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Rumors of the hobby's demise...

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Posted by flyboy14295 on Saturday, November 19, 2022 11:50 AM

I am just an average 31 year old.  When I was a kid, my father had a plywood O gauge setup in our basement.  He had signals, switches, some buildings and scenery.  A few trees here and there, all just on a painted green sheet of plywood.

Now that my wife and I are about to move into a home with a basement and far too much room for the both of us, I figured why not try my hand at the hobby.  I still have all of the O track and trains, but money being what it is nowadays, I am going to start an HO layout of my own.  I'll save the O setup for an around-the-tree during the holidays.  It's much easier to enjoy from afar.

I managed to find an old gent that was parting with his small layout and picked it up for a steal of a price.  It'll get me going for sure and will be fun for years to come.  I included some pictures of what I came across.

 

I'm just getting started in this hobby, it sure isn't dead for me!

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Posted by The Milwaukee Road Warrior on Sunday, November 20, 2022 8:32 AM

Lots of interesting comments here.  

Final notes from me: my dad and I were talking to one of the exhibitors who has been to many past Trainfests: she noted that the exhibition hall has a removable wall that closed off one-quarter of the room.  Apparently the new folks running the show weren't sure what the turnout would be and played it conservative by only using 75% of the hall space.  She said that based on what she'd seen last weekend she had no doubts that next year the entire floor would be used.

Also, the neatest thing for me as a dad was giving my 10 year old first dibs on our first dcc locomotive.  As much as I wanted to spring for a Milwaukee Road Walthers Proto F7 A/B kit, I let him decide what he wanted.  

Despite all of my immersion in the Milwaukee Road, he picked a Southern Pacific SD-45 Rivet Counter from Scale Trains.  He really likes SP and Santa Fe *sigh*.  Oh well!  

Andy

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Posted by John-NYBW on Wednesday, November 23, 2022 7:52 AM

I got back into the hobby in 1977 when I got my first apartment with a spare bedroom for a small layout. Ever since then I have been reading periodically about the hobby's demise. If it is dying, it has to be the slowest death on record. 

I'm not to concerned about it. I'll turn 71 in five days and have no doubt the hobby will survive a lot longer than I will. 

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Posted by John-NYBW on Wednesday, November 23, 2022 8:02 AM

wjstix

It will level off; production is picking up, inflation is already declining. My guess is the hobby (and civilization) will survive just fine.

 

It always has. I got back into the hobby in the late 1970s when stagflation became a word. Since then we have gone through multiple boom-and-bust cycles. The tech fueled bull market of the 1990s followed by the bubble bursting after 2000. We had the too-big-to-fail financial crisis later in the decade and then the pandemic. 

I'm an avid golfer and as any golfer can tell you, when things are going good, you know it's going to end and when things are going bad, you think it's never going to end. So it is with the economy. All things, both good and bad, eventually come to an end. Enjoy the good times when you can and persevere through the bad times.

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Posted by tstage on Wednesday, November 23, 2022 8:57 AM

The Milwaukee Road Warrior
Also, the neatest thing for me as a dad was giving my 10 year old first dibs on our first dcc locomotive.  As much as I wanted to spring for a Milwaukee Road Walthers Proto F7 A/B kit, I let him decide what he wanted.  

Despite all of my immersion in the Milwaukee Road, he picked a Southern Pacific SD-45 Rivet Counter from Scale Trains.  He really likes SP and Santa Fe *sigh*.  Oh well!

There's still time to cut him out of your will, Andy. Smile, Wink & Grin

Tom

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Time...It marches on...without ever turning around to see if anyone is even keeping in step.

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Posted by Howard Zane on Wednesday, November 23, 2022 9:04 AM

If it moves be it rail, sea, air, road, or whatever, someone will want to build a model of it. This started way long ago and will continue on most likely forever. The biggest problem we face is the demise of so many train and hobby shops....but things change: the internet and shows now are parmount for continuamce of our hobby.

In a New England antique and stuff store years back, I found a neat model of a covered wagon most likely built in the mid-19th century. It was quite well done.

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Posted by John-NYBW on Wednesday, November 23, 2022 10:37 AM

chipset35

I wonder how many people with start with N Scale versus the larger scales just based on price?

 
I always chuckle when I read comments like this. I first got introduced to HO in the early 1960s after previous experiences with Lionel and American Flyer. I don't know when N was introduced but I was unaware of it back then. HO was the small scale then. I still think of it as such. I would never want to go smaller. I'm too old to switch scales now, but if I did so, I'd move up to S scale which in my mind is a medium sized scale. O and G are the large scales. 
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Posted by wjstix on Wednesday, November 23, 2022 11:06 AM

One factor in the appearance of the hobby dying is the "Bowling Alone" factor. "Bowling Alone" was a book that came out a while back, dealing with how younger people aren't "joiners" like their parents or grandparents were. The author used the example of bowling - more people go bowling each year than ever before, but they aren't joining leagues. Young folks don't want to commit to being somewhere doing something for 33 weeks straight, they just want to go once or twice a month with their friends. Same holds true for many societies, fraternal organizations etc.

I'm sure there's something similar in railroading. I belong to several railroad historical societys; each time they report on the membership, it's gone down. Conventions have fewer and fewer people who don't have gray hair. I believe NMRA membership has fallen considerably since I first joined in the 1980s. Same with magazine subscriptions. Hobby shops close because people are buying model railroad products, but doing it online rather than in person. 

Yet I suspect there are many folks out there who are model railroaders, but who just aren't counted because they aren't members of anything or magazine subscribers. They get their equipment and information online. They are into areas that maybe aren't considered "mainstream" model railroading - garden railroading, three-rail scale, etc. 

 

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Posted by Jetrock on Wednesday, November 23, 2022 11:41 AM

wjstix

One factor in the appearance of the hobby dying is the "Bowling Alone" factor. "Bowling Alone" was a book that came out a while back, dealing with how younger people aren't "joiners" like their parents or grandparents were. The author used the example of bowling - more people go bowling each year than ever before, but they aren't joining leagues. Young folks don't want to commit to being somewhere doing something for 33 weeks straight, they just want to go once or twice a month with their friends. Same holds true for many societies, fraternal organizations etc.

I'm sure there's something similar in railroading. I belong to several railroad historical societys; each time they report on the membership, it's gone down. Conventions have fewer and fewer people who don't have gray hair. I believe NMRA membership has fallen considerably since I first joined in the 1980s. Same with magazine subscriptions. Hobby shops close because people are buying model railroad products, but doing it online rather than in person. 

Yet I suspect there are many folks out there who are model railroaders, but who just aren't counted because they aren't members of anything or magazine subscribers. They get their equipment and information online. They are into areas that maybe aren't considered "mainstream" model railroading - garden railroading, three-rail scale, etc. 

The point of "Bowling Alone" wasn't blaming those changes on young people not being "joiners" so much that our society is structured more around individual vs. group activity by its arrangement, whether geographic (spread-out auto suburbs where people deliberately drive to things vs. denser walking neighborhoods where people interact casually on the street) or informational (TV & Internet vs. movie theaters & public gathering spaces) resulting in cultural change just because there are fewer opportunities to bowl (or model railroad) with a group, and more challenges to getting there. But as you point out, while memberships in railroad historical societies and club layouts, magazine subscriptions, and convention attendance are down, participation on Internet & social media forums (like this one) are up, because people (especially people who don't have gray hair yet) communicate the same sort of information in different ways! So they're (we're) still model railroaders, they (we) just gather in different ways. And for many of us, the appeal of model railroading was that it's generally a solitary hobby. Meanwhile, even though my generation (Generation X) weren't joiners, subsequent generations like the Millennials and GenZ are avid joiners and socializers; they just do it differently but with no less enthusiasm.

 

The demise of model railroading is often overblown, in part because people tend to drop out of the hobby in their late teens through early thirties--pursuing careers, education, romance, and more exciting forms of recreation tend to take over our brains at that point in our lives. Then when we start to slow down a bit, we often rediscover our old hobbies, whether in our mid-thirties or after retirement. That's what happened with me--and while I did join a couple of railroad museums and visited some club layouts, I didn't join any railroad historical societies or the NMRA, or get a MR subscription--I joined this forum (where I have received some excellent advice over the past nearly 20 years!) and others like it. It's not a one-way relationship, either--the forums become an informal club, and we still have the informal bull sessions that would have taken place at the hobby shop counter or the lounge at a model railroad club.

 

I definitely don't take the claims that model railroading is fading because of a troubled economy--model railroading emerged as an adult hobby during the Great Depression! The growing interest in micro layouts also addresses concerns about the lack of space for a layout; another nice thing about the Internet is that people can see how Japanese and European hobbyists have found room for model railroads in homes much smaller than a typical American apartment, let alone a house (which average about twice as large as they were in the 1950s!) and can also communicate directly with them, share advice and ideas. And advice on how to be a model railroader on a budget is always a favorite topic of discussion! In fact, I think part of why club layouts became popular in the 1930s-50s was because a lot of model railroaders didn't have room for a layout (especially when O was still the most popular scale) and a club was the only way to have a large and complex layout at all.

 

The advances of technology also help ensure the relevance of the hobby; when I got back into the hobby in 2003 I was amazed by how things like inkjet printers and laser-cut kits had dramatically changed scratchbuilding, but things like ubiquitous 3D printing and cheap/simple DCC, still kind of in their infancy then, are now everywhere. When chatting with a young friend about model railroading and trying to explain DCC, I just said "it's like having an Arduino microcontroller in your trains" and a light went on for him! This is a hobby for hackers, dating back to the origin of the term (look up the MIT Tech Model Railroad Club), that attracts people who want to use technology in new and creative ways, not necessarily to make a buck, but because it's fun!

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Posted by wjstix on Wednesday, November 23, 2022 4:00 PM

Jetrock
The point of "Bowling Alone" wasn't blaming those changes on young people not being "joiners"

Right, I didn't say the author 'blamed' them, simply that people born in the last 30 years or so don't join organizations and make commitments the way prior generations did. Today it even shows up in things like younger folks preferring to rent rather than own, and to take part in the "gig ecomony" rather than have a career job, so they can stay more flexible to change their life if they should choose to.

I suppose in model railroading, technology has something to do with it - beyond the internet. When the NMRA started for example, it was (as I understand it) primarily started by a coming together of several model railroad clubs. In fact, I guess most of the early NMRA conventions were hosted by specific clubs. In the 1930s O scale was king, so clubs were much more necessary. Not many folks then (or now) have room to build a large O scale layout with 6-foot radius curves and such, so a large area was needed. Plus back then even kits needed things like a drill press to build, which a club could more easily afford than an individual modeller. As smaller scales, "shake the box" kits, and RTR equipment came along, it became easier to build a substantial home layout by yourself. 

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Posted by John-NYBW on Thursday, November 24, 2022 8:37 AM

wjstix

 

 
Jetrock
The point of "Bowling Alone" wasn't blaming those changes on young people not being "joiners"

 

Right, I didn't say the author 'blamed' them, simply that people born in the last 30 years or so don't join organizations and make commitments the way prior generations did. Today it even shows up in things like younger folks preferring to rent rather than own, and to take part in the "gig ecomony" rather than have a career job, so they can stay more flexible to change their life if they should choose to.

After I had already paid off the mortgage on my first house, I learned something interesting from a financial planner. When people buy a house, they often only compare their mortgage payment to the rent payment. They fail to take into consideration additional expenses such as upkeep and insurance. He said that if a renter were to invest the difference between their rent payment and the true cost of owning a home, within ten years they would probably have enough to buy a similar house and pay cash for it. From a financial standpoint, renting does make sense. There are, of course, other reasons for wanting to own beyond the financial considerations. 

I suppose in model railroading, technology has something to do with it - beyond the internet. When the NMRA started for example, it was (as I understand it) primarily started by a coming together of several model railroad clubs. In fact, I guess most of the early NMRA conventions were hosted by specific clubs. In the 1930s O scale was king, so clubs were much more necessary. Not many folks then (or now) have room to build a large O scale layout with 6-foot radius curves and such, so a large area was needed. Plus back then even kits needed things like a drill press to build, which a club could more easily afford than an individual modeller. As smaller scales, "shake the box" kits, and RTR equipment came along, it became easier to build a substantial home layout by yourself. 

 

I never cease to be amazed at some of the great layouts that were built in the 1950s and 1960s before modelers had all the advantages we have now. I am a proponent of taking advantage of RTR and prebuilt structures as a time saver. If I could afford it, I would have my layout professionally build to my design specifications. For the most part, I don't enjoy layout building and take advantage of as many shortcuts as I can afford. 

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Posted by tuilockie on Thursday, November 24, 2022 8:42 PM

Prior to returning to the hobby I thought the hobby was dying. Several years after my return I think the hobby is doing quite well.

I model trains from the U.S, U.K, Europe and Australia. In each case I am seeing increasing numbers of products entering the market. Many of them expensive yet they are selling.  The second hand market seems to be going like gang busters also.

So overall I would say the hobby is doing rather well at the moment. Now, as it looks like we are about to enter a global recession (This seems to be the talk on several different forums I am in both the U.S and overseas) it will be worth watching how the hobby fairs. I suspect it will survive and come out the other side okay.

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Posted by John-NYBW on Friday, November 25, 2022 3:42 PM

I think what we see in this hobby is a lot of turnover. Both manufacturers and retailers come and go. There is also good deal of consolidation. We see fewer LHS but a good reason for that is the advent of online retailers. We used to have mail order retailers but it is so much more convenient to go online and with a few clicks have your order in. There are also a lot more choices of sellers online than there was with the old snail mail sellers. With ebay, there are a lot of small time sellers dealing in just a few products. 

With the manufacturers, we see companies going out of business only to be replaced by new ones. I have seen no drop off in the products available to us than 30 or 40 years ago. If anything, we have greater choices than ever and better products to boot. Let's not go down the this-hobby-has-gotten-so-expensive rabbit hole. If you adjust for inflation, it's no more expensive now than it has been in the past. 

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Posted by caldreamer on Sunday, November 27, 2022 1:46 PM

Andy and all:

  To quote Mark Twain. "The reports of my demise are greatly exagerated."

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Posted by tstage on Sunday, November 27, 2022 10:31 PM

Any chance of getting this back on topic, fellas?  Otherwise, I'm going to close shop...

Thanks,

Tom

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Time...It marches on...without ever turning around to see if anyone is even keeping in step.

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Posted by thomas81z on Monday, November 28, 2022 7:04 PM

SeeYou190
when i was still the " train repair guy " at caloosa trains & hobbies we had a big slot car track at the other end of the building & sadly it just gathered dust & eventually the owner took it down.

 

 
wjstix
Ya if you weren't around in the sixties, it's hard to imagine now how popular slot cars were

 

Around 2004-2008 I was racing 1/25 slot cars with my girls.

There were probably a dozen world class 1/25 scale road racing eight lane slot car tracks in Florida back then.

Now I do not know of a single one.

-Kevin

 

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Posted by HO-Velo on Monday, November 28, 2022 9:06 PM

Summer of 2011 and I was standing in a long line waiting to enter the NMRA convention show in Sacramento.  A woman behind me said to her significant other, "judging by all the gray hair in this line I'd say your hobby is dying."  Fall of 2022, looks to me like the hobby is still alive, regardless of how much gray hair.   

Regards, Peter

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Posted by John-NYBW on Tuesday, November 29, 2022 9:08 AM

HO-Velo

Summer of 2011 and I was standing in a long line waiting to enter the NMRA convention show in Sacramento.  A woman behind me said to her significant other, "judging by all the gray hair in this line I'd say your hobby is dying."  Fall of 2022, looks to me like the hobby is still alive, regardless of how much gray hair.   

Regards, Peter

 

I know I have a lot more gray hair than I did in 2011. I went to renew my driver's license last week and when the clerk asked me for hair color, I said brown without giving it a thought. She then gave me a strange look and then said, "Well, OK, I guess". 

As for the hobby, I see no indication its demise is near. I'm sure it will outlive me. I'm not worried about its fate after that. 

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Posted by CNR378 on Tuesday, November 29, 2022 1:13 PM

The hobby was dying when I started in it back in the mid 70's.

Peter

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Posted by Billwiz on Tuesday, November 29, 2022 7:48 PM

For years I have gone to train shows seeing people of all ages.  Little kids loving the trains, fathers and sons (and yes, mothers and daughters) looking at layouts, buying lots of stuff.  At one church I pastored, we had an annual Christmas event centered around trains and it was well attended, with people of all ages loving the trains.  

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Posted by MidlandMike on Wednesday, November 30, 2022 7:55 PM

Looks like the thread has been unlocked.  Thanks, now back on topic.

I think youth must still be coming into the hobby, as I see the Lionel 2022 catalog has Thomas Tank Engine, Harry Potter, and several sets based on multiple Disney movies.  They have also had these in the past, so I am sure they must be selling to someone.

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Posted by rrebell on Thursday, December 1, 2022 8:37 AM

People are still coming into this hobby and at a faster rate than before but less percentage of population by alot. Also a big change is a lot of offshoots for lack of a better word like Lego trains. The market is getting watered down with too many directions to go. I mean there have always been options but the choices have greatly ballooned and the choices from the get go about detail are far greater for the inital purchace, there have always been rivit counter cars but rairly could you just buy them from a manufactuer RTR.

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Posted by nealknows on Thursday, December 1, 2022 9:20 AM

Last weekend I was selling (I'm a vendor) at the Greenberg show in Edison, NJ. Saturday is the day you get the modelers who are serious, for the most part, about the hobby. Sunday you get folks who couldn't come Saturday plus people who are out for the day and need to entertain their kids or themselves. There were lots of young people (kids, teenagers) who were either with parents or other modelers. If you try to hear some of the conversations as they stand by a table or next to them, you can tell they're into the hobby. That's a good sign. If you look at the modular train setups at shows, you can see the 'younger generation' enjoying the hobby. Some were using their phones to control trains. Nothing wrong with that as the hobby has evolved into modern times. 

The hobby, IMO won't go away any time soon..

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Posted by Doughless on Thursday, December 1, 2022 10:14 AM

nealknows

Last weekend I was selling (I'm a vendor) at the Greenberg show in Edison, NJ. Saturday is the day you get the modelers who are serious, for the most part, about the hobby. Sunday you get folks who couldn't come Saturday plus people who are out for the day and need to entertain their kids or themselves. There were lots of young people (kids, teenagers) who were either with parents or other modelers. If you try to hear some of the conversations as they stand by a table or next to them, you can tell they're into the hobby. That's a good sign. If you look at the modular train setups at shows, you can see the 'younger generation' enjoying the hobby. Some were using their phones to control trains. Nothing wrong with that as the hobby has evolved into modern times. 

The hobby, IMO won't go away any time soon..

 

I'll just agree again.  There are two big shows (only two) in the ATL metro area and there are plenty of teenagers and 20 somethings asking questions about technical things as if they are knowledgeable and want to know more.  I hadn't seen that type of an attendee 10 years ago when I used to go to the frequent shows we had in Indy.  Most of us were the graying hair guys then.

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Posted by dfdf1995 on Friday, December 30, 2022 9:04 PM

When ALLIED Trains I'm Los Angeles went out of business, the former owner said "model railroading is a dying hobby". IMHO, it's not a natural death but suicide. Example: this month's Bachmann as for a $50 poultry car!

No one can doubt that DCC and sound are great advances (I wouldn't have either on my layout) but the very great increases in prices have killed this hobby among young people. In a recent reply to a letter from a young hobbiest, MR suggested eBay as a way to purchase inexpensive used hobby materials. No one who uses eBay would agree with the inexpensive bit. Sellers often ask for a premium of well over what these used pieces cost new. For example, Athearn and Roundhouse "blue box" style kits which cost $3 retail are selling for $13-17. The reality is that model railroading is temporarily benefiting from the wealth of baby-boomers like myself who became "accidental" millionaires and some in the next age cohort. It's very, very difficult for a kid or a young adult to start out in the hobby anymore. Yes we all know anecdotes about some kid who has done it successfully but the mass appeal and means have been destroyed. So the hobby will become the preserve of a limited group able to afford $300 locomotives and $40 cars. ALL HOBBIES are in decline as people engage in more and more passive entertainment. Model railroading is ESPECIALLY vulnerable because it has become so sophisticated and therefore expensive. There will always be a hard core of modelers but, long term, the prognosis is stagnation then decline. How many stamp collectors do you know?  How many woodworkers? 

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Posted by rrebell on Saturday, December 31, 2022 9:01 AM

dfdf1995

When ALLIED Trains I'm Los Angeles went out of business, the former owner said "model railroading is a dying hobby". IMHO, it's not a natural death but suicide. Example: this month's Bachmann as for a $50 poultry car!

No one can doubt that DCC and sound are great advances (I wouldn't have either on my layout) but the very great increases in prices have killed this hobby among young people. In a recent reply to a letter from a young hobbiest, MR suggested eBay as a way to purchase inexpensive used hobby materials. No one who uses eBay would agree with the inexpensive bit. Sellers often ask for a premium of well over what these used pieces cost new. For example, Athearn and Roundhouse "blue box" style kits which cost $3 retail are selling for $13-17. The reality is that model railroading is temporarily benefiting from the wealth of baby-boomers like myself who became "accidental" millionaires and some in the next age cohort. It's very, very difficult for a kid or a young adult to start out in the hobby anymore. Yes we all know anecdotes about some kid who has done it successfully but the mass appeal and means have been destroyed. So the hobby will become the preserve of a limited group able to afford $300 locomotives and $40 cars. ALL HOBBIES are in decline as people engage in more and more passive entertainment. Model railroading is ESPECIALLY vulnerable because it has become so sophisticated and therefore expensive. There will always be a hard core of modelers but, long term, the prognosis is stagnation then decline. How many stamp collectors do you know?  How many woodworkers? 

 

Well if you want to pay retail, thats on you. I usually buy for cheap on ebay but lately the deals from B&M are too good to beleive. Got a pair of NW2's from Walthers, DCC and sound for $145 each, used to be a realy good deal was a Kato for $50 used with no DCC or sound around 15 years ago for an NW2. You need to shop around or pay retail, choice is up to you. I bottom feed on everything which started when I was young and could not afford anything. 

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Posted by ATLANTIC CENTRAL on Saturday, December 31, 2022 9:30 AM

rrebell

 

 
dfdf1995

When ALLIED Trains I'm Los Angeles went out of business, the former owner said "model railroading is a dying hobby". IMHO, it's not a natural death but suicide. Example: this month's Bachmann as for a $50 poultry car!

No one can doubt that DCC and sound are great advances (I wouldn't have either on my layout) but the very great increases in prices have killed this hobby among young people. In a recent reply to a letter from a young hobbiest, MR suggested eBay as a way to purchase inexpensive used hobby materials. No one who uses eBay would agree with the inexpensive bit. Sellers often ask for a premium of well over what these used pieces cost new. For example, Athearn and Roundhouse "blue box" style kits which cost $3 retail are selling for $13-17. The reality is that model railroading is temporarily benefiting from the wealth of baby-boomers like myself who became "accidental" millionaires and some in the next age cohort. It's very, very difficult for a kid or a young adult to start out in the hobby anymore. Yes we all know anecdotes about some kid who has done it successfully but the mass appeal and means have been destroyed. So the hobby will become the preserve of a limited group able to afford $300 locomotives and $40 cars. ALL HOBBIES are in decline as people engage in more and more passive entertainment. Model railroading is ESPECIALLY vulnerable because it has become so sophisticated and therefore expensive. There will always be a hard core of modelers but, long term, the prognosis is stagnation then decline. How many stamp collectors do you know?  How many woodworkers? 

 

 

 

Well if you want to pay retail, thats on you. I usually buy for cheap on ebay but lately the deals from B&M are too good to beleive. Got a pair of NW2's from Walthers, DCC and sound for $145 each, used to be a realy good deal was a Kato for $50 used with no DCC or sound around 15 years ago for an NW2. You need to shop around or pay retail, choice is up to you. I bottom feed on everything which started when I was young and could not afford anything. 

 

 

????? I'm puzzeled. He did not say ONE WORD about paying retail?

Even with heavy discounting, there are plenty of "street price" $300 locomotives and $40 pieces of rolling stock.

Not saying I agree or completely disagree with his specific complaint, just saying he said nothing about paying retail. 

Prices depend on what you want to model more than any other factor.

Dieing or not, the hobby has changed - dramaticly. And not completely for the better in my view......

Sheldon

    

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Posted by ATLANTIC CENTRAL on Saturday, December 31, 2022 9:38 AM

dfdf1995

When ALLIED Trains I'm Los Angeles went out of business, the former owner said "model railroading is a dying hobby". IMHO, it's not a natural death but suicide. Example: this month's Bachmann as for a $50 poultry car!

No one can doubt that DCC and sound are great advances (I wouldn't have either on my layout) but the very great increases in prices have killed this hobby among young people. In a recent reply to a letter from a young hobbiest, MR suggested eBay as a way to purchase inexpensive used hobby materials. No one who uses eBay would agree with the inexpensive bit. Sellers often ask for a premium of well over what these used pieces cost new. For example, Athearn and Roundhouse "blue box" style kits which cost $3 retail are selling for $13-17. The reality is that model railroading is temporarily benefiting from the wealth of baby-boomers like myself who became "accidental" millionaires and some in the next age cohort. It's very, very difficult for a kid or a young adult to start out in the hobby anymore. Yes we all know anecdotes about some kid who has done it successfully but the mass appeal and means have been destroyed. So the hobby will become the preserve of a limited group able to afford $300 locomotives and $40 cars. ALL HOBBIES are in decline as people engage in more and more passive entertainment. Model railroading is ESPECIALLY vulnerable because it has become so sophisticated and therefore expensive. There will always be a hard core of modelers but, long term, the prognosis is stagnation then decline. How many stamp collectors do you know?  How many woodworkers? 

 

I don't have the time or energy to really get into this discussion, and I likely agree with some of your points (I managed a hobby shop train department in the late 70's/early 80's), but the real price of the Bachmann car is $30 - they will be widely available at that price. And adjust to the rate of inflation that is $3.50 in 1968 money.

Sheldon 

    

  • Member since
    August 2022
  • From: New England (Cape Cod)
  • 128 posts
Posted by DonRicardo on Saturday, December 31, 2022 9:52 AM

I purchased two new n scale Bachman GP-40s for 75.00/ea from my local hobby store, DC, then purchsed two TCS decoders for $33.00 each, installed the decoders and now have two DCC locomotives for about $220.00.

The Bachmans are not top of the line locos, but are decent looking and run very well, much better than the old Bachmans. And are much quieter!

I purchase my freight rolling stock on ebay, for about $15.00 per car, with magnetic couplers...do not purchase any with the old rapido couplers. It isn't hard to improve them with upgrades.

I obtain building plans from companies such as www.Scale Model Plans.com, and make cardstock buildings. (I also purchased on ebay a rotary paper cutter for $18.00 that is a great help in doing card stock buildings) The card stocks do not have that plasticy look, and I trim the doors and windows with strips cut on the rotary cutter. That eliminates the "flat" look of cardstock.

These are easily adjustable to fit your layout too.

I make my own trees from weed stocks found in the back yard and ground foam from the hobby store.

It can be an expensive hobby, but there are myriad ways to lower that expense. Perhaps the best way to keep this hobby going is to explain that to the newer generations.

  • Member since
    January 2019
  • 2,560 posts
Posted by John-NYBW on Saturday, December 31, 2022 10:28 AM

ATLANTIC CENTRAL

I don't have the time or energy to really get into this discussion, and I likely agree with some of your points (I managed a hobby shop train department in the late 70's/early 80's), but the real price of the Bachmann car is $30 - there will be widely available at that price. And adjust to the real rate of inflation (not the BS the government feeds us) that is $3 in 1968 money.

Sheldon 

 

I got my first real job at McDonald's in 1968 and I use the prices of the various items as a benchmark for inflation. Hamburgers were 20 cents. Cheeseburgers 25 cents. The fairly new Big Mac was 49 cents. Filet-o-fish was 30 cents. French fries 18 cents. A small Coke back then was 12 oz. and cost 10 cents. The large (16 oz.) Coke was 15 cents.

I checked the current McDonald's menu online to compare to the 1968 prices. The Big Mac is almost exactly 10 times higher now ($4.89) and that seems to be about the average. A small Coke is $1, also 10 times. The hamburger costs 8 times as much and the cheeseburger 7 times as much. The one that is really more expensive is the Filet-o-fish at 15 times the 1968 price although during their Lent special, you'll probably be able to get two for $6 which is in line with the 1968 price. 

I got my first car in 1969 and as I recall, gasoline fluctuated between high 20s to low 30s cents per gallon which in my area is about 1/10 of what it is at now. 

My very unscientific approach tells me the 2023 dollar is worth about 1/10 of what it was in the late 1960s. How does that relate to the hobby. Since there was no DCC back then the only comparison is to DC locos. Browsing the Walthers website for DC diesels shows most to be in the $150-200 MSRP range with quite a few specials at $120. My recollection is prices for the same in the late 1960s would be about 1/10 those prices. 

The short answer is the hobby is not getting more expensive when one adjusts for inflation. We do have higher end DCC/Sound locomotives available now and they are more expensive as one would expect but nobody is required to opt for the higher end. The loco you would have paid $15 for in 1968 will now cost you $150. Go figure. 

PS. I started my job at McDonald's at $1.15 an hour. If my rough inflation calculation is correct, that would equate to $11.50 an hour today. I'm guessing that is close to what they are paying new employees now. 

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