

 

I think you hit on the key phrase, "good availability". That is the law of supply and demand at work. When something is widely available, that will hold down prices. Manufacturers seem to have changed their business model with high end and not so high end items being sold on pre-order. That limits availability which is going to drive up prices. Supply chain issues also reduce availability. Inflation is what determines the value of the dollar but prices for specific commodities are going to fluctuate above or below the rate of inflation based on the law of supply and demand. Apparently there is still plenty of demand in the hobby which is going to be an upward influence on prices. 

 

 

 

John, I have to take exception to one of your opinions here, because I have knowledge of the inner workings of this industry. 

Demand and competition does not hold down prices in this type of industry - because there is NO excess markup anywhere in the supply chain.

Even at its biggest level, this is a cottage industry. The only two things that control prices of NEW product is "cost to produce" and "minimum required return on investment".

In the 90's advancements in tool and die work, and injection molding, allowed massive advances in quality and detail with small increasess in production cost. Further made possible by low off shore labor costs.

Like Like and Bachmann were able to go from cheap trainset toys to premium model railroad manufacturers almost over night.

Sure they set MSRP prices based on the value added features, but large markups did not last long, the discounting to the real price happened pretty quick.

For nearly two decades the big boys, Walthers, Life Like, Bachmann, Atlas, Athearn and others took fullest advantage of the improved manufacturing and low costs - but not to make excessive markups, but rather to produce and sell dramaticly higher variety and volumes of product at the customary markup - which the baby boomers sucked up in record amounts.

The cost factors have adjusted......

And manufacturers and retailers in this business are working on the smallest margins ever in the history of this business.

I should likely leave it at that....

Sheldon

 

 

I don't believe there is any such thing as excess mark up. Sellers are going to set their prices based on what they think buyers will be willing to pay. That price point is determined by the law of supply and demand. Why would we expect a seller to sell a product for $40 if they think buyers are willing to pay $50? That's the demand part of the equation. On the supply side, the more inventory a seller has, the lower he will set the price point because he doesn't make money off unsold inventory and storing it becomes and expense. 

Every year near the end of January, my LHS has a storewide 20% off sale with the exception of a few items. Having never run a business I'm not sure I understand this but I am guessing they have to pay tax on unsold inventory so they are trying to reduce it ahead of the assessment. As I buyer, if there is an item I want to buy, I have to decide whether to wait for the sale and risk having the item I wanted sold before that sale. There is such an item this year, but I don't think I'm going to wait on it. 

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Posted by ATLANTIC CENTRAL on Saturday, December 31, 2022 2:01 PM

John-NYBW

 

 
ATLANTIC CENTRAL

 

 
John-NYBW

 

 
ATLANTIC CENTRAL

Yes, John you are correct, 1968 to now, roughly 10 times total inflation.

And yes the hobby is no more expensive than it ever was, but it has changed, some for the better, some not.

We did enjoy a sweet spot in the late 90's and early 2000's where the hobby was highly "value added" with great product advancements, good availability (unlike now) and prices below the rate of inflation.

And it is that price correction now that leaves many, especially those newer to the hobby, or who have been away for a while, thinking it is more expensive.

Sheldon

 

 

 

I think you hit on the key phrase, "good availability". That is the law of supply and demand at work. When something is widely available, that will hold down prices. Manufacturers seem to have changed their business model with high end and not so high end items being sold on pre-order. That limits availability which is going to drive up prices. Supply chain issues also reduce availability. Inflation is what determines the value of the dollar but prices for specific commodities are going to fluctuate above or below the rate of inflation based on the law of supply and demand. Apparently there is still plenty of demand in the hobby which is going to be an upward influence on prices. 

 

 

 

John, I have to take exception to one of your opinions here, because I have knowledge of the inner workings of this industry. 

Demand and competition does not hold down prices in this type of industry - because there is NO excess markup anywhere in the supply chain.

Even at its biggest level, this is a cottage industry. The only two things that control prices of NEW product is "cost to produce" and "minimum required return on investment".

In the 90's advancements in tool and die work, and injection molding, allowed massive advances in quality and detail with small increasess in production cost. Further made possible by low off shore labor costs.

Like Like and Bachmann were able to go from cheap trainset toys to premium model railroad manufacturers almost over night.

Sure they set MSRP prices based on the value added features, but large markups did not last long, the discounting to the real price happened pretty quick.

For nearly two decades the big boys, Walthers, Life Like, Bachmann, Atlas, Athearn and others took fullest advantage of the improved manufacturing and low costs - but not to make excessive markups, but rather to produce and sell dramaticly higher variety and volumes of product at the customary markup - which the baby boomers sucked up in record amounts.

The cost factors have adjusted......

And manufacturers and retailers in this business are working on the smallest margins ever in the history of this business.

I should likely leave it at that....

Sheldon

 

 

 

 

I don't believe there is any such thing as excess mark up. Sellers are going to set their prices based on what they think buyers will be willing to pay. That price point is determined by the law of supply and demand. Why would we expect a seller to sell a product for $40 if they think buyers are willing to pay $50? That's the demand part of the equation. On the supply side, the more inventory a seller has, the lower he will set the price point because he doesn't make money off unsold inventory and storing it becomes and expense. 

Every year near the end of January, my LHS has a storewide 20% off sale with the exception of a few items. Having never run a business I'm not sure I understand this but I am guessing they have to pay tax on unsold inventory so they are trying to reduce it ahead of the assessment. As I buyer, if there is an item I want to buy, I have to decide whether to wait for the sale and risk having the item I wanted sold before that sale. There is such an item this year, but I don't think I'm going to wait on it. 

 

John, I like you, but you said it yourself, you have never run a business.

Your local hobby shop has a sale at 20% off to free up cash tied up in inventory that is not selling. Not to avoid taxes. Suppossed inventory taxes are different in every state and county, but don't really tax the inventory - not going in to that here or now.

If a business needs a 35% gross margin to survive, and his competitor only needs 30%, his competitor will sell for less to draw business from him.

Or, if the competitor has other advantages, he will sell at the same prices and make the extra profit.

But if you price your product too high, someone able to buy it at the same price  and willing to make less will undercut you - that is were supply and demand does come into this business.

Manufacturers in this business have a bottom price, the retail big boys, Model Train Stuff, Train World, etc, get the bottom price. Then they need to make at least 30-35%. 

That sets the minimum street prices for most products.

There is now, and always has been, people in this particular business who do not need to make a real profit or who have exceptionally low overhead, or both. They sell on the cheap to get business, some just to supply and fund their own activity in the hobby - many very ligit businesses on Ebay are these kinds of operations.

Manufacturers set retail prices that are used to calculate wholesale prices based on established "discount" percentages.  So if you are a local hobby shop and you buy from a distributor, you get one price. But if you can buy that same product in volume, you can buy it direct from the maufacturer for a much lower price. Then you can sell it for less and still make a good margin.

Prior to the 1970's, most model trains were sold at or near retail price by local shops that bought small volumes of product from regional distributors.

Discounting was rare typically never more than 15-20%.

I will not reveal what I know about current pricing structures, but I will discribe how it was back then.

A local hobby shop orders a locomotive with a $100 retail price from his regional distributor, the cost to the shop is $60. Giving the shop a 40% margin against his typically 30-35% overhead costs if he sells it at retail.

The distributor bought a case lot of those locomotives from the manufacturer at a discount of 60% off the retail price, or $40 per locomotive. as a warehouse operation their overhead is more like 25% against that 33% gross profit.

That manufacturer who sold the distributor the loco for $40 most likely had a cost to produce of about $20, or 1/5 of the retail price - before their 25% overhead and profit.

Now, if you are a big boy, and you can be a retailer with enough volume to buy direct from the manufecturer, you can buy those locos for $40 each. Now you can sell them for $80, make more profit in $ and % than the local hobby shop, and you are selling at a price that would put the local shop out of business if he matched your prices.

OR, you can sell for 35% off retail, and make the same % gross margin as the retail price shop and give him NO CHANCE of competing with you.

Nearly everything in this hobby is discounted today - you figure out the rest.

There is no "what the market will bear" pricing in this hobby. Lower prices mean higher volumes which they need to keep production costs down.

Volume is down, prices are up, margins and profits are bare minimum.

Sheldon 

 

 

    

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Posted by ATLANTIC CENTRAL on Saturday, December 31, 2022 2:15 PM

So John, one more thought. I started working in the hobby business at age 14. By age 20 I was a train department manager in a full line hobby shop.

So I have known my whole life, every time I bought a model train, at least roughly, what the manufacturer charged for it, and what the seller likely paid for it. 

And not once did I begrudge any of them their profits.

Sheldon

    

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Posted by DonRicardo on Sunday, January 1, 2023 6:54 AM

Profit, to a business, is akin to your pay check if you are working for some one else. Take away your paycheck, you are in the doldrums...ditto profits for a business.

If your business had employees, profits are what gives him his paycheck. I could never understand why some consider profit to ba a dirty word.

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Posted by John-NYBW on Sunday, January 1, 2023 8:01 AM

ATLANTIC CENTRAL

So John, one more thought. I started working in the hobby business at age 14. By age 20 I was a train department manager in a full line hobby shop.

So I have known my whole life, every time I bought a model train, at least roughly, what the manufacturer charged for it, and what the seller likely paid for it. 

And not once did I begrudge any of them their profits.

Sheldon

 

I've never begrudged anyone a profit either. I believe the free market will set fair prices. Businesses are in business to make money. They have the right to set their prices at whatever level they choose. They need to do that wisely to maximize their profits. If the set them too high, they won't sell enough. If they set them too low, their profit margins shrink. They need to find that sweet spot in the middle. 

Spending in this hobby is all discretionary. There has never been a piece of model railroading merchandise sold that somebody needed. That makes price gouging impossible. If you think someone has set their price too high for something you want, you aren't obligated to buy it. If you choose to pay the price, you are saying the item is worth what you are paying for it and therefore it is a fair price. The buyer has no reason to complain. 

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Posted by John-NYBW on Sunday, January 1, 2023 8:11 AM

DonRicardo

Profit, to a business, is akin to your pay check if you are working for some one else. Take away your paycheck, you are in the doldrums...ditto profits for a business.

If your business had employees, profits are what gives him his paycheck. I could never understand why some consider profit to ba a dirty word.

 

A few weeks ago I was discussing this with the guy who runs my favorite LHS. I brought up the Pawn Stars TV program. He said he watches it occasionally and gets a chuckle out of it. Sometimes they will bring in an outside appraiser who gives them an estimate of what an item is worth at retail. Let's say they appraise something at $2000. The seller will then expect the pawn shop to give them that much for their item, apparently oblivious to the fact that the shop needs to make money of the item. They also have overhead to pay for. Typically they will offer the seller 30-40% of what they think the item will sell for. Maybe a little more if they think the item will sell quickly. Maybe a little less if they think they are going to have to put money into the item in order to sell it. The difference between what the shop pays for it  and what they sell it for helps pay their overhead and the rest is their profit which is what they are in business for. 

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Posted by richhotrain on Sunday, January 1, 2023 9:05 AM

I blame dfdf1995 for reviving this oft-repeated topic after the thread appropriately lay dormant for 30 days. Nothing like setting off a firecracker in a crowded theater and then running back to the lobby and out the front door. ConfusedConfused

Rich

 

dfdf1995

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Posted by ATLANTIC CENTRAL on Sunday, January 1, 2023 9:52 AM

John-NYBW

 

 
ATLANTIC CENTRAL

So John, one more thought. I started working in the hobby business at age 14. By age 20 I was a train department manager in a full line hobby shop.

So I have known my whole life, every time I bought a model train, at least roughly, what the manufacturer charged for it, and what the seller likely paid for it. 

And not once did I begrudge any of them their profits.

Sheldon

 

 

 

I've never begrudged anyone a profit either. I believe the free market will set fair prices. Businesses are in business to make money. They have the right to set their prices at whatever level they choose. They need to do that wisely to maximize their profits. If the set them too high, they won't sell enough. If they set them too low, their profit margins shrink. They need to find that sweet spot in the middle. 

Spending in this hobby is all discretionary. There has never been a piece of model railroading merchandise sold that somebody needed. That makes price gouging impossible. If you think someone has set their price too high for something you want, you aren't obligated to buy it. If you choose to pay the price, you are saying the item is worth what you are paying for it and therefore it is a fair price. The buyer has no reason to complain. 

 

Exactly, we agree. I am just trying to be clear on the point that there is a bottom profitable price based on cost to produce. On that point the market does not set the price, the market decides if the item will even exist.

These manufacturers are not making $500 locomotives for $10 a piece. It is more like $100 or more. Margins are very slim, this what has driven the manufacturers to preoders.

I know from my own manufacturing ventures, if you are manufacturing/creating and selling direct, you price needs to be at least 3x the cost to produce. 

If you sell thru some sort of wholesale/retail distribution and someone else is selling to the customer, the final price needs to be more like 4-5x the cost to produce.

Model trains are not/and have never been (rarely anyway) produced in volumes that dramaticly reduce the cost to produce.

Back in the late 80's and early 90's when Bachmann and LifeLike introduced their improved product lines, they committed to very large production runs of product to reduce the cost to produce to its loweest possible level.

LifeLike in particular had deep pockets and figured they would just sit on the stuff until it sold. They had a big paid for warehouse to store it in.

Ultimately they decided it was not selling fast enough and they lowered prices and moved it out. 

And to this day you can go on Ebay and find 1990's Proto2000 locomotives that have never been out of the box. Some sitting on the shelves of modelers who bought more than they needed because of low prices, other sitting for years in the basements and warehouses dealers/speculators who bought it up at closeout prices.

Understand, LifeLike did not loose any money, but they did sell the last 10% or 20% of some of those early production runs at zero profit, just recovering their investment.

There is a lot of it in my train room, bought at 50% to 70% off the orignal MSRP.

Sheldon   

    

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Posted by rrebell on Sunday, January 1, 2023 11:24 AM

Then there are those who sold at a loss and desided to get out of the buisness, Ertl being a prime example. They are basically Tichy cars with bad wheels and bad paint job, I bought a bunch but mostly only kept the flat cars and repainted their decks, added wheels and a better break wheel.

  • Member since
    January 2009
  • From: Maryland
  • 12,865 posts
Posted by ATLANTIC CENTRAL on Sunday, January 1, 2023 11:55 AM

rrebell

Then there are those who sold at a loss and desided to get out of the buisness, Ertl being a prime example. They are basically Tichy cars with bad wheels and bad paint job, I bought a bunch but mostly only kept the flat cars and repainted their decks, added wheels and a better break wheel.

 

There will always be those liquidating inventory to close a business. The temporary prices they sell a limited amount of product for have no effect on the larger market. I bought two new in the box Spectrum 2-6-6-2's for $75.00 each because the seller just needed them gone. That means nothing in the overall market for that loco.

Sheldon

    

  • Member since
    January 2019
  • 2,560 posts
Posted by John-NYBW on Sunday, January 1, 2023 5:09 PM

ATLANTIC CENTRAL

 

And to this day you can go on Ebay and find 1990's Proto2000 locomotives that have never been out of the box. Some sitting on the shelves of modelers who bought more than they needed because of low prices, other sitting for years in the basements and warehouses dealers/speculators who bought it up at closeout prices.

 

It was about 15 years ago, maybe more, that my LHS had an undecorated P2K 2-8-4 on the shelf. I had my eye on it but the price was more that I was willing to pay. It was on the shelf a long time and gradually the price started to come down. I think it eventually reached a price of $220. This was shortly before the annual 20% off sale so I decided to wait. It was still available when the sale started so I grabbed it. I remember the guy at the counter asking the proprietor if the 20% would apply to this already discounted item. He said they (his partners) had talked about it and yes, they were willing to let it go for the deep discount. They probably regretted having bought it in the first place and were glad to get rid of it. I lettered it for my home road, added DCC and sound and now it's one of my favorite steamers. Lots of great detail and an excellent runner. 

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